電池生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃的制定概述

1、飛輪電池生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃的制定? 市場(chǎng)需求預(yù)測(cè) -4? 實(shí)際產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)工藝路線分析-10? 生產(chǎn)方式的經(jīng)濟(jì)分析和比較-11? 制定綜合生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃-13? 生產(chǎn)能力的粗平衡-14? 制定主生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃 -14? 制定 MRP,CRP-14? 生產(chǎn)能力的精平衡-39? 零件工序卡編制 -39? 產(chǎn)品裝配工序卡編制-411. 市場(chǎng)需求預(yù)測(cè)（ Market forecast）實(shí)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)monthmonthmonth monthmonthmonthmonth month monthmonthmonthmonth123456789101112year91824211020272311222926quarter？根據(jù)給出的

2、數(shù)據(jù)，選擇一種模型來預(yù)測(cè)下一年的市場(chǎng)需求量，屬于長期預(yù)。從給出的數(shù)據(jù)分析可以得出，每年的同一月份市場(chǎng)需求量比較接近，而同一年份的不同月份之間存在較大的差異，市場(chǎng)需求量與時(shí)間季節(jié)因素有關(guān)。方案一： Seasonalized Time Seiries Regression的模型來進(jìn)行市場(chǎng)預(yù)測(cè)。預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果如下：SalesCONFIDENCE INTERVAL( 90%)*SEASONALIZEDTIME SERIES REGRESSIONFORECASTING*-PROBLEM NAME: Untitled-FORECASTSales-ABSOLUTEYEARMONTH ACTUAL REGRESSI

3、ONSEASONALIZEDERROR119.00017.5338.7660.2341218.00017.98217.9820.0181324.00018.43024.5730.5731421.00018.87922.0251.0251510.00019.3279.6640.3361620.00019.77619.7760.2241727.00020.22426.9660.0341823.00020.67324.1181.1181911.00021.12110.5610.43911022.00021.57021.5700.43011129.00022.01829.3580.35811226.0

4、0022.46726.2120.212-SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL ( 90%)YEAR MONTH FORECAST LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND2111.45810.91012.0062223.36422.26824.4602331.75030.28933.2122428.30527.02629.584REGRESSION EQUATION: Y = a + bXWHERE:Y = SalesX = TIME PERIODa =17.0844b =0.4486FORECAST = Y * SEASONAL INDEX (i)R = 0.942R-SQU

5、ARE = 0.8872MEAN ABSOLUTEDEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 3 PERIODS = 0.333MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.283MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = -0.131STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 0.605SEASONAL INDEX (1) =0.500SEASONAL INDEX (2) =1.000SEASONAL INDEX (3) =1.333SEASONAL INDEX (

6、4) =1.167由決定系數(shù) R=0.942 和相關(guān)系數(shù) R2=0.8872 ，預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果準(zhǔn)確性很高。預(yù)測(cè)的誤差在合理的范圍內(nèi)，預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果如下：month1month2month3month4year212243228方案二： TIME SERIES REGRESSION模型進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果如下：SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL( 90%)* TIME SERIES REGRESSION FORECASTING *-PROBLEM NAME: Untitled-SalesSalesABSOLUTEPERIODACTUALFORECASTERROR19.00014.8465.84621

7、8.00015.7832.217324.00016.7207.280421.00017.6573.343510.00018.5948.594620.00019.5310.469727.00020.4696.531823.00021.4061.594911.00022.34311.3431022.00023.2801.2801129.00024.2174.7831226.00025.1540.846-SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL ( 90%)PERIODFORECASTLOWER BOUNDUPPER BOUND1326.09114.97437.2081427.02815.91

8、138.1451527.96516.84839.0821628.90217.78540.019REGRESSION EQUATION: Y = a + bXWHERE:Y = SalesX = TIME PERIODa =13.9091b =0.9371R = 0.500R-SQUARE = 0.2501MEAN ABSOLUTEDEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST3PERIODS =2.303MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 31.369MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIOD

9、S = 0.0STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 6.1354誤差分析： R = 0.500R-SQUARE =0.2501MEAN ABSOLUTEDEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST3PERIODS =2.303MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 31.369 MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.0 STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 6.1354從預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果可以看出這種預(yù)測(cè)方法與過去的數(shù)據(jù)相差很大，因此

10、，兩種方法相比較，第一種預(yù)測(cè)誤差精度更高誤差更小，所以我采取第一種預(yù)測(cè)方法。2.實(shí)際產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)工藝路線分析(Product Process Analysis)零件工藝過程生產(chǎn)提零件名前零件代號(hào)稱零件材料12345期鉆鍛孔、MLF-03外殼Q235-A造車削擴(kuò)孔1外轉(zhuǎn)子鉆電機(jī)套鍛孔、MLF-05筒Q235-A造焊接車削擴(kuò)孔2鉆鍛孔、MLF-11底板Q235-A造車削擴(kuò)孔1鑄鉆電器定車削銑削孔、2造MLF-12位板鋁合金擴(kuò)孔電磁鐵鑄鉆線切外側(cè)夾車削精車孔、造2MLF-07-03 緊發(fā)蘭鋁合金擴(kuò)孔割電磁鐵鍛MLF-07-04鐵芯DW314-50 造1電磁鐵鉆內(nèi)側(cè)夾鑄孔、MLF-07-05 緊發(fā)蘭鋁合

11、金造車削精銑擴(kuò)孔精車2電磁鐵鉆夾緊裝鑄孔、MLF-07-06置鋁合金造銑削擴(kuò)孔1鑄熱處鉆車削精車孔、2造理MLF-09-01盤片45擴(kuò)孔模MLF-09-02磁環(huán)電工純鐵鍛車削銑削1鉆鑄孔、MLF-09-03壓環(huán)45造車削銑削擴(kuò)孔23. 生產(chǎn)方式的經(jīng)濟(jì)分析與比較(Alternative Plans Comparison)Machine capacity=12325/425=29(assemble/month)Assemble capacity=4900/175=28(assemble/month)所以每月最多生產(chǎn)28 臺(tái)。首先 , 計(jì)算計(jì)劃一年雇用、解雇的工人數(shù)量和在這一年的平均庫存。12345

12、67AggregateMontAggregPannedWorkerWorkeWorkers laidplanhateoutputssrsoffdemandrequirhirededLevel1122472018capacity224247200with332247200inventory429247200Matching1121236054demand2242472360332328412042929840089101112InventoBeginniEndingAverageAveragerynginventinventorinventoryaddinginventooryyperper y

13、earorrymonthsubtraction1210221616.8750222222(8)221418(5)14911.500000000000000000然后 , 計(jì)算兩種方案的成本：1234567AggregTotalTotalAveragAnnuAnnualTotalTotalateannuaannuaealinventannualannualplanllannualhiriorysubtracincremenumbenumbe inventngcarryitionntalr ofroforyandngcostoperatiworkeworkelayocostng costrsrsf

14、fhiredlaidcostoffLevel01816.87510805332.506412.5capacityMatchi4854037200(4+1)*112720ng800demand備注：（ 4） =（1） *10+（2）*60；（ 5）=（ 3）*4*79 ：（ 7） =（ 4）+（5） +（6）在 matching demand 生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃中第三月和第四月的需求量超過了本廠的最大生產(chǎn)能力，如若要滿足要求需要采用外協(xié)或者加班的方式解決。如果采用外協(xié)第三月份有 32-28=4 臺(tái)需要外協(xié)，第四月份有 29-28=1 臺(tái)需要外協(xié)。總的 Cost=（4+1）*1800=9000再考慮到工人工

15、資，總的費(fèi)用如下：Cost of level capacity=6412.5+72*4*2*200=121612.5Cost of matching demand=12720+(36+72+84+84)*2*200=123120相差的費(fèi)用Cost of matching demand- Cost of level capacity=123120-121612.5=1507.5 。 Level capacity比 Matching demand的花費(fèi)更少。如果采用加班加班：每臺(tái)成本是600*2.5=1500外協(xié)：每臺(tái)是 1800因?yàn)閷?duì)于 matching demand 中第三月和第四月共缺5 臺(tái)

16、，所以兩者共相差（ 1800-1500）*5=1500通過外協(xié)和加班兩者的比較可以看出，兩者的費(fèi)用差不多，但考慮到 Level capacity 的生產(chǎn)方式比 Matching demand 生產(chǎn)方式更加穩(wěn)定；Level capacity生產(chǎn)方式在解雇和招聘工人方要比Matchingdemand的變動(dòng)更小，有利于和工會(huì)之間關(guān)系的維持；在Levelcapacity生產(chǎn)方式中有8 臺(tái)的安全庫存可以保證在市場(chǎng)變動(dòng)時(shí)滿足市場(chǎng)需求。綜合以上因素，我選擇Level capacity生產(chǎn)方式。4. 制定綜合生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃 (Aggregate Planning)1234567AggregatMonthAggreg

17、atePannedWorkeWorkeWorkee plandemandoutputrsrsrssrequihiredlaidredoffLevel1122472018capacity224247200with332247200inventor429247200y5. 生產(chǎn)能力粗平衡 (Rough-Cut Capacity Planning)生產(chǎn)能力粗平衡Month final assembly hours1234Production24242424Final4200420042004200assemblyhoursLoad(hours)4200420042004200Capacity(ho4

18、900490049004900urs)由上表可知生產(chǎn)能力滿足要求，不需要加班或者外協(xié)。6 制定主生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃 (Master Production Schedule)主生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃Month 1Month 2Month 3Month 4周數(shù)1234123412341234總 需 求12243229量期初庫 10222214存需 求 數(shù)6666量期 末 庫2222149存7.1MRP7制定MRP,CRP(MaterialRequirementPlanning,Capacity Requirement Planning)012數(shù)量MLF-001MLF-031MLF-051MLF-071MLF-07-033

19、MLF-07-043MLF-07-053MLF-07-066MLF-091MLF-09-011MLF-09-021MLF-09-031MLF-111MLF-121各個(gè)零件選擇用Lot For Lot的生產(chǎn)方式，用軟件POM計(jì)算可得：* MATERIALS REQUIREMENTS PLANNING (MRP) *=PROBLEM NAME: Untitled=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCode TimeHandStockAllocatedSize00001080LFL-Week Number:1 2345678-Gross Requirements6

20、6666666Scheduled Receipts00000000Available20000000Net Requirements46666666Planned Order Receipts46666666Planned Order Releases46666666-Week Number:9 10111213141516-Gross Requirements66666666Scheduled Receipts00000000Available00000000Net Requirements66666666Planned Order Receipts66666666Planned Order

21、 Releases66666666-=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize0311000LFL-Week Number:12 345678-Gross Requirements46666666Scheduled Receipts00000000Available00000000Net Requirements46666666Planned Order Receipts46666666Planned Order Releases106666666* RUSH ORDER *-Week Number:91

22、0111213141516-Gross Requirements66666666Scheduled Receipts00000000Available00000000Net Requirements66666666Planned Order Receipts66666666Planned Order Releases66666660* RUSH ORDER *-=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCode TimeHandStockAllocatedSize0512000LFL-Week Number:12345678-Gross Requirements4

23、6666666Scheduled Receipts00000000Available00000000Net Requirements46666666Planned Order Receipts46666666Planned Order Releases166666666* RUSH ORDER *-Week Number:9 10111213141516-Gross Requirements66666666Scheduled Receipts00000000Available00000000Net Requirements66666666Planned Order Receipts666666

24、66Planned Order Releases66666600* RUSH ORDER *-=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCode TimeHandStockAllocatedSize070010000LFL-Week Number:12345678-Gross Requirements46666666Scheduled Receipts00000000Available00000000Net Requirements46666666Planned Order Receipts 46666666Planned Order Releases 46666666-Week Number:910111213141516-Gross Requirements66666666Scheduled Receipts00000000Available00000000Net Requirements666 6 6666Planned Order Receipts66666666Planned Order Rele