歐洲電力部門需求靈活性的價(jià)值-53正式版-WN8

ValueofDemand

Flexibilityinthe

EuropeanPower

Sector

FinalReport

03-10-2023

Keyfindings

?ThisreportexploresdifferentscenariosfortheEuropeanpoweranddistrictheatingsystemeachrepresentingvaryingdegreesofdemand

flexibility.ThescenarioscomplywiththeEU'sobjectiveofbecomingclimateneutralby2050.

?Whenwecomparethe"Reference"scenario,whichassumesfrozenpolicywithregardstoflexibilityandminimaladvancementindemandresponse

(DR)technologies,withthe"Flex"scenario,whereregulatorychanges,technologicaladvancements,andheightenedconsumerawarenessenable

demandresponse,weobservethefollowingadvantages:

—Asocio-economicbenefitof€15.5billionannuallybytheyear2050.

—Asubstantialreductioninconsumercosts,amountingtoapproximately€26billionannuallyby2050.

—Adecreaseinaverageconsumerpowerprices(wholesale)from€61/MWhto€55/MWh.

—Theabatementof40milliontonsofCO2in2030.

—Areducedneedforapproximately300GWofbatterycapacityand90GWlessgaspeakcapacity.Additionally,anintegrationof100GWmoresolarcapacityintotheenergymix.

—Investmentsininterconnectorsbetweenbiddingzonesdecreasedby21%(61GW)

?Themodellingconsidersonlybenefitsofdemandresponseinwhole-saleelectricitymarketsincludingtheneedforinvestmentsininterconnectors

betweenbiddingzones.Anypositive(ornegative)effectsofdemandresponseondistributiongridcostandinternaltransmissiongridcostarenot

consideredinthemodelling.Possiblerevenuesfromsellingancillaryservicesarenotconsideredeither.

?Thesefindingsunderscorethepotentialbenefitsassociatedwithembracingdemandresponseandfosteringaflexibleenergylandscape.

?Pleasenotethatthecostsrelatedtorealizingthepotentialforload-shiftamongcertainconsumers,includinghouseholds,services,industries,and

electricvehicle(EV)owners,havenotbeenfactoredintotheanalysis.

Introduction

4

Projectcontext

Danfossisactivelyengagedinassessingtheroleofdemand-sideflexibilitywithintheforthcoming

Europeanpowersystemlandscape.Againstthisbackdrop,wehavepreparedalong-termanalysis

spanningthemilestoneyearsof2025,2030,and2050.Theprimaryobjectiveofthisanalysisisto

quantifytheholisticvaluethatvariousformsofdemandflexibilitycancontribute.

Ourevaluationhingesonasetofkeymetricsthatencompasssocioeconomicimpact,monetary

advantagesforconsumers,reductionsinCO2emissionsandfuelconsumption,andpowerprices.To

gainathoroughunderstanding,thesecriticalaspectswillbeinvestigatedthroughthelensofthree

distinctscenarios,eachrepresentingvaryingdegreesofdemandflexibility.

TheanalysiswillbeconductedbyutilizingtheBalmorelpowersystemmodeltoexamineEuropeanday-

aheadmarkets.Thisapproachwillfocusonoptimizingtheintricateinterplaybetweensupplyand

demanddynamics,withtheprimaryaimofminimizingcostsfortheoverallsystemsolution.

Note,thatthemodellingconsidersonlybenefitsofdemandresponseinwhole-saleelectricitymarkets

includingtheneedforinvestmentsininterconnectorsbetweenbiddingzones.Anypositive(or

negative)effectsofdemandresponseondistributiongridcostandinternaltransmissiongridcostare

notconsideredinthemodelling.Possiblerevenuesfromsellingancillaryservicesarenotconsidered

either.

5

Balmorelisafundamentalpartial-equilibriummodelofthepoweranddistrictheatingsystem.The

modelfindsleast-costsolutionsbasedonassumptionssuchasthedevelopmentoffuelprices,

demanddevelopment,technologycostsandcharacteristics,renewableresourcesandother

Balmorelenergysystemmodelling

tool

essentialparameters.

Themodeliscapableofsimultaneousinvestmentanddispatchoptimisation,showingoptimal

solutionsforpowergenerationandinterconnectorcapacity,dispatch,transmissionflowand

electricityprices.Pricesaregeneratedfromsystemmarginalcosts,emulatingoptimalcompetitive

Modeldevelopedto

supporttechnicaland

policyanalysesofpower

systems.

biddingandclearingofthemarket.

Optimizationofeconomicaldispatchand

capacityexpansion

solutionfortherepresentedenergy

system.

Characteristics:open-

source,customizable,

scalable,transparent

Model

dimensions

Mainevaluationmeasures

?Powerpricesandmarket

values

?Generation&capacity

balances

?CO2andpollutant

emissions

?Socio-economicsystem

costs

Temporalscope

?Selectedoptimizationyears

?Timeaggregatedinvestment

optimization

?Hourlydispatchoptimization

Geographicalscope

?Nordics(biddingzones)

?Germany(4regions)

?Baltics

?CentralEurope,UKandItaly

?Iberianpeninsula

Note:

OvalshapesintheNorthandBalticseasrepresentexisting&future

offshorewindlocationsinanaggregatedmatter.

Illustratedlinesrepresenttheoptionsoftransmissioncapacities.

Nomenclature

AcronymTermAcronymTerm

CAPEXCapitalcostsInd.HIndividualHeating

CHPCombinedHeatandPowerLDCLoadDurationCurve

DHDistrictHeatingOPEXOperationexpenditures

DSRDemandSideResponsePDCPriceDurationCurve

EUEuropeanUnionPtXPowertoX

EVsElectricVehiclesPVPhotovoltaics

FLHFullLoadHoursTYNDPTenYearDevelopmentPlant

H2HydrogenV2GVehicletoGrid

HSDCHyperScaleDataCentersVRESVariableRenewableEnergy

Sources

8

2

PowerSystemExpectations

ElectricitydemandinEurope

Theenvisionedelectrificationofheating,industryand

TotalElectricityDemand

transportsectorsisexpectedtoincreaseelectricity

7.000

twofoldtowards2030.

6.000

Thefollowingsourcesareusedfordemandprojections:

5.000

?REPowerEUforhydrogenproductiontargets

towards2030.

4.000

—REPowerEUhasbeendevelopedinthewakeofRussia’sinvasionof

Ukraineandassumes10mill.tondomestichydrogenproduction

(330TWh)intheEUalreadyby2030.

3.000

2.000

—TheEUCommissionMIX-scenariohavebeenusedforthelong-

termhydrogendemand.

1.000

?TYNDP’sGlobalAmbitionscenarioforthe

developmentoftotaldemandforclassicdemand,

electricvehiclesandindividualheating.

0

202520302050

Electricityconsumption:ClassicdemandElectricitytodistrictheating

Electricityconsumption-HSDCsElectricitytoindividualheating

ElectricitytoindustrialelectrificationElectricityconsumption:ElectricVehicles

?Electricityusefordistrictheatingissubjecttomodel

optimisation.

ElectricitytoP2X

10

Demandbucketsinthemodel

DemandDescriptionAssociatedcostofflexibilitybucket

ClassicClassicelectricitydemandmainlyforhouseholds,theindustryandservicesector.Nodirectcosts.Themodelincludesaninertiawhichensuresthatdemand

Containsdemandtypesnotexplicitlycoveredundertheothercategories.flexibilityisonlyactivatedwhenthereisapricedifferenceof15€/MWh.EU2021mix(approx.):

?43%industry?28%service

?26%households

?3%agriculture

Electric

vehicles

Demandincludesallelectricityforroadtransport.Initialprofileisbasedon

chargingpatternsmatchingtransportdemand(Estimatedforindividualcountries

basedonempiricaldatafromNorway)

Nodirectcosts.Themodelincludesaninertiawhichensuresthatdemand

flexibilityisonlyactivatedwhenthereisapricedifferenceof15€/MWh.

V2Gactivitiesfacetheoccurringmarketcosts(marketclearingspotprices),

essentiallyobtainingrevenuesfrompowerarbitrage.Nodirectcosts.Themodel

Individual

heating

Includeselectricityconsumptionforspaceheatinginbuildings.Thedemandis

suppliedbyheatpumpsandelectricboilers.

includesaninertiawhichensuresthatdemandflexibilityisonlyactivatedwhen

thereisapricedifferenceofabout55€/MWh

Nodirectcosts.Themodelincludesaninertiawhichensuresthatdemand

flexibilityisonlyactivatedwhenthereisapricedifferenceof10€/MWh.

DistrictHeatdemandfordistrictheatingisincluded.HeatpumpsandelectricboilersareInvestmentandoperationalcostforadditionalelectricboilersorheatpump

heating

amongtheoptionstosupplythedistrictheatingdemand.Otheroptionsarefuel-

baseddistrictheatinggenerationfromheatonlyboilersorCHP.

Dependingonthescenariothemodelmayinvestinsteeltanksandpitstorages

capacity.Usingalternativeoptionsforheatgenerationyieldsadditionalcost.

Investmentcostandoperationalcostsofsteeltanksandpitstorages.

Power-to-XDemandforproductionofe-gasses,e-liquidsandhydrogenbasedonEU

commissionscenarios.Modelledaselectricityconsuminggenerationfacilities

(electrolysers).

Investmentandoperationalcostforelectrolysersandcavernstoragesincluded.

Dependingonscenariomodeloptimisedhydrogenstoragescanbeinstalledto

enableflexibleuseofelectrolysers,whiledemandismodelledconstant.

GenerationcapacityinEurope

?Thedevelopmentinnewcapacityisdrivenbydemanddevelopment,technologycosts

andresourceassumptions.Moreover,importantpoliticaltargetsaretakenintoaccount,

includingminimumbuildoutforrenewableenergy,coalphaseoutplansandnuclear

plans.

Buildoutrequirementsandlevelsinthemodelarea

2.500

?Windandsolar:Asaminimumlevelforrenewableenergy,countriesareexpectedtofulfil

thelevelsofwindandsolarpowersetoutinENTSO-ETYNDP-scenarioNationaltrends

towards2030.Keynationalareincludedaswell,Germanyforexample,isexpectedto

pursuehighertargetsforwindandsolarpowerassetoutintheGovernment’sEaster

PackagefromApril2022,aimingfor215GWsolarpowerandaround120GWofonshore

windin2030.Additionally,80%oftheambitious30GWoffshorewindtargetby2030is

assumedrealised.Beyond2030,investmentsarebasedonmodeloptimisation.For

onshorewindandsolarPV,countryspecificcapsareemployedtoreflectarealistic

deploymentthatconsidersplanningandgridconstraintsatthelocallevel.These

constraintsaregraduallyrelaxedovertime.

2.000

1.500

1.000

500

?Nuclearcapacityisdeterminedexogenously.ThecapacitybasedonplansfromWorld

NuclearAssociationfordecommissioningbutwithnewplantsbeingbuiltintheUK,

FinlandandPoland.Thetotalcapacitydeclinesfromaround100GWin2021to~90GWin

2050.

0

20252030203520402050

MinonshoreOnshorecapMaxonshore

?Thermalcapacity:Currentplansfordecommissioningofcoal-firedcapacityare

considered.Otherthanthat,decommissioningofandinvestmentsinthermalpower

capacityisdeterminedbythemodel.Investmentinbiomasscapacity(woodchips,wood

pellets,straw)isconstrainedat30GWby2030(correspondingtoafuelinputofapprox.

1.900PJ)toreflectthatthecurrentpipelineofnewbiomasscapacityislimited.Towards

2050,thebiomassconstraintisliftedto40GW.

12

MinoffshoreOffshorecapMaxoffshore

MinsolarSolarcapMaxsolar

Note:

oMinandmaxshowassumptionsonminimumandmaximumpossible

buildoutpathways.

oNodifferencebetweenthetwomeans,meansthataexactcapacityis

installed.

o“Cap”showscapacityasaresultofmodeloptimisation.

oSpainandPortugalarenotincludedinthepresentgraph.

FuelandCO2prices

Fuelprices

60

50

40

Fuelprices

30

?Futures(April2023).Untilandincluding2026

?Longterm.Pricesexpectedtoconvergetolongtermequilibrium

pricesin2030

20

10

?IEAWorldEnergyOutlook2022

?AnnouncedPledgesscenario

0

?Naturalgas:LNGimportprice(Japan).

?Currenthighgaspricesexpectedtonormaliseovertime,but

outlooksaredifficultincurrentsituation.Towards2030,reduced

dependenceonnaturalgasandhighglobalbuildoutof

renewableslowersdemandforfossilfuelsandthusprices

CoalLightoilNaturalgasWoodchipsWoodpellets

ETSprice

250

CO2-prices

200

?Forwardprices(April2023).Untilandincluding2026

150

?Longterm.PricesexpectedtoconvergetoAnnouncedPledges

scenariofromWEO2022in2030andonwards.

100

?HighCO2-prices–alsogoingforwardto2030.However,current

pricesarealsotosomeextentaffectedbyhighgasprices.

50

0

13

Studystructure

14

Analysedscenarios

EaEnergyAnalyses’referenceprojectiontowards2050willbeutilisedasabasisforthepresentstudy,withkeyflexibilityaspectsvaryingacrossthreescenarios.

I.A“Reference”scenarioreflectingfrozenpolicyandlimiteddevelopmentofDRtechnologies.

Thereferencedisplaysrelativelylowlevelsofflexibility,includinginflexibleelectricity

consumptionpatternsamongacertainportionofthePtXcapacity.

II.ThePtXsectorisexpectedtoprovidethehighestlevelofflexibilityinthesystemin

upcomingyears,duetoitsdemandmagnitudebutalsocharacteristics.Therefore,an

intermediatescenario(“PtXFlex”)willbeanalysedtoshedlightonthevaluethatPtXrelated

flexibilitybringstothesystemontopofreferencecase.

III.Finally,themostflexiblescenario(“Flex”),willreflecttheadditionoffurtherdemand-side

flexibilityactionsineachdemandcategory,showcasingtheoverallemergedvaluefromthe

deploymentofdifferentflexibilitymeasures.

Anoverviewofthevaryingaspectsbetweenscenarioscanbeseeninthefollowingslide:

15

Definitionofscenarios

Demand

bucket

ReferenceReference+PtXflexibility(“PtXFlex”)Flexibilityscenario(“Flex”)

Classic2,5%fuel-shift(permanentreduction

indemand)

5%load-shift(upto2hours).

AsReference10%fuel-shift(permanentreductionindemand)

20%load-shift(upto2hours).

25%realisedin2025,50%in2030,100%by2050.

25%realisedin2025,50%in2030,

100%by2050.

Electric

vehicles

20%oftotalloadforelectricroad

transportwillparticipateinflexible

chargingandbeabletomoveplanned

chargingbyupto4hours.

15%oftotalloadV2G“fit”.

AsReference65%oftotalloadforelectricroadtransportwillparticipateinflexible

chargingandbeabletomoveplannedchargingbyupto4hours.

50%oftotalloadV2G“fit”.

25%realisedin2025,50%in2030,100%by2050.

25%realisedin2025,50%in2030,100%by2050.

IndividualFixedconsumptionpattern.AsReferenceFlexibleheatgenerationbyadjustmentstoinitialdemandprofile.Average

heatingdemandcanbemoved3hours.

25%realisedin2025,50%in2030,100%by2050.

DistrictFlexibilityconsistsoftheoptionAsReferenceAsReferenceplus:heatingutilitiestofulfiltheheatdemand

byelectricityorotherheatThemodelmayinvestinsteeltanksandpitstorages.

generation,dependingonthe

powerprices.Load-shiftamongdistrictheatingconsumers:

2025:4hoursflex,25%realised

Themodelmayinvestinsteeltanks2030:5hoursflex,50%realised

only.2050:6hoursflex,75%realised

Power-to-X75%ofPtXdemandoperatesflexible100%flexiblePtXload.AsReference+PtXflexibility

25%ofPtXdemandfollowsafixedModeloptimisedhydrogenstoragescanbeinstalledtoenableflexible

loadcurve(flatthroughouttheyear).useofelectrolysers,whiledemandismodelledconstant.Costof

storagereflectsthoseoflarge-scalecaverns,assumingahydrogenbackboneinfrastructureisavailabletoconnecthydrogenproducersdirectlytoconsumersandcentrallylocalisedlargescalehydrogencaverns.

Factorsaffectingtherealisationofscenarios

?Severalfactorsaffecttheuptakeofdemandresponsetechnologiesincluding

1.RegulatoryEnvironment:Governmentpoliciesandregulationscangreatlyimpactdemandresponseadoption.Supportivepolicies,incentives,

andmandatescanencouragetheimplementationofdemandresponseprograms.

2.TechnologyAvailabilityandMaturity:Theavailabilityandmaturityofdemandresponsetechnologiesplayacrucialrole.Ifadvancedandcost-

effectivetechnologiesarereadilyaccessible,itbecomeseasierforconsumersandbusinessestoimplementdemandresponsestrategies.

3.ConsumerAwarenessandEducation:Lackofawarenessorunderstandingofdemandresponsecanbeabarrier.Effectiveeducationand

outreachprogramscanhelpconsumersandbusinessesmakeinformeddecisions.

4.ElectricitypricesandGridneeds:Theeconomicbenefitofbeingflexibledependsonthestateofthegridandthecompositionofpowersupply

etc.Strongerincentiveswillencouragemoredemandresponse.

?Thereferencescenarioisintendedtoreflectasituationwherefactors1-3donotimproveconsiderablycomparedto

today(factor4isconsideredwithinthemodelling*).

?Theflexibilityscenariosshowdevelopments,wheretheregulatoryenvironment,technologydevelopmentand

consumerawarenessfacilitatedemandresponse.

*Themodellingconsidersbenefitsofdemandresponseinwhole-saleelectricitymarketsincludingtheneedforinvestmentsininterconnectorsbetweenbidding

zones.Anypositive(ornegative)effectsofdemandresponseondistributiongridcostandinternaltransmissiongridcostarenotconsideredinthemodelling.Possible

revenuesfromsellingancillaryservicesarenotconsideredeither.

Demand-sideflexibilitymeasuresinEurope

oElectricvehiclesdemandincludesallelectricityforroad

transport.Thisdemandisflexible,andanincreasingsharecanbe

movedfor4hours.Thus,themodellingaccountsforsmart

charging.Vehicle-to-gridsolutionscanalsobeenabled.

TotalElectricityDemandProgression

3.000

oElectricityforindividualheatingincludeselectricityconsumption

forspaceheatinginbuildings,whichismodelledasheat

demand.Thedemandissuppliedbyheatpumps,directelectric

heatingandelectricboilers.Apartoftheindividualheatdemand

canbeconsideredflexible,withtheoptionofload-shiftingin

futurehours.

2.500

2.000

1.500

oElectricityfordistrictheatingisbasedonmodeloptimization.

1.000

Heatpumpsandelectricboilersareamongtheoptionstosupplythedistrictheatingdemand.Otheroptionsarefuel-based

500

districtheatinggenerationfromheatonlyboilersorCHP.

0

oElectricityforP2Xisincludedbasedontheconsumptionofe-

202520302050

gasses,e-liquidsandhydrogen.AP2Xefficiencyof70%isassumedforhydrogenand60%fore-gassesande-liquids.If

profitable,storagescanbeinstalledtomoveportionsofthe

demand,henceprovidingfurtherflexibilitytothesystem.Electricityconsumption:ClassicdemandElectricitytodistrictheating

Electricityconsumption-HSDCsElectricitytoindividualheating

oThelevelofflexibilityintheclassicdemandisrisingfrom2020

ElectricitytoindustrialelectrificationElectricityconsumption:ElectricVehicles

towards2050againsttheaveragehourlydemand.Thedemandcanbemovedfor2hoursbypayinganactivationprice.This

ElectricitytoP2X

demandincludesindustrythatalsohaveflexibilitytomove

productiontolowpricehours.Note:

oHSDCs:HyperScaleDataCenters

oClassicdemandreflectspowerusefor:Industry,Service,Households,

Agriculture.

oIllustratedannualdemandlevelsreflecttheanalysed“Flex”scenarioas18

describedinupcomingsections.

Reference

Flexibilityonclassicdemand:

LowVREweek(W48),2050

Assumptionsondemandresponseforclassicelectricitydemand

(households+industry)arebasedonanestimateoflong-term

flexibilityagainsttheaveragedemandin2050.

Demandresponseisimplementedasapotentialtoshiftofdemandin

timeforupto2hours.Forcomparison,ENTSO-Ereportedaverage

DSR(Demandsideresponse)ofroughly9%ofaveragedemandin

2040intheTYNDP2018GlobalClimateActionscenario.

50%offlexibilityisactivatedatacostof15€/MWh,whilethe

remaining50%offlexibilityisactivatedat30€/MWh,meaningthatthe

differencebetweenachievableelectricitypriceshastobeatleast15

€/MWh,beforeloadshiftingtakesplace.

Flex

Deploymentoflocallydistributedbatterysolutions(forexample

residentialbatteriesincombinationwithrooftopPV)arenot

consideredinthemodellingandcouldprovideaportionofthis

flexibilitypotential.

Utilityscalebatteriesarenotincludedintheestimateshereastheyare

subjecttoexplicitoptimisation.

19

Note:

oIllustrationsreflectdemandbehaviorinalowrenewableenergyweekwithhighelectricityprices.Chosenregion

reflectsMunichinGermany.Season“S”correspondtothereflectedweeknumber.

Flexibilityonelectricvehicles

Chargingpatterns

Illustrationofchargingpatternsandlimits(2030)

Chargingpatternsforelectricvehiclesareassumedtobeflexible

relativetoaninitialchargingprofile.Theinitialchargingprofileis

basedonestimatesofimmediatechargingprofilesaccordingto

drivingpatterns(Fullbluelineforweekdaysandfullgreylinefor

weekends).1ThesechargingprofileswouldensureEV’sarefully

chargedasfastaspossibleafterdriving.Thus,chargingprofile

followpeakcommutinghourswithalittletimelag.Charging

patternsarebasedonresearchonpersonalvehicles,butareused

heretorepresentallelectricityuseforroadtransport.

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

Onlyashareofallvehiclesareassumedtobeflexible,whichleads

tocertainminimum(reddashedline)andmaximum(bluedashed

line)loadsforchargingelectricvehiclesatalltimes.Theresulting

potentialloadpatternsexcludeoptionforvehicle-to-grid

technologies,whichcouldsignificantlyincreaseflexibilityoptions,

albeitatahighercost,totakeintoaccounttechnologyneedsand

lifetimereductionsonbatteriesduetoadditionalcycling.

2%

0%

AllvehiclesMaximumallvehicles

Allvehicles(Weekend)Minimumallvehicles(Non-flexiblevehicles)

1Source:Liu,Z.,Nielsen,A.H.,&Wu,Q.(2016).OptimalOperationofEVsandHPsintheNordicPowerSystem.

TechnicalUniversityofDenmark,DepartmentofElectricalEngineering.

20

Limitsonflexibilityofelectricvehicles

Timeshifting

Flexibilityisimplementedasapotentialtoshifttheaveragecharging

load(oftheflexiblevehicles)ofupto4hoursintime.Energydemand

hastobeservedovera24hourperiod,andallenergydemandhasto

beservedby7aminthemorning,whereallEVsarechargedtothe

desiredlevel

Illustrationofchargingpatternsandlimits(2030)

12%

10%

Restrictiononflexibility

Flexibilityofchargingforelectricvehiclesissubjecttoanumberof

restrictions,whichdevelopovertime

8%

oOnlyafractionofvehiclesparticipateinflexiblecharging,meaning

theremainingvehiclewillfollowtheinitialchargingpatternatall

time.Themaximumchargingislimitedtoamultipleofthe

estimatedpeakdemandoftheinitialprofile

oMaximumchargingforflexiblevehiclescannotexceed125%ofthe

peakoftheirinitialchargingprofile.

oFlexibilityisactivatedatacostof15€/MWhindependentoftime

difference.Thismeans,thedifferencebetweenachievable

electricitypriceshastobeatleast15€/MWh,beforeloadshifting

takesplace.Foranaveragepersonalvehiclewithannualdriving

rangesof15.000–20.000kmandelectricitydemandofaround3

MWh/year,thiscorrespondsto45€/year.

6%

4%

2%

0%

AllvehiclesFlexiblevehiclesMaximumflexiblevehicles

21

Reference

Flexibilityonelectricvehicles

Theresultingmaximumcapacitytoincreasechargingorinterrupt

charging(providingupregulationtothesystem)isshownonthe

right.Theseflexibilitiesarewellbelowtechnicalaccumulated

batteryloadingandvolumeinthesystem,whichareupto18

timeshigher.

Flexibilityinchargingpatternsisusedindispatchoptimisationas

illustrated,showingamoveawayfrompeakloadininitial

chargingprofileattheexpenseofhigherpeaks.

Flex

22

Note:

oIllustrationsreflectdemandbehaviorinalowrenewableenergyweekwithhighelectricityprices.Chosenregion

reflectsMunichinGermany.Season“S”correspondtothereflectedweeknumber.

Reference

Limitsonflexibilityfrom

individualheating

Electricityusedforheatingcanbeflexiblebyexploitingheat

capacityinbuildingsandhotwatertanks.Theinitialdemand

profilefollowstheheatdemand,whichisdependentonhotwater

usageandoutsidetemperature.Anincreasingshareofbuildings

areparticipatinginprovidingflexibilitytothesystembyallowing

theaverageseasonaldemandtobeshiftedbyupto2hours.

Loadforbuildingsnotparticipatinginflexibleheatingwillhaveto

beservedatalltimes.Maximumloadforindividualheating

cannotexceedmaximumannualpeakdemand,whichiswell

belowthetotalcumulativeinstalledtechnicalcapacityofheat

pumps.

Heatdemandhastobesuppliedwithin24hoursandthuscannot

beshiftedacrossdays.

Flexibilityisactivatedatacostof10€/MWh,meaningthe

differencebetweenachievableelectricitypriceshastobeatleast

10€/MWh,beforeloadshiftingtakesplace.

Flex

23

Note:

oIllustrationsreflectdemandbehaviorinalowrenewableenergyweekwithhighelectricityprices.Chosenregion

reflectsMunichinGermany.Season“S”correspondtothereflectedweeknumber.

PtXflexibilityandVREcorrelations:Germany,Flex,2050

Thefollowingillustrationsprovideaweeklyoverviewofthepowersysteminaselectedcountry.Fromapowersystemperspective,highflexibilityisprovidedinthe

systemviabothPtXactivitiesandinterconnectors.IntermsofPtXactivities,thereisastrongcorrelationofhighVREgenerationandelectricityutilisationinthePtX

sector(PtXLoad).ThismeansthatPtXmostlyalleviatessystempressureratherthancontributingtoit.Foranoverviewofthesameweeksacrossthedifferent

scenariosrefertotheAppendix.

HighVREWeek(Week28)LowVREWeek(Week48)

ModelResults

25

PowerGenerationCapacities

PowergenerationcapacityOther

3.500

Batteries

3.000

Solar

Twomainpatternscanbeidentifiedbetweenthedeveloped

scenariosandthereferencecasewhenmovingto2050:

I.WhiletransitioningtoatotallyflexiblePtXoperation

behaviour(“PtXFlex”),batteryinvestments,whichaidthe

modeltoshiftpowerfromcheapertimeslicestomore

expensiveones,arereplacedbyhighersolarPVcapacities

andH2storages.Theadditionalflexibilityinthehydrogen

sectorhelpsaveinvestmentsinbatteriesinthepower

sector.UsingPVwithlowLCOE,hydrogenisstoredand

utilisedacrosstimesegments.

2.500

2.000

1.500

1.000

500

0

202520302050

Onshorewind

Offshorewind

Hydro

Pumpedhydro

Biogas

Biomass

Waste

Coal

Nuclear

II.Whenaddingfurtherdemandsideflexibilitymeasuresto

thesystem,similarpatternsasin“PtXFlex”areobserved,

approximatelyexaggeratedby50%,inparalleltoan

additionaldecreaseof93GWofgasand17GWofoffshore

windgenerators.Withtheopportunityofmoreflexible

demand,opportunitiesofreducingthecontributionofmore

expensivemarg