殼牌液化天然氣（LNG）前景報(bào)告2024

CautionarynoteshellLNGoutlook2024ThecompaniesinwhichShellplcdirectlyandindirectlyownsinvestmentsareseparatelegalentities.InthisLNGOutlook“Shell”,“ShellGroup”and“Group”aresometimesusedforconveniencewherereferencesaremadetoShellplcanditssubsidiariesingeneral.Likewise,thewords“we”,“us”and“our”arealsousedtorefertoShellplcanditssubsidiariesingeneralortothosewhoworkforthem.Thesetermsarealsousedwherenousefulpurposeisservedbyidentifyingtheparticularentityorentities.‘‘Subsidiaries’’,“Shellsubsidiaries”and“Shellcompanies”asusedinthisLNGOutlookrefertoentitiesoverwhichShellplceitherdirectlyorindirectlyhascontrol.EntitiesandunincorporatedarrangementsoverwhichShellhasjointcontrolaregenerallyreferredtoas“jointventures”and“jointoperations”,respectively.“Jointventures”and“jointoperations”arecollectivelyreferredtoas“jointarrangements”.EntitiesoverwhichShellhassignificantinfluencebutneithercontrolnorjointcontrolarereferredtoas“associates”.Theterm“Shellinterest”isusedforconveniencetoindicatethedirectand/orindirectownershipinterestheldbyShellinanentityorunincorporatedjointarrangement,afterexclusionofallthird-partyinterest.ThisLNGOutlookcontainsforward-lookingstatements(withinthemeaningoftheU.S.PrivateSecuritiesLitigationReformActof1995)concerningthefinancialcondition,resultsofoperationsandbusinessesofShell.Allstatementsotherthanstatementsofhistoricalfactare,ormaybedeemedtobe,forward-lookingstatements.Forward-lookingstatementsarestatementsoffutureexpectationsthatarebasedonmanagement’scurrentexpectationsandassumptionsandinvolveknownandunknownrisksanduncertaintiesthatcouldcauseactualresults,performanceoreventstodiffermateriallyfromthoseexpressedorimpliedinthesestatements.Forward-lookingstatementsinclude,amongotherthings,statementsconcerningthepotentialexposureofShelltomarketrisksandstatementsexpressingmanagement’sexpectations,beliefs,estimates,forecasts,projectionsandassumptions.Theseforward-lookingstatementsareidentifiedbytheiruseoftermsandphrasessuchas“aim”,“ambition”,‘‘a(chǎn)nticipate’’,‘‘believe’’,‘‘could’’,‘‘estimate’’,‘‘expect’’,‘‘goals’’,‘‘intend’’,‘‘may’’,“milestones”,‘‘objectives’’,‘‘outlook’’,‘‘plan’’,‘‘probably’’,‘‘project’’,‘‘risks’’,“schedule”,‘‘seek’’,‘‘should’’,‘‘target’’,‘‘will’’andsimilartermsandphrases.ThereareanumberoffactorsthatcouldaffectthefutureoperationsofShellandcouldcausethoseresultstodiffermateriallyfromthoseexpressedintheforward-lookingstatementsincludedinthisOutlook,including(withoutlimitation):(a)pricefluctuationsincrudeoilandnaturalgas;(b)changesindemandforShell’sproducts;(c)currencyfluctuations;(d)drillingandproductionresults;(e)reservesestimates;(f)lossofmarketshareandindustrycompetition;(g)environmentalandphysicalrisks;(h)risksassociatedwiththeidentificationofsuitablepotentialacquisitionpropertiesandtargets,andsuccessfulnegotiationandcompletionofsuchtransactions;(i)theriskofdoingbusinessindevelopingcountriesandcountriessubjecttointernationalsanctions;(j)legislative,judicial,fiscalandregulatorydevelopmentsincludingregulatorymeasuresaddressingclimatechange;(k)economicandfinancialmarketconditionsinvariouscountriesandregions;(l)politicalrisks,includingtherisksofexpropriationandrenegotiationofthetermsofcontractswithgovernmentalentities,delaysoradvancementsintheapprovalofprojectsanddelaysinthereimbursementforsharedcosts;(m)risksassociatedwiththeimpactofpandemics,suchastheCOVID-19(coronavirus)outbreak,regionalconflicts,suchasRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,andasignificantcybersecuritybreach;and(n)changesintradingconditions.Noassuranceisprovidedthatfuturedividendpaymentswillmatchorexceedpreviousdividendpayments.Allforward-lookingstatementscontainedinthisLNGOutlookareexpresslyqualifiedintheirentiretybythecautionarystatementscontainedorreferredtointhissection.Readersshouldnotplaceunduerelianceonforward-lookingstatements.AdditionalriskfactorsthatmayaffectfutureresultsarecontainedinShellplc’sForm20-FfortheyearendedDecember31,2022(availableat/investors/news-and-filings/sec-filings.htmland).Theseriskfactorsalsoexpresslyqualifyallforward-lookingstatementscontainedinthisOutlookandshouldbeconsideredbythereader.Eachforward-lookingstatementspeaksonlyasofthedateofthisOutlook,February14,2024.NeitherShellplcnoranyofitssubsidiariesundertakeanyobligationtopubliclyupdateorreviseanyforward-lookingstatementasaresultofnewinformation,futureeventsorotherinformation.Inlightoftheserisks,resultscoulddiffermateriallyfromthosestated,impliedorinferredfromtheforward-lookingstatementscontainedinthisLNGOutlook.Shell’snetcarbonintensityAlso,inthisLNGOutlookwemayrefertoShell’s“NetCarbonIntensity”,whichincludesShell’scarbonemissionsfromtheproductionofourenergyproducts,oursuppliers’carbonemissionsinsupplyingenergyforthatproductionandourcustomers’carbonemissionsassociatedwiththeiruseoftheenergyproductswesell.Shellonlycontrolsitsownemissions.TheuseofthetermShell’s“NetCarbonIntensity”isforconvenienceonlyandnotintendedtosuggesttheseemissionsarethoseofShellplcoritssubsidiaries.Shell’snet-ZeroEmissionsTargetShell’soperatingplan,outlookandbudgetsareforecastedforaten-yearperiodandareupdatedeveryyear.Theyreflectthecurrenteconomicenvironmentandwhatwecanreasonablyexpecttoseeoverthenexttenyears.Accordingly,theyreflectourScope1,Scope2andNetCarbonIntensity(NCI)targetsoverthenexttenyears.However,Shell’soperatingplanscannotreflectour2050net-zeroemissionstargetand2035NCItarget,asthesetargetsarecurrentlyoutsideourplanningperiod.Inthefuture,associetymovestowardsnet-zeroemissions,weexpectShell’soperatingplanstoreflectthismovement.However,ifsocietyisnotnetzeroin2050,asoftoday,therewouldbesignificantriskthatShellmaynotmeetthistarget.Shellexpectstopublishits2024EnergyTransitionStrategyonMarch14,2024,whichwillincludeanupdateonShell’senergytransitionstrategyandsetoutShell’sclimatetargetsandambitionsforthefuture.ForwardLookingNon-GAAPmeasuresThisLNGOutlookmaycontaincertainforward-lookingnon-GAAPmeasuressuchas[cashcapitalexpenditure]and[divestments].Weareunabletoprovideareconciliationoftheseforward-lookingNon-GAAPmeasurestothemostcomparableGAAPfinancialmeasuresbecausecertaininformationneededtoreconcilethoseNon-GAAPmeasurestothemostcomparableGAAPfinancialmeasuresisdependentonfutureeventssomeofwhichareoutsidethecontrolofShell,suchasoilandgasprices,interestratesandexchangerates.Moreover,estimatingsuchGAAPmeasureswiththerequiredprecisionnecessarytoprovideameaningfulreconciliationisextremelydifficultandcouldnotbeaccomplishedwithoutunreasonableeffort.Non-GAAPmeasuresinrespectoffutureperiodswhichcannotbereconciledtothemostcomparableGAAPfinancialmeasurearecalculatedinamannerwhichisconsistentwiththeaccountingpoliciesappliedinShellplc’sconsolidatedfinancialstatements.ThecontentsofwebsitesreferredtointhisreportdonotformpartoftheLNGOutlook2024.Wemayhaveusedcertainterms,suchasresources,inthisLNGOutlookthattheUnitedStatesSecuritiesandExchangeCommission(SEC)strictlyprohibitsusfromincludinginourfilingswiththeSEC.InvestorsareurgedtoconsidercloselythedisclosureinourForm20-F,FileNo1-32575,availableontheSECwebsite.February20242February20242SummaryIndustry,heatingemergingAsiatodemandgrowthanddriveLNGGaspricesmorestablein2023butvolatilitylingeredinatightmarketshellLNGoutlook2024RisingglobaldemandforRisingglobaldemandforLNGexpectedtokeeppacewithnewsupplyIndustry,heatingandemergingAsiatodriveLNGdemandgrowth如如Gasusepeaksinsomemarkets,continuestogrowgloballyshellLNGoutlook2024PeakgasdemandbydecadeNaturalgassupplyPeakgasdemandbydecadeNaturalgassupplysourceRussia2040s+Russia2040s+5.0004.5004.0003.5003.0002.5005.0004.5004.0003.5003.0002.5002.0001.5001.000 50003.6%Japan2010s-0.2%China2040st0.5% IndonesiaNigeria2040s+India2040s+2010s2020s2030s2040s+USA2030s4.5004.0003.5003.0002.5002.0001.5001.000 50003.6%Japan2010s-0.2%China2040st0.5% IndonesiaNigeria2040s+India2040s+2010s2020s2030s2040s+USA2030sSouthAfricaSouthAfrica2040sArgentina2030sOtherArgentina2030s2023204020232040DomesticproductionSource:ShellinterpretationofWoodMackenziedataCAGR:CompoundannualgrowthrateFebruary20245February20245Industry,buildingstobekeydemanddriversinemergingAsiaEmergingAsianaturalgasdemandEmergingAsiagassupplysourceshellLNGoutlook20246005004007006005004003002000100020232040MainlandChina20232040SouthAsia20232040South-eastAsiaOtherOtherSource:ShellinterpretationofWoodMackenziedata1.2001.00080060040020001.2001.00080060040020005.1%4.4%005%.202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040LNGLNGFebruary20246February20246IndustrymustaddressCO2emissionsshellLNGoutlook2024ComparativeemissionsMtCO2/yr.JapanAviationInternationalshipping05001.0001.500GermanyUKChinaexposuretoEUCBAM20220.4$bn5.3$bn17.3$bnWaystodecarboniseChinesesteel%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%OtherGas-drivennGas-supportedOtherSource:ShellinterpretationofWoodMackenzie,IEAdata,NetZeroRoadmapforChina’ssteelindustrystudyforGlobalEfficiencyIntelligence&LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory2023CBAM:CarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanism.ValueofChineseexportstoEUthatwillbecoveredbyCBAMatimplementation.CCUS:carboncapture,utilisationandstorage(includesbio-energyCCUS).ThreelargestEuropeanemitters:Germany,UK,TurkeyFebruary20247February20247PolicyandinvestmentcontinuesforgasprojectswithenvironmentalandemissionsbenefitsshellLNGoutlook2024AsiaInfrastructureInvestmentBankenergyprojectfunding2016-2023$M1.8001.6001.4001.2001.000 800 600 400 200020162017201820192020202120222023ElectricityinfrastructureGasGreenfinancingRenewablegenerationSources:ShellinterpretationofAsiaInfrastructureInvestmentBankdata,BeijingMunicipalBureauofStatisticsandAirQualityIndexdataUnhealthydays:definedasanAirQualityindexwithPM2.5greaterthan150μg/m3EnergydemandandairqualityinBeijing252050201420152016201720182019202020212022200180160140120100806040200---Gasdemand——CoaldemandUnhealthydaysFebruary20248February20248GascurrentlyplayskeyroleinmeetingheatingdemandshellLNGoutlook2024EnglandandWalesbuildings:gas*andtotalelectricitydemandGWh/dnov2018mrt2019jul2019nov2019mrt2020jul2020nov2020mrt2021jul2021nov2021mrt2022jul2022nov2022mrt2023nov2018mrt2019jul2019nov2019mrt2020jul2020nov2020mrt2021jul2021nov2021mrt2022jul2022nov2022mrt2023jul2023nov2023Gas*——Electricity**Sources:ShellinterpretationofUKNationalGridESOandUKNationalGasdata2023,WoodMacKenziedata2023*LocalDistributionZones(low-pressuregassuppliedtobuildings)inEnglandandWales**TotalelectricitydemandforEnglandandWalesBuildingsgasdemandBCM(2022)口口UK口MainlandChina回EuropeanUnion口USA33February20249February20249 shellLNGoutlook2024ChinaCapacityGWGenerationshare7.0006.0005.0004.0003.0002.0001.0000202220302035204070%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%SouthAsiaCapacityGWGenerationsha1.40070%1.20060%1.00050%80040%60030%40020%20010%00%2022203020352040South-eastAsiaCapacityGWGenerationshare1.0009008007006005004003002001000202220302035204080%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Coal口GasNuclearHydroOther o%coalshareSource:ShellinterpretationofWoodMackenziedataFebruary202410February202410Gasprovidesgridstability,enablingahighershareofrenewablesingenerationshellLNGoutlook2024VariablehourlypowergenerationinSpain5,04,54,05,04,54,03,53,02,52,00,50,018-feb19-feb20-feb21-feb22-feb23-febGasWind&SolarHydroNuclearOtherVariabledailypowergenerationintheNetherlandsGWh/d5004003002001000-10026nov23nov25nov27nov2826nov23nov25nov27nov28nov29nov30nov24novdec02dec2023CoalWindSolarNuclearOtherGasImportsCoalWindSolarNuclearOtherGasSource:ShellinterpretationofEuropeanNetworkofTransmissionSystemOperatorsdata2023Spanishfigurescalculatedfrom15-minuteintervalsOtherincludesbiomass,otherrenewablesandcoalFebruary202411February202411MarinesectorcontinuestoreduceemissionsthroughLNGshellLNGoutlook2024Vesselorderbook(2023)ConventionalHydrogen&derivatives口LNGOther537469onorderinoperationProjectedLNGbunkeringto2028(‘000tonnes)12.00010.0008.0006.0004.0002.0000202320242025202620272028.Bulkers.ContainershipsPathwaystoCO2ereductionNetZeroNetZeroOnboardCCSOnboardCCS-engines-fuelcellformainengineairlubrication-hullcoatings-digitalisation-shaftpowergeneration-methaneslipmitigation/eliminationCombinedwithnewtechnologiesCombinedwithnewtechnologiesSource:ShellinterpretationofClarksonsResearch,DNVHydrogen&derivatives:methanol,ammonia,hydrogen,biofuel.Other:Ethane,LPG,nuclear.PCC:purecarcarriers.Ro-Ro:roll-on/roll-off.Others:dredgers,ferries,multi-purpose,LPG,tugs.LSG:liquefiedsyntheticgas.Energyefficienttechnologiesincludeairlubrication,shaftpowergeneration,digitaltechnologies,windtechnologiesandimprovedhullcoatings.FutureTechnologiesincludeonboardcarboncaptureandstorage,co-feedinghydrogencombinedwithdual-fuelLNGengines,fuelcellformainengine.February202412February202412LNGdecarbonisationpathwaysneedtobeexploredtogetherCarboncompensatedCarboncompensatedLNGUpUptocompensatedCarboncreditscancompensateforCO2eLNGcargoesBioLNGBioLNGManureAgriculturalandslurryamenitywastewasteAnaerobicdigesterBiogasBiogasupgradedtobiomethaneUpUpto100%reducedDependingpercentageblendingofbioTechnologiesandefficienciesTechnologiesandefficiencies~10%reducedrenewableelectricityinLiquefiedsyntheticLiquefiedsyntheticgaselectricityfromrenewableenergyCOHOStoredandexportedasliquefiedelectricityfromrenewableenergyCOHOStoredandexportedasliquefiedMethanationBioCOCOfromDirectAirCapture,circularCOand,pointsourceindustrialCOCHUpUpto90-95%reducedWhenproducedfromrenewableelectricity&usingbio-CO2CarboncaptureCarboncaptureandstorage~80%+CO2removalinLNGliquefactionFebruary202413Source:ShellinterpretationofUKDepartmentforEnvironment,FoodandRuralAffairs(DEFRA)GHGconversationfactors2022,JECWell-to-Tankreportv5,WoodMackenzieannouncementFebruary202413Acommongoal:reducingmethaneemissionsto‘nearzero’DrivenbyindustryshellLNGoutlook2024andpolicyofGlobalMethanePledge,covering86%ofLNGimportingcountries*GroundbreakingmethaneregulationforGroundbreakingmethaneregulationforoilandgas,includingimportsofgasandAgreementofEU,Japan,SouthKorea,USAandAustraliatoharmonisedMRVGllGNLCERTIFIEDOver80GllGNLCERTIFIEDOver80%ofLNGflowscoveredbymorethanFirstGIIGNL’sMRVFirstGIIGNL’sMRVandGHGNeutralalignedcargodeliveredinTaiwanhavejoinedOGMP2.0MiQCERTIFIEDLabtestsofnewshippingtechnologyshowsmethanereducedMiQCERTIFIEDlowlevels**$255mlnmobilisedReduction$255mlnmobilisedReductionCH4leddemandfortransparencyandleddemandfortransparencyandthird-partyverification52signatoriestooilandgasdecarbonisationcharterlaunchedatCOP28Source:Oil&GasMethanePartnership(OGMP),publicannouncements,MethaneIntelligence(MiQ)announcements,*includingEU;**AnnouncementbyDaphneTechnologies(SlipPure)February202414February2024142Gaspricesmorestablein2023butvolatilitylingeredintight2marketDespitestructuraltightnesspricesmoderatedin2023shellLNGoutlook2024500-50Pipelineexports*LNGexportsMildwintertemperaturesHighgas&LNGinventoriesinEurope&AsiaStrongnucleargenerationinFrance,Japan&SouthrecoveryWeakEuropeandemand&energysavings2023demandfactorsAveragemonthlyJKMprices$/MMBtu6040200JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2016-2020range2021--20222023Source:ShellinterpretationofIntercontinentalExchange(ICE)andWoodMackenziedataJKM:JapanKoreaMarker*PipelineexportsexcludeNorthAmericapipelinetradeFebruary202416February202416SupplysecurityconcernssparkedperiodsofvolatilityshellLNGoutlook2024ProlongedProlongedNorwegianmaintenanceAustralianindustrialactionconcernIsrael-Hamasconflictvolatility32123123inventoriesEuropeangasinventoriesEuropeangas100%60%40%20%0%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecMaxcapacity2018-2022range---20222023MaxcapacityDutchTTFtradedvolumevspriceMWEUR/MWh600.000500.000400.000300.000200.000100.0000Jan-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jan-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23123TradedvolumeFront807060504030200Source:ShellinterpretationofCommodityEssentialsandICEdataEuropeincludesUK,Germany,Belgium,France,Denmark,Netherlands,Spain,Italy,Austria,Slovakia,CzechRepublicandSwitzerlandFebruary202417February202417USAbecamethelargestLNGexporterTopexportersin2023USexportstoAsiashellLNGoutlook2024100806040200USAAustraliaQatarRussiaMalaysiaMalaysiaQatarUSAAustraliaMalaysiaQatarSource:ShellinterpretationofKplerdata*Others:CapeofGoodHope42320jan-23feb-23mrt-23apr-23mei-23jun-23jan-23feb-23mrt-23apr-23mei-23jun-23jul-23aug-23sep-23okt-23nov-23dec-23PanamaCanalSuezCanalOthers*February202418February202418NewinfrastructurehelpsredistributeEuropeanLNGimportsshellLNGoutlook2024ChangeinLNGimports2023(YoY)TotalLNGtrade:404MT507,94,64,12,92,00,80,70,70,60,40,40,4-0,5-0,6-0,6-0,7-1,1-2,8-3,5-4,3-6,0MainlandChinaGermanyNetherlandsThailandIndiaItalySingaporeFinlandBangladeshColombiaPhilippinesJamaicaBelgiumHongKongMalaysiaTurkeyGreecePortugalMainlandChinaGermanyNetherlandsThailandIndiaItalySingaporeFinlandBangladeshColombiaPhilippinesJamaicaBelgiumHongKongMalaysiaTurkeyGreecePortugalBrazilSouthKoreaSpainFranceUnitedKingdomJapanOthersEuropeancountrywithexistingregasificationfacilityEuropeancountrywithnewregasificationfacilityOthersSource:ShellinterpretationofKplerdataFebruary202419February202419Europeangasdemandfellin2023shellLNGoutlook2024ChangeinEuropeangasbalance340330320310300290035034033032031030029002022ProductionLNGExportsOtherpipedRussianpipedNetstorage2022ProductionLNGExportsOtherpipedRussianpipedNetstoragechange2023IndustrialPower2022GasdemandChangeingasdemandChangeinstorageGas-powerdemandinEurope86486420JanMarAprMayJulAugOctNovJanMarAprMayJulAugOctNov2018-2022range-o-2023IndustrialgasdemandinEurope86420JanMarAprMayJulAugOctNovJanMarAprMayJulAugOctNov20232018-2022range2023Source:ShellinterpretationofCommodityEssentialsdataEuropeandemandincludesUK,Germany,Belgium,France,Denmark,Netherlands,Spain,Italy,Austria,Slovakia,CzechRepublicandSwitzerlandR&C:ResidentialandcommercialFebruary202420February202420ChinagasdemandoutpacedmoderateeconomicgrowthshellLNGoutlook2024ChangeinChinagasbalance40038036034008%gasdemandgrowth2022DomesticproductionPipedimportsLNG2023PowerIndustrialTransport2022DomesticproductionPipedimportsLNG2023PowerIndustrialTransport2022GasdemandChangeingasdemandSource:ShellinterpretationofNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaandWoodMackenziedataChinatermvsspotLNGimports10080604020020192020202120222023TermImpliedspotTotalLNGimportsFebruary202421February202421JapangasdemanddeclinesasmorenuclearplantsrestartshellLNGoutlook2024NuclearavailabilityvsLNGimports120100806040200PeakLNGdemandFukushimaPeakLNGdemand2011201320152017201920212023100806040200Nucleargeneration——LNGimportsSource:ShellinterpretationofJapanMinistryofEconomy,TradeandIndustry(METI),WoodMackenzie,EnergyAspectsdataGas-firedpowerdemandvsLNGimports6543210HeatwavesInventoryreplenishmentjanfebmrtaprmeijunjulaugsepoktnovdecYoYchangeinLNGimports——Power2022Power2023February202422February202422USsupplyandAsiandemandtoleadgrowthin2024shellLNGoutlook2024ForecastLNGsupplygrowth202425tTotal5AmericasAfricaRussiaAsiaMiddleTotalForecastLNGdemandgrowth2024Globalregascapacitygrowth255807-20Mt40Consultantforecastrange*HighAsiaexcl.worldTotal 120807-20Mt40Consultantforecastrange*HighAsiaexcl.worldTotalTotal020202021202220232024Asiaexcl.ChinauChinamEuropenRestofworldSource:ShellinterpretationofWoodMackenzie,Poten&Partners,S&PGlobalCommodityInsightsandFGEdataAllforecastsarenormalisedtodeliveredvolumes*Consultantforecastrangerepresentsthedistributionofyear-over-yearsupplyanddemandgrowthforecastsfromWoodMackenzie,Poten&Partners,S&PGlobalCommodityInsightsandFGEFebruary202423February202423RisingglobaldemandforLNGexpectedtokeeppacewithnewsupply3SignificantLNGsupplycomingbutstart-uptimingsuncertain HistoricalglobalLNGsupplygrowthGlobalLNGsupplygrowthforecastrangeshellLNGoutlook2024604020020182019202020212022202360Consultantforecastrange*High40200