專業(yè)英語物流與供應(yīng)鏈管理 2

Chapter4

Strategiclead-timemanagementThischapter：Exploresthe‘costoftime’andthedriversoftime-basedcompetition;shorteningproductlifecycles,customers’desireforreducedinventoriesandthedangersofbeingforecastdependentinanincreasinglyvolatilemarketplace.探討時間成本和時間競爭的驅(qū)動力；正在不斷縮短的產(chǎn)品生命周期，客戶減少庫存的要求，在動蕩的市場環(huán)境下過分依賴預(yù)測的種種風(fēng)險。Examinestheconceptofleadtime,theorder-to-deliverycycle,itscomponentsandtheneedtoconsiderthewidercontextoftheorder–to-cashcycle.分析前置時間、訂單周期的概念及其構(gòu)成要素，從更大范圍來考察訂貨變現(xiàn)周期。Looksathowthereductionofleadtimescanimpactonthegoalsoflogisticspipelinemanagement.研究縮短前置時間是如何影響物流渠道管理目標的。Outlinessomeofthewaysinwhichinadequatesystemsdesigncanlengthenleadtimesandengineercostratherthanvalueintothelogisticsprocess.概括了一些不恰當?shù)南到y(tǒng)設(shè)計方法，它們延長了前置時間，并增加了設(shè)計成本，卻對物流過程的增值貢獻不大。introducestheconceptofthelead-timegap,offeringanumberofsuggestionsforleadtime.介紹前置時間差的概念，提出一些縮短前置時間的建議。Compendium1.Time-basedcompetition2.Theconceptofleadtime3.Logisticspipelinemanagement4.Logisticsvalueengineering5.Thelead-timegap6.Summary1.Time-basedcompetition時間競爭

Timeismoney.AsfarascostisConcernedthereisAdirectrelationshipBetweenthelengthOfthelogisticspipelineAndtheinventorythatIslockedupinit.首先，就成本而言，物流渠道的長度與渠道中的存貨數(shù)量有直接的關(guān)系。Secondly,longleadtimesmeanaslowerresponsetocustomerrequirements.其次，過長的前置時間意味著對客戶需求反應(yīng)的延遲。Customersinallmarkets,industrialorconsumer,areincreasinglytime-sensitive.Question1

Whatarethepressuresleadingtothegrowthoftime-sensitivemarkets?Customers’driveforforreducedinventoriesVolatilemarketmakingrelianceonforecastsDangerousShorteninglifeCyclesTime-sensitivemarket不斷縮短的產(chǎn)品生命周期客戶降低庫存的需求由于市場多變，過于依賴預(yù)測很危險Theconceptoftheproductlifecycle:Formanyproducts,thereisarecognizablepatternofsalesfromlaunchthroughtofinaldecline.(1)Shorteninglifecycles許多產(chǎn)品從投投入市場到最最后淡出市場場，其銷量遵遵循一個公認認的模式。TheproductlifecycleSales(￡)introductiongrowthmaturitysaturationdeclinetime導(dǎo)入期成長期成熟期飽和期衰退期產(chǎn)品生命周期期2.Customers’driveforreducedinventoryoneofthemostpronouncedphenomenaofrecentyearshasbeenthealmostuniversalmovebycompaniestoreducetheirinventories.這些年，一個個最明顯的現(xiàn)現(xiàn)象就是全球球所有的企業(yè)業(yè)都在著手降降低它們的庫庫存?？蛻艚档蛶齑娲娴男枨驫uestion1Whatisthedifferencebetweentraditionalandmodernwaystoservicecustomerswhorequirejust-in-timedeliveries?Manycompaniesstillthinkthattheonlywaytoservicecustomerswhorequirejust-in-timedeliveriesisforthem,thesupplier,tocarrytheinventoryinsteadofthecustomer.Insteadwhatisneededisforthesuppliertosubstituteresponsivenessforinventorywheneverpossible.許多公司仍然然認為，給客客戶提供及時時配送服務(wù)的的唯一方法，，就是只能由由供應(yīng)商代替替客戶持有庫庫存。其實作為供應(yīng)應(yīng)商真正需要要的是：在必必要的時候用用快速反應(yīng)來來代替大量的的庫存。Question2Howtoachieveresponsiveness?Why?Responsivenessessentiallyisachievedthroughtimecompressioninthesupplychain.TimecompressionServiceenhancementCostreduction壓縮時間完善服務(wù)縮減成本Breakingfreeoftheclassicservice/costtrade-off打破傳統(tǒng)的服服務(wù)、成本權(quán)權(quán)衡關(guān)系3.VolatilemarketmakingrelianceonforecastsdangerousQuestionWhat’sthecontinuingproblemformostorganizationsaccordingtotext?What’stherootcauseoftheseproblems?由于市場多變變，過于依賴賴預(yù)測很危險險Acontinuingproblemformostorganizationsistheinaccuracyofforecast.Whilstmanyforecastingerrorsaretheresultofinappropriateforecastingmethodologytherootcauseoftheseproblemsisthatforecasterrorincreasesasledtimeincreases.time+-ForecasterrorForecasterrorandplanninghorizons預(yù)測誤差和計計劃水平2.TheconceptofleadtimeQuestionWhat’sthemeaningofleadtimefromthecustomer’sviewpointandfromthesupplier’sperspectiverespectively?Fromthecustomers’viewpointTheelapsedtimefromordertodelivery.Fromthesuppliers’viewpointThetimeittakestoconvertanorderIntocash.從發(fā)出訂單到到收到貨物的的這段時間。。從接受訂單到到收回現(xiàn)金的的時間(1)Theorder-to-deliverycycleCustomerPlacesorderOrderprocessingOrderentryOrderassemblyTransportOrderreceivedThecomponentsofordercycletime客戶訂單提交訂單錄入訂單處理訂單組貨運輸訂貨到達Totalordercyclewithvariability1.Ordercommunication2.Orderentryandprocessing3.Orderpickingorproduction5.Customerreceiving4.transportationtotal3Timerange1to5daysTimerange1to3days2Timerange1to9days53Timerange1to5days2Timerange1to3days5days25days15運輸訂單錄入及處處理按單揀選或生生產(chǎn)客戶接受訂貨前溝通訂單履行周期期的變動程度度Inthosesituationswhereordersarenotmetfromstockbutmayhavetobemanufactured,assembledorsourcedfromexternalvendors,thenclearlyleadtimeswillbeevenfurtherextendedwiththepossibilityofstillgreatervariationsintotalorder-to-deliverytime.Leadtimecomponent.OrderingreceptionleadtinePlanningleadtimeProcessingleadtimeMaterialsplanningandpurchaseleadtimesupplierleadtinetransportleadtineReceptionandinspectionleadtineAssemblyreleaseandorderpickingWaitingtimesProcessingtimesTransporttimetonextstage(e.g.toinventoryassembly)Dispatchpreparationtime(documents,packages)TransporttimetocustomerCommercialAndplanningLeadtimeMaterialsLeadtimesAssemblyLeadtimesDistributionLeadtimesInstallationLeadtimes商業(yè)和計劃前前置時間原材料前置時時間匯總前置時間間配送前置時間間安裝前置時間間前置時間構(gòu)成成要素(2)Thecash-to-cashcycleQuestionWhat’sthebasicconcernofanyorganization?whatisruleofthumb?CumulativeLeadtime[procurementTopayment]RawmaterialstockSubassemblyproductionIntermediatestockProductassemblyFinishedstockatCentralwarehouseIn-transitRegionaldistributionCentralstockCustomerordercycle累積的前置時時間（從采購到付付款）Strategiclead-timemanagementThelongerthepipelinefromsourceofmaterialtothefinaluserthelessresponsivetochangesindemandthesystemwillbe.從原材料到最最終使用者的的渠道越長，，系統(tǒng)就越缺缺乏對需求變變動的應(yīng)變能能力Anapproximateruleofthumbsuggeststhattheamountofsafetystockinapipelinevarieswiththesquarefootofthepipelinelength.一個類似于““大拇指”的的規(guī)則指出，，安全庫存數(shù)數(shù)量的多少取取決于渠道長長度的平方根根。3.logisticspipelinemanagementQuestion1Howtocontrollogisticsleadtimessuccessfully?Thekeytothesuccessfulcontrolofthelogisticsleadtimeispipelinemanagement.成功控制物流流前置時間的的關(guān)鍵是實施施物流渠道管管理。Question2Whatarethegoalsofthepipelinemanagement?ThegoalsofthepipelinemanagementgoalsLowercostsHigherqualityMoreflexibilityFasterresponsetime更低的成本更高的質(zhì)量高強的靈活性性更快的反應(yīng)速速度HowtoachievethesegoalsManagethesupplychainasanentityandseekingtoreducethepipelinelengthand/orcosttospeeduptheflowthroughthatpipeline.Tofindwaysinwhichtheratioofvalue-addedtocost-addedtimeinthepipelinecanbeimproved.將供應(yīng)鏈作為為一個整體進進行管理，并并縮短整個渠渠道的長度，，同時（或者者）加速物品品在渠道中的的流動。找到可以提高高增值時間與與成本增加時時間比率的方方法。Value-addingtime(time,placeandformutility)Cost-addingtime(promotion,storageandtransportcostandthetimecostofmoney)RawmaterialstockproductionFinishedstockIn-transitRegionalstockCustomerdeliveryCost-addedversusvalue-addedtime引起價值增加加和成本增加加的活動（時間、地點點和形態(tài)效用用）增值時間原材料庫存生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)成品庫存運輸區(qū)域庫存客戶配送Cost-addedversusvalue-addedtime成本增加時間間（促銷、倉倉儲和運輸成成本及時間成成本）Value-addingtimeRawmaterialstockproductionFinishedstockIn-transitRegionalstockCustomerdeliveryRawmaterialstockproductionFinishedstockIn-transitRegionalstockCustomerdeliveryCost-addingtimeReducingnon-value-addingtimeimprovesserviceandreducescost通過減減少非非增值值時間間來提提高服服務(wù)水水平并并降低低成本本3.LogisticsvalueengineeringManybusinesshaveinvestedheavilyinautomationinthefactorywiththeaimofreducingthroughputtimes.Howeveritisparadoxicalthatmanyofthosesamebusinessthathavespentmillionsofpoundsonautomationtospeedupthetimeittakestomanufactureaproductarethencontenttoletitsitinadistributioncentreorwarehouseforweekswaitingtobesold.Therequirementistolookacrossthedifferentstagesinthesupplychaintoseehowtimeasawholecanbereducedthroughreengineeringthewaythechainisstructured.Example1:Planningcycle/manufacturingleadtimeExample2:ForecastingandorderingofsuppliersExample3:WarehousepickinganddistributionOnepointInsomanycasesitispossibletofindconsiderableOpportunityfortotallead-timereduction,oftenthroughSomeverysimplechangesinprocedure.4.Thelead-timegapQuestion1Accordingtothetext,mostorganizationsfaceafundamentalproblem,whatisit?Thetimeittakestoprocure,makeanddeliverthefinishedproducttoacustomerislongerthanthetimethecustomerispreparedtowaitforit.Thisisthebasisofthelead-timegap.Thelead-timegapprocurementCustomer’’sordercycledeliverymanufacturingLogisticsleadtimeThelead-timegapOrderfulfillment采購購生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)配送送物流流前前置置時時間間客戶戶訂訂貨貨周周期期前置置時時間間差差訂單單履履行行Question2What’’sthecustomer’’sordercycle?Thelengthoftimethatthecustomerispreparetowait,fromwhentheorderisplacedthroughtowhenthegoodsarereceived.Thecompetitiveconditionsofthemarketaswellasthenatureoftheproductwillinfluencethecustomer’’swillingnesstowait.Thefactorsthatinfluencethecustomer’’swillingnesstowait:Howtoclosethelead-timegap?shorteninglogisticsleadtimeMovethecustomer’’sordercyclecloserbygainingearlierwarningofrequirementsthroughimprovedvisibilityofdemand.縮短短物物流流前前置置時時間間通過過提提高高需需求求的的可可見見性性，，盡盡量量把把客客戶戶訂訂貨貨周周期期調(diào)調(diào)整整到到與與早早期期得得到到的的需需求求信信息息更更接接近近。。Question3Allthelogisticsprocessescanbeviewedasanetworkofinter-linkedactivitiesthatcanbeoptimizedasawholebyfocusingontotalthroughputtime.Anyattempttomanagebyoptimizingindividualelementsoractivitiesintheprocesswillleadtoaless-than-optimalresultoverall.所有的物物流過程程都能被被看做是是由由各種種具有內(nèi)內(nèi)在聯(lián)系系的活動動所形成成的一個個網(wǎng)絡(luò)，，要想優(yōu)優(yōu)化這個個網(wǎng)絡(luò)，，必須要要通過調(diào)調(diào)整總體體運營時時間才能能得以實實現(xiàn)。而而單純通通過優(yōu)化化個別要要素或過過程中個個別活動動只能得得到一個個次優(yōu)化化的結(jié)果果。（1）reducinglogisticslead-timeQuestion4What’sOPT?what’sitsessence?AsignificantcontributiontothewayweviewlogisticsprocesseshasbeenmadebyGoldrattwhohasdevelopedthetheoryofconstraints(約束理理論)whichismoreusuallyknownasOptimizedProductionTechnology（（生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)技術(shù)優(yōu)優(yōu)化理論論）(OPT).TheessenceofOPTisthatallactivitiesinalogisticschaincanbecategorizedaseither‘bottlenecks'or‘‘non-bottlenecks’.OPT———把一一個物流鏈中中的所有有活動劃分分為瓶頸頸類或非瓶瓶頸類。。Question5Whatisabottleneck?Abottleneckistheslowestactivityinachainandwhilstitmayoftenbeamachine,itcouldalsobeapartoftheinformationflowsuchasorderprocessing.瓶頸是指指整個鏈鏈中最慢慢的活動動，它可可以是一一臺機器器，也可可以是像像訂單處處理一樣樣的信息息流的一一部分。。Furtheropportunitiesforpipelinetimereductioncannormallybefoundattheinterfacewithsuppliers’logisticssystem.(2)ImprovingvisibilityofdemandTheideathatitcouldbepossibleto‘extend’’thecustomer’sordercyclemayatfirstsightseemimplausible.No,whatismeantbyextendingthecustomer’sordercycleisthatweshouldseektoobtainsignificantlyearlierwarningsofthecustomer’srequirement.Whatwefrequentlyfindisthatfirstofallthedemandpenetrationpointistoofardownthepipelineandthatsecondly,realdemandishiddenfromviewandallwetendtoseeareorders.Boththesepointsneedfurtherexplanation;firstlytheconceptofthedemandpenetrationpoint.Question1What’sthedemandpenetrationpoint?Thedefinitionofthedemandpenetrationpointisthatitoccursatthatpointinthelogisticschainwhererealdemandmeetstheplan.Upstreamfromthispointeverythingisdrivenbyaforecastand/oraplan.Downstreamwecanrespondtocustomerdemand.在物流鏈鏈中需求求與計劃劃達成一一致的點點。預(yù)測測或計劃劃驅(qū)動著著需求滲滲透點上上游的活活動，下下游所做做的就是是對客戶戶需求做做出反應(yīng)應(yīng)。Question2What’sthekeyconcernoflogisticsmanagement?Howtoachieveit?Akeyconcernoflogisticsmanagementshouldbetoseektoidentifywaysinwhichthedemandpenetrationpointcanbepushedasfaraspossibleupstream.Thismightbeachievedbytheuseofinformationsothatmanufacturingandpurchasinggettohearofwhatishappeninginthemarketplacefasterthantheycurrentlydo.Theotherroutetoachievinganupstreamshiftoftheorderpenetrationpointisbypostponingthefinalcommitmentoftheproducttoitsfinalform.Followingfigureillustratesarangeofpossibledemandpenetrationpointsindifferentindustrialandmarketcontexts..DrivenByforecastDrivenBydemandplantDistributioncentralwarehousedepots需求滲透透點和戰(zhàn)戰(zhàn)略庫存存DemandpenetrationpointandstrategicinventoryInasensetheinformationwereceive,ifweonlyhavetheordertorelyon,islikethetipofaniceberg.theordercycletime(i.e.therequiredresponsetimefromordertodelivery)mayonlybethevisibletip.在某種意意義上，，如果我我們僅僅僅依賴手手頭的訂訂單，則則所獲得得的信息息猶如冰冰山一角角。訂貨貨周期時時間也可可能僅僅僅是信息息冰山上上可視的的一角。。Theareabelowthesurfaceoftheicebergrepresentstheongoingconsumption,demandorusageoftheproductwhichishiddenfromtheviewofthesupplier.Itisonlywhenanorderisissuedthatdemandbecomestransparent.海平面以下下的部分代代表著未來來的消費、、需求或者者使用產(chǎn)品品的信息，，而這些統(tǒng)統(tǒng)統(tǒng)是在供供應(yīng)商的視視野之外的的。只有當當訂單發(fā)出出之時，需需求才變得得透明。TheinformationicebergOrder