歐洲市場(chǎng)車(chē)企2023年CO2合規(guī)情況及2025年合規(guī)目標(biāo)評(píng)估-2024-10-市場(chǎng)解讀

Bridgingthegap:Carmakers?progresstowardthe2025carCO2targets

T&E?sassessmentofcarmakersCO2performancein2023

April2024

Summary

ThecarCO2regulationisthesinglemostimportantmeasuretoreduceemissionsfromnewcarsinEurope.Thankstothisregulation,theCO2emissionsfromnewcarsintheEUhavebeenreducedby28%since2019.In2025,thenextstageoftheregulationcomesintoforcewitha15%reductioncomparedtotheemissionsbaselinein2021.

T&Ehasestimatedcarmakers'compliancegapwiththis2025targetbasedontheiremissionsin2023.TheanalysisshowsthatVolvoCarswouldalreadymeetits2025targetbasedonits2023sales,whilecarmakerssuchasKiaorStellantishaveagapoflessthan5gCO2/kmandthereforeappeartobewellontrackfortheir2025targets.VolkswagenandFordareatthebottomwiththelargestgapat22and24g/kmrespectivelyandwillneedtoredoubletheire?ortstomeettheirtargets.

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Thekeylessonfromthe2020/21targetisthat,despitecarmakersbeingbelowthetargetin2018-2019,theyallmetthetarget(oronlymisseditbyasmallmargin).Thisshowsthatitisdi?iculttopredictacarmaker'sabilitytomeetafuturetargetbylookingattheprogressmadeintheprevioustwoyears.However,whatisclearisthatcarmakershaveknownthe2025targetsince2017andhaveallpreparedandadjustedtheirstrategiestocomplyin2025.

Therearemultiplestrategiesandflexibilitiesthatcarmakerscanandareleveragingtomeetthetargets,rangingfromhigherBEVsales(thebestlongtermstrategy),tohighere?iciencyfromcombustionmodelstopoolingemissionsacrossanumberofmanufacturers.Carmakerscanalsodoalottoadjusttheirsalesbyadjustingpricesanddealerincentives,orplannewmodelsandvariantavailabilityforwhentheyneedtosellmoreEVs.However,manycarmakersarecurrentlyprioritisinglargerandmoreexpensivevehicles.Theseheaviervehiclesaremorepollutingbuto?erhigherprofitmargins.Asaresult,thelackofa?ordableEVmodelsisholdingbackEVsaleswhichexplainssomeofthecurrentsignificantgapstothe2025targets.A什eryearsofprofits,itishightimeforOEMstolauncha?ordablemassmarketEVmodelsandadjusttheirpricingtoincentivisetheircleanestvehicles.

IfcarmakersdonotimprovetheirICEsalescomparedto2023,theywouldneedtosell24%BEVsin2025.InadditiontointroducingnewBEVmodels,carmakerscanalsosellmorehybridsordownsizethemostpollutingmodels.Inthiscase,theaverageBEVsalessharecouldbereducedto18%tomeetthe2025targets.Carmakerscanalsochooseto“pool”theirsalesasHonda,JLRandTesladidin2022.VolvoCarsandTeslacouldbecandidatesforpoolingin2025.IfthecarmakerssuchasVW,FordandMercedespooledtheirsaleswiththetopofthetable(TeslaandVolvoCars),theBEVsthosethreecarmakershavetosellwoulddecreaseby36%.

Puttingthisintoperspective,the2025targetisaneasyoneasitwaslimitedto-15%,proposedin2017andle什unchangedinthe2023reviewasacompromiseonthewaytoahigher2030ambitionundertheEUGreenDeal.GiventheglobalracetodominatetheEVmarket,relaxingtheonepolicythatdrivesEuropeanOEMstoinvestinelectrificationwouldgoagainstEuropeanindustrialandsovereigntyinterests.

IftheEUchoosestoweakenitsregulationorwaiverthefines,itrisksdiscreditingtheEU?sclimateagendaandrules,andleaveEuropeancarmakersatthemercyoftheambitionsofglobalcarmakers.Insteadofquestioningtherules,EuropeancarmakersshoulddotherightthingfortheclimateandtheEUeconomyandstepuptheire?ortstocomplyandshowthattheyarefullycommittedtothetransitiontoelectric.

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1.Introduction

ThecarCO2regulationisthesinglemostimportantmeasuretoreduceemissionsfromnewcarsinEurope1.Thankstothisregulation,theCO2emissionsfromnewcarsintheEUhavebeenreducedby28%since2019.

TheEUreferencetargetissetat115gCO2/km2between2021and2024.Foreachcarmaker(OEM),thespecifictargetiscalculatedbasedonamassadjustmentthatmakesthetargetlessstringentforcarmakerswithheaviervehicles.In2025,thenextstageoftheregulationcomesintoforcewithaEUreferencetargetof93.6gCO2/kmcalculatedonthebasisofa15%reductioncomparedtotheemissionsbaselinein2021(110.1gCO2/km3).Atthesametime,themassadjustmentparameteroftheregulationhasbeenupdatedtoreflecttherealityofthemarketin2021andwillresultinastrictertargetforcarmakerswithheaviervehicles.Includingthischangeinthemassadjustment,theEUaveragetargetfor2025wouldbereducedby21%comparedto2021.Seetheannexformoreinformationonthe2025targetcalculation.

Figure1:CO2emissionsandBEVsalessharetrends

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/discover/clean-solutions-for-all-tes-car-decarbonisation-roadmap/

2Thetargetis95gCO2/kmwiththeNewEuropeanDrivingCycle(NEDC).ThistargetisthenconvertedtotheWorldwideHarmonizedLightVehiclesTestProcedure(WLTP)foreachcarmaker.Onaverage,declaredWLTPemissionswere21%higherthanNEDCemissionsin2020,sotheequivalentWLTPtargetis115gCO2/km.In

practice,eachcarmakerhasadi?erentconversionfactorbasedontheiraverageWLTPandNEDCemissionsin2020.

3Thebaselineemissionfor2021iscalculatedfromtheweightedaverageofcarmakers?targetin2021,

excludingcarmakersbenefitingfromaderogation.However,themethodologytoconvertfromNEDCtoWLTPisdi?erentfromthe2021OEMspecifictargetasitisbasedonaweightedaverageofthemeasuredWLTP

emissionsfromallcarmakersin2020insteadofthedeclaredemissionsofeachcarmaker.DeclaredWLTPemissionswere4.8%higherthanmeasuredWLTPemissionsin2020.

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Facedwiththenewtarget,carmakerssuchasVolkswagen4havecalledforso什ertargetsorwaivedfines.Carmakersthatfailtomeettheir2025targetwillbefined€95finepergCO2/kmoverthetargetandpercarsold.Backin2019,whentheEU?sfirst2020carCO2targetwasabouttocomeintoforce,manyanalystspredictedthatOEMswouldhavetopaysignificantfinesastheywereexpectedtofailtomeetthetargetsbasedontheiremissionsfromthepreviousyears.Forinstance,JATODynamicsestimatedthattheEUcarmakerswouldhavetopay€34billion5basedontheir2018emissions.However,in2020,EUelectriccarsalesincreasedbyafactorof3inoneyearin20206andmostcarmakersmettheirtargetsthisyear7.Thisshowsthatbigchangescanbeachievedinoneyear.

Thisshortbriefinglooksaheadto2025,analysingcarmakers'compliancegapbasedon2023salesandassessinghowallcarmakerscanadapttheirsalesstrategytomeetthetargets.

2.Manycarmakershavemadelittlee?ortstomeettheir2025targets

AccordingtotheanalysisbytheInternationalCouncilonCleanTransportation(ICCT)8,averageemissionsintheEuropeanEconomicArea(EEA)havefallento107gCO2/kmin2023.CarmakerssuchasVolvoCarsareleadingthewaywithanaverageof66gCO2/km,whileVolkswagenandFordarelaggingbehindwithanaverageof118gCO2/km.

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/environmentemissions/vw-may-miss-europes-2025-co2-emissions-reduction-g

oal

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/2021-co2-targets-would-generate-e34-billion-euros-in-penalty-payments-within-europe

/

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/discover/co2-targets-propel-european-ev-sales/

7Somecarmakersmissedtheirtargetbyasmallmargin:LandRover,Subaru,SuzukiandVW.

/discover/electric-car-boom-at-risk/

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/publication/eu-car-and-van-market-development-quarterly-december23-mar24/

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Figure2:CarmakersCO2emissionsin2023

Severalcarmakersareonlyafewg/kmundertheir2023target9,namelyRenaultpool(-2gCO2/km),Volkswagen(-5gCO2/km),andFord(-6gCO2/km).ThisindicatesthatdespitethefactthatthesecarmakershadacoupleofyearstocontinuereducingCO2emissionsandincreasethesalesofBEV,theyhavedonetheminimumtocomplywiththeregulationintheabsenceofmorestringenttargets.Insteadtheyfocusedonsellinglargeandexpensiveelectriccarsandheldbackthelaunchofnewa?ordableelectriccarmodels(seeT&Ebriefinganalysing2023electriccarsalesformore10).

Basedon2023emissionsandthecarmakers?expectedtargetsfor2025(moreinformationonthetargetcalculationmethodologyinAnnex),wehavecalculatedthegap11betweencarmakers2025targetand

their2023emissions,seeFigure3below.TheanalysisshowsthatVolvoCarsistheonlycarmakerthat

9The2023referencetarget(beforemassadjustment)isthesamefortheperiod2021-2024.

10

/discover/europes-bev-market-defies-odds-but-more-a?ordable-mode

ls-needed/

11Includingexpectedregulationflexibilities.Eco-innovationscreditsbasedonICCT?s2023estimate.Zeroandlowemissionsvehicles(ZLEV)bonusbasedontheexpectedZLEVsharefromGlobalDataforecast.Mass

adjustmentestimatedbasedonthemassofcarsperOEMpoolandpowertrainin2022(datafromthe

EuropeanEnvironmentalAgency

)andtheshareofpowertrainexpectedin2025(GlobalData?sHybrid&EVsalesforecast,Q32023).

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wouldalreadymeetits2025targetbasedonits2023saleswhilecarmakerssuchasKiaorStellantishaveagapoflessthan5gCO2/kmandthereforeseemtobewellpreparedfortheir2025targets.Hyundai,theRenaultpool12andBMWcomenextwithagapoflessthan10gCO2/kmandwillneedtocontinuewiththeire?ortstoincreaseBEVsales.Finally,theToyotapool13,Mercedes-Benz,FordandVolkswagencomelastwithgapsgreaterthan10gCO2/km,withVolkswagenandFordhavingthebiggestgapat22g/kmand

24g/kmrespectively.TheseOEMswillneedtodoubledownontheire?ortsin2024and2025toclosethegap.

Figure3:Carmakerscompliancegapwiththe2025carCO2targetsbasedon2023sales

3.2025targetsareachievableforallcarmakers

T&EhasmodelledtheminimumBEVsharethatwouldberequiredforeachOEMpooltomeetitsexpected2025targets(seeAnnexfordetailsoncalculationofthe2025target).Overall,weestimatethattheEUaverageBEVsharewouldneedtoreach20%in2025.However,thereisawiderangeofpossibleoutcomesdependingonhowcarmakersoptimisetheirsalesofinternalcombustionenginevehicles(ICEs).IfcarmakersdonotimprovetheirICEsalescomparedto2023,theywouldneedtosell24%BEVstocompensate.Ontheotherhand,carmakerscouldadoptstrategiestoimprovethee?iciencyoftheirICEs,byincreasinghybridisationandbyreducingthesalesoftheirmostpollutingSUVmodels.Inthiscase,theaverageBEVsalessharecouldbereducedto18%tomeetthe2025targets.Figure4showstheminimumBEVsalesforOEMswithlowandhighICEimprovementscenarios14.

12Renault,NissanandMitsubishi

13Toyota,SubaruandSuzuki

14LowICEimprovementbasedona2%e?iciencyimprovementforeachICEpowertrainwithanincreaseofmildhybrids(MHEV)salesfromabout18%ofEU27salesin2023to28%in2025.

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Figure4:CarmakersBEVsalesneededtocomplywiththe2025CO2target

LookingatmarketforecastssuchasGlobalData?s,orlookingatcarmakers?ownstatedtargetsfor2025,mostcarmakersareexpectedtomeettheirtargetsbasedontheBEVsharealreadyplanned.

VolkswagenGroupcurrentlyhasoneofthelargestgapbutithasseveraloptionstomeetits2025targetandavoidfines:

-InanEVonlystrategywithlittleICEimprovement,Volkswagenwouldneedtoreach24%ofelectriccarsalesin2025.

-IfVWweretomaximiseenginee?iciencybyreducingthesalesofitsmostpollutingmodelsandifitwouldincreaseitsMHEVshareto46%(from12%in2023),theOEMcouldmeetthetargetwith21%BEVsales.

-VWcouldpoolwithVolvoCarswhichisfaraheadinitselectrificationstrategy.InthiscasetheVW?sBEVsalescouldbelimitedto19%.

-Finally,VWcouldpoolwithTesla.Inthatcase,alowICEimprovementanda15%BEVsaleswouldbesu?icienttomeetthetarget(insteadof24%).

ItcanbenotedthatVWwouldmeettheEuropeanBEVsalesneededbasedonitsstrategicplanannouncedin202115.VWhasa20%globalBEVtargetfor2025whichwouldtranslateintoa29%BEVshare

HighICEimprovementbasedona3%e?iciencyimprovementforeachICEpowertrainwithanincreaseofMHEVsalesfromabout18%ofEU27salesin2023to35%in2025,andanincreaseoffullhybrid(HEV)salesfromabout10%ofEU27salesin2023to18%in2025.

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/en/volkswagen-group-strategy-day-new-auto-17292

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intheEuropeanEconomicArea16.So,VWwouldmeetthe21-24%BEVsharerequiredtomeetitstargetin

2025withoutpooling.

Regardingpooling,wemodelledascenariowherethe3laggardsin2023(VW,FordandMercedes-Benz,seefigure3)wouldpoolwiththe2leaders(TeslaandVolvoCars).Forillustrativepurposes,weassumedthatVWwouldpoolwithTeslaandthatFordandMercedes-BenzwouldpoolwithVolvoCars.Inthisscenario,thefollowingBEVsaleswouldbeneeded:

-Withoutpooling,VWwouldneedtoincreaseBEVsalestobridgethegapbetweenits12%BEVsalesin2023andthe24%BEVneededin2025inanEVonlystrategy.WithpoolingwithTesla,VW'sBEVsalescouldbelimitedto15%.ThismeansthatpoolingwouldreducetheBEVsalesgapby74%.

-Withoutpooling,FordwouldneedtoincreaseBEVsalestobridgethegapbetweenits4%BEVsalesin2023andthe16%BEVneededin2025inanEVonlystrategy.WithpoolingwithVolvoandMercedes-Benz,Ford'sBEVsalescouldbelimitedto9%.PoolingwouldthereforereducetheBEVsalesgapby61%.

-Withoutpooling,Mercedes-BenzwouldneedtoincreaseBEVsalestobridgethegapbetweenits18%BEVsalesin2023andthe24%BEVneededin2025inanEVonlystrategy.WithpoolingwithVolvoandFord,Mercedes-Benz'sBEVsalescouldbelimitedto17%.PoolingwouldthereforeclosetheBEVsalesgapentirely.

-LookingattheircombinedBEVsalesvolumes,poolingwouldallowthe3laggardstoreducetheirBEVsalesby36%.

4.Conclusions:thecarCO2regulationshallnotbeweaken

Thekeylessonfromthe2020/21targetisthatitisdi?iculttopredictacarmaker'sabilitytomeetafuturetargetbylookingattheprogressmadeduringthetwoprioryears.Somecarmakersdohavealargegaptoclosebutthesecarmakershaveknownaboutthe2025targetsince2017andtheyhavedonelittletonoe?ortstoreduceCO2emissionssince2021.

AllcarmakershavecarefullybeenplanningandadaptingtheirstrategiestocomplywiththeupcomingCO2targetsaspartoftheirproductroadmaps.CarmakerscanadjusttheirsalesbyadjustingpricesanddealerincentivesorplanningnewmodelsandvariantavailabilityforwhentheyneedtosellmoreEVs.However,manycarmakerscurrentlyprioritiselargerandmoreexpensivevehicles.Theseheaviervehiclesaremorepollutingbuto?erhigherprofitmargins.Thisprofit-optimisingstrategyhasledtoalackofa?ordableEVsonthemarkettoday17.Asaresult,thelackofa?ordableEVmodelsisholdingbackEVsaleswhichexplainssomeofthesignificantgapswiththe2025targets.

16In2023,VW?sBEVsharewas44%higherintheEEAthanitsglobalBEVshare.

17

/discover/europes-bev-market-defies-odds-but-more-a?ordable-mode

ls-needed/

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However,a什eryearsofprofits18,itishightimeforOEMstolauncha?ordablemassmarketEVmodelsandadjusttheirpricingtoincentivisetheircleanestvehicles.Morea?ordableEVmodelsbelow€25,000areexpectedtobelaunchedby2025,includingcheapervehiclesfromRenault,SkodaandCitro?n.

Figure5:Entry-levelmodelsannouncedfortheEUmarket19

InadditiontointroducingnewBEVmodels,sellingmorehybridsordownsizingthemostpollutingmodels,thereisalsoalotofflexibilityintheEUcarCO2legislation.Carmakerscanchooseto“pool”theirsalesasHonda,JLRandTesladidin2022.VolvoCars(andTesla)alreadymeetsits2025targetfrom2023andmaybeanothercandidateforpooling.

18

/discover/carmaker-greed-exposed-manufacturers-make-record-profit

s-but-fight-e150-pollution-fixes/

19(1)Electrive.(2023)

Citro?ntakesaimformorea?ordableEVswiththe?-C3

,(2)Reuters.(2023)

Opelexpectsto

o?erelectricvehicleforaround25,000eurosby2026

,(3)Bloomberg.(2023)

StellantisPlansSub-€25,000PandaEV

toTakeonRenault,BYD

,(4)Autocar.(2023)

Renault5platformtargetskeendynamics,lowcost

,(5)Electrive.(2023)

ElectriccarfromRenaultforunder20,000eurosin2025

,

Hatchback

,(6)AutomotiveNewsEurope.(2024)

VWsaidto

delaysmallEVvolumeproductionamidEuro7changes

,(7)Carscoops.(2023)

VWConfirmsSub-$21kEntry-Level

ID.1SmallElectric

,(8)Electrive.(2023)

Skodaannouncesplansforelectricstationwagontoreleasein2026

,(

9

)

Electrive.(2023)

Muskbiographyrevealsplansforcompactmodelandrobottaxionthesameplatform

.(

10

)

AutomotiveNewsEurope.(2024,02,04)Hyundaiwilllauncha20,000eurominiEVinEurope,reportssay

.(11)

Cupra

websiteaccessed21/02/2024

.

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Finally,productdevelopmentcyclesareshortening,allowingcarmakerstobemoreagileandflexibleinhowtheyplantomeettargets.Typicaldevelopmentcycleshavegonefrom4yearsto3years,withsomecarmakersaimingfor2yearsinordertocompetewithChinesecompetitors20.ManyofthenewEVmodelstobelaunchedin2025havebeendevelopedwithsuchshortercycles.

Ifweputinperspective,the2025targetisactuallyarelativelyeasytargetasitwaslimitedto-15%,proposedin2017andle什unchangedinthe2023reviewasacompromiseonthewaytohigher2030ambitionundertheEUGreenDeal.GiventheglobalracetodominatetheEVmarket,relaxingtheonepolicythatdrivesEuropeanOEMstoinvestinelectrificationwouldgoagainstEuropeanindustrialandsovereigntyinterests.IftheEUchoosestoweakenitsregulationorreducethefines,thiswoulddiscredittheEUclimateagendaandrulesandputEuropeancarmakersatthemercyoftheambitionofglobalcarmakers.Insteadofquestioningtherules,EuropeancarmakersshoulddotherightthingsfortheclimateandtheEUeconomyandintensifytheire?ortstocomplyandshowthattheyarefullycommittedtothetransitiontoelectric.

Furtherinformation

YoannGimbertEmobilityAnalyst

Transport&Environment

yoann.gimbert@

20

/geneva-auto-show/renault-ceo-luca-de-meo-urges-airbus-build-evs-europe

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5.Annex:Massadjustmentandcalculationofthe2025target

TheEuropeanCommission'sJointResearchCentre(JRC)haspublishedadetailedreport21in2023explaininghowthe2025targetiscalculatedandhoweachparameterisdefined.Thegeneralformula

isasfollows:

ThefirstparameteristheEUfleet-widetargetwhichiscalculatedbyapplyinga15%reductioncomparedtothe2021referencevalue.TheEUfleet-widereferencevaluefor2021iscalculatedasaweightedaverageofspecificreferencevalueofallcarmakers,excludingthosebenefitingfromaderogationin2021.Foreachcarmaker,thespecificreferencevalueiscalculatedbymultiplyingtheNEDCtargetof95gCO2/kmbytheratiobetweentheiraveragemeasuredWLTPCO2emissionsandtheirdeclaredNEDCemissions.Usingthismethodology,theJRCcalculatedthattheEUfleet-wide2025targetis93.6gCO2/km.

Thesecondparameter“a”isa“slope”parameterthatdefineshowtheOEMspecifictargetisadjusteddependingontheaveragemassofthecarmaker.Between2020and2024,thisslopeparameterwaspositiveandequalto0.0333.Thismeansthatifacarmaker?saveragecarweightwas100kgabovethemarketreferencemass,itsCO2targetwouldincreaseby3.33gCO2/km,makingthetargetlessstringent.However,theregulation?sadjustmentmechanismhasbeendefinedtoautomaticallyadjustthisslopeparameterbasedonthemarketrealityin2021.Duetotheuptakeoflowemissionvehiclesthatareonaverageheavierthanothercars,theJRCcalculatedthatthisslopeisnownegative.

Figure6:BestlinearfittingoftheWLTPCO2emissionsforcarsregisteredin2021,asafunctionofthetestmassofthevehicle

21

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC133502/JRC133502_01.pdf

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Thismeansthatin2021,onaverage,heaviervehiclesemittedlessthanlighteronesbecausetheyweremoreelectrified.Thea2025parameterwasfitted22basedontherelationshipbetweenemissionsandmassin2021andtheJRCcalculatedavaluea2025=-0.0144.Forinstance,ifacarmakerhasanaveragecarweightthatis100kgabovethemarketreferencemass,thenthisCO2targetforthatcarmakerwoulddecreaseby1.44gCO2/km,makingthetargetmorestringent.Asaresult,carmakersthatsoldheaviercars(andbenefittedfromweakenedtargetsuntil2024)willnowfaceanoppositesituationwithtargetsmorestringentthantheaverage.Similarly,carmakerssellinglightercarswillseetheirtargetsweakened(comparedtotheaverage)insteadofmademorestringent.

“TM”istheaveragetestmassofacarmaker?snewcarfleetandTM0isthemarketreferencemasscalculatedfromtheaveragetestmassofallnewpassengercarsregisteredin2021.TheJRCcalculatedTM0=1609.6kg.

WhiletheEUfleet-widetargetwhichiscalculatedbyapplyinga15%reductioncomparedtothe2021referencevalue,thespecifictargetforeachcarmakerisnota15%reductioncomparedtoits2021targetfortworeasons:

●First,the2021specifictarget