國際金融英文版.ppt

Chapter4 InternationalMonetarySystem DefinitionoftheInternationalMonetarySystem Internationalmonetarysystemisasetofconventions rules proceduresandinstitutionsthatgoverntheconductoffinancialrelationsbetweennations Internationalmonetarysystemisbasedontheexchangeratesystemadoptedbyindividualnations Theexchangeratesystemisasetofrulesgoverningthevalueofacurrencyrelativetoothercurrencies Thecenterpieceofthesystemistoselectaninternationalcurrencyasamediumofexchangeininternationalsettlements Commoditymoneysuchasgoldorsilverwerewidelyusedinhistory Goldorsilverwereinconvenienttocarryandimpracticalinsettlement Commodity backedmoneyreferstothebanknoteswhicharebackedbygoldorsilver Thebanknotescanbefreelyconvertedintogoldorsilver Fiatmoneyisinconvertiblemoneythatismadelegaltenderbygovernmentdecree Theonlythinggivesthemoneyvalueisthefaithplacedinitbythepeoplethatuseit Aninternationalmonetarysystemneedstosolvethefollowingproblems Aninternationalcurrency Thedeterminationoftheexchangerate Amechanismofbalance of paymentsadjustment TheClassicalGoldStandard 1876 1914 Thegoldstandardwasacommitmentbyparticipatingnationstofixthepriceoftheirdomesticcurrenciesintermsofaspecifiedamountofgold Thegovernmentannouncesthegoldparvaluewhichistheamountofitscurrencyneededtobuyoneounceofgold Therefore thegoldwastheinternationalcurrencyunderthegoldstandard GoldStandardandExchangeValues Peggingthevalueofeachcurrencytogoldestablishedanexchangeratesystem Thegoldparvaluedeterminedtheexchangeratebetweentwocurrenciesknownas mintparofexchange Sinceeachcountryhasthegoldparvalue theexchangeratewasthendeterminedbythegoldparvalueofeachcurrency Theexchangeratewasprettystablebecauseofthegoldimportandexportpoint Thegoldstandardwasregardedas fixedexchangerate system TheBOPdisequilibriumwascorrectedby Price specie flowmechanism Exampleofgoldexportandimport IfthegoldparvalueinNewZealandwasNZ 125 ounceandA 100 ounceinAustralia somintparofexchange 100 125 A 0 80 NZ Costsofgoldtransportation A 0 008 NZ Theexchangeratewouldfluctuatebetween 0 80 0 008 0 8008and 0 80 0 008 0 7920 8008and0 792arecalledgoldexportandimportpoints Price specie flowmechanism Rapidgrowthrate techinnovation OutputsincreasePricesfall ExportsriseImportsshrink BOPsurplusesGoldinflows MoneysupplyupPricesup ExportsdeclineImportsincrease BOPdeficitsGoldoutflows Performanceofthegoldstandard Long termpricestability lowerinflationrate 0 1 1880 1914 4 2 1946 1990 NocentralbankneededVulnerabletorealandmonetaryshocksInflationinonecountrywouldinfluenceprices moneysupplyandrealincomeofanothercountry Higherunemploymentrate6 8 1879 1913 5 6 1946 1990 Highercosttomaintainthesystem in1990thecostwouldbe 137billion Limitedsupplyofthegoldcanhampertherapidgrowthofinternationaltradeandinvestment TheInternationalMonetarySystemfrom1914to1944 WorldWarIinterruptedtradeandthefreemovementofgold Maincountriessuspendedconvertibilityofgold Theyalsoimposedembargoesongoldexports Exchangeratewerefluctuatedoverfairlywiderangesbecauseofthepredatorydevaluationofthedomesticcurrency Goldexchangesystemwereadopted Othercountriesheldgold U S dollarsorBritishpoundsasreserves U S andU K heldgold U S andU K tradedgoldonlywithforeigncentralbanks notprivatecitizens From1934totheendoftheWar countriesadoptedpaperstandard thegoldstandardwasvirtuallyabandoned Theinternationaltradeandinvestmentdeclinedtoahistoricallowlevelwiththeprotectionistpoliciesadoptedbymanycountries BrettonWoodsSystem 1944 1971 BrettonWoodsAgreementwastodesignanewinternationalmonetarysystem Internationalmonetaryfund IMF tolendtomembercountriesexperiencingashortageofforeignexchangereservesTheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment IBRD Worldbank tofinancepostwarreconstruction GATT WTO topromotethereductionoftradebarriersandsettletradedisputesPeggedexchangeratesystemUSdollarwastheinternationalcurrency EachcountrypeggedthevalueoftheircurrenciestotheUSdollar USdollarwaspeggedtothegold 35 ounce Paritybandwaswithin1 oneitherside Thepeggedvaluewasadjustable TheBrettonWoodsSystem Thevalueofthedollarwaspeggedtogoldandthedollarwasconvertibletogoldatthemintparityrate Apeggedexchangeratesysteminwhichacountrypegsthevalueofitscurrencytothecurrencyofanothernation Inpracticeadollar exchange ratesystemasnationspeggedtothedollarandfreelyexchangedthedomesticcurrencyforthedollarattheparityrate TriffindilemmaTheU S wouldneitherrunBOPsurplusofdeficits IfU S keepsBOPsurplus therewouldnotbeenoughinternationalcurrencyforworldtradeandinternationalinvestment IfU S haslongtermBOPdeficit peoplewilllosetheconfidencetothedollar DeclineofBrettonWoodssystemEuropeanandJapaneseeconomygrewfast USdollarswerebeingspentoverseas intheformofforeignaid defensespending trade investmentandtourism U S ranBOPdeficitsin1960s capitalaccount Dollarcrises 1965 1968 WorseningsituationinVietnamRumorstheUSintendtoeliminatethegoldreserverequirementagainstdeposits notesFrenchverbalattacksontheUSdollardrasticincreaseinpurchasesofgold 1968 Goldpoolclosedin1968 U S BalanceofPayments1959 1973 billions ThebreakdownoftheBrettonWoodssystemU S suspendedtheconvertibilityofthedollarintogoldin1971 Anemergency10 tariffonallUSimportsPriceandwagecontrolstostabilizeinflationThosemeasuresofficiallybrokeoffthelinkbetweentheU S dollarandthegold TheBrettonWoodssystemwascallapsed Smithsonianagreement Dec 1971 G 10metinSmithsonianInstituteinDecember1971toreachtheagreement Devaluedollaragainstgold 35to 38 Revalueothercurrenciesagainstdollar 8 Paritybandwidened 1 to 2 25 U S remove10 tariffAftertheSmithsonianagreement majorcurrencieswereallowedtofluctuate TheoilcrisisanditsaftermathIn1973 OPECquadrupledtheoilpricewhichhadahugeimpactontheworldeconomyandeffectivelyendedanyhopesofrestoringafixedexchangeratesystem LDCswerehardhitbothbyhighoilpricesandrecessionintheindustrializedcountries OilimportingcountriessuchasJapanandUKsufferedgreatlyfromtheshock TherealpriceofOPECcrudeoil Globalcurre