經(jīng)營冒險的計劃(1)ppt課件

1、Project Risk ManagementorHelping teams to take risks Contents Need/benefits of Risk Management Definition of Risk Philosophy of Risk Management Integration within IPM Risk Quick Scan Risk Diagnosis Methodology Final thoughts and adviceWhy Manage Risk?“In a rapidly changing world, XXX needs to be qui

2、cker to anticipate change, faster to act and even more enterprising. Currently, we are too inward-looking and possibly risk-averse. To accelerate growth, XXX must have the look and feel of an organisation with a single-minded passion for winning.There are six mandatories that the UEC insists that ea

3、ch and every Operating Company abides by (which may be subject to Audit scrutiny): .There is a formal process for monitoring risk.The XXX IPM Guidelinesfor Senior ManagementWhat is Risk? In English it is derived from the early Italian risacore- meaning to dare Oxford English Dictionary: Hazard, dang

4、er; exposure to mischance or peril The chance of hazard of commercial loss considered the source of profit Some peoples idea of Risk Management“Zaphod. put on the sunglasses. They were a double pair of Joo Janta 200 Super Chromatic Peril Sensitive sunglasses, which had been specially designed to hel

5、p people develop a relaxed attitude to danger. At the first hint of trouble they turn totally black and thus prevent you seeing anything that might harm you. D Adams, “The Restaurant at the End of the UniverseTopics for DiscussionWhat does risk mean to you?What happens if you ignore risk? Is risk go

6、od or bad?Food for Thought“And the trouble is, if you dont risk anything, you risk even more. Erica Jong“Avoiding danger is no safer in the long run than exposure. Helen Keller“A ship in harbour is safe, but thats not what ships are built for. William Shedd“Risk and reward travel side by side. Avoid

7、 one and the other will also pass you by. Anon“Half the failures in life arise from pulling in ones horse as it is leaping. Julius HareYou miss 100 percent of the shots you never take. Wayne GretzkyMore Food for Thought“Experience is not what happens to you, it is what you do with what happens to yo

8、u. Aldous HuxleyWhat lessons can we learn from the real experts in Risk Management, The Insurance industry?Another PerspectiveDefinitions in Insurance IndustryRisk is uncertaintySpeculative risk: Chance of gain or lossPure risk: Chance of loss only Loss: Negative impact of an eventPeril: Cause of a

9、loss e.g. fire, windstorm, explosionHazard: Increases chance of loss e.g. oily rags, unguarded machinesDefinitions in Insurance IndustryRisk Management in Insurance“Reduce riskReduce uncertainty of portfolio e.g. increase scale, diversify“Transfer riskContracts, e.g. reinsurance“Retain riskAccept re

10、sidual uncertaintyThese are the responsibilities of theunderwriter!“Reduce hazardReduce probability of loss e.g. dispose oily rags“Reduce lossReduce impact of loss e.g. install sprinklersThese are the responsibilities of theloss control engineer!Risk Management in InsuranceLessons from Insurance Ind

11、ustryGood portfolio managementBalanced portfolio can reduce riskGood project managementMust consider all potential problemsSpecialists can reduce probability of loss Planning can reduce impact of lossRisk is NEVER eliminatedHow is all this to be applied to Innovation Process Management?“Everything s

12、hould be as simple as possible, but not simpler.Albert EinsteinDefinitions at Project LevelRisk: probability of loss through the occurrence of an undesired eventProject Risk: potential for an undesired event to cause a project delay or failure and termination (Wasted resource and/or lost market oppo

13、rtunity)Corporate Risk: potential for a project to lead to material damage to a brand or the corporationIPM on Risk ManagementBalance effort with degree of riskLevel 1: Initial Risk ScreeningLevel 2: Risk Quick Scan (RQS)Level 3: Risk Diagnosis Methodology (RDM) All projects require a Risk Managemen

14、t PlanLevel 1:Initial Risk ScreeningFor rollout projects with familiar technology and materials onlyFour simple questions to considerIf any answer is yes/uncertain, proceed to the next level of analysis - the Risk Quick Scan. By definition Research Projects START assessment at Risk Quick ScanLevel 2

15、:Risk Quick ScanBroad overview of all perils and hazards Qualitative assessment Uses consistent, unambiguous definitions (anchored scale)If corporate risk is high, proceed to next level of analysis (RDM)Level 3:Risk Diagnosis MethodologyThorough, in-depth analysisUses trained Risk Analysis Facilitat

16、or to guide project teamIncludes individual interviews, detailed questionnaire, plenary session to debate issues and develop action plansComparison of RA LevelsRisk Management Plan: Required for Levels 2 & 3Track risk issues and actionsHelp teams and gatekeepersIncorporated into Gate documentThe Ris

17、k Quick Scan (RQS)Who/what should be present at an RQS Project LeaderProject BriefProject teamExpert adviceRQS pro formaRQS anchored scalesFacilitator?When to do an RQSMandatory that the team complete an RQS and action plan before the project charter is granted.Reviewed at subsequent gates and miles

18、tones.Reviewed after any substantial change in the project.“Does the project now require a full (RDM) analysis?The RQS may benefit from facilitation but this is not essential.What value does facilitation add to RQS?Gets Team to examine issues NOT just tick boxes Get team to re-examine assumptionsAdv

19、ise on best practice, specialist contactsLearn from other projects in same/different Category Get all team members to contribute Project Risk Potential for an undesired event to cause a project delay or failure/termination (wasted resource and/or lost market opportunity)1. Consumer Need2. Scientific

20、/Technical Feasibility3. Technical Complexity4. Technical/Professional Skills5. Evaluation Methods6. External Expertise/Technology7. External Credibility and Support8. Proprietary Position9. Freedom to Use10. Manufacturing & Supply Chain Capability11. Material Supply12. Regulatory Issues13. Unilever

21、 Safety Clearance14. Environmental Safety15. Distribution/Channels to Market16. Competitor Response17. Key Decision Points Identified18. Availability of Resources19. Accountabilities AgreedCorporate RiskPotential for a project to lead to material damage to a Unilever brand or the corporation1. Reput

22、ation2. Vulnerability to Challenge3. Strategic Importance4. Financial Targets5. Investment RiskWhy is corporate risk important ?Example Anchored ScaleMagnitude of response from 1-5How to Use the ScalesThe anchor points are intended to allow teams to gauge the magnitude of this particular risk for th

23、eir project. Some teams may need to use a range rather than one figureHow to Use the Scales Identifying the ISSUES for a project is more important than the exact rating (remember the rating is qualitative). The rating can be divided into : 1,2Low risk - still some issues which can be addressed3, 4,

24、5Medium to high risk - issues here MUST be actively managedRQS - spread of scores - questions to ask Is this a high risk project? Can we alone manage the risk? Who/what extra do we need? What do we wish to put in the gate document?If any Corporate Risk factor is 3 or above then an RDM is indicated A

25、 team can also request an RDM Risk Management Plan4 possible responses to Risk RETAIN if low risk exposure else.AVOID - if uncontrollable else REDUCE - take actions to control or TRANSFER (impact as well as actions)Decide on action plansWHO does WHAT by WHENPlan must be dynamic “No plan survives con

26、tact with the enemy WWII SoldierIf an RDM is chosen/indicatedDiscuss with senior members of your managementGatekeeper notifiedGatekeeper notifies Category SVPProject minuted at next International Category Board meeting The Risk Diagnosis Methodology (RDM)The RDMsurface &articulateall risksassessrisk

27、sobjectivelyprioritiserisks & risk-reducing actions1.2.3. decide who should be involved trigger list interviews capture risk issues questionnaire risk topography software plenary project re-plan?RDM Interviewing Ethosof Risk FacilitatorsKnowledge gap-fillingConfidentiality Non-attributable recordsSa

28、fe document handlingGuardian of “l(fā)one voiceNot problem solving. After the Interviews - Crystallising the Issues (by facilitators)Questionnaire Collation of risk issuesTranslation into POSITIVE RISK STATEMENTSTeam members score issues, facilitators analyse the resultsPlenary Session - Taking decision

29、s and ownershipSelect highest risk issues to be discussed for decisions and action planningConstruct agenda with PL/Plenary Chairman - what is wantedDecide with PL who should be present, in addition to the teamAdded value of RDMTeam REALLY think about the project and what they should do to ensure successThorough identification of all foreseeable risksIncreased team and stakeholder commitment Increased team confidence in ability to create success, improved team dynamicsComments from a team“It has cla