商務(wù)英語(yǔ)文章(帶中文翻譯)

1、（一）World economy The jobs crisis 失業(yè)危機(jī)Its coming, whatever governments do; but they can make it better or worse不論政府如何努力，失業(yè)危機(jī)已經(jīng)到來(lái)。不過(guò)政府可以在這場(chǎng)危機(jī)中起到關(guān)鍵作用Illustration by Belle Mellor NOTHING evokes the misery of mass unemployment more than the photographs of the Depression. You can see it in the drawn faces

2、 of the men, in their shabby clothes, in their eyes. Their despair spawned political extremism that left a stain on society; but it also taught subsequent generations that public policy has a vital part in alleviating the suffering of those who cannot get work. Thanks to welfare schemes and unemploy

3、ment benefits, many of which have their origins in those dark days, joblessness no longer plunges people into destitution, at least in the developed world.再?zèng)]有什么比關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條的照片更能讓人體會(huì)大量失業(yè)的痛苦。這種痛苦顯見(jiàn)于人們緊繃的面容，襤褸的衣衫，還有他們的眼神。由人們的絕望所引發(fā)的政治極端主義給社會(huì)留下污點(diǎn)；失業(yè)問(wèn)題也使后人懂得公共政策在減輕失業(yè)痛苦方面所起到的重要作用。很多福利計(jì)劃和失業(yè)救濟(jì)金方案都發(fā)軔于那些灰暗的失業(yè)時(shí)期；受惠

4、于這些計(jì)劃，至少發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的人們不再因?yàn)槭I(yè)而陷入窮困。Not even the gloomiest predict that todays slump will approach the severity of the Depression, which shrank Americas economy by more than a quarter, and put a quarter of the working-age population out of a job. But with the world in its deepest recession since the 1930s an

5、d global trade shrinking at its fastest pace in 80 years, the misery of mass unemployment looms nonetheless, and raises the big question posed in the Depression: what should governments do? 即使是最悲觀的預(yù)計(jì)都不認(rèn)為眼下的衰退會(huì)接近大蕭條的程度，后者使美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)縮水四分之一，四分之一的就業(yè)人口失去工作。但隨著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)自1930年代以來(lái)的最大幅度衰退以及全球貿(mào)易80年來(lái)的最快速萎縮，大規(guī)模失業(yè)的惡魘再度凸顯

6、，并且拋出了和大蕭條時(shí)期一樣的大問(wèn)題：政府應(yīng)該做些什么？Join the queue 加入失業(yè)隊(duì)伍In the rich world the job losses are starkest in America, where the recession began. Its flexible labour market has shed 4.4m jobs since the downturn began in December 2007, including more than 600,000 in each of the past three months. The unemploymen

7、t rate jumped to 8.1% in February, the highest in a quarter-century. An American who loses his job today has less of a chance of finding another one than at any time since records began half a century ago. That is especially worrying when the finances of many households have come to depend on two fu

8、ll incomes.富裕國(guó)家的失業(yè)問(wèn)題在衰退肇始的美國(guó)最為顯著。自從07年12月經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入低迷以來(lái)，美國(guó)靈活的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)溢出了440萬(wàn)份失業(yè)，其中在過(guò)去三個(gè)月內(nèi)每月產(chǎn)生了60萬(wàn)份。二月的失業(yè)率躍升至8.1%，是25年來(lái)的最高數(shù)字。比起有紀(jì)錄的半個(gè)世紀(jì)內(nèi)的任何時(shí)期，眼下失業(yè)的美國(guó)人更難再找到一份工作。特別是當(dāng)很多家庭的財(cái)政依靠雙職工收入的時(shí)候，這種情況尤其令人堪憂。But it is already clear that unemployment will strike hard far beyond America and Britain. In Japan output is plung

9、ing faster than in other rich economies. Although unemployment is low, rapid job losses among Japans army of temporary workers are exposing the unfairness of a two-tier labour market and straining an egalitarian society. 然而顯而易見(jiàn)的是，失業(yè)問(wèn)題的沉重打擊遠(yuǎn)不止于美國(guó)和英國(guó)。日本的生產(chǎn)量比其他富裕經(jīng)濟(jì)體下降得更快。盡管失業(yè)率尚低，但臨時(shí)工當(dāng)中快速增長(zhǎng)的失業(yè)大軍顯示了“雙層勞工

10、市場(chǎng)”的不公平性，加劇了一個(gè)平等社會(huì)中的緊張。In Europe joblessness has grown fastest in places such as Spain and Ireland, where building booms have crashed, but has only begun to edge up elsewhere. The unemployment rates in many European countries are below Americas, but that may be because their more rigid labour market

11、s adjust more slowly to falling demand. Given how fast European economies are shrinking, nobody doubts that worse lies ahead. By the end of 2010, unemployment in much of the rich world is likely to be above 10%.在歐洲，建筑業(yè)熱潮遭遇重創(chuàng)的西班牙和愛(ài)爾蘭等國(guó)失業(yè)速度增長(zhǎng)最快，而在其他地方則初現(xiàn)端倪。很多歐洲國(guó)家的失業(yè)率都低于美國(guó)，但也許這只是因?yàn)樗鼈冇懈訃?yán)格的勞工市場(chǎng)，從而對(duì)下降的市場(chǎng)

12、需求適應(yīng)更慢。面對(duì)著快速萎縮的歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)，沒(méi)有人會(huì)懷疑更糟糕的就業(yè)局面就在眼前。到2010年底，多數(shù)富裕國(guó)家的失業(yè)率可能會(huì)超過(guò)10%。In the emerging world the pattern will be different, but the outcome more painful. As trade shrinks, millions of workers are losing their foothold on the bottom rungs of the global supply chain. Poverty will rise as they sink into inf

13、ormal work or move back to the land. The World Bank expects some 53m people to fall below the level of extreme poverty this year.發(fā)展中國(guó)家的情況就不一樣了，只不過(guò)結(jié)果會(huì)更人頭疼。隨著貿(mào)易萎縮，數(shù)以百萬(wàn)計(jì)的工人正失去他們?cè)谌蚬?yīng)鏈條底端的立錐之地。他們轉(zhuǎn)向非正式工作或者回到農(nóng)村，伴隨而來(lái)的是貧困問(wèn)題的抬頭。世界銀行預(yù)計(jì)，今年將有約5300萬(wàn)人降到極端貧困線以下。 Politics dictates that governments must intervene en

14、ergetically to help. Thats partly because capital has taken such a large share of profits for so many years that the pendulum is bound to swing back and partly because, having just given trillions of dollars to the banks, politicians will be under pressure to put vast amounts of money into saving jo

15、bs. But help cannot be measured in dollars alone. Badly designed policies can be self-defeating. After the recessions of the 1970s and early 1980s, Europes rigid labour-markets kept unemployment high for decades.政治上，政府必須全力介入進(jìn)行援助。這一方面是因?yàn)槎嗄暌詠?lái)資本在利潤(rùn)中占去了很大份額，重心注定要返回；另一方面是因?yàn)榻o了銀行萬(wàn)億計(jì)美元的當(dāng)政者們承擔(dān)著巨大的壓力，需要大量注資來(lái)挽

16、救就業(yè)崗位。然而挽救不能僅以美元來(lái)衡量。錯(cuò)誤的決策反倒會(huì)弄巧成拙。自1970年代和1980年代初期的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退以來(lái)，歐洲缺乏靈活度的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)就使失業(yè)率幾十年來(lái)居高不下。Governments are piling in with short-term help for workers. In America, which has one of the lowest social safety nets in the rich world, extending unemployment benefits was, rightly, part of the recent stimulus pack

17、age. Japan is giving social assistance to “non regular” workers, a group that has long been ignored. In general, however, it makes more sense to pay companies to keep people in work than to subsidise unemployment. Many countries are topping up the earnings of workers on shortened weeks or forced lea

18、ve. 各國(guó)政府正為勞動(dòng)者提供大量的短期援助。美國(guó)的社會(huì)保障體系在富裕國(guó)家中處于最低，而最近出臺(tái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃中，擴(kuò)大失業(yè)救濟(jì)金惠及面恰恰是計(jì)劃中的一部分。日本為長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)受忽視的“非固定”勞動(dòng)者群體提供社會(huì)援助。不過(guò)總的來(lái)說(shuō)，比起失業(yè)補(bǔ)助，資助企業(yè)以留住員工才是明智之舉。很多國(guó)家通過(guò)縮短每周工作日或強(qiáng)制休假來(lái)滿足勞工薪資。These are sensible measures, so long as they are time-limited; for, in the short term, governments need to do all they can to sustain dema

19、nd. But the jobs crisis, alas, is unlikely to be short-lived. Even if the recession ends soon (and there is little sign of that happening), the asset bust and the excessive borrowing that led to it are likely to overshadow the world economy for many years to come. Moreover, many of yesterdays jobs,

20、from Spanish bricklayer to Wall Street trader, are not coming back. People will have to shift out of old occupations and into new ones.這些措施在一定時(shí)限內(nèi)是合理的：因?yàn)樵诙唐趦?nèi)，政府需要盡全力維持需求。只是哎呀，就業(yè)危機(jī)不大可能只在短期內(nèi)存在。即便經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退很快結(jié)束（而且?guī)缀醪豢赡馨l(fā)生），引起這場(chǎng)危機(jī)的陰云資金短缺和過(guò)度借貸將在接下來(lái)繼續(xù)籠罩世界經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)達(dá)數(shù)年。更有甚者，不論是西班牙的砌磚匠還是華爾街的交易員，很多昔日的就業(yè)崗位會(huì)一去不復(fù)返。人們將被迫告別現(xiàn)有職位

21、，轉(zhuǎn)行進(jìn)入新崗位。A difficult dance 艱難的舞步Over the next couple of years, politicians will have to perform a difficult policy U-turn; for, in the long term, they need flexible labour markets. That will mean abolishing job-subsidy programmes, taking away protected workers privileges and making it easier for bus

22、inesses to restructure by laying people off. Countries such as Japan, with two-tier workforces in which an army of temporary workers with few protections toil alongside mollycoddled folk with many, will need to narrow that disparity by making the latter easier to fire. 在接下來(lái)的幾年中，政治家們不得不做出一個(gè)180度的艱難政策轉(zhuǎn)

23、變：因?yàn)閺拈L(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，他們需要一個(gè)靈活的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)。這意味著廢除工作補(bǔ)貼計(jì)劃，去除受保護(hù)勞工的特權(quán)，以及幫助企業(yè)更方便地裁員從而進(jìn)行重組。像日本這樣具有雙層勞動(dòng)力結(jié)構(gòu)的國(guó)家，大量埋頭苦干的臨時(shí)勞工缺乏就業(yè)保障，而被嬌生慣養(yǎng)的上層員工卻能享受到多重保護(hù)。這種差別需要通過(guò)嚴(yán)格上層員工的裁汰制度加以消除。The euphemism for that is “flexibility”. The bare truth is that the more easily jobs can be destroyed, the more easily new ones can be created. The pro

24、grammes that help today, by keeping people in existing jobs, will tomorrow become a drag on the great adjustment that lies ahead. As time goes by, spending on keeping people in old jobs will need to be cut, and replaced with spending on training them for new ones. Governments will have to switch fro

25、m policies to support demand to policies to make their labour markets more flexible. That is going to require fancy political footwork; but politicians will have to perform those steps, because if they fail to, they will stifle growth.這些措施可以委婉地概括為“靈活性”措施。更直白的事實(shí)是，現(xiàn)有工作越容易被廢棄，新工作就越容易被創(chuàng)造。眼下這些保住人們飯碗的援助計(jì)劃

26、會(huì)在今后成為調(diào)整適應(yīng)今后形勢(shì)的拖累。隨著時(shí)間推移，用在保留人員舊崗位的指出需要削減，取而代之的是為新崗位培養(yǎng)勞動(dòng)者的開(kāi)支。各國(guó)政府需要從支持需求的政策轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榻ㄔO(shè)一個(gè)更靈活的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)。這種轉(zhuǎn)變需要富有想象力的政治謀劃，但確實(shí)當(dāng)政者們必須完成的步驟：因?yàn)槿绻麄儾贿@樣做，增長(zhǎng)將被遏制。However well governments design their policies, unemployment is going to rise sharply, for some time. At best it will blight millions of lives for years. The

27、politicians task is to make sure the misery is not measured in decades. 然而，不論政府政策制定的多么完美，失業(yè)率在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)仍將陡增。不過(guò)充其量它會(huì)在幾年內(nèi)讓數(shù)百萬(wàn)人的生計(jì)陷于困境。當(dāng)政者的任務(wù)是不要讓這場(chǎng)不幸延續(xù)數(shù)十年。（二）Chinas trade Surplus to requirements 順差的需要Why is Chinas trade surplus growing when its exports have collapsed?為什么中國(guó)的出口大幅下降時(shí)，貿(mào)易順差卻在增長(zhǎng)？THIS week revised

28、 figures revealed that China overtook Germany in 2007 to become the worlds third-biggest economy. At the start of last year China also looked set to become the worlds biggest exporter, but a slump in exports in the final months of the year meant they remained smaller than Germanys. Chinas exports tu

29、mbled by 13% (in dollar terms) in the fourth quarter, leaving them 3% lower in December than a year earlier. Despite this, Chinas trade surplus rose to a record $457 billion at an annual rate in the fourth quarter50% bigger than in the same period of 2007. What is going on? 本周，修正后的數(shù)字顯示中國(guó)在2007年已經(jīng)超越德國(guó)

30、成為世界第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。在去年初，中國(guó)也目標(biāo)成為世界上最大的出口國(guó)，但是年末數(shù)月出口的大幅下落意味著他們?nèi)匀慌旁诘聡?guó)之后。按照美元來(lái)計(jì)算，中國(guó)的出口額在第四季度下降了13%，比一年前同期少了3%。盡管如此，中國(guó)的貿(mào)易順差在第四季度卻以全年增速上升到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的4570億美元，比2007年同期增長(zhǎng)了50%。這其中到底有何玄機(jī)？In the first half of 2008 Chinas trade surplus did indeed shrink (see chart). But since then, although exports slumped, imports fell by much

31、 moredown by 21% in the 12 months to December. The slide in both exports and imports was exacerbated by the global credit freeze, which has made it harder for companies around the world to get letters of credit to guarantee payment. Imports were also dragged down by cheaper oil and commodity prices,

32、 and by weaker imports of materials and components used to make exports (over 50% of total imports). 2008年上半年，中國(guó)的貿(mào)易順差確實(shí)出現(xiàn)了縮水（見(jiàn)表）。但是自那以后，盡管出口大跌，但是進(jìn)口跌的更慘到12月時(shí)，12個(gè)月內(nèi)下跌了21%。進(jìn)出口雙雙下滑由于受到全球信貸停滯影響而加劇。這是因?yàn)樾庞脙鼋Y(jié)導(dǎo)致全世界的公司更加難以獲得信用證從而保證支付。出口同樣也受到拖累，其下跌主要是由于更廉價(jià)的原油和商品價(jià)格，以及原材料和用于出口產(chǎn)品的部件進(jìn)口（占到進(jìn)口總量的50%以上）表現(xiàn)疲軟。But a more

33、 worrying reason why China bought less from the rest of the world is that its domestic demand has weakened. Consumer spending and manufacturing investment have so far held up reasonably well, but constructiona big user of imported raw materialshas collapsed. 但是關(guān)于中國(guó)進(jìn)口下降的一個(gè)更令人憂慮的原因是：中國(guó)的國(guó)內(nèi)需求減小。消費(fèi)支出和生產(chǎn)投

34、資目前的收縮尚且適當(dāng)，但是建筑業(yè)作為進(jìn)口原材料的使用大戶也出現(xiàn)了急劇下滑。With most of the world in recession, Chinas exports will continue to slide this year. Nomura forecasts a drop of 6%the first annual decline for more than 25 years. Imports, on the other hand, are expected to increase. By mid-year, the governments planned massive

35、increase in infrastructure spending will boost imports of raw materials and machinery. If so, Chinas trade surplus will shrink in 2009.隨著全球大部分地區(qū)陷入衰退，中國(guó)的出口今年將繼續(xù)下滑。野村證券預(yù)測(cè)的下滑是6%，為25年來(lái)的首次下滑。另一方面，進(jìn)口預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)。到年中時(shí)，政府計(jì)劃的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投入大幅增長(zhǎng)將會(huì)推動(dòng)原材料和機(jī)械進(jìn)口。這樣的話，中國(guó)2009年的貿(mào)易順差將會(huì)縮水。The collapse in exports and the consequent job

36、 losses in southern China have triggered speculation that the government might try to push down the value of the yuan. But not only would this provoke a protectionist backlash from Americas new government, it would also do little to help producers. Chinas problem is weak foreign demand, not competit

37、iveness. The best way for China to support its economyand to help unwind global trade imbalancesis to bolster domestic demand. 出口劇減加上隨之而來(lái)的中國(guó)南方的失業(yè)會(huì)導(dǎo)致政府考慮人民幣貶值。但這將不僅激起美國(guó)新政府的保護(hù)主義反彈，對(duì)生產(chǎn)者也幫助甚小。中國(guó)的問(wèn)題是在于疲軟的國(guó)外需求，而不是競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。支持中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)乃至幫助全球貿(mào)易擺脫不平衡的方法，是加強(qiáng)內(nèi)需。One piece of good news this week is that, following interest

38、-rate cuts and the governments scrapping of credit restrictions, total bank loans jumped by 19% in the 12 months to December, up from growth of 14% last summer. China is perhaps the only big economy where credit growth has heated up in recent months. If that is sustained, it could help to boost dome

39、stic spending. 本周的一個(gè)好消息是：隨著減息和政府去除信貸限制，銀行信貸總額到12月的12個(gè)月中從去年夏天的14%猛增19%。中國(guó)也許是最近幾個(gè)月內(nèi)世界大經(jīng)濟(jì)體中唯一出現(xiàn)信貸增長(zhǎng)加速的地方。如果增速持續(xù)，它將促進(jìn)內(nèi)需支出。China certainly cannot rely on exports any more. Becoming the worlds biggest exporter will be of little comfort if global trade is spiralling downwards. 中國(guó)決不能再依賴(lài)出口。如果全球貿(mào)易持續(xù)下降，成為世界最大的

40、出口國(guó)亦將無(wú)益。（三）Chinas stimulus Got a light? 經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇已被點(diǎn)燃？Chinas big fiscal package may be starting to work中國(guó)龐大的財(cái)政措施可能已經(jīng)起效“ONLY when all contribute their firewood can they build up a strong fire,” says a Chinese proverb. With the world economy in its worst crisis in 70 years, every country needs to do its bi

41、t to rekindle global demand. The American government, which plans to run a budget deficit of 12% of GDP this year, has called on its Group of 20 partners to do more. Is China one of the misers? Its budget, published last week, showed that it plans to run a deficit of only 3% of GDP. Was the 4 trilli

42、on yuan ($586 billion) infrastructure package unveiled last November, worth 14% of GDP, a sham?中國(guó)有句民諺：“眾人拾柴火焰高。”隨著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入70年以來(lái)的最大危機(jī)，要重燃全球需求之火，各國(guó)都責(zé)無(wú)旁貸。美國(guó)政府計(jì)劃今年運(yùn)行占國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值12%的財(cái)政赤字，并號(hào)召二十國(guó)集團(tuán)的伙伴們作出更多行動(dòng)。中國(guó)是其中的吝嗇鬼嗎？它在上周公布的預(yù)算顯示，中國(guó)計(jì)劃運(yùn)行的財(cái)政赤字只占GDP的3%。難道去年十一月公布的4億元用于基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)的措施相當(dāng)于GDP的14%僅僅是在忽悠？Beijings stimulus is s

43、maller than the number announced last year, but it is still the biggest in the world. The fact that America is set to run a budget deficit four times the size of Chinas as a share of GDP does not mean its demand stimulus is bigger; America started this year with a much bigger deficit. Americas defic

44、it will increase by more than Chinas this year, largely because it is suffering a deeper recession which will depress tax revenue. The correct measure of a fiscal stimulus is the change in the budget deficit adjusted for the impact of the economic cycle. 北京的刺激計(jì)劃小于去年公布的數(shù)字，但這依然是世界范圍內(nèi)最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案。盡管美國(guó)運(yùn)行的財(cái)

45、政赤字是中國(guó)的四倍，但這并不意味著它的需求性刺激計(jì)劃就更大。美國(guó)從今年開(kāi)始就保持了巨大的財(cái)政赤字，并且年內(nèi)赤字增長(zhǎng)將高于中國(guó)。這主要是因?yàn)槊绹?guó)遭受的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退極大地減少了稅收。財(cái)政刺激方案的正確措施應(yīng)該是調(diào)整財(cái)政赤字以適應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)圈的沖擊。In China, however, even this would understate the true stimulus, because some public-infrastructure investment will be done by state-owned firms or local governments and financed by b

46、anks. Tao Wang of UBS estimates that new infrastructure investment, tax cuts, consumer subsidies and increased spending on health care will amount to a stimulus by the central government of about 3% of GDP in 2009. Adding in bank-financed infrastructure spending might lift the total to 4% of GDP. 然而

47、在中國(guó)，經(jīng)濟(jì)赤字掩蓋了真實(shí)的刺激方案，因?yàn)橐恍┕不A(chǔ)設(shè)施投資是由銀行提供資金、國(guó)有公司或地方政府實(shí)施的。瑞銀的陶旺（音）預(yù)計(jì)，新的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)、減稅、消費(fèi)補(bǔ)貼以及醫(yī)療方面的投資增長(zhǎng)將構(gòu)成總額占到GDP3%的09年中央政府刺激方案。如果加上由銀行提供資金支持的基建支出，整個(gè)刺激方案將占到GDP的4%。Chinese investment in railways, roads and power grids is already booming. In the first two months of this year, total fixed investment was 30% higher

48、 in real terms than a year earlier, and investment in railways tripled. China has been much criticised for focusing its stimulus on investment, rather than consumption, but in China in the short term this is the quickest way to boost domestic demand.中國(guó)在鐵路、公路和電網(wǎng)方面的投資已經(jīng)大規(guī)模展開(kāi)。今年頭兩個(gè)月內(nèi)，固定投資總額較去年同期增長(zhǎng)30%，鐵

49、路投資增長(zhǎng)了3倍。很多批評(píng)認(rèn)為，中國(guó)的刺激方案集中于投資而不是消費(fèi)，但就短期來(lái)看，在中國(guó)這是提高國(guó)內(nèi)需求最立竿見(jiàn)影的方式。What about the other tool for boosting domestic spending, namely monetary policy? Since the start of last year, China has cut its interest rates by only half as much as Americas Federal Reserve has. New figures showing that consumer prices

50、 fell by 1.6% in the year to February have brought the first whiff of deflation, suggesting that China has not done enough to boost demand. But this is not true deflation, where falling prices are accompanied by shrinking money supply and credit. Bank lending grew by 24% over the past year. The true

51、 gauge of monetary easing is not the cut in interest rates, but whether it succeeds in spurring new lending. China is one of the few countries in the world where credit has accelerated since the start of the global credit crunchthough some of the lending is of the state-directed sort. 那么作為提高國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)另一手段

52、的貨幣政策又運(yùn)用的怎樣？從去年年初開(kāi)始，中國(guó)已經(jīng)將利率砍到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的一半。新的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字顯示，到二月，消費(fèi)品價(jià)格較去年下降了1.6%，從而帶來(lái)了第一輪通貨緊縮。這似乎意味著中國(guó)在提高需求方面做的尚且不夠。但其實(shí)，這并不是真正的通貨緊縮。真正的通縮情況下，貨幣供應(yīng)和信貸會(huì)隨著物價(jià)下降而萎縮。去年，銀行借貸增長(zhǎng)了24%。對(duì)銀根放松的正確估量并非基于利率，而是其是否成功刺激新的借貸產(chǎn)生。中國(guó)作為世界上少有的幾個(gè)國(guó)家，其借貸規(guī)模在全球信貸危機(jī)爆發(fā)后不降反升盡管部分借貸是在國(guó)家指導(dǎo)下進(jìn)行的。China has not only accomplished considerable fiscal and mon

53、etary easing. By allowing the yuan to rise by 18% in trade-weighted terms over the past 12 months, Beijing is passing on some of that boost to the rest of the world.中國(guó)不僅完成了規(guī)模可觀的財(cái)政和銀根放松計(jì)劃，還通過(guò)讓人民幣在過(guò)去12個(gè)月內(nèi)升值18%（貿(mào)易加權(quán)考慮在內(nèi)），部分促進(jìn)了世界貨幣經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。The real question is whether Chinas stimulus is big enough? Exports

54、fell by a sharper-than-expected 26% in the year to February and may yet drop further. The 12-month rate of growth in industrial production also dropped to only 3.8% in the first two months of 2009, and retail-sales growth slowed to 15%. But there are some tentative signs of a recovery in domestic de

55、mand. As well as the increases in investment and bank lending, car sales and electricity consumption have picked up. Mingchun Sun of Nomura reckons that the stimulus will be enough to achieve 8% growth this year. But the government has made it clear that if the economy remains feeble, it will supply

56、 another fiscal boost. 真正的問(wèn)題是：中國(guó)的貿(mào)易刺激方案數(shù)量是否已經(jīng)夠大？到今年二月，年出口額下降遠(yuǎn)超預(yù)期，達(dá)26%，并且可能繼續(xù)下挫。工業(yè)生產(chǎn)12個(gè)月增幅在09年頭兩個(gè)月已將至3.8%，零售業(yè)增長(zhǎng)放緩至15%。但是仍然有一些國(guó)內(nèi)需求復(fù)蘇的暫時(shí)性指標(biāo)。除了投資和銀行貸款增長(zhǎng)外，汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)售和電力消費(fèi)同樣得到提振。野村證券的孫明春（音）認(rèn)為，經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)8%的年度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。但是政府已經(jīng)明確表示，如果經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)疲軟，將會(huì)提供另外的財(cái)政提振方案。Such injections may be able to drag growth back to 8% this year, b

57、ut they cannot keep the economy running at this pace if global demand remains depressed. The need for China to shift the mix of growth from exports to consumption has become more urgent. Chinese officials are right to say that it will take years for higher public spending on health care and a social

58、 safety net to reduce household savingall the more reason to speed up such policies. If not, even Chinas fire could burn out. 這些注入或許可以把今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)拉回到8%，但如果全球需求持續(xù)悲觀，增速便難以維持。對(duì)于中國(guó)而言，出口轉(zhuǎn)內(nèi)銷(xiāo)的需要已經(jīng)更加緊迫。中國(guó)官員正確地表示，將會(huì)用數(shù)年時(shí)間增量投資公共衛(wèi)生和社保體系以降低居民存款，使得這些政策的加速實(shí)施更加名正言順。否則，即便是中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)火焰也會(huì)被撲滅。（四）The economys stumble經(jīng)濟(jì)的絆足Air pocket or second dip?氣囊保護(hù)還是二次淪陷？Oct 8th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DCFrom The Economist print editionA slump in September prompts thoughts of new stimulus9月經(jīng)濟(jì)大跌，新刺激方案提上日程AFTER riding a wave of improvement since the spring, the economy stumbled in September according