輕工紡服-23H1總結(jié)：服飾穩(wěn)步向上家居已過低點出口將陸續(xù)改善

證券研究報告行業(yè)動態(tài)報告服飾穩(wěn)步向上，家居已過低點，出口將陸續(xù)改善分析師：葉樂yeleuangyangluhangshuyieizhongtai布日期：2023年9月4日本報告由中信建投證券股份有限公司在中華人民共和國(僅為本報告目的，不包括香港、澳門、臺灣)提供。在遵守適用的法律法規(guī)情況下，本報告亦可能由中信建投(國際)證券有限公司在香港提供。2QH居板塊估值，推薦業(yè)績兌現(xiàn)能力強的標的，優(yōu)選定制；2)家居出口：23Q2多數(shù)家居出口鏈企業(yè)呈現(xiàn)收22Q4開始普遍承壓，23H1壓力延續(xù)，預計Q3起出口逐漸改善。5)黃金珠寶及美護：金價上漲+疫情后度環(huán)比提升。3數(shù)增長，較23Q1(整體同比下滑)顯著改善，零售收入在前期訂單兌現(xiàn)催化下表現(xiàn)更優(yōu)；大宗業(yè)務(wù)分化，與績有望逐季改善。核心一二線城市需求端政策松動，有望促進房地產(chǎn)需求進一步釋放，家居相關(guān)標的短家居出口：部分品類去庫進度領(lǐng)先，美元升值增厚業(yè)績。22年以來，受前期海外庫存高位疊加通脹高企影響，下游去庫存沖擊我國家居出口鏈表現(xiàn)，整體而言，具備可選消費、非標屬性的品類較早進入去庫階段、去庫節(jié)奏較快(通常影響3-5個季度)，23Q2多數(shù)家居用品出口鏈企業(yè)呈現(xiàn)收入環(huán)比改善趨勢。利潤端：受益于美元升值、原材料成本下行，出口企業(yè)毛利率、凈利率有所回升，匯率變動對費用端的綜合影響取決于公司對匯率的判斷和鎖匯比例的控制。展望未來，隨著主動去庫進入尾聲、美出口需求有望企穩(wěn)回升。H大宗紙盈利能Q展和消費旺季即將來臨，紙價企穩(wěn)提升，疊加成本端改善的滯后性反映，預計紙企盈利修復PB較高配置性價比。4率達到29.7%，提升幅度超預期。②李寧23H1營收同增13%，其中跑步流水同增33%，在三大核心系列放量帶HH加快渠道下沉。②比音勒芬23H1公司營收16.84億元/+28.2%，凈利率提升。H1收購奢侈品牌CERRUTI1881和K&C，多品牌發(fā)展啟航。③海瀾之家23H1公司營收12.0億元/+17.7%，主品牌營收86.5億元/+16.7%，直營購物中心店占比持續(xù)提升。紡服制造：紡服制造板塊自22Q4開始普遍承壓，23H1壓力延續(xù)。外銷方面，22Q4開始海外品牌客戶普遍進入庫存去化階段，23H1外銷訂單仍持續(xù)疲軟，板塊內(nèi)以海外客戶為主公司營收及業(yè)績均有所承Q醫(yī)美下目錄CONTENTS第一章家居：23Q2營收溫和增長、業(yè)績表現(xiàn)更優(yōu)，預計23H2逐季向好第三章造紙：板塊整體承壓、業(yè)績底部確認，預計23H2逐步修復第五章紡服制造：H1受海外品牌去庫存等影響需求承壓，Q3有望環(huán)比改善醫(yī)美疫后業(yè)績反彈6040902071205100308010611040902072020-12051003080104090207120510040902071205100308010611040902072020-1205100308010409020712051003080106110409020712051003080111040902071205100308010611040902071205100310030801061104090207120510030801061104090200000000零售額:家具類:當月值零售額:家具類:當月同比000000家居賣場:累計值家居賣場:累計值數(shù)據(jù)來源：國家統(tǒng)計局，Wind，中信建投23Q2營收呈現(xiàn)溫和同比增長，環(huán)比修復明顯7端，疊加消費力弱修復態(tài)勢下，整體家居零售訂單轉(zhuǎn)化時間周期略有拉長(如定制+軟體一體化下)，圖表：主要家居公司營收及業(yè)績變化情況單位(億元)2023Q22023Q1板塊代碼公司yoy歸母凈利潤yoyyoy歸母凈利潤yoy6603833.SH歐派家居61762.7313.0%9.8028.1%35.70-13.8%1.52-39.8%002002572.SZ索菲亞229.395.6%3.9532.9%18.05-9.7%1.04-8.9%定制家居603801.SH志邦家居314.9517.1%1.2820.0%8.066.2%0.520.5%6603180.SH金牌廚柜459.328.0%0.44-29.9%5.751.1%0.338.2%6603208.SH江山歐派19.1917.9%0.8336.3%6.8239.0%0.595.6%6603816.SH顧家家居35449.2410.0%5.2316.9%39.54-12.9%4.00-9.7%軟體家居603008.SH喜臨門223.376.2%1.61-3.1%14.674.5%0.6214.3%0001323.SZ慕思股份14.42-4.3%2.5438.0%9.57-23.1%1.01-18.4%0001322.SZ箭牌家居523.246.7%1.68-20.8%11.10-1.7%0.03-88.1%智能品類603848.SH好太太64.4216.7%1.0274.7%2.7613.3%0.486.6%0002790.SZ瑞爾特5.7817.0%0.7457.0%3.96-2.8%0.408.7%跨境電商301376.SZ致歐科技713.76-0.4%0.9967.2%12.67-11.2%0.8769.9%數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信建投，市值截止0901 23Q123Q223Q1yoy2323Q123Q223Q1yoy23Q2yoy金材料材料:銅材材料:鋁材 93.418,049.215,566.1 21.498.934.5 .9%28.84.10-89.1%3.1%?23Q2大部分家居公司毛利率和凈利率均實升，主要得益于原材料成本下行以及于原材料成本逐步下降(如軟體的MDI、值)，家居圖表：主要家居公司盈利能力變化情況圖表：部分家居品類指標變化情況單單位(億元)2023Q22023Q1板塊代碼公司毛利率比(PCT)凈利率同比(PCT)毛利率同比(PCT)凈利率比(PCT)603833.SH歐派家居59634.3%0.315.6%26.7%-1.04.2%-1.9002572.SZ索菲亞17435.7%3.313.9%2.833.3%5.8%0.1定制家居603801.SH志邦家居10836.8%-0.28.5%0.236.9%6.4%-0.4603180.SH金牌廚柜4327.8%-0.54.6%-2.529.1%-0.85.5%0.4603208.SH江山歐派6624.9%-6.28.9%21.7%-3.28.2%-2.8603816.SH顧家家居34231.0%2.910.6%0.232.1%2.310.2%0.1軟體家居603008.SH喜臨門8037.0%3.47.0%-0.932.4%-1.94.3%-0.1001323.SZ慕思股份14852.2%317.6%548.4%3.410.6%0.6001322.SZ箭牌家居15329.0%-5.37.2%-2.530.4%-5.50.2%-2.1智能品類603848.SH好太太6651.4%6.823.0%7.745.7%2.417.5%-1.1002790.SZ瑞爾特5129.7%4.112.6%3.325.2%0.39.9%跨境電商301376.SZ致歐科技10436.0%4.47.2%2.936.8%46.9%3.3數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信建投，市值截止2023年08月31日9較23Q1(整體同比下滑)顯著改善，主要系：1)零售渠道在訂單兌現(xiàn)下逐步恢復；2)大宗業(yè)務(wù)分家居公司戰(zhàn)略和客戶結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整有關(guān)。其擴品類和開店的志邦家居收入增速最優(yōu)。較23Q1(整體同比下滑)顯著改善，主要系：1)零售渠道在訂單兌現(xiàn)下逐步恢復；2)大宗業(yè)務(wù)分家居公司戰(zhàn)略和客戶結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整有關(guān)。其擴品類和開店的志邦家居收入增速最優(yōu)。Q控費提效作用下，各家利潤率差異主要與渠道結(jié)構(gòu)相關(guān)，其中大宗)低毛利率的大宗業(yè)務(wù)占比下降，2)原材料下降+降本增效。圖表：主要定制家居公司營收增速拆分(分品類)各品類23Q2營收(億元)62.7334.5419.873.6913.1%19.2%2.2%14.6%25.7%.5%2.3%圖表：主要定制家居公司23Q2單季度營收同比增速拆分(分渠道)?圖表：主要定制家居公司23Q2單季度營收同比增速拆分(分渠道)Q營收9yoy23Q2扣非歸母凈利潤yoy6.0%44.5%8.1%23Q2營收拆分(分渠道)023Q2營收增速(分渠道).34%16%29.16%98%%23Q2各渠道貢獻營收增量35%.61%.95%10%6.66%.04%.91%1%23Q2渠道營收占比3.1%9.8%28.5%數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信建投 數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信建投數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信建投到23Q1和22Q4趨勢逐步向好，預計23H1外銷營收40%30%0%0%-20%-30%顧家家居內(nèi)外貿(mào)營收增速營收增速內(nèi)貿(mào)營收增速外貿(mào)營收增速22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2房地產(chǎn)銷售、投資、土地數(shù)據(jù)當月同比(%)7654322022-122022-112022-10987652022-04-49.0住宅-51.8-52.870個大中城市新建商品住宅價格指數(shù)-0.170個大中城市新建商品住宅價格指數(shù):一線城市70個大中城市新建商品住宅價格指數(shù):二線城市70個大中城市新建商品住宅價格指數(shù):三線城市-1.5銷售均價(元/平米)9,864房屋新開工面積-45.0房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資-18.8房地產(chǎn)竣工面積-17.0房地產(chǎn)竣工面積：住宅-14.8交建面-26.9土地成交總價：一線城市-75.4土地成交總價：二線城市27.9土地成交總價：三線城市-68.6資數(shù)據(jù)累計同比增速房地產(chǎn)銷售、新開工及投資數(shù)據(jù)累計同022-12022-11022-102022-04-20.9-25.4-29.5面積投資-26.32.7面積住宅-11.9-11.4數(shù)據(jù)來源：國家統(tǒng)計局，wind，中信建投0.0%、同比-31.8%(較上月回升5.6個百分點)33城新房月度成交面積(萬平米)一線城市(4城)新房月度成交面積(萬平米)2018201920202021202220232018201920202021202220230001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月二線城市(12城)新房月度成交面積(萬平米)2018201920202021202220231月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月00001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月三線城市(17城)新房月度成交面積(萬平米)2018201920202021202220231月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月 注：33個城市中，一線城市(4)：北京、上海、廣州、深圳，二線城市(12)：濟南、青島、杭州、蘇州、南京、武漢、南寧、福州、成都、寧波、 000000016城二手房月度成交面積(萬平米)2018201920202021202220231月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月二線城市(8城)二手房月度成交面積(萬平米)2018201920202021202220231月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月000一線城市(2城)二手房月度成交面積(萬平米)2018201920202021202220233月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月三線城市(6城)二手房月度成交面積(萬平米)201920202021202220231月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信建投 注：一線城市(2)：北京、深圳，二線城市(8)：大連、杭州、青島、廈門、蘇州、南寧、成都、南京，三線城市(6)：衢州、江門、宿 ?地產(chǎn)政策利好持續(xù)釋放(優(yōu)化首付比、存量房貸利率下降等)，有望提振居民消費信心，帶動家居板塊工面積累計同比增長20%，竣工改善傳導至家居零售消費若干月時間，疊加去年下半年基數(shù)走低，HQQ大宗訂單同比在雙位數(shù)增長；3)外游客戶去庫基本結(jié)束，23Q1訂單開始轉(zhuǎn)正，預計傳導至下半年海外收入有望恢復正增長。 (億元)PE(中信建投)業(yè)績預測(中信建投)2Q22Q4Q222Q232Q22Q4Q222Q233E4E5E3E4E5E61725.6%13.2%18213.5%9.6%11311.2%4.1%4517.2%2.4%713.5%-16.4%7.1%4.8%2.8%-13.8%13.0%25.6%13.2%4.0%-9.7%5.6%13.5%9.6%2.3%6.2%17.1%11.2%4.1%-13.3%1.1%8.0%17.2%2.4%14.5%39.0%17.9%3.5%-16.4%7.1%4.8%2.8%-13.8%13.0%4.0%-9.7%5.6%2.3%6.2%17.1%-13.3%1.1%8.0%14.5%39.0%17.9%6.3.SZ0%-12.9%0%-12.9%10.0%.8%-24.9%-23.1%.8%-24.9%-23.1%12.4%18.5%10.3%-23.1%4.5%6.2%12.4%18.5%10.3%-23.1%4.5%6.2%.SZ智能001322.SZ箭牌家居1550.0%-3.2%-14.0%-18.5%-1.7%6.7%0.0%-3.2%-14.0%-18.5%-1.7%6.7%品類002790.SZ瑞爾特5322.5%4.8%-4.1%2.6%-2.8%17.0%22.5%4.8%-4.1%2.6%-2.8%17.0%301376.SZ致歐科技1070.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-11.2%-0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-11.2%-0.4%3.914.835.81數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信建投，市值截止2023年9月1日志邦志邦家居23Q2營運情況：衣柜木門業(yè)務(wù)體量持續(xù)增長，全渠道業(yè)務(wù)協(xié)同發(fā)力。23H1衣柜保持雙位數(shù)以上穩(wěn)健增長，整裝渠道保持高增態(tài)勢(營收占比約10%)。年，Z7計劃(廚衣木成品融合)有望帶動客單值提升，整裝渠道加共同驅(qū)動公司增長。公司發(fā)布限制性股票激勵計劃，強化核營收(百萬元)201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E整體2,452.82,977.93,840.452.888.83.9,224.58,204.2按品類拆分①整體廚柜②整體衣柜及配套品③定制木門1,928.22,117.12,498.62,934.22,736.62,981.33,264.23,521.1430.0734.4.82,102.72,504.4958.03,427.17.827.643.4169.8227.9370.2458.9549.5按渠道拆分①經(jīng)銷1,704.432,229.82,829.62,899.83,530.44,117.8,726.9店均提貨額(萬元/家，按照平均門店計算)76.575.4100.083.3289.073.9346.866.472.775.7其中整裝：②大宗390.8639.5.5333020.02,158.1③直營156.7182.2231.9322.4396.6468.4535.9604.9營收占比201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E按品類拆分①整體廚柜78.6%71.1%65.1%56.9%50.8%47.5%45.2%42.9%②整體衣柜及配套品17.5%24.7%29.7%34.2%39.0%39.9%40.9%41.8%③定制木門0.3%0.9%1.1%3.3%4.2%5.9%6.4%6.7%按渠道拆分①經(jīng)銷69.5%65.5%58.1%54.9%53.8%56.3%57.0%57.6%整裝15.9%21.5%30.6%32.0%%30.8%29.5%28.0%26.3%②大宗③直營6.4%6.1%6.0%6.3%7.4%7.5%7.4%7.4%營收增速201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E整體21.4%29.0%34.2%4.6%16.4%15.2%13.6%按品類拆分①整體廚柜9.8%18.0%17.4%-6.7%8.9%9.5%7.9%②整體衣柜及配套品70.8%55.3%54.2%19.5%③定制木門254.7%57.0%291.6%34.2%62.5%24.0%19.7%按渠道拆分①經(jīng)銷14.4%14.4%26.9%2.5%21.7%16.6%14.8%店均提貨額增速-1.4%10.4%-11.2%-20.3%9.5%4.2%平均門店增速16.0%14.9%15.5%30.2%9.1%6.2%②大宗63.6%83.7%40.6%0.4%12.1%9.2%6.8%③直營16.2%27.3%39.0%23.0%18.1%14.4%12.9%數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信建投歐派家居23歐派家居23Q2運營情況：得益于公司降本控費下費用率下行以及毛利率略有提升。23Q2零售、大宗渠道均提速增長，整裝大家居持續(xù)推進(23H1增長20%+、營收木門及衛(wèi)浴快速增長。提升客單值；2)量層面：渠道紅利將盡，公司積局家裝渠道，家裝高增帶動市占率提升。營業(yè)收入(百萬元)21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2①整體廚柜1,2591,9452,1902,1341,3241,9442,1821,7231,0851,987②整體衣柜及配套品1,6762,3733,2863,0552,3202,8983,4893,4321,9763,454整體衣柜1,3521,7532,6312,4351,8622,1512,6572,7401,4762,794配套品3246196566205007068321,000535752③定制木門165292381399218322397410207369④衛(wèi)浴165247281296167242314312184276營收占比(按照產(chǎn)品類別)21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2①整體廚柜38.2%39.7%36.3%35.3%31.9%35.0%34.6%26.6%30.4%31.7%②整體衣柜及配套品50.8%48.4%54.4%50.6%56.0%52.2%55.3%53.0%55.4%55.1%整體衣柜41.0%35.8%43.6%40.3%44.9%38.8%42.1%42.3%41.3%44.5%配套品9.8%12.6%10.9%10.3%12.1%12.7%13.2%15.4%15.0%12.0%③定制木門5.0%6.0%6.3%6.6%5.3%5.8%6.3%6.3%5.8%5.9%④衛(wèi)浴5.0%5.0%4.7%4.9%4.0%4.4%5.0%4.8%5.2%4.4%營收增速(按照產(chǎn)品類別)21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2①整體廚柜96.2%25.9%12.7%10.5%5.1%-0.1%-0.4%-19.3%-18.0%2.2%②整體衣柜及配套品173.0%46.5%43.8%26.4%38.4%22.1%6.2%12.3%-14.8%19.2%整體衣柜173.5%27.6%35.4%24.2%37.7%22.7%1.0%12.5%-20.7%29.9%配套品171.0%152.0%91.6%35.9%54.4%14.0%26.9%61.3%7.1%6.5%③定制木門155.3%71.7%51.7%39.8%32.3%10.2%4.2%2.6%-4.9%14.5%④衛(wèi)浴96.1%45.3%13.6%24.5%1.2%-1.9%11.5%5.4%10.5%14.1%營收增速拆分21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2整體營收3.2%①直營②經(jīng)銷(含整裝大家居)201.6%51.4%30.3%33.8%51.1%25.9%13.9%10.5%-27.5%36.5%174.1%39.3%28.8%21.2%34.1%19.9%5.4%1.2%-14.5%9.2%③大宗89.7%30.5%33.1%21.9%-7.0%-19.5%1.6%2.3%-13.0%29.2%體3,3004,9016,0406,0404,1445,5496,3096,4773,5706,273直營8111417122112314419524489196經(jīng)銷(含整裝大家居)2,4033,8224,8754,5803,2234,5845,1414,6352,7565,003其中：整裝大家居235460500700400642738794447826經(jīng)銷門店7,1437,2577,4617,4757,3987,7607,6857,6157,5837,532店均提貨額(萬元/家)33.753.266.962.843.360.267.861.436.666.77238651,0461,0386736961,0631,063585899營收占比21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2直營2.5%2.3%2.8%3.7%3.0%2.6%3.1%3.8%2.5%3.1%銷72.8%78.0%80.7%75.8%77.8%82.6%81.5%71.6%77.2%79.8%其中整裝大家居7.1%9.4%8.3%11.6%9.7%11.6%11.7%12.3%12.5%13.2%21.9%17.6%17.3%17.2%16.2%12.5%16.8%16.4%16.4%14.3%數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信建投顧家顧家家居23Q2運營情況：業(yè)務(wù)訂單逐步向好，預計增速若剔除璽堡業(yè)務(wù)剝離影響，預計Q2外銷收入同比持平。H功能沙發(fā)、床墊以及定制三大高潛品類仍是增長主要驅(qū)落、海外工廠效率提升疊加內(nèi)銷收入占比提升，公司利潤率有所提升。核心邏輯：展望23年下半年，一體兩翼內(nèi)貿(mào)新戰(zhàn)略、強化家裝渠道合作驅(qū)動內(nèi)貿(mào)未來增長；伴隨著外貿(mào)業(yè)務(wù)復蘇以及公司加強降本增效，有望帶動外貿(mào)利潤率提升。盈利預測：預計2023-2025年營+13.5%，預計歸母凈利潤為2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E營業(yè)收入(億元)66.791.7110.9126.7183.4180.1207.7236.8268.8①內(nèi)銷40.452.161.076.5107.1103.0132.2153.4176.6物理店口徑下：門店3,5004,2224,8305,1905,2475,601-3,8614,5265,0105,2195,424店均提貨額(萬元/家)134.9134.7152.7205.3190.0其中：大店+綜合店1,0281,9902,073店占比門店---7,2498,5639,423-----7,9068,993店均提貨額(萬元/家)259.6211.2②外銷22.335.046.146.569.270.375.52023E83.42024E92.22025E營收占比201720182019202020212022①內(nèi)銷60.6%56.8%55.0%60.4%58.4%57.2%63.7%64.8%65.7%②外銷33.5%38.2%41.5%36.7%37.7%39.1%36.3%2023E35.2%2024E34.3%2025E營收增速拆分整體營收2017201837.6%201920.9%20204.2%202144.8%2022-1.8%5.3%4.0%3.5%①內(nèi)銷29.1%7.0%25.5%40.0%-3.8%28.3%6.0%5.1%平均物理店增長7.2%0.7%4.2%3.9%店均提貨額增長-0.2%3.3%34.5%-7.5%②外銷②外銷毛利率56.7%31.7%0%48.7%7%7.3%2023E0.5%2024E0.6%2025E201737.3%201836.4%201934.9%202035.2%202128.9%202230.8%30.67%30.60%30.52%①內(nèi)銷42.4%42.9%39.9%40.1%34.5%37.3%②外銷24.0%23.6%24.8%24.2%8.1%20.8%毛利占比2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E①內(nèi)銷2%②外銷21.6%24.8%29.6%25.3%23.7%26.3%數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信建投平均門店索菲亞定制家具司米廚柜索菲亞木門華鶴米蘭納進平均門店索菲亞定制家具司米廚柜索菲亞木門華鶴米蘭納率亮眼，主要得益于原材料成本壓力緩解疊加SKU優(yōu)化成效顯現(xiàn)，23Q2毛利率、凈利率為增長85.2%。分品牌，23H1下沉品牌米蘭納快速增長、索菲亞主品牌客單價穩(wěn)步提升；23Q2零售渠道逐步恢復、整裝渠道延續(xù)高增。核心邏輯：展望2023年，索菲亞品牌整家定制模式推動客單價持續(xù)提升、米蘭納品牌下沉藍海市場，整裝渠道繼續(xù)拓展，同時原材料下降有望驅(qū)動盈利彈性釋放。營營業(yè)收入(億元)營收201761.61201873.11201976.86202083.532021104.072022112.232023E120.672024E136.522025E152.61①直營2.202.332.632.503.422.772.632.712.79②經(jīng)銷(含整裝)55.7864.1264.1165.3283.6092.2589.34100.07111.26經(jīng)銷門店2,4553,7103,7364,4094,8634,1003,9004,2504,600平均門店店均提貨額(萬元/家)3,083208.013,723172.194,073160.394,636180.344,482205.844,000223.344,075245.574,425251.43其中整裝0.745.2911.3816.6323.0029.25③大宗2.815.819.3515.0416.0415.2513.7313.7313.73營收占比2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E①直營②經(jīng)銷3.6%905%3.2%877%3.4%834%3.0%78.2%3.3%80.3%2.5%82.2%2.2%74.0%2.0%73.3%1.8%72.9%其中整裝0.9%5.1%10.1%13.8%16.8%19.2%③大宗4.6%7.9%12.2%18.0%15.4%13.6%11.4%10.1%9.0%門店(家)2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E經(jīng)銷2,4553,7103,7364,4094,8634,1003,9004,2504,6002,200-95160-3,0833,7234,0734,6364,4824,0004,0754,4252,6002,5012,7192,7302,8292,750,8002,8508228451,1081,122614128227339534160163243265319---212338營收增速拆分2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E整體營收①①直營②經(jīng)銷(含整裝)其中整裝門店增長店均提貨額增長③大宗18.7%6.0%14.9%106.9%5.1%12.7%0.0%20.8%-17.2%61.0%8.7%-4.8%1.9%9.4%-6.9%60.8%24.6%36.7%28.0%613.2%13.8%12.4%6.7%7.8%-19.1%10.3%115.1%-3.3%14.1%-4.9%7.5%-5.0%-3.2%46.2%-10.7%8.5%-10.0%13.1%3.0%12.0%38.3%1.9%10.0%0.0%11.8% 3.0%11.2%27.2% 8.6% 2.4%0.0%數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信建投①經(jīng)銷渠道②大宗渠道理商①經(jīng)銷渠道②大宗渠道理商江山歐派23Q2運營情況：23Q2營收穩(wěn)健增長17.9%、歸母凈利潤同增36.33%，主要得益于費用Q、33.3%，主要系工程結(jié)構(gòu)持續(xù)優(yōu)化，保交樓貢獻訂單增量，且經(jīng)銷渠道毛利率穩(wěn)步回升中。核心邏輯：展望2023年，保交樓訂單有望逐步推進；預計公司將維持100家/年代理商拓展節(jié)奏、經(jīng)銷商擴張保持800家/月，代理商和經(jīng)銷渠道有望繼續(xù)高增。毛利率Q1有所承壓，全年有望改善。2022025E2023E2024E201920172018202020212022營業(yè)收入(億元)10.1012.8320.2730.1231.5732.0940.8449.3156.75①經(jīng)銷渠道2.192.476.938.7610.6813.3516.02②大宗渠道16.8426.0722.1821.8128.4934.1238.71工程22.0916.3111.9115.4917.0318.40代理商2.875.049.0912.0716.0119.08營收占比營收占比2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E①經(jīng)銷渠道7.3%27.1%28.2%②大宗渠道%68.2%.1%%32.4%%8.3%9.6%%33.6%營收增速拆分2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E27.1%.6%4.8%%.6%26.4% -1.7%-27.0%80.5%27.3%20.7%15.1%21.9%25.0%20.0%306%198%135%30.0%10.0%8.0%32.8%32.7%19.2%毛利率2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E整體32.7%32.2%32.2%29.1%23.9%23.8%劃分①經(jīng)銷商24.2%21.8%21.8%24.0%②大宗渠道33.6%32.3%23.5%22.7%工程渠道35.2%35.2%28.6%26.0%代理渠道25.7%25.3%16.8%18.5%數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信建投20營收(億元)營業(yè)收入(億元)201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E44.5223.9611.724.314.1958.1360.6170.0380.9827.28營收(億元)營業(yè)收入(億元)201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E44.5223.9611.724.314.1958.1360.6170.0380.9827.2828.8832.8737.4317.1018.1920.7123.58513.864.826.039.699.6911.6213.95.81.19.93.6222.51.64.12.88.282.96.02其他(沙發(fā)、按摩椅)店均提貨額(萬元/家201820192020202120222025E2023E2024E營收增速拆分201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E 201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E49.1%53.5%49.3%45.0%46.5%49.7%49.7%49.6%42.7%46.4%45.9%41.6%45.7%46.5%46.5%46.5%74.9%78.3%75.9%73.9%74.7%78.0%78.0%78.0%59.5%51.8%32.6%27.0%31.0%31.0%31.0%31.0%69.0%69.0%61.6%58.9%57.3%62.0%62.0%62.0%201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E3,4034,7555,50014110897145100%8.3%9.7%25.2%.2%44.4%44.6%29.6%%8.7%9.7%%9.8%5.1%0.0%%42.3%38.1%慕思股份23Q2運營情況：公司23Q2營收同比-4.33%，主要受終端需求疲軟以及終止直供歐派蘇斯品牌業(yè)務(wù)影響，剔除歐派影響預計同比雙位數(shù)增長；23Q2歸母凈利潤+38.0%，得益于低毛利直供業(yè)務(wù)下降、原材料價格同比下降以及精減低效產(chǎn)品帶來的毛利率顯著提升。公司3月發(fā)布床墊世紀夢新產(chǎn)品，套系化銷售占比持續(xù)提升(預計達30%)；渠道端V6大家居提速，23H1電商渠道增長26.7%。核心邏輯：展望2023年下半年，渠道變革成效有望逐步顯現(xiàn)，上千家門店重裝升級；公司套餐銷售力度持續(xù)推廣，有望進一步提升客單值。。201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E.88 .2123.990.81.318.6244.5264.844.502.982927.0330.5144.4738.9109.0275.88.866.607.814.36.068.187.98201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E億元V6家居直營10.1%12.5%7.7%6.9%5.1%4.3%億元V6家居%%%%%%%%其他(沙發(fā)、按摩椅)%%直供2.5%4.3%8.7%10.2%13.4%1.9%1.9%1.9% 電商10.4%11.3%13.6%12.6%13.7%16.5%17.1%17.7%營收增速拆分201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E整體21.2%15.3%45.6%-10.3%4.3%15.5%15.6%直營50.5%-28.8%30.8%-33.9%-11.8%10.0%10.0%經(jīng)銷12.7%12.9%45.8%-12.5%19.0%14.8%14.5%其他(沙發(fā)、 按摩椅)%%其他(沙發(fā)、 按摩椅)%%%%6.4% 5.8%6.4%%%%%%%%%直供103.3%135.2%70.9%18.3%-85.0%15.0%15.0%.......315%391%351%-2.......201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E毛利率49.1%53.5%49.3%45.0%46.5%49.7%49.7%49.6%門店(家門店(家)按摩椅)21要受公司全渠道全線產(chǎn)品促銷影響帶來的均價下行，23Q2毛利率29.0%/-5.3pct、凈利率7.2%/-pctH億元/+13.84%，數(shù)量同比+37.15%，促銷疊加輕智能產(chǎn)品占比提售渠道承壓明顯。核心邏輯：展望23H2，預計拓寬輕智能產(chǎn)品價格帶助力零售渠道恢復，降本控費+促銷策略優(yōu)化有望帶來利潤率環(huán)比改善。長期來看，國產(chǎn)品牌有望借力智能馬桶等新品類，憑借價格優(yōu)勢以及設(shè)計提升來實現(xiàn)市場份額提升。20192020202120222022E2023E2024E20192020202120222022E2023E2024E6.58 6.58 5.028.854.357.206 5.13 0 3 8.73 7.233.850.10 0.108 0.12 9.740.14 2.570.15 2023E2021%2023E2021%%%%%%2021%%%%%2022E2024E20202019202220192020202120222022E2023E2024E28.8%-10.3%15.2%14.1%28.8%-10.3%15.2%14.1%13.0%-10.7% 10.9%32.1% -22.7%-10.3%15.2%14.1%-6.0%17.7%16.8%-4.4%23.5%21.3%-1.5%30.5%27.4%-8.0%12.8%10.4%-8.1%20.7%15.2%-7.7%30.0%20.0%-12.6%18.0%15.0%-18.0%10.0%8.0%-26.2%10.0%15.0%13.0%16.1%19.8%25.4%10.3%14.5%20.0%10.0%5.0%15.0% 10.2%0.0%20.0%40.0%15.0%5.0%40.0% 10.2%0.0%20.0%40.0%15.0%5.0%40.0%5.5%0.0%18.0%25.0%10.0%5.0%30.0%7.5%0.0%18.0%30.0%10.0%5.0%35.0%5.4%2020%%%%%2019%%%%%20222022E20222022E2023E2024E32.6%30.1%30.4%30.8%30.5%30.7%31.2%28.0%28.5%29.0%29.0%29.0%29.0%%28.0%28.0%28.0%40.8%37.0%37.0%37.0%數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信建投22-20.0%50%20%10%增-20.0%50%20%10%2024E62022E23.522020201920222023E28.1920212024E62022E23.522020201920222023E28.1920210yoyyoyyoyyoy占比yo0yoyyoyyoyyoy占比yoy占比yoyyoyyoyyoyyoyyoyyoy.892.927222.9525.8%.89.7790.0%5310.0%3636快增長，其中自主品牌智能馬桶高增，預計23H1營收智能馬桶代工0.030%5%5%45.4%0.030%5%5%45.4%54.6%350.002.404333.9%66.1%.00.065170.4%2.0688.3%29.6%902827.2%72.8%5056線下渠道(包括工程)線下渠道(包括工程)坐便器產(chǎn)品收入占比提升，0.621.973.554.9680%40%0.621.973.554.9680%40%7.5% 202223.6%23.6%2023E29.9%.2%2022E27.8%28.9%2.399220202.062024E.4%.6%2.19年，看好智能坐便器滲透率提升下自主品牌加速放量，代工業(yè)務(wù)有望穩(wěn)定增長。.4% 2021.4% 2021毛利率(%)201924.4%毛利率(%)201924.4%25.8%25.8%數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信建投店均提貨額增長6%20%5%0%0%25%5%0%12%22%8%0%34%0%7%店均提貨額增長6%20%5%0%0%25%5%0%12%22%8%0%34%0%7%35%12%36%63%-26%②自主品牌工程39%0%9%-2%③代加工4%19%8%喜臨門23Q2營運情況：23Q2營增長(其中線上渠道20%+增速、線下持平)、代工業(yè)務(wù)20%+增核心邏輯：預計公司有望受益于促進家居消費政策期、期待終端需求逐步回暖以及降本增效推進下帶來盈利能力提升。投資建議：預計公司2023-2025年21.4%、17.5%。201948.7124.3018.32201948.7124.3018.323,0002,69468.04.965.0018.20202056.2331.3624.123,6433,32272.66.734.3017.802023E86.6857.1153.005,6535,46397.013.734.9421.28202177.7251.7439.564,4954,06997.210.984.7021.282024E100.3467.9863.505,853108.516.745.3321.28202278.3952.0036.135,2734,93197.714.783.5023.00營業(yè)收入(億元)①自主品牌零售6,0536,4531營業(yè)收入(億元)①自主品牌零售6,0536,453經(jīng)銷門店平均門店店均提貨額(萬元/家)經(jīng)銷門店平均門店店均提貨額(萬元/家)②自主品牌工程③代加工20.09②自主品牌工程③代加工21.28營營收占比2025E2023E2024E2019202020212022①自主品牌零售線下占比線上占比②自主品牌工程③代加工49.9%①自主品牌零售線下占比線上占比②自主品牌工程③代加工49.9%37.6%10.2%10.3%37.4%55.8%42.9%12.0% 7.6%31.7%66.3%46.1%18.9% 4.5%29.3%65.9%61.1%15.8% 5.7%24.5%67.8%63.3%16.7% 5.3%21.2%69.2%63.7%17.8% 5.0%18.8%50.9%14.1%6.0%27.4%營收增速20192020202120222023E2024E2025E整體①自主品牌零售16%20%25%15%29%32%38%65%64%%%-9%11%10%11%16%19%19%13%15%13%平均門店增長23.32%22.50%21.18%11%7%7%門門店(家)2025E2023E2024E2019202020212022整體3,0003,6434,4955,2735,6536,0536,453喜臨門專賣店2,5483,1403,8994,7025,1025,5025,902喜臨門主品牌2,1682,3402,8373,2803,4803,6803,880喜眠3808001,0621,4221,6221,8222,022MD專賣店(含夏圖)4525035965715515515512025E202217%21%2025E202217%21%16%34%-4%2024E7%8%6%12%0%2023E7%9%6%14%-4%202021%23%8%111%11%201926%26%7%202123%24%21%33%18%整體喜臨門專賣店 23整體喜臨門專賣店 23喜臨門主品牌喜眠MD專喜臨門主品牌喜眠MD專賣店(含夏圖)23%0% 24yoyyoyyoy-16.4%13.9%21.2%19.2%-16.0%8.9%16.2%18.3%yoyyoyyoy-16.4%13.9%21