2024年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)展望：低增長(zhǎng)與高不確定性并存

ThinkAhead

2024GLOBALECONOMICOUTLOOK–

SLOWGROWTH,HIGHUNCERTAINTY

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3

Introduction

Thisisaninauguralpublicationwhichwehopewillhelpyouandyourstakeholdersnavigatethe

manychallengesandrisksintheglobaleconomyintheyearahead.Weintendtoproduceitannuallyinthefutureand,hence,wouldgreatlyappreciateanythoughtsorfeedbackyoumayhaveonit.

Inanattempttotryanddifferentiateitsomewhatfromthe

manyotheroutlookpublicationsproducedaroundthistime

ofyear,weincludesummariesofinterviewswithsevenchief

financialofficers(CFOs)fromacrosstheglobe.Theyprovidedtheirbottom-upperspectivesfromthecorporatelevelonhowtheyseetheprospectsfortheworldandtheirregionsand

countriesin2024.InSection1,wediscusstheprospectsfortheglobaleconomyandkeycountriesin2024,aswellassomeof

themajorrisks.InSection2,wehighlightanddiscussthekeyriskeventstowatch,inayearpackedfullofelectionsaroundtheglobe.InSection3,wehighlightthreekeytrendswewillbecloselyfollowinginthecomingyear:i)furtherbackslidingbygovernmentsonpoliciesintendedtoachievethegreen

transition;ii)risinggeoeconomicfragmentation;andiii)

developmentswithartificialintelligence(AI).Finally,inSection4wepublishsummariesofinterviewswithsevenCFOs.

4

Executivesummary

Theglobaleconomylookssettogrowslowlyonceagainin2024,anddownsiderisksremain.

Thelaggedimpactofpastmonetarytighteningcouldleadtoanevenmorepronouncedslowingingrowth,andgeopoliticalrisksremainveryheightened,whilethebusypoliticalcalendaradds

asizeableextradegreeofuncertaintyandpotentialvolatility.

U.S.growthislikelytoslowfrom2023,butthechancesoftheFederalReserve(Fed)pullingoffasoft-landinglookbetter

thanevennow.GrowthwillremainweakintheeuroareaandUKamidrestrictivemonetarypolicyandtighterfiscalpolicy,butshouldstillbemoderatelypositive.TherecoveryinChinaremainsquitetentative,andpolicymakerswilllikelyhave

tomateriallystep-uppolicysupportin2024iftheywantto

achievegrowthsimilarto2023.Meanwhile,growthinIndiaissettoremainrobust,anditislikelytobethefastest-growingmajoreconomyonceagainin2024.

Thisyearhasanextraordinarilybusypoliticalcalendar.Akey

focusforbusinessesandinvestorswillbetheU.S.electionin

November.Inwhatislikelytobeaverytightrace,pollsinkeyswingstatescurrentlygiveformerPresidentTrumpaslight

advantage.Avictoryfortheformerpresidentcouldhavemajorimplicationsforinternationaltrade,geopoliticsandthegreentransition.Therearealsoelectionsinothereconomicallyandgeopoliticallyimportantcountries.InIndia,PrimeMinister

Modilookssetforanotherfive-yearterm,whileintheUK,

theoppositioncentre-leftLabourPartylooksoncourseto

returntopower.InEurope,far-rightpoliticalpartieslooksettoperformwellinEuropeanParliamentaryandGerman

regionalelections.InSouthAfrica,theAfricanNational

Congress(ANC)ishighlylikelytoremainthelargestpartybutisatriskoflosingitsparliamentarymajorityforthefirsttimesincetheendofApartheid.

Inadditiontocloselymonitoringtheusualebbandflowof

economicandfinancialmarketsdatathroughouttheyear,

wewillalsobepayingparticularlycloseattentiontothree

keytrends:i)furtherbackslidingbygovernmentsonpolicies

intendedtoachievethegreentransition;ii)risinggeoeconomicfragmentation;andiii)developmentswithartificialintelligence(AI).Thefirsttwocouldbeparticularlyinfluencedbypolitical

developmentsthroughouttheyear.Forthelast,wewillbeonthelookoutforanyearlysignsthatwideradoptioncouldbebeginningtoprovideamuch-neededboosttoproductivitygrowthinglobaleconomies.Inparticular,asgenerativeAI

continuestodevelop,moreaccessiblemodelscouldincreasethediscoveryofnewandbetterapplications.

Tosupportoureconomicanalysis,wealsointerviewedsevenCFOsfromacrosstheglobeinvarioussectors,togaina

bottom-upperspectiveonhowbusinessleadersseetheyearahead.Ingeneral,therewasafeelingofcautionabout2024,

amidthechallengingglobaleconomicbackdropandgiventhegeopoliticaldevelopmentsandelectionsinmanycountries.

Somebusinesseswerenaturallylessimpactedbycyclical

economicdevelopments,butanumberwereaffectedby,oratriskfrom,structuralchangesrelatedtotrade,andsupply

chainissues.MostwereexperimentingwithAIandother

technologiesintheirbusinesses,whilesomenoteddifficultyinattractingtalent,givenchangingwaysofworking.Onenotedhowglobalwarminghadrecentlyimpactedhisbusiness.

5

Section1:

ProspectsfortheGlobaleconomyin2024

Theglobaleconomyperformedbetterthanexpectedin2023,avoidingthemajordownturnthatmanyobserversfeared.

Itbenefitedfromthesharpfallincommoditypricesfromtheir2022peaksandthecontinuedrecoveryofglobalsupplychainsandnormalisationofservicesectors,whileeconomiesprovedmoreresilientthanexpectedtotheaggressiveincreasesin

centralbankinterestrates.Thisprobablyreflectsthesupporttoconsumerspendingfromexcesssavingsbuiltupduringthepandemic,aswellasthefactthatmanyhouseholdsandfirmshadpreviouslylockedinlowinterestrates.

Therewas,nonetheless,stilladivergenceinperformance

amongthemajoreconomies.TheU.S.andIndiaperformed

strongly,theChineserecoverywasdisappointing,whilegrowthwasweakintheeuroarea.Overall,theglobaleconomyisstillthoughttohavegrownbywellbelowitsannualaverageof

recentdecades.TheWorldBankhasestimatedthatin2023therewasanexpansionofjust3%(see

Table1

),similartotheOECD’s2.9%estimatefromNovember(OECD2023).

Business-relatedsurveystypicallypointedtoslowingglobal

economicmomentumas2023progressed.InourGlobal

EconomicConditionsSurvey(GECS)(ACCA/IMA,2024),

confidenceamongaccountantsandfinancialprofessionals

globallyhasfallengraduallyforthreesuccessivequarterssinceQ1(seeChart1),whilethecloselywatchedJ.P.MorganGlobalCompositePurchasingManagers’Index(PMI)hasfallenquitemarkedlysinceitspeakinthespring,althoughithasimprovedslightlyinrecentmonths(S&PGlobal2024a).Acrosssectors,

themanufacturingPMIwasin,orquitecloseto,contractionaryterritorythroughmuchof2023(S&PGlobal2024b),whichis

reflectedintheweaknessinglobaltradegrowth,butitwastheslowingoftheservicesectorPMIthatdrovemostofthefallintheCompositeindex.Despitethedeclines,thesurveysarenotindicativeofamajorglobaldownturnatthepresenttime.

CHART1:GECSglobalbusinessconfidence

2011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Source:ACCA/IMA(2024)

Headlineinflationhasfallenbacksharplyinmostcountries

acrosstheglobeoverthepast12months,andcoreinflation

hasalsocomedownmateriallyinmany.Ofthetwomajor

advancedeconomies,headlineinflationiscurrently3.4%intheU.S.and2.9%intheeuroarea–welldownfromrecentpeaksofaround9%and11%respectively.Nevertheless,amidthe

recentrisesinheadlineinflationinbothcountriesinDecember,ratherstubbornservicesectorinflation(seeChart2),andan

elevatedriskofsupplyshocksamidthecurrentgeopolitical

backdrop,itcouldberiskyforthecentralbankstodeclare

imminentvictoryintheirbattlesagainstinflation.Indeed,

accordingtoglobalaccountantswhorespondedtoourGECSsurvey,concernsaboutcostsremainelevatedbyhistorical

standards(ACCA/IMA,2024).Withoutamorematerialeasinginjobmarkets,thereremainsasignificantriskthatthelastmileforcentralbanksingettinginflationsustainablybacktotheirtargets,couldprovetobethehardest.

CHART2:Servicesectorinflation

199019941998200220062010201420182022

Source:ASRLtd./LSEGDatastream(2024)

Amidtheimprovinginflationbackdrop,financialmarketshavepivotedtopricing-inamaterialamountofinterestratecutsthisyearinthemajoradvancedeconomies,withsomeobservers

evenexpectingcutsasearlyasthecurrentquarter.Athis

Decemberpressconference,FedChairJeromePowelladoptedasurprisinglydovishstance,andtheSummaryofEconomic

Projectionssuggestedthatthecommitteeexpectsthreeinterestratecutsin2024(FederalReserveBoard,2023),albeitstill

aroundhalfthenumbercurrentlyexpectedbyfinancialmarkets.TheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB)andtheBankofEngland

(BoE)adoptedmorehawkishposturesinDecember,althoughECBPresidentChristineLagardehassubsequentlysuggestedthatmonetaryeasingcouldbegininthesummer.Reflecting

thechangeinmarketexpectationsaroundcentralbanks,

particularlytheFed,therehasbeenquiteamaterialeasinginglobalfinancialconditionssincelateOctober,with10-yearU.S.Treasuryyieldsfallingsharply,theS&P500risingstrongly,andtheU.S.dollarweakeninginbroadtradeweightedterms.

2024GLOBALECONOMICOUTLOOK–SLOWGROWTH,HIGHUNCERTAINTY|SECTION1:PROSPECTSFORTHEGLOBALECONOMYIN2024

6

Focusingontheprospectsfor2024,globalgrowthislikely

tocomeinmateriallybelowitsaverageonceagain,witha

broadlysimilarpaceofexpansionaslastyear.TheWorldBankforecastsanincreaseof2.9%inglobalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)(seeTable1),whiletheOECDexpectsaslightlyslowergainof2.7%(OECD2023).Growthislikelytobewellbelow

itsaverageinadvancedeconomiesas,despitethelikelihoodofsomemonetaryeasing–probablybeginninginthe

summer,centralbanksmaintainrestrictivemonetarypoliciestoensurevictoryintheirbattlesagainstinflation.Meanwhile,fiscalpoliciesalsolooksettobecontractionaryinthemajoradvancedeconomies,whilepoliticaluncertainty,amidmajorelectionsthisyear,aswellaselevatedgeopoliticaltensions,couldweighonconfidenceandspending.

TABLE1:WorldBankeconomicforecasts

2022

2023E

2024E

World*

3.3

3

2.9

AEs

2.5

1.5

1.2

EMs

3.7

4

3.9

EMXC

4.2

3.2

3.5

China

3.0

5.2

4.5

U.S.

1.9

2.5

1.6

Euroarea

3.4

0.4

0.7

India**

7.2

6.3

6.4

Source:WorldBank2024

*‘World’isGDPgrowthbasedonPurchasingPowerParitycalculationmethodology.AEs=AdvancedEconomies,EMs=Emergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,EMXC=EMsexcludingChina

**TheIndianumbersarebasedonfiscalyears.

Similarly,growthinemergingeconomiesisgenerallyexpectedtobebelowitsaverage,althoughakeyfactorbehindthisis

theslowergrowthintheChineseeconomythantheheady

paceofpreviousdecades.Growthinemergingeconomies

excludingChinaisactuallyexpectedtoimprovemodestlyin

2024fromthatof2023,withtheWorldBankforecastinggrowthof3.5%in2024versus3.2%in2023.Clearly,anumberof

emerginganddevelopingcountrieswillremainunderpressure,givenslowgrowthintheadvancedeconomiesandtightglobalfinancialconditions,butanumberofimportantcountries

arelikelytoregisteraprettysolidperformancein2024.For

example,theWorldBankforecastsgrowthof6.4%,4.9%,4.1%,2.6%and2.6%inIndia,Indonesia,SaudiArabia,Polandand

Mexico,respectively.ThestartofpolicyeasingbytheFedshouldprovehelpfulforemergingeconomies,aswouldanyfurtherweakeningintheU.S.dollar.

THERISKSTOGLOBAL

GROWTHREMAINTOTHE

DOWNSIDETHISYEAR,AMIDAWORLDCHARACTERISEDBYSIGNIFICANTUNCERTAINTY

ANDPOTENTIALVOLATILITY.

Theriskstoglobalgrowthremaintothedownsidethisyear,amidaworldcharacterisedbysignificantuncertaintyand

potentialvolatility.Theseincludeamajorriskthatthelaggedimpactofglobalmonetarytighteningcouldleadtoaharderlandingintheadvancedeconomies,and/ormajorfinancial

stresses.Thisriskisperhapsnotquiteasheightenedas

lookedlikelyinlateautumn,amidthesubsequentsomewhatlooseninginglobalfinancialconditions,arisingchanceofasoftlandingfortheU.S.economy,andgivenwhatlookslikeapivottowardsmonetaryeasingbyadvancedeconomies’

centralbanksthisyear.Nevertheless,ifinflationremains

stubborn,forcingamajorrepricingoffinancialmarket

expectationsforinterestrates,thenthemagnitudeofthisriskwouldincreaseagain.

Meanwhile,geopoliticalriskshavebecomeevenmoreelevatedinrecentmonths,witharisingriskofabroaderescalationof

theconflictintheMiddleEast.TheattacksbyHouthirebels

havealreadyfuelledasharpdeclineinshippingthroughthe

SuezCanal(seeChart3),andeventsintheMiddleEastclearlyhavethepotentialtocausealargeincreaseinenergyprices

andglobalshippingcosts.Thiswouldclearlybeverydamagingforbusinessandconsumerconfidence,andwouldgreatly

complicatecentralbanks’taskofgettinginflationsustainablydowntotheirtargets.Elsewhere,theconflictbetweenRussiaandUkrainecontinuestoexacerbatethegeopoliticalsituation.

CHART3:GlobalshippingcapacitypassingthroughtheSuezCanal

20192020202120222023

Source:ASRLtd./LSEGDatastream/IMFPortWatch(2024)

2024GLOBALECONOMICOUTLOOK–SLOWGROWTH,HIGHUNCERTAINTY|SECTION1:PROSPECTSFORTHEGLOBALECONOMYIN2024

7

Politicalriskwillalsobeparticularlyheightenedin2024amid

suchanextremelybusyyearforelections(seeSection2:Key

eventsin2024–averypoliticalyear).AkeyfocusfortheglobaleconomyandfinancialmarketswillbetheU.S.election,withare-runofPresidentBidenversusformerPresidentTrump

seeminghighlylikely.Theresultwilllikelybeveryclose,with

opinionpollsinswingstatescurrentlysuggestingthattheformerpresidenthasaslightadvantage.AvictoryforDonaldTrump

couldhavemajorimplicationsforglobaltrade,geopoliticsandthegreentransition.Upsideriskstotheglobaleconomyin2024couldcomefromcontinuingrapidimprovementsininflation,

pavingthewayforquiteanearlyandsignificanteasingof

monetarypolicybycentralbanks.Ofcourse,thatcouldalsorisksowingtheseedsofhigherinflationin2025andbeyond.

Accordingtoour2023Q4GlobalRisksSurvey(ACCA/IMA,

2024),economic-relatedrisksremainedfirmlyinfirstplace

amongriskpriorities,althoughsuchconcernshadeased

slightlyfrompreviousquarters(seeChart4).Economic-relatedriskswererankedinfirstplaceby21%ofrespondentsworkinginfinancialservices,andby29%ofthoseworkinginthe

corporatesector.Overall,talentretentionremainedinsecondplacefollowedbyregulatorychange.Geopoliticalriskshaverisensignificantlyuptheranksofriskprioritiessince2022Q4.

Turningtothekeycountries,afterexpandingrobustlyin2023,theU.S.economyislikelytoslowmateriallyin2024.AccordingtothelatestSurveyofProfessionalForecasters,theU.S.is

expectedtogrowby1.7%in2024(FederalReserveBankof

Philadelphia2023),whichisbroadlysimilartotheWorldBankforecast(WorldBank2024).Despitethelikelihoodofapivot

tomonetaryeasingbytheFed,monetarypolicyislikelyto

remainrestrictiveamidelevatedrealinterestrates.Fiscalpolicyalsolookssettodragongrowththisyear(Brookings2023).

Meanwhile,thedwindlingofexcesssavingsbuiltupduring

thepandemicandslowingjobsandwagegrowthshouldhelptoslowconsumerspending.Nevertheless,itisnowlooking

likeabetterthanevenchancethattheFedmayachieveasoftlandingfortheeconomy,amidtheeasinginfinancialconditionsinrecentmonths(seeChart5),theimprovementintheinflationbackdrop,andgiventhelikelihoodofsomeinterestratecuts.

CHART5:U.S.Weightedaveragelendingrates

%

19982000200220042006200820102012201420162018202020222024

Source:ASRLtd./LSEGDatastream(2024)

CHART4:Top-rankedriskprioritiesin2023,accordingtoaccountancyandfinancialprofessionals

%

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Q4Q3Q2

Economicinflation/recession/

interestrates

Regulatory/

compliance/

legal

International

andgeopolitical

instability

Technology/

data/

cybersecurity

Misconduct/

fraud/

reputational

damage

Climatechange/

relatedregulation

/itssocialand

economicimpacts

Logistics/

supplychain

disruption/

supplyshortages

Withdrawaloffiscalmeasures/highertaxation

Currency,

includingcrypto,

digitalassets

andFX

Talentscarcity/skillsgaps/employee

retention

Source:ACCA/IMA(2024),ACCA/IMAGlobalRiskssurvey(2023)<

/gb/en/professional-insights/global-economics/GECS_q4_2023.html

>

2024GLOBALECONOMICOUTLOOK–SLOWGROWTH,HIGHUNCERTAINTY|SECTION1:PROSPECTSFORTHEGLOBALECONOMYIN2024

8

Intheeuroarea,theeconomicbackdropremainsratherbleak,withtheeconomycontractingby0.1%inQ3andbeingflat

inQ4.Tightmonetarypolicyhasweighedheavilyonbank

lendingandhousingmarkets,andthesoftglobaleconomy

hashurtexports.ECBestimatesalsosuggestthatfiscalpolicyislikelytobemeaningfullymorecontractionaryin2024.The

locomotivefortheregion’seconomy,Germany,isstruggling,astheriseinenergycostssinceRussia’sinvasionofUkraine

hasweighedonitsall-importantmanufacturingsector,as

hastheweakChineseeconomicrecoveryandthegrowing

competitionfromitsascendantelectricvehicleindustry.Onapositivenote,theregion’sjobsmarketremainstight(seeChart6),andrealincomegrowthhasturnedpositive.Thisshould

providesomesupporttotheconsumer,whilethebeginningofmonetaryeasingwillalsoprovidesomerelieftotheeconomy.Growthoverallin2024willbeweak,butshouldbemoderatelypositive.AccordingtotheECB’slatestSurveyofProfessionalForecasters,economistsexpectedanexpansionof0.6%in

2024(ECB2024),slightlylowerthantheWorldBank’sestimateof0.7%(WorldBank2024).

CHART6:Euroareaunemploymentrate

%

200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022

Source:Eurostat

ONAPOSITIVENOTE,THEREGION’SJOBSMARKET

REMAINSTIGHTANDREAL

INCOMEGROWTHHASTURNED

POSITIVE.THISSHOULD

PROVIDESOMESUPPORTTOTHECONSUMER,WHILETHEBEGINNINGOFMONETARY

EASINGWILLALSOPROVIDE

SOMERELIEFTOTHEECONOMY.

IntheUK,theeconomycontractedby0.1%inQ3,andanothersoftreadingseemslikelyinQ4.Growthislikelytobeweak

in2024amidtightmonetarypolicyandcontractionaryfiscal

policy,withthefreezeinincometaxandnationalinsurance

thresholds.Thatsaid,withanelectionlikelyintheautumn,thegovernmentwillusewhateverroomisavailableinitsupcomingMarchBudgettotryandreducethemagnitudeofthefiscal

dragsomewhat.Furthertaxcutsseemhighlylikely.Growth

willlikelybemoderatelypositivein2024,improvinggraduallyastheyearprogressesamidpositiverealincomegrowthandthelikelihoodofsomemonetaryeasing.InNovember2023,

theBoEandOfficeforBudgetResponsibility(OBR)forecast

growthof0%and0.7%respectively,in2024(BoE2023;OBR2023)whiletheaverageofindependentforecastscompiledbyHMTreasuryinJanuarywas0.4%(HMTreasury2024).

China’srecoveryafterexitingitsZeroCOVIDpolicieswas

weakerthanexpectedin2023,asproblemsintheall-importanthousingmarket,depressedconfidenceandweakexportsall

weighedontheeconomy.Therecentdatahasbeenquite

mixed,butthegovernmentstillachieveditsGDPgrowthtargetof‘a(chǎn)round5%’for2023withanexpansionof5.2%.Withthe

recoverystillquitetentative,problemswithhousing,rising

fearsofdeflationandlargeexternalrisks,furthermeasurestosupporthousing,monetaryeasingandincreasedfiscalstimulusseemlikelyin2024.Butthegovernmentstillseemskeento

avoidtheexcessivestimulusthathastypicallyoccurredinthepast.Withless-favourablebaseeffectsthisyearthanlast,itwillbedifficultforthegovernmenttoachievepastgrowthagain.InNovember,theOECDforecast2024growthof4.7%,and

theWorldBankexpectsanexpansionof4.5%(OECD2023;WorldBank2024).Developmentsinthehousingmarketandthespilloversfromthesetothewidereconomyandfinancialmarketsremainamajordownsiderisk.

Finally,theIndianeconomywasthebestperformingofthe

largeeconomiesin2023andisoncourseforanotheryearofstronggrowthin20241.TheNationalStatisticalOfficeexpectsgrowthofover7%infiscalyear2023-24,whilethegovernoroftheReserveBankofIndiasuggestedthatheseesgrowthof

7%infiscalyear2024-25–strongerthanWorldBankestimates(ShaktikantaDas2024).Reflectingthebullishbackdrop,

thestockmarkethassurgedclosetorecordhighs,andthe

purchasingmanager’ssurveysremainupbeat(S&PGlobal

2024c;2024d).Theeconomyislikelytocontinuetobenefit

fromstronginfrastructurespendingbythegovernment,solidservicesectorexports,andthediversificationofinternationalsupplychains.AModivictoryintheelectioncouldalsoreduceuncertaintyandspursomestrengtheninginprivatesector

investment.Developmentswithdomesticfoodprices,andinternationalenergyprices,remainkeyrisks,asalways.

1Note,forecastsfortheIndianeconomyareusuallymadeonafiscalyearbasis.Forexample,anannualforecastforcalendaryear2024,willbebasedonthefiscalyear2024/25.ThiswillrunfromthebeginningofApril2024totheendofMarch2025.

9

Section2:

Keyeventsin2024–averypoliticalyear

2024isanextremelybusyandimportantyearonthepoliticalfront,withtheworld’sfourlargest

democracies,India,theU.S.,IndonesiaandPakistan,amongothers,goingtothepolls(seeChart7).

CHART7:Keyeventcalendarfor2024

FEBRUARY

14February:IndonesiaPresidentialElection

8February:PakistanGeneralElection

MARCH

5March:

ChinaNationalPeople’sCongress

1March:IranLegislativeElection

10March:PortugalLegislativeElection

6March:UKBudget

17March:RussiaPresidentialElection

APRIL

10April:KoreaLegislativeElection

MAY

likelyApril–May:

IndiaGeneralElection

JUNE

2June:MexicoGeneralElection

6–9June:EuropeanParliamentElection

9June:BelgiumFederalElection

JULY

26July–11August:

Paris2024OlympicGames

AUGUST

betweenMay–August:SouthAfricaGeneralElection

likely2024:ChinaThirdPlenum

September:

GermanyRegionalElections

betweenSeptember–October:

SriLankaPresidentialElection

SEPTEMBER

likelyAutumn2024:

UKGeneralElection

OCTOBER

NOVEMBER

5November:

U.S.PresidentialElection

18–19November:

G20meeting,Brazil

11–24November:

COP29,Baku,Azerbaijan

DECEMBER

Source:National/InternationalsourcesandWikipedia

2024GLOBALECONOMICOUTLOOK–SLOWGROWTH,HIGHUNCERTAINTY|SECTION2:KEYEVENTSIN2024–AVERYPOLITICALYEAR

10

SincetheGlobalFinancialCrisisin2008–9,populistpoliticians,partiesandpolicieshavegenerallybeenontherise,particularlyinadvancedeconomies,exemplifiedbytheUK’sdecision

toleavetheEUandDonaldTrump’svictoryinthe2016U.S.

Presidentialelection.Thefirst-placefinishbyfar-rightcandidateGeertWildersintherecentDutchgeneralelectionsuggests

thatvoterconcernsaboutthecostofliving,immigrationandinternationaltrademayprovideafertilegroundforpopulist,anti-establishmentpoliticiansoverthecomingyear.

AbsolutelykeyfromaglobaleconomicandfinancialmarketperspectivewillbetheU.S.Presidentialelectionon5

November.Are-runof2020withPresidentJoeBidenpittedagainstformerPresidentTrumplookshighlylikely.PresidentBiden’spersonalapprovalratingsareverylow,andformerPresidentTrumphassmallleadsinbothnationalpolling

averagesand,importantly,inpollsinmostkeyswingstates(seeChart8).

CHART8:U.S.presidentialelection–pollingaverages

%

Biden

Trump

50

48

46

44

42

40

38

36

NationalArizonaGeorgiaMichiganNevadaPennsylvaniaWisconsin

Source:RealClearPolling(2024a)

National=RCPaverage10thDecember-16thJanuary,States=RCPaverageSeptember-January.Thenumbersdonotsumto100aspollingforothercandidateshasbeenexcluded.

ABSOLUTELYKEYFROM

AGLOBALECONOMIC

ANDFINANCIALMARKETPERSPECTIVEWILLBE

THEU.S.PRESIDENTIAL

ELECTIONON5NOVEMBER.

2024GLOBALECONOMICOUTLOOK–SLOWGROWTH,HIGHUNCERTAINTY|SECTION2:KEYEVENT