美國機械行業(yè)Q2業(yè)績預覽

1、Table of Contents HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Valuation4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 FundamentalsInManufacturing7 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Bright Spot in US: PublicConstructionSpending8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 NA Truck: Risks Growing10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 EU Truck Registrations Strong YTD11 HYPERLINK l _bookm

2、ark5 Automotive Production Forecasts RevisedDownAgain12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 ChallengingAgricultureFundamentals13 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Rig Counts and Well CompletionsBearWatching15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 China Machinery SalesStrongYTD16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Pricing Power RemainsIn Focus17 HYPE

3、RLINK l _bookmark10 Earnings Summary19 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 EarningsSchedule20 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 ActuantCorp21 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 AGCOCorp.22 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 AllisonTransmission Holdings23 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 Caterpillar Inc.24 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 CNHIndustrial25 HYPERL

4、INK l _bookmark17 CumminsInc26 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 Deere & Co.27 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 Eaton Corp.28 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 Illinois Tool Works29 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 KennametalInc.30 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 Manitowoc Co.31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 Milacron32 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 Navista

5、rIntl33 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 Oshkosh Corp.34 HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 PACCARInc.35 HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 ParkerHannifin36 HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 Terex Corp37 HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 TrimbleInc38 HYPERLINK l _bookmark30 WABCO39ValuationThe S&P the YTD vs. up our 18% top (up OSK (up and 7%) and T

6、EX (up By our was up 22% YTD the was 13%, the was up and the was upTable 1: Total Shareholder ReturnsCoverage Universe Relative PerformanceTotalShareholderReturns2009201020112012201320142015201620172018Q2192019YTDS&PS&P 500 Index26%15%2%16%32%14%1%12%22%-4%4%20%S&P 500 Machinery Index40%54%-10%17%27

7、%4%-15%34%42%-15%4%17%Construction & EnginesCAT33%69%-1%2%3%3%-23%42%75%-18%1%7%CMI75%143%-19%25%33%4%-37%61%33%-22%9%27%MTW17%32%-29%72%49%-5%-30%84%64%-62%8%14%OSK321%-5%-39%39%70%-2%-18%68%42%-32%12%37%TEX14%57%-56%108%50%-33%-33%73%54%-42%-2%8%TRMB17%58%9%38%16%-24%-19%41%35%-19%12%37%Constructi

8、on & Engines - Average80%59%-23%47%37%-9%-27%61%51%-32%7%22%Construction & Engines - Median25%58%-24%38%41%-4%-27%65%48%-27%9%21%Diversified IndustrialsATU-2%44%-15%23%31%-26%-12%8%-2%-17%2%10%ETN33%64%-12%29%44%-8%-21%34%22%-10%4%19%ITW41%14%-10%34%41%15%0%35%39%-22%6%17%KMT20%55%-6%11%32%-30%-45%6

9、8%58%-30%1%3%MCRNNANANANANANA-37%49%3%-38%22%17%PH29%63%-10%14%54%2%-23%48%45%-24%0%11%Diversified Industrials - Average24%48%-11%22%41%-9%-23%40%27%-23%6%13%Diversified Industrials - Median29%55%-10%23%41%-8%-22%41%30%-23%3%14%Truck and Truck ComponentsALSNNANANA-10%38%25%-22%33%30%3%4%4%CMI75%143%

10、-19%25%33%4%-37%61%33%-22%9%27%NAV81%50%-35%-43%75%-12%-74%255%37%-39%7%29%PCAR29%60%-32%25%35%18%-27%38%15%-15%6%25%WBC65%136%-29%50%43%12%-2%4%35%-25%1%23%Truck and Components - Average62%97%-29%10%45%9%-32%78%30%-20%5%22%Truck and Components - Median70%98%-31%25%39%8%-32%50%34%-24%6%26%Ag Machine

11、ryAGCO37%57%-15%14%21%-23%1%29%25%-21%12%38%CNHINANANANA33%-27%-13%30%56%-30%3%15%DE45%56%-5%14%8%-1%-11%39%55%-3%4%11%Ag Machinery - Average41%56%-10%14%21%-17%-8%32%45%-18%6%21%Ag Machinery - Median41%56%-10%14%21%-23%-11%30%55%-21%4%15%Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.The S&P Machinery Index is now

12、 trading at 14.4x 2019 EPS estimates (vs. three- year average of 17.2x), 3.5 turns below the S&P 500 index; our coverage universe is trading at 12.9x consensus 2019 EPS. The construction group is trading at 9.9x 2019E EPS (vs. three-year average forward P/E of 16.7x). The diversified industrial grou

13、p is trading at 14.3x 2019E EPS (vs. three-year average 16.6x). The truck group is trading at 11.2x 2019E EPS (vs. three-year average 17.5x). The agricultural equipment group is trading at 14.4x 2019E EPS (vs. three-year average 18.3x).Table 2: Multiples Remain Relatively CompressedTSR % 07/09/19YTD

14、3Y Avg2Y Forward P/E Multiple1Y Avg20192020S&PS&P 50020%17.2x17.0 x16.4x17.9x16.1xS&P Machinery17%17.2x15.7x13.8x14.4x13.7xConstruction & EnginesCaterpillar Inc7%18.7x14.3x11.0 x10.8x10.3xCummins Inc27%13.5x11.9x9.8x10.3x11.3xManitowoc Co14%NANANA12.2x9.7xOshkosh Corp37%15.3x13.7x10.5x11.2x10.7xTere

15、x Corp8%19.2x14.5x9.4x7.2x7.4xAverage (ex-MTW)20%16.7x13.6x10.2x9.9x9.9xTrimble37%21.6x21.0 x19.0 x21.6x19.3xDiversified IndustrialsActuant Corp-A10%21.6x21.4x20.6x19.0 x17.2xEaton Corp Plc19%14.8x14.5x13.6x13.6x12.8xIllinois Tool Works17%19.8x19.4x17.7x18.4x17.3xKennametal Inc3%16.4x13.9x11.7x10.8x

16、10.2xMilacron Holding17%10.0 x9.7x8.9x10.2x8.4xParker Hannifin11%17.1x16.0 x14.4x13.9x12.9xAverage13%16.6x15.8x14.5x14.3x13.1xTruck & Truck ComponentsAllison Transmission4%11.7x10.4x9.6x9.0 x9.2xCummins Inc27%13.5x11.9x9.8x10.3x11.3xNavistar Intl29%30.5x14.9x10.1x8.3x12.0 xPACCAR Inc25%13.9x12.3x10.

17、5x10.5x12.3xWABCO Holdings Inc23%17.7x17.4x15.7x17.9x17.1xAverage22%17.5x13.4x11.1x11.2x12.4xAgricultural MachineryAGCO Corp38%18.4x16.3x14.0 x15.6x14.0 xDeere & Co11%17.6x15.3x13.4x15.7x12.3xCNH Industrial15%18.8x16.5x12.7x11.8x10.8xAverage21%18.3x16.0 x13.4x14.4x12.3xSource: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan

18、 estimates.Figure 1: In January, Our Coverage Was Trading At 11.6x 2019E TEX (7x, 45%)MTW (13x, 181%)1 St. DevOSKAGCODENAVKMTPHTRMBAvg. 2019 EPS GrowthCAT ETN CNHIATUMCRNWBCITWPCARCMIALSNTEX (7x, 45%)MTW (13x, 181%)1 St. DevOSKAGCODENAVKMTPHTRMBAvg. 2019 EPS GrowthCAT ETN CNHIATUMCRNWBCITWPCARCMIALS

19、N2019 EPS Growth (JPMe)2019 EPS Growth (JPMe)5%-5%Avg. Fwd P/E Multiple-15%Avg. Fwd P/E Multiple-25%3x5x7x9x11x13x15x17x19x21x23xForward P/E MultipleSource: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates as of January 1, 2019.Figure 2: Now The Group Average Multiple Has Expanded To 13.6x Our 2019E EPSEarnings Gro

20、wth vs. Forward P/E Multiple (2019)TEX (7x, 51%)MTW (12x, 233%)AGCOOSK1 St. DevKMTCNHIAvg. 2019 EPS GrowthPHETNATUPCARCMIDETRMBITWALSNWBCAGCOOSK1 St. DevKMTCNHIAvg. 2019 EPS GrowthPHETNATUPCARCMIDETRMBITWALSNWBCMCRNNAV (17x, -26%)2019 EPS Growth (JPMe)2019 EPS Growth (JPMe)5%-5%Avg. Fwd P/E Multiple

21、-15%Avg. Fwd P/E Multiple-25%3x5x7x9x11x13x15x17x19x21xForward P/E MultipleSource: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.Fundamentals In ManufacturingThe JPM global manufacturing PMI declined 3.5-pts YoY to 49.4 in June, down 0.4- pts MoM. The ISM US Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.7 in June, down from 5

22、2.1 in May; the New Orders component was 50.0 in June, down 2.7-pts MoM and down 13.0-pts YoY. The data suggest that the pace of industrial activity decelerated in the quarter; the New Orders index was at 50 (i.e., no growth) after 41 consecutive months of above 50 (signaling expansion). The Caixin

23、China manufacturing PMI was 49.4 in June (down 1.2-pts MoM and down 1.6-pts YoY), signaling contraction (below 50) for the second consecutive month. Similarly, the Markit Eurozone PMI came in at 47.6 in June (down 0.1-pt MoM and down 7.3-pts YoY), the second lowest reading since April 2013.Figure 3:

24、 JPM Global Manufacturing PMI At 49.4InJun19Figure 4: ISM US Manufacturing PMI At 51.7 InJun19J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI80ISM US ManufacturingPMI7060Index LevelIndex Level50Index LevelIndex Level403020Source: Bloomberg,J.P.Morgan.Source: Bloomberg, ISM, J.P.Morgan.Figure 5: Caixin China Ma

25、nufacturing PMI At 49.4In Jun19Figure 6: Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI At 47.6 InJun19706050403020706050403020Index LevelIndex Level706050403020706050403020Index LevelIndex LevelSource: Bloomberg, Markit,J.P.Morgan.Source: Bloomberg, Markit, J.P. Morgan.Bright Spot in US: Public Construction Spe

26、ndingFigure 7: Private Non-Residential Spending Up 0.7% In Q219TD.Private Construction Spending: Non-Residential (SAAR, $MM)Figure 8: .But The 3M ROC Is Deteriorating0.6500,000454,290450,000400,000350,000414,495Rate Of Change (x)300,000Rate Of Change (x)250,000200

27、,000150,000100,000Source: US Census Bureau, J.P. Morgan.3MROC12MROCMean +1 St. Dev -1 St.DevSource: US Census Bureau, J.P. Morgan.Figure 9: Total Public Spending Up 12.8% In Q219TDTotal Public Construction Spending (SAAR, $MM)340,635325,481400,000340,635325,481300,000200,000Figure 10: .The 3M ROC Tr

28、end May Be PeakingTotal Value Of Public Construction Put In Place (SAAR)1.2Rate Of Change (x)1.1Rate Of Change (x)1.00.9100,0001999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190.81999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2

29、012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 3MROC12MROCMean +1 St. Dev -1 St.DevSource: US Census Bureau,J.P.Morgan.Source: US Census Bureau, J.P. Morgan.Figure 11: State & Local Contract Awards For Highways At A PeakState & Local Contract Awards (Trailing 12 Months, $B)Figure 12:Airport Investments Up 2

30、5%Value Of Airport Terminal & Runway Construction Work (January-July)$B$14$12$10$8$6$4$2$0Aug11Aug12Aug16Aug17$0Aug18Source: ARTBA.Highways BridgesSource: ARTBA.Real$BNominal$BFigure 13: State Budgets Mostly Supportive Of Continued InvestmentFigure 14:Biggest Risk Is Contractor Profitability On Risi

31、ng InputsChange in Producer Prices for Steel Related InputsNumber of States Making Mid-Year Budget Cuts5045403530252015105Steelbars,conduits,wellcasingsSteelpilings,bars&tubesBridgesections,expansionjoints,structuralsteelCable,springwork,chainlinkfencingHighwayguardrails,scaffolds,gratingsSteel & Ir

32、oncastingsSteelpipes,bends,couplings0%5%10%15%20%25%-FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018Source: ARTBA.Aug18vs.Aug17Aug18 vs.Mar18Source: ARTBA.NA Truck: Risks GrowingThe New Orders component of the ISM Manufacturing Index tends to be the best leading indic

33、ator of future freight trends and truck demand. Specifically, the YoY change in New Orders has historically led the YoY change in the Cass Freight Index (our preferred broad-based indicator of freight trends) by six to nine months. The ISM New Orders index was 50.0 in June, down 20.6% YoY. The Cass

34、Freight Index was down 6.0% YoY in May, sixth consecutive YoY decline, while the overall freight indicator ATA Total Loads SA Index increased 0.8% YoY to 108.6 in May.Figure 15: ISM New Orders vs. CassShipmentsIndexFigure 16: ATA Total Loads IndexSA190%140%ISM New Orders YoY90%ISM New Orders YoY40%-

35、10%-60%ISM New Orders YoY vs. Cass Freight Shipments Index YoYHistorically, the YoY change in ISM New Ordershas led the YoY change in the Cass Freight Index by 6-9 months19911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007Historically, the YoY change in ISM New Ordershas led the YoY

36、change in the Cass Freight Index by 6-9 months199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820196%0%114.0Cass Freight Shipments Index YoY109.0Cass Freight Shipments Index YoY104.0ATA Total Loads Index (Seasonally Adjusted)2001 2002 20

37、03 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%-25.0%Source: ISM, Cass, J.P. Morgan.Source: ATA, J.P. Morgan.YoYChange(RHS) Total Loads Index SA(LHS)NA Class 8 orders (including June preliminary data) declined 66% in Q2

38、19 to 38,845 units. Meanwhile, retail sales increased 19% in Q219TD (through May) to 58,351 units, and the builds increased 29% in Q2TD to 62,471 units. Overall, we forecast Class 8 builds to increase 2% in 2019 to 330,000 units.Figure 17: Builds Increased 29% YoY In Q219TDFigure 18: We Forecast Bui

39、lds Up 2% In 2019NA Class 8 - Annual Builds (Units)60,00050,000400,000Freightliner residual value guaranteesEmission standard pre-buyJPMe 19: 330KACT 19: 342K350,000Freightliner residual value guaranteesEmission standard pre-buyJPMe 19: 330KACT 19: 342K40,00030,000300,000250,000200,000Class8Class8Or

40、dersvs.Buildsvs.Sales (Units)10,0001996199719961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201919961997199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019E2020ESource: ACT, J.P. Morgan.NetOrdersBuildsRetail Sale

41、sSource: ACT, J.P. Morgan.EU Truck Registrations Strong YTDBased on data from ACEA, European truck registrations were up 20.9% in May and up 8.4% YTD. Western European truck registrations were up 19.9% in May and up 9.9% YTD while Eastern European registrations were up 24.6% in May and up 2.7% YTD.

42、The Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, which typically leads freight, increased marginally to 47.8 in June (from 47.7 in May) but remains below 50, indicating a contraction. We expect truck demand to decline by 4% in 2019, driven primarily by our expectation for weakness in the Western European marke

43、t.Figure 19: Total European Truck Registrations Up 8% YTDTotal European Monthly Heavy Truck Registrations50,00040,00030,00020,00010,000150%125%100%75%50%25%0%-25%-50%Figure 20: Western European Truck Registrations Up 10% YTDWestern European Monthly Heavy Truck Registrations50,00040,00030,00020,00010

44、,000150%125%100%75%50%25%0%-25%-50%0-75%2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Source: ACEA, J.P. Morgan.0-75%2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Source: ACEA, J.P. Morgan.Figure 21: Eastern European Truck Registratio

45、ns Up 3% YTDCentral & Eastern European Monthly Heavy Truck Registrations8,250300%Figure 22: We Forecast Registrations Down 4% In 2019Total European Truck Demand (EU 27+EFTA3)Avg. 19industryforecasts:308K7,5006,7506,0005,2504,5003,7503,0002,2501,50075002004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201

46、3 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019250%200%150%100%0%-50%-100%0JPMe 19: 305KSource: ACEA, J.P. Morgan.199819991998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019EAutomotive Production Forecasts Revised Down AgainIHS lowered its 2019 global production estimate to 91.6

47、5 million units in June (down 2.4% from the December forecast); its June outlook for 2020 global production is92.42 million units, implying growth of 0.8% YoY. In North America, IHS lowered its 2019 production estimate to 16.58 million units in June (down 1.2% from the March forecast); its June outl

48、ook for 2020 production in North America is 16.37 million units, implying a 1.3% YoY decline. In Europe, IHS decreased its 2019 production estimate to 21.53 million units in June (down 0.5% from the March forecast); its June outlook for 2020 EU production is 21.65 million units, implying 0.5% YoY gr

49、owth. In China, IHS lowered its 2019 production estimate to 25.67 million units in June (down 4.9% from the March forecast); its June outlook for 2020 production in China is 26.35 million units, implying 2.6% YoY growth.Figure 23: IHS Forecasts Global Auto Production Down 6% In Q2Global Auto Product

50、ionGlobal Auto Production % Change (YoY)Global Auto Production % Change (YoY)Figure 24: IHS Forecasts NA Auto Production Down 3% In Q2North America Auto ProductionNorth America Auto Production % Change (YoY)North America Auto Production % Change (YoY)25,000Units In Millions24,000Units In Millions23,

51、00022,00021,0006%4% % Growth0%-2%-4%-6%4,5004,4004,300Units In Millions4,200Units In Millions4,1004,0003,9003,8003,7003,6002%0% % Growth-4%-6%-8%-10%20,000-8%3,500-12%Source: IHS estimates,J.P.Morgan.Source: IHS estimates, J.P. Morgan.Figure 25: IHS Forecasts EU Auto Production Down 7% In Q2Europe A

52、uto ProductionEurope Auto Production % Change (YoY)Europe Auto Production % Change (YoY)6,0005,000Units In Millions4,000Units In Millions3,0002,0001,0008%6%4% % Growth0%-2%-4%-6%Figure 26: IHS Forecasts China Auto Production Down 11% In Q2China Auto ProductionChina Auto Production % Change (YoY)Chin

53、a Auto Production % Change (YoY)8,0007,000Units In Millions6,000Units In Millions5,0004,0003,0002,0001,00015%10%5% % Growth-5%-10%-15%0-8%0-20%Source: IHS estimates,J.P.Morgan.Source: IHS estimates, J.P. Morgan.Challenging Agriculture FundamentalsCorn and soybean prices have rallied in recent weeks

54、on fears of lower US production in 2019/20 on the back of extremely challenging weather conditions across the Midwest. The risks to US yields now appear skewed more to the downside, a negative for US farmers more than offsetting higher crop prices (which remain anchored by comfortable ROW supply).Fi

55、gure 27: Corn Price Up 20% From May19 LowCorn Price Generic 1st FutureFigure 28: Soybean Price Up 11% From May19 Low$5.00(USD/bushel)$4.50$4.00$3.50$3.00$2.50$2.00$11.00Soybean Price Generic 1st Future (USD/bushel)$10.00$9.00$8.00$7.00$6.00Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.$11.00Soybean Price Generic 1

56、st Future (USD/bushel)$10.00$9.00$8.00$7.00$6.00Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.We continue to monitor US export inspections very closely given the potential for longer term demand destruction accentuated by the ongoing trade conflict with China. So far in the 2018/19 marketing year (beginning Septem

57、ber 1), US soybean export inspections are running 25% behind last year. Meanwhile, US corn export inspections are running 10% behind last years pace given renewed competition from SA (USDA projects a 53% increase in Argentinas corn production this season).70.0Cumulative US Corn Export Inspections (M

58、MT)60.050.02018/19 corn exports running 10% behind last years pace40.030.020.010.0-70.0Cumulative US Soybean Export Inspections (MMT)60.050.040.030.020.010.02018/19 soybean 70.0Cumulative US Corn Export Inspections (MMT)60.050.02018/19 corn exports running 10% behind last years pace40.030.020.010.0-

59、70.0Cumulative US Soybean Export Inspections (MMT)60.050.040.030.020.010.02018/19 soybean running 25% behind last years pace- 2014/15Source: USDA, J.P. Morgan. 2016/172017/182018/19 2014/152015/16 2016/17Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.2018/19North America: Based on AEMs retail sales data through May

60、, NA 100HP+ tractors were up 1% YoY in Q2 TD while combines were down 11%. The OEMs share a cautious outlook for the region in FY19: DE, CNHI, and AGCO each expect NA industry volumes flat to up 5% YoY.Figure 31: NA 100HP+ Tractor Retail Sales Up 1% YoY In Q2 TDNorth AmericaFigure 32: NA Combine Ret