ManagementNeeds氣候變化與水資源影響與管理需求

1、climate change and water:impacts & management needs氣候變化與水資源：氣候變化與水資源：影響與管理需求影響與管理需求 roger calow water policy programme, odi羅杰羅杰overview概述概述1. the big picture概括1. irrigation surface water systems灌溉地表水系統(tǒng)3.irrigation - groundwater economies灌溉地下水節(jié)約4. conclusions總結(jié)the most vulnerable?最脆弱群體？最脆弱群體？driv

2、ers of change & management challenges變化動因變化動因&管理挑戰(zhàn)管理挑戰(zhàn)major drivers?主要動因？主要動因？urbanisation, industrialisation, consumption.with climate change overlaya water crisis? 水危機？水危機？who gets what (q, q, r) in a variable climate: farms vs cities, upstream vs downstream, environmental vs humanadaptati

3、on challenge? 適應挑戰(zhàn)？適應挑戰(zhàn)？mediating between competing claims: range of different scalesagricultural futures? 農(nóng)業(yè)未來？農(nóng)業(yè)未來？.agriculture will lose water. how? impacts on poorer households?agriculture & irrigation農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)業(yè)&灌溉灌溉two stories: surface water irrigation (ids) development - state sponsored, dri

4、ven management - increasingly commercial groundwater irrigation more recent, increasingly farmer-led & opportunistic boreholes 1949 (0) today (5m).concentrated in water scarce north controllability, affordability.impactswater withdrawals in hebei by sector, 1990 2003河北省分部門采水量河北省分部門采水量source: heb

5、ei provincial wrd statistical yearbooksyellow river flows 1956-2000黃河水流量黃河水流量prov.qhscgsnximsasahnsdhbtotalloc. 4.05.57.02.037yellow river allocation plan（billion m3）water allocation in the yellow river basin 黃河流域水資源配給黃河流域水資源配給permit 1 hangjin id: 0.41 bcmpermits 2&3 hetao id:

6、4.77 bcmdefined under the yrccs water allocation plan (long term) and adjusted under annual regulation plans (annual) defining and protecting farmers rights?irrigation diversion灌溉灌溉water allocation basin to household水資源分配水資源分配從流域到用戶從流域到用戶basin basin allocation allocation agreementagreementprovinceqh

7、scgsnximsaasahnsdhbtotalalloc.14.10.430.440.058.638.043.155.470.020.0370hangjin irrigation district 280gl（abstraction)hetao irrigation districtabstractioabstraction permitsn permitswater user associationswater user associationschannel lossesother usersgroup water group water entitlementsentitlements

8、water water certificatescertificateshouseholdhouseholdhangjin - channel lining夯井夯井分渠灌溉分渠灌溉channel lining and water transfer: winnersand losers? 分渠灌溉與水資源轉(zhuǎn)移：贏家與輸家？分渠灌溉與水資源轉(zhuǎn)移：贏家與輸家？muganbalahaijianshegross permit before trading410 mcmreturn flow before trading35 mcmsaving after trading130 mcmreturn flo

9、w after trading35 mcmgross diversion after trading280 mcmwater permit of 5860 mcmwater diverted before trading 375 mcmwater diverted after trading245 mcm key messages ids & water transfers關鍵點關鍵點ids與水資源配給與水資源配給1.irrigation will lose market share2.supply will fluctuate.variability will increase3.d

10、eepening rights reform (basin to farmer) will grow in importance4.protecting the interests of poorer households as water is reallocated will depend on:informal claims (wuas, contracting)sound science basin efficiencies, consumptive rightswillingness to recognise effects on 3rd parties & environm

11、ental flowswater & agricultural management in hebei河北省水資源與農(nóng)業(yè)管理河北省水資源與農(nóng)業(yè)管理total water withdrawals in bashang counties, 1995 2005壩上縣水資源抽取總量壩上縣水資源抽取總量01000200030004000500060007000surfacewatergroundwatersurfacewatergroundwatersurfacewatergroundwater199520002005yearwithdrawal (m3 x 103)zhangbeiguyuan

12、shangyikangbaosource: personal communication, zhangjiakou city water affairs bureau 2005.groundwater level changes recorded for three bashang counties, 2003 2005地下水水位變化記錄地下水水位變化記錄source: zhangjiakou city water affairs bureau, 2006.predicted groundwater level declines in the bashang 可預測地下水位下降情況可預測地下水

13、位下降情況source: wamh 2004. note: drawdown modelled over a 10 year period based on 2003 estimates of groundwater abstraction and recharge. irrigation development and control areas in the bashangcontrol areas - well drilling in the bashang控制區(qū)控制區(qū)井水抽取井水抽取groundwater management challenge地下水管理挑戰(zhàn)地下水管理挑戰(zhàn)countr

14、yannual groundwater use (km3)no. of groundwater structures (million)extraction/ structure (m3/year)% of population dependent on groundwaterindia185-200209,000-10,00055-60pakistan450.590,00060-65china753.521,50022-25iran290.558,00012-18mexico290.07414,2855-6usa1100.2555,0001-2source: shah, 2004wuas &

15、amp; quotas in the long-term: 長期長期 scale-up to reduce free-ridingtie quotas to variable shares of aquifer safe yieldprogress: 進展進展shared allocationsconservation incentivesdevolved managementa farm economy?農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟？農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟？shifting livelihoods生活水平變化生活水平變化 rural jobs rnfe, migration rural incomes diverse, di

16、spersed dependence on cprs - declining drivers of change small push, big pull sources of vulnerability income shocks nature of community boundaries blurring rural development narrative income, employmentvulnerable are locked in to the old economy key messages protecting high value aquifers & ser

17、vices主要信息主要信息保護高價值地下蓄水層保護高價值地下蓄水層&服務服務 groundwater access key role in poverty reduction but monitoring patchy, numbers uncertain, impacts of climate change unclear protecting the interests of poorer households will depend on: extending access to gw irrigation prioritising domestic water protecting key reserves a different approach to managementdevolving tasks and functionssupported by sound science adaptation &a