大中華區(qū)零售物業(yè)供應(yīng) 需求核心趨勢-2024 9月刊 GREATER CHINA RETAIL SUPPLY DEMAND TRENDS -ADVANCING THROUGH INNOVATION

GREATERCHlNA

RETAILSUPPLY/

DEMANDTRENDS

ADVANCINGTHROUGHINNOVATloN

SEPTEMBER2024

TheGeneralMarket

????

Guangzhouadded683,o00sqmofnew

primeretailsupplyduringthepastyear,withemergingsubmarketstaking75%ofthe

space,bringingthecity'sprimeretailstockto5.6millionsqm.

Footfallandconsumerdemandreboundedsignificantly.primeshoppingcentresincore

submarketswithsuperiorlocationsand

strongoperationalcapabilitiescontinuetobethefirstchoicefortenantswhenopeningnewstores,andvacancyratesincoresubmarketsremainlow.Thecity'sprimeshoppingcentre

overall,strongeconomicfundamental

momentumrenderedsupporttothegrowthofshanghai'sretailpropertymarketoverthe

BytheendofH12024,thetotalstockin

Beijing'sretailmarketwas17.3millionsqm,ofwhichshoppingcentresrecorded15.5

millionsqm.

Theoverallconsumermarketremains

weakenedinthefaceofdownwardeconomicpressure.AIthoughcustomerfootfallhas

reboundedalotoverthepastyear,the

overallconsumptionpowerremainssubdued.AsofH12024,theaverageaskingrentalin

thecitydroppedslightlytoRMB2,20opersqmpermonth,andthevacancyraterose

slightlyto1o.6%.

Inthepastyear,Beijing'sretailmarkethas

beensteadilyupgraded.shoppingcentres

havecontinuedtodiversifytheirbrands,andfashionretailandcasualcateringbrandsin

particular,haveseenpositivebusiness

performance.

Approximately600,oo0sqmofnewsupplyisscheduledtoenterthemarketinH22024.

withthesupportofconsumptionand

investmentpolicies,membershipstoreswillalsocontinuetoexpand.In2024,BeijingwillcontinuetopromotetheestablishmentofanInternationalconsumptioncentrecity,andwiththesupportofrelatedpolicies,the

upgradingofcommercialprojects,city

blocks,andsubmarketswillremainthemainthemeforthedevelopmentoftheretail

marketinthecity.

TheopeningofkkTimeanduniwayduringH22023toH12024pushedshenzhen'stotalprimeretailstockto6.6millionsqm.

pastyear.27shoppingcentreswere

completedinH22023andH12024.shanghaiaddedover1.56millionsamofnewprime

retailsupplyduringthepastyear,bringingthecity'sprimeretailstocktoapproximately23.4millionsam.

shanghai'sprimeretailpropertymarket

continuedtoseetheaveragevacancyrate

drop,inspiteofalargeamountofnewsupplyenteringthemarketduringthepastyear.BYtheendofQ22024,theoverallvacancyrate

forshanghai'smid-tohighendshoppingcentresdecreasedto9.32%,downo.o6

percentagepointsq-0-aando.26percentagepointsy-o-y.Thisisthelowestvacancyrate

forshanghai'sprimeretailpropertymarketsince2022,demonstratinganunabated

growingdemandforprimeretailspacefrommanybrands.

Lookingtothefuture,morethan1.2millionsqmofnewretailspaceisscheduledforH2

2024,includinglandmarkpropertiessuchas

Livat,HOPSON,andMiraLand.Asemergingareascontinuetodevelop,theaveragerent

forshanghairetailpropertyisexpectedtodipasnewprojectswithintheseareascomplete.

Theretailsectoraccelerateditsrecovery,withtheopeningofmoreshopsinshoppingcentresthanF&Boutletsoverthepastyear.A

combinationofpositivefactorsdrovethe

citywidevacancyratedowno.6percentage

pointsfromH12023to8.4%,arecordlowsinceQ22022.primespacerentallevels

subsequentlyroseforasecondconsecutivequartertoRMB812.1persqmpermonth,

o-yto7.3%duetothelargeamountofnewsupplyinnon-coresubmarkets.

Guangzhouisexpectedtoadd1.3millionsqmofnewsupplythroughtotheendof2026.TheacceleratedconstructionofnewprojectsandtherenewalofexistingprojectswillhelpGuangzhoudevelopintoamulticore

businessdistrictsystem.Inaddition,

Guangzhouhasalsoissuedguidelinesondiversifyingconsumptionscenariosand

introducingfirst-in-marketshopsthisyear,tofurtherpromotethecultivationofan

Internationalconsumptioncentrecity.

reflectinglandlords'positiveattitudestowardsthemarket.

shenzhenisexpectedtoadd1.2millionsqmofnewsupplythroughtotheendof2025.Luxurybrandsareexpanding,whilemoreshopswith

innovativeelementsanduniqueexperiencesaresettoopen.withamoreproactivestrategyofopeningupandtheimprovementin

infrastructure,touristsfromothercountriesandfromthewesternsideofthepearlRiverEstuaryareexpectedtobethenewdrivingforces

behindthegrowthofshenzhen'sconsumption.

Thetradeinofoldconsumergoods,the

diversificationofconsumptionscenariosandtheoptimisationofthebusinessenvironmentmayalsohelptoboostconsumptiondemandandactivatemarketplayers.

4

overthepastyear,chengdu'sprimeretail

markethasseentheadditionoftwonew

projects*,increasingthecity'stotalstocktoover8.19millionsqm.TheopeningofTianfuJoycitynotonlyfilledthecommercialgapneartheTianfuBusinessDistrictbutalso

spurredtheformationofanewcommercialhubinTianfuNewArea.

chengdu'sprimeretailpropertystocknowexceeds8millionsam,rankingjustbehindBeijingandshanghai.Thecompetitionis

intense,promptingtraditionaloperatorstotransformtheirproperties.Forinstance,

cosmohasbeenrebrandedasatrendy

hotspot,andsinohydrovaryInternationalhas

beenconvertedintoanoutletmall.Itisanticipatedthatmoretraditionaland

outdatedpropertieswillundergosimilar

transformationandupgradinginthefuture.

currently,thedevelopmentoftraditionalcommercialpropertiesinchengduhas

stabilised.overthenextfewyears,thesupplyofhighqualityshoppingcentresisexpectedtoslowdown.Futurecommercialsupplyin

standardcommercialproperties,communitybusinesses,andneighbourhoodcentresthatcatertoresidents'dailyneeds.

米Aswellasfortworeinstallationprojects

overthepastoneyear,Hangzhouhasmadeanefforttoboosttheeconomyandstabilisegrowthbypromotingconsumptionboostinginitiatives.Accordingly,thecity'seconomic

activitycontinuedtorecoversteadily,with

somefieldsshowingnoticeableimprovement.Amongthem,theconsumermarket

continuedtorecover,andthevolumeand

qualityofconsumptionwasrelativelyactive.

Ninecommercialprojects,withacombinedareaofapproximately865,o0osqmofnewretailspace,openedinHangzhoulastyear.Meanwhile,bothinternalandexternal

upgradingandrenovationhascontinued.Forexample,HangzhouTowerlauncheda

comprehensivebrandimageenhancement

andtransformation,andJinshaparadisewalkwelcomedthereopeningofitsrecently

renewedthemedfoodandbeveragespace.

Intermsofpolicy,Hangzhou's"several

MeasuresonFurtherpromotingtheLinkageofperformanceArts,sportsEvents,

Exhibition,commerceandTourismtocreateaGamecityandshoppingparadise"was

officiallyreleasedinJune,aimingtocultivatenewconsumptiontypesandstimulate

consumptionpotential,andacceleratethe

constructionofanInternationalconsumptioncentrecity·

DespitethefactthatHongkonghasfully

reopeneditsbordersinceearly2023,the

changedconsumptionpatternsofmainlandvisitorsandthetrendoflocalresidents

spendingnorthboundhasslowedlocalretailsalesin1H2024,withmostkeyretailtradecategoriesrecordingyear-on-yeardeclines.

Nevertheless,inboundtouristnumbers

continuedtorecover,supportingstable

leasingdemandfromretailers.overallhighstreetvacancyratesremainedlargelystable,withthemarketwitnessingleasingactivitiesbyinternationalbrandsincoreareas.The

overallhighstreetvacancyrateaveragedat7.8%inQ2,withrentsincreasedbylow

singledigitsacrossdistrictsyear-to-date.

Lookingahead,giventhestructuralchangesinspendinghabitsofinboundtouristsand

localresidents,retailersareexpectedto

remaincautious.webelieveleasingdemandin2HwillbemainlydrivenbymainlandretailandF&Bchains,while2Hretailhighstreet

rentsacrossdistrictsareforecasttogrowbyO%to5%.withthecentralGovernment

announcingsupportivemeasuresthatbenefitthecity'sretailmarket,aswellaslocal

governmentinitiativestopromotethemega-eventeconomy,weexpecttoseeoverall

improvingfootfallandconsumptionin2H.

w

ThepostpandemicerabeganinH12023,

withtheannualnumberoftouristsvisitingTaiwanreachinghalfoftheprepandemic

(2019)levels,indicatingagradualreturnofforeigntouriststotheretailhubs.whilethemarketstillprimarilyreliedondomestic

demand,overallconsumerspending

strengthened.DuringH22023,retailers

regainedconfidence,leadingtoconsecutivenewcommercialprojectopeningsandfilledvacancies.

BYQ22024,thevacancyrateinximenhadfallento3.5%,markingeightconsecutive

quartersofreduction.zhongxiaoexperienced

increasedcrowdsduetoregularbaseballgamesattheTaipeiDome,resultingina12.3%vacancyrate.Thevacancyratein

pandemiclowof3.3%.

Touristnumbersin2024areanticipatedto

nearlyreachprepandemiclevels,withasteadyreturnofforeignvisitors.The

economyremainsstable,andconsumer

activityhasnormalised.Moreover,arenewedfocusonphysicalshoppinghaspromptede-commercebrandstoopenphysicalstores

andexpandintoretailhubs.

5

GUANGZHOU

BEIJING

SHANGHAl

CHENGDU

HANGZHOU

SHENZHEN

TAIPEl

HONGKONG

since2024,chinahaslaunchedaseriesof"consumptionpromotionyear"activitiesto

promotethe"oldfornewproducttradein"policy,therebyfosteringsteadyconsumptiongrowth.providingfurthersupportforeconomicrecovery,china'stotalretailsalesof

consumergoodsreachedRMB23.6trillioninH12024,up3.7%y-o-y.(Figure1).BY

consumptiontype,salesofservicesgrewfast,increasingby7.5%y-o-y.Retailsalesof

upgradedgoodsalsogrewrapidlynewenergyvehiclessawtheirretailsalesincreaseby32%y-o-y.Moreover,theretailsalesofcommunicationequipment,andsportsand

entertainmentgoodsincreasedby11.3%y-o-yand11.2%yo-oy,respectively.Meanwhile,inJune2024,china'sconsumerconfidenceindexwas86.2,indicatingthatresidents'

consumptionexpectationsstillremainedrelativelycautious(Figure2).Inthefirsthalfof

2024,consumptioncontributed60.5%torealGDpgrowth,adecreaseof13.2percentagepointsfromtheQ12024(Figure3).Thedeclineinconsumptiondataismainlyduetotworeasonsone,thehighercomparisonbasecomparedtothesameperiodlastyearand,

two,thefactthatchina'sconsumptionpotentialneedstobefurthertapped.

Figure1:

Totalretailsalesofconsumergoodsinchina(2012mmH12024)

source:NationalBureauofstatistics,cushman&wvakefielaResearchRMB(Trillion)

201220132014201520162017201820192020202l20222023Hl2024

20%

15%

10%

5%

-5%

Totalretailsalesofconsumergoods(trillionyuan)Growth(%)

Figure2:

chineseconsumerconfidenceindex(2012-H12024)

source:NationalBureauofstatistics,cushman&wvakefield'Research

201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023H12024

Figure3:

Thecontributionofconsumerspendingtoeconomicgrowthinchina(2012mmH12024)

source:NationalBureauofstatistics,cushman&wvakefield'Research

100%

80%

6O%

40%

20%

201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023H12024

7

TheThirdplenarysessionofthe20thcpccentral

committeeemphasisedtheimportanceofactively

expandingdomesticdemand,acceleratingthe

developmentofacompletedomesticconsumption

demandsystem,improvingthelongtermmechanismforexpandingconsumption,andestablishingasoundincentivemechanismforgreenconsumption.Inviewofthis,china'sserviceconsumptionwillcontinueto

maintainstrongdevelopmentmomentuminthe

future.Additionally,newtypesofconsumptionwill

continuetoemerge.Inlightofthis,retailersand

landlordsofshoppingcentresareactivelyembracingthesechangesbyintroducingnewtechnologies,new

retailformats,andnewmodelstocontinuouslyimproveserviceandshoppingexperiences.

BYQ22024,thetotalprimeretailpropertystockinthecoremarketsinthe16majorcitiesinGreater

chinawetracktotalled112.5millionsqm.

competitioninthechineseretailpropertymarkethasfurtherintensified.whilesomewelloperatedshoppingcentresareconstantlyupgradingtheirfacilities,brandmixtureandservicestoattract

consumers,someunderperformingmallscontinueto

witnesstenantleakagecausingperformancedivergenceamongretailpropertiesaroundtheregionoverthepastyear.Duringthepastyear,

demandforprimeretailspaceinchinacontinuedtobeactive,however.Fashion(especiallyoutdoor

sportsbrands),F&B,lifestyle,entertainment,and3c

productsandsmarthomeexperiencestoresweremajordriversofdemand.Therefore,theoverall

vacancyrateseeninthe16majorcitiesinGreaterchinadecreasedto1o.6%inQ22024(Table1).

Table1

Thesupply/demandrundownfor18citycoreareammlevelmarketsinGreaterchina(Q22024)

source:cushman&wakefieldResearch

8

“

Inrecentyears,newtypesofconsumptionsuchasdigitalconsumption,9reenconsumptionandhealth-relatedconsumption,aswellasnewconsumptiongrowthpointslikesnnarthomeequipment,cultureandentertainment,tourism,sportseventsand"Guochao"goodsandproducts,haveemergedandflourishedvigorouslyinchina·TheriseofEWtypesofconsumptionhasnotonlydriventheupgradingofconsumptionstructuresbuthasalsodemonstratedthestrongresilienceandvigorousvitalityofchina'sretailmarket·

“

Dukezhen

ManagingDirector,HeadofRetailserviceschina

duke.sq.zhen@cushwake.com

“

china'sseriesofpoliciesainedatexpandingdomesticdemandandpromotingconsumptionhavecontinuedtogainmonentunnandeffectiveness,withthecountry'sretailmarketshowingasustainedtrendofrecoveryin2024.ASserviceconsumptionandnewconsumerdemandscontinueto9row,thechinesemarketstillholdslargeconsumptionpotentialthatremainstobetapped.TOmeettheincreasinglydiverseandpersonalisedneedsofconsumers,theretailindustryisconstantlyintroducingnewbusinessmodels,commercialscenarios,serviceofferings,andretailformats·

“

shaunBrodie

HeadofGreaterchinaResearchcontentshaun.fv.brodie@cushwake.com

supplyTrends

TraditionalcommercialRetailprojectupgrading

InJune,theNationalDevelopmentandReformcommissionissuedthe"MeasuresoncreatingNewRetailscenariosandcultivatingNewGrowthpointsforconsumption",proposingtopromotetherenovationandupgradingofmainstreets;developsmartcommercialarEas;establishdistinctiveretailarEasthatintegratesretail,culture,tourismandsports;exploretheuSEoftechnologiessuchasAI,VRandavatarstoexpandlivestreamingscenarios;anddevelopinstantretailandsmartstores·underthesefavourablepolicies,shoppingcentresacrosschinaarEactivelyrenovatingproperties,upgradingfacilities,creatingexperientialspaces,enrichingretailformatsandservicesandadoptinghigh-techtoeetthechangingneedsofconsumers·

Retailpropertyc-REITS

sincethebeginningof2024,thec-REITSmarkethassignificantlyrebounded,withtheunderlyingassetsofc-REITSContinuingtoexpand.ASOfAugust11,sixretailpropertyc-REITShavebeensuccessfullyissued,withthetotalissuancesizeexceedingRMB14.5oillion(Figure5).Theissuanceofretailpropertyc-REITShashelpedtoaddresstheshortcomingsofretailproperties,promoteshoppingcentreupgrading,andplayapositiveroleinboostingconsumptioninchina·Furthermore,ifanenterpriseissuesretailpropertyc-REITS,ithasbeenknowntohelptooptimiseitsassetstructure,enhancecapitalturnoverefficiencyandreturnlevels,therebyprovidingstrongsupportforthelong-termdevelopmentoftheenterprise·

Figure4:

Thepenetrationrateofintelligentapplicationsinshoppingcentres

infirst-andsecond-tiercitiesinchina(July2024)

source:cushman&wvakefieldResearch

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

smartparkingshoppingcentreminismartmembershipQRcodesandARshoppingguidesprogrammesrewardpointsordering

Figure5:

IssuedRetailpropertyc-REITsinchina(byAugust11,2024)

source:CREITsprospectuses,cushman&wakefielaResearch

china

Resources

SCPG

chinaJinmao

wumart

capitaloutletsshanghaiBailian

TheMixc

IncityThesplendors

Dacheng,

yutingqiao,Huatian

andDeshengmen

wumart

Jinanand

wuhancapital

outlets

shanghaiFestival

walkshopping

centre

QingdaoHangzhou

changsha

Beijing

Jinanwuhan

shanghai

Dacheng::12

yutingqiao:19Huatian:19

Deshengmen::21

Jinan:5wuhan:6

419,OOO

250,000

Dacheng:29,000

yutingqiao:25,000Huatian:15,000

Deshengmen:9,000

Jinan:116,o00wuhan:87,000

125,000

DemandTrends

culturalandTourismconsumption

Nowadays,ithasbecomethenormforchineseresidentstotravel,watchperformances,visitexhibitions,andgocampingduringweekendsorholidays.InH1l2024,china'stourismmarketachievedgrowthcomparedwith2019(Figure6).Atthesametime,bothruralandcitytravelwithinchinahasbecomepopularonsocialmediainchina·Meanwhile,manyOVErsEascitizenshavealsobeendrawntochinafortourism.InH12024,thenumberofOVErsEasvisitorsreached14.64million,up152.7%y-o-y.Acrosschina,regionsareactivelyfosteringnewbusinessmodelsfortourismgoodsandservicessuchasspecialtycuisine,thenighteconomy,theperformingartseconomy,educationaltours,themeparksetc.,tomeetthediverse,personalisedandquality-orientedtourismconsumptiondemandgeneratedbytoday'sconsumersinchina-whichinturnhascontrioutedtoretailmarketupgradingthroughoutthecountry·

Figure6:

Thegrowthrateofchina'stourismmarketinH12024comparedtothe

sameperiodin2019

source:MinistryofcultureandTourismofchina,cushman&wvakefieldResearch

30%

25%

15%

10%

5%

NewyearHolidayTombsweepingDayHolidayMayDayHolidayDragonBoatFestivalHolidayGrowthrateofdomestictripsinchinauGrowthrateofdomestictourismrevenueinchina

Greenconsumption

Greenconsumptionhasbecomeamainstreamtrendinchina,throughthejointeffortsofgovernment,thesocietyandenterprises·MoreandmorechineseconsumersarEactivelyparticipatinginthe"Emptyplate"campaign,purchasingenergyefficientproducts,adopting9reentravel,joininginwastesortingandtradingsecond-handgoods.Inaddition,anincreasingnumberofenterprisesarEjoiningtheranksof9reentransformation,adoptingcleanorrenewableenergy,innovating9reentechnologies,andlaunchingmoreenergy-efficient,environmentallyfriendlyandhealth-relatedproducts·Takingnewenergycarsasanexample,inJuly2024,theretailsalesofnewenergycarssurpassedinternalcombustionenginecarsforthefirsttimeinchina·Moreover,thepenetrationrateofnewenergycarssalesreached51.1%,up15percentagepointsy-o-y(Figure7).

Figure7:

Thepenetrationrateofnewenergycarssalesinchina

(January2024-July2024)

source:CPCA,cushman&wakefielaResearch

50%

40%

30%

20%

Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.May.Jun.Jul.

TheeightmajorGreaterChinacity-levelretail

propertymarketsthisreportcoversare:

Beijing;

shanghai;

shenzhen;

Guangzhou;

chengdu;

Hangzhou;

Hongkong,and;

Taipei.

Theseeightmarketsprovideabroadoverviewofthelatestretailpropertysupplyanddemandactivityacrossthekeygateway

marketsintheGreaterchinaregion.

TRENDSFOR

BElJING

AmyMeng

Retaiservices

amy.y.meng@cushwake.com

sabrinawei

Research

sabrina.d.wei@cushwake.com

“

Figure8:

BeijingretailpropertymarketmmNsupplydynamicsbysubmarkets(2023-mmH12024)

source:cushnman&wakefieldResearch

SQm

1,5OO,OOO

Thepastyear

Duringthepastyear,Beijing'sretailmarket

welcomed1lnewcompletions,bringingatotalof1.1millionsamofhighqualityretailspacetothe

market.Amongthem,fiveshoppingcentreswith

520,ooosqmopenedinH12024,whichisbasicallythesameamountseeninthesameperiodlastyear.Mostnewentrantsarelocatedinsuburbanareas,

accountingfor80%ofthetotalarea,andmostof

1,OOO,OOO

5O,OO

theseprojectsarelargecommunity-typeshoppingcentresbuiltbybranddevelopers,andwhichhavegreatlyfacilitatedandsatisfiedtheshoppingneedsofthesurroundingresidents.

2023H12024

Inaddition,urbanrenewalcontinuestopromotethepaceoftheoverallmarket'squalityupgradingin

OGV

Beijing'sretailmarket.someexistingprojectshavealsoreopenedafterrenovation.Examplesincludewukesongwandaplaza(formerlythecharter

shoppingcentre),wangfujingoutletsupTown(formerlyFcplazaHolidayLifecity)andxiyueshoppingMall(formerlytheNewyanshaMall).

Denand

Thepastyear

Qualityupgradingandurbanrenewalremained

thekeythemesintheretailmarketduringthepastyear.TheBoxandThe1733commercialspaces

demonstratedtheefficientintegrationofbusiness,travelandsportsconsumption.Meanwhile,the

sanlitunsubmarketactivelypromotedthe

constructionofits"newconceptblock,"withtheTaikooLicomplexadjustingitsbrandmixand

introducingfurtherluxurynamesandflagship

stores.Besides,newprojectsinsuburbanareas

haveleveragedtheirrelativelygenerousspacetocreatediversifiedexperientialconsumption

destinations,whichhavegreatlyenrichedand

enhancedtheconsumptionandentertainment

environmentoftheindustrialparksandresidentialcommunitiesintheregion.

Duringthepastyear,severalshoppingcentreshavebeenoptimisingandadjustingtheirtenantmix,withtheintroductionofbrandsinshoppingcentresgraduallydiversifying.Brandfirststores

andflagshipstoreshavealsobeenamainbusiness

focusarea.Forexample,canadianhigh-end

outerwearbrandNobisopeneditsfirstGreater

chinastoreatskp;MatchaTOKYO'sfirstBeijing

storealsoopenedatchinaworldshoppingMall.Regardless,economicpressuresandthe

consequentphenomenonofconsumption

downgradingareexertingpressureinsome

sectors.MichaelkorsstoresinchaoyangJoycityandwangfujingAPMhaveclosed,andMichelin-starredrestaurantsTiagoHomekitchenatIndigoandoperaBombanaatparkviewGreenshoppingcentrealsoclosedtheirdoorsinQ22024.

Figure10:

Figure9:

Averagerental(2016-Q22024)

source:cushnan&wakefieldResearch

supply,absorptionandvacancy(2016-Q22024)

source:cushman&wakefieldResearch

RMB/sqm/mth

2,60O

2,4OO

2,2OO

2,O0O

1,8OO

20162017201820192020202120222023Q22024

一Rent

Figure11:

Beijingretailpropertymarketstatistics(Q22024)

source:cushman&wvakefieldResearch

CBD979,8494.O0%8002,000

sanlitun

246,OOO

2.95%

8002,50O

xiDan

199,OOO

4.50%

1,OOO-1,600

wangfujing

450,OOO

3.00%

Lufthansa

234,O0O

4.00%

6001,50O

E2RChaowai

279,276

4.30%

6001,20O

chongwenmenxuanwunen

309,O0O

8.50%

6001,OOO

zhongguancun

1,O12,OOO

8001,8OO

otherAreas

11,739,88O

14%12%10%8%

1,40O,OOO

1,OOO,OOO8OO,OOO

40O,OOO2OO,OOO

4%2%

20162017201820192020202120222023Q22024

NewsupplyNetAbsorptionvacancyRate

supply&Demand

Theoutlook

Approximately60o,o0osqmofnewsupplyisscheduledtoentertheBeijingretailmarketinH22024.Mostofthenewprojectsarelocatedinthesuburbanareasadjacentto

industrialparksandresidentialcommunitiesandareexpectedtogreatlyfacilitatethelocal

consumptionneedsanduplifttheoverallconsumptionenvironmentinthesurrounding

areas.withthesupportofconsumptionandinvestmentpolicies,membershipstoresalsocontinuetoexpand,suchassam'sfifthandsixthstoresinchangpingandTongzhou

District,whichareexpectedtoopenin2025and2027respectively.

Beijingalsoissuedaseriesofpoliciesduringthepastyeartopromotethedevelopmentofcommercialblocks,witheachdistrictmandatedtohaveatleastonehighquality

commercialpedestrianstreetby2025.wecanexpecttheconstructionandupgradingof

commercialblockstobecomeanewhighlightinthedevelopmentofBeijing'sretailmarketinthecomingfewyears.Accordingtothegovernment'sworkreport,the

renovationandupgradingof15submarketswillbecompletedin2024.consequently,wecananticipatethat"qualityupgrading"and"urbanrenewal"willremainthekey

developmentthemesinBeijing'sretailmarketfortheforeseeablefuture.

Figure12:

Beijingretailpropertymarketsignificantprojectsunderconstruction(H22024-2025)

source:cushman&wvakefieldResearch

HappyMallother(Mentougou)202435,ooo

Huiqinshoppingcenter(Fengtai)other(Fengtai)202453,ooo

BeijingHaidianJoycityother(Haidian)2024188,ooo

Beijing(pinggu)wandaplazaother(pinggu)2025149,30o

Figure13:

BeijingretailpropertymarketNewsupplypipelinebysubmarkets(2015-2026)

source:cushman&wvakefieldResearch

1,4OO,OOO1,2O0,O0O1,OO0,O0O8OO,OOO

20O,OOO

2015201620172018201920202021202220232024F2025F2026F

TheMixc(Tongzhou)

other(Tongzhou)

2024

148,OOO

TRENDSFOR

SHANGHAl

kelvinLi

ManagingDirector,Eastchina

kelvin.q