創(chuàng)新就像是在大海上沖浪

InnovationAsAJourneylntoTheFuture創(chuàng)新就像是在大海上沖浪Irecentlyreadanexcellentinnovationreport,'SurfingTowardtheFuture:Chileinthe2025',whichnaturallyfocusesonChile,butoffersmanyfindingsandrecommendationsthatapplytotheU.S.andmostotheradvancedandemergingeconomies.我最近讀到一篇講創(chuàng)新的報(bào)告，很不錯(cuò)，題目是“向未來沖浪：2025年的智利"(SurfingTowardtheFuture:Chileinthe2025)。報(bào)告當(dāng)然是以智利為重點(diǎn)，但它也給出了很多適用于美國(guó)及其他大部分發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體和新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的結(jié)論和建議。ThedocumentwasdevelopedbyChile'sNationalInnovationCouncilforCompetitiveness(CNIC),apublic-privateorganizationchargedwithprovidingadvicetostrengtheninnovationandcompetitivenessinthecountry.ThereportwaspresentedtoChile'sPresidentSebastianPieraonAugust6.報(bào)告由智利國(guó)家競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力創(chuàng)新委員會(huì)(NationalInnovationCouncilforCompetitiveness，簡(jiǎn)稱CNIC)編寫，8月6日呈遞給智利總統(tǒng)塞瓦斯蒂安?皮涅拉(SebastianPinera)。CNIC是一家公私合營(yíng)組織，負(fù)責(zé)提供如何提高該國(guó)創(chuàng)新水平和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的建議。ButthisislikenoinnovationdocumentI'veread.Whilethe'SurfingTowardtheFuture'reportrecommendsthelongterminitiativesChileshouldprioritize-energyandsustainability,biologyandlifesciences,education,andthedevelopmentofaninnovationculture-it'showthereportexpandsourideaofinnovationbyaskingreaderstolookatitinamorehistoricaltimeframethatmakesthisreportstandout.但這份報(bào)告不同于我讀過的任何有關(guān)創(chuàng)新的文件?！断蛭磥頉_浪》建議智利重視能源與可持續(xù)發(fā)展、生物學(xué)與生命科學(xué)、教育、創(chuàng)新文化的培育等長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)議程，但這份報(bào)告的與眾不同之處在于，它邀請(qǐng)讀者在一個(gè)更大的歷史框架之下來看待創(chuàng)新，從而拓寬我們頭腦中的創(chuàng)新概念。Thelanguageisalsomoreliterarythanistypicalfortechnicalorbusinessdocuments.Thisisnotsurprisingsincethereport'sauthor,CNICheadFernandoFlores,isanaccomplishedwriterinbothEnglishandSpanish.HehasaPh.DfromUCBerkeleyandhasworkedextensivelyasanentrepreneurandconsultantincomputerscience,humancognitionandorganizationalleadership.Hehaswrittenanumberofbooks,including'UnderstandingComputersandCognition:aNewFoundationforDesign'and'BuildingTrust:inBusiness,Politics,RelationshipsandLife'.其措辭也比技術(shù)文件或商業(yè)文件中的常見措辭更有文采。這不奇怪，因?yàn)閳?bào)告作者、CNIC主席賽爾南多?弗洛雷斯(FernandoFlores)本身就是一位造詣?lì)H深的英文和西班牙文作家。他擁有加州大學(xué)伯克利分校(UCBerkeley)的博士學(xué)位，在計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)、人類認(rèn)知和組織領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力領(lǐng)域有著豐富的創(chuàng)業(yè)和咨詢經(jīng)驗(yàn)。他寫過好幾本書，比如《理解計(jì)算機(jī)與認(rèn)知：設(shè)計(jì)的新基礎(chǔ)》(UnderstandingComputersandCognition:aNewFoundationforDesign)和《建立信任：商界、政壇、人際與生活》(BuildingTrust:inBusiness,Politics,RelationshipsandLife)等。IfirstmetMr.FloresduringatriptoChileinAugustof2006toattendaconference.HewasaSenatorthen,apositionheheldfromMarchof2002untilhisappointmenttopresidentoftheInnovationCouncil.Wediscoveredthatwehadanumberofcommoninterests-inadditiontoourcommonlanguage-andhavesincebecomefriendsandmetanumberoftimesinChileandtheU.S.我第一次見到弗洛雷斯是2006年8月去智利參加一個(gè)論壇期間，那時(shí)候他還是參議員。從2002年3月份直到被任命為CNIC主席，他一直是參議員。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，兩個(gè)人之間除了共同語(yǔ)言之外還有好幾種共同興趣，于是后來成了朋友，在智利和美國(guó)都見過多次。Thereportadmitsthatmanyviewinnovationasbeingprimarilythecombinationofscience,technologyandcreativitythatgivesrisetonewproductsandservices.Mr.Floresbelievesthatthisistoolimitedaview.Toreallyunderstanditspowerandtheroleithasplayedthroughouthumancivilization,heasksustolookatinnovationinamorehistoricaltimeframe.Innovationisessentiallyhowindividuals,communitiesandinstitutionsdealwithperiodsofacceleratingchangesandhistoricaltransitions.Thisiswhy,givenourongoingtransitionfromtheindustrialeconomyofthepasttwocenturiestoanewinformation-basedeconomy,we'vebeensofocusedoninnovationoverthepastdecadeandarelikelytocontinuetodosowellintothefuture.報(bào)告承認(rèn)，很多人眼中的創(chuàng)新首先是科學(xué)、技術(shù)和創(chuàng)造力的組合，這種組合使新的產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)得以誕生。弗洛雷斯認(rèn)為這一觀點(diǎn)過于狹隘。為了真正理解創(chuàng)新的力量以及它在人類文明史上扮演的角色，他邀請(qǐng)我們?cè)诟蟮臍v史框架里審視創(chuàng)新。從本質(zhì)上講，創(chuàng)新就是個(gè)人、群體和組織對(duì)加速變革時(shí)期和歷史轉(zhuǎn)折期的應(yīng)對(duì)。因此，鑒于我們正在從過去兩個(gè)世紀(jì)的工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)向一種以信息為基礎(chǔ)的新型經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)變，過去10年我們是如此關(guān)注創(chuàng)新，將來也很有可能會(huì)繼續(xù)關(guān)注創(chuàng)新。Theseacceleratingchangesareshakingourmostfundamentalbeliefsandassumptions.Theyincludeeconomicandculturalglobalization,longerlifespans,theempowermentofindividualsandcommunitiesandpotentiallyseriousdisruptionstotheplanet'secology.'Weshouldallthinkofourselvesasnewimmigrantstoourpresenthyperconnectedworld,'ishowNYTimescolumnistTomFriedmancharacterizedourtimesataSeptember2011conferenceIattended.We'retravelersinanuncertainjourneythatisfraughtwiththeperilsofcreativedestructionaswellasthepromiseofexcitingnewopportunities.But,wehavenochoicebuttoembarkonthejourney,despitenotquiteknowingwhereweareheadingorwhatmajordisruptionslieahead.這些越來越快的變化正在動(dòng)搖我們最根本的信念和假設(shè)。它們包括經(jīng)濟(jì)與文化全球化、預(yù)期壽命延長(zhǎng)、個(gè)人與群體獲權(quán)，以及地球生態(tài)可能遭遇嚴(yán)重破壞等?！拔覀?nèi)紤?yīng)該把自己當(dāng)作進(jìn)入當(dāng)今這個(gè)超連接世界的新移民?！薄都~約時(shí)報(bào)》(NYTimes)專欄作家湯姆?弗里德曼(TomFriedman)在2011年9月份我參加的一個(gè)論壇上如此形容我們的時(shí)代。我們是一條不確定行程上的旅客，這個(gè)行程上布滿創(chuàng)造性破壞造成的險(xiǎn)境，也布滿激動(dòng)人心的新機(jī)會(huì)帶給人的希望。但我們別無選擇，只能繼續(xù)走下去，盡管不太清楚是在往哪個(gè)方向走，前面會(huì)有什么樣的重大波折。Successfulinnovationsrequirethreemajorforcestocometogether.Firstisthecreativeandentrepreneurialcapacitytounderstandwhatthemarketisreadyforandbeabletocomeupwiththerightideasfornewproductsandservices.But,todevelopandbringthemtomarket,youalsoneedtherightecosystem-includingtechnologies,tools,production,saleschannels,supportservices,marketingandfinance.Finally,customershavetobereadytochange,breakwiththepastandembracetheinnovative,newproductsandservices.成功的創(chuàng)新需要有三股重要力量結(jié)合在一起。首先是理解市場(chǎng)需要什么、給出合適的產(chǎn)品服務(wù)創(chuàng)意的創(chuàng)造能力和創(chuàng)業(yè)能力。而要開發(fā)出新產(chǎn)品、新服務(wù)并把它們推向市場(chǎng)，也需要有合適的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，包括技術(shù)、工具、生產(chǎn)、銷售渠道、支持服務(wù)、營(yíng)銷和金融等。最后，客戶必須是做好了迎接變革的準(zhǔn)備，可以跟過去決裂、迎接創(chuàng)新性的產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)。Innovationisthustheresultofahighlycomplex,dynamicecosystem,notunliketheecosystemsyoufindinevolutionarybiologythathavegivenrisetothediversityoflifeinourplanet.Inaddition,innovationinvolvescomplexinteractionsacrossmultipletimehorizons,fromthenear-termincrementalimprovementstomatureproductstothelongtermemergenceofhighlydisruptiveinnovationsandnewscientificdisciplines.因此創(chuàng)新源自高度復(fù)雜、活躍的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，其復(fù)雜和活躍程度與進(jìn)化生物學(xué)中形成地球生命多樣化的那些生態(tài)系統(tǒng)別無二致。除此以外，創(chuàng)新還涉及多個(gè)時(shí)間范圍的復(fù)雜互動(dòng)：有短時(shí)間范圍內(nèi)讓產(chǎn)品臻于成熟的增量式改良，也有長(zhǎng)時(shí)間范圍內(nèi)高破壞性創(chuàng)新和新科學(xué)原理的出現(xiàn)。Companiesandeconomiesmustcontinuallyimprovetheirexistingproductsandservicesthroughincrementalinnovationsaswellasextensionstoadjacentmarkets.But,theyalsoneedtounderstandthemajorlongtermtechnical,economicandsocietalchangesanddevelopavisionofthefuture.Suchavisionisneededtohelpguidethecompany'smajordirections,includingwhichlearningcurvestheyshouldgeton.Withoutit,thecompanyrunstheriskofmissingthebigpictureandgettingleftbehindbyafastmovingworld.企業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)體必須通過增量創(chuàng)新、向鄰近市場(chǎng)拓展來持續(xù)地改良現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)，同時(shí)也需要理解長(zhǎng)時(shí)間范圍內(nèi)技術(shù)、經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)方面的重大變革，對(duì)未來形成一套展望。這樣的展望是指引企業(yè)大方向（比如應(yīng)該遵循什么樣的學(xué)習(xí)曲線）所需，沒有它，企業(yè)就有可能看不清大形勢(shì)，被飛快前進(jìn)的世界甩在身后。Mr.Floresproposesaninnovationstyleforfacingsuchanunpredictablefuture,whichhecallssurfinghistory.Itissimilartothestyleofsuccessfulentrepreneurs.Itrequiresovercomingourfearsofchangeanduncertainty,andtransformingourconcernsforthefutureintoconcreteactionsandcommitmentsinthepresent.弗洛雷斯提出一種直面這種不確定未來的創(chuàng)新風(fēng)格，他稱之為“在歷史中沖浪”。這種風(fēng)格和成功企業(yè)家的風(fēng)格相似，要求克服我們對(duì)變化和不確定性的恐懼，把我們對(duì)未來的憂慮轉(zhuǎn)化為當(dāng)下的實(shí)際行動(dòng)和決心。Theanalogytosurfingisintriguing.Surferscanneverbesurehowthewaveswillflow.Andtheymustbeonwatchfordangerouswavesthatcanpotentiallyhurtorevenkillthem.'Thoughthesurferscannotgoanywheretheyplease-itwouldbenaivetopretendtocontrolthesea-byremaininginconstantharmonywiththewavesandreceptivetowhatappears,theycanfindthespaceofstabilityandapathforward,'writesFlores.沖浪比喻很有意思。沖浪的人從不知道海浪將如何流動(dòng)，他們必須留意那些有可能傷害甚至殺死他們的危險(xiǎn)浪頭。弗洛雷斯寫道：“雖然沖浪者做不到想往哪沖就往哪沖（自以為能掌控海洋是幼稚之舉），但通過與浪頭保持持續(xù)的和諧并樂于接受眼前出現(xiàn)的東西，他們可以找到穩(wěn)定的立足地和前進(jìn)的道路?！?Tosurftheemergingwavesofhistorywemustfreeourselvesfromthemorepragmaticconversations.Thosearethemostcommonanddailyconversations,theonesweoperatewithinanestablishedworldofthings,institutionsandrolesinordertomeetourdailyneedsanddesires.Beyondpragmaticconversations,thehistorysurfersengageinconversationsthatdisclosenewworlds,tunedtoanomaliesthatsuddenlycometolightasnewhorizons...Thiskindofcouragethatwecallradicalhopeemergesfromtheconfidencethathumanswillkeepmovingforward,reinventingthemeaningofourexistence.'“要暢行于歷史中不斷涌現(xiàn)的浪頭之上，我們必須把自己從更加現(xiàn)實(shí)的對(duì)話中解放出來。這些對(duì)話是最常見、最日常的對(duì)話，是我們?cè)谑挛?、組織和角色的既成世界中進(jìn)行的對(duì)話，目的是滿足我們的日常需求和欲望。在現(xiàn)實(shí)對(duì)話之外，歷史沖浪者還參與那些揭示新世界的對(duì)話，習(xí)慣于那些像新的地平線一樣突然出現(xiàn)的非常態(tài)……這種勇氣我們稱之為激進(jìn)希望，它源自這樣一種信心：人類將會(huì)繼續(xù)前進(jìn)，重尋存在的意義?！盠etmeconcludebysayingafewwordsaboutacoupleofthelongterminitiativesthatthe'SurfingTowardtheFuture'reportrecommendsChileshouldfocusitseffortson.最后讓我說一下《向未來沖浪》建議智利關(guān)注的幾個(gè)長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)議程。Inbiologyandthelifesciences,forexample,thereportnotesthatarevolutionisunderwaythatwillhaveglobalimpactsonhealth,food,energyandtheenvironment.Thisrevolutionisbeingdrivenbytheagingofthepopulationsinmuchoftheworld,whichissignificantlyincreasingthesocialcostsofdealingwitholderadults;bypersonalizedmedicine,whichwilltransformthehealthcareindustryaroundtheworldandwillultimatelyleadtolongerandhealthierlives;andbysyntheticbiology,whichpromisesmajorscientificadvancesinfoodandenergyproductionsbutalsoraisesmanyquestionsconcerninggeneticallymodifiedorganisms.比如報(bào)告指出，生物學(xué)和生命科學(xué)領(lǐng)域正在發(fā)生一場(chǎng)革命，它將對(duì)衛(wèi)生、食品、能源和環(huán)境產(chǎn)生全球性的影響。這場(chǎng)革命背后的推動(dòng)因素，有世界很多國(guó)家都存在的人口老齡化，它顯著提高了照顧老年人的社會(huì)成本；有定制化醫(yī)療，它將給全世界的醫(yī)療產(chǎn)業(yè)帶來轉(zhuǎn)型，最終將延長(zhǎng)人的壽命、提高人的健康水平；有合成生物學(xué)，它有望帶來食品和能源生產(chǎn)的重大科學(xué)進(jìn)展，但也導(dǎo)致了很多涉及到轉(zhuǎn)基因的問題。Oneducation,thereportobservesthatthedeepfuturechangesweexpectdemandequallymajorchangestooureducationalsystems.Highschooleducationmusttakeresponsibilityformotivatingyoungpeoplebycreatingspaceswheretheycandiscoverthatlearningisanimportantandexcitingadventuretheywillbeinvolvedinthroughtheirwholelives.Highereducation,whichisincreasinglyarequirementfordecentjobsinourknowledgeeconomy,mustreduceitsrapidlyrisingcostswhicharekeepingaqualityeducationoutofthereachofsomanyyoungpeoplearoundtheworld.Theadventofmassiveopenonlinecourses(MOOCs)andotherformsofonlineandhybridlearningpromisetoradicallyexpandaccesstolow-costqualityeducationaroundtheworld.在教育方面，報(bào)告認(rèn)為，預(yù)計(jì)在將來發(fā)生的深度變革要求我們對(duì)教育體制進(jìn)行同樣大刀闊斧的改革。高中教育必須承擔(dān)起激發(fā)年輕人的責(zé)任，為年輕人開辟出空間，讓年輕人意識(shí)到學(xué)習(xí)是他們整個(gè)一生都將參與的一場(chǎng)重要而激動(dòng)人心的冒險(xiǎn)。高等教育在我們的知識(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)中已經(jīng)是謀取體面工作的必備條件，它必須降低快速上升的成本，因?yàn)楦叱杀咀屖澜缟夏敲炊嗟哪贻p人都無緣優(yōu)質(zhì)教育。大規(guī)模網(wǎng)絡(luò)公開課和其他網(wǎng)絡(luò)教育、混合教育形式的出現(xiàn)，有望極大地?cái)U(kuò)展低成本優(yōu)質(zhì)教育在世界各地的惠及范圍。'It'snolongerpossibletothinkaboutthefutureassomethingfixedandpredictable,'writesMr.Flores.'Onthecontraryweunderstanditasthehorizonofpossibilitiesthatisbeingbuiltwithouractionstoday.Althoughthesumofthoseactionscanleadtounpredictableresults,thereponsibilityofpolit