世界鉑金投資協(xié)會(huì)：今年鉑金將出現(xiàn)史上最大供應(yīng)缺口（英）

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PRESSRELEASE

London,05.006September2023

Platinumdeficitforecastfor2023nowover1millionounces

onstrongautomotiveandindustrialdemandgrowthandflat

supply

.Totaldemandexpectedtoincrease27%in2023,whiletotalsupplywillbeflat

.Automotiverecoverywillsee2023demandup13%(+381koz),drivenbygreater-than-expectedvehicleproduction,increasedsubstitutionandhigherloadings

.Capacityexpansionsdriveforecastindustrialdemandin2023toarecord2,667koz

.StrongETFdemandinQ2’23,with2023forecasttotalinvestmentof386koz

TheWorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncil–WPIC?-todaypublishesitsPlatinumQuarterlyforthesecondquarterof2023withanupdatedfull-yearforecast.

Forthethirdconsecutivequarter,globalplatinumdemandrose,growing31%(+519koz)year-on-yearinQ2’23.Strongyear-on-yeardemandgrowthmomentuminautomotive(+19%,+136koz)andindustrialdemand(+12%,+76koz)addedtocontinuedpositiveinvestmentdemand.Meanwhile,refinedplatinumproductionfell4%year-on-year(-65koz)asdidautocatalystrecycling(-13%,-37koz)andjewelleryrecycling(-9%,-9koz).Thisledtoamarketdeficitof348kozforQ2’23,markingplatinum’sfirsttwoconsecutivequartersofdeficitsincethesecondhalfof2020.

Theseevents,whichcontinuetrendsseeninthefirstquarterofthisyear,haveledtoanotherupwardrevisionofthedeficitforecastforthefull-year2023to1,005koz,thelargestdeficitonrecordintermsofbothabsoluteouncesandasapercentageofannualdemand.Totalsupplyisexpectedtoremainflat,alignedwiththeweak2022levelof7,224koz(-31koz),whiledemandisexpectedtoincreasesignificantlyby27%to8,230koz(+1,738koz).

Strongquarterlyincreaseinvehicleproductionaddstoexistingdriversforplatinum

automotivedemandgrowth

Platinumautomotivedemandrose19%year-on-year(+136koz)to840kozinQ2’23,asthesemiconductorshortagecontinuedtoease,leadingtoahealthyupliftinvehicleproduction.Globallight-dutyvehicle(LDV)productionincreased14%year-on-year,whileheavy-dutyvehicle(HDV)productiongrewby18%.

Forfull-year2023,automotiveplatinumdemandisbeingdrivenhigherbyincreasedvehicleproduction,withLDVandHDVproductionforecasttogrowby6%and7%respectively,ongoingsubstitutionofplatinumforpalladium,andhigherplatinumgroupmetal(PGM)loadings.TighterChineseemissionsstandardsforHDV(effectivefrom1July2023)willseeariseindemandforplatinumasPGM-coatedparticulatefiltersystemsarephasedin.Thesefactorswilllift2023globalplatinumautomotivedemandby13%(+381koz)to3,283koz.

2023industrialdemandforecastrevisedupwards

Industrialplatinumdemandtotalled697kozinQ2’23,a12%increaseyear-on-yearanditshighestlevelsinceQ3’21.Inparticular,thechemicalindustrysawan87%year-on-yearincrease(+109koz)thisquarterthankstohigherdemandforplatinum-bearingcatalystsfromtheparaxyleneindustry,whichoffsetcontractionsinotherareasofindustrialdemand.Lookingat2023asawhole,thealreadyrecord-breakingforecastforindustrialdemandhasbeenrevisedevenhigher,to2,667koz(+14%year-on-year,+336koz).Thisisinlargedueto

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capacityexpansionsinglass(+50%,+251koz)andchemical(+12%,+82koz)applications.Thiswillcounterbalancelowerdemandfromtheelectrical(-8%,-9koz)andpetroleum(-11%,-22koz)segments.

Netinvestmentdemandof386kozforecastfor2023

Aswiththepreviousquarter,Q2’23sawincreasedinvestorinterestresultinginnetpositiveinvestmentdemandof154koz.PlatinumETFholdingsgrewby155kozinQ2’23,theirlargestquarterlyincreasesinceQ3’20andup196kozsincethestartoftheyear,withsignificantrenewedinterestfromSouthAfricanfunds(inpreferencetoPGMminingequities).However,overallETFholdingsareexpectedtosoftenduringtherestof2023.Despiteafallinglobalbarandcoininvestmentto26koz(-64%,-46koz)inthesecondquarter,full-year2023islikelytoseeayear-on-yearjumpof45%(+102koz),to326koz,thefirstgrowthinbarandcoininvestmentinthreeyears,drivenbyareturntopositivenetplatinuminvestmentinJapan.Theresultwillmeannetinvestmentdemandof386kozin2023.

Totalsupplyremainsconstrained

Refinedmineproductiondeclined4%(-65koz)year-on-yearinQ2’23,totalling1,464koz,asincreasesfromNorthAmericaandRussiawereheavilyoutweighedbyadeclinefromSouthAfrica.Followingthreeconsecutivequartersofdecliningsupply,SouthAfricanoutputimprovedthisquarter,reaching1,028koz.Nevertheless,thiswasstilla9%decline(-101koz)year-on-year,primarilyduetoprocessing-assetmaintenanceinadditiontodisruptionduetoEskomloadcurtailment.For2023,minedplatinumsupplyisforecasttobeflaton2022(5,565koz),althoughSouthAfricanplatinumsupplyremainsvulnerabletoongoingelectricityshortages.

Globalrecyclingofplatinumdeclined12%(-46koz)year-on-yearto345kozinQ2’23.Supplyfromspentautocatalystswasdown13%(-37koz)year-on-year,withlower-than-expectedend-of-lifevehiclesupplypersisting.Full-yearplatinumrecyclingsupplyisforecasttofallby4%to1,620koz.

TrevorRaymond,CEOoftheWorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncil,commented:“Thecoredriversofplatinum’sexpected27%demandgrowthin2023–includingstronggrowthinautomotiveandindustrialdemand–werecleartoseeinQ2,andbuiltuponfoundationslaidintheprevioustwoquarters.Thesefavourableconditionsareexpectedtocontinuein2023.Lookingbeyondtoday’sPlatinumQuarterly,ourresearchshowsthatautomotiveandindustrialdemandgrowthunderpintotaldemandgrowthin2024andbeyond.Thisoffersbothshortandlong-termvalueincentivesforinvestors,aswellasprotectionfromdownsideriskspresentedbyinflationaryheadwindsandhighinterestrates.Meanwhile,continuingelectricityshortagesinmajorproducerSouthAfricahaveexacerbatedthedeficitandmaintaineddownsiderisktominedsupply.InQ2’23,thiscombinationofdemandgrowthandconstrainedsupplywasmetbystrongETFinflows,allofwhichhavecontributedtoawideninggapbetweenthesupplyof,anddemandfor,platinum.

“Asthedeficitgrows,itisimportanttohighlightthereducingavailabilityofabovegroundstockstomeetthisdeficit,andtoconsidertheconsequencesofthat.Bytheendof2023,abovegroundstockswillrepresentonlyfivemonthsofannualdemand,withmostofthesestocksheldinChinaandnotreadilyabletobeexportedtomeetglobalshortfalls,increasingconcernsovermetalavailability.This,combinedwithsustaineddemandgrowthandminesupplyremainingatriskfurtherstrengthenstheinvestmentcaseforplatinum.

“Similarly,thelinkbetweenplatinumandthehydrogeneconomyisincreasinglywell-known.Greenhydrogenproducedbyplatinum-containingelectrolysershasasignificantroletoplayintheenergytransition.Whilehydrogen-relatedplatinumdemandisrelativelysmallin2023–ofmorerelevanceinatightmarket–itisexpectedtogrowsubstantiallyinthemediumtermandcouldbecomeaproxyforinvestorslookingforexposuretoglobaldecarbonisation.”

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PlatinumSupply-demandBalance(koz)

SUPPLY

RefinedProduction

SouthAfrica ZimbabweNorthAmerica

Russia

Other

2019

6,075

4,374

458

356

716

170

2020

4,989

3,298

448

337

704

202

2021

6,297

4,678

485

273

652

208

2022

5,522

3,915

480

263

663

201

2023f

5,575

3,919

502

281

667

205

2022/2021Growth%

-12%

-16%-1%-4%2%

-3%

2023f/2022Growth%

1%

0%5%7%1%

2%

Increase(-)/Decrease(+)inProducerInventory

+2

-84

-93

+43

+30

N/A

-0

TotalMiningSupply

6,077

4,906

6,204

5,565

5,605

-10%

1%

Recycling

2,112

1,997

2,079

1,691

1,620

-19%

-4%

Autocatalyst

1,567

1,509

1,590

1,250

1,180

-21%

-6%

Jewellery

476

422

422

372

370

-12%

0%

Industrial

69

66

67

68

69

3%

2%

TotalSupply

8,189

6,902

8,283

7,256

7,224

-12%

0%

DEMAND

Automotive

2,810

2,324

2,557

2,902

3,283

13%

13%

Autocatalyst

2,810

2,324

2,557

2,902

3,283

13%

13%

Non-road

t

t

t

t

t

N/A

N/A

Jewellery

2,106

1,830

1,953

1,899

1,893

-3%

0%

Industrial

2,248

2,105

2,534

2,331

2,667

-8%

14%

Chemical

795

637

663

676

758

2%

12%

Petroleum

219

109

169

193

171

14%

-11%

Electrical

144

130

135

106

97

-21%

-8%

Glass

228

473

753

505

756

-33%

50%

Medical

277

256

269

278

287

3%

3%

Other

585

501

546

573

598

5%

4%

Investment

1,233

1,536

-56

-640

386

N/A

N/A

ChangeinBars,Coins

263

571

324

225

326

-31%

45%

ChangeinETFHoldings

991

507

-241

-558

60

N/A

N/A

ChangeinStocksHeldbyExchanges

-20

458

-139

-307

0

N/A

N/A

TotalDemand

8,397

7,796

6,988

6,491

8,230

-7%

27%

Balance

-208

-893

1,295

764

-1,005

-41%

N/A

AboveGroundStocks

3,442**

2,549

3,844

4,608

3,603

20%

-22%

Source:MetalsFocus2019-2023

Notes:

1.**AboveGroundStocks3,650kozasof31December2018(MetalsFocus).2.?Non-roadautomotivedemandisincludedinautocatalystdemand.

Q22022Q12023Q22023

1,530

1,129

124

64

161

52

1,177

763

116

71

180

48

1,464

1,028

126

74

190

47

-2

+24

+14

1,528

1,201

1,478

391

374

345

281

262

244

92

95

84

17

17

17

1,918

1,575

1,823

703

703

?

850

850

?

840

840

?

489

462

480

621

622

697

126

251

235

48

42

42

27

23

24

202

89

170

69

71

71

149

147

154

-162

169

154

72

100

26

-112

40

155

-123

29

-27

1,652

2,103

2,171

267

-528

-348

-ENDS-

Formediarequests,pleasecontactElephantCommunications:

wpic@elephantcommunications.co.uk

NotestoEditors:

AboutPlatinumQuarterly

PlatinumQuarterlyisthefirstindependent,freelyavailable,quarterlyanalysisoftheglobalplatinummarket.PlatinumQuarterlyisaWorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncilpublication.ItislargelybaseduponresearchanddetailedanalysiscommissionedbyWPICandconductedbyMetalsFocus,anindependentauthorityontheplatinumgroupmetalsmarkets.

AbouttheWorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncil-WPIC?

TheWorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncilLtd.isaglobalmarketauthorityonphysicalplatinuminvestment,formedtomeetthegrowinginvestordemandforobjectiveandreliableplatinummarketintelligence.WPIC’smissionistostimulateglobalinvestordemandforphysicalplatinum

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throughbothactionableinsightsandtargetedproductdevelopment.WPICwascreatedin2014bytheleadingplatinumproducersinSouthAfrica.WPIC’smembersare:AngloAmericanPlatinum,ImpalaPlatinum,NorthamPlatinum,RoyalBafokengPlatinum,SedibeloPlatinumandTharisa.

Forfurtherinformation,pleasevisit

WPIC’sofficesarelocatedat:WorldPlatinumInvestmentCouncil,FoxgloveHouse,166Piccadilly,London,W1J9EF

AboutMetalsFocus

MetalsFocusisoneoftheworld’sleadingpreciousmetalsconsultancies.Theyspecialiseinresearchintotheglobalgold,silver,platinumandpalladiummarketsproducingregularreports,forecastsandbespokeconsultancy.TheMetalsFocusteam,spreadacrosseightjurisdictions,hasanexhaustiverangeofcontactsacrosstheworld.Assuch,MetalsFocusisdedicatedtodeliveringworld-classstatistics,analysisandforecastsforthepreciousmetalsmarkets.

Formoreinformationgoto:

AboutPlatinum

Platinumisoneoftherarestmetalsintheworldwithdistinctivequalitiesmakingithighlyvaluedacrossanumberofdiversedemandsegments.Platinum’suniquephysicalandcatalyticpropertieshaveestablisheditsvalueinindustrialapplications.Atthesametime,itsuniquepreciousmetalattributeshavemadeitthepremierjewellerymetal.

Platinum’ssupplycomesfromtwomainsources:primaryminingoutput,andrecycling,whichtypicallycomesfromend