高盛-中國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)-Key focusesdebates post-results season;refreshing sub-sector preference09062024

5September2024|11:12PMHKT

NavigatingChinaInternet

Keyfocuses/debatespost-resultsseason;refreshingsub-sectorpreference

WiththeChinainternetresultsseasonconcluded,wherecompanieshavebroadly

RonaldKeung,CFA

+852-2978-0856|ronald.keung@

reportedpro?tbeatsfor2Q,yetforwardquartertop-linerevisionshavebeen

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

trimmedonmacro/competition(resultinginneutral-to-negativesharepricereactions

LincolnKong,CFA

+852-2978-6603|lincoln.kong@

post-prints,withtheexceptionfromMeituan),wehighlightthelatestkeyareasof

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

investorfocuses/debatesandoverallsectorkeythemes.Werefreshoursub-sector

TimothyZhao

+852-2978-2673|timothy.zhao@

preferenceaccordingly,where1)gamesremainsourtoppreferredsub-sectoron

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

thevisibilityofTencentGames’revenuegrowthaccelerationacrossdomesticand

SteveQiu

+852-2978-2672|steve.qiu@

int’l,followedby2)localservices(from#3to#2)onMeituan’sleadershipin

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

favorablemarketlandscapeandfurtherroomforonlineshift,then3)internet

EuniceLiu

+852-2978-7472|eunice.liu@

verticals(downto#3)onleadingplatformswithtakerateexpansionvisibilityand

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

undemandingvaluationsafterinternetverticals’sharepricepullbacks.Welayoutour

LuqingZhou

+852-3465-4207|luqing.zhou@

keyBuy-ratedstockideasbysub-sector:Games:Tencent(ontheConvictionlist);

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

Localservices:Meituan;Internetverticals:Xiaomi,FullTruckAlliance,TME;eCom

LeonWang

+852-2978-1414|leon.wang@

ads(upto#4from#5):Alibaba7Xex-cash,PDDonvaluation/risk-rewardafter30%declinesat5Xex-cash.

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

WehighlighttheeightChinaInternetkeythemes(withslightadjustmentsvs.ourearliermid-yearupdate)thatcontinuedtoplayoutintherecentresultsseason,with

companiesshiftingfocustoAPRU/takerates/pro?tabilityonthebackof

maturingonlinepenetrationandloweringsubsidiesonstabledomesticmarket

landscapes(thelikesofTencentMusic’ssubscriptionrevenues,MeituanFood

Delivery,FullTruckAlliance);?ghtbackoftheincumbents(Alibaba,Meituan,

_

TencentGamesallillustratedacceleratedgrowthin2Q),yetwithmoreintensi?edcompetitionwithineCommerceasdisruptorsrespond;focusingonnextgrowthdrivers,goingglobal&AI/Cloudwithfurtheropex(int’leCom)/capex(AI)

investments,yetnotinggeopoliticaluncertainties,whilecontinuedshareholderreturnshavebeensupportingsectorvaluationsparticularlyatAlibabaandTencent.

Keyinvestordebates/focuseshavemostlysurrounded:(1)Wheredovaluationsstandforthesectorandonshareholderreturns?(2)WhatshouldinvestorsdofromherewitheCommerce,givenPDD’sstrategychangeyetoveralldiscounted

valuations?(3)WhatistheinvestorpushbackontopideasTencentandMeituan?And(4)Whatarethenextdrivers/catalystsforthesectortillthenextprints?More

GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthe?rmmayhaveacon?ictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthis

report.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcerti?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaf?liatesarenotregistered/quali?edasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.

GoldmanSachsNavigatingChinaInternet

TableofContents

Fine-tuningourChinaInterneteightkeythemes(mid-yearupdate)6

RefreshingChinaInternetsub-sectorpreference&assessingkeystockideas8

Keythemesfrom2Qresultsand3Qoutlook:topics/highlightsbysub-sector10

Updateonsharebuybacks/shareholderreturns19

DisclosureAppendix23

_

5September20242

GoldmanSachsNavigatingChinaInternet

detailswithin.

Wheredovaluationsstandforthesectorandonshareholderreturns?

Chinainternetstockshaveremainedresilient(KWEB?atMoM)inthepast1month

(following-12%retreatsinceearlyJune)whereshareholderreturnpoliciesandspeci?cfund?ows(e.g.anticipationofAlibaba’sSouthboundConnect)havesupportedshare

priceperformancedespiteweakmacro/consumptiontrends.Valuationsremain

divergentbetweencompanieswithinmorefavorablemarketlandscapes(Tencent,

Meituan,TencentMusicatGARPvaluations)whilehighlycompetitivesectorslike

eCommercehaveseenvaluationsfurthercompressing,withAlibaba/PDD/JD/VIPSat9X/8X/7X/5X2024-25ave.P/Es.Shareholderreturnsintheformofbuybacks/dividends

continuetobeafocus,withlast12-monthshareholderreturnsamountingto

3%/8%/0%/2%/11%ofmarketcapforTencent/Alibaba/PDD/Meituan/JDamongstthelargernames,withthelackofshareholderreturnpoliciesinPDDbeingananomaly.

WhatshouldinvestorsdofromherewitheCommerce,givenPDD’sstrategychangeyetoveralldiscountedvaluations?

Whileweseesigni?cantroomforvaluationrepairforChinaeCommerceona1-3yearhorizon,weacknowledgealackofimmediatecatalystsinthenextfewmonthsforanoverallsectorre-ratinguntilweseeclearerconsumptionrecoverytrends/further

stabilizationofmarketsharesbetweenplayers.The?ghtbackofincumbentswith

encouragingGMVaccelerationatAlibaba,alongsideresponsesfromPDD/Douyin,willlikelyleadtoanintensi?cationofGMVcompetitioninthenear-term.WithPDD’sshiftinmonetizationmindset(notfocusingonpro?ts,increasingmerchantrebatesanduser

subsidies),weexpectslightlyfasterPinduoduodomesticGMVgrowth,whileAlibaba

willcontinuetostrivetomaintainsimilartoonlineindustryGMVgrowthrates(with

Taobaotakeratesimprovinggiventhelowlevelofmonetizationvs.Tmall/Pinduoduo),

andSFVplayergrowthslowingduetomaturinglive-streamingeCommercepenetration.AlsoseeourlatesttakeonPlannedadditionofWeChatPayinTaobao-Tmallplatforms

couldopenupfurtherpartnerships(link),andtheoptionalityweseeforTaobao-Tmallto

_

haveaMiniProgramswithintheWeChatecosystemthatcouldbroadenTaobao-Tmall’suserbaseandincreasepurchase/conversion.

WhatistheinvestorpushbackontopideasTencentandMeituan?

Chinagameshasremainedrelativelyresilientandcontinuestobeourtoppreferred

sub-sectorgivenre-acceleratinggrowthatTencentGamesoffsettingsofter?ntech

growth.WeliftourpreferenceforlocalservicestoNo.2onourexpectationsofsteadyvolumegrowthwithanimprovedin-storecompetitivelandscapeandcontinued

narrowingofnewinitiativeslosses.Keyinvestorpushbackhasbeenonthealready

concentratedinvestorpositioningintoTencent,thesoft?ntechgrowthoutlookon

alreadyhighmarketshare,andanypotentialdownsiderisktoMeituanfooddelivery

volumegrowthinto4Qifmacroweakensfromhere.SeeourrecentNDRtakeaways

withTencent’sChiefStrategyOf?cerMr.JamesMitchell(link)where,comingoutofthemeeting,weremainedcon?dentonTencentmanagement’sclearstrategiesacrosseachbusinesslineandbelieveTencentremainsoneofthemostvisibleandsustainablepro?t

5September20243

GoldmanSachsNavigatingChinaInternet

compoundingset-upsamongstChinainternetmegacaps.

Whatarethenextdrivers/catalystsforthesectortillthenextprints?

Septemberconsumption/parcel/macrotrendswillbecloselywatched,alongside

upcomingUSelectionsonanygeopoliticalriskstoChinacompanies’AI/cross-borderopportunities.ForGames,mDnFgrossingtrends(whereAugdecaytrendsarewell

withinexpectationsandremainingresilient),andongoingdomestic/Supercellgrossingtrendswillbekey.

Exhibit1:EarningssummaryandmarketreactionsforTencent,Alibaba,Pinduoduo,Meituan

PricingasofSep3

2Q24earningsresultiscomparedwithGSe,and3Q24outlookisbasedonchangesinV.A.Consensus.Source:Datastream,VisibleAlphaConsensusData,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit2:WebelieveChinaInternetvaluationsarehighlycorrelatedwithsalesgrowthandmoresensitivetotoplinerevision(vs.

earningsrevision)

ChinaInternet2024/25Esalesgrowthvs.PE

_

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

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GoldmanSachsNavigatingChinaInternet

Exhibit3:AsiaInternetcompstable

PricingasofSep3

_

Targetpriceson12mtimeframes.

Source:Datastream,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

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GoldmanSachsNavigatingChinaInternet

TheauthorswouldliketothankDamianXieforhiscontributionstothisreport.

Fine-tuningourChinaInterneteightkeythemes(mid-yearupdate)

Exhibit4:8keythemesandimplicationsformajorChinainternetnames(post2Qresults)

KeythemesforChinainternet-2024AlibabaPinduoduoJDTencentNetEaseKuaishouMeituan

1.Maturingonlinepenetrationandpeakingtimespent,shiftingfocustowardstake

rates/APRU

2.Fightback/re-accelerationingrowthofincumbentsateCommerce/local

services/games,intensifiedeCommercecompetition

Fiercertraffic/userengagement□competitiongivenalreadyhighonlinepenetrationforeCommerce,partlyoffsetbytakerateexpansionpotential

andincreasingemphasisonlivestreamingtoimproveusertimespent/engagement

FightbackofincumbentsmeetingwithresponsefromdisruptorsforGMV

growth,andtheincrementalmarketsharedynamics,asBABArepositions

itsnextphaseoffocustobeonimprovementofmonetizationfollowing

stabilizationofGMVshare,whilePDDacceleratesGMVgrowthonuser

subsidiesandbyrebatingmerchants'technologyservicefeesbacktothem

Timespentpeaking,and

behind#1Douyinwith

#3TencentVideo

Accountcatchingup,

partlyoffsetbytakerate

expansion

Games'market

Localservice(esp.in-store)couldstillbenefit

fromfurtheronlinepenetration

consolidation&ARPU

expansion;VideoGames'market

AccountrampupconsolidationandARPUcould□drivehigheruserexpansiontocontinue

stickinesswithintheTencentecosystem.

Stabilizedin-store

competitivelandscape

asDouyinseeksa

balancebetweengrowthandprofitability

Tencent'sdomestic

games□thatcouldreturnto□growth□from2Q24Eonmonetization&new

games□pipeline

3.Likelycontinuedgeopoliticalscrutinyforthe"goingglobal"theme,asheadinginto

majorelectionsatWesterncountriesin2H24

4.Anormalizing

domestic□regulatory□environment,supportinplatformgrowth

Temutocontinueits

globalrampupandwith

improvingUE

Internationalization strategy,AliCloud,AliExpress,Lazada,

Trendyol

Potentialpolicyrisksrelatedtolocalretail

protectionandchangestoimportduties(current

deminimistax)

Increasedclarity/potentialgovernmentsupportonplatformbusinessesdomestically;potentialregulationonlivestreamingeCommerce

Overseas□expansionasagrowthdriver,outpacindomesticmarket

Potentialamendmentinthefinalversionof

MeasuresfortheAdministrationofOnlineGamesissuedbyNPPA

Kuaishouconstantly

cleaningup

livestreamingcontent

amidregulationrisk;

potentialregulationon

livestreaming

eCommerce

ExpansionintoHKin

2023(43%marketshare

in1Q24)andpotential

entranceintomore

regions(SaudiArabia

etc)

Potentialprogressonridersocialinsurance

5.Increasingvalue-consciousconsumers

Strategicshiftof"returningtoTaobao"

Value-for-moneyofferingswhile

increasingthemixofbrandedproducts

Promoteamore

balanced1P/3P

ecosystemtorebuildpricecompetitiveness

Paymentbusiness

impactedbydecreasing

averagetransaction

value

Promotionoflower-

pricedqualitygoodsand

highermixofKwai

brands/white-labelvs.

peers

Concernsaroundmacro

impactonfooddelivery

business;Meituan

activelyexpandingvalue-

for-moneyofferings

6.AdtechupgradesfromClick-basedtoSales-based

Gradualroll-outofsite-widemarketingtoolin2HFY25E,offsetting

Taobao-Tmall

unfavorablemixshift

Furthercombiningsite-

widemarketingand

standardizedmarketing

toolsintomerchandise

marketing

Introductionof

Renyimenone-click

marketingtool(3P

revenuemixrathersmall

vs.1P),yetnotinarush

tomonetize

Increasedcontribution

fromWeixin’sclosed-

loopadvertising

ecosystem(accounted

for>50%ofWeixinadsrevenueasof3Q23)

IntroductionofSite-wide

marketinginearly-2023;

improvementofe-com

infrastructure

7.Re-accelerationofcloudrevenuegrowthover2H24drivenbypubliccloud/GenAI

_

computingdemand,incrementalcapexinvestment

AnnouncedTongyi

Qianwen,AliCloudakey

infrastructurebeneficiary

andGAItodriveits

publiccloudgrowth;

Holds36%stakein

Moonshot

LaunchedLLM"Yanxi"inmid-2023

SeesGenerativeAIasgrowthmultiplier.

Furtherintegrationwithin

Wechatecosystem;

HoldsstakeinZhipuAI

andBaichuan,etc

Adoptioningamedevelopment

Launchedvideo

generationmodel"Kling"

andimagegeneration

model"Kolors"

AcquiredAIcompanyLightYear

8.Continuous□effortsinshareholderreturns

Announcementof

annualdividendand

specialdividendfor

FY24;Issuanceof

US$4.5bnconvertible

bondtofundshare

repurchase

Noshareholderreturn

policyintheforeseeable

future

Announcementof

annualdividendin2023;

IssuanceofUS$2bn

convertiblebondtofund

sharerepurchase;

Announcedanew

US$5bnshare

repurchaseprogram

Intendedtoatleast

doubleitsshare

repurchaseto

HK$100bn(US$12.8bn)

in2024

Ongoingshare

repurchaseand

quarterlydividend

Announcedanew

HK$16bnshare

repurchaseprogram

overthenext36months

Announcedanew

US$1bnshare

repurchaseprogram

RelativelymorebenefitwithinChinainternet

RelativelymorenegativeimpactwithinChinainternet

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

5September20246

GoldmanSachsNavigatingChinaInternet

Exhibit5:Post2Q24consensusrevisionofrevenue,EPS,keydriversamongChinaInternet(rankedbymarketcap)

ForBABAisFY25E,restare2024E;ForBABAvaluationisFY25-26Ebased

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,VisibleAlphaConsensusData

_

Exhibit6:ConsensusRevenuerevision(%)ofselectedcoveragecompanies

Exhibit7:ConsensusEPSrevision(%)ofselectedcoveragecompanies

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,VisibleAlphaConsensusData

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,VisibleAlphaConsensusData

5September20247

GoldmanSachsNavigatingChinaInternet

Exhibit8:Sharepriceperformanceby1-mnth/3-mnth/YTD/1-yearwithinourChinaInternetcoverage

(SharepricesasofSep3)

Source:Datastream,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

_

RefreshingChinaInternetsub-sectorpreference&assessingkeystockideas

Exhibit9:Wecontinuetoprefergamesandliftlocalservices.Welowerinternetverticalsandeducationslightly,butseepotentialforeCommercein2H24givensigni?cantlydiscountedvaluations

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

OurkeyBuyideasbysub-sectorpreference:

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GoldmanSachsNavigatingChinaInternet

Games:Tencent;Localservices:Meituan;Internetverticals:Xiaomi,FullTruckAlliance,

TME;eComads:PDD,Alibaba

Amongstthemega-/large-caps:

nTencent:Tencentremainsoneofthemostvisibleandsustainablepro?tgrowth

set-upsamongstChinainternetmegacaps,inourview,withtherevenue

acceleration/strengthacrossgames,VideoAccounts,wealthmanagementandSaaS,mostlyoffsettingthemacro-ledsoftnessinmobileadnetwork,mediaadand

?ntech/commercialpayment.Underpinnedbymanagement’ssoundexecution,thestocktradesatanundemanding14x2024-25EP/E(11xex-portfolio).

nMeituan:WebelieveMeituan’sfundamentalsremainamongthestrongestinChinaInternetsub-segments,withlocalservicesbeingoneofourtop2preferred

sub-segmentsinChinaInternet,whereMeituanhasaleadingpositioninafavorableduopolyinfooddeliveryandin-storemarkets.MeituanremainsoneofourkeyBuyideasinChinaInternetwithanundemandingvaluationat15x2024E-25Eaverage

P/E,onstronggrowth/earningsvisibilitywithfurtheronlinepenetrationuplift/growthofthelocalservicesTAM.

nXiaomi:WebelieveXiaomi’sHumanxCarxHomeecosystem,whichisbuiltuponitscontinuedyetef?cientR&Dinvestmentsinoperatingsystems,AIandchips,is

takingshapeinChinaandglobally;thisisevidencedbyitsrobustmarketsharegainsinsmartphone/IoT/EV,andsteadygrowthinsmartphoneMAUs,IoTconnectivityandinternetrevenue.WecontinuetoseevaluationasattractiveasXiaomicurrently

tradesat13x12mP/EforXiaomicore(equivalenttotheavg.12mP/Eduringthe

priorsmartphonedowncycle)and1.5x/0.8x2024/25EP/SforXiaomiEV(below

peersaftergrowthadjustment).NotedcatalystsaheadincludeSU7UltraprototypetakingontheNürburgringinearlyOct,Xiaomi15seriesreleaseinmidOct,and

Singles’Daypromotions.

_

Withininternetverticals:weseeYMMandTMEsustainingleadershipwithintheirrespectivesub-sectors,withroomforfurtheronlinepenetrationandAPRU/takerateuplift.WithineCommerce/eComads,weseePDDashavingfavorablerisk-reward,giventhesigni?cant30%+declinespost-resultsonconservativemanagement

commentaryandconcernsondomesticcompetition+geopoliticaluncertaintiesforTemuaheadofupcomingmajorWesterncountryelections.Alibabacontinuestobewell

positionedtobene?tfromadtechupgradesonthebackofstabilizedGMVshare,inourview,whichshouldnarrowthegapbetweenGMVandCMRandresultinsigni?cant

roomforvaluationmultiplerepaironrecoveryoftop-linegrowth.Webelievethe

potentialadditionofWeChatPayonitsTaobao-Tmallplatformscouldfurtherhelp

Taobao-Tmalltotapnew/lowertiercitiesusersandimproveconvenienceforexisting

users(seeourrecentreport).Meanwhile,wecontinuetoseeitssigni?cantshareholderreturnpoliciesandSouthboundinclusionfromSep6supportingvaluations.

5September20249

GoldmanSachsNavigatingChinaInternet

Exhibit10:OurlatestChinaInternetkeystockideasbypreferredsub-sectors

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Keythemesfrom2Qresultsand3Qoutlook:topics/highlightsbysub-sector

_

n

ChinaeCommerce:intensifyingcompetitiononGMV;valueconscious

consumers’ongoingshiftfromof?inetoonline;Adtechupgradetodrivelong-termtakerates

oTheme1:Fightbackofincumbentsmeetingwithresponsefrom

disruptorsforGMVgrowth,andtheincrementalmarketsharedynamics,asBABArepositionsitsnextphaseoffocustobeonimprovementof

monetizationfollowingstabilizationofGMVshare,whilePDDaimsto

re-accelerateGMVgrowthonusersubsidiesandmerchant’stechnologyfeerebates.

oTheme2:Value-consciousconsumers’ongoingshiftfromof?ineto

online.Onlineconsumptioncontinuestoholdupwell,withAugusttrackingatc.462mnaveragedailyparcels,growingatc.22%yoy,largelyonparwithJuly(+22%yoy)despitepriorconcernsoffrontloadedconsumptionofJune-18toweighonGMVperformancein3Q24.Industryparcelvolumewas+22%yoyinJuly2024,acceleratedfrom18%inJune2024.

oTheme3:Adtechupgradeandmonetizationstrategyshiftdrivegradualconvergenceoftakerate.Whilewecontinuetoexpectadtechupgradetodrivelong-termtakerateupsides,weexpectevolvingstrategiesamong

differentplatformstodrivetakerateconvergence,giventhedifferentinnings

5September202410

GoldmanSachsNavigatingChinaInternet

oftheadtechupgradecycleandshiftingprioritizationbetweenGMV/monetization/healthinessofmerchantecosystem.

§WeexpectBABAtofocusonimprovingmonetization,withsoftwareservicefeesstartinginSep2024(seeouranalysisonTaobao-Tmallmerchantservicefee).

§PinduoduohasshifteditsfocusfrommonetizationtoGMVgrowthandthedevelopmentofahealthyecosystemoverthelongterm,through

reduction/alleviationofsoftwareservicefees.Separately,PDD’s

continued“goingglobal”growthpotential,albeitwithgeopoliticalrisks,continuestobetopofmindthisyear.

§WealsoexpectJDtofocusmoreongrowthin2H24,withstablemarketshareinitscore3C/appliancecategoriesandseeing

incrementallyfastergrowthinJuly,despiteitstoplinemoderatingfurtherin2Q24onlastyear’shighbasebutsolidpro?tgrowth.

oOncategoryperformance:PlatformslikeJDareworkingwithlocal

governmenttolaunchappliancetrade-inprograms,withBeijinggovernmentsubsidiesnowlaunchedontheJDplatform(seelink).

oOnadtechupgrades:Alibabaremainscon?dentinsite-widemarketingtofullyoptimizeanddeliverincreasinglymorepositiveresultswithin6-12

monthsfromlaunch(sinceApr2024),whilePDDhasupgradedadtech

productstomerchandisemarketingviatheintegrationofsite-wide&

standardizedmarketingsinceJul2024,whilesimultaneouslyannouncingRmb10bnofinvestmentsplannedforthenext12months(around

reduction/alleviationofsoftwareservicefees,notingacontrastvs.peers’monetizationmovesalbeitfromalowerbase/startingpoint).

nChinagames:Arelativelyhealthysegmentmoreimmunetomacroheadwinds,asinnovativegameplayenablesbetterpricingpowertoincreaseARRPU;alesscatalyst-centric3Q24posttheseasonallystrongsummer;regulatoryoutlook

_

remainsbenign

oTheme1:Arelativelyhealthysegmentmoreimmunetomacro

headwinds,asinnovativegameplayenablesbetterpricingpowerto

increaseARRPU,asgamescontinuetobene?tfrommarketshare

consolidationamongleadingplayersthroughlaunchofnewgamesorrevampofexistinggames,withgrossingmomentumunderpinnedbypipeline

executionandre-invigorationoflegacyfranchise.

oTheme2:Alesscatalyst-centric3Q24posttheseasonallystrong

summer,focusingonhealthinessofgamelongevity.Duringthesummer

peakseason,ourcoveredgamecompanieshavecollectivelyreleasedarecordno.ofnewgames,withthemomentumsubsidingintheseasonallysofter4Q,beforere-accelerationin1Qaheadofthewinterbreak.

§Assuch,wefocusoncompanieswithpipelinesgaining

above-consensustraction(i.e.,Bili’smonetizationinnovationwith

3-Kingdom,Tencent’sDnFPC),andbelievesentimentin?ection(ahead

5S