下載本文檔
版權(quán)說(shuō)明:本文檔由用戶提供并上傳,收益歸屬內(nèi)容提供方,若內(nèi)容存在侵權(quán),請(qǐng)進(jìn)行舉報(bào)或認(rèn)領(lǐng)
文檔簡(jiǎn)介
1、物流與供應(yīng)鏈管理、沖浪板等水上運(yùn)動(dòng)裝備的設(shè)計(jì)和制造商。比恩公司的需求需側(cè)(女士紅色滑雪衫Bean公司訂貨數(shù)量與總體預(yù)期收益關(guān)系曲線 Impact of Improving Forecasts (ExampleImpact of Improving Forecasts成本/收益預(yù)測(cè)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差為了滿足即將到來(lái)的冬季對(duì)羊絨披肩的需求,塞克斯公司的采2010/11/19 Quick Response Set of actions taken by managers to reduce lead time Reduced lead time results in improved forecasts Ty
2、pical example of quick response is multiple orders in one season for retail items (such as fashion clothing For example, a buyer can usually make very accurate forecasts after the fi t week or two in a season ft th first k t i Multiple orders are only possible if the lead time is reduced otherwise t
3、here wouldnt be enough time to get the later orders before the season ends Quick Response: Multiple Orders Per Season Ordering shawls at a department store Selling season = 14 weeks Cost per handbag = $40 Sale price = $150 Disposal price = $30 Holding cost = $2 per week Benefits: Lower order quantit
4、ies availability Less overstock Higher profits 12-31 less inventory, same product Expected weekly demand = 20 SD of weekly demand = 15 12-32 Impact of Quick Response Single Order Two Orders in Season Average Ending Expect. Invent. Profit Total Order 349 69 $26,590 342 332 319 313 302 60 52 43 36 32
5、$27,085 $27 085 $27,154 $26,944 $27,413 $26,916 Service Order Ending Expect. Initial OUL Level Size Invent. Profit Order for 2nd Order 0.96 378 97 $23,624 209 209 0.94 0 94 0.91 0.87 0.81 0.75 367 355 343 329 317 86 73 66 55 41 $24,034 $24 034 201 $24,617 193 $24,386 184 $24,609 174 $25,205 166 201
6、193 184 174 166 (1在相同的周期供給水平下,在銷售季節(jié)里分兩次訂購(gòu) 的預(yù)期總總訂貨量少于 次訂購(gòu)的預(yù)期總訂貨量。換句話說(shuō)如果允許在銷售 季節(jié)里訂購(gòu)后續(xù)的第二批貨 物,那么公司就課能以更少的庫(kù)存量向顧客提供向樣的 能 庫(kù)存 向 客 向樣 產(chǎn)品供給水平。 (2如果允許分兩次訂貨,那么在銷售季節(jié)結(jié)束時(shí)需要處 理的平均庫(kù)存剩余量少 一次訂貨時(shí)的平均庫(kù)存剩余量。 (3如果允許在銷售季節(jié)分兩次訂貨,那么其利潤(rùn)高于 一次訂貨時(shí)的利潤(rùn)。 12-33 Forecast Improves for Second Order (SD=3 Instead of 15 Single Order Two O
7、rders in Season Average Ending Expect. Total Invent. Profit Order 292 19 $27,007 293 288 288 283 282 18 17 14 14 14 $27,371 $26,946 $27,583 $27,162 $27,268 Service Order Ending Expect. Initial OUL Level Size Invent. Profit Order for 2nd Order 0.96 378 96 $23,707 209 153 0.94 0.91 0.87 0.81 0.75 367
8、355 343 329 317 84 76 63 52 44 $24,303 201 $24,154 193 $24,807 184 $24,998 174 $24,887 166 152 150 148 146 145 12-36 6 2010/11/19 Postponement 快速反應(yīng)帶來(lái)什么問(wèn)題? Delay of product differentiation until closer to the time of the sale of the product All activities prior to product differentiation require aggr
9、egate forecasts more accurate than individual product forecasts Individual product forecasts are needed close to the time of sale demand is known with better accuracy (lower uncertainty Results in a better match of supply and demand Valuable in e-commerce time lag between when an order is placed and
10、 when customer receives the order (this delay is expected by the customer and can be used for postponement Higher profits, better match of supply and demand 12-38 延遲策略: 1、延遲策略是指將產(chǎn)品的差異性延遲到接近產(chǎn)品銷售時(shí) 才發(fā)生。 集中預(yù)測(cè)、預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性比單個(gè)產(chǎn)品的高 2、延遲策略可以成為增加贏利能力的 個(gè)有效管理杠桿 2、延遲策略可以成為增加贏利能力的一個(gè)有效管理杠桿 3、延遲策略的最大益處來(lái)自于供給與需求的匹配水平的 提高。
11、4、采用延遲策略的產(chǎn)品成本要比不采用延遲策略的產(chǎn)品 成本高。 5、延遲策略對(duì)于那些銷售多種產(chǎn)品、產(chǎn)品的市場(chǎng)需求量 較大且互不影響的公司頗有價(jià)值 案例分析一: 貝納通公司是一家生產(chǎn)針織服裝的公司,它可以采用二 種方式生產(chǎn)服裝。第一種:先對(duì)棉紗進(jìn)行染色,然后再 編織成衣。第二種:先編織成衣,然后進(jìn)行染色零售價(jià) P=50 美元。第一種方法成本 20美元 第二種方法 P 50 美元 第 種方法成本 c=20美元,第二種方法 c=22美元,殘值s=10美元。生產(chǎn)周期為 20 周,需求均值 為1000,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差為500 問(wèn)題:延遲策略的收益增加量? Value of Postponement: Benett
12、on For each color Mean demand = 1,000; SD = 500 For each garment Sale price = $50 Salvage value = $10 Production cost using Option 1 (long lead time = $20 Production cost using Option 2 (uncolored thread = $22 紅色針織衫的市場(chǎng)需求量服從均值3100,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差 為800的正態(tài)分布,其他三種顏色的針織衫的市 場(chǎng)需求服從均值為300,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差為200的正態(tài)分布 。 零售價(jià) P=50 美元 第一種方
13、法成本 c=20美元,第二種方法 c=22美 元 殘值s=10美元 問(wèn)題:延遲策略的收益增加量? What is the value of postponement? Expected profit increases from $94,576 to $98,092 12-41 7 2010/11/19 Value of Postponement with Dominant Product Color with dominant demand: Mean = 3,100, SD = 800 Other three colors: Mean = 300, SD = 200 Expected pr
14、ofit without postponement = $102,205 Expected profit with postponement = $99,872 案例分析三: 問(wèn)題: 1、能否采用量身定做的延遲策略,即對(duì)于不確 定的 市場(chǎng)需求,公司采用延遲策略進(jìn)行生產(chǎn),而對(duì)于 確定市場(chǎng) 需求,公司采用成本更低的生產(chǎn)方式進(jìn)行生產(chǎn)? 2、如果存在這樣的策略,如何進(jìn)行定量分析? 3、如何通過(guò)EXCEL表格來(lái)仿真這些策略 12-43 Tailored Postponement: Benetton Produce Q1 units for each color using Option 1 and QA
15、 units (aggregate using Option 2 Results: Q1 = 800 QA = 1,550 Profit = $104,603 Tailored Sourcing A firm uses a combination of two supply sources One is lower cost but is unable to deal with uncertainty well The other is more flexible, and can therefore deal with uncertainty, but is higher cost The
16、two sources must focus on different capabilities Depends on being able to have one source that faces very low uncertainty and can therefore reduce costs Increase profits, better match supply and demand Tailored postponement allows a firm to increase profits by postponing differentiation only for pro
17、ducts with the most uncertain demand; products with more predictable demand are produced at lower cost without 12-45 postponement 12-46 Tailored Sourcing Sourcing alternatives Low cost, long lead time supplier Cost = $245, Lead time = 9 weeks Tailored Sourcing Strategies Fraction of demand from over
18、seas supplier 0% 50% 60% 100% Annual Profit $37,250 $51,613 $51 613 $53,027 $48,875 High cost, short lead time supplier Cost = $250, Lead time = 1 week 12-47 12-48 8 2010/11/19 Tailored Sourcing: Multiple Sourcing Sites Characteristic Primary Site Secondary Site Low Low Low Low Dual Sourcing Strategies Strategy Primary Site Secondary Site Stable demand Predictable, large batch products Older stable products Manufacturing High Cost Flexibility High (Volume/Mix Responsiveness High Engineering Support 12-49 High Volume based Fluctuation dual sourcing P
溫馨提示
- 1. 本站所有資源如無(wú)特殊說(shuō)明,都需要本地電腦安裝OFFICE2007和PDF閱讀器。圖紙軟件為CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.壓縮文件請(qǐng)下載最新的WinRAR軟件解壓。
- 2. 本站的文檔不包含任何第三方提供的附件圖紙等,如果需要附件,請(qǐng)聯(lián)系上傳者。文件的所有權(quán)益歸上傳用戶所有。
- 3. 本站RAR壓縮包中若帶圖紙,網(wǎng)頁(yè)內(nèi)容里面會(huì)有圖紙預(yù)覽,若沒(méi)有圖紙預(yù)覽就沒(méi)有圖紙。
- 4. 未經(jīng)權(quán)益所有人同意不得將文件中的內(nèi)容挪作商業(yè)或盈利用途。
- 5. 人人文庫(kù)網(wǎng)僅提供信息存儲(chǔ)空間,僅對(duì)用戶上傳內(nèi)容的表現(xiàn)方式做保護(hù)處理,對(duì)用戶上傳分享的文檔內(nèi)容本身不做任何修改或編輯,并不能對(duì)任何下載內(nèi)容負(fù)責(zé)。
- 6. 下載文件中如有侵權(quán)或不適當(dāng)內(nèi)容,請(qǐng)與我們聯(lián)系,我們立即糾正。
- 7. 本站不保證下載資源的準(zhǔn)確性、安全性和完整性, 同時(shí)也不承擔(dān)用戶因使用這些下載資源對(duì)自己和他人造成任何形式的傷害或損失。
最新文檔
- 打包機(jī)培訓(xùn)材料
- 承包商管理人員培訓(xùn)復(fù)習(xí)題
- 2024年醫(yī)療、外科及獸醫(yī)用器械項(xiàng)目合作計(jì)劃書
- 八年級(jí)上冊(cè)歷史知識(shí)點(diǎn)提升練習(xí)02-全練版:第15課國(guó)共合作與北伐戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)
- 教育機(jī)構(gòu)裝修終止合同范本
- 餐飲場(chǎng)所裝修施工協(xié)議
- 科技園區(qū)裝修施工合同
- 蔬菜加工企業(yè)配送合作協(xié)議
- 教育設(shè)施搬遷運(yùn)輸合同
- 馬術(shù)俱樂(lè)部土方回填協(xié)議
- 高中語(yǔ)文:文化常識(shí)選擇題100道
- 河南省洛陽(yáng)市2022-2023學(xué)年高二上學(xué)期期中考試生物試卷(含答案)
- 卡車基本構(gòu)造知識(shí)
- (完整版)裝配工藝通用要求
- 美國(guó)簽證提交簡(jiǎn)歷中英文樣板---Sample-Resume-(使館提供)
- 自動(dòng)化練習(xí)題庫(kù).doc
- 一線員工分級(jí)與技能矩陣應(yīng)用管理方案計(jì)劃辦法
- 學(xué)校、家庭、社會(huì)三位一體育人網(wǎng)絡(luò)圖(共2頁(yè))
- 學(xué)校關(guān)于體育傳統(tǒng)項(xiàng)目工作的管理辦法和規(guī)章制度
- 水環(huán)境監(jiān)測(cè)PPT課件
- 2022年廣東省深圳市南山外國(guó)語(yǔ)學(xué)校高三英語(yǔ)期末試題含解析
評(píng)論
0/150
提交評(píng)論