未來能源研究所-鋼鐵和鋁工業(yè)在產(chǎn)品層面的溫室氣體排放強度

GreenhouseGasEmissionsIntensitiesoftheSteelandAluminumIndustriesattheProductLevel

BrianP.FlanneryandJanW.Mares

Report24-13August2024

ResourcesfortheFuturei

AbouttheAuthors

BrianP.FlanneryisavisitingfellowatResourcesfortheFuture(RFF).Dr.FlanneryjoinedRFFin2012where

hecontinuesinvolvementinclimateandenergyissuesthatbeganwhenhejoinedExxon’sCorporate

Researchin1980.HeretiredfromExxonMobilCorporationin2011asScience,Strategy,andPrograms

Manager.AtExxon,heconductedandsupportedclimateresearch,andorganizedinternationalmeetingsonclimate-relatedscience,technology,economics,andpolicy.AsanobserverforindustryandcontinuingatRFF,hefollowedandreportedonIPCCassessmentsandnegotiationsundertheUNFrameworkConvention.At

Exxon,FlanneryplayedaleadershiproleincreatingtheJointProgramontheScienceandPolicyofGlobalChange(MIT)andtheGlobalClimateandEnergyProject(Stanford).

Flanneryhasservedonnumerouseditorialandadvisoryboards,amongthemStanfordUniversitySchoolof

EngineeringandAnnualReviewsofEnergyandEnvironmentandparticipatedinassessmentsbytheUSDOE(climatemodelingandscenarios),EPA(climateimpacts),andIPCCWorkingGroupIII.Heservedwithbusiness

associationsincludingtheInternationalChamberofCommerce(Vice-Chair,EnvironmentandEnergy

Commission),USCouncilforInternationalBusiness(Chair,InternationalEnergyWorkingGroup),andMajorEconomiesBusinessForum(Chair,TaskForceonBusinessEngagement).

BeforeExxon,FlannerypursuedacareerinastrophysicswithdegreesfromPrinceton(1970)andUCSantaCruz(PhD1974)andasapost-doctoralassociateattheInstituteforAdvancedStudyandassistantand

associateprofessoratHarvard.FlanneryiscoauthorofthereferencebookNumericalRecipes:TheArtofScientificComputing.

JanW.MaresisasenioradvisoratResourcesfortheFuture,wherehehasbeeninvolvedwithworkonenergyandenvironmentalissuessince2009.From2003to2009,hewasDeputyDirectorofthePrivateSectorOfficeoftheDepartmentofHomelandSecurity.DuringtheReaganAdministration,MareswasanAssistant

SecretaryofCommerceforImportAdministrationforaboutayear,aSeniorPolicyAnalystattheWhiteHouse,andforfouryearswasthreedifferentAssistantSecretariesofEnergyincludingforFossilEnergy.Before

enteringfederalservice,MareswaswithUnionCarbideCorporationforabout18years.Aboutnineyearsofthattenurewereinthelawdepartment,whereheworkedonantitrustcomplianceandpurchasingissues,aswellasspendingsevenyearsonissuesinvolvingUnionCarbide’soverseasactivities,andhebecamethe

InternationalCounsel.Theothernineyearsinvolvedbusinessresponsibilitiesinthechemicalsarea.TheyincludedleadinganeffortforthreeyearstocreateachemicalsjointventurewithaMiddleEastern

governmentcompanyandbeingtheoperations/profitmanagerforseveralgroupsofindustrialchemicals.

Fromearly1980untiljoiningtheDepartmentofEnergyin1981,hewasVicePresident-GeneralManageroftheEthyleneOxideDerivativesDivision.

GreenhouseGasEmissionsIntensitiesoftheSteelandAluminumIndustriesattheProductLevelii

Acknowledgments

Theauthorsbenefitedgreatlyfromdiscussionswithourcolleaguesandcoauthorsonrelatedpapers:JenniferA.HillmanandMatthewC.PorterfieldandtheirstudentsatGeorgetownUniversityLawCenter;stafffromanumberoftradeassociationsforenergy-intensiveindustries;andDavidBaileyandCatrinaRorkeatthe

ClimateLeadershipCouncil(CLC).WealsorecognizethesignificantcontributionofeditorAdrienneYoungtothisreportandothersinourseriesofworkonborderadjustments.FlanneryacknowledgesfinancialsupportfromtheCLCforresearchonborderadjustments.

AboutRFF

ResourcesfortheFuture(RFF)isanindependent,nonprofitresearchinstitutioninWashington,DC.Itsmissionistoimproveenvironmental,energy,andnaturalresourcedecisionsthroughimpartialeconomicresearchandpolicyengagement.RFFiscommittedtobeingthemostwidelytrustedsourceofresearchinsightsandpolicysolutionsleadingtoahealthyenvironmentandathrivingeconomy.

TheviewsexpressedherearethoseoftheindividualauthorsandmaydifferfromthoseofotherRFFexperts,itsofficers,oritsdirectors.

SharingOurWork

OurworkisavailableforsharingandadaptationunderanAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives4.0

International(CCBY-NC-ND4.0)license.Youcancopyandredistributeourmaterialinanymediumorformat;

youmustgiveappropriatecredit,providealinktothelicense,andindicateifchangesweremade,andyou

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information,visit

/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.

ResourcesfortheFutureiii

Contents

1.Background1

2.KeyPointsforDevelopingProductGGIValues2

3.Rangeof,andSourcesofDatatoDevelop,GGIsfromProductionofUnwroughtPrimaryandSecondary

AluminumandBasicOxygenFurnaceSteelandElectricArcFurnaceSteel4

A.Introduction4

B.RangesofGGIsfromtheProductionofAluminumandSteel5

C.Contributions(inPercent)toGGIofAluminumandSteelProductsfromVariousRawMaterials,

Electricity,andThermalEnergy16

D.SourcesofDataUsedtoDevelopGGIsforAluminumandSteelandTheirRawMaterials19

Appendix:BorderAdjustmentReportsandBlogs26

1.Background

Webeganourworkonborderadjustmentsnearlyadecadeago,becausewedidnotexpectthattheapproachtakenintheAmericanCleanEnergyandSecurityActtoprovideprotectionfordomesticproducersagainst

importsfromcountrieswithoutgreenhousegas(GHG)controlpolicieswouldbeacceptabletotheWorld

TradeOrganization(WTO).In2018,togetherwithGeorgetownUniversityLawSchoolprofessorsJenniferA.HillmanandMathewC.Porterfield,wedevelopedaWTO-compatibleF

ramework1

forborderadjustmentsin

thecontextofaUSdomesticcarbontax.AsacentralconceptoftheFramework,weproposedaGreenhouseGasIndex(GGI)toaccountforthecarbondioxideequivalentemissions(CO2e)requiredtomanufacture

coveredGHG-intensiveproducts.Foragivenmanufacturingfacilityoroperation,e.g.,toproducesteelor

petrochemicals,GGIaccountsforGHGemissionsoccurringbothfromproductionoperations,aswellasthe

emissionsrequiredtoproduceGHG-intensiveproductspurchasedfromsuppliersofelectricity,fuelsusedtogeneratethermalenergyandrawmaterials.Formanyyears,USfacilitiesthatemitmorethan25,000tonnesCO2eannuallyhavedeterminedandreportedtheirGHGemissionstoEPA.KeyinnovationsintheFrameworkincludethetreatmentofemissionsfromproductsacquiredthroughthemanufacturer’ssupplychain(ina

fashionsimilartovalue-addedtaxes)andthedesignofstraightforwardprocedurestoallocateemissionsfromafacilitytotheGHG-intensiveproductsitmanufactures.Ourapproach,GGI,isconsistentwithstandards

developedbytheInternationalOrganizationforStandardization(ISO).Inaconsistent,comprehensivefashion,GGIappliestoGHG-intensiveproductsinallsectorsoftheeconomy,includingthosethatproducealuminum,iron,andsteel.Theappendixtothisreportcontainsalistwithlinkstoourblogsandreportsonborder

adjustmentsandtheGHGintensityofproducts.

Overthepastseveralyears,wehaveinteractedwithexpertsfromacademia,nationalgovernments,

internationalorganizations,andimportantly,withoveradozensectoraltradeassociations.Basedonthese

interactions,discussions,andourownrelevantexperience,webelievethatourapproachisfeasiblefor

industryandrelevanttovariousapplicationsthatinvolveGHG-intensiveproducts,including,forexample,

borderadjustments,procurementpolicies,andcorporatereporting.Inparticular,GGIcouldapplytoproductsofUSandforeignmanufacturersinthealuminum,iron,andsteelsectors.

Thisreportupdates,expandsupon,andshouldbeconsideredasareplacementforthetestimonyand

submissionsweprovidedtheUSInternationalTradeCommissionrelatedtoitshearingonDecember7,2023.

ItadditionallyservesasamodificationandexpansionofthemodulesforIron,Steel,andFerroalloysandfor

AluminaandPrimaryandSecondaryUnwroughtAluminuminour2022report:TheGreenhouseGasIndexfor

Productsin39IndustrialSectors.

WearecurrentlydevelopingandwillpublishtheestimatedrangeofGGIsformanyproductsinthemodules

for39industrialsectorsinour2022reportbecauseoftheUSITChearingandanticipatingfurthergovernmentinterestinthissubject.

Thetablesbelowprovideestimated,illustrativelowandhighGGIvaluesforrepresentativebasicproductsinthealuminumandsteelsectors.ResultsareillustrativebecausemanufacturersintheUnitedStatesand

aroundtheglobeutilizeanenormousvarietyofprocesses,sourcesofenergy,andrawmaterialsinfacilitieswithdifferingefficienciestocreatesimilarproducts.

1Flannery,BrianP.,JenniferA.Hillman,JanW.Mares,andMatthewC.Porterfield,2020.FrameworkProposalforaUSUpstreamGHGTaxwithWTO-CompliantBorderAdjustments:2020Update.Washington,DC:ResourcesfortheFuture.

/publications/reports/framework-proposal-us-upstream-ghg-tax-wto-compliant-border-adjustments-

2020-update/

ResourcesfortheFuture1

GreenhouseGasEmissionsIntensitiesoftheSteelandAluminumIndustriesattheProductLevel2

2.KeyPointsforDevelopingProductGGIValues

1.FacilitiesandoperationsofUSfirmsproducingatleast25,000tonnesperyearofGHGemissionsdetermineandreportthemannuallytoEPA.Similarreportingprogramsexistinmany,butnotall,nationsthatexporttotheUnitedStates.

2.FirmslikeCRUandinternationaltradeassociationsforsteelandaluminumindustriesexistthat

collectandpublishemissionsintensityinformationonaverageforbasicoxygensteel,EAFsteel,andprimaryaluminumforvariouscountriesorgroupsofcountries.

3.TheprocedurestodetermineGGIaresimilartothoseusedinothercontextstodeterminevalue-

addedtaxes(VATs)forspecificproducts.Here,theyaccountforthecumulativeemissionsofGHGsrequiredtocreateGHG-intensiveproductsinaparticularfacility,includingboththosefrom

operationsofthemanufacturerandfromGHG-intensiveproductspurchasedfromsuppliers.

Essentially,thisisacradle-to-gateapproachforGHGemissions.

4.TotheextenttheUSgovernmentwantstodevelopenergyintensitydataforexporterstotheUS,forthepurposeofimporttariffs,therelevantUSassociationscouldbeexpectedtoassistthe

Administratorindevelopingthatinformation.NotethatmanydomesticfirmshaveoperationsoutsidetheUSwhichgivethemaddedperspectivesconcerningimports,andAmericanfirmsarevulnerabletoimportsfromcountrieswithweakGHGcontrolmeasures.NotealsothatexportstoothernationsfromUSfirmsarevulnerabletosuchcompetition.

5.All13tradeassociationsthatwetalkedto,includingsteelandaluminum,indicatedthatourGGI

conceptcouldbeimplementedbytheirmembers.ThedatatodetermineGGIareavailable.The

procedurestodetermineGGIssimplyinvolveaccounting,albeitinvolvingagreatdealofinformation,muchofitnotcurrentlypubliclyreported.

6.Thesteelandaluminumcompanies,laborunions,associations,suppliers,andcommunitiesand

regionswheretheyoperatewillinsistthatanycarbontaxorotherGHG-controlpoliciesthataffect

thecompetitivenessbothofthesebusinessesandtheircoveredproductsmustbeimposedonsimilarimportedproductsandrebatedforcoveredexportedUSproducts.

7.Itisimportanttofocusonemissionsassociatedwithproductsofspecificfacilitiesandcompanies,

because,asourresearchandthefollowingtablesdemonstrate,GGIvaluesofidenticalproducts

producedindifferentfacilitiescanvarysignificantly,notonlyforfacilitiesofdifferentcompanies,butevenamongfacilitiesofthesamecompany.UsinganaveragevaluetocharacterizeGHGemissionsassociatedwithproductsofanentiresectororforgroupsofproductswilldisruptcompetitionbothwithinasectorandbetweensectors.Forexample,productsmadefromplastics,aluminum,orsteelmaycompeteinapplications,e.g.,intheautomotivesector.Forthesereasons,itwillbeimportanttodesignmetricsforemissionsandallocationtoproductsthataresimilaracrossallcoveredsectors.

8.WenotethatimplementationofprocedurestodetermineGGIwouldbefacilitatedifallmanufacturersofGHG-intensiveproducts(includingelectricity)wererequiredtodetermineandreportGGIvaluesfortheirproductstotheircustomersandregulators,andthattheinformationshouldbepublicly

available.Inparticular,thiswouldsimplifythetreatmentofGGIforpurchasesfromsuppliers.

Otherwise,manufacturerswouldneedtorelyontheirownestimatesorthird-partydeterminationsofGGIforsuchpurchases,ratherthanthosedevelopedbythesuppliersthemselveswithdirect

information.

9.Resultsshouldbeviewedaspreliminaryandillustrativeformanyotherreasons.Becausewedonothaveinformationforspecificfacilities,estimatesarebasedonvariousaveragesforkeyindustrial

processesandemissionsfromsuppliers.Also,theinformationderivesfromavarietyofnational,

sectoral,andprivatesourcesusingdifferentmethodsandcoveringdifferenttimeperiods.The

sourcesspantwodecadesormore.Duringthattime,manymanufacturershavesignificantly

improvedtheefficiencyoftheiroperationsormayhaveincreasedemissionstosatisfyrequirements

ResourcesfortheFuture3

forcleanerorsaferproducts.Nonetheless,theestimatesdoindicatehowGGIvalueswouldbe

determinedgivenappropriateinformationforaspecificfacilityandgiveasenseoftheanticipatedrangeofvalues.

10.Besidesusingdifferentsuppliersandprocedurestomanufactureproducts,facilitiesalsodiffer;forexample:insize,age,maintenance,operatingpractices,andefficienciesthataffecttheGGIvaluesoftheirproducts.Forproductslikeprimaryaluminumandelectricarcfurnacesteel,theGGIof

electricitytheyusehasamajorimpactontheGGIoftheproductandontherangeofGGIsofsuchproductsfromdifferentmanufacturers.Forproductslikesecondaryaluminumandelectricarc

furnacesteel,theGGIissubstantiallyimpactedbytheamountofscrapused.(NotethatintheFrameworkweproposed,scrapisassumedtohaveaGGIofzero.)

11.ManyofthesesameissueswillaffectthedatathatwillbeprovidedtotheUSITCthroughits2024

surveyofindividualproducers.Theessentialtakeawaysarethatthereisnouniquevalueforthe

greenhousegasintensityofspecificproductsandthatvaluesshouldbedeterminedforproductsofspecificfacilities.Amongotherissues,ourfullreports(listedintheAppendix)describeapproachesthatmightbeusedtodefineaverageordefaultvaluestobeusedforproductsimportedfromnationscurrentlywithoutdetailedrequirementsforGHGreportingbyfirmsandfacilitiestoimplementthe

regulations,especiallyduringinitial,start-upyears.

12.Ourdetailedreportsprovideobservationsconcerningotherissuesthatmayberelevanttothe

determinationanduseofGGIvaluesforproducts.Forexample,thereareseveralconcerns

surroundingthetimelinessandavailabilityofdataintheUnitedStatesandothernations.Currently,USfacilitiesreportGHGemissionsannuallyinAprilfollowingtheinventoryyear.Informationand

procedureswillneedtobeupdated,likelyannually.GGIvaluesarenotstatic;theywillchangeas

industrialprocesses,rawmaterials,procedures,technology,products,andmarketsevolve.Borderadjustmentproceduresshouldbedesignedtopromotecontinuousimprovement.Forexample,theyshouldincludeappealsprocessesforrelevantparticipantstochallengedeclaredGGIvaluesthat

appeartobeincorrect,incomplete,orfraudulent.

13.LowerGGIvaluescontainestimatesusingtheleastGHG-intensiveinputsandprocesses,e.g.,usingnaturalgasratherthancoalforthermalenergy,andusinghydropowerornuclearenergyratherthancoaltogenerateelectricity.ThehighervaluesforGGIareestimatesusingthemostGHG-intensiveinputs,e.g.,usingcoaltoproduceelectricity,moreGHG-intensiverawmaterialsandprocesses,andlowerprocessingefficiencies.

14.Resultsprovidedinthisreportareillustrative,becausemanufacturersintheUnitedStatesand

aroundtheglobeutilizeanenormousvarietyofprocesses,sourcesofenergy,andrawmaterialsinfacilitieswithvaryingenergyandmaterialsefficienciestocreatesimilarproducts.Theyarealso

IllustrativebecausethedatausedIsfromdifferentyearsandareas.Consequently,listedGGIvaluesdonotrepresentthefullrangeofpossibleoutcomes.Asasteptowardfurthercharacterizingthe

uncertaintyinGGI,thisreportprovidesadditionalcalculationsofGGIrangesfortheaboveproducts

thatincorporatesomeadditionalsourcesthataffectthepotentialranges.Thisalsoisafurtherupdatetoourpreviouswork.ThetextinSectionDIncludesdataneededtocalculateGGIrangesbutdoes

notincludecalculationsofallrangesofGGIsinthetables.

GreenhouseGasEmissionsIntensitiesoftheSteelandAluminumIndustriesattheProductLevel4

3.Rangeof,andSourcesofDatatoDevelop,GGIsfromProductionofUnwroughtPrimaryand

SecondaryAluminumandBasicOxygenFurnaceSteelandElectricArcFurnaceSteel

A.Introduction

OurhearingstatementandsubmissionstotheUSITCincludedalistofrangesofGGIsforfouraluminumandsteelproducts.Afurtherdevelopmentandexplanationofthoserangesisprovidedhere.Inthecourseof

preparingthisupdatedreport,theGGIrangesforsomeoftheproductsanddeterminationsdeviateslightlyfromthoseinthesubmissions:

BelowareestimatedrangesofGGIforsteelandaluminumproducts.LowerestimatesassumetheleastGHG-intensiveinputsandprocesses,e.g.,usingnaturalgasratherthancoalforthermalenergy,andhydrorather

thancoalforelectricity.HigherestimatesassumelowerefficienciesandmoreGHG-intensiveinputsandprocesses:

Product

LowGGI

HighGGI

(tonnesCO2equivalentpertonneofproduct)

BOFRawSteel

2.09

3.04

EAFRawSteel

0.019

0.645

PrimaryUnwroughtAluminum

2.12

19.64

SecondaryUnwroughtAluminum

(100%scrap)

0.241

0.534

Twosetsoftablesanddatasourcesfollow.SectionBcontainsestimatedhighandlowGGIstoproducesomealuminumandsteelproducts.Theestimatesincludeemissionsbothfromoperationsofthemanufacturerandthoseassociatedwithproductspurchasedfromsuppliers,includingcontributionsfromGHG-intensiveraw

materials,electricity,thermalenergyandGHGprocessemissions.SectionCindicatesthepercentage

contributionfrommajorinputstoproductionacrosstheGGIrangesestimatedforaluminumandsteel

products.SectionDprovidesdetaileddiscussionsandsourcesforthedatausedinthisanalysis.PartofthetextcomesfromthemodulesforvariousproductsintheRFFreportTheGreenhouseGasIndexforProducts

in39IndustrialSectors(September27,2022

2

),withtherestofthebackgroundinformationcomingfromothersources.SomeofthecopiedtextfromthemodulesintheRFFreporthasbeenmodifiedtouserangesofdatathatwereavailableinsteadofaverages.

Datausedinthisreportcomesfromavailablestudiespublishedoverthepast20yearsandmore.Thus,the

estimatesaresurelynotaccuratein2024,afteralltheyearsofeffortstoimproveefficiencies.TheaveragesoftheserangesofGHGemissionsareprobablyhigherthanaveragesthatwouldbedeterminedbasedoncurrentdata,becausethedatausedintheserangescomesfrommanydifferentyears.However,iftheproducthas

beenheavilyregulatedoverthepast20years,inwaysthatrequiredmoreenergyuse,e.g.,toreduce

emissionsorimprovesafety,theaveragesofcurrentGHGemissionsmaybehigherthantheonesprovidedhere.

B.RangesofGGIsfromtheProductionofAluminumandSteel

ThefollowingtablesprovideanindicationofthepossiblerangesofGGIsforaluminumandsteelandthe

variousrawmaterials,thermalenergy,andelectricitytomanufacturethem.Wheretheunderlyingdatawasinarange,oneextremewasusedforthelowestdatapointwhiletheotherextremeforthehighestdatapoint.

Similarly,whereelectricitywasused,hydrowasassumedforthelowestdatapointcaseandcoalwasassumedforthehighestdatapointcase.Wheredataisavailableforthermalenergy,generallynaturalgaswasassumedforthelowestdatapoint,andfueloilorcoalwasusedforthehighestdatapoint.Wherearangeofefficiencyorusageofrawmaterialisavailable,thelowestoftherangeorusagewasassumedforthelowestdatapointandthehighestoftherangeorusagewasassumedforthehighestdatapoint.

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/publications/working-papers/the-greenhouse-gas-index-for-products-in-39-industrial-

sectors/

ResourcesfortheFuture5

GreenhouseGasEmissionsIntensitiesoftheSteelandAluminumIndustriesattheProductLevel6

BauxiteMining

LowGGI

HighGGI

Electricity(kWh/tonnebauxite)55

PowersourceHydroCoal

Power(tonnesCO2e/tonnebauxite)00.005

Thermalenergy(tonnesfueloil/tonnebauxite)0.00150.0015

GGIforfueloil(tonnesCO2e/tonnefueloil)3.503.82

Thermalenergy(tonnesCO2e/tonnebauxite)0.00530.0057

0.0053

0.0107

GGI(CO2e/tonnebauxite)

Alumina,basedon2and3tonnesofbauxite

LowGGI

HighGGI

Bauxite2MT3MT

BauxiteGGI(tonnesCO2e/tonnealumina)0.0110.032

Electricity(MWh/tonnealumina)0.6220.622

PowersourceHydroCoal

Power(tonnesCO2e/tonnealumina)00.622

ThermalenergyNaturalgasFueloil

Thermalenergy(tonnesCO2e/tonnealumina)0.2070.285

GGI(tonnesCO2e/tonnealumina)0.2180.939

ResourcesfortheFuture7

Anode

Rawmaterials(assumesrawmaterialis100percentpetcokewith90.5percentC)

?Petroleumcoke:676kgrawmaterial/tonneanode

?Hardcoalpitch:148kgrawmaterial/tonneanode

?Recycledanodebuts:214kgrawmaterial/tonneanode

?Totalcarbonfromrawmaterial:1.038tonnesC/tonneanode

LowGGI

HighGGI

Rawmaterials(tonnesCO2e/tonneanode)3.443.44

Thermalenergy(MJ/tonne)3.5853.585

EnergysourceNaturalgasCoal

Thermalenergy(tonnesCO2e/tonneanode)0.1810.317

Electricity(kWh)124.2124.2

PowersourceHydroCoal

Electricity(tonnesCO2e/tonneanode)00.124

GGI(tonnesCO2e/tonneanode)3.623.88

AnodeeffectPFCs

GGI(tonnesCO2e/tonnealuminum)0.160.16

GreenhouseGasEmissionsIntensitiesoftheSteelandAluminumIndustriesattheProductLevel8

Electrolysis

LowGGI

HighGGI

Elec