外文翻譯--貿(mào)易及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)在日本和韓國(guó)的實(shí)證分析

1、外文翻譯-貿(mào)易及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)在日本和韓國(guó)的實(shí)證分析 本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯外文題目 Terms of trade and economic growth in Japan and Koreaan empirical analysis 出 處 Empir Econ 2010 38139158 作 者 Hock Tsen Wong 原 文Terms of trade and economic growth in Japan and Koreaan empirical analysis1 IntroductionTerms of trade and terms of trade volatility ha

2、ve a critical impact on economic growth particularly during world episodes of global integration or disintegration when export prices converge or diverge worldwide inducing large terms of trade changes andeconomy-wide responses However their inuence is ambiguous An increase in terms of trade could e

3、ither lead to an increase or a decrease in economic growth Generally an increase in terms of trade will lead to an increase in investment and thus economic growth will increase Mendoza Bleaney and Greenaway and Blattman et al amongst others report a positive impact of terms of trade on economic grow

4、th Eicher et aldevelop an inter-temporal model to examine the impact of a decrease in terms of trade on current account and output with the focus on a developing country The model shows that a decrease in terms of trade will have a negative effect on income and wealth In the long run a decrease in t

5、erms of trade will lead to a proportional decrease in the debt level of an economy whilst output capital and borrowing will not change Thus a change in terms of trade will only affect economic growth in the short run and not in the long run A high terms of trade volatility will lead to the re-alloca

6、tion of both input and output because of aversion to risk This will involve costs and losses and thus economic growth will decrease This is particularly important where hedge markets are incomplete Empirical studies into the impact of terms of trade and terms of trade volatility on economic growth a

7、re dominated by cross-country research Nonetheless it is interesting to examine the impact of terms of trade and terms of trade volatility on a particular economy This study examines the impact of terms of trade on real gross domestic product GDP per capita in Japan and Korea using time series data

8、Japan is a relatively large closed economy whilst Korea is a relatively small open economy Moreover Japan has achieved a low economic growth rate over the past few decades whilst Korea has achieved a relatively high economic growth rate This study thus provides some evidence of whether terms of trad

9、e have contributed significantly to a relatively low or high economic growth The impact of terms of trade on economic growth is argued to be different across economies Fur- thermore this study examines the impact of terms of trade volatility on real GDP per capita In addition the impact of oil price

10、 and nancial development on real GDP per capita is examined Japan and Korea are both oil importing countries Therefore this study provides some evidence of the impact of oil price on economic growth in a relatively large closed economy and a relatively small open economy The empirical estimation is

11、based on an augmented production function The Dickey and Fuller and Phillips and Perron unit root test statistics are used to examine the stationarity of the data The ohansen cointegration method is used to examine the long-run relationship between terms of trade and real GDP per capita The cointegr

12、ation method is able to test the existence of more than one cointegrating vector in a systemThe generalised forecast error variance decomposition and generalised impulse response function are used to examine the rela- tionship of variables in a system The generalised forecast error variance decompos

13、itions and generalised impulse response functions solve the orthogonalised problem of the forecast error variance decompositions and impulse response functions of Sims The problem is that the latter approaches are sensitive to the order of the variables in the vector autoregressive VAR system This a

14、rticle is organised as follows Section 2 discusses the literature review of terms of trade and economic growth Section 3 explains the methodology and data in this study Section4 presents empirical results and discussions Section 5 provides some concluding remarks 2 Literature review of terms of trad

15、e and economic growthThere are many studies on the relationship between terms of trade and economic growth Mendoza examines the impact of terms of trade on economic growth in 40 industrial and developing countries using cross-sectional data for the period 19711991 The results show a positive impact

16、of terms of trade on economic growth Moreover terms of trade shocks are reported to account for nearly half the changes in actual GDP Furthermore economic growth is found to be slower in countries with higher terms of trade volatility Bleaney and Greenaway examine the impact of terms of trade on eco

17、nomic growth in 14 sub-Saharan African countries using cross-sectional data for the period 19801995 They nd that an increase in terms of trade will lead to an increase in economic growth Hadass and Williamson examine the relationship between terms of trade and economic growth using cross-sectional d

18、ata for the period 18701940 They nd that although terms of trade movement favours primary product exporters it reduces their economic growth Moreover there is strong evidence of asymmetry in economic growth between the core and the periphery Generally the impact of terms of trade on economic growth

19、is very small for both the core and the periphery In the pre-war period changes in terms of trade explained less than one-fth of economic growth which is expressed by the GDP per capita growth rate Nonetheless the study covers few of the developing countries that remained poor up to World War II On

20、the other hand Blattman et al analyse more than half a century of pre-World War II data 18701938 for 35 countries They nd that terms of trade have a significant impact on economic growth Moreover the impact of terms of trade is greater on the periphery than in the core A decline in terms of trade ex

21、perienced by the periphery represented a significant drag on economic growth during those seven decades Furthermore there is asymmetry between the core and the periphery Terms of trade or terms of trade volatility seem to have played little role in the core despite the fact that terms of trade volat

22、ility were almost as high in the core as on the periphery5 However terms of trade appear to have played an important role in explaining the economic growth of the periphery The core could escape the damaging consequences of terms of trade instability an escape that was apparently unavailable to prim

23、ary product exporters of the periphery Blattman et al employ a panel data analysis for 35 countries for the period 18701939 They report the same conclusions they obtained earlier They nd that terms of trade secular change or long-run change have a significant impact on economic growth6 The impact of

24、 terms of trade secular change is more important on the periphery than in the core Nonetheless terms of trade secular change is less important than terms of trade volatility for economic growth The impact of terms of trade differs between the core and the periphery Turnovsky and Chattopadhyay examin

25、e the impact of various sources of volatility on economic growth in a sample of 61 less developed countries for the period 19751992 The data analysed are annually They also separate the sample into two sub-samples namely 31 high volatility countries and 30 low volatility countries An increase in ter

26、ms of trade is found to have a weak impact on economicgrowth and there is no significant evidence that governmentexpenditure or monetary growth has any impact However they nd that terms of trade volatility govrnment expenditure volatility and monetary volatility have a strong negative impact on econ

27、omic growth The volatility may reduce capital intensity particularly where a country faces an upward sloping supply curve of debtThe mean growth rate of terms of trade has a weak positive impact on the mean economic growth rate Grimes examines the impact of terms of trade on economic growth in New Z

28、ealand The results show that approximately half the variance in annual GDP growth over 45 years can be explained by the level and volatility of terms of trade The relationship is robust across four economic regimes Urban 2007 p 471 examines theoretically and empirically the medium and long-run relat

29、ionship between terms of trade and income in industrialised countries The study offers two theoretical channels which relate the terms of trade to income growth in a stochastic and dynamic general equilibrium model with exible terms of tradeThe home market effect predicts that countries with a faste

30、r economic growth will have real appreciation of their terms of trade The productivity shock effect predicts that countries with a faster economic growth will have real depreciation of their terms of trade 3 Methodology and dataIn this study the impact of terms of trade on economic growth is examine

31、d based on an augmented production function8 More specifically this study examines three vectors The rst vector includes real GDP per capita labourcapital terms of trade oil price and nancial development The second vector includes the same variables as in the rst vector except that terms of trade is

32、 replaced by terms of trade volatility which is measured by the moving standard deviation with order four that is MSD 4 The third vector includes the same variables as in the second vector except that terms of trade volatility is measured by the Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic

33、ity model that is GARCH 11 It has been documented that changes in oil price have been closely related to macroeconomic performance Backus and Crucini use a dynamic general equilibrium model and nd that oil price accounts for much of the variation in terms of trade over the last 25 years and its quan

34、titative role varies significantly over time Moreover they report that during the period 19721987 terms of trade of industrialised countries were driven mainly by changes in oil price Furthermore the increased volatility in terms of trade since the end of the Bretton Woods system seems largely due t

35、o the increased volatility in oil price rather than the increased volatility of nominal or real exchange rates Thus oil price is an important factor in the determination of terms of trade A sound nancial system is important for economic growth Financial systems 1 facilitate the trading hedging diver

36、sifying and pooling of risk 2 allocate resources 3 monitor managers and exert corporation control 4 mobilise saving and 5 facil- itate the exchange of goods and services Levine 1997 The increased availability of nancial instruments and institutions reduces transaction and information costs in an eco

37、nomy Nonetheless empirical ndings on the relationship between nancial development and economic growth are less conclusive The DF unit root test statistic is used to examine the stationarity of the data The cointegration method is used to examine the long-run relationship among variables ina vector T

38、he cointegration method proposes two likelihood ratio tests to test the number of cointegrating vectors in the systemIf there are two cointegrating vectors in a vector the rst cointegrating vector shall be identied by normalising real GDP per capita and the second cointegrating vector shall be ident

39、ied by normalising terms of trade The rst cointegrating vector is normalised based on the argument that economic growth of an economy can be estimated using an augmented production function and the second cointegrating vector is normalised based on the argument that terms of trade is strongly inuenc

40、ed by oil price 譯 文貿(mào)易及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)在日本和韓國(guó)的實(shí)證分析1簡(jiǎn)介 貿(mào)易條款及貿(mào)易波動(dòng)條款對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有重要影響特別是在全世界的出口價(jià)格收斂或發(fā)散的全球一體化或解體時(shí)期包括誘導(dǎo)貿(mào)易的變化和整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的反應(yīng)然而它們的影響是模糊地在貿(mào)易方面的增加可能導(dǎo)致增加或減少經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)一般而言貿(mào)易方面的增加將導(dǎo)致投資的增加因此經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)也將增加Mendoza Bleaney Greenaway 和Blattman等其他人的報(bào)告指出貿(mào)易條件對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生積極的影響Eicher等人開(kāi)發(fā)一個(gè)跨時(shí)空模型來(lái)探討貿(mào)易條件的下降對(duì)活期存款賬戶和輸出地影響重點(diǎn)是發(fā)展中國(guó)家該模型表明貿(mào)易條件的下降將對(duì)收入和財(cái)富有負(fù)面影

41、響從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看貿(mào)易條件的下降將導(dǎo)致資本負(fù)債水平的比例減少資本產(chǎn)出和不變的借貸因此貿(mào)易條件的變化僅僅影響短期的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)而不是長(zhǎng)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)波動(dòng)性高的貿(mào)易條件將導(dǎo)致資源配置的輸入和輸出這是因?yàn)橐?guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)但最重要的是因?yàn)閷?duì)沖市場(chǎng)的不完整性貿(mào)易條件和貿(mào)易波動(dòng)方面對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響的實(shí)證研究在跨國(guó)研究中占主導(dǎo)地位然而有意思的是檢驗(yàn)貿(mào)易條件和貿(mào)易波動(dòng)條件對(duì)特定的經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響本研究采用時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)探討了在日本和韓國(guó)的實(shí)際人均GDP對(duì)貿(mào)易條件的影響日本是一個(gè)大的封閉經(jīng)濟(jì)體而韓國(guó)式一個(gè)相對(duì)較小的開(kāi)放型經(jīng)濟(jì)體此外日本在過(guò)去十年內(nèi)實(shí)現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率較低而韓國(guó)已取得了相對(duì)較高的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度因此本文獻(xiàn)提供了一些關(guān)于貿(mào)易條件對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)

42、增長(zhǎng)的增加或降低是否具有重要意義的證據(jù)不同的經(jīng)濟(jì)體系認(rèn)為貿(mào)易條件對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響是不同的此外本研究探討了貿(mào)易波動(dòng)的條件對(duì)實(shí)際人均GDP的影響另外探討石油價(jià)格和金融發(fā)展對(duì)實(shí)際人均GDP的影響日本和韓國(guó)都是石油進(jìn)口國(guó)因此本研究提供了有關(guān)于石油價(jià)格對(duì)相對(duì)大的封閉經(jīng)濟(jì)和相對(duì)小的開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響實(shí)證估計(jì)是基于擴(kuò)展的一條生產(chǎn)函數(shù)Dickey Fuller Phillips 和 Perron用單位根統(tǒng)計(jì)量來(lái)檢驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)的平穩(wěn)性Johansen的協(xié)整方法被用來(lái)研究貿(mào)易條件和實(shí)際GDP之間的長(zhǎng)期關(guān)系協(xié)整方法能夠測(cè)試存在在日本和韓國(guó)多個(gè)系統(tǒng)的貿(mào)易條件和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)廣義預(yù)測(cè)誤差分解和廣義沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)用來(lái)檢查系統(tǒng)中的變

43、量關(guān)系廣義預(yù)測(cè)誤差分解和廣義沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)解決了預(yù)測(cè)誤差方差分解和脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)的問(wèn)題但問(wèn)題在于后者的方法是對(duì)向量自歸系統(tǒng)的變量順序敏感的 本文介紹結(jié)構(gòu)如下第二節(jié)回顧了討論貿(mào)易條件和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的文獻(xiàn)第三節(jié)揭示了本研究的方法和數(shù)據(jù)第四節(jié)呈現(xiàn)實(shí)證的結(jié)果和討論的結(jié)論第五節(jié)做總結(jié)2貿(mào)易條件和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的文獻(xiàn)綜述 這里有很多研究貿(mào)易條件和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間關(guān)系的資料Mendoza使用了1971年到1991年之間的橫截面數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)考察了貿(mào)易條件對(duì)40個(gè)工業(yè)發(fā)展中國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響結(jié)果顯示貿(mào)易條件對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生積極的影響此外貿(mào)易條件的沖擊被報(bào)道幾乎占實(shí)際GDP的一半的變化還有經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)緩慢的國(guó)際貿(mào)易條件波動(dòng)高Bleaney 和

44、 Greenaway使用了1980年到1995年之間的橫截面數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)研究貿(mào)易條件對(duì)14個(gè)撒哈拉以南的非洲國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響他們發(fā)現(xiàn)貿(mào)易條件的增加將導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的增加Hadass 和 Williamson使用了1870年到1940男之間的橫截面數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)研究貿(mào)易條件和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系他們發(fā)現(xiàn)盡管貿(mào)易條件的流動(dòng)有利于初級(jí)產(chǎn)品的出口卻減少了出口國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)此外還有核心和外圍之間不對(duì)稱的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的有力證據(jù)一般來(lái)說(shuō)貿(mào)易條件對(duì)核心和外圍的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響非常的小在戰(zhàn)前時(shí)期用貿(mào)易條件的變化來(lái)解釋少于人均GDP的五分之一的增長(zhǎng)速度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)然而這項(xiàng)研究包含少數(shù)的仍然相當(dāng)于二戰(zhàn)時(shí)期貧困的發(fā)展中國(guó)家 在另一方面Blattman等人分析了1870年到1937年超過(guò)半世紀(jì)的35個(gè)國(guó)家的世界大戰(zhàn)期間的數(shù)據(jù)他們發(fā)現(xiàn)貿(mào)易條件對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生了重大影響貿(mào)易條件對(duì)外圍的影響大于對(duì)核心的影響一個(gè)貿(mào)易條件的下降所經(jīng)歷的邊緣代表七十年之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主要拖放此外還有核心和外圍之間