AutofactsFAPPresentation100901Excerpts(英文版)

1、Asia-Pacific Automotive OutlookUpside Scenario: Economic growths continues, infrastructure improves, and demand for new vehicles increases. Successful implementation of regional trade blocs and stable governments allow for the consolidation of operations across the region and the rationalization of

2、duplicate and non-competitive operations, allowing efficiency to accompany growth. Downside Scenario: Asias economic stimuli backfire and the region falls victim to another economic crisis. Trade blocs break down reinforcing barriers between markets. Political upheavals possible, perpetuating the vo

3、latility of the region. Worst case scenario: Large-volume assembly becomes viable only in the largest of markets, new foreign investment becomes unlikely due to regional instability. Significant parts of 1990s auto investments prove unsustainable in the long run.Asia-Pacific Business EnvironmentAsia

4、-Pacific, despite its challenges, remains undoubtedly the largest growth potential region in the worldAsia is witnessing strong, but fragile, recovery dependent on the ability to export and maintain economic and political stabilityHowever, it remains vulnerable to aftershocks following the 1997/98 e

5、conomic crisis since recovery is based on unsupported loansThe weakening US economy will directly affect profit levels in Asia as the US is a major destination for exportsFuture growth lies in emerging Asia-Pacific marketsChina/India domestic demand continues to grow spurred by a growing middle-clas

6、sSuccess of AFTA will allow for increased inter-regional business among ASEAN membersSouth Koreas growing domestic demand and increased exports are key to its growthAsia-Pacific- Region in FocusEmerging from a near crippling economic crisis the proverbial tiger is done licking its wounds and is read

7、y to roarSignificant market growth potential Political instabilityDiverse inter-regional market conditions Economic uncertainty continues to lingerAsia-Pacific Market OutlookAsia is seeing strong, but fragile, recovery: dependent on ability to export and maintain economic and political stabilityExce

8、ss CapacityUnitsUnitsAssemblyCapacityPotential Global Repercussions of Terrorist AttacksEuropeDirect: exports to US critical to German automakers, with weaker $ hurting repatriation even at stable volumesIndirect: overall weaker regional macro environment due to lower consumer confidence and reduced

9、 exports to US, confirming recessionary pressuresAsia PacificDirect: exports to US critical to Japanese & Korean automakers, with weaker $ hurting repatriation even at stable volumesIndirect: overall weaker regional macro environment due to reduced overall exports to US, exerting recessionary pressu

10、resSouth AmericaDirect: limited impactIndirect: global economic weakness likely to undermine already fragile regional macro environmentDirect: automotive trade impactIndirect: macroeconomic & other impactsAsia-Pacific economic growth remains dependent on exports and hence on the continued economic v

11、itality of North America. A significant downturn, especially in the US, would have a direct negative effect on the region.Terrorist Attacks Effect on Asia-Pacific Automotive IndustryBaseline scenario: Asia growth is flat from 2000 to 2001, due to previously expected continued decline in Japan and sl

12、ight decrease in output from South KoreaOverall regional growth returns to a conservative 3.5% in 2002Downside scenario: if a significant decline in US market occurs in 2002 due to weakening economic conditions, expected Asia-Pacific growth in 2002 could disappear due to reduced US import demand and

13、 a setback in Asian economic recovery trendsDrop in value of the dollar may remove Korean and Japanese exchange rate advantage, impacting profitability for Asian automakers and threatening the market opportunities their price advantage has given themHowever, Korean market share in NA market could in

14、crease if economic conditions get worse in near term (next six months and beyond) as lower cost, high value offerings from Hyundai-Kia become higher on consumers need to buy versus want to buy listDrivers of positive Asian market growth retain some independence from potential US spilloverChina WTO e

15、ntry in late 2001 will increase intra-regional export growth opportunities to China beginning in 2002-2003, although limited by likely Chinese government willingness to incur WTO sanctions to protect local industryASEAN economic growth and full implementation of AFTA hold promise for local automotiv

16、e industriesMany manufacturers will be rolling out regional manufacturing plans to take advantage of reduced protective tariffsStill, the improving, yet still shaky emerging market economies are very much at risk if global economy faltersAsia-Pacific Light Vehicle AssemblyGrowth coming from everythi

17、ng but traditional mainstay of Japan . as China takes an increasingly important, and potentially destabilizing, role.UnitsAsia-Pacific Utilization by CountryRate of plant rationalization in Japan matched by pace of assembly transfer South Korea: Local demand + export potential not sufficient to just

18、ify capacity Annual capacity remains three times local market demandHyundais plans for incremental NA and possible EU facilities could negatively impact utilization ratesKorea may have a Japan-like capacity correction in its futureRest of Asia China, India, Thailand combine for 30% of regional exces

19、s capacityResult of aggressive build up of facilities for over-estimated near-term demand DCX and GM alliances and acquisitions drastically change the distribution of volume growthSurprisingly, near-term growth expected from non-Asian VBEs if alliance strategies are executed successfullyAsia-Pacific

20、 Vehicle Brand Enterprise (VBE) Growth80%DCX, GM, Renault acquiring regional scale through Japanese and Korean partners; but success will only come by achieving profitable growth, a far more elusive goalAdequate utilisation rates remain elusive, despite divergent VBE regional strategiesAsia-Pacific

21、Vehicle Brand Enterprise Performance, 2000-2008 Avg.Asia-Pacific Emerging Market VBE Performance, 2000-2008 Avg.80%Despite DCXs gamble on acquiring high volume in Asian emerging markets via Hyundai investment, no one has solved the riddle of achieving operating excellence in these high-growth, but d

22、esperately complex and volatile set of markets. Does Asian risk promise worthwhile returns in an adequate time horizon?Mature Markets include:Australia, Japan, TaiwanEmerging Markets include:China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Thailand, VietnamAsia-Pacific Key Conc

23、lusionsAsia is less an regional story now and more a global storyIn marked contrast to the past, top four slots in regional growth are held by non-Asian brand enterprises Global VBEs have taken a “buy versus a “build brand and market share approachGM, Renault, DCX, Ford utilize Japanese and Korean b

24、rands for Asian entryLong-term market leadership dependent on ability to locally manage within a global strategyGrowth dependent on prospects of emerging markets with divergent characteristicsSouth Korea: mature industry scale, but developing market dynamics with high risks and heavy reliance on exp

25、ortsChina faces massive structural shiftWTO entry will increase foreign investment and hasten development of industryOutlook dependent on success of development of consumer market rather than government planned demandThailand seeks role as export center for intra-regional tradeASEAN auto industry be

26、tting that AFTA can be implemented and will boost trade in regionASEAN motivation to cooperate is from fear of losing investors to China post-WTO entrySo what do this competitive environment issues add up to for Ford?AUTOFACTS ASEAN AnalysisUpside Scenario: AFTA successfully implemented, regional tr

27、ade grows, governments allow businesses to make difficult choices (uncompetitive companies fail, old and excess capacity eliminated), China serves as engine for regional growth, and political and economic stability maintained across the region. If all this occurs, ASEAN will be key global growth reg

28、ion, a resurgent tiger, and will significantly exceed baseline volume predictions.Downside Scenario: AFTA fails due to countries pursuing own interests above region, China deflects significant growth from region, political upheaval and economic volatility continues, international or regional economi

29、c or political upheaval infects region. In worst case scenario, ASEAN exposed as poor location for high-volume auto production due to lack of scale versus other potential assembly sites (esp. China) and significant parts of 1990s auto investment proves unsustainable in the long run.ASEAN Business En

30、vironmentASEAN an incomplete attempt to form a successful regional trading blocComposed of hugely disparate countries: economically, religiously, ethnicallyGeography the only common threadNot surprisingly, cohesiveness of trade bloc remains under threatEx: Malaysias postponement of tariff reductionA

31、SEAN at key turning pointNeeds to finally successfully integrate free trade zone to counter emerging threat from ChinaWould allow Vehicle Manufacturers to consolidate operations rather than scattergun approach in every marketOr see ASEAN concept fall apartASEAN - Region in FocusA regional trade bloc

32、 still trying to get off the ground, just as the world seems to be doubting the benefits of regional trade bloc modelSeveral governments each with own agenda, limited physical infrastructures, growing consumer demand, more developed auto industrySingle government in favor of consolidated auto indust

33、ry, limited physical infrastructure, growing consumer demand, foreign ownership limitationsASEAN vs. ChinaASEAN Light Vehicle Assembly Moderate near-term growth potential in ASEAN countries. with Thailand accounting for nearly half of the growth within ASEAN.UnitsASEAN Assembly Growth by Segment Gro

34、wth in 2000-2008 will come mainly from mid and small vehicles. Pickup trucks continue to be a solid source of growth as Thailand solidifies role as global pickup assembly source, becoming the largest assembler of pickups in the world behind the U.S.A large portion of mid-size growth is pickupsASEAN

35、Excess Capacity by Country ASEAN countries account for nearly 17% of the average excess capacity within Asia-Pacific while contributing only 8.5% of overall assemblyNet New Capacity in ASEANMalaysias capacity growth is mostly attributed to Protons ambitious expansion plans. Most Thai capacity came o

36、nline in 2000future trajectory is not new investment but rather utilizing existing assets. Chinas capacity growth alone exceeds all of ASEANOver 700K units of negative capacity growth mostly due to plant rationalization in JapanASEAN Utilization by Country Though assembly volumes have quickly recove

37、red, utilization rates never return to pre-crisis levels during the planning window. Steady improvement may not be sufficient to sustain significant profitability.ASEAN Vehicle VBE Performance, 2000-2008 Avg. 80%Shared pain: All manufacturers are suffering from low capacity utilization in the region

38、. This can be attributed to the historic need to duplicate investment in each ASEAN country as well as cater to wildly divergent vehicle tastes, tax laws, and government protectionist measures.Goal of ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) is to reduce restrictive duties on over 80% of the flow of goods withi

39、n Southeast Asia.Aim: to allow region to compete with China and other emerging markets for precious investment capital.Includes tariff reduction to 5% or less for ASEAN assembled, completely built up (CBUs) light vehicles.Implementation requires full cooperation of member states - remains an uncerta

40、inty.AFTA will challenge protectionist national car schemes such as Proton, Perodua, and Timor.As well as uneconomic older capacity throughout the region.Already, Malaysia is balking by delaying implementation of automotive tariff reductions until 2005 so that Proton and Perodua can try and prepare for the new competition.AFTA will encourage development of regional industry specialists such as the Thai components parts industry or Singapore life sciences, at the expense of inefficient and overlapping national operations.