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文檔簡(jiǎn)介
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
0.0%
0.0%
0.8%
-0.4%
0.7%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-1.8%
0.2%
0.9%
0.6%
1.2%
-1.8%
-0.3%
Country
Latest($bn)
Latest(%)
1Mchange
(%pts)
12Mchange
(%pts)
OwnershipsinceJan-21
China
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
SouthKorea
Thailand
Vietnam
295.9(Jun-23)
19.6(Jul-23)
56.7(Jul-23)
57.3(Jul-23)
3.4(Jul-23)
161.3(Jun-23)
25.9(Jun-23)
0.3(Mar-23)
8.2%(Jun-23)
1.8%(Jul-23)
15.6%(Jul-23)
24.2%(Jul-23)
1.9%(Jul-23)
21.4%(Jun-23)
12.1%(Jun-23)
0.4%(Mar-23)
0.0%
0.1%
EMAsiaLocalMarketFlows,PositioningandIssuance
MonthlyHighlights
ForeignFlows:Afterthedourstarttotheyear,foreigninflowsintoEMAsialocalbondmarketshavepickedupinrecentmonths,withYTDforeigninflowsnowstandingat+$8.0bn.SouthKoreahasbeenthestandoutintheregionthisyear.Foreignholdingsoflocalcurrencygovernmentbondsstandatarecordhighof21.4%ofoutstanding.
LocalCurrencyBondIssuance:Inaggregate,localcurrencybondissuanceacrosstheregionismarginallyaheadofpace.SouthKoreaandTaiwanleadthepack,with69%and65%ofourfullyearissuanceforecastalreadycompleted,respectively.
JPMEMClientSurvey:Inthismonth'ssurveywesawlimitedpositioningchangesamidheightenedmacronoise.InFX,investorsextendedshortsinCNYFXonweak2Qeconomicdata,pushingUWpositionstothelargestsinceNov-22.Whilstinrates,investorscutexposureinTWDandSGDrateswhileaddedinIDRratestotakeexposureonparwithKorearates.
EMAsiaLocalMarketsStrategy
sean.t.kelly@
J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc
SeanKelly(AC)(44-20)7134-7390
J.P.MorganChaseBank,N.A.,SingaporeBranchJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited
arindam.x.sandilya@tiffany.r.wang@
ArindamSandilya(65)6882-7759
TiffanyWang(852)2800-1726
10thAugust2023
ForeignFlowsintoLocalCurrencyGovernmentBondsSummary
USDbillion.Latestvalueisbasedonavailablemonthlydataandsubjecttorevisionfollowingreleaseofadditionaldata.
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
IndiaChinaIndonesia
ThailandMalaysiaPhilippines
SouthKorea EMAsiaTotal
Source:J.P.Morgan,MinistriesofFinance,CentralBanks.Notes:PhilippinesdatabasedonBoPdebtflows,China(CGB),India(IGB),Indonesia(INDOGB,INDOIS,INDORB),Malaysia(MGS,MGII),Philippines(RPGB),SouthKorea(KTB),andThailand(THAIGB).
ForeignOwnershipSummary
Foreignownershipoflocalcurrencygovernmentbondsas%ofamountoutstanding
LocalCurrencyGovernmentBondGrossIssuanceSummary
%ofJPMfullyearforecast.Reddotrepresentsthetotalissuancecompleteatthesamestageinthepriorcalendaryear.Areddothigherthanthecurrentlevel,meansauthoritiesarebelowlastyear'sequivalentissuancepace.
Source:J.P.Morgan,MinistriesofFinance,CentralBanks.Notes:PhilippinesandVietnamquarterlydata;otherslatestavailablemonthlydata:
China(CGB),India(IGB),Indonesia(INDOGB,INDOIS,INDORB),Malaysia(MGS,MGII),Philippines(RPGB),SouthKorea(KTB),Thailand(THAIGB),andVietnam(VIETGB).
Seepages22-24foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Source:
69%
65%
63%63%
60%
57%
55%
51%
37%
KRWTWDPHPMYRIDRSGDTHBCNYINR*
J.P.Morgan,MinistriesofFinance,CentralBanks.Notes:Indiaisforthe2023/24fiscalyear(Apr-Mar)
Page2
TableofContents
LocalCurrencyGovernmentBondIssuance,FlowsandOwnershipSummaryHistoricalGross&NetLocalCurrencyBondIssuanceTracking
ProxiedGovernmentCashBalances
LocalCurrencyGovernmentBondFlows
LocalCurrencyGovernmentBondOwnershipandPositioning
EMAsiaCountrySlides
China
India
Indonesia
SouthKorea
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Taiwan
Thailand
Disclosures
Page3-6
Page7
Page8
Page9-10
Page11-12
Page13-21
Page13
Page14
Page15
Page16
Page17
Page18
Page19
Page20
Page21
Page22-24
Page3
Source:J.P.Morgan,MinistriesofFinance,CentralBanks.Notes:*Indiaisforthe2023/24fiscalyear(Apr-Mar)
BasedonJPMforecastforgrosslocalcurrencygovernmentbondissuance
LocalCurrencyGovernmentBondIssuanceSummary
%completed(greenshade)ofJPMfullyearforecast;bothfullyearforecastandYTDareexpressedinlocalbnterms
Complete
Remaining
China
51%
Fullyearforecast:9800YTD:5033
SouthKorea
69%
Fullyearforecast:167800YTD:115600
Singapore
57%
Fullyearforecast:28YTD:16
India*
37%
Fullyearforecast:14800YTD:5440
Malaysia
63%
Fullyearforecast:185
YTD:116
Taiwan
65%
Fullyearforecast:480
YTD:313
Indonesia
60%
Fullyearforecast:780000
YTD:470730
Philippines
63%
Fullyearforecast:1700
YTD:1078
Thailand
55%
Fullyearforecast:1300
YTD:711
Page4
Source:J.P.Morgan,MinistriesofFinance,CentralBanks.
LocalCurrencyGovernmentBondFlowSummary
2023YTD,USDbillion.Basedonmonthlyflowdata.UsingaveragemonthlyFXrate(vsUSD).
Colourscale
SouthKorea
Malaysia
Indonesia
India
Philippines
Thailand
China
$14.8bn
$7.1bn
$6.1bn
$2.3bn
$-0.1bn
$-0.6bn
$-21.7bn
$15bn$10bn$5bn$0bn$-5bn$-10bn$-15bn
Page5
Source:J.P.Morgan,MinistriesofFinance,CentralBanks.Note:FundweightingsandGBI-EMweightsasofendJun-23
Country
IndexweightinGBI-EM
FundsassetallocationrelativetoGBI-EM
25thpercentileMedian75thpercentile
Brazil
SouthAfrica
MexicoColombiaIndonesiaCzechRepublicMalaysiaPoland
Thailand
China
10.0
8.4
10.0
4.6
10.0
5.4
10.0
7.5
10.0
10.0
-1.5
0.9
-0.7
-3.1
-1.1
-1.8
-3.7
-5.5
-4.7
-10.0
1.9
1.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
-1.3
-1.4
-2.9
-3.4
-5.5
2.4
3.4
3.0
1.9
0.7
0.4
-1.0
0.0
-2.6
-3.1
LocalCurrencyGovernmentBondOwnershipSummary
Foreignownershipoflocalcurrencygovernmentbonds(5yrange)
%ofamountoutstanding.Labelsrefertothelatestforeignownershipvalue
45%
5ymin/maxrangelatest
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
24.2%
21.4%
15.6%
12.1%
8.2%
1.8%
1.9%
04%
CNYINRIDRKRWMYRPHPTHBVND
(Jun-23)(Jul-23)(Jul-23)(Jun-23)(Jul-23)(Mar-23)(Jun-23)(Mar-23)
GBI-EMfundmanagersassetallocationrelativetobenchmark
%,fundassetallocationsbasedoffrespectivemonthlyfactsheets
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
LocalCurrencyGovernmentBondsOutstandingSummary
Outstandingstockoflocalcurrencygovernmentbonds
%ofregionaltotalandoutstandingstockinUSDbnterms.Regionaltotalbasedoncountrieslistedbelow
Weightedaveragematurityofoutstandinglocalcurrencygovernmentbonds
WATM(years)
CNY:(52.2%,USD3,559bn)
14Fulllocalcurrencygovernmentbondstock
INR:(17.0%,USD1,158bn)KRW:(11.3%,USD768bn)IDR:(5.2%,USD354bn)MYR:(3.4%,USD234bn)THB:(2.9%,USD201bn)TWD:(2.7%,USD185bn)PHP:(2.4%,USD165bn)SGD:(1.8%,USD120bn)
VND:(1.1%,USD72bn)
12.2
12.3
GBI-EMGD\GBI-AGGRemainingMaturity
11.5
10.5
9.6
9.3
9.0
7.9
7.6
5.8
KRWINRTHBVNDTWDMYRSGDIDRCNYPHP
Source:J.P.Morgan,BloombergFinanceL.P.Dataasof:09-Aug-23
Notes:China(CGB),India(IGB),Indonesia(INDOGB,INDOIS,INDORB),Malaysia(MGS,MGII),Philippines(RPGB),Singapore(SIGB),SouthKorea(KTB),
Taiwan(TGB),Thailand(THAIGB)andVietnam(VIETGB).ForWATM,KRWandSGDareproxiedusingtheGBI-AGG.NoJPMindexWATMdataexistsforINR,VNDandTWD.
Page6
Page7
Malaysia(includesbothconventionalandIslamicsecurities);Philippines(includesbothregularandspecialNGissuance).
HistoricalGross&NetLocalCurrencyBondIssuanceTracking
Gross&Netlocalcurrencygovernmentbondissuance
Localcurrencybn,grossandnetissuance.%completecomparesthisyear'sissuance/forecasttothesamereferenceperiodintheprioryear
20192020202120222023YTDJPMf
2023(vs2022)%YTDaverage
completemonthlypace
Requiredmonthly
paceforrestofMar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23
year
China
Gross
Net
3,756
1,638
6,908
4,121
6,676
2,350
9,632
2,662
5,033
1,512
9,800
-
51%(46%)
-
719
-
993
-
806
143
752
185
735
73
830
382
594
594
India*
Gross
Net
7,100
4,740
13,703
11,431
11,274
8,631
14,210
11,083
5,440
3,852
14,800
-
37%(37%)
-
1,360
-
1,195
-
260
260
1,050
644
1,360
309
1,670
1,538
1,360
1,360
Indonesia
Gross
Net
704,840
384,290
1,369,250
1,118,020
928,600
808,220
812,590
630,450
470,730
187,380
780,000
-
60%(57%)
-
67,247
-
64,431
-
95,000
59,440
48,240
40,610
48,130
-100,920
60,630
23,010
67,460
37,980
SouthKorea
Gross
Net
101,700
44,500
174,400
115,100
179,800
116,300
166,600
91,900
115,600
90,200
167,800
-
69%(71%)
-
16,514
-
10,875
-
17,700
-7,000
17,800
17,500
18,000
17,800
16,700
16,700
17,600
17,600
Malaysia
Gross
Net
116
47
152
75
164
86
172
97
116
55
185
-
63%(60%)
-
17
-
14
-
15
-7
17
4
15
2
16
16
18
5
Philippines
Gross
Net
697
359
1,529
1,104
2,083
1,630
2,073
1,424
1,078
516
1,700
-
63%(56%)
-
154
-
130
-
135
59
94
-57
100
99
125
95
108
108
Singapore
Gross
Net
25
9
26
12
30
13
27
12
16
-3
28
-
57%(62%)
-
2
-
3
-
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
-6
Taiwan
Gross
Net
410
-39
535
75
617
187
520
155
313
123
480
-
65%(62%)
-
45
-
35
-
60
-15
30
30
55
55
30
5
25
25
Thailand
Gross
Net
725
202
858
641
1,260
762
1,288
892
711
406
1,300
-
55%(58%)
-
102
-
123
-
114
64
114
114
129
65
88
-82
81
81
Source:J.P.Morgan,MinistriesofFinance,CentralBanks.Netissuancedefinedasgrossissuanceminusredemptions.ForIDRandPHPnetissuanceisproxiedbychangesinlocalcurrencydebtoutstanding.
Notes:*Indiadataisbasedonfiscalyears(Apr-Mar).India:doesnotincludeissuanceof364daybills;China(Treasurybondissuanceonly);Indonesia(IDRGDSissuanceincludesprivateplacements,retailissuance&t-bills);
Page8
Source:J.P.Morgan,MinistriesofFinance,CentralBanks.
-19%
-45%
28%
-24%
7%
37%
-41%
Country
Latest
3mma
%yoy
LevelsinceJan-21
CNY
INR
IDR
KRW
MYR
PHP
SGD
TWD
THB
3,687
1,784
710,396
5,683
9
899
62
590
345
4,263
1,353
703,893
4,057
8
1,052
49
452
273
-14%
-15%
EMAsiaProxiedGovernmentCashBalances
EMAsiagovernmentdepositsatthecentralbank
Localbn.CashbalancesproxiedbylevelofgovernmentdepositsatCentralBank
Cashbalancesas%ofcurrentyeargrossissuanceforecast
Cashbalancesas%JPMissuanceforecast.Comparedusingbothlatestand3mmalevelofcashbalances
250%
Latestcashlevel3mmacashlevel
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
SGDTWDIDRPHPCNYTHBINRMYRKRW
Page9
Source:J.P.Morgan,MinistriesofFinance,CentralBanks.Notes:*TotalEMAsiaLocalgovernmentbondflowsbasedon:Philippines(BoPdebtflows),China(CGB),India(IGB),
Indonesia(INDOGB,INDOIS,INDORB),Malaysia(MGS,MGII),Philippines(RPGB),SouthKorea(KTB),andThailand(THAIGB).
LocalCurrencyGovernmentBondFlows
ForeignflowsintoEMlocalcurrencybonds
USDbn,convertedusingmonthlyaverageFXrate.Basedonmonthlydata
USDbn
Bondtype
20182019202020212022
2023YTD
Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23
China
CGB
PolicyBankBond
NegotiableCertificatesofDeposit
75.1
30.0
89.4
83.4
-24.1
-
-
-
-
-52.2
50.1
67.3
-112.0
4.5
19.3
-21.7
-3.0
118.1
-1.7
-2.2
-13.3
-4.0
0.0
61.0
3.0
2.3
79.3
-
-
-
0.4
2.7
2.5
India
IGB(FAR)
IGB(other)
1.5
-2.5
2.1
-10.2
-
-
2.0
1.2
-3.8
-2.9
3.4
-1.2
0.4
-0.1
0.7
-0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.3
0.0
0.8
-0.3
Indonesia
INDOGB&INDORB
INDOIS
4.1
-0.1
-5.0
-0.7
-9.4
0.5
-5.7
-0.1
11.3
0.7
6.7
-0.5
0.9
0.0
0.4
-0.2
1.1
0.1
1.1
-0.6
0.6
-0.1
SouthKorea
KTB
7.810.019.337.122.8
14.8
-0.12.17.05.4-
Malaysia
MGS
MGII
3.3
0.9
3.0
4.7
4.3
1.3
-4.5
-0.7
-0.7
-1.0
4.7
2.4
1.0
0.5
-0.4
0.4
0.3
0.8
1.7
0.4
0.8
-0.2
Philippines
RPGB
1.2-0.2-0.90.40.7
-0.1
0.2-0.10.00.1-
Thailand
THAIGB
BOT
6.2
-1.7
-1.2
-1.2
3.0
1.3
0.8
0.1
-0.7
-1.4
-0.6
-0.6
0.6
-0.1
0.0
-0.8
-0.1
0.7
-
-
-0.5
-0.3
EMAsia:LocalCurrencyGovernmentBondFlows*
85.257.291.5130.8-11.3
8.0
-0.30.88.910.42.9
Page10
Source:J.P.Morgan,MinistriesofFinance,CentralBanks.Notes:PhilippinesdatabasedonBoPdebtflows,China(CGB),India(IGB),
Indonesia(INDOGB,INDOIS,INDORB),Malaysia(MGS,MGII),Philippines(RPGB),SouthKorea(KTB),andThailand(THAIGB).
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
LocalCurrencyGovernmentBondFlows
ForeignFlowsintoLocalCurrencyGovernmentBonds
USDbillion.Latestvalueisbasedonavailablemonthlydataandsubjecttorevisionfollowingreleaseofadditionaldata.
AnnualForeignFlowsintoLocalCurrencyGovernmentBonds
USDbillion.EMAsiacumulativeannualflows.Basedonlatestavailabledataofcountriesinadjacentchart
25
IndiaSouthKoreaPhilippines
China
Thailand EMAsiaTotal
IndonesiaMalaysia
201920202021
140
20222023
20
120
15
100
10
80
5
60
0
40
-5
20
-10
0
-15
-20
-20
-25
-40
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Source:J.P.Morgan,MinistriesofFinance,CentralBanks.Note:FullownershipbreakdowndataforKRWisreleasedwithasignificantlag.Page11
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
LocalCurrencyGovernmentBondOwnership
Ownershipbreakdownoflocalcurrencygovernmentbonds
%ofamountoutstanding.Labelsrefertothelatestownershipvalue
Foreigninvestors
CommercialBanksandFinancialIntermediariesInvestmentFunds
InsuranceandPensionFundsCentralBanks
HouseholdsandOthers
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
CNY(Jun-23)
INR(Mar-23)
IDR(Jul-23)
KRW(Dec-22)
MYR(Mar-23)
PHP(Mar-23)
THB(Jun-23)
VND(Mar-23)
EMAsiahistoricallocalcurrencygovernmentbondownership
Basedonweightedaveragedebtstockofindividualcountries.Samplebasedoncountriesinadjacentchart
ForeigninvestorsCentralBankOtherDomesticholders(RHS)
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
88%
87%
86%
85%
84%
83%
0%82%
Source:J.P.MorganEMClientSurvey.Asiaissimpleaverageof:CNY,HKD,INR,IDR,KRW,MYR,PHP,SGD,TWD,THB.Page12
Aug-18
Nov-18
Feb-19
May-19
Aug-19
Nov-19
Feb-20
May-20
Aug-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21
Nov-21
Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
Feb-23
May-23
Aug-18
Nov-18
Feb-19
May-19
Aug-19
Nov-19
Feb-20
May-20
Aug-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21
Nov-21
Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
Feb-23
May-23
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
NetshortFXvs.
J.P.MorganEMClientSurveyPositioning
JPMEMAsiaClientSurveyRatesandFXScores
Averageacrossregion.Positivenumberindicatesanoverweightposition
1.0
AverageAsiaFXscoreAverageAsiaratesscore
JPMClientSurveyFXscoresacrossEMAsia
Positivenumberindicatesanoverweightposition,negativenumberindicatesanunderweightposition
Latest
1mago
3mago
12mago
CNH
-3.6
-3.3
-3.1
-3.1
HKD
0.9
0.1
-4.1
-1.7
INR
1.7
0.7
0.8
-0.9
IDR
0.3
1.5
0.6
-0.8
KRW
-1.2
-1.1
-0.7
-1.5
MYR
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-1.1
PHP
-1.6
-1.9
-2.6
-2.5
SGD
-1.1
-1.5
-1.1
0.1
TWD
-2.7
-1.1
-2.0
-3.0
THB
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-2.5
Average
-0.7
-0.7
-1.3
-1.7
EMAsiaaverageFXHedgeRatio
PositivenumberindicatesnetlongFXvs.ratesexposure
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
ratesexposure
-2.0
JPMClientSurveyratesscoresacrossEMAsia
Positivenumberindicatesanoverweightposition,negativenumberindicatesanunderweightposition
Latest
1mago
3mago
12mago
CNH
-3.2
-3.1
-3.3
-0.5
HKD
-1.5
-1.6
-2.1
-2.6
INR
1.0
0.8
1.0
-0.8
IDR
2.6
2.1
1.8
0.4
KRW
2.6
2.5
1.5
-1.9
MYR
-1.3
-1.2
-1.7
-2.4
PHP
-1.6
-1.8
-2.2
-2.2
SGD
-2.3
-2.0
-2.1
-0.7
TWD
-0.7
0.3
-0.5
-2.0
THB
-4.1
-4.0
-3.5
-4.7
Average
-0.9
-0.8
-1.1
-1.7
Page13
Source:J.P.Morgan,MinistriesofFinance,CentralBanks.
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
Feb-19
May-19
Aug-19
Nov-19
Feb-20
May-20
Aug-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21
Nov-21
Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
Feb-23
May-23
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
May-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
May-22
Sep-22
Jan-23
May-23
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
China
ForeignFlowsintoLocalCurrencyGovernmentBonds
USDmn,usingaveragemonthlyFXrate(vsUSD)
25000
Monthlyforeignflows3mrollingaverage
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
-5000
-10000
-15000
JPMClientSurveyRatesandFXScores
Positivenumberindicatesanoverweightposition
4
CNYFX
CNYrates
ForeignOwnershipofLocalCurrencyGovernmentBonds
Leftaxis:%ofamountoutstanding;rightaxis:localbn
3000
%outstanding(LHS)localbn(RHS)
12%
10%
2500
8%
2000
6%
1500
4%
1000
2%
500
0
0%
GrossIssuanceofLocalCurrencyGovernmentBonds
Localbn
12000201920202021
2022
2023
Forecast
10000
Forecast2023:9800
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Page14
Source:J.P.Morgan,MinistriesofFinance,CentralBanks.
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
14
14
15
15
16
16
17
17
18
18
19
19
20
20
21
21
22
22
23
23
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
INRrates
INRFX
India
ForeignFlowsintoLocalCurrencyGovernmentBonds
USDmn,usingaveragemonthlyFXrate(vsUSD)
3000
2000
1000
0
-1000
-2000
-3000
-4000
-5000
-6000
-7000
-8000
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Monthlyforeignflows3mrollingaverage
JPMClientSurveyRatesandFXScores
Positivenumberindicatesanoverweightposition
-2
ForeignOwnershipofLocalCurrencyGovernmentBonds
Leftaxis:%ofamountoutstanding;rightaxis:localbn
6%3000
%outstanding(LHS)localbn(RHS)
5%
2500
4%
2000
3%
1500
2%
1000
1%
500
0%0
GrossIssuanceofLocalCurrencyGovernmentBonds
Localbn.FiscalyearApr-Mar
201920202021
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Forecast2023:14800
20222023Forecast
AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMar
Page15
Source:J.P.Morgan,MinistriesofFinance,CentralBanks.
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Jan-13
Aug-13
Mar-14
Oct-14
May-15
Dec-15
Jul-16
Feb-17
Sep-17
Apr-18
Nov-18
Jun-19
Jan-20
Aug-20
Mar-21
Oct-21
May-22
Dec-22
Jul-23
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
IDRrates
IDRFX
Indonesia
ForeignFlowsintoLocalCurrencyGovernmentBonds
USDmn,usingaveragemonthlyFXrate(vsUSD)
4000
Monthlyforeignflows3mrollingaverage
2000
0
-2000
-4000
-6000
-8000
-10000
JPMClientSurveyRatesandFXScores
Positivenumberindicatesanoverweightposition
-2
ForeignOwnershipofLocalCurrencyGovernmentBonds
Leftaxis:%ofamountoutstanding;rightaxis:localbn
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
%outstanding(LHS)localbn(RHS)
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
GrossIssuanceofLocalCurrencyGovernmentBonds
Localbn
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
201920202021 20222023Forecast
Forecast2023:780000
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Page16
Source:J.P.Morgan,MinistriesofFinance,CentralBanks.
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
13
13
14
14
15
15
16
17
17
18
18
19
20
20
21
21
22
22
23
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Jan
Aug
Mar
Oct
May
Dec
Jul
Feb
Sep
Apr
Nov
Jun
Jan
Aug
Mar
Oct
May
Dec
Jul
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
KRWrates
KRWFX
Forecast20192020
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
SouthKorea
ForeignFlowsintoLocalCurrencyGovernmentBonds
USDmn,usingaveragemonthlyFXrate(vsUSD)
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
-1000
-2000
-3000
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Monthlyforeignflows3mrollingaverage
JPMClientSurveyRatesandFXScores
Positivenumberindicatesanoverweightposition
-4
ForeignOwnershipofLocalCurrencyGovernmentBonds
Leftaxis:%ofamountoutstanding;rightaxis:localbn
25%250000
%outstanding(LHS)localbn(RHS)
20%
200000
15%
150000
10%
100000
5%
50000
0%0
GrossIssuanceofLocalCurrencyGovernmentBonds
Localbn
2021
Forecast2023:
20222023
167800
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Page17
Source:J.P.Morgan,MinistriesofFinance,CentralBanks.
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
MYRrates
MYRFX
150
100
50
0
Malaysia
ForeignFlowsintoLocalCurrencyGovernmentBonds
USDmn,usingaveragemonthlyFXrate(vsUSD)
3000
Monthlyforeignflows3mrollingaverage
2000
1000
0
-1000
-2000
-3000
-4000
JPMClientSurveyRatesandFXScores
Positivenumberindicatesanoverweightposition
ForeignOwnershipofLocalCurrencyGovernmentBonds
Leftaxis:%ofamountoutstanding;rightaxis:localbn
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jan-23
Jul-23
%outstanding(LHS)localbn(RHS)
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
GrossIssuanceofLocalCurrencyGovernmentBonds
Localbn
200
Forecast2023:185
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Page18
Source:J.P.Morgan,MinistriesofFinance,CentralBanks.
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan
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