紡織服裝-紡織服飾行業(yè)2024年一季報前瞻：紡織制造業(yè)績大幅增長服裝家紡業(yè)績兩極分化

紡織服飾行業(yè)2024年一季報前瞻：紡織制造業(yè)績大幅增長，服裝家紡業(yè)績兩極分化核心觀點：游海外品牌庫存去化順利，需求回暖，加之上年同期基數(shù)較低，包括人民幣匯率小幅貶值影響，業(yè)績預(yù)計大幅高端、性價比、職業(yè)裝三個方向的龍頭公司業(yè)績預(yù)計有望保持較快增長，前兩者得益于國內(nèi)消費兩極分化，高望樂觀，龍頭公司估值股價有望修復(fù)，中長期板塊仍需關(guān)注美國經(jīng)濟的韌性，近期耐克和露露檸檬未來銷售指平持續(xù)提升的運動鞋服、羽絨服、家紡、職業(yè)裝等子行大眾高性價比服飾龍頭和小眾細分高端服飾龍頭均表現(xiàn)優(yōu)秀，建議關(guān)注服裝家紡板塊內(nèi)相關(guān)子行業(yè)對標龍頭公相關(guān)研究：報告日期合理價值（元/股）報喜鳥歌力思偉星股份健盛集團穩(wěn)健醫(yī)療備注1）表中估值指標按照最新收盤價計算2）太平鳥、喬治白、健盛集團、浙江自然、南山智尚、富春染織、安踏體育、 一、2024年一季報業(yè)績預(yù)期表1：紡織服裝行業(yè)A股部分重點覆蓋公司2024年第一季度業(yè)績預(yù)測運動8.1010.7912.7330.16%33.13%18.00%2.133.013.7541.29%41.36%24.76%11.5712.9013.5216.31%11.49%4.75%2.062.562.7613.72%24.22%8.17%12.8612.4011.58-2.49%-3.62%-6.60%1.591.771.45-12.81%11.13%-18.29%6.716.206.766.84%-7.57%9.00%1.051.111.2313.82%5.28%10.92%裝2.472.462.8312.32%-0.38%15.00%0.140.290.33-8.78%111.07%14.32%52.1256.8261.42-5.15%9.02%8.10%7.238.039.31-14.17%11.07%15.97%6.286.666.9917.20%5.99%5.00%0.470.470.46-49.67%0.39%-2.90%10.8011.6711.560.73%8.05%-1.00%0.411.031.13-56.54%149.32%9.75%33.0930.0230.32-0.03%-9.29%1.00%2.093.113.27-40.74%48.85%5.00%尚24.6420.7419.28-7.74%-15.83%-7.00%1.902.171.35-6.44%14.20%-37.78%8.9411.3912.650.26%21.31%11.00%-0.020.620.65-106.37%6985.13%5.34%健盛集團5.324.976.2128.54%-6.57%25.00%0.820.390.6474.10%-52.99%64.27%15.8013.7814.4759.05%-12.77%5.00%1.590.961.40113.84%-39.92%46.11%19.7514.8618.575.39%-24.78%25.00%3.450.840.7254.58%-75.59%-14.24%4.744.735.9144.02%-0.24%25.00%0.260.230.30-32.72%-13.08%33.56%8.939.7810.2740.24%9.44%5.00%0.740.900.9247.40%21.23%2.48%3.223.263.668.03%1.26%12.43%0.280.320.3617.71%13.40%13.10%9.459.7011.6527.92%2.67%20.00%1.150.741.0617.20%-35.10%42.90%7.236.978.0233.58%-3.60%15.00%0.650.540.6245.13%-17.74%15.00%23.2223.5220.002.37%1.28%-14.99%3.573.772.86-25.69%5.56%-24.24%布3.353.984.57-27.58%18.66%15.00%0.080.100.14-85.00%35.58%37.35%運動41.243.3036.612.4043.203.0011.39%46.61%-11.23%-27.23%18.00%25.00%6.480.854.810.676.790.8112.40%37.82%-25.77%-20.91%41.14%20.09%6.127.409.3435.56%21.00%26.20%0.470.350.592.78%-24.72%68.94%1.921.862.52-9.69%-2.82%35.53%0.120.130.24-36.03%2.88%93.06%注1）表中24Q1業(yè)績預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)系根據(jù)小組最新發(fā)布的公司研報中對于24年全年預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)的季度分拆；50%0%-.-16.3% -1.3%-4.5%-9.6%-13.1%-12.8%表2：港股運動公司2024年第一季度主品牌終端零售預(yù)測50%0%-.-16.3% -1.3%-4.5%-9.6%-13.1%-12.8%運動持平略增二、紡織品服裝出口金額增長情況30%15%0%-15%-30%●4.9%4.5%●4.9%4.5%-8.4%-5.6%出口金額:紡織紗線、織物及制品:累計同比30%20%10% 0%-10%-20%--0.4%0-9.4%-4.0%6.4%---0.4%0-9.4%-4.0%6.4%--6.4%-11.0%24.0%.18.3%20.9%.11.3%3.9%5.2%.3.2%13.1%0.3%-7.8%出口金額:服裝及衣著附件:累計同比100%-50%Q1Q2Q3Q42020年出口金額:紡織紗線、織物及制品:同比2021年出口金額:紡織紗線、織物及制品:同比一2022年出口金額:紡織紗線、織物及制品:同比2023年出口金額:紡織紗線、織物及制品:同比2024年出口金額:紡織紗線、織物及制品:同比注1）2024年Q1截至2月底2）以上季度同比增速通47.7%55%34.4%13.1%20.8%35%13.1%20.8%7.4%8.9%16.0%7.4%8.9%15%5.7%-5%-25%Q1Q2Q3Q42021年出口金額:服裝及衣著附件:同比一2022年出口金額:服裝及衣著附件:同比2023年出口金額:服裝及衣著附件:同比2024年出口金額:服裝及衣著附件:同比注1）2024年Q1截至2月底2）以上季度同比增速通三、限額以上企業(yè)服裝鞋帽針織品零售額增長情況30%20%10%0%-10%.-6.6%-6.5%24.8%.-6.6%-6.5%..24.2%18.8%●18.0%12.9%●11.6%10.9%7.8%9.8%7.0%8.0%.2.9%12.7%零售額:服裝鞋帽針紡織品類:累計同比60%54.2%40%18.8%9.0%17.6%18.8%9.0%6.0%1.7%6.0%1.7%17.7%-12.2%-12.0%0%-12.2%-12.0%-0.9%-1.7%-2.0%-0.9%-1.7%-20%Q1Q2Q3Q4零售額:服裝鞋帽針紡織品類:同比(2021年) 零售額:服裝鞋帽針紡織品類:同比(2022年)零售額:服裝鞋帽針紡織品類:同比(2023年)零售額:服裝鞋帽針紡織品類:同比(2024年)四、穿類商品網(wǎng)上零售額增長情況廠廠.3.5%=-穿著類商品網(wǎng)上零售額同比增速五、天貓旗艦店服裝家紡各子品類增長情況50.06%38.90%33.85%60%-38.90%33.85%60%-40%-20%-0%-20%--60%--80%--14.44%-10.91%-14.44%-3.92%-34.25%-31.68%.68%-36.86%-31.68%.68%-56.89%-54.08%-56.89%-61.99%Q1Q2Q3Q420年男裝成交額增速 22年男裝成交額增速 24年男裝成交額增速21年男裝成交額增速23年男裝成交額增速60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%21.02%--7.16%20.65%-11.85%14.56%-44.80%-1.49%20.46%-36.16%-42.04%21.02%--7.16%20.65%-11.85%14.56%-44.80%-1.49%20.46%-36.16%-42.04%-55.48%-72.06%42.41%-9.09%-9.09%-13.69%Q1Q2Q3Q420年女裝成交額增速21年女裝成交額增速 22年女裝成交額增速23年女裝成交額增速24年女裝成交額增速17.53%6.05%-30.87%-30..20年童裝成交額增速 22年童裝成交額增速 24年童裝成交額增速21年童裝成交額增速23年童裝成交額增速80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%.-29.44%-33.65%-34.35%-31.07%-36.16%-33.43%-55.17%-30.92%28.47%28.09%59.99%-13.51%●.-29.44%-33.65%-34.35%-31.07%-36.16%-33.43%-55.17%-30.92%28.47%28.09%59.99%-13.51%●402%-13.13%-44.80%-55.39%Q1Q2Q3-44.80%-55.39%20年男鞋成交額增速—一22年男鞋成交額增速 24年男鞋成交額增速一21年男鞋成交額增速一23年男鞋成交額增速60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%44.24%35.09%36.92%35.09%26.66%-5.37%-5.37%-2.39%-22.33%-10.37%-38.14%-37.59%-22.33%-10.37%-38.14%-37.59%38.65%-50.28%-60.02%-65.92%Q1Q2Q3Q420年女鞋成交額增速 22年女鞋成交額增速 24年女鞋成交額增速一21年女鞋成交額增速23年女鞋成交額增速20年童鞋成交額增速 22年童鞋成交額增速 24年童鞋成交額增速21年童鞋成交額增速23年童鞋成交額增速43.22%60%43.22%38.24%32.40%28.55%40%32.40%28.55%3.32%-15.15%3.32%-15.15%0.01%-11.22%-18.09%-33.83%-11.22%-18.09%-33.83%-3.03%11.65%-33.64%-31.93%-31.93%-42.05%-43.99%-40%-35.97%-60%Q1Q2Q3Q420年床上用品成交額增速 22年床上用品成交額增速 24年床上用品成交額增速一21年床上用品成交額增速23年床上用品成交額增速100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80%-100%-120%84.58%44.55%89.20%44.55%%42.15%%1.32%29.25%-20.54%-28.03%-40.95%-47.30%-83.03%-90.20%-93.43%-94.36%-83.03%-90.20%-93.43%Q1Q2Q3Q420年旅行箱成交額增速 22年旅行箱成交額增速 24年旅行箱成交額增速21年旅行箱成交額增速23年旅行箱成交額增速100%80%60%40%20% 0%-20%-40%-60%-80%-6.66%-25.80%1.32%-41.92%-33.59%-20.54%-30.02%-42.78%84.58%41.90%32.71%3.71%-11-6.66%-25.80%1.32%-41.92%-33.59%-20.54%-30.02%-42.78%84.58%41.90%32.71%3.71%-1160%48.37%1167%65.22%-56.55%-65.22%Q1Q3Q4Q2Q1Q3Q420年內(nèi)衣成交額增速 22年內(nèi)衣成交額增速 24年內(nèi)衣成交額增速21年內(nèi)衣成交額增速23年內(nèi)衣成交額增速113.03%93.22%52.30%33.55%53.37%31.33%-9.24%26.17%-6.50%22.86%-13.51%113.03%93.22%52.30%33.55%53.37%31.33%-9.24%26.17%-6.50%22.86%-13.51%-24.30%-62.21%-54.01%-80.27%-84.30%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%-100%Q1Q2Q3Q420年戶外成交額增速21年戶外成交額增速 22年戶外成交額增速23年戶外成交額增速 24年戶外成交額增速-19.21%2.94%-41.42%-22.80%-27.83%-40.76%-30.17%20.44%20.77%9.58%20%0%-20%-0.36%9.47%-2.85%-17.94%-25.58%-35.84%-21.94%-29.28%