中國經(jīng)濟空間問題研究課件

第七章中國經(jīng)濟問題研究第一節(jié)改革開放以來經(jīng)濟發(fā)展總體態(tài)勢一、經(jīng)濟總體特征二、中國經(jīng)濟波動問題三、中國經(jīng)濟波動原因第二節(jié)中國經(jīng)濟空間問題研究一、中國經(jīng)濟空間特征二、各區(qū)域經(jīng)濟總體態(tài)勢及問題三、各層次區(qū)域單元空間經(jīng)濟問題的解決方法1第一節(jié)改革開放以來經(jīng)濟發(fā)展總體態(tài)勢一、經(jīng)濟總體特征1、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展速度快——后發(fā)優(yōu)勢，但經(jīng)濟波動明顯。2、中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的“四高一低”特征突出—高儲蓄、低消費、高投資、高外匯儲備3、外向型經(jīng)濟特征明顯4、工業(yè)仍然是中國經(jīng)濟的主導；以金融業(yè)為主要特征的第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展迅速，但潛在風險巨大5、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的人口與資源紅利逐步消失6、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展?jié)摿薮螅壳皢与y度大7、城市化成為中國經(jīng)濟進一步發(fā)展的巨大引擎8、中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展空間不均衡特征明顯。2二、中國經(jīng)濟波動問題研究1、基本理論1）西方20世紀30年代前純貨幣理論投資過度理論氣候與農(nóng)業(yè)收成理論心理理論2）當代（凱恩斯理論建立后）理論凱恩斯理論—資本邊際效率的波動薩繆爾森線性乘數(shù)一加速數(shù)動態(tài)周期模型卡爾多非線性經(jīng)濟周期模型貨幣主義經(jīng)濟周期理論實際經(jīng)濟周期理論和新凱恩斯主義的周期理論33、經(jīng)濟周期基欽周期——1923年英國經(jīng)濟學家基欽提出的一種為期3-4年的經(jīng)濟周朱格拉周期

——是1860年法國經(jīng)濟學家朱格拉提出的一種為期9~10年的經(jīng)濟周期康德拉季耶夫周期

——是1926年俄國經(jīng)濟學家康德拉季耶夫提出的一種為期50-60年的經(jīng)濟周期庫茲涅茨周期

——是1930年美國經(jīng)濟學家?guī)炷奶岢龅囊环N為期15-25年，平均長度為20年左右的經(jīng)濟周期熊彼特周期

——1936年，偉大的經(jīng)濟學家熊彼特提出他認為，每一個長周期包括6個中周期，每一個中周期包括三個短周期。短周期約為40個月，中周期約為9~10年，長周期為48~60年。44、研究經(jīng)濟周期的方法1）加法模型Y=T+C+S+IY：原始數(shù)據(jù)；T:長期趨勢要素；C:循環(huán)要素；S:季節(jié)要素；I：不規(guī)則要素——這些要素都為絕對量2）乘數(shù)法Y=T*C*S*IT：絕對量其他三個為相對量5、經(jīng)濟周期的劃分方法1）增長率法：2）BN法——將一個ARMA（p,1,q)分解為長期趨勢和不規(guī)則部分3）HP濾波法——56、中國經(jīng)濟波動問題研究1、數(shù)據(jù)資料——中國統(tǒng)計年鑒年份國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)

總值第一產(chǎn)業(yè)第二產(chǎn)業(yè)

第三產(chǎn)業(yè)

工業(yè)建筑業(yè)

19783645.2174741027.5345431745.21607138.2872.482931519794062.5791911270.1917081913.51769.7143.8878.887482719804545.6239731371.59314321921996.5195.5982.0308319814891.5610621559.4632652255.52048.4207.11076.59779719825323.3509651777.40067823832162.3220.71162.95028719835962.6515681978.3874032646.22375.6270.61338.06416619847208.0517182316.0894963105.72789316.71786.26222319859016.0365812564.3968913866.63448.7417.92585.03969198610275.179222788.6908114492.73967525.72993.788405198712058.615133233.0409815251.64585.8665.83573.974144198815042.823013865.3621696587.25777.28104590.260841198916992.319114265.923062727864847945448.396046199018667.8223850627717.46858859.45888.422376199121781.499415342.29102.28087.11015.17337.099411199226923.476455866.611699.510284.514159357.376451199335333.924716963.76289516454.4313114187.971312266.46000411915.73051199448197.856449572.6947522445.3990619480.709482964.68958216179.76263199560793.7292112135.811428679.457524950.61093728.84660419978.4603199671176.5916514015.3899933834.9590129447.607084387.35193623326.242656199778973.03514441.8856737543.0021932921.388564621.61363226988.14714199884402.2797714817.6255239004.1885434018.430554985.75799530580.46571199989677.0547514770.0284741033.5815935861.47935172.10228733873.44469200099214.5543114944.722545555.8779640033.592875522.28508538713.953852001109655.170615781.2690549512.2909743580.616115931.67486144361.610542002120332.689316537.0196653896.7677947431.308286465.45951749898.901822003135822.756117381.717762436.3121454945.527377490.7847756004.726312004159878.337921412.7340473904.3118765210.029128694.28274664561.292012005184937.3692242087598.0937977230.7791110367.3146874919.275172006216314.425924040103719.541691310.9362912408.6052988554.884362007265810.305828627125831.358110534.876515296.48158111351.94782008314045.427133702149003.44130260.2418743.2131339.98712009340902.812635226157638.7766135239.949922398.82672148038.0362010401512.795240533.6187383.2113160722.231726660.97956173595.9842011472881.557847486.21059220412.8143188470.153131942.6612204982.53297修正后的GDP數(shù)值GDP第一產(chǎn)業(yè)第二產(chǎn)業(yè)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)1978年15279.310416673.4013814857.4670974975.5036121979年16436.390257082.7551315255.7012925366.5181611980年17725.240266977.7188445968.8375275688.4278171981年18654.594027464.9600346080.2105236281.1926421982年20344.116478325.6010136418.3745367096.2017081983年22552.059239018.7686467083.6461628172.9138211984年25974.5645210180.456888109.4642689754.3064521985年29472.349410368.16879615.29189811525.826121986年32079.5844410712.2227110597.9630812914.039041987年35795.4473311216.1606412049.3177214767.97181988年39833.382711501.5230813798.655816711.405071989年41451.8939911855.1903614318.5762317607.174211990年43043.2425412723.9267314772.4279318018.276521991年46994.1545313029.2806816819.060219616.979051992年53686.4540813641.763920376.9309622057.837421993年61183.3994614283.1593724425.0210724745.864081994年69186.6052714854.5567528909.3508827490.433021995年76745.2282915597.3987232920.6888930195.386051996年84426.2924616392.9928636906.1855933041.758221997年92275.4333716966.6727940773.5778936582.846281998年99503.6881317560.3884144406.6755939645.657791999年107085.705718052.0792948019.4830843344.520172000年116114.400818485.3268452416.1810545488.385392001年125752.264819002.9291356840.9012150154.3210782002年137173.17119554.0188862427.9593255391.590222003年150925.30120042.8598770338.7721960655.453662004年166146.177721305.5654178155.1364766755.23062005年184937.3692242087598.0937974919.275172006年208381.01782354199328.4640485511.553772007年237892.760624422.37504114290.638199179.747562008年260812.938825735.92772125579.6526109497.35852009年284844.761926812.60283138062.7461119969.4132010年314602.463327957.84741154975.7652131668.85079GDP軌跡與趨勢線Y=3.18-0.21X1+0.49X2+0.48X31011第二產(chǎn)業(yè)波動圖121314中國固定資產(chǎn)投資趨勢圖（原始數(shù)據(jù)）15中國固定資產(chǎn)投資趨勢圖（對數(shù)）1617一、中國經(jīng)濟空間總體特征1、概述數(shù)據(jù)收集與處理數(shù)據(jù)分析結(jié)論2、中國經(jīng)濟空間格局演變3、中國經(jīng)濟空間特征第二節(jié)中國經(jīng)濟空間問題研究18省份1978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993

上海273286312325337352391467491545648.3696.5756.5893.811141512

北京109120139139155183217257285327410.2456500.8598.9709.1863.5

天津82.793104108114123147176195220259.6283.3311342.8411.2536.1

江蘇249299320350390438519652745922120913221417161021362998

浙江124158180204233256322428500604765.8843.7898108213651909

內(nèi)蒙古5864.168.478.493.7105128164182212270.8292.7319.3359.7421.7532.7

廣東185207246284331357442553638808109913121472178122943225

遼寧22924528128931536443851960571988110041063120014732011

山東225252292347395460582680742892111812941511181121972779

福建66.474.187.1106118128157200223279383.2458.4523.3622787.71133

吉林8891.198.6111122150173200227297368.7391.7425.4463.5558.1718

河北183203219223251283332397437522701.3822.8896.3107212791691

湖北151188199220242263328396442518626.5717.1824.4913.410881424

重慶71.78190.797.2108120142164185207261.3303.8327.8374.2461.3608.5

陜西81.194.594.9103112124149181206239301.5336.3374.1427.9540.5671.4

黑龍江175187221228248277318355401455552630.6715.2824.28641203

寧夏1314.41617.418.220.324.830.334.539.650.2959.2164.8471.7883.14103.8

山西88106109122139155197219235257316.7376.3429.3468.5570704.7

新疆39.145.653.259.465.278.689.8112129149192.7217.4274335.9402.3505.6

河南163190229250263328370452503610749.1850.7934.7104612801663

湖南147178192210233257287350398469584.1640.8744.4833.3997.71278

青海15.515.217.817.52022.526.43338.443.454.9660.3769.9475.187.52109.6

海南16.417.519.322.228.931.137.243.34857.377.1391.4102.5120.5181.7258.1

四川245291322333379421498606655747922.6995.71186138316252096

江西87104111121134144169208231263325.8376.5428.6479.4572.6723.1

廣西75.984.697.3113129135150181205242313.3383.4449.1518.6646.6893.6

安徽114127141171188216266331383441546.9616.3658663.6801.21070

西藏6.657.38.6710.410.210.313.617.816.917.720.2521.8627.730.5333.2937.28

甘肅64.767.573.970.976.991.5103123141160191.8216.8242.8271.4317.8372.2

云南69.176.884.394.1110120140165182229301.1363.1451.7517.4618.7779.2

貴州46.655.360.367.979.487.4108124140166211.8235.8260.1295.9339.9416.119省份199419951996199719981999200020012002

上海1971.922462.572902.203360.213688.204034.964551.155210.125741.03

北京1084.031394.891615.731810.092011.312174.462478.763710.524330.40

天津725.14920.111102.401235.281336.381450.061639.361919.092150.76

江蘇4057.395155.256004.216680.347199.957697.828582.739456.8410606.85

浙江2666.863524.794146.064638.244987.505364.896036.346898.348003.67

內(nèi)蒙古681.92832.88984.781099.771192.291268.201401.011713.811940.94

廣東4240.565381.726519.147315.517919.128464.319662.2312039.2513502.42

遼寧2461.782793.373157.693582.463881.734171.694669.065033.085458.22

山東3872.185002.345960.426650.027162.207662.108542.449195.0410275.50

福建1685.342160.522583.833000.363286.563550.243920.074072.854467.55

吉林936.781129.21337.161446.911557.781669.561821.192120.352348.54

河北2187.492849.523452.973953.784256.014569.195088.965516.766018.28

湖北1878.652391.422970.203450.243704.213857.994276.323880.534212.82

重慶833.61123.061179.091350.101429.261479.711589.341765.681990.01

陜西816.581000.031175.381300.031381.531487.611660.922010.622253.39

黑龍江1618.632014.532402.582708.462798.892897.413253.003390.133637.20

寧夏133.97169.75193.62210.92227.46241.49265.57337.44377.16

山西853.771092.481308.011480.131486.081506.781643.812029.532324.80

新疆673.68834.57912.151050.141116.671168.551364.361491.601612.65

河南2224.433002.743661.184079.264356.604576.105137.665533.016035.48

湖南1694.422195.72647.162993.003118.093326.753691.883831.904151.54

青海138.24165.31183.57202.05220.16238.39263.59300.13340.65

海南330.95364.17389.53409.86438.92471.23518.48558.41621.97

四川2777.8835342985.153320.113580.263711.614010.254293.494725.01

江西948.161205.111517.261715.181851.981962.982003.072175.682450.48

廣西1241.831606.151697.901817.251903.041953.272050.142279.342523.73

安徽1488.472003.582339.252669.952805.452908.593038.243246.713519.72

西藏45.8455.9864.7676.9891.18105.61117.46146.04166.56

甘肅451.66553.35714.18781.34869.75931.98983.361125.371232.03

云南973.971206.681491.621644.231793.901855.741955.092138.312312.82

貴州521.17630.07713.70792.98841.88911.86993.531133.271243.4320省份200320042005200620072008200920102011

上海6694.238072.839154.1810572.2412494.0114069.8615046.4517165.9819195.69

北京5023.776060.286886.318117.789846.8111115.0012153.0314113.5816251.93

天津2578.033110.973697.624462.745252.766719.017521.859224.4611307.28

江蘇12442.8715003.6018305.6621742.0526018.4830981.9834457.3041425.4849110.27

浙江9705.0211648.7013437.8515718.4718753.7321462.6922990.3527722.3132318.85

內(nèi)蒙古2388.383041.073895.554944.256423.188496.209740.2511672.0014359.88

廣東15844.6418864.6222366.5426587.7631777.0136796.7139482.5646013.0653210.28

遼寧6002.546672.008009.019304.5211164.3013668.5815212.4918457.2722226.70

山東12078.1515021.8418516.8721900.1925776.9130933.2833896.6539169.9245361.85

福建4983.675763.356568.937583.859248.5310823.0112236.5314737.1217560.18

吉林2662.083122.013620.274275.125284.696426.107278.758667.5810568.83

河北6921.298477.6310096.1111467.6013607.3216011.9717235.4820394.2624515.76

湖北4757.455633.246520.147617.479333.4011328.8912961.1015967.6119632.26

重慶2272.822692.813070.493907.234676.135793.666530.017925.5810011.37

陜西2587.723175.583675.664743.615757.297314.588169.8010123.4812512.30

黑龍江4057.404750.605511.506211.807104.008314.378587.0010368.6012582.00

寧夏445.36537.16606.10725.90919.111203.921353.311689.652102.21

山西2855.233571.374179.524878.616024.457315.407358.319200.8611237.55

新疆1886.352209.092604.193045.263523.164183.214277.055437.476610.05

河南6867.708553.7910587.4212362.7915012.4618018.5319480.4623092.3626931.03

湖南4659.995641.946511.347688.679439.6011555.0013059.6916037.9619669.56

青海390.20466.10543.32648.50797.351018.621081.271350.431670.44

海南693.20798.90894.571044.911254.171503.061654.212064.502522.66

四川5333.096379.637385.118690.2410562.3912601.2314151.2817185.4821026.68

江西2807.413456.704056.764820.535800.256971.057655.189451.2611702.82

廣西2821.113433.504075.754746.165823.417021.007759.169569.8511720.87

安徽3923.104759.325375.126112.507360.928851.6610062.8212359.3315300.65

西藏189.09220.34251.21290.76341.43394.85441.36507.46605.83

甘肅1399.831688.491933.982276.702702.403166.823387.564120.755020.37

云南2556.023081.913472.893988.144772.525692.126169.757224.188893.12

貴州1426.341677.801979.062338.982884.113561.563912.684602.165701.8421222324252627281978年以來中國經(jīng)濟空間離散性變化軌跡2930313233342、197