Financial English 7.ppt

1、Chapter 7,Foreign Exchange Market when it falls in value ,it undergoes depreciation. Methods of Quotation Foreign exchange dealers quote two prices, one for selling, one for buying.,Defining Exchange Rate,Direct Quotation The exchange rates are quoted in terms of a variable number of home currency p

2、er fixed foreign currency unit. Indirect Quotation The exchange rates are quoted in terms of a variable number of foreign currency unit to the fixed unit of home currency,Continental European dealers normally quote via the direct method, including China. In London dealers use the indirect method. In

3、 USA, both quotation methods are used. When a bank is dealing with a customer within the U.S.,a direct quotation is given, but when dealing with other banks in Europe(except the UK),the indirect quotation is used.,Defining Exchange Rate,Bank A gives a quotation of EOR/USD as 1.0820/40. David wants t

4、o sell 5 million USD to Bank A for EOR, how much EOR David can obtain from Bank A? A Chinese company A wants to import a machine from a US company B. Company B offered two prices. One is 345,000 US dollars, another one is 2.8 million HK dollars. At that time, foreign exchange rate is USD/CNY 8.2740/

5、50 and HKD/CNY 1.0120/30. So which price should company A accept?,Basic Rate and Cross Rate Official Rate and Market Rate Bid Rate(Buying) and Offered Rate(Selling) Inter-bank Rate and Commercial Rate T/T(Telegraphic Transfer Rate) M/T(T/T(Mail Transfer Rate) D/D(Demand Draft) Spot Rate and Forward

6、Rate Nominal Rate and Real Rate,Why Are Exchange Rate Important?,Exchange rates are important because they affect the relative price of domestic and foreign goods. When a countrys currency appreciates(rises in value relative to other currencies), the countrys goods abroad become more expensive and f

7、oreign goods in that country become cheaper(holding domestic prices constant in the two countries).,How Is Foreign Exchange Traded?,Types of foreign exchange transactions Spot transactiona foreign exchange transaction to be settled on the second following business day 即期匯率也稱現(xiàn)匯率，是交易雙方達成外匯買賣協(xié)議后，在兩個工作日

8、以內(nèi)辦理交割的匯率。 這一匯率一般就是現(xiàn)時外匯市場的匯率水平。即期匯率是由當(dāng)場交貨時貨幣的供求關(guān)系情況決定的。一般在外匯市場上掛牌的匯率，除特別標(biāo)明遠期匯率以外，一般指即期匯率。,Forward transactiona foreign exchange transaction agreed upon today but to be settled at some specified future date, often one, two or three months after the transaction date. 又稱期匯交易，是指交易雙方在成交后并不立即辦理交割，而是事先約定幣種

9、、金額、匯率、交割時間等交易條件，到期才進行實際交割的外匯交易。 匯交易交割期限一般有1個月、2個月、3個月、6個月、12個月。若期限再長則被稱為超遠期交易。遠期外匯交易的作用是避險保值。,1 任何外匯交易都以即期交易為基礎(chǔ)，所以遠期交割日是以即期加月數(shù)或星期數(shù)。若遠期合約是以天數(shù)計算，其天數(shù)以即期交割日后的日歷日的天數(shù)作為基準(zhǔn)，而非營業(yè)日。 2 遠期交割日不是營業(yè)日，則順延至下一個營業(yè)日。順延后跨月份的則必須提前到當(dāng)月的最后一個營業(yè)日為交割日。 3 雙底慣例。假定即期交割日為當(dāng)月的最后一個營業(yè)日，則遠期交割日也是當(dāng)月的最后一個營業(yè)日。,Option forward transactionth

10、e customers right to deliver or to take delivery of a specified sum in foreign currency at any time or times during an agreed period. 外匯擇期交易是指由交易雙方約定于未來某一段時期，依交易當(dāng)時所約定的幣別、匯率及金額可隨時進行交割的交易活動。 外匯擇期交易主要為一部分無法掌握確定的遠期交割日的進出口商提供遠期的匯率鎖定服務(wù)，以幫助他們控制匯率風(fēng)險。與遠期外匯買賣相比，外匯擇期交易為客戶提供了較大的靈活度。,Swap transactionIn general,

11、it is the simultaneous purchase and sale of foreign exchange or securities, with the purchase being effected at one and the sale back to the same party to be carried out at a price agreed upon today but to be completed at a specified future date.,一家日本貿(mào)易公司向美國出口產(chǎn)品，收到貨款500萬美元。該公司需將貨款兌換為日元用于國內(nèi)支出。同時公司需從美

12、國進口原材料，并將于3個月后支付500萬美元的貨款。此時，公司可以采取以下措施：敘做一筆3個月美元兌日元掉期外匯買賣：即期賣出500萬美元，買入相應(yīng)的日元，3個月遠期買入500萬美元，賣出相應(yīng)的日元。通過上述交易，公司可以軋平其中的資金缺口，達到規(guī)避風(fēng)險的目的。,How Is Foreign Exchange Traded?,You cannot go to a centralized location to watch exchange rates being determined; currencies are not traded on exchanges such as the New

13、 York Stock Exchange. In stead, the foreign exchange market is organized as an over-the-counter market in which several hundred dealers stand ready to buy and sell deposits denominated in foreign currencies.,Exchange Rates in the Long Run,The starting point for understanding how exchange rates are d

14、etermined is a simple idea called the Law Of One Price. If two countries produce an identical good, the price of the good should be the same throughout the world no matter which country produces it. 一價定律認為在沒有運輸費用和官方貿(mào)易壁壘的自由競爭市場上，一件相同商品在不同國家出售，如果以同一種貨幣計價，其價格應(yīng)是相等的。,Question,Recently, the yen price of J

15、apanese steel has increased by 10%(10,000 yen to 11,000 yen) relative to the dollar price of American steel (unchanged at 100 dollars). By what amount must be dollar increase or decrease in value for the law of one price to hold true?,Answer,For the law of one price to hold, the exchange rate must r

16、ise to 110 yen per dollar, which is a 10% appreciation of the dollar. The exchange rate rises to 110 yen so that the price of Japanese steel in dollars remains unchanged at $100 (=11,000 yen/110 yen per dollar). In other words, the 10% depreciation of the yen just offsets the 10% increase in the yen

17、 price of the Japanese steel.,按照一價定律的理論，任何一種商品在各國間的價值是一致的。（通過匯率折算之后的標(biāo)價是一致的）若在各國間存在價格差異，則會發(fā)生商品國際貿(mào)易，直到價差被消除，貿(mào)易停止，這時達到商品市場的均衡狀態(tài)。,第一次世界大戰(zhàn)之后，資本主義各國（美國除外）相繼廢棄了金本位制，代之以不可兌現(xiàn)的紙幣流通制，由于戰(zhàn)時支出劇增，各國都靠擴大貨幣發(fā)行量進行彌補，形成了世界范圍的通貨膨脹。戰(zhàn)后，各國開始重新尋求貨幣匯率的穩(wěn)定，但由于各國的通貨膨脹率不同，如何確定新的均衡匯率就成為恢復(fù)世界貨幣體系過程中的一大難題。 正是在這種情況下，瑞典經(jīng)濟學(xué)家古斯塔夫.卡塞爾提出，

18、一國應(yīng)以國內(nèi)外物價對比來作為決定匯率的依據(jù)，而新的均衡匯率則應(yīng)在最初的均衡匯率的基礎(chǔ)上，再根據(jù)兩國相對通貨膨脹率作出調(diào)整后得到。,Exchange Rates in the Long Run,One of the most prominent theories of how exchange rates are determined is the Theory Of Purchasing Power Parity. It states that exchange rates between any two countries will adjust to reflect changes in

19、the price levels of the two countries. It suggests that if one countrys price level rises relative to anothers, its currency should depreciate. PS: the PPP cannot fully explain exchange rates.,絕對購買力平價,一價定律是針對某一種商品，如果將單一商品推廣到所有商品，就可以推導(dǎo)出絕對購買力平價。 絕對購買力平價認為兩種貨幣之間的匯率應(yīng)該等于兩國貨幣在同樣的一籃子商品上具有的購買力，那么它可以簡寫成S=PD/

20、PF，匯率應(yīng)該等于兩國價格水平之比。其中PD表示本國的價格水平，PF表示外國價格水平。根據(jù)這個公式，當(dāng)本國價格水平相對上升時，本幣購買力相對下降，則匯率S上升，本幣貶值。,相對購買力平價,根據(jù)絕對購買力平價，我們可以推出相對購買力平價。推導(dǎo)的方法有兩種： （1）取對數(shù)后差分；（2）基期和現(xiàn)期（0和t） 相對購買力平價模型形式如下：S=(St-St-1)/St-1=RD-RF RD和RF表示本國和外國第t期的通貨膨脹率。根據(jù)相對購買力平價認為，匯率變化的百分比等于兩國通貨膨脹率的差異。如果本國的通貨膨脹率比外國高，其貨幣應(yīng)該貶值，反之本幣應(yīng)該升值。,三者區(qū)別,一價定律可以推導(dǎo)出絕對購買力平價，但

21、是兩者具有明顯區(qū)別：（1）分析對象不同。購買力平價是以匯率為分析對象，而一價定律主要是考察價格；（2）價格不同。購買力平價涉及的是一攬子物價水平，一價定律考慮的是一種商品的價格；（3）適應(yīng)條件不同。絕對購買力平價的適應(yīng)條件不如一價定律那么嚴(yán)格，絕對購買力平價并不要求每一種商品價格相等，也不要求兩國完全取消貿(mào)易壁壘，只要各國對進口和出口的限制程度相同，則仍然成立。,三者區(qū)別,絕對購買力和相對購買力平價的區(qū)別是：（1）絕對購買力平價將價格水平和匯率水平聯(lián)系起來，而相對購買力平價將價格變動與匯率變動聯(lián)系起來。所以，絕對購買力平價說明某一時點上匯率的決定，而相對購買力平價說明一段時間內(nèi)匯率的變動規(guī)律。

22、 （2）絕對購買力平價在計算兩國物價水平時，要求所參照的商品籃子及其權(quán)重都相同，相對購買力平價沒有這個限制，但是相對購買力平價要求基期存在絕對購買力平價，這種先決條件很難成立。,Influence of Foreign Exchange Rates,Balance of International Payments Inflation Interest Rate Economy Growth Rate Macroeconomic Policy Expectation,Influence of Foreign Exchange Rates,Trade Balance Non-trade Bala

23、nce Capital Flow Exchange Reserve Domestic Price Level Income and Employment,The Balance of International Payments,An accounting record of all transactions made by a country over a certain time period, comparing the amount of foreign currency taken in to the amount of domestic currency paid out.,The

24、 Balance of International Payments,The IMF definition: The balance of payments is a statistical statement that summarizes transactions between residents and nonresidents during a period.The balance of payments comprises the current account, the capital account, and the financial account. Together, t

25、hese accounts balance in the sense the sum of the entries is conceptually zero.,The Balance of International Payments,Differences between international payments and international credits Residents and Non-residents Transactions,The Balance of International Payments,Principles Each transaction is rec

26、orded in accordance with the principles of double-entry bookkeeping, meaning that the amount involved is entered on each of the two sides of the balance-of-payments accounts. Consequently, the sums of the two sides of the complete balance-of-payments accounts should always be the same, and in this sense the balance of payments always balances.,The Balance of International Payments,Balance of Payment Presentation Components The current account brings together transactions that involve currently produced goods and services. It is composed of exports and impo