畢業(yè)設計(論文)外文參考資料及譯文中國農(nóng)村老齡化問題及政策選擇

1、畢業(yè)設計（論文）外 文 參 考 資 料 及 譯 文譯文題目：中國農(nóng)村老齡化問題及政策選擇學生姓名：學 號：專 業(yè)：行政管理所在學院：龍蟠學院 指導教師：職 稱：講師2011年 3 月 1 日中國農(nóng)村老齡化問題及政策選擇一、 簡介中國65歲及以上人口流動部分（約7%）沒有世界其他國家的高（2000年人口資料局）。然而，由于20世紀70年代初期計劃生育的有效實施，導致生育率急劇下降，這個現(xiàn)象意味著老齡化問題的加速。生育率下降的速度可以決定這個問題的進展所產(chǎn)生的后果的程度。由于社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展之外（吳1992；于1995；張1998）人口的轉變，年齡結構和社會經(jīng)濟開發(fā)及機構之間的矛盾在中國是不可避免的。

2、為了研究和強調(diào)這個問題，一個被稱作生育率下降的后果和對策的研究小組在1993年成立。研究人員把他們的研究重點放在人口和社會經(jīng)濟后果的研究和有針對性的對生育率下降的政策影響和年齡的變化結構（喬1996）。很明顯，低生育率并非總是比高生育率（谷和穆1994）更好。中國的人口問題開始由規(guī)模造成的問題轉移到結構所引起的問題。因此，中國在本世紀面臨的最重要的問題將是老齡化（喬1994）。這些問題將圍繞解決人口和社會經(jīng)濟因素的關系而展開進行的（喬和穆1995）。老齡化問題是一個社會經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展和機構不考慮在年齡結構的變化的結果，反過來說，也就是年齡結構本身不適應于社會經(jīng)濟的變化發(fā)展。因此，這些問題可以通過調(diào)

3、整解決社會和體制的因素，而不是人口結構調(diào)整因素，如生育率、死亡率和遷移（喬1997）。家庭規(guī)模的縮小，是由于獨生子女家庭的增加，這將導致中國傳統(tǒng)家庭模式戲劇性的變化（喬1995）。無論是在城市或農(nóng)村地區(qū)都將有4-2-1的模式產(chǎn)生（陳1994）。由于平均壽命延長，健康老齡化已經(jīng)成為老齡化社會中的一個重要問題（董事會人口研究雜志1995）。解決老齡化問題，關鍵是要建立一個能為老年人盡早解決這些問題的一個新的社會保障機構（喬1999）。然而，21世紀早期，從計劃經(jīng)濟向市場體制轉換將會加劇解決問題的難度（喬1998）。即使一般老齡化的趨勢在中國農(nóng)村和城市地區(qū)相似，由于不同的社會經(jīng)濟體制，具體的老齡化問

4、題有很大的不同。城市地區(qū)的體系類似于其他國家，但農(nóng)村地區(qū)的體系是完全不同的。世界幾乎沒有哪個地方會像中國的農(nóng)村的老齡化普遍。它的問題是特殊的，值得特別思考的。農(nóng)村與城市之間存在的主要差異：1、 城鎮(zhèn)居民在企業(yè)、事業(yè)單位工作，他們每月所賺的固定工資收入普遍高于農(nóng)村居民的收入。而在農(nóng)村地區(qū)，人們都是考農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)賺錢，收入既低又不穩(wěn)定。2、 由于農(nóng)村居民受戶籍制度的限制，他們在城鎮(zhèn)尋找就業(yè)機會不同。盡管局勢由于經(jīng)濟改革、數(shù)百萬農(nóng)村地區(qū)的人們在城市工作而大大改善，但仍有優(yōu)勢的職位限制農(nóng)村地區(qū)的人。因此，大多數(shù)人不得不留在農(nóng)村地區(qū)接受較低的工資。3、 由于在城市地區(qū)有較高的收入，居民的儲蓄也比農(nóng)村的居民多

5、。此外，城市的公共設施要比農(nóng)村的先進，包括通訊系統(tǒng)，交通設施，文化活動，健康和醫(yī)療體系等。在農(nóng)村，這些設備幾乎不存在。4、 在城市原有工作企業(yè)或機構擔保的離退休人員每月都可以拿到足以讓他們生活下去的退休金。這些離退休人員不必擔心他們未來生活中收入或者是否有能力工作的問題。農(nóng)村的人們則無法獲得這種金融保障或者退休選擇。他們必須自己建立自己的保障。如果他們不能做體力活，這就意味著他們不再有能力養(yǎng)活自己。然后他們必須依靠家庭其他成員或者政府。二、 中國老齡化問題一般來說，夫妻根據(jù)經(jīng)濟，傳統(tǒng)和精神上的需求而自主選擇他們所能承受的小孩的數(shù)量。在他們完成分娩之前，他們就會知道幾個孩子才是他們一生中孩子的數(shù)

6、量是適合自己需要的，也是適應將來孩子的生活的。在中國，例如，20世紀50年代和60年代，平均一對夫妻有6個孩子。他們知道作為當時高死亡率的結果，他們的一些子女可能會死亡。他們同樣知道他們必須有足夠數(shù)量的孩子，尤其是兒子，當他們老了的時候照顧他們，并且確保家庭下一代有了它的接班人。孩子的數(shù)量是由他們身體和精神的需求決定。社會經(jīng)濟水平越低，就越需要更多數(shù)量的孩子。然而，由于自然資源的限制和國家的發(fā)展，這種高生育率已經(jīng)不適合該國，即使它適合每一個家庭。因此，國家和家庭的需求出現(xiàn)了分歧。為了確保國家的發(fā)展和家庭的發(fā)展，中國必須實施計劃生育方案。因為該計劃是由政府而不是夫妻自己操作的，一個家庭中孩子的數(shù)

7、量可能不適合具體的需求和夫妻的考慮。這是真實的，特別是關于支持和照顧老年人的需要，假設在這期間社會經(jīng)濟條件傳統(tǒng)并沒有顯著改變。計劃生育方案實施以前，每對夫妻生育的平均數(shù)量為六。從20世紀70年代開始，中國開始普遍實行計劃生育方案。起初，對夫妻的生育政策人數(shù)約為二。盡管事實上這種限制沒有嚴格執(zhí)行，但是生育率下降仍然很劇烈。在短短的10年里，總生育率從1970年的5.81下降到1980年的2.24。1980年，政府通過了一項新的政策，要求城市和農(nóng)村的人們都只能有一個孩子。因為農(nóng)村地區(qū)的人們普遍很難接受一個孩子的政策，1984年政策有了調(diào)整，有了一份如果第一胎是女兒，允許他們生第二胎的政策調(diào)整；然而

8、，一個孩子的政策在城市卻生效了。新政策的波動所造成的總生育率在1980年代沒有任何明顯的下降。從1990年的人口普查數(shù)據(jù)估計，總生育率為2.31。自從那時起，生育率迅速地以意想不到的速度下降。1998年，總生育率降到1.76，這是根據(jù)國家統(tǒng)計局的出生率的估計而公布的。簡而言之，在30年期間，總生育率從1970年到1998年下降了70%（四個孩子等價）。在這同一時期，出生預期壽命也有所增加，從64歲增加到70歲。生育率和死亡率的下降最終確定了年齡結構的變化，或是老年人口的比例。中國瞬息萬變的生育年齡結構預示著隨后的變化。1982年65歲人口部分的比例只有4.92%，而1990年達到了5.58%。

9、在此期間，出生率的下降對總人口沒有造成影響。老化的第一過程是老年人的比例增加。由于出生率持續(xù)不變，出生人口在總人口的影響將是巨大的；也就是說，65歲及以上人口的比例將進一步加快。從比例的變化來看，我們預測這加速將從2010年左右開始，結束于2040年左右。這意味著，中國老年人比例增加最快的將發(fā)生在2010年到2040年之間（喬，2001）。2040年后，老年人口將達到平衡。也就是說，中國嚴重的老化問題將在未來10年里很快開始。當我們考慮到他在社會經(jīng)濟和體制框架內(nèi)，老齡化或者年齡結構的變化成為了一種問題，。雖然老齡化是一個必然的過程，社會經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展直接切換或生育率和死亡率的下降可能會導致與年齡有

10、關的問題，這些問題從國家到國家之間和地區(qū)到地區(qū)之間不同的人口老齡化的速度方面帶來的社會和傳統(tǒng)慣例，經(jīng)濟實力和社會經(jīng)濟制度。三、 農(nóng)村子女輔助老人的需求在中國，農(nóng)村和城市地區(qū)之間的情況是相當不同的。在城市地區(qū)，大多數(shù)人在退休后可以領退休金的企業(yè)或者機構內(nèi)工作。據(jù)1992年的調(diào)查（1994年中國老齡化研究中心），城市地區(qū)73.73%的老年人參與了養(yǎng)老金提供機構。但是在農(nóng)村地區(qū)，只有5.88%的老年人退休時能拿到退休金，94%的人不屬于任何機構，也沒有可用的退休養(yǎng)老金。因此，農(nóng)村的人們工作到?jīng)]有勞動能力的時候才失去工作，不像城市的人們到一個固定的年齡拿養(yǎng)老金。那些在農(nóng)村地區(qū)的沒有退休金，沒有儲蓄的老

11、年人在他們失去工作能力的時候怎么生活？有兩種可能的來源：他們自己的積蓄和子女的供養(yǎng)。他們晚年有足夠的儲蓄來生活嗎？根據(jù)1992年的調(diào)查，農(nóng)村地區(qū)只有13.77%的老年人有銀行存款，近84%的人沒有儲蓄。沒有儲蓄的老年人如何生活？根據(jù)社會習俗，老人必須依靠自己的子女，希望他們撫養(yǎng)和照顧自己。為了辨別年邁的父母得到了他們子女經(jīng)濟扶持的程度，我們可以從父母自己的收入和從子女那得到的經(jīng)濟扶持作比較。根據(jù)調(diào)查的最后一年，60歲及以上的老年人的平均收入為290.8元（人民幣），平均收益為274.72元，這占了兩者之和的48.6%，不包括其他來自于親戚，村莊以及城市的來源。這意味著老年人的子女提供幾乎一半的

12、財政支持他們以彌補他們儲蓄和收入的匱乏。如果我們把60歲及以上的老人按年齡組合分類，很顯然，老年人在晚年大力依靠他們的子女。隨著年齡的增長，老年人收入在下降而他們子女的收入在數(shù)量和比例上增加。60到64歲的老人只拿到他們子女收入的三分之一。70歲，一般的收入都是來自于子女。80歲之后，幾乎90%的財政負擔都依賴于他們的子女。這些數(shù)據(jù)反映了子女們的支持多么的重要，強調(diào)了老年人生活的質量與子女的支持有多么密切。這也表明了如果沒有子女的支持，農(nóng)村老人們的生活將有多困難，特別是沒有子女的老年人。然而，事實卻是隨著年齡的增長，從孩子那兒得到的總收入?yún)s減少了。這意味著，提供給年紀最大的老人的錢仍然不足，盡

13、管他們子女的貢獻超過了年輕老人的子女。資料來源：薩爾瓦多.中國農(nóng)村老齡化問題及政策選擇.EB/OL.46/Brazil2001/s00/S02_04_Qiao.pdf, 2001-08-20. IUSSPXXIVth General Population ConferenceSalvador, Brazil20th 24th August 2001Aging Issues and Policy Choices inRural ChinaXiaochun Qiao, Ph.D.CarolinaPopulationCenterThe University of

14、North Carolina at Chapel Hill123 West Franklin StreetChapel Hill, NC27516-3997Phone: 919-966-7413IntroductionThe current portion of the population aged 65 and over is not as high in China (around7%) as it is in other countries around the world (Population Reference Bureau 2000).However, the sharp de

15、cline in fertility as a result of an effective family planningprogramput into practice in the early 1970s mean that acceleration of aging-related problems willoccur in this century. The speed of the fertility decline could determine the rate at whichthe problem progresses progress and the extent of

16、the resulting consequences.Because of demographic transitions beyond socioeconomicdevelopment (Wu 1992; Yu1995; Zhang 1998), the contradiction between the agestructure and socioeconomicdevelopment and institution is inevitable in China. In order to study and highlight thisissue, a research group cal

17、led the Consequences and Countermeasures of the FertilityDecline in China was established in 1993.1 Researchers focused their studies onpopulation and socioeconomic consequences and targeted the policy implications towardthe fertility decline and the change in age structure (Qiao 1996). It became cl

18、ear that lowfertility is not always better than high fertility (Gu and Mu 1994). Chinas populationproblems began shifting from problems caused by scale to problems caused by the agestructure. As a result, the most important population problem facing China in this centurywould be aging (Qiao 1994). T

19、hese problems revolve around the relationships betweendemographic and socioeconomic factors (Qiao and Mu 1995). The aging problem is aresult of socioeconomic development and institutions that do not take into account thechanges in the age structure, rather than the opposite, that is, that the age st

20、ructure itselfdoes not fit with the changes in socioeconomic development. Hence, the problems can beresolved by adjusting social and institutional factors rather than adjusting demographicfactors such as fertility, mortality, and migration (Qiao 1997). The shrinking of familysize, due to the increas

21、e of one-child families will lead to dramatic changes in thetraditional family pattern of China (Qiao 1995). The 4-2-1 family pattern2 has occurredboth in urban and rural areas (Chen 1994). Because of increased life expectancy, healthyaging has become an important issue in the aging society (Board o

22、f the Journal ofPopulation Research 1995). The key to settling the problems of aging is to establish anew institution of social security for the elderly and to address these problems sooner(Qiao 1999b). However, the institutional conversion from a planned economy to a marketeconomy will compound the

23、 difficulty of resolving the problems in the early twenty-firstcentury (Qiao 1998).Even though the general aging trend is similar in both rural and urban areas in China,because of different socioeconomic institutions, the specific aging problems are quite different. The system in urban areas is simi

24、lar to that in other countries, but thesystem inrural areas is quite different. Almost no other area in the world faces the set of agingproblems that is common in rural China. Its problems are unique and deserve specialconsiderations.The following main differences exist between rural and urban areas

25、:1. Urban residents work in enterprises and institutions and receive regular monthlyincome that is higher on average than the income earned by rural residents. In ruralareas, people earn money based on agricultural work, and this income is both lowerand unstable.2. Because rural residents were limit

26、ed by the household registration system, it isdifferent them to find employment in urban areas. Even though the situation hasgreatly improved since the economic reform and millions of people from rural areasare working in urban areas, there are still many advantageous positions restrictedfrom people

27、 in rural areas. Therefore, most people have to remain in rural areas andaccept lower pay.3. Because of the higher income in urban areas, residents also have more savings thanthat of people in rural areas. In addition, public facilities in urban areas are moreadvanced than those in rural areas, incl

28、uding communication systems, the trafficsystems, cultural activities, and health and medical systems. In rural areas, almost nosuch facilities exist.4. Retirees in urban areas can be secured by their original work enterprises orinstitutions and can receive monthly pensions, which are sufficient enou

29、gh for themto live on. These retirees do not have to worry about income in their later life orwhether they have the ability to work or not. People in rural areas have no access tothis type of financial security or retirement options. They have to build their ownsecurity. If they cannot perform physi

30、cal work, it means that they no longer have theability to support themselves. They then have to rely on other family members or thegovernment.The Aging Problem in ChinaIn general, couples independently choose the number of children they will bear, basedontheir own economic, conventional, and spiritu

31、al demands. Before they finish theirchildbearing, couples may have a clear indication that the number of children they willhave in their lifetime is suitable to their own needs and also to their childrens lives in thefuture. The people in China, for example, had an average of six children per couple

32、 in the1950s and 1960s. They knew that some of their children might die as result of the highmortality rate at that time. They also knew that they had to have enough children,especially sons, to take care of them when they got older, as well as to ensure that thefamily had its successors for next ge

33、neration. The number of children they had needed tomatch their needs both physically and spiritually. The lower the socioeconomic level, thehigher the demand was to have more children. However, due to the limitation of naturalresources and the development of the country, this high fertility rate was

34、 no longersuitable for the country, even though it was suitable to individual families. Therefore, thedemands of the country and the family appeared contradictory. In order to guarantee thedevelopment of the country and to ultimately secure the development of the family,China had to implement a fami

35、ly planning program. Because the program was driven bythe government rather than by the couples themselves, the number of children in a familymight not be suitable to the specific needs and considerations of couples. This isespecially true with regard to demand for support and care by children for t

36、heir olderparents, assuming that the socioeconomic conditions and traditions have not changedsignificantly in the period.Before the family planning program began, the number of births for each couple averagedsix. Starting in the early 1970s, China began to universally implement a family planningprog

37、ram. Initially, the policy-required number of birth for couples was approximately two. Despite the fact that this limit was not strictly enforced, the decline in fertility wasstill drastic. Within only 10 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) decreased from 5.81 in1970 to 2.24 in 1980 (see Figure 1)

38、. In 1980, the government adopted a new policy,requiring people in both urban and rural areas to have no more than one child.Figure 1. Trend of TFR, 1970-1998012345671971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998Source: TFR before 1990 comes from Yao Xinwu and Yin Hua: Basic Data of China'sPo

39、pulation, China Population Press, 1994, p.144; TFR after 1990 was estimated from CBR,from the China Statistical Yearbook 1999.Because it was hard for people in rural areas to universally accept the one-child policy, apolicy adjustment was made in 1984 allowing couples to have a second child if their

40、 firstwas a girl; otherwise, the one-child policy remained in effect in urban areas. The newpolicy caused the TFR to fluctuate without any significant decrease in the 1980s. Theestimate from the 1990 population census data shows that the TFR was 2.31. Since then,the fertility rate dropped quickly an

41、d unexpectedly. In 1998, the TFR decreased to 1.76,estimated according to the crude birth rate (CBR) published by the State StatisticsBureau.3 In brief, over 30-year period, the TFR has decreased 70% (the equivalence offour children) from 1970 to 1998. During this same time period, the life expectan

42、cy atbirth had increased as well, from 64 years to 70 years.Declines in fertility and mortality ultimately determine the change of age structure, or theproportion of the elderly population. The rapidly changing fertility in China presages asubsequent change in age structure. The portion of the popul

43、ation aged 65 and over wasonly 4.92% in 1982 and reached 5.58% in 1990. During this period, the decrease in birthrate produced little impact on the total population. The increase of the proportion ofelderly would be smooth at the first stage of the aging process (see Figure 2). As thedecrease in the

44、 birth rate was sustained, the impact of the number of births on the totalpopulation would be significant; that is, the portion of the population aged 65 and overwould be accelerated. From the change in proportion, we predict that acceleration willbegin around 2010 and will end around 2040. This mea

45、ns that the fastest increase in theproportion of elderly in China will occur between 2010 and 2040 (Qiao, 2001). After2040, the elderly population will level out. This means that Chinas serious agingproblems will begin soon, within the next 10 years.Aging, or the change in the age structure, becomes

46、 problematic when we take intoaccount its context in a socioeconomic and institutional framework. Even though aging isa inevitable process, socioeconomic development that directly brings about transitions ordecreases in fertility and mortality may cause age-related problems that are different fromco

47、untry to country and area to area in terms of the speed of aging, the social andtraditional convention, the economic power, and socioeconomic institution.The Needs for Support of the Elderly by Children in Rural AreasThe situation between rural and urban areas is quite different in China. In urban a

48、reas,most people work in an enterprise or institution where a pension is available when theyretire. According to a 1992 survey (China Research Center on Aging 1994), 73.73% ofthe elderly were involved in pension-available institutions in urban areas. But in ruralareas, only 5.88% of the elderly coul

49、d get pensions when they retired, and 94% did notbelong to any institution and had no pension available for retirement.Therefore, peoplein rural areas work until they lose their physical ability to perform labor work ,unlikepeople in urban areas who have to retire at a fixed age.How do those elderly

50、 in rural areas who have no pension live without any income whenthey lose their ability to work? There are two possible resources: their own savings andsupport from their children. Do they have enough savings to live on in their old age?According to a 1992 survey, only 13.77% of elderly in rural are

51、as had savings in banks,and nearly 84% had no savings at all. How do the elderly without savings live?According to social convention, the elderly must depend on their children, who expect toprovide support and care for their aging parents.In order to discern the extent to which elderly parents had been financially supported bytheir children, we can compare the parents receipts from their personal earnings t