高盛-蘋果24Q3業(yè)績預(yù)覽0719

18July2024|12:04AMEDT

AppleInc.(AAPL)

Buy

F3Q24preview:AppleIntelligenceandtheiPhonereplacementcycle

AAPL12mPriceTarget:$265.00Price:$228.88Upside:15.8%

WeexpectAAPLtodeliveranEPSbeatinF3Q24Ewith$85.1bnofrevenue(+4%yoy)andEPSof$1.36(v.FactSetconsensus

$1.33).WeestimateF3Q24EiPhonerevenueof$37.8bn(-5%yoy)withdouble-digitrevenuegrowthiniPad(+23%yoy)andMac

(+13%yoy),alongwith15%yoygrowthinServices.

Inthisreport,wediscussthepathto$9-$10ofEPS(GSe:

$8.57/$9.59inF2026/27)andwhyAAPLEPSshouldacceleratetoa12%CAGR(F2023-F2027E)afterrealizing0%yoygrowthinF2023.Appleshouldbene?tfrom(1)anincreaseiniPhoneshipmentsto

230/240/256mninF2024/25/26EdrivenbyAppleIntelligenceand

newproductinnovationiniPhone16(largerscreensforProandProMax)andiPhone17(thinnerdevices);(2)increasednumberofAppledevicesperiPhoneuserwithMacandiPadalsobeingAI

bene?ciaries;and(3)price/mixbene?tsasApplecontinuestodriveamixshifttowardpremiumiPhonemodelsandhasopportunitiestotakepricingfollowingseveralyearsofproductandecosystem

investments.

_

F3Q24earningspreview:ExpectEPSbeatwithkeydebatessurroundingiPhone

demand,AIinvestment,Mac/iPadrefresh,andvaluation

WeexpectAAPLtodeliveranEPSbeatinF3Q24withEPSof

$1.36andrevenueof$85.1bn.iPhonerevenuedeclines(GSe:-5%yoy)willbedrivenbypricediscountingamidsteffortstomaintain

cleanchannelinventorieswhileiPadrevenueshouldbeupdoubledigits(GSe:+23%yoy)onnewiPadsmodelslaunchedinMay(i.e.,

MichaelNg,CFA

+1(212)902-8618|michael.ng@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

KatherineCampagna

+1(212)902-1151|katherine.a.campagna@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

YashGoenka

+1(212)934-6312|yash.goenka@GoldmanSachsIndiaSPL

ZoraydaMontemayor

+1(212)357-6403|zorayda.montemayor@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

KeyData

Marketcap:$3.5trEnterprisevalue:$3.5tr 3mADTV:$13.5bnunitedStates

AmericasHardware,Media,andSMlDFintechM&ARank:3

GSForecast

Revenue($mn)New

Revenue($mn)OldEBITDA($mn)

EBIT($mn)

EPS($)New

EPS($)OldP/E(X)

Dividendyield(%)

Netdebt/EBITDA(X)

EPS($)

9/23383,285.0

383,285.0125,820.0114,301.0

6.13

6.1326.4 0.6(0.4)

3/24

1.53

9/24E388,985.3

387,380.2132,631.8121,268.1

6.63

6.6034.5 0.4(0.3)

6/24E

1.36

9/25E423,735.1

426,501.8143,307.8131,615.4

7.40

7.4330.9 0.4(0.3)

9/24E

1.55

9/26E464,383.4

457,007.9159,634.4147,314.0

8.57

8.3826.7 0.5(0.3)

12/24E

2.39

GSFactorPro?le

Growth

FinancialReturns

Multiple

Integrated

Percentile20th40th60th80th100th

AAPLrelativetoAmericasCoverage

AAPLrelativetoAmericasHardware,Media,andSMIDFintech

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsResearchestimates.Seedisclosuresfordetails.

GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,

investorsshouldbeawarethatthe?rmmayhaveacon?ictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthis

report.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcerti?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaf?liatesarenotregistered/quali?edasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.

GoldmanSachs

AppleInc.(AAPL)RatingsinceMar5,2023

阝uv

Ratios&Valuation

P/E(X)

EV/EBITDA(X)EV/sales(X)

FCFyield(%)EV/DACF(X)CROCI(%)

ROE(%)

Netdebt/EBITDA(X)Netdebt/equity(%)Interestcover(X)

InventorydaysReceivabledays

Dayspayableoutstanding

9/23

26.419.9 6.5 3.921.361.8171.9 (0.4)(82.1)29.1 9.627.5108.0

9/24E

34.526.2 8.9 2.828.369.9162.0 (0.3)(57.9)28.912.128.3103.9

9/25E

30.923.5 7.9 3.725.177.5170.1 (0.3)(64.3)31.312.928.496.9

9/26E

26.720.3 7.0 4.221.884.1184.9 (0.3)(68.0)35.113.329.0100.0

Growth&Margins(%)

9/239/24E9/25E9/26E

Totalrevenuegrowth

EBITDAgrowthEPSgrowth

DPSgrowthGrossmarginEBITmargin

9.611.415.93.945.631.7

8.98.011.64.145.531.1

1.5 5.4 8.04.346.031.2

(2.8)(3.6)0.34.444.129.8

PricePerformance

AAPL($)

260

240

220

200

180

160

S&P500

6,500

6,000

5,500

5,000

4,500

4,000

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

Oct-23

3m

36.2%20.7%

6m

25.3%4.8%

12m

18.0%(5.8)%

Absolute

Rel.totheS&P500

Source:FactSet.Priceasof17Jul2024close.

IncomeStatement($mn)

Totalrevenue

costofgoodssoldSG&A

R&D

otheroperatinginc./(exp.)

EBITDA

Depreciation&amortization

EBIT

Netinterestinc./(exp.)

lncome/(loss)fromassociates

Pre-taxprofit

provisionfortaxesMinorityinterest

preferreddividends

Netinc.(pre-exceptionaIs)Netinc.(post-exceptionaIs)EPS(basicrpre-except)($)

EPS(diIutedrpre-except)($)EPS(ex-ESOexp.rdiI.)($)

DpS($)

Div.payoutratio(%)

wtdavgsharesout.(basic)(mn)wtdavgsharesout.(diluted)(mn)

9/23

383,285.0(214,137.0) (24,932.0)(29,915.0)

--

125r820.0

(11,519.0)

114r301.0

(565.0)

--

113r736.0

(16,741.0)

--

--

96r995.096r995.0 6.166.13

--

0.94 15.315,744.215,812.5

9/24E

388,985.3(209,872.2) (25,990.0)(31,855.0)

--

132r631.8

(11,363.7)

121r268.1

175.8

--

121r443.9

(19,319.1)

--

--

102r124.8102r124.8 6.656.63

--

0.98 14.715,353.715,414.5

9/25E

423,735.1(230,935.7) (26,622.0)(34,562.0)

--

143r307.8

(11,692.4)

131r615.4

16.4

--

131r631.8

(21,061.1)

--

--

110r570.7110r570.7 7.427.40

--

1.02 13.714,892.314,951.1

9/26E

464,383.4(252,485.4) (27,422.0)(37,162.0)

--

159r634.4

(12,320.4)

147r314.0

148.6

--

147r462.6

(23,594.0)

--

--

123r868.5123r868.5 8.618.57

--

1.06 12.314,393.114,451.9

AppleInc.(AAPL)

BalanceSheet($mn)

cash&cashequivalentsAccountsreceivable

Inventory

Othercurrentassets

Totalcurrentassets

NetPP&E

Netintangibles

Totalinvestments

Otherlong-termassets

Totalassets

Accountspayable

Short-termdebt

CurrentleaseliabilitiesOthercurrentliabilities

Totalcurrentliabilities

Long-termdebt

Non-currentleaseliabilitiesOtherlong-termliabilities

Totallong-termliabilitiesTotalliabilities

Preferredshares

Totalcommonequity

Minorityinterest

Totalliabilities&equity

BVPS($)

9/23

29,965.029,508.06,331.077,762.0

143,566.0

43,715.0 6,512.0100,544.058,246.0

352,583.0

62,611.015,807.0

--

66,890.0

145,308.0

95,281.0

--

49,848.0

145,129.0290,437.0

--

62,146.0

--

352,583.0

3.95

9/24E

33,964.030,855.27,554.877,347.3

149,721.3

44,236.66,512.078,687.063,750.0

342,906.8

56,916.212,759.0

--

69,869.9

139,545.1

91,831.0

--

47,564.0

139,395.0278,940.1

--

63,966.7

--

342,906.8

4.17

9/25E

47,374.335,024.48,712.681,720.0

172,831.3

46,429.86,512.072,687.063,750.0

362,210.1

65,638.512,759.0

--

78,389.5

156,787.0

91,831.0

--

47,564.0

139,395.0296,182.0

--

66,028.1

--

362,210.1

4.43

9/26E

59,111.238,817.09,657.086,681.8

194,267.1

49,271.86,512.066,687.063,750.0

380,487.9

72,753.612,759.0

--

87,659.8

173,172.5

91,831.0

--

47,564.0

139,395.0312,567.5

--

67,920.4

--

380,487.9

4.72

CashFlow($mn)

Netincome

D&Aadd-back

Minorityinterestadd-backNet(inc)/decworkingcapitalOthers

Cashflowfromoperations

Capitalexpenditures

AcquisitionsDivestituresOthers

Cashflowfrominvesting

Dividendspaid

Shareissuance/(repurchase)

Inc/(dec)indebtOthers

CashflowfromfinancingTotalcashflow

Freecashflow

Freecashflowpershare(basic)($)

9/23

96,995.011,519.0

--

(6,577.0)8,606.0

110,543.0

(10,959.0)

--

--

--

3,705.0

(15,025.0)(82,981.0)(9,901.0)

--

(107,929.0)6,319.0

99,584.06.33

9/24E

102,124.811,363.7

--

(15,854.1)9,494.1

107,128.4

(9,358.3)

--

--

--

18,646.7

(15,189.2)(98,869.0)

--

--

(121,776.2)3,999.0

97,770.26.37

9/25E

110,570.711,692.4

--

2,742.212,038.4

137,043.7

(11,085.6)

--

--

--

(3,085.6)

(15,247.7)(105,300.0)

--

--

(120,547.7)13,410.3

125,958.18.46

9/26E

123,868.512,320.4

--

1,886.612,640.3

150,715.9

(12,362.4)

--

--

--

(4,362.4)

(15,316.5)(119,300.0)

--

--

(134,616.5)11,736.9

138,353.49.61

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsResearchestimates.

_

18July20242

GoldmanSachs

AppleInc.(AAPL)

TableofContents

F3Q24earningspreview:ExpectEPSbeatwithkeydebatessurroundingiPhonedemand,AIinvestment,

Mac/iPadrefresh,andvaluation1

Keydebates5

iPhoneC2Q24shipments+1%yoy(IDC)and+7%(Canalys)9

Mac:C2Q24Mactrendslikelytoimprove;thirdconsecutivequarterofindustryPCshipmentgrowth12

iPad:NewiPadmodelsshoulddriveF3Q24recovery14

AppStore:Year-over-yearappspendingtrendsremainstrong14

AppleTV+:newStreamSaverbundletosupportsubscribergrowth15

TAC:AppleTACrevenueoutlookinfocusagainstthebackdropofregulatoryscrutiny17

Forex,capitalallocation,other19

Valuation:ConsumerStaplesearningsvisibilitywithTMTgrowthopportunity19

Thesissummary,rating,pricetarget,keyrisks21

Incomestatement24

DisclosureAppendix25

_

18July20243

GoldmanSachs

AppleInc.(AAPL)

iPadAirwithM2,iPadProwithM4).WeexpectMacrevenueincrease+13%yoyon

recentMaclaunches(i.e.,MacBookAir13”and15”withM3)whileWearables,Home,andAccessoriesshouldbemodestlydownyoy(-2%yoy),bene?tingfromaccessoriesattachedtotheaforementionediPadandMacBooklaunches.Servicesrevenueshouldgrow+15%yoydrivenbyservicespriceincreasesandcontinuedstrongAppStore

spending(+13%yoyperSensorTower).

Exhibit1:WeexpectAAPLtodeliveranin-linequarter

AAPLGSestimatev.consensusv.guidance($,millionsexceptpersharedata)

Guidanceupdatedasof5/2/2024

GSestimateConsensusComments/guidance

($,mn)

Sales

Grossprofit

OperatingexpensesOperatingincome

Otherincome(expense),net

EarningsbeforetaxTax

Taxrate

Netincome-GAAPDilutedEPS(GAAP)

Segmentinformation

iPhoneiPad

Mac

Wearables,HomeandAccessories

Products

Services

Totalrevenue

ProductsGrossProfitServicesGrossProfitGrossprofit

Productsgrossmargin(%)

Servicesgrossmargin(%)

Grossprofitmargin(%)

Operatingincomemargin(%)

Revenuebygeography

AmericasEurope

GreaterChinaJapan

RestofAsia-PacificTotalrevenue

_

Note:foreximpacttorevenuegrowth

Actual

$85,073$39,221$14,421$24,800 $50$24,850 $3,976 16.0%$20,874$1.36

$37,758 $7,130 $7,715 $8,126$60,729$24,345$85,073

$21,299$17,922$39,221

35.1%73.6%46.1%29.2%

$36,444$21,215$16,546 $5,062 $5,805$85,073(3%)

yoy?(%)4%

8% 7% 8%-119%9%

5%8%

-5%

23%

13%

-2%

0%

15%

4%

-1%20%8%

-0.3%3.1%1.6%1.0%

3%5%5%5%3%4%

FactSet

$84,082$38,736

$14,382

$24,354

($8)

$24,346$3,894

16.0%

$20,480$1.33

$38,691 $6,602 $7,015 $7,813$60,727$23,921$84,082

$21,278$17,222$38,736

35.0%72.0%46.1%29.0%

$37,465$20,692$15,663 $4,380 $5,669$84,082

yoy?(%)

3%+LSD%yoyinclusiveofforexheadwindof250bps6%

7%$14.3-$14.5bn6%

-97%$50mn7%

16%3%

6%

-2%

14%DD%revenuegrowth3%

-6%0%

13%13%revenuegrowth(similartoF1H24)

3%+LSD%yoyinclusiveofforexheadwindof250bps

-1%15%6%

-0.4%1.4%

1.6%45.5-46.5%grossmargins0.8%

6%2%(1%)(9%)1%3%

250bpheadwind

FactSetconsensusestimatesasof7/17/2024

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,FactSet

FortheSeptemberF4Q24Equarter,weforecastEPSof$1.55withrevenueof$93.6bn(+5%yoy),largelyin-linewithVisibleAlphaconsensusEPSof$1.56and

consensusrevenueof$93.6bn.Accordingly,weexpectAAPLtoguideF4Q24Eto

includeMSD%yoyrevenuegrowth,withiPhonerevenuedeclinesoffsetbyiPad,Mac,andWearablesrevenuegrowth&continuedmid-teensyoygrowthinServices.Our

F4Q24grossmarginsof45.7%wouldbedownslightlyrelativetoF3Q24butupyoy,bene?tingfromincreasingservicesmix.

18July20244

GoldmanSachsAppleInc.(AAPL)

Keydebates

Thepathto$9-$10ofEPS.WithAAPLstockup36%sinceitsF2Q24earningscallofMay2andup22%sinceWWDConJune10,nowtradingat29XF2026consensusEPSof$8.04,wearefocusedonthepotentialfora12-monthbullcaseof~$9-$10forward

EPS(v.GSe:$8.57/$9.59inF2026E/2027E).Inourview,AAPLEPSgrowthshould

acceleratefrom+0%inF2023to+12%CAGR(F2023-F2027)drivenbyanin?ectioninProductsrevenuegrowth(+5%CAGRv.-6%yoyinF2023A)andcontinuedmomentuminServices(+14%CAGRv.+9%inF2023A).TheprimarydriveroftheProductsrevenuein?ectionshouldbenewproductinnovation,includingAppleIntelligence,thatshould

increasedemandforallofApple’sproducts.

WeforecastiPhoneunitshipmentsof226/230/240/256/260mnunitsin

F2023A/24E/25E/26E/27Ewithmid-cycleshipmentsofapproximately~250mnunits(averageofF2021-30E).iPhoneshipmentsareafunctionofend-consumerdemand

iPhonesell-throughmadeupof(a)upgradingusers;(b)marketsharegainsorswitchersfromAndroid;and(c)?rstsmartphoneusers.Weestimatethatupgradersmake-up2/3ofiPhonesell-through,withswitchersat~30%,and?rstsmartphoneusersat<5%.

UpgradedemandlikelypeakedinF2021anddeclinedinF2022(iPhone14)andF2023

(iPhone15)onmoremutedinnovationfollowingstrongdemandduringthepandemic

period.UpgradedemandshouldimprovestartingwiththeiPhone16,bene?tingfrom

newproductinnovationthatincludesAppleIntelligenceintroducedoverthenextseveralyears(betafeaturesstartingfall2024)andiPhoneformfactorimprovementssuchas

largerscreensfortheiPhone16Pro&ProMaxandthinnerdevicesfortheiPhone17.

Exhibit2:TheiPhoneinstalledbaseisafunctionofnewuserswho(1)buyanewiPhoneastheir?rstsmartphone;(2)areswitchers

fromotherphones;or(3)buyausediPhone;andless(4)installedbasechurn

_

ActiveiPhoneinstalledbasede?nition

Exhibit3:CyclicalityiniPhonesell-through(~216mnunitsF17-F23average)hasprimarilybeenimpactedbyupgraderateswhilenew

iPhoneusers(e.g.,switchers,?rstsmartphone)havebeenmoreconsistent

iPhoneunitsell-throughmix(units,mn)

iPhoneunitsell-through(mn)

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

FY'2018FY'2019FY'2020FY'2021FY'2022FY'2023

UpgradersSwitchersFirstsmartphone

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

AppleAIcandriveanupliftiniPhoneshipmentsascustomerslooktoupgradetohardwarethatsupportsnewgenerativeAIfeatures.AppleIntelligence(seeour

WWDCreviewnoteformoreonAppleAI)willonlybeavailableforthelatestiPhonesincludingtheiPhone15ProandProMax,whichbothhavetheA17Proand8GBRAM.BasedonouranalysisofiPhoneshipmentsbymodelfromCanalys,therewere78mn

18July20245

AppleInc.(AAPL)

GoldmanSachs

iPhone15ProandProMaxphonesshippedglobally(C3Q23-C1Q24)or~9%ofthenewiPhoneinstalledbaseof<900mn(~6%ofthetotaliPhoneinstalledbaseof1.2bn).

GiventhatAppleIntelligencewillonlybeavailableinU.S.Englishinthefallof2024,theaddressablemarketforAI-drivenupgradesshouldbesmallerthantheglobalinstalled

base.IDCestimatesthattheNorthAmericaiPhoneinstalledbaseisapproximately170mnwithapproximately31mniPhone15ProandProMaxdevicessoldthroughC1Q24(18%ofthenewNorthAmericainstalledbase).Saiddifferently,thereare~136mn

devicesinNorthAmericathatwouldneedtobeupgradedtogetaccesstoAppleAIthisfall.AppleIntelligencewon’tbeavailableintheEUinC2024duetoregulatory

uncertaintiesandtherehavebeennoAI-partnersyetannouncedforChina.Importantly,alliPhone16scouldpotentiallysupportAppleIntelligenceinourview,withpress

reports(e.g.,9to5Mac)suggestingthattheiPhone16andPlusmodelscouldhave8GBRAM(upfrom6GBintheiPhone15andPlus)andanA18chipwithfasterNeural

Engines.

Exhibit4:<10%ofthetheglobaliPhoneinstalledbasehasthehardwaretosupportAppleAI

WorldwideiPhonenewinstalledbasebymodel,asofMarch2024

Exhibit5:Weestimatethattherewere~31mniPhonesinNorthAmerica(~19%ofnewinstalledbaseintheregion)thatcan

supportAppleAIasofMarch2024

NorthAmericaiPhoneinstalledbasebymodel,asofMarch2024

WorldwideiPhoneinstalledbaseby

78

32

generation(mn)

743

Mar-24

NorthAmericaiPhoneinstalledbaseby

~78mniPhone15Pro/ProMaxhavethehardwaretosupportAppleIntelligence

generation(mn)

~775mniPhoneintheglobalinstalledbasedonot

supportAppleIntelligence,including~32mnIPhone15&15Plusand~743mniPhone14orolders

iPhone15Pro/ProMaxiPhone15/Plus

iPhone14orolder

31

12

124

Mar-24

~31mniPhone15Pro/ProMaxhavethehardwaretosupportAppleIntelligence

~136mniPhoneintheNorthAmericainstalledbasedo

notsupportAppleIntelligence,including~12mnIPhone15&15Plusand~124mniPhone14orolders

iPhone15Pro/ProMaxiPhone15/Plus

iPhone14orolder

_

AssumesthatalliPhone15modelssoldinT9M(i.e.,sincelaunch)remainactiveintheinstalledbase

Source:Canalys,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

AssumesthatalliPhone15modelssoldinT9M(i.e.,sincelaunch)remainactiveintheinstalledbase

Source:Canalys,IDC,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

18July20246

WorldwideiPhoneinstalledbase&sell-in

(units,mn)

GoldmanSachs

AppleInc.(AAPL)

Exhibit6:WeestimatethatthatglobalnewiPhoneinstalledbase

hasgrownata~7%5-yrCAGRF18-23to~840mn(~1.2bnincludingusediPhones)whilenewunitsell-inhasonlygrown~1%overthe

sametimeperiod

WorldwideiPhonenewinstalledbaseandsell-in(units,mn)

Exhibit7:WeestimatethatNorthAmericaiPhoneinstalledbase

hasgrownata~5%5-yrCAGRC18-23to~167mnfornewiPhones(C2023)whilenewunitsell-inhasbeenlargely?atat~80mnunitsNorthAmericaiPhonenewinstalledbaseandsell-in(units,mn)

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

F2018-235-yrCAGR:

Newinstalledbase:+7%Unitssold:+1%

FY'2018FY'2019FY'2020FY'2021FY'2022FY'2023

50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%

iPhoneunitsshipped/newinstalledbase

iPhonenewinstalledbaseiPhoneunitssoldShipments/InstalledBase

NorthAmericaiPhoneinstalledbase&sell-in

200

180

160

140

(%)

(units,mn)

120

100

80

60

40

20

-

C2018-235-yrCAGR:

Newinstalledbase:+5%Unitssold:+0%

C2018

C2021C2022iPhoneunitssold

C2023

C2019C2020iPhonenewinstalledbase

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:IDC,Canalys

OpportunitiestoincreasepricesoniPhone.Applehasn’tincreasedpricesonthe

iPhonebaseentry-storagemodelsince2020whenitincreasedthepriceoftheiPhone12(64GB)to$799(v.$699fortheiPhone11with64GB).Insubsequentyears,Apple

hasincreasedstorageforthe$799basemodelto128GB(from64GBintheiPhone12)andRAMto6GB(from4GBintheiPhone12).GivenApple’sinvestmentsintheiPhonehardwareandiOSoperatingsystem,combinedwithcomponentcostin?ation,Apple

hasanopportunitytoincreaseiPhonepricesinordertopricemorecommensuratewiththevaluedeliveredtoconsumers.Beyondlike-for-likepriceincreases,wecontinuetobeimpressedbyApple’ssuccessindrivingamixshifttowardhigher-end(andhigher

_

margin)iPhones.Basedonouranalysis,theshareofNorthAmericaiPhoneshipmentsfromProandProMaxmodelshaveincreasedto71%intheiPhone15(2023/24)from61%intheiPhone12(2020/21).Weestimatethatthismixshift-alongwithade-facto$100priceincreasefortheloweststorageiPhone15ProMaxoption-contributedtoa~10%domesticaveragesellingpriceincreaseoverthose3years(Exhibit9).

Appleshouldbeabletocontinuetodriveamixshifttowardpremiummodels.

First,thereisawideninggapbetweenthebasemodelsandpremiummodels.For

instance,inadditiontoabettercamera(typicalfortheProandProMaxversionsrelativetobasemodels),theiPhone16ProandProMaxwillreportedly(see9to5Mac:iPhone

16iscoming,andthese?vefeatureswillbeworththewait)havelargerscreenswiththeProhavinga6.3”display(v.6.1”fortheiPhone15Pro)andProMaxhavinga6.9”

display(v.6.7”fortheiPhone15ProMax).Second,Appleisreportedly(seeTheInformation:ApplePlansaThinneriPhonein2025)launchingathinnerphonein

September2025alongsidetheiPhone17thatwillbepricedhigherthantheiPhoneProMax(iPhone15ProMaxstartsat$1200),whiledroppingtheiPhonePlus.Notably,theiPadProlaunchedinMay2024hasadepthof5.1mm,makingitthinnerthanthe

iPhone(iPhone15/Plus/Pro/ProMaxare7.80/7.80/8.25/8.25mm);thethinneriPadProcouldforeshadowamovetowardthinnerproductsacrossallofitsdevices.

18July20247

GoldmanSachs

AppleInc.(AAPL)

Exhibit8:NorthAmericaiPhoneshipmentshavemix-shiftedtowardsmorepremiummodelsinrecentgenerations...

NorthAmericaiPhoneunitsshippedbymodelbygeneration,?rstfourquarterspostlaunch

NorthAmericaunitsshippedinfirst4quarterspostlaunch

Mini

4.44.8

Plus

Pro

7.216.211.013.111.8

ProMax

11.714.811.317.718.9

Base

26.015.226.511.77.8

Generation

6.44.4

iPhone11iPhone12iPhone13iPhone14iPhone15*

Exhibit9:...whichhasdrivenanincreaseinprice/mix

NorthAmericaweightedaverageiPhoneASPbygenerationbasedon?rstfourquartersofshipments

ASPs(startingpriceforbasestoragelevel,$)

Base

$699$799$799$799$799

Mini

$699$699

Plus

Pro

$999$999$999$999$999

ProMax

$1,099$1,099$1,099$1,099$1,199

AvgASP

Generation

$851 $942 $894 $974$1,040

$899$899

iPhone11iPhone12iPhone13iPhone14iPhone15*

%ofNorthAmericaunitsshippedinfirst4quarterspostlaunch

Base

58%30%49%24%18%

Mini

9%9%

Plus

Pro

16%32%21%27%27%

Generation

13%10%

iPhone11iPhone12iPhone13iPhone14iPhone15*

*3quartersofshipmentdata

Source:Canalys,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

ProMax

26%29%21%36%44%

Source:Canalys,Companydata,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

MacBooktobene?tfromAppleAI,Walmartpartnership,andnewproduct

innovation.AccordingtoIDC,Macglobalshipmentsincreased21%yoyinC2Q24,

outpacingindustryPCshipmentsgrowthof3%yoy.Inourview,Macdemandlikelywillbene?tfromtheannouncementofAppleIntelligence,whichwillbeincludedinthe

upcomingmacOSSequoiaandprovidenewfeaturessuchasnewwritingtools(e.g.,writingassistance,summarizinglongtext),imagegeneration,andaSiriwithricher

languageunderstandingandpersonalcontextawareness.NewecosystemfeaturessuchasiPhonemirror