考博真題匯總社科院98-社會年攻讀

2000年攻讀博 入學(xué)考試試GENERALDIRECTIONS:WRITEYOURLD.NUMBERONTHEANSWERSHEET.CIRCLEYOURANSWER:EXAMPLE:ABCDPARTⅠ:VOCABULARY(15SectionA:Onyouranswersheet,circleandblackouttheletterthatisclosestinmeaningtotheunderlinedword.Theculturallifeofasocialgroup,quasocialgroup,maybesaidtodependuponitscognitivelever.A. B. C. D.ThearticleinsinuatesthatthecrimedidnottakeA.states B.arguesC.positively D.suggestTheinternationalcommittee,atitsannualgeneralmeeting,finallywaivedtheruleaboutthe12monthqualifyingperiod.A. B.agreedinprinciple C. D.TheBulletin,notedforitsimpartialadvice, mendsinarecentissuethatGPsandnurseslearnavarietyofskillstransmittabletopatients.A. B. C. D.SheisanamiablememberoftheA. B. C. D.Whenacarefulindividualspeaks\orwritesthereareusuallynuancesofmeaningthatneedtoberecognized.A.slightannoyancesB.slightdifferences C.slightpreferencesD.slightCivilianoversightofthemeans,amongotherthings,thatswillprobablynotbecoercedintoconfessing.A. B. C. D.ShetoldhernieceshewouldleaveherasmallA. B. C. D.Becausehisinattentionwasresponsiblefortheaccident,hewasA. B. C. D.Theemperor,inestablishingthearchbishopricin968,revealedhisinterestinbothreligiousandpastoralconsiderations.A. B. C. D.AmongtherequisitesofpolitesocietyfiguresabasicpolitenesstoA. B. C. D.Quacksrelyontheanguishofcancersufferers,aswellastheircredulity,fortheirfinancialsuccess.A. B. C. D.ThedebrisfromthecrashwasstrewnoverthecountrysideforA. B. C. D.IftheMinnesotaVikingscontinuetoconfoundtheircritics,theirentryinto offswillbeassured.A. B.confuse C. D.confuseOlderwritersarefrequentlypatronizingtowardsyoungA.supportive B.critical C.kind SectionB:Onyouranswersheet,circleandblackouttheletterthatbestcompletesthesentence.Disruptivebehavioratmeetings ernedbyRobert’sRulesofOrderusuallyresultsinA. B. C. D.In1981,thetwofactorsofconservationmeasuresandworldrecessioninofthedemandforA.B.C.D.Thenewbudgetaryconstraintsforbidtheallocationofsupplementaryfundsifitcanbeestablishedthattheoriginalallotmenthadbeen A. B. C. D.Whenaroomisdwithanadequateamountoffreshair,peopleusuallysayitis A.well-modulatedB.well-simulatedC.well-ventilatedD.well-Youdon’twantaproctoscopeifyouhopeto animage;youwantaA.dis B. C.re D.Amongthe componentsofcontemporaryconstructionfiguresteel,concrete,andglass.A. B. C. D.Zeroorevennegativegrowth,asoaringbudgetarydeficit,a ernmentreportpaintsadismalpicture.A. B. C. D.Theeyetendstoseedistanceas .Inpainting,thisissometimescalled“thevanishingpoint”.A. B. C. D.Manyanunderdevelopedcountry,facedwithcripplingnationaldebt,turnstoagreaterharvestfromitstimberresources.A. B. C. D.Thecourthasbeencastigatedforasteady ofminorityrightsandwomen’srights.A. B. C. D.Hebecamealegendasanoperasinger,notsomuchbecauseofhisvoicerangeoremotiveability,butratherbecauseofhisfiery A. B. C. D.InAmerica,moon-lightingisanattempt A. B. C. D.Thereportscomingfromthesite thatallthehostageshavebeenA. B. C. D.Itislesstoskillthantohardworkthat hiscontinuingA. B. C. D.Theladwasquitefortunateinfindinga toaidhimfinanciallyinhisstudies.A.patron B.patron C.toon D.poltroonPARTⅡ:GRR(15POINTS)SectionA:Onyouranswersheet,circleandblackouttheletterthatisthebestchoiceofwordtofillintheblank.Aswithanyisolatedandlargelyself-containedcommunitytheagriculturalvillagewasoftenfierceloyaltyamongitsinhabitants.A.theobjectionofB.objectivefromC.theobjectofD.Fromitscustomsandtraditionsthevillageastrongsenseofidentityandmorality,which,lookingback,manyeasilybemournedinamoreimal,amoral,anduncertainmodernworld.A.coulddrawinB.coulddrawuponC.woulddrawfromD.wouldWhatthisgalloadvanceinyticalacuitymeansisthatscientistscannowisolatethetiniestamountsofharmfulsubstancesinfoodswhich,,havealwaysbeenconsideredsafe,orinsomecasesbeneficial.A.fromthenB.whenceC. D.Possiblybecausetherearefewbarepatchesofgravelonthatcontinent,becauseofaninnaygregarioushabitofmind,theirrookeriesnumberalmostmillionsofindividuals.A.thoughmostpossiblyB.probablyC.butmoreprobablyD.mostSheobservedquiteunashamedlythatthoughtheyhadbeenmarriedfor8years,sheknewnothingaboutinthearmy.A.heservedB.himhavingservedC.himtoserveD.hishavingbeenTheMaryRosewasaremarkableship,haverarelybeenA.thelikesofwhichB.likewhichC.whichthelikesD.whichofthecanbeseenbytheresultsofthestudy,theprincipleseemstorequiretheactiveinvolvementofthepatientinthemodificationofhiscondition.A.AsB.WhatC.ThatD.Testscoresdonotimprovebymagic,Improvingyourtestscores,especiallyitcomestoclassroomtests,dependsonngtheassignments.A. B. C. D.Iwouldnottakehisclaimtobeinganauthorityveryseriously. knowsabouthisareeitherinaccurateoroutdated.A.How B.That C.How D.WhatForthepurposesofthestudy,itwasatthebeginningandattheendofpreschoolandfirstgradethatobservationsweremade thechildren.A. B. C. 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criminal,Onyouranswersheet,circleandblackouttheletterforthewordthatbestfitsinthesentencesbelow.Therestoftheafternoonpassedslowly.Iwasn’tableto1onthebriefI2submitforthesodomycaseIwasscheduledto3 4,andIwasdesperateto5unnecessaryphoneconversations.Theonlyphonecall6interestwasfromMercer.Hewaspleased“Katherine’sFryer’s7isthebest8.She’sreallygoodon9characteristics.She’s10aboutthe11andshapeofthemustache.Ineverhadanillustratorasavictim12butitsurehelpsthesketchtakeonsome13.”Iknewexactlywhathe14.The15descriptionstartedwithwitnessessayingthey’re16atngthis,andthattheguywasaverageheight,averageweight,averagelooking,17distinctiveabouthisappearance,andsoon.Ihadafolderfullof18ofwantedswholookedlikeeverybodyand19.Tryanddisyonetoajuryandclaimresemblancetothedefendantontrialanditwasmorelikelytolooklikethreeofthe20.Noguilty.a. b. c. d.a. b.ought c.had d.a. b. c. hreea. b. c. d.a. b. c. d.a. c. d.a. b.to c. d.a.facialb. c. d.a. b. c. d.a. b. c. d.a.agob. c. d.a. b. c. d.a.describedb.inferredc.definedd.a. 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d.a.defendantsb.jurorsc.samed.PARTⅣ:READINGCOMPREHENSION(30Onyouranswersheet,circleandblackouttheletterthatbestanswersthequestionsbelow.PassageObviously,thepercapitaeofacountrydependsonmanythings,andanystatisticaltestthatdoesnottakeaccountofallimportantdeterminantsismisspecified,andthusmustbeusedonlyfordescriptiveandheuristicpurposes.Itisnonethelessinteresting–andformanypeoplesurprising–tofindthatthereisapositiveandevenastatisticallysignificantrelationshipbetweenthesetwovariables:thegreaterthenumberofpeoplepersquarekilometerthehigherthepercapitae.Thelawofdiminishingreturnsisnotinvariablytrue:itwouldbeabsurdtosupposethatalargerendowmentoflandipsofactomakesacountrypoorer.Thisconsiderationbyitselfwould,ofcourse,callforanegativesignonpopulationdensity.Thus,itisinterestingtoaskwhatmightaccountforthe“wrong”signandtothinkofwhatstatisticaltestsshouldultimaybedone.Clearlythereisasimultaneoustwo-wayrelationshipbetweenpopulationdensityandpercapitae:thelevelofpercapitaeaffectspopulationgrowthjustaspopulation,byincreasingthelabor,affectspercapitae.Theargumentofferedheresuggeststhatperhapscountrieswithbettereconomicpoliciesandinstitutionscometohavehigherpercapitaesthancountrieswithinferiorpoliciesandinstitutions,andthatthesehigheresbringaboutahigherpopulationgrowththroughmoreimmigrationandlowerdeathrates.Inthisway,theeffectsofbetterinstitutionsandpoliciesinraisingpercapitaeswampsthetendencyofdiminishingreturnstolabortoreduceit.Thishypothesismayalsoexinwhymanyempiricalstudieshavenotbeenabletoshowanegativeassociationbetweentherateofpopulationgrowthandincreasesinpercapitae.Onereasonwhytheratioofnaturalresourcestopopulationdoesnotaccountforvariationsinpercapitaeisthatmosteconomicactivitycannowreadilybeseparatedfromdepositsofrawmaterialandarableland.Overtime,transportationhavecertainlyimproved,andproductsthathaveahighvalueinrelationtotheirweight,suchasmostservicesandmanufacturedgoodslikecomputersandairnes,mayhaveemoreimportant.TheSiliconValleyisnotimportantforthemanufactureofcomputersbecauseofthedepositsofsilicon,andLondonandZuricharenotgreatbankingcentersbecauseoffertileland.Evencasualobservationsuggeststhatmostmodernmanufacturingandserviceexportsarenotcloselytiedtonaturalresources.WesternEuropedoesnotnowhaveahighratioofnaturalresourcestopopulation,butitisveryimportantintheexportofmanufacturesandservices.Inaparallelway,thestrikingsuccessofJapan,HongKong,andSingapore,withrelativelyfewnaturalresourcespercapita,cannotbeexinedbyreliancethereon.Inparagraph1,threewordsareinforreasonsofEnglishlanguagebecause alreasonofinordertohighlighttheirtohelpthereaderavoidThepeoplewhoaresurprisedaresobecausetheyhaveassumedthereisapositivecorrelationbetweenthetwothehighertheper ethelowerthepopulationthegreaterthenumberofpeoplethegreatertheper therelationshipbetweenthevariablesisstatisticallyWithwhichofthefollowingstatementswouldtheauthorOnewouldnotordinarilysupposethatalargecountrywouldbeAnegativesignonpopulationdensitymaybeawrongPer edependsonthesizeofthelaborTheauthorwouldagreewithalloftheaboveTheword“here”inparagraph3,line1“atthisvery“inthis“inthisThepopulationgrowthincountrieswithhigherper comesnotfromthebirthrateofthecitizensbutratherfromtheinfluxofothers.isanaturalresultbecausethecitizenshavemoremoneyforisonlyanartifactbasedonadecliningbirthdoesnotinvalidatethepopulationgrowthofpoorerWhichofthefollowingstatementsisNoneofthefollowingstatementsisSiliconValleyhasgreatdepositsofLondonandZurichhavevastamountsofarableWesternEuropehasalwaysdependedonPassageTheproceduresfollowedbyscholarsstudyinglitureareoftenunsatisfactory:thecontroloveracognitiveprojectasawholeisoftenlost.Theliryscholarseemstobecollectingdata-whichisapreliminaryoperation-withoutmakinguseofthem.Likeadiligentantgatheringfooditwillnevereat,thecontemporaryliryscholarseemsintentuponwritingfootnotesofabooks/hewillnevertrytoread.Iproposethatattheoutsetofaresearchprojectitisnecessarytorenderexplicitthequestionsthescholarwilltrytoanswer,whatmethodswillbeusedandwhyandthereasonwhys/hethinksthatitmaybeworthwhileansweringsuchquestions.More,theworkofthepeopleconcernedwiththestudyoflitureseemscasual.Forinstance,muchresearchisdevotedtooneauthor,oftenontheoccasionofan.Nowthereisnoreasontothinkthatourobservationswillbemorevalid,urgent,appropriate,useful,oriftheauthorofthetextsweareconcernedwithwasbornordiedorthetextswerewrittenfifty,onehundred,ortwohundredyearsago.Thisseemstobecelebrationandnotresearchproducingknowledge.Itdoesnotseemtomakeanysensetodetermineone’sresearchprogrambylookingatthecalendar.Thewidespreadhabitoflimitingthescopeofaresearchprojecttoasingleauthoroftenleadstoaconfinedunderstandingoftheauthorandthetexts,which,inturn,offersmarginalresults.Theaverageliryscholarconsiderstheseresultssatisfactory.Butforwhatpurposearetheysatisfactory?Oftentheresearchstrategiesandmethodsoftheliryscholararerepetitive.Anewoperationthatisogoustopreviousonesisoftenconsideredworthwhile:itisonthesepremisesthatmanytextsconcerninglitureareproducedandaccepted.Iproposeinsteadthatinaconcreteprojectthattriestoproduceknowledge,anystatementneedsverification.Butthereisapointwhereitisunnecessarytorepeatthesameoperationonnewdata,becausetheresulthasalreadybeenestablished:ratherthanadditionalconfirmationofwhatisalreadyknown,itistheexplorationofwhatisstillunknownthatdeservespriority.Contemporaryliryresearchseemstobebasedonhabitsthatoriginatedinthepastandthatbearlittleresemblancetoresearchprojectsastheyareintendednowinotherfields.Ifoutmainaimweretheproposalofsomeobjectsasculturalmodels,thenitwouldbeusefultoourpurposetotrytoattractoursociety’sattentiontowardtheseobjectsandtheswhoproducedthem.Itwouldbereasonabletoperformouractionsontheoccasionofanniversaries,becausewewouldnotbengresearch,butcelebrationandpropaganda.Celebrationaimsatconfirmingcertitudesandstrengtheningbondsofsolidarityamongtheparticipants.Itdoesnotproduceknowledge,butitconfirmswhatisalreadyknown.Legitimatingbymeansofthepowerofwordshasbeenformanycenturiesthemainjobofthemanofletters.Intheviewofthewriter,scholarsstudyinglitureneedresearchmoreestablishaclearpurposebeforecommencingdecreasethenumberofavoidwritingspecialworkstocelebrateThewriterofthisarticleiscriticalofmodern ryresearchitusestoomanyitisnotconcreteitreliesonestablishedmethodsthathavenotchangeditistooAccordingtothewriter,writingaboutanauthorontheirisusefulbecauseitcreatesstrongertieswiththeisusefulbecauseitstrengthenstheculturalisusefulbecauseitiscelebrationandcelebrationconfirmsisnotusefulsinceitdoesnotaddmuchtothepoolofestablishedInparagraph3,sentence2,thewords“topreviousones”referspreviousauthorswrittenaboutbyearlierscholarswhowrotecomparative ryearliermethodsforrepeatsofThiscriticizesthelimitedapproachtakenbymanyli ryscholarsintheircriticizestheapproachtakentofootnotesin rysupporttheideathat ryscholarsmustremainacohesivemaintainsthatmorecareful aldateneedstobecollectedaboutInthewriter’srepetitionoveraperiodoftimecanprovideevidenceinresearchisc.celebratoryresearchdoesnotrequireresearchconcerninganauthorfromantiquitydoesnotrequirePassageAfterarunofseveralthousandyours,itisentirelyfittingthat2000willbemarkedastheyearthetidetunedagainsttaxation.ClaytabletsrecallthetaxesofHammurabiintheBabylonof2000BC,butthepracticeiscertainlyolder.Peopleinpowerhavealwaystriedtodivertsomeoftheproceedsofeconomicactivityintheirowndirection.Lordstookfeudalduesfromtheirvassals;landownerstooktollsfrommerchants;gangsterstookprotectionmoneyfromsmallbusinesses;ernmentstooktaxesfromtheircitizens.Despitethedifferentnames,theprinciplehasremainedconstant:thosewhodonotproducetakeresourcesfromthosewhodo,andspenditonaltogetherdifferentthings.Thetideisturningbecauseoftheconvergenceofseveralfactors.Inthefirstce,taxesareinghardertocollect.capitalismorethanever,andinclinedtoflyfromcesthattaxtocesthatdonot.ernmentsdonotmovetheirboundariesandjurisdictionsasrapidlyascompaniescanchangelocations.Attemptstoestablishtrans-nationaltaxpowersarealmostcertainlydoomedbyinternationalcompetitiontoattracteconomicactivity.Manybusinesseswillchoosetostayoutofreach.TheglobaleconomyandtheInternetmeanthatpurchasescannowcrossfrontiers.Peoplebuybooks,clothes,andcarsfromabroad,andanyfinanceministerwholikestotaxtheseitemsfindhistaxbasediminishing.Itisnotonlycapitalandgoodswhicharehardertopindown.Evenwagesarecrossingfrontiers.Theriseoftheservicesectormeansthatmanye-generatingactivitiescantakeceacrossfrontiers,causingyetmoreheadachesforover-stretchedpublictreasuries.Furthermore,thepaceofelectronic,hard-to-traceactivityisaccelerating.Nolessimportanthasbeentheriseofpolitical .Thepastquarter-centuryhasbeenmarkedbyamovementledinBritainandAmericaitselfinCalifornia’sfamoustax-cuttingreferendumProposition13,butsawitsexpressionintheThatcherandReagantaxcutsofthe1980’s.Britain’sToriesenteredofficein1979withthetoprateofetaxat98%,andleftoffice18yearslaterwithatoprateof40%.Indeed,theirLabouropponentsbecameelectableonlyafterafirmpromisenottoraiseitagain.Theinfactisthatelectoratesthesedayswillnotstandforit.Theyrecognize,correctly,thaternmentsspendtheirmoneylesscarefullyandlessefficientlythantheycanspenditOneofthegreatestusesoftaxmoneyistoprovidepensions.Andherearevolution-asimportantandpervasiveasprivatization-issweetheworld.Fully-fundedalpensionns,basedonindividualsavings,aresweeawaythepoorlyfundedpublicpensionspromisedbyernments.Thelattertaketaxesfromtheyoungtosupporttheold.Theformerinvestsavingsfromtheyoungtosupportthemselveswhenold.Themainideaofthistextistaxationischangingandwillcontinuetowaysofcollectingtaxhavepensionsareincreasinglybeingpaidoutoftaxpayer’spublicmoneyisbeingmisspentinmostwesternTaxesaremoredifficulttocollectitisalmostimpossibletotaxtransnationaloftheincreaseinbuyinggoodsthroughthesomeburgeoningareasofemploymenthaveactivitiesthatarenoteasilyalloftheThebiggestchangeinisinprovidentisprivatizationofisinindividualpensionnswhicharerecingernmentistheincreasedtax alFromthisarticleitisevidentsmallbusinesswillcontinuetobeheavilyin etaxwillrisetoatoprateofmanylargecompaniescanstillavoidpayinghighglobalizationismakingtax-collectionAccordingtothisarticle,thepeoplewhohavemanyproblemsrelatingtotaxthethethethefinanceministersofvariousTrans-nationaldonothavetopayareoftenencouragedbyacountrytopaylessallofthePassageHandwritingysis(graphology)circumventsthelawbytryingtodetermineanemployee’straits(e.g.,stability)accordingtosomehandwritinggroupstereotypetowhichheorshebelongs.(Indeed,somegraphologistshavesolittlerespectforthelawandsomuchconfidenceintheirstereotythattheyhaveproposedusingthetechniqueinlieuofcourtproceedingstoidentifyandprosecutecriminals!)Theysisworksbycomparingthespeed,size,slant,formpressure,layout,andcontinuityofanindividual’shandwritingwithvariouspatternsandtypologies,andassimilatingthis’sscriptintothesetypes.Asaresulttheindividualjudgedceasestobeanindividualandeslittlemorethanacompositeoftraits.Thisendresultdifferslittlefromjudgementsbasedon,religion,Granted,noindividualistotallyunique.Anyevaluationofcharacter,orforthatmatter,skills,turns,insomemeasure,onemployinggenericideasaboutvirtue,vice,andtechnicalcompetence.Still,thereisahumanindividualitywhichmanifestsitselfinourimaginationandintheinnovativeargumentswechoosetoadvance.Standardizedhandwritingysisisfarlessrespectfulofindividualityinthislattersensethanothermodesofscreening.Individualswhoareaskedtowriteaalessaydescribingtheirqualificationsintheirownterms;andwhoaregivenanopportunityinaninterviewtodescribetheirmotivationsinseekingaparticularjobretainfarmoreofwhatmakesthemdistinctive.Thatmorealizedformatgivestheindividualanopportunitytoexpressunusualorprovocativeopinionstheemployermaynothavepreviouslyconsidered.Uponreflection,theemployermaythinkthesecommentssopertinentthats/hethejobtothiscandidate.Handwritingysis,though,isostensiblypurelyformal.Itdoesnotprovidethecandidatewithanyopportunitytodistinguishhimselforherselfinthissubstantivefashion.Atbest,graphologywillyieldsomevagueassessmentsuchas“thecandidateishighlycreative”.Itisworthrememberingwhatthedrivingisbehindgraphologicaltesting.Handwritingysis,likeautomatedephonescreening,itincreasinglybeingusedearlyinthehiringprocessbecauseitpurportstodeliversalient,accurateinformationcheaply.Yetpreciselybecausethesetechniquesarestandardized,thedatehasreducedvalue.Judgementsaboutthepreciserelevanceofsomeperceivedcharactertraitstoajobarerarelystraightforward.Goodinterviewerslearnthroughtrainingandthroughinctionitselftoqualifypreviousjudgements.Perhapsthecandidatewhofailstomakeeyecontacthasaguiltyconscience(asitisstandardlyassumed).Ontheotherhand,perhapsthecandidateisarecentimmigrantfromacountrywheredirecteyecontactisconsideredrude.Alternateinterpretationssometimessuggestthemselvesinaface-to-faceencounterwithindividualswhoarefullypresentintheirliving,acting,andspeakinghood.Handwritingysis,doneatadistancebyanexpertwhohasneverevenmetthecandidate,willnotstimulatetheevaluator’simaginationinthewaythein-intervieworalessaymight.Oncontrary,thecheapnessofthetechniquestemsfromitseliminationoftheimportanthumanactivityofhypothesizingaboutthecaseathand.Themainpurposeofthisarticletocriticizethepracticeofaskingwould-beemployeestodonon-interviewtocriticizecurrentpracticesbyemployersinscreeningfuturetoargueagainsttheysisofhandwritingforthepurposesofobtainingajob.toargueagainstemployerswhostereotypeAccordingtothisarticle,handwritingysisisusedbysomecompaniesitisitispreferableandcheaperthanephoneitmaintainsthatitcanprovideaccurateinformationaboutanoticeablecharacteristicsatacheapitisusefulinamulticulturalsociety/situation,wherethecandidatemightbefromanotherculture.Theexpression“inthislattersense”inparagraph2refershumanindividualityasrevealedinhumans’capacitytothinkandtechnicalhumanindividualityshowningeneralindividualityshownthroughThewriterbelievesthathandwritingysisischeapitdeliversaccurateithelpstoavoidlisteningtocandidatesexiningtheirownideasaboutasituation.itdealsinfactsonly,notimaginationoritusesstandardizedthewriterpeople’sgood,experiencednon-discriminatoryalloftheBasedonthearticlewemaysaythatthewriterbelievesevaluationof ispeoplearegenerallyeasilyemployerscannotmeasureacandidate’squalificationsshouldbesufficienttogetaPassageAtsometimearound2300BC,giveortakeacenturyortwo,alargenumberofthemajorcivilizationsoftheworldcollapsed,inMesopotamia,Egypt,Israel,Anatolia,andGreece,aswellasinAfghanistanand.Allofthem-theurbancivilizations-fellintoruinatmoreorlessthesametime.Athousandyearslater,around1200BC,manyofthecivilizationsofthesameregionsagaincollapsedataboutthesametime.Thereasonsforthesewidespreadandapparentlysimultaneousdisasters-whichcoincidedwithchangestoculturesandsocietieselsewhere,suchasinBritain-havelongbeenafascinatingmystery.Traditionalexnationsincludedwarfare,famine,andmorerecently’systemscollapse,buttheapparentabsenceofdirectarchaeologicalorwrittenevidenceforcauses,asopposedtoeffects,hasledmanyarchaeologistsandhistoriansintoaresignedassumptionthatnodefiniteexnationcanbefound.Overthepast15years,however,anewtypeof’naturaldisaster’hasbeenprofferedwhichisbeginningtoberegardedbymanyscholarsasthemostprobablesingleexnationforwidespreadandsimultaneousculturalcollapse.Thenewtheoryhasbeenadvancedlargelybyastronomersandremainslargelyunknownbyarchaeologists(notableexceptionsincludeProfessorBaillieofBelfastandDR.EuanMackieinGlasgow).ThetheorypostulatesthatthedisasterswerecausedbytheimpactofcometsorothertypesofcosmicdebrisontheEarth.FrencharchaeologistClaudeSchaeffer,in1948,publishedhisysisandcomparedthedestructionlayersofmorethan40archaeologicalsites.HewasthefirstscholartodetectthatallofthesiteshadbeentotallydestroyedseveraltimesintheEarly,MiddleandLateBronzeAge,apparentlysimultaneously.Sincethedamagedidnotshowsignsofmilitaryorotherhumaninvolvement,and,inanycase,wastooexcessive,hearguedthatrepeatedseismicactivitymighthavebeenSchaefferwasnottakenseriouslyin1948,butsincethennaturalscientiseshavefoundwidespreadandunambiguousevidenceforabruptclimatechange,suddensealevelchanges,catastrophicinundations,andseismicactivityatseveralperiodssincethelastIceAge-particularlyaround2300BC.AreassuchastheSahara,whichwereoncefarmed,becamedeserts.Treeringsshowdisastrousconditionsatc.2350BC.InMesopotamiathelandappearstohavebeeninundated,devastated,ortotallyburned.Scholarswho,followingSchaeffer,favorearthquakesastheprincipalcauseofcivilizationcollapse,arguethattheworldcanexpectearthquakesevery1,000-2,000years,leadingtoabandonmentofsites;whilescholarswhopreferclimatechangeastheprincipalcausearguethatseveredroughtscausedagriculturetofailandthatsocietiesinexorablyfellapartasaresult.Thequestionremainedwhatcausedtheclimatechangeortheearthquakes.Bythelate1970’sBritishastronomersClubeandNapierofOxfordUniversityhadbeguntoinvestigatecometaryimpactastheultimatecause.In1980,theNobelprize-winningchemistLuisAlvarezandhiscolleaguespublishedtheirpaperarguingthatacosmicimpacthadcausedtheextinctionofthedinosaurs.Heshowedthatlargeamountsofiridiumfoundingeologicallayersfromthetim