東盟消費(fèi)者：TIP 2020年展望

1、ASEAN ConsumerTIP 2020 Outlook: Prefer TH & PH staples; selective on ID namesThe demand environment is tough in Indonesia (ID) and Thailand (TH), but we believe their polar-opposite government social spending policy shifts support the case to own TH staples (THBEV, CPF) and avoid ID staples (ICBP) a

2、nd low-end retailers (LPPF). High negative earnings risk in the Philippines (PH), on the other hand, is a reason why we are OW on predictable compounder PGOLD and UW on JFC. Wallet-share shift towards spending on experiences is a reason why we like IDs high- end retailer, MAPI, and are UW on THs BJC

3、, IDs LPPF.Mind the macro-micro divergence. TH and ID macro environments look the toughest, but aggressive government stimulus programs along with company-specific growth options should allow TH to emerge with the most stable, predictable earnings growth in 2020E. Similarly, PHs macro and demand env

4、ironments are supportive but it faces the biggest negative earnings revision risk, in our view, due to bottom-up headwinds. ID, like TH, faces a challenging macro environment and government social spending shifts via a reduction of transfers and subsidies which are likely to weigh further on the con

5、sumption trend.Negative earnings risk. The confluence of factors consumption- unfriendly government and tax policies (ID and PH), and company- specific overhang (PH) poses risk to our universe 2020 8% EPS growth forecast, which is flat relative to the last-two-year average of 7%. PH faces the highes

6、t downward earnings risk followed by ID with TH relatively flat. We see the highest negative earnings risk in ID cigarette names, selected TH retailers, and PH big-market-cap names (JFC, URC, and FB).Dont go cold turkey yet on tobacco. We are OW on GGRM, HMSP, and LTG. The calls are not working, adm

7、ittedly. The names have reached what we believe to be rock-bottom, depressed valuations. Uncertainties surrounding excise tax hikes and the corresponding impact on demand elasticity as well as the rising trend of ESG investing, in our view, have contributed to the very weak share price performance.

8、We are cognizant that near-term earnings clarity (or lack thereof) remains a major risk to ID tobacco names, but we believe most of the aforementioned negatives are priced in. On a longer investment horizon, we prefer ID tobacco names such as GGRM given the ID tobacco sectors economic and political

9、importance (employing 5% of the labor force), more secure dividend stream, and strong position to benefit from the down-trading to high-tar cigarettes. We like LTG, but its inherent risk of being part of a diversified conglomerate where tobacco cash flow is parked mainly in FTC and/or utilized for t

10、he parent companys requirements is a major reason why we prefer ID tobacco names.Asia Pacific Equity Research04 December 2019Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines General RetailingJeanette Yutan AC(63-2) 8878-1188 HYPERLINK mailto:jeanette.g.yutan jeanette.g.yutanBloomberg JPMA YUTAN J.P. Morgan Securiti

11、es Philippines, Inc.Kae Pornpunnarath, CFA AC(66-2) 684-2679 HYPERLINK mailto:kae.pornpunnarath kae.pornpunnarathBloomberg JPMA PORNPUNNARATHJPMorgan Securities (Thailand) LimitedBenny Kurniawan, CFA AC(62-21) 5291 8024 HYPERLINK mailto:benny.kurniawan benny.kurniawan Bloomberg JPMA BKURNIA PT J.P.

12、Morgan Sekuritas IndonesiaAjay Mirchandani(65) 6882-2419 HYPERLINK mailto:ajay.mirchandani ajay.mirchandaniJ.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private LimitedKevin Yin(852) 2800-8521 HYPERLINK mailto:kevin.yin kevin.yinJ.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) LimitedSee page 104 for analyst certification

13、and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors s

14、hould consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. HYPERLINK / Jeanette Yutan (63-2) 8878-1188 HYPERLINK mailto:jeanette.g.yutan jeanette.g.yutanEquity Ratings and Price TargetsAsia Pacific Equity Research04 December 2019Mkt CapPrice Rating Price TargetCompanyTic

15、ker($ mn)CCYPriceCurPrevCurEnd DatePrev End DateBerli Jucker PCLBJC TB5,702THB43.25UWn/c43.00Dec-20n/cn/cCharoen Pokphand FoodsCPF TB7,612THB26.75OWn/c33.00Dec-20n/cn/cCP All PclCPALL TB22,347THB75.25OWn/c93.00Jun-20n/cn/cHome Product Center PclHMPRO TB7,037THB16.20Nn/c18.00Jun-20n/cn/cIndofoodINDF

16、IJ4.88IDR7,850OWn/c9,350Dec-20n/cn/cIndofood CBPICBP IJ9.17IDR11,100UWn/c10,700Dec-20n/cn/cJollibee Foods Corp.JFC PM4,281PHP198.00UWn/c175.00Dec-20n/cn/cLT Group, Inc.LTG PM2,418PHP11.40OWn/c20.00Jun-20n/cn/cOsotspa PCLOSP TB4,070THB41.00Nn/c38.00Dec-20n/cn/cMitra AdiperkasaMAPI IJ1.26IDR1,070OWn/c

17、1,400Dec-20n/cn/cGudang GaramGGRM IJ7.22IDR52,975OWn/c63,000Dec-20n/cn/cHanjaya Mandala SampoernaHMSP IJ16.98IDR2,060OWn/c2,600Dec-20n/cn/cPuregold Price ClubPGOLD PM2,242PHP39.85OWn/c51.00Jun-20n/cn/cRobinson Department StoreROBINS TB2,386THB65.00Nn/c66.50Jun-20n/cn/cRobinsons Retail HoldingsRRHI P

18、M2,034PHP74.95UWn/c67.00Jun-20n/cn/cSan Miguel Food and BeverageFB PM10,353PHP89.40UWn/c80.00Jun-20n/cn/cThai Beverage Public Company Ltd.THBEV SP16,281SGD0.89OWn/c1.00Sep-20n/cn/cThai Union Group PCLTU TB2,097THB13.30OWn/c19.00Jun-20n/cn/cUnilever Indonesia TbkUNVR IJ22.70IDR42,000Nn/c43,500Dec-20n

19、/cn/cUniversal Robina CorpURC PM6,263PHP145.00Nn/c160.00Jun-20n/cn/cMatahari Department StoreLPPF IJ0.75IDR3,650UWn/c3,270Dec-20n/cn/cSource: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. n/c = no change. All prices as of 04 Dec 19.Table 1: Share price return ASEAN ConsumerASEAN ConsumerID Consume

20、rTH ConsumerPH ConsumerASEAN*2010121%91%81%179%28%201132%35%18%45%-9%201213%-6%47%-9%19%2013-6%-20%-4%51%-7%201414%30%5%32%3%2015-6%-9%-18%-9%-21%201615%13%42%-10%3%201723%23%20%22%26%2018-13%-14%-10%-2%-11%YTD-2019-4%-21%24%-12%2%Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates *ASEAN/ID/TH/PH Consumer are

21、 market cap-weighted index consists of J.P. Morgan- covered consumer names across TIP markets. *ASEAN is MSCI ASEAN. *in USD returns.Figure 1: TH is winning, tobacco is lagging: YTD share price performanceSource: Bloomberg2RecPrice LCTarget PriceUpsideLC(%)Mkt Cap (US$MM)2018P/E (x) 2019E2020E2018P/

22、BV (x) 2019E2020E2018ROE (%) 2019E2020E2018Div Yield (%) 2019E2020EINDONESIA63,14025.426.626.319.020.318.569.956.956.43.33.53.7Table 2: ASEAN Consumer: Valuation comparisonGudang GaramOW51,700.0063,000.0021.9%7,04312.810.013.12.22.01.917.820.915.04.94.96.3Matahari Dept. StoreUW3,570.003,200.00-10.4%

23、7099.56.87.75.75.64.953.082.768.012.28.77.0SampoernaOW2,020.002,600.0028.7%16,63517.415.717.26.66.26.339.040.936.45.05.35.9Unilever IndonesiaN42,850.0043,500.001.5%23,14735.943.441.343.147.342.6142.9103.9108.62.02.52.2PT MitraOW1,040.001,400.0034.6%1,22223.517.512.93.22.82.315.516.919.70.40.91.2Indo

24、food CBPUW11,400.0010,700.00-6.1%9,41229.125.825.16.15.44.922.222.420.51.91.71.9Indofoos SuksesOW8,000.009,350.0016.9%4,97316.914.713.32.11.91.812.813.714.03.83.03.4PHILIPPINES28,13427.729.526.24.23.93.615.413.414.01.81.71.7Jollibee Foods CorpUW197.90175.00-11.6%4,25328.841.335.24.54.23.917.010.611.

25、61.31.00.9Robinsons Retail HoldingsUW75.0067.00-10.7%2,31621.026.120.91.61.61.58.56.47.51.00.81.0PuregoldOW40.0551.0027.3%2,26317.916.615.02.01.81.612.011.611.31.11.21.3Universal Robina CorpN149.50160.007.0%6,45435.730.829.93.93.83.611.212.512.42.22.22.2LT GroupOW11.5020.0073.9%2,4377.76.55.70.70.60

26、.610.110.510.82.71.71.7San Miguel Food and BeverageUW89.9580.00-11.1%10,41130.532.928.76.15.75.220.917.818.92.02.11.9THAILAND67,42127.825.122.25.65.34.719.920.621.52.32.12.4Charoes Pokphand FoodsOW26.5033.0024.5%7,53714.716.613.91.41.31.29.38.19.22.52.42.9Ostospa PCLN39.5038.00-3.8%3,91939.535.431.0

27、6.56.46.128.118.420.32.02.22.5Berli JuckerUW44.0045.002.3%5,82326.525.724.21.61.51.56.16.16.21.71.81.9RobinsonN65.0066.502.3%2,38424.324.223.14.03.73.417.215.915.42.12.12.2CP ALLOW75.0093.0024.0%22,25232.028.124.37.97.46.226.327.327.72.71.41.6Home Products CenterN16.3018.0010.4%7,08038.233.329.510.8

28、9.99.029.130.932.02.22.52.8Thai Union GroupOW13.1019.0045.0%2,06514.411.09.81.41.41.39.912.713.43.15.36.0Thai BeverageOW0.891.0012.4%16,36123.520.718.54.14.33.816.820.221.72.02.42.7ASEAN CONSUMER158,69526.826.524.510.711.010.039.033.834.02.62.62.8Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data, Bloomber

29、g3RecPriceTarget PriceLCUpside (%)Market Cap (US$MM)3-MOADT (US$MM)EPS vs. Con. (%) 2019E2020E2018EPS Y/Y (%) 2019E2020E2018Con. EPS Y/Y (%)2019E2020EINDONESIA63,1402-217.63.8-1.58.36.22.5Table 3: Earnings revision risk: EPS variance between J.P. Morgan and consensusGudang GaramOW51700.0063,000.0021

30、.9%7,0438.623-150.527.9-24.09.218.2-7.4Matahari Dept. StoreUW3570.003,200.00-10.4%7092.490-12-42.339.8-11.7-13.8-9.30.4SampoernaOW2020.002,600.0028.7%16,6358.37306.810.5-8.81.69.9-6.2Unilever IndonesiaN42850.0043,500.001.5%23,1475.631030.0-17.45.110.4-6.66.3PT MitraOW1040.001,400.0034.6%1,2220.70517

31、119.933.936.292.835.421.6Indofood CBPUW11400.0010,700.00-6.1%9,4124.093-320.512.72.714.413.29.8Indofoos SuksesOW8000.009,350.0016.9%4,9733.57210.214.510.6-8.617.511.6PHILIPPINES28,134-6-63.7-3.113.04.3-3.012.7Jollibee Foods CorpUW197.90175.00-11.6%4,2533.10-16-145.7-30.217.313.1-21.014.5Robinsons Re

32、tail HoldingsUW75.0067.00-10.7%2,3160.73-8-1-0.5-19.624.71.9-19.215.4PuregoldOW40.0551.0027.3%2,2630.892-15.28.011.06.61.213.7Universal Robina CorpN149.50160.007.0%6,4543.120-7-12.015.63.0-7.610.310.9LT GroupOW11.5020.0073.9%2,4370.78-4335.418.814.062.021.56.3San Miguel Food & BeverageUW89.9580.00-1

33、1.1%10,4110.36-8-75.7-7.214.7-4.9-6.513.6THAILAND67,42113-0.110.113.4-0.716.011.8Charoes Pokphand FoodsOW26.5033.0024.5%7,53725.7902-3.3-11.319.1-16.667.216.6Ostospa PCLN39.5038.00-3.8%3,91917.7500-16.511.414.1-13.06.414.9Berli JuckerUW44.0045.002.3%5,82316.66-1-529.33.26.121.96.810.9RobinsonN65.006

34、6.502.3%2,3843.19-4-99.30.45.010.31.510.1CP ALLOW75.0093.0024.0%22,25264.01565.713.915.46.99.614.5Home Products CenterN16.3018.0010.4%7,08013.031314.914.612.916.213.910.8Thai Union GroupOW13.1019.0045.0%2,0659.121417-11.030.213.0-18.713.210.5Thai BeverageOW0.891.0012.4%16,3617.90-40-19.113.711.8-15.

35、110.06.5ASEAN CONSUMER158,6950-17.65.37.33.88.88.2Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan estimates.4Table of Contents HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Key stock picks7 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Macro-to-micro divergence7 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Earnings revision trends10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Government stimulus, pol

36、icies abound12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Wallet share shifts: spending more on experiences15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 Tobacco and ESG investing17 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Country View: Thailand26 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Investment view and top picks26 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 Consumer staples26 HYPERLINK l _b

37、ookmark9 Discretionary, Retailers27 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 Country View: Indonesia29 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Investment view and top picks29 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 Retailers: Prefer high-end retailers30 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 Staples: Cautious but see pocket of opportunities30 HYPERLINK l _bookma

38、rk14 Country View: Philippines32 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 Investment view and top picks32 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 Stable macro but demand environment is mixed35 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 Share price performance: Two-years of negative share price returns HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 375 HYPERLINK l _bookmark

39、19 Berli Jucker PCL41 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 Charoen Pokphand Foods44 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 CP All Pcl47 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 Home Product Center Pcl50 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 Indofood53 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 Indofood CBP56 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 Jollibee Foods Corp.59 HYPERLINK l _bookmark

40、26 LT Group, Inc.62 HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 Osotspa PCL65 HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 PT Mitra Adiperkasa, Tbk68 HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 PT Gudang Garam Tbk71 HYPERLINK l _bookmark30 PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk74 HYPERLINK l _bookmark31 Puregold Price Club77 HYPERLINK l _bookmark32 Robinson Departm

41、ent Store80 HYPERLINK l _bookmark33 Robinsons Retail Holdings83 HYPERLINK l _bookmark34 San Miguel Food and Beverage86 HYPERLINK l _bookmark35 Thai Beverage Public Company Ltd.89 HYPERLINK l _bookmark36 Thai Union Group PCL92 HYPERLINK l _bookmark37 Unilever Indonesia Tbk95 HYPERLINK l _bookmark38 U

42、niversal Robina Corp98 HYPERLINK l _bookmark39 Matahari Department Store1016Key stock picksWe recommend investors position in TH consumer names with a preference for staples such as THBEV and CPF. We expect TH consumer stocks to sustain their outstanding 2019 share price performance on the TH govern

43、ments aggressive fiscal stimuli, availability of growth/turnaround options from international businesses, and stable margin outlook due to benign raw material prices. Our key TH OWs are THBEV and CPF. Wallet-spend shift and ongoing disruption by online commerce are reasons why we would avoid BJC and

44、 ROBINS.We are selective in ID with a key OW on high-end retailer MAPI due to its ongoing structural growth in sports/active division, and its play on the wallet-spend shift towards experiences. Conversely, we are UW on LPPF on the wallet-spend shift theme as well as the ID governments moves to curb

45、 direct transfers and subsidies, and increase healthcare premiums which affects the low-end consumers which LPPF caters to.Figure 2: ASEAN (TH, ID, PH) GDPgrowth trend and forecasts105.95.0 3.4 86420-2-42006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E2020E2021E IndonesiaThailan

46、dPhilippinesSource: Bloomberg, NSCB, J.P Morgan estimatesFigure 3: ASEAN (TH, ID, PH)private consumption growth trend and forecasts96.54.8 2.5 876543210We would avoid PH consumer bellwethers JFC and URC on significant negative earnings revision risk and still-lofty valuations. We prefer to stay defe

47、nsive with staples such as PGOLD due to its better earnings clarity, limited company-specific headwinds, and attractive valuations.Macro-to-micro divergenceDespite expectations of generally stable GDP and private consumption expenditure (PCE) growth trends, we note there is generally a divergence be

48、tween the macro and demand dynamics and their respective micro outlook.The TH demand environment looks tough on weak macro conditions but earnings growth is superior to that in PH and ID, on our estimates. The same goes for PH, which has a supportive macro and demand environment, but negative earnin

49、gs revision risk is the highest given company- and industry-specific factors. ID, like TH, faces a challenging macro environment and government social spending shifts via a reduction of transfers and subsidies which are likely to weigh further on the consumption trend.Figure 4: ASEAN Consumer Revenu

50、e, EBIT, earnings growth forecasts%2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E2020E2021EIndonesiaThailandPhilippinesSource: Bloomberg, NSCB, J.P. Morgan estimatesSource: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.7Table 4: ASEAN Consumer: TH, ID, PH revenue, EBIT, net income growth

51、trendREVENUE GROWTH20182019E2020EEB2018IT GROWT2019EH2020ENET INCOME GROWTH20182019E2020EEBI2018T MARGIN (%)2019E2020EINDONESIA8.37.05.33.412.8-5.15.313.2-5.514.615.413.9Gudang Garam14.912.04.9-0.225.2-23.30.527.9-24.011.613.09.5Matahari Dept. Store2.2-0.80.3-3.3-19.4-9.7-10.2-12.6-11.722.718.516.6S

52、ampoerna7.72.43.04.813.6-9.16.810.5-8.815.817.515.5Unilever Indonesia1.54.76.0-0.56.65.51.55.85.122.623.022.9PT Mitra16.011.815.834.425.728.9119.933.936.28.09.010.0Indofood CBP7.910.64.37.322.9-0.820.512.72.715.016.715.9Indofoos Sukses4.66.36.75.32.69.70.214.510.612.512.012.4PHILIPPINES13.611.611.96

53、.04.210.38.61.612.39.99.29.1Jollibee Foods Corp20.611.920.017.2-36.94.217.2-20.4-6.54.92.82.4Robinsons Retail Holdings15.024.17.35.1-3.717.82.6-11.224.74.93.84.2Puregold13.210.111.83.312.011.05.212.011.06.36.56.4Universal Robina Corp2.25.96.8-12.013.88.4-17.58.412.610.311.111.2LT Group18.613.112.523

54、.254.222.835.418.814.011.415.516.9San Miguel Food and Beverage13.88.511.98.4-1.36.75.7-7.214.716.014.613.9THAILAND7.85.46.25.022.59.4-21.936.614.46.47.47.6Charoes Pokphand Foods8.10.25.659.554.58.6-53.4513.919.13.14.84.9Ostospa PCL-6.16.35.05.28.214.06.111.414.115.015.216.5Berli Jucker4.71.63.58.0-1

55、.13.127.63.16.18.88.68.6Robinson3.3-0.60.49.72.15.47.10.36.212.012.413.0CP ALL8.09.79.03.010.611.15.114.615.46.36.46.5Home Products Center2.88.96.613.813.712.314.914.612.911.912.413.1Thai Union Group-2.4-5.25.4-3.515.69.5-45.974.213.05.06.16.4Thai Beverage20.916.44.1-15.439.79.9-46.325.614.910.112.2

56、12.8ASEAN CONSUMER9.07.16.94.615.53.9-5.921.36.310.210.810.3Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.Thailand: Gloomy macro, but most earnings clarityWhile the TH macro and demand backdrops are not encouraging, we expect our TH consumer universe to deliver a steady mid-single-digit

57、revenue growth and low-teen earnings growth. The margin uplift, in our view, emanates from a combination of benign raw material prices, leverage on faster growing offshore businesses (THBEV, CPF), and shift in earnings mix towards more service income (CPALL). Basic consumption is also likely to get

58、a boost from the TH governments back-to-back stimulus programs, with a bias for more given the governments ample fiscal space.Figure 5: Thailand Consumer Revenue, EBIT, earnings growth forecasts%Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates8Indonesia: Government spending shifts, excise impact weighs on e

59、arnings revision trendIDs PCE growth is stable, with foreseeable government measures rationalizing energy subsidies, cutting direct transfers, and raising healthcare premiums affecting basic consumption in the near term. Along with the steep increases in excise taxes on tobacco, we believe this will

60、 exacerbate the outlook for the Indonesia consumer universe, particularly staples. This drives our Indonesia consumer universes mid- single-digit revenue growth estimate and a y/y slip in earnings in 2020E.Figure 6: Indonesia Consumer Revenue, EBIT, earnings growth forecasts%Source: Bloomberg, J.P.