dec-investment2013年10月13日余潤共83圖片每頁打四個拍攝

SS14– ysisandAssigned49．OverviewofEquitySecuritiesIntroductiontoIndustry 51．EquityValuation:ConceptsandBasic

AssignedReading49．OverviewofEquity LOS49.a:DescribecharacteristicsoftypesofequityEquitysecuritiesareanimportantassetbecauseoftheiruniquereturnandriskcharacteristicsinglobalfinancialEquitieshaveshownhigherreturnsthanbondsandbutalsohigher

Commonshareholdershavearesidualclaimonfirmassetsand ernthecorporationthroughvotingrights.Statutoryvotingvs.cumulativevotingCallablecommonsharesallowthefirmtherightrepurchasethesharesataprespecified Putablecommonsharesgivetheshareholdertherighttosellthesharesbacktothefirmatapre-specifiedprice. 49.49.49.Preferredstocktypicallydoesnotmature,doesnothavevotingrights,andhasdividendsthatarefixedinamountbutarenotacontractualobligationofthefirm.Cumulativepreferredsharesrequireanydividendsthatweremissedinthepast(dividendsinarrears)tobepaidbeforecommonshareholdersreceiveanydividends.Non-cumulativepreferencesharesParticipatingpreferredsharesreceiveextradividendsiffirmprofitsexceedaprespecifiedlevelandavaluegreaterthantheparvalueifthefirmisliquidated.Non-participatingpreferenceshares5

Convertiblepreferredstockcanbeconvertedtocommonstockatapre-specifiedconversionratio.當公 6 LOS49.b:Describedifferencesinvotingrightsandotherownershipcharacteristicsamongdifferentequityclasses.公司可 不同等級的普通股高等級的普通股可以具 的投票權，或在公司算時優(yōu)先行使索

LOS49.c:DistinguishbetweenpublicandprivateequityComparedtopublicequity,privateequityhasfollowing1.Less2.Sharepriceisnegotiated3.Morelimitedfirmfinancialdisclosure4.Lowerreporting5.Potentiallyweaker 6.Greaterabilitytofocusonlong-termprospectsbecausethereisnopublicpressureforshort-termresults. ?7.Potentiallygreaterreturn PublicandprivateequityVenturestart-zip,earlystage,ormezzanineLeveragedbuyoutor 私募股權投資在國內創(chuàng)業(yè)板的表

LOS49.d:Describemethodsforinvestinginnon-domesticequityDirectSomeobstaclestodirectforeigninvestmentareTheinvestmentandreturnaredenominatedinaforeignTheforeignstockexchangemaybeThereportingrequirementsofforeignstockexchangesmaybelessstrict,impeding Investorsmustbefamiliarwiththeregulationsproceduresofeachmarketinwhichthey Investinnon-domesticequityDepositoryreceiptssponsored unsponsoredGlobaldepositoryreceipts(GDRs):issuedoutsideU.S.andtheissuer'shomeU.S.dollarsandtradeintheUnited

Investinnon-domesticequity Investinnon-domesticequityGlobalregisteredshares(GRS)aretradedincurrenciesonstockexchangesaroundtheAbasketoflisteddepositoryreceipts(BLDR)isanexchange-tradedfund(ETF)thatisacollectionofDRs.ETFsharestradeinmarketsjustlikecommonstocks.

LOS49.e:Comparetheriskandreturncharacteristicsoftypesofequitysecurities.Thereturnsonequityinvestmentsconsistofpricechanges,dividendpayments,and,inthecaseofequitiesdenominatedinaforeigncurrency,gainsorlossesfromchangesinexchangerates. Theriskofequitysecuritiesismostcommonlymeasuredasthestandarddeviationofreturns. Preferredstockislessriskythancommonstockbecausepreferredstockpaysaknown,fixeddividendtoinvestors;preferredstockholdersmustreceivedividendsbeforecommonstockdividendscanbepaid;andpreferredstockholdershaveaclaimequaltoparvalueifthefirmisliquidated.PutablesharesaretheleastriskyandcallablesharesaretheCumulativepreferredsharesarelessriskythannon-cumulativepreferredshares,asanydividendsmissedmustbepaidbeforeacommonstockdividendcanbepaid.

LOS49.f:Ex intheroleofequitysecuritiesinthefinancingofa'sassets.Equitysecuritiesprovidefundstothefirmtobuyproductiveassets,tobuyothercompanies,ortooffertoemployeesascompensation.Equitysecuritiesprovideliquiditythatmaybeimportantwhenthefirmmustraiseadditionalfunds.。 LOS49.g:Distinguishbetweenthemarketvalueandbookvalueofequitysecurities.Thebookvalueofequityisthedifferencebetweenthefinancialstatementvalueofthefirm'sassetsandliabilities.Positiveretainedearningsincreasethebookvalueofequity.Bookvaluesreflectthefirm'spastoperatingandfinancingchoices.ThemarketvalueofequityisthesharepricetimesnumberofsharesMarketvaluereflectsinvestors'expectationsaboutthetiming,amount,andriskofthefirm'sfuturecashflows

LOS49.h:Comparea 'scostofequity,itsaccountingreturnonequity,andinvestors'requiredratesofreturn.凈資產收益率等于歸屬于普通股東的凈利潤除以期內股權的平均帳面價值 ROECostofEquity&RequiredHigherROEisgenerallyviewedasapositiveforafirm,butthereasonforanincreaseshouldbeexamined.Thefirm'scostofequityistheexpectedequilibriumtotalreturn(includingdividends)onitssharesinthemarket.Afirm’costofequitycanbeinterpretedastheminimumrateofreturnrequiredbyinvestor(intheaggregate)tocompensatethemfortheriskofthefirm’sequityshares.

ROECostofequity&RequiredInvestors'requiredratesofreturnarereflectedinmarketpricesofthefirm‘s ROECostofequity&Required

AssignedReading50．IntroductiontoIndustry LOS50.a:Ex intheusesofindustry ysisandtherelationof ysisto ysisisnecessaryforunderstanding'sbusinessenvironmentbeforeengaginginysisofthe Theindustryenvironmentcanprovideinformationaboutthefirm'spotentialgrowth,competition,risks,appropriatedebtlevels,andcreditrisk.Industryvaluationcanbeusedinanactivemanagementstrategytodeterminewhichindustriestooverweightorunderweightinaportfolio.Industryrepresentationisoftenasignificantcomponentinaperformanceattributionysisofaportfolio'sretur2n5.

LOS50.b:Comparemethodsbywhichcompaniescanbegrouped,currentindustryclassificationsystems,andclassifya givenadescriptionofitsactivitiesandtheclassificationsystem.按以下特質對行業(yè)進PrincipalbusinessBusinesscyclesensitivity:cyclicalandnon-cyclicalStatisticalmethods的四個缺歷史上業(yè)績表現關聯度高的公司未必在未來也保持高的關采用不同時間段或不同地域的歷史數據可能影響分類的結分類結果有時難以解釋統計方法本身具有缺陷性，偶然性會影響 IndustryclassificationIndustryclassificationsystemsfromcommercialprovidersincludetheGlobalIndustryClassificationStandard(Standard&Poor'sandMSCIBarra),RussellGlobalSectors,andtheIndustryClassification ark(DowJonesandIndustryclassificationsystemsdevelopedby agenciesincludetheInternationalStandardIndustrialClassification(ISIC),theNorthAmericanIndustryClassificationSystem(NAICS),andsystemsdesignedtheEuropeanUnionandAustraliaandNew

LOS50.c:Exinthefactorsthataffectthesensitivityoftothebusinesscycleandtheusesandlimitationofindustryanddescriptorssuchas“growth”,“defensive”,“cyclical”Cyclicalfirmhasearningsthatarehighlydependentonthebusinesscycle.Noncyclicalfirmhasearningsthatarelessdependentof1.defensive(demandfortheproducttendsnottofluctuatewiththebusiness2.growth(demandissostrongthatitislargelyunaffectedbythebusinesscycle).Limitationsofdescriptorssuchasgrowth,defensive,andincludethefactscyclicalindustriesoftenincludegrowthevennon-cyclicalindustriescanbeaffectedbysevererecessions;3.defensiveindustriesarenotalwayssafeinvestments;businesscycletimingdiffersacrosscountriesandregions;and classificationoffirmsissomewhat LOS50.d:Ex intherelationof"peergroup,"asusedinequityvaluation,toa 'sindustryclassification. Peergroupshouldconsistofcompanieswithsimilarbusinessactivities,demanddrivers,coststructuredrivers,andavailabilityofcapital.通過行

LOS50.e:Describetheelementsthatneedtobecoveredinathoroughindustry Athorough ysisEvaluatetherelationshipsbetweenmacroeconomicvariablesandindustrytrends.EstimateindustryvariablesusingdifferentandCheckestimatesagainstthosefrom ComparethevaluationfordifferentComparethevaluationforindustriesacrosstimedetermineriskandrotation Elementsinathorough yzeindustryprospectsbasedonstrategicClassifyindustriesbytheirlife-cyclePositiontheindustryontheexperienceConsiderdemographic, social,andtechnologicalExamine sthatdetermineindustry

LOS50.f:Describetheprinciplesof ysisofanPorter'sfive sthatdetermineindustrycompetition1.Rivalryamongexisting2.Threatofnew3.Threatofsubstitute4.Bargainingpowerof5.Bargainingpower LOS50.g:Ex intheeffectsofbarrierstoentry,industryconcentration,industrycapacity,andmarketsharestabilityonpricingpowerandreturnoncapital.Highbarrierstoentrypreventnewcompetitorsfromtakingawaymarketshare,buttheydonotguaranteepricingpower,especiallyiftheproductsareundifferentiated.Capacityisfixedintheshortrunandvariableinthelongrun.UndercapacitytypicallyresultsinpricingMarketshare

IndustryhighindustryconcentrationmaynotguaranteeWhilemarketfragmentationusuallyresultsinstrongcompetition,highindustryconcentrationmaynotguaranteepricingpower.Ifindustryproductsareundifferentiated,willswitchtothecheapestOvercapacitymayresultinprice LOS50.h:Describeproductandindustrylifecyclemodels,classifyindustryastolifecyclephase(e.g.,embryonic,growth,shakeout,maturity,anddecline)basedonadescriptionofit,anddescribethelimitationsofthelife-cycleconceptinforecastingindustryperformance.Phasesoftheindustrylife-cyclemodelaretheembryonic,growth,shakeout,maturity,anddeclinestages.Embryonicstage:Slowgrowth;highprices;largeinvestmentrequired;highriskoffailure.Growthstage:Rapidgrowth;littlecompetition;fallingprices;increasingprofitability.Shakeoutstage:Slowinggrowth;intensecompetition;industryovercapacity;decliningprofitability;costcutting;increasedfailures.Maturestage:Slowgrowth;consolidation;highbarrierstoentry;stablepricing;superiorfirmsgainmarketshare.Declinestage:Negativegrowth;decliningprices;

Industrylifecycle IndustrylifecycleAlimitationoflife-cycle ysisisthatlife-cyclestagesmaynotbeaslongorshortasanticipatedormightbeskippedaltogetherduetotechnological ernmentregulation,societalchange,orFirmsinthesamelifecyclestagewillexperiencedissimilargrowthandprofitsduetotheircompetitive

LOS50.j:Describedemographic, ernmental,socialandtechnologicalinfluencesonindustrygrowth,profitabilityandrisk.Demographicinfluencesonindustriesincludethesizeagedistributionoftheernmentfactorsincludetaxrates,regulations,empowermentofself-regulatoryorganizations,ernmentpurchasesofgoodsandSocialinfluencesrelatetohowpeoplein ctandconducttheirlives.Technologycandramaticallychangeanindustrytheintroductionofneworimproved LOS50.i:Comparecharacteristicsofrepresentativeindustriesfromthevariouseconomicsectors.majorbarrierstoindustryinfluenceofindustrycapacityonindustryLifedemographicernmentsocialtechnologicalwhethertheindustryisgrowth,defensive,or

LOS50.k:Describetheelementsthatshouldbecoveredina ysisshouldincludetheFirmoverview,includinginformationonoperations,ernance,andstrengthsandweaknesses.IndustryProductProductPricingFinancialratios,withcomparisonstootherfirmsandovertime.Projectedfinancialstatementsandfirm Elementsina Acostleadershipfirmseekstohavethelowestcostsofproductioninitsindustry,offerthelowestprices,andgenerateenoughvolumetomakeasuperiorreturn.Adifferentiatingfirm'sproductsandservicesshoulddistinctiveintermsoftype,quality,or

AssignedReadingEquityvaluation:conceptsandbasic LOS5l.a:Evaluatewhetherasecurity,givenitscurrentmarketpriceandavalueestimate,isovervalued,fairlyvalued,orundervaluedbythemarket.MarketpricevsintrinsicSeveralthingsto 23

LOS51.b:DescribemajorcategoriesofequityvaluationDiscountedcashflowPresentvalueofdividends---PresentvalueofoperatingcashPresentvalue cashflowtoMultiplierFirsttype:theratioofstockPrice/earningratio---Price/cashflowratio---Price/bookvalueratio---Price/salesratio---Secondtype:basedontheratioofenterprisevaluetoeitherEBITDAorAssetbased LOS51.c:Ex intherationaleforusingpresent-valueofcashHowmodelstovalueequityanddescribethedividenddiscountandAstock’svalueisthePVofthefutureexpectedcashflow.Dividenddiscountmodel-DDM:

Youholdthestockforoneyear,receiveD1andsellatP1One-yearholdingperiodDDM:P (1ke (1keP D D ... Dn(1ke (1ke) (1ke)ke=therequiredrateof

(1ke)

ValuationIdentifyallexpectedfuturecashEstimatetheequitydiscountrate:k=R+

-R KeyEstimateofthegrowthrateofthecashflow—Estimateofthediscountrate---Ifyouarebetteratestimatingtheseinputs,youwillbeasuperior Otherwise,justaGIGO:garbagein,garbageout!!!

Discounttheexpecteddividendandsellingpriceatrequired Astockpaida$1dividendlastyear.Youthinknextyear’sdividendwillbe5%higher,andthestockwillsellfor$13.45atyearend.Therisk-rateofinterestis6%,themarketreturnis12%,andthestock’sbetaisD1=D0(1+g)=$1(1+0.05)= k=R+β(R-R)= P

DDM—MultipleP D (1ke (1ke) (1ke)Usingthestockintheprecedingexample,wehadacurrentdividend$1,anexpectedgrowthrateof5%,andtheCAPM-determinedrequiredrateofreturnof13.2%,ifthestockwillsellfor$14.12intwoyears.D=D(1+g)=$1(1+0.05)=(1ke (1ke P=1.05/1.132+13.45/1.132=

D2=D0(1+g)2=$1(1+0.05)2=$1.1025P=1.05/1.132+1.1025/1,1322+14.12/1.1322=$12.81 FCFEFCFE=net e+depreciation-increaseinworkingcapital-fixedcapitalinvestment(FCInv)-debtprincipalrepayments+newdebtissuesFCFE=cashflowfromoperations-FCInv+

EstimatingtheRequiredReturnfor LOS51.d:Calculatetheintrinsicvalueofanon-callable,non-convertiblepreferredstock.

LOS51.e:CalculateandinterprettheintrinsicvalueofanequitysecuritybasedontheGordon(constant)growthdividenddiscountmodeloratwo-stagedividenddiscountmodel,asappropriate.TheinfiniteperiodDDMmodelassumesthatthegrowthrate(g)individendsisconstantgc.Theequationusingthisassumptionis:P 0 c 0 c 0 c 0 ...eeeeD(1g D(1gP 0 c 0 c 0 c 0 ...eeeeExample:Valuethepreferredstockof thatpaysa$5

(1k

(1k)

(1k)

(1k)dividend.Thefirm’sbondsarecurrentlyyielding8.5%andpreferredsharesarepricedtoyield50basispointsbelowthefirm’sbondyield.Step1:Determinethediscountrate.8.5%-0.5%=Step2:Valuethepreferredstock.D/kP=$5/0.08=

ThisequationsimplifiesPD0(1gc) keg kegThismodelisalsocalledconstantgrowthDDM,ortheGordonRearrangingtheterms

kD1 00 GordonGrowthAstockpaida$2dividendlastyear.Ifdividendsareexpecttogrowat5%forever.Therisk-rateofinterestis6%,themarketreturnis11%,andthestock’sbetais1.2.D1=D0(1+g)=$2(1+0.05)=ke=Rf+β(Rm-Rf)=0.06+1.2(0.11-0.06)=12%P=D1/(ke-gc)=2.1/(0.12-0.05)=$30

DDM—InfiniteperiodGordonGrowthP kegThecriticalrelationshipbetweenkandAsthedifferencebetweenkandgwiden,thevalueofthestockAsthedifferencenarrows,thevalueofthestockSmallchangesinthedifferencebetweenkandgcauselargechangeinthestock’svalue.TheassumptionoftheinfiniteperiodThestockpaysdividend,andtheygrowataconstantTheconstantgrowthrateg,isneverexpectedtoKmustbegreaterthang.ifnot,themathwillnotIfanyoneoftheseassumptionisnotmet,themodelbreaks Estimatethedividendgrowthrate-g=(Retentionrate,=(1-dividendpayoutROE=netprofitmargin*assetturnover*financialWhatisthefirm'sgrowthrategiventhatthefirmearns10%onequityof$100andpaysout40%ofearningsindividends?

Thefirmwillhavethreeyearsofextraordinarygrowthduringwhichnodividendwillbepaid.Beginninginyear4,earningswillstabilizeandgrowatasustainable5%,andthefirmwillpayout50%ofitsearningindividends.GivenE4=1.64andke=10%,calculatethevalueoftheD4=(dividendpayoutg=(1-dividendpayoutratio)(ROE)=(1-0.4)(0.1)=

P

3kegc 0.13IFnetprofitmarginincreases,thepriceofthestockwill

P 16.412.32e(1k (1e DDM—experiencetemporarysupernormalTwo-stagedividenddiscountFirststage:thefirm’sgrowthrateisg*fromyear1toyearnSecondstage:thefirm’sgrowthrateisgcfromyearn+1forever.P ...

DDM—experiencetemporarysupernormalConsiderastockwithdividendsthatareexpectedtogrowat20%peryearforfouryears,afterwhichtheyareexpecttoresumetheirnormalgrowthrateof5%peryearindefiniy.Thelastdividendpaidwas$1,andke=(1k (1k) (1k) (1k) Dn=lastdividendofthefirststage(supernormalgrowth

Firsttofindthevariablesyouneed:g*=20%,gc=5%,D0=1,Dn=4,ke=10%.D1=D0(1+g*)=1(1+0.2)=1.2,D2=D0(1+g*)2=1(1+0.2)2=1.44,Dn+1=thefirstdividendthatwillgrowatgc,

D3 D44P D4(1gc)2.08(10.05)4nP Dnn

keg

keg

0.1ke

D D D PP (1k (1k) (1k) (1k) (1k) 1 (10 (101) (101) (101) (101) 34 LOS51.f:IdentifycompaniesforwhichtheconstantgrowthormultistagedividenddiscountmodelisTheconstantgrowthmodelismostappropriateforfirmsthatpaydividendsthatgrowataconstantrate,suchasstableandmaturefirmsornoncyclicalfirmssuchasutilitiesandfoodproducersinmatureAtwo-stageDDMwouldbemostappropriateforafirmwithhighcurrentgrowththatwilldroptoastablerateinthefuture,anolderfirmthatisexperiencingatemporaryhighgrowthphase,oranolderfirmwithamarketsharethatisdecreasingbutexpectedtostabilize.Athree-stagemodelwouldbeappropriateforayoungfirmstillinahighgrowthphase.

LOS51.g:Ex intherationaleforusingpricemultiplestovalueequityanddistinguishbetweenmultiplesbasedoncomparablesversusmultiplesbasedonfundamentals.優(yōu)點：Pricemultiplesarewidelyusedbyystsareeasilycalculatedandreadilyavailableandcanbeusedintimeseriesandcross-sectionalcomparisons.缺點：Acritiqueofpricemultiplesisthattheyreflectonlythepastbecausehistoricaltrailingdataareoftenusedinthedenominator.pricemultiplesbasedonpricemultiplesbasedon LOS51.h:Calculateandinterpretthefollowingmultiples:pricetoearnings,pricetoanestimateofoperatingcashflow,pricetosales,andpricetobookvalue.PD1P0D1/

MultiplesbasedonExample:Afirmhasanexpecteddividendpayoutratioof60%,arequiredrateofreturnof11%,andanexpecteddividendgrowthrateof5%.Whatisthefirm’sexpectedP/Eratio?Ifyouexpectnextyear’searnings(E1)tobe0k k0P/EratiowillincreaseAhigherdividendpayoutratio---AhighergrowthAlowerrequiredrateofCanafirmincreaseitsstockpricebyincreasingitsdividendpayoutNOT

$3.50,whatisthevalueofthestockStep1:ExpectedP/Eratio:0.6/(0.11-0.05)=Step2:valueofthestock:(E1)(P/E1)=($3.50)(10)=KnowabouttheearningmultiplierapproachtoThemaindeterminantofthesizeoftheP/Eratioisthedifferencebetweenkandg.TherelevantP/Eratioyoushouldstudyistheexpectedorleadingrationotthehistorical(P0/E0)TheP/EratioisjustarestatementoftheDDM.SoanythingthatstockpricesthroughtheDDMwillalsohavethesameeffectontheP/E MultiplesbasedonTheprice-earnings(P/E)ratioisafirm'sstock/dividedbyearningsperTheprice-sales(P/S)ratioisafirm'sstockdividedbysalesperTheprice-bookvalue(P/B)ratioisafirm'sstockpricedividedbybookvaluepershare.Theprice-cashflow(P/CF)ratioisafirm'sstockdividedbycashflowperCashflowmaybedefinedasoperatingcashfloworcashflow. Multiplesbasedon LOS51.i:Ex intheuseofenterprisevaluemultiplesinequityvaluationanddemonstratetheuseofenterprisevaluemultiplestoestimateequityvalue.Enterprisevalue(EV)measurestotal EV=marketvalueofcommonstock+marketvalueofdebt-cashandshort-terminvestmentsEBITDAisfrequentlyusedasthedenominatorinEVmultiplesbecauseEVrepresentstotal andEBITDArepresentsearningsavailabletoall

EnterprisevalueEnterprisevalue(EV)measurestotal EV=marketvalueofcommonstock+marketvalueofdebt-cashandshort-terminvestmentsEBITDAisfrequentlyusedasthedenominatorinEVmultiplesbecauseEVrepresentstotal andEBITDArepresentsearningsavailabletoall EnterprisevalueLOS51.j:Ex inasset-basedvaluationmodelsanddemonstratetheuseofasset-basedmodelstocalculateequityAsset-basedmodelsvalueequityasthemarketorvalueofassetsminusThesemodel