職位空缺的理論回顧數(shù)據(jù)測量及決定因素-來自勞動力需求角度

職位空缺分布特征及其決定因素的實證研究

宣講人:唐鑛2006-12-18四項內(nèi)容:我做了什么研究工作；我為什么要做這項研究；我是如何做這項研究的；本項研究的不足及以后的研究計劃。我做了什么研究工作應(yīng)用現(xiàn)代計量經(jīng)濟學(xué)的研究方法,對北京地區(qū)的調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)進行了實證分析,得出了北京版本的職位空缺分布特征及其決定因素的經(jīng)驗結(jié)論。我為什么要做這項研究我國的就業(yè)測量制度不完善，勞動力市場的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)嚴(yán)重失真；我國的勞動力需求研究嚴(yán)重缺失，對勞動力需求測量研究更是薄弱蔡日方DUNLOP；我是如何做這項研究的(1)關(guān)于職位空缺持續(xù)時間文獻:Elizabethj.Cunmingham關(guān)于職位空缺持續(xù)時間;Anterfarm;關(guān)于職位空缺和職位空缺率文獻:

HolzerHolzer;MorissetteandXueLinZhang;AndyDickerson

職位空缺數(shù)據(jù)收集和測量我是如何做這項研究的(2)數(shù)據(jù)收集職位空缺

d5.2006年是否有新增人員需求.1.有新增人員需求;2.無需求;z1.

需招用的職位及空缺數(shù)量-------.

職位空缺率

v=V/(E+V)數(shù)據(jù)處理和統(tǒng)計描述:按照雇傭人數(shù)分組后各個規(guī)模組內(nèi)的機構(gòu)個數(shù)以及各個規(guī)模組的雇傭人數(shù)規(guī)模頻數(shù)百分比累積百分比雇傭人數(shù)百分比累積百分比均值1-30148.708.702500.230.2317.8631-2008150.3159.0181957.67.83101.17201-5003219.8878.89100749.3417.17314.81501--10001811.1890.071311012.1629.33728.331001---169.941007619570.671004762.18total161100

107824100

161107824

111

機構(gòu)數(shù)(d5=all)雇傭人數(shù)(d5=all)存在空缺機構(gòu)比例存在空缺機構(gòu)的有效職位總數(shù)占總有效職位的比例條件職位空缺率無條件職位空缺率單位分布率雇用人數(shù)分布率空缺職位分布率總計1611078240.77640.93290.04130.03851.00001.00001.0000性質(zhì)161107824

111機關(guān)1120090.90910.99050.05100.05060.06830.01860.0248事業(yè)30310350.83330.97690.04250.04150.18630.28780.3113企業(yè)120747800.75000.91300.04050.03690.74530.69350.6639規(guī)模161107824

1111－30142500.42860.37220.16160.06020.08700.00230.003731－2008385950.75900.86140.11960.10300.51550.07970.2285201－5003096740.83330.84190.05630.04740.18630.08970.1113500－100018131100.88890.91080.04660.04240.11180.12160.13451000－16761950.93750.95920.03000.02870.09940.70670.5220景氣度161107824

111持平56304350.83930.97550.03770.03670.34780.28230.2688看漲62548820.98390.99970.04120.04120.38510.50900.5456看跌43225070.39530.71140.04840.03440.26710.20870.1856流動率（0，6%）42346760.57140.85110.03420.02910.26090.32160.2405[6％，11%）38391430.73680.96330.03640.03500.23600.36300.3289[11%,21%]30245180.83330.99270.03450.03420.18630.22740.2012[21％,41%]2468470.91670.92930.05930.05510.14910.06350.0924【41%，～】2726400.96300.99500.18410.18320.16770.02450.1370按單位規(guī)模區(qū)分的職位空缺數(shù)與職位空缺率

員工人數(shù)空缺數(shù)1-3031-200201-500501--10001001---合計0820521361-5624641416-2002314434421-500131352250-0345618total1483301816161有空缺的機構(gòu)比例0.42860.75900.83330.88890.9375

條件空缺均值2.666715.666719.2436.3125150.3333

條件空缺率均值0.16160.11960.05630.04660.0300

無條件空缺率均值0.06020.10300.04740.04240.0287

所有調(diào)查樣本職位空缺率差距水平的類別分解分析(d5=all)

所有調(diào)查樣本機構(gòu)（obs=161）類別泰爾指數(shù)百分比組內(nèi)貢獻率組間貢獻率機構(gòu)性質(zhì)0.46236100.000.4275292.460.034847.53機構(gòu)規(guī)模0.46236100.000.3450374.620.1173325.38機構(gòu)景氣度0.46236100.000.4563198.690.006051.31員工流動率0.46236100.000.3101867.080.1521832.91行業(yè)0.46236100.000.4317193.370.030656.63我是如何做這項研究的(3)計量模型:兩階段Tobit模型（two-stageTobitprocedure）P(Vi>0)=Φ(∑β1jXij)(1)E(vi|vi>0)=∑β2jXij(2)

〆V/〆Xj=〆(p(v>0)*E(v|v>0))/〆Xj=β1j*Φ(∑β1jXj)*E(v|v>0)+β2j*p(v>0)(3)為什么選擇該模型:樣本數(shù)據(jù)的特征;美國的研究,加拿大的研究,英國的研究都是如此;并且Holzer的研究成果發(fā)在頂尖期刊上美國5大經(jīng)濟學(xué)期刊;變量解釋均值標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差最小最大d5$1:存在空缺職位;0:不存在空缺職位0.782610.4137501jvr職位空缺率=tz/(d201+tz)0.068660.0875500.46715ljvrLog=(1+jvr)0.063330.0771200.38332D2012004年12月31日雇傭人數(shù)669.7142128.81820000Ld201Ld201=log(ld201)5.160871.462322.0799.90348D2022005年1-10月新進員工人數(shù)41.8571109.96101000hirate雇傭率=d202/d2010.150320.2602801.71428D2032005年1-10月離職員工人數(shù)33.2236128.78201500quitrate離職率=d203/d2010.081680.1303601tz2006年擬招聘人數(shù)26.838575.66390600Nature$企業(yè)性質(zhì)2.677010.5979313Natu1$機關(guān)0.068320.2530801Natu2$事業(yè)0.186330.3905901Natu3$企業(yè)0.745340.4370201Profit$1:贏利性單位;0:非贏利性機構(gòu)0.757760.4297701tor05年1-10月的員工流動率0.232020.3430202.2ltorLtor=log(1+tor)0.181860.2139701.16315D31:目前狀況良好;2:一般;3:不佳1.689440.6248613D41:06年預(yù)期狀況良好;2.一般;3:不佳1.782610.6954813D43x1$1:持平;0:否0.347820.4777601D43x2$1:看漲;0:否0.385090.4881301D43x3$1:看跌;0:否0.267080.4438101J1$1;2006年計劃裁員;0:否0.198750.4003101Size1$雇傭員工1-300.086950.2826501Size2$雇傭員工31-2000.503110.5015501Size3$雇傭員工201-5000.198750.4003101Size4$雇傭員工501-10000.111800.3161101Size5$雇傭員工1000-more0.099370.3001001Torr1$tor<6%0.267080.4438101Torr2$:6%=<tor<11%0.229810.4220201Torr3$11%=<tor<21%0.192540.3955301Torr4$21%=<tor<41%0.149060.3572601Torr5$41%=<tor0.161490.3691301Industry$行業(yè)虛擬變量3.795032.1246117Indu1$零售,服務(wù)(勞動密集)0.142850.3510101Indu2$高新技術(shù)(通訊,IT,生化)0.260860.4404701Indu3$建筑0.068320.2530801Indu4$制造業(yè)0.173910.3802101Indu5$貿(mào)易,運輸,倉儲0.093160.2915701Indu6$房地產(chǎn),金融等資本密集型行業(yè)0.062110.2421101Indu7$文,教,衛(wèi)生0.198750.4003101職位空缺發(fā)生率和職位空缺率的決定因素:

第一組自變量、全部調(diào)查樣本(obs=161)

(1)職位空缺發(fā)生率:Probit(a)(b)(c)(d)(2)職位空缺率:Truncated(a)(b)(c)(d)(3)自變量邊際變化后的凈效應(yīng)(a)(b)(c)(d)Ld2010.587**(0.124)o.583**(o.124)0.705**(0.164)0.853**(0.211)-0.075**(0.024)-0.069**(0.022)-0.071**(0.022)-0.070**(0.021)-0.587-0.054-0.055-0.054hirate4.682**(2.268)5.11**(2.301)6.398*(3.566)6.371*(3.494)0.065(0.058)0.052(0.056)0.056(0.056)0.036(0.057)0.1690.1630.1740.158qquitrate5.881**(2.919)5.44*(2.844)4.479(3.081)5.498(3.455)0.292**(0.123)0.268**(0.115)0.254**(0.113)0.272**(0.117)0.3980.3690.3340.373D3x10.819**(0.355)1.049**(0.386)0.501(0.494)0.533(0.571)-0.038(0.040)-0.059(0.041)-0.077*(0.046)-0.078*(0.045)-0.005-0.016-0.045-0.044D3x3-1.515**(0.513)-1.243**(0.532)-0.361(0.813)-0.483(0.986)0.037(0.081)0.006(0.078)0.030(0.082)0.035(0.081)-0.019-0.0350.0120.011profit

-0.622*(0.373)-0.804*(0.486)-0.434(0.749)

0.116*(0.064)0.104*(0.063)0.125(0.089)

0.0730.0590.084D4x1

1.636**(0.699)1.503**(0.724)

0.049(0.043)0.048(0.042)

0.0820.079D4x3

-1.946**(0.554)-2.128**(0.696)

-0.042(0.116)-0.063(0.115)

-0.093-0.115J1

-0.329(0.510)-0.111(0.609)

0.035(0.048)0.040(0.047)

0.0170.028Indudumsnononoyesnononoyes

cons-2.858**(0.671)-2.471**(0.702)-2.674**(0.878)-4.485**(1.485)0.308(0.091)0.206**(0.096)0.205**(0.096)0.186(0.127)

obs16116116116135obs.truncated35obs.truncated35obs.truncated35obs.truncated

職位空缺發(fā)生率和職位空缺率的決定因素:

第二組自變量、全部調(diào)查樣本(obs=161)

specif(1)職位空缺發(fā)生率:Probit(a)(b)(c)(d)(2)職位空缺率:Truncated(a)(b)(c)(d)(3)自變量邊際變化后的凈效應(yīng)(a)(b)(c)(d)Ld2010.518**(0.108)o.515**(o.108)0.667**(0.145)0.834**(0.187)-0.062**(0.021)-0.058**(0.019)-0.061**(0.021)-0.061**(0.021)-0.048-0.045-0.048-0.48

ltor6.554**(1.526)6.639**(1.519)7.006**(3.566)7.365**(2.003)0.266**(0.078)0.238**(0.075)0.235**(0.076)0.225**(0.075)0.3120.2890.2840.274

profit

-0.477(0.373)-0.431(0.449)-0.240(0.669)

0.088(0.059)0.096(0.065)0.118(0.092)

0.0550.0620.084

D43x2

1.552**(0.701)1.335*(0.738)

-0.001(0.042)-0.012(0.044)

0.0430.047

D43x3

-1.287**(0.401)-1.528**(0.488)

-0.040(0.062)-0.033(0.065)

-0.070-0.071

J1

-0.710*(0.433)-0.681(0.471)

0.039(0.047)0.037(0.046)

0.0080.007

Indudums

nononoyesnononoyes

constant-2.559**(0.595)-2.191**(0.639)-2.577**(0.794)-4.390**(1.328)0.211(0.085)0.129(0.099)0.138(0.099)0.124(0.135)

obs16116116116135obs.truncated35obs.truncated35obs.truncated35obs.truncated

職位空缺發(fā)生率和職位空缺率的決定因素:

第三組自變量、全部調(diào)查樣本(obs=161)

specific(1)職位空缺發(fā)生率:Probit(a)(b)(c)(d)(2)職位空缺率:Truncated(a)(b)(c)(d)(3)自變量邊際變化后的凈效應(yīng)(a)(b)(c)(d)Size21.438**(0.438)1.577**(0.441)3.085**(0.814)3.157**(0.816)-0.072(0.062)-0.077(0.059)-0.079(0.059)-0.087(0.061)-0.020-0.023-0.032-0.039Size31.671**(0.492)1.734**(0.496)2.598**(0.789)2.797**(0.800)-0.167*(0.085)-0.154*(0.079)-0.157*(0.080)-0.165**(0.081)-0.079-0.068-0.049-0.052Size42.370**(0.610)2.504*(0.615)4.725**(1.125)4.794**(1.290)-0.219**(0.111)-0.209**(0.103)-0.209**(0.102)-0.197**(0.099)-0.098-0.086-0.031-0.020Size52.779**(0.692)3.000*(0.717)5.542**(1.281)5.847**(1.505)-0.449**(0.189)-0.434**(0.176)-0.444**(0.177)-0.426**(0.167)-2.651-2.470-0.194-0.174Torr20.732**(0.328)0.759**(0.344)1.108**(0.503)1.096*(0.573)0.154*(0.094)0.153*(0.088)0.149*(0.087)0.132*(0.823)0.1440.1440.1510.138Torr31.465**(0.425)1.526**(0.428)2.419**(0.625)2.230**(0.667)0.130(0.093)0.104(0.086)0.094(0.086)0.089(0.082)0.1470.1280.1440.136Torr41.547**(0.466)1.643**(0.466)2.213**(0.672)2.176**(0.702)0.204**(0.098)0.169*(0.089)0.166*(0.089)0.166*(0.085)0.2080.1840.1970.196Torr52.512**(0.644)2.694**(0.666)4.503**(1.559)4.692**(1.493)0.303**(0.105)0.266**(0.094)0.259**(0.093)0.251**(0.089)0.3120.2870.3150.309profit

-0.718**(0.338)-1.187**(0.539)-1.299*(0.798)

0.103*(0.057)0.114*(0.061)0.148*(0.086)

0.0600.0640.090D43x2

2.866**(1.076)2.497**(1.044)

-0.023(0.041)-0.018(0.041)

0.0330.037D43x3

-1.366**(0.454)-1.597**(0.539)

-0.007(0.057)-0.001(0.059)

-0.047-0.048J1

-1.153**(0.528)-1.083*(0.559)

0.021(0.044)0.028(0.043)

-0.019-0.012Industrydumsnononoyesnononoyes

constant-1.582**(0.459)-1.177**(0.489)-1.999**(0.751)-2.465**(1.032)-0.095(0.118)-0.146(0.123)-0.138(0.121)-1.718(0.141)

observations16116116116135obs.truncated35obs.truncated35obs.truncated35obs.truncated

職位空缺發(fā)生率和職位空缺率的決定因素:

第一組自變量、企業(yè)調(diào)查樣本(obs=120)

(1)職位空缺發(fā)生率::Probit(a)(b)(c)(2)職位空缺率:Truncated(a)(b)(c)(3)自變量邊際變化后的凈效應(yīng)(a)(b)(c)Ld2010.555**(0.139)0.686**(0.188)0.669**(0.211)-0.069**(0.019)-0.069**(0.019)-0.067**(0.018)-0.052-0.052-0.050hirate4.830**(2.372)5.677(3.681)5.154(3.659)0.046(0.048)0.049(0.048)0.021(0.048)0.1570.1630.140quitrate5.899*(3.182)5.609(3.522)6.794*(4.002)0.176*(0.096)0.167*(0.098)0.195*(0.099)0.3160.3030.348D3x11.152**(0.396)0.711(0.507)0.703(0.552)-0.084**(0.038)-0.090**(0.041)-0.099**(0.042)-0.026-0.043-0.050D3x3-1.116**(0.534)-0.450(0.774)-0.505(0.954)0.000(0.066)0.021(0.072)0.023(0.069)-0.040-0.000-0.001D4x1

1.889**(0.744)1.801**(0.731)

0.027(0.037)0.019(0.036)

0.0710.064D4x3

-1.403**(0.606)-1.646**(0.771)

-0.038(0.098)-0.074(0.096)

-0.078-0.113J1

-0.424(0.601)-0.262(0.696)

0.029(0.046)0.039(0.045)

0.0060.019Industrydumsnonoyesnonoyes

constant-3.091**(0.784)-3.723**(1.139)-4.047**(1.326)0.378**(0.086)0.363**(0.087)0.354**(0.086)

observations12012012030obs.truncated30obs.truncated30obs.truncated

職位空缺發(fā)生率和職位空缺率的決定因素:

第二組自變量、企業(yè)調(diào)查樣本(obs=120)

specification(1)職位空缺發(fā)生率:Probit(a)(b)(c)(2)職位空缺率:Truncated(a)(b)(c)(3)自變量邊際變化后的凈效應(yīng)(a)(b)(c)Ld201o.466**(o.118)0.621**(0.156)0.658**(0.183)-0.060**(0.019)-0.063**(0.019)-0.062**(0.019)-0.044-0.047-0.047ltor6.659**(1.587)7.634**(2.191)7.616**(2.238)0.187**(0.068)0.175**(0.067)0.159**(0.064)0.2340.2110.200D43x2

2.021**(0.737)1.914**(0.759)

-0.031(0.040)-0.026(0.042)

0.0270.029D43x3

-0.677(0.433)-0.933*(0.498)

-0.085(0.061)-0.085(0.063)

-0.088-0.096J1

-0.862*(0.519)-0.898*(0.558)

0.033(0.046)0.037(0.046)

-0.006-0.004Industrydums

nonoyesnonoyes

constant-2.494**(0.653)-3.332**(0.986)-3.945**(1.218)0.259**(0.083)0.307**(0.092)0.305**(0.094)

observations12012012030obs.truncated30obs.truncated30obs.truncated

職位空缺發(fā)生率和職位空缺率的決定因素:

第三組自變量、企業(yè)調(diào)查樣本(obs=120)

(1)職位空缺發(fā)生率::Probit(a)(b)(c)(2)職位空缺率:Truncated(a)(b)(c)(3)自變量邊際變化后的凈效應(yīng)(a)(b)(c)Size20.726(0.521)7.334**(0.895)11.79**(0.984)-0.062(0.060)-0.061(0.060)-0.075(0.061)-0.022-0.046-0.057Size30.676(0.609)6.503**(1.023)10.41**(1.167)-0.102(0.079)-0.108(0.079)-0.109(0.079)-0.0520.0670.030Size42.320**(0.768)9.969**(1.290)14.53**(1.908)-0.232*(0.119)-0.231**(0.115)-0.217**(0.108)-0.0920.0480.022Size52.320**(0.768)10.27**(1.198)15.17**(1.711)-0.528**(0.226)-0.531**(0.218)-0.506**(0.200)-0.314-0.177-0.204Torr20.542(0.412)1.168*(0.672)1.850**(0.818)0.044(0.088)0.044(0.085)0.023(0.079)0.0530.0750.081Torr31.465**(0.465)2.165**(0.638)2.211**(0.776)0.037(0.084)0.022(0.082)0.021(0.077)0.0790.0910.091Torr42.106**(0.581)3.169**(0.883)3.777**(1.101)0.088(0.081)0.089(0.079)0.093(0.075)0.1390.1670.183Torr52.492**(0.597)9.883**(1.367)14.91**(1.599)0.179**(0.082)0.166**(0.078)0.157**(0.074)0.2140.1680.122D43x2

8.033

12.28

-0.051(0.042)-0.054(0.043)

-0.038-0.040D43x3

-0.855*(0.504)-1.786**(0.727)

-0.052(0.058)-0.056(0.059)

-0.069-0.097J1