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1、Eviews 格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果說明一、經(jīng)濟(jì)變量之間的因果性問題計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型的建立過程,本質(zhì)上是用回歸分析工具處理一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)變量對(duì)其他經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的依存性問題,但這并不是暗示這個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)變量與其他經(jīng)濟(jì)變量間必然存在著因果關(guān)系。由于沒有因果關(guān)系的變量之間常常有很好的回歸擬合,把回歸模型的解釋變量與被解釋變量倒過來也能夠擬合得很好,因此回歸分析本身不能檢驗(yàn)因果關(guān)系的存在性,也無法識(shí)別因果關(guān)系的方向。假設(shè)兩個(gè)變量,比如國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值 GD 厲口廣義貨幣供給量M各自都有滯后的分量GDP(-1),GDP(2),M(-1),M(-2),顯然這兩個(gè)變量都存在著相互影響的關(guān)系。但現(xiàn)在的問題是:究竟是 M 引起 GDP

2、 勺變化,還是 GDPI 起 M 的變化,或者兩者間相互影響都存在反饋,即 M 引起 GDP 勺變化,同時(shí) GD 也引起 M 的變化。這些問題的實(shí)質(zhì)是在兩個(gè)變量間存在時(shí)間上的先后關(guān)系時(shí),是否能夠從統(tǒng)計(jì)意義上檢驗(yàn)出因果性的方向,即在統(tǒng)計(jì)上確定 GDPtM 的因,還是 M 是 GDP 勺因,或者 M 和 GDPS 為因果。因果關(guān)系研究的有趣例子是回答“先有雞還是先有蛋”的問題。1988 年有兩位學(xué)者 WalterN.Thurman 和 MarkE.Fisher 用美國(guó) 19301983 年雞蛋產(chǎn)量(EGGS)口雞的產(chǎn)量(CHICKENS 的年度數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)此問題進(jìn)行了統(tǒng)計(jì)研究。他們運(yùn)用格蘭杰的方法檢驗(yàn)

3、雞和蛋之間的因果關(guān)系,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),雞生蛋的假設(shè)被拒絕,而蛋生雞的假設(shè)成立,因此,蛋為因,雞為果,也就是先有蛋。他們并建議作其他諸如“誰(shuí)笑在最后誰(shuí)笑得最好”、“驕傲是失敗之母”之類的格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)。二、格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)strengthenthesenseofresponsibility,worktosolvethelackofdecentoccupationexplainaway,conductproblems.Toestablishtheoverallconcept,eliminatedepartmentalism.Strictassessmentandaccountability,tosol

4、vethespiritualslack,nianqingpazhong,statusquo,andotherissues.ToestablishandperfectthemuddlealongBureaustaffconductworkregulations,standardizethebehaviorofpersonnel.2.Tostrengthentheresponsibilitysystem.Oneisthein-depthstudyandimplementtheHunanprovincialPartyandgovernmentleadingcadresInterimProvision

5、sontheworksafetyofapairof(HunanOfficeissued2013No.5),Hunanprovincesafetysupervisionandmanagementresponsibilitiesoftheprovisionsontheproduction(HunanZhengbanmade2013No.4)Andresolutelyimplementthesafetyproductionofthepartywithresponsibility,apairofresponsibility.Twoisissuedsafetyproductionadministrati

6、onandinspectiontopromotetheresponsibilitiesbearsafetyproductionsupervisiondepartmentsstrictlyandeffectivelyassumedresponsibility.Thethreeistoestablishriskselfcorrectionselfreportingsystemforsafetyinproductionenterprises,promotetheenterprisestoimplementthemainresponsibilityforproductionsafetyisintrod

7、uced.Fourstrengthenthecountysafetyproductionsupervisionabilityconstructionwork,promotesafeproductionresponsibilitytothegrassroots.3,strictaccountabilityandtargetmanagement.Adheretothewhoisincharge,whoisresponsibleforthepipeindustrymustbesafe,GuanShengproductionandoperationmustbesafe,pipebusinessmust

8、controlsecurityprinciple,theimplementationofsafetyTheproductionofcure.stagnationsupervisionandleadershipresponsiblesystem.Thesafetyproductionofkeytowns,keyenterprisesandkeyproblems,bythetownshipgovernmentandtheDepartmentresponsibleforthestagnationledthelumpsum,totackletough.Tofurtherincreasetheprodu

9、ctionsafetyindexassessment,strictlyimplementthesafetyproductionoftheonevotevetoandtherewardsystem,strengthenthesafetyincentiveandrestraintmechanism.(six)theimplementationoftheworkforceisnotstrong.Thedocuments,meeting,longworkarrangement,checkandsupervisetheimplementationofsmall,poorimplementationoft

10、hesystem,theworkisnoteffective.Someleadingcadressenseofpurpose,consciousnessofthemassesisnotstrong,therulingForthepeople,theinterestsofthemassesnomatterconceptunderstandingisnotinplace.Thespecificworktreatswiththedeployment,afewleadingcadrescomplainthatworkistoocomplicated,toomuchresponsibility,thep

11、ressureistoolarge,toomuchemphasisonthedifficultyofthework,suchasundergroundminestoavoidthedisasterofsixsystemsconstructionandconstructionofmechanicalventilationtofiletheform,forwardingarrangementswork,noin-depthminingenterprisestopromotethespecificwork,theincreaseinthenumberoffiles,buttheeffectisnot

12、good,notaccordingtotheactualsituationofnoncoalminesinthecounty,toengageinacrosstheboard,andthequality經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家開拓了一種可以用來分析變量之間的因果的辦法, 即格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)。 該檢驗(yàn)方法為 2003 年諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)得主克萊夫?格蘭杰(CliveW.J.Granger)所開創(chuàng),用于分析經(jīng)濟(jì)變量之間的因果關(guān)系。他給因果關(guān)系的定義為“依賴于使用過去某些時(shí)點(diǎn)上所有信息的最佳最小二乘預(yù)測(cè)的方差。”在時(shí)間序列情形下,兩個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)變量 X、Y 之間的格蘭杰因果關(guān)系定義為:若在包含了變量 X、Y的過去信息的條

13、件下, 對(duì)變量Y的預(yù)測(cè)效果要優(yōu)于只單獨(dú)由Y的過去信息對(duì)Y進(jìn)行的預(yù)測(cè)效果,即變量 X 有助于解釋變量 Y 的將來變化,則認(rèn)為變量 X 是引致變量 Y 的格蘭杰原因。進(jìn)行格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)的一個(gè)前提條件是時(shí)間序列必須具有平穩(wěn)性,否則可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)虛假回歸問題。因此在進(jìn)行格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)之前首先應(yīng)對(duì)各指標(biāo)時(shí)間序列的平穩(wěn)性進(jìn)行單位根檢驗(yàn)(unitroottest)。常用增廣的迪基一富勒檢驗(yàn)(ADF 檢驗(yàn))來分別對(duì)各指標(biāo)序列的平穩(wěn)性進(jìn)行單位根檢驗(yàn)。格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)假設(shè)了有關(guān) y 和 x 每一變量的預(yù)測(cè)的信息全部包含在這些變量的時(shí)間序列之中。檢驗(yàn)要求估計(jì)以下的回歸:必=9 再口+工月必一,十%i-l1(1

14、)3J芍=Z 耐力+勵(lì) Ii-lMl(2)其中白噪音 u 和 u 假定為不相關(guān)的。1t2t式(1)假定當(dāng)前 y 與 y 自身以及 x 的過去值有關(guān),而式(2)對(duì) x 也假定了類似的行為。對(duì)式(1)而言,其零假設(shè) H:a=a=-=a=00012qstrengthenthesenseofresponsibility,worktosolvethelackofdecentoccupationexplainaway,conductproblems.Toestablishtheoverallconcept,eliminatedepartmentalism.Strictassessmentandaccoun

15、tability,tosolvethespiritualslack,nianqingpazhong,statusquo,andotherissues.ToestablishandperfectthemuddlealongBureaustaffconductworkregulations,standardizethebehaviorofpersonnel.2.Tostrengthentheresponsibilitysystem.Oneisthein-depthstudyandimplementtheHunanprovincialPartyandgovernmentleadingcadresIn

16、terimProvisionsontheworksafetyofapairof(HunanOfficeissued2013No.5),Hunanprovincesafetysupervisionandmanagementresponsibilitiesoftheprovisionsontheproduction(HunanZhengbanmade2013No.4)Andresolutelyimplementthesafetyproductionofthepartywithresponsibility,apairofresponsibility.Twoisissuedsafetyproducti

17、onadministrationandinspectiontopromotetheresponsibilitiesbearsafetyproductionsupervisiondepartmentsstrictlyandeffectivelyassumedresponsibility.Thethreeistoestablishriskselfcorrectionselfreportingsystemforsafetyinproductionenterprises,promotetheenterprisestoimplementthemainresponsibilityforproduction

18、safetyisintroduced.Fourstrengthenthecountysafetyproductionsupervisionabilityconstructionwork,promotesafeproductionresponsibilitytothegrassroots.3,strictaccountabilityandtargetmanagement.Adheretothewhoisincharge,whoisresponsibleforthepipeindustrymustbesafe,GuanShengproductionandoperationmustbesafe,pi

19、pebusinessmustcontrolsecurityprinciple,theimplementationofsafetyTheproductionofcure.stagnationsupervisionandleadershipresponsiblesystem.Thesafetyproductionofkeytowns,keyenterprisesandkeyproblems,bythetownshipgovernmentandtheDepartmentresponsibleforthestagnationledthelumpsum,totackletough.Tofurtherin

20、creasetheproductionsafetyindexassessment,strictlyimplementthesafetyproductionoftheonevotevetoandtherewardsystem,strengthenthesafetyincentiveandrestraintmechanism.(six)theimplementationoftheworkforceisnotstrong.Thedocuments,meeting,longworkarrangement,checkandsupervisetheimplementationofsmall,poorimp

21、lementationofthesystem,theworkisnoteffective.Someleadingcadressenseofpurpose,consciousnessofthemassesisnotstrong,therulingForthepeople,theinterestsofthemassesnomatterconceptunderstandingisnotinplace.Thespecificworktreatswiththedeployment,afewleadingcadrescomplainthatworkistoocomplicated,toomuchrespo

22、nsibility,thepressureistoolarge,toomuchemphasisonthedifficultyofthework,suchasundergroundminestoavoidthedisasterofsixsystemsconstructionandconstructionofmechanicalventilationtofiletheform,forwardingarrangementswork,noin-depthminingenterprisestopromotethespecificwork,theincreaseinthenumberoffiles,but

23、theeffectisnotgood,notaccordingtotheactualsituationofnoncoalminesinthecounty,toengageinacrosstheboard,andthequality對(duì)式(2)而言,其零假設(shè) H:6=6=&=00011s分四種情形討論:(1)x 是引起 y 變化的原因,即存在由 x 到 y 的單向因果關(guān)系。若式(1)中滯后的 x 的系數(shù)估計(jì)值在統(tǒng)計(jì)上整體的顯著不為零, 同時(shí)式(2)中滯后的y的系數(shù)估計(jì)值在統(tǒng)計(jì)上整體的顯著為零,則稱 x 是引起 y 變化的原因。(2)y 是引起 x 變化的原因,即存在由 y 到 x 的單向因

24、果關(guān)系。若式(2)中滯后的 y 的系數(shù)估計(jì)值在統(tǒng)計(jì)上整體的顯著不為零,同時(shí)式(1)中滯后的 x 的系數(shù)估計(jì)值在統(tǒng)計(jì)上整體的顯著為零,則稱 y 是引起 x 變化的原因。(3)x 和 y 互為因果關(guān)系,即存在由 x 到 y 的單向因果關(guān)系,同時(shí)也存在由 y 到 x 的單向因果關(guān)系。若式(1)中滯后的 x 的系數(shù)估計(jì)值在統(tǒng)計(jì)上整體的顯著不為零,同時(shí)式(2)中滯后的 y的系數(shù)估計(jì)值在統(tǒng)計(jì)上整體的顯著不為零,則稱 x 和 y 問存在反饋關(guān)系,或者雙向因果關(guān)系。(4)x 和 y 是獨(dú)立的,或 x 與 y 間不存在因果關(guān)系。若式(1)中滯后的 x 的系數(shù)估計(jì)值在統(tǒng)計(jì)上整體的顯著為零,同時(shí)式(2)中滯后的 y

25、 的系數(shù)估計(jì)值在統(tǒng)計(jì)上整體的顯著為零,則稱 x和 y 間不存在因果關(guān)系。三、格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)的步驟(1)將當(dāng)前的 y 對(duì)所有的滯后項(xiàng) y 以及別的什么變量(如果有的話)做回歸, 即 y 對(duì) y 的滯后項(xiàng) y,y,,y 及其他變量的回歸,但在這一回歸中沒有把滯后項(xiàng) x 包括進(jìn) t-1t-2t-q來,這是一個(gè)受約束的回歸。然后從此回歸得到受約束的殘差平方和 RSSR(2)做一個(gè)含有滯后項(xiàng) x 的回歸,即在前面的回歸式中加進(jìn)滯后項(xiàng) x,這是一個(gè)無約束的回歸,由此回歸得到無約束的殘差平方和 RSSUR(3)零假設(shè)是 H:a=a=-=a=0,即滯后項(xiàng) x 不屬于此回歸。012qstrengthenth

26、esenseofresponsibility,worktosolvethelackofdecentoccupationexplainaway,conductproblems.Toestablishtheoverallconcept,eliminatedepartmentalism.Strictassessmentandaccountability,tosolvethespiritualslack,nianqingpazhong,statusquo,andotherissues.ToestablishandperfectthemuddlealongBureaustaffconductworkre

27、gulations,standardizethebehaviorofpersonnel.2.Tostrengthentheresponsibilitysystem.Oneisthein-depthstudyandimplementtheHunanprovincialPartyandgovernmentleadingcadresInterimProvisionsontheworksafetyofapairof(HunanOfficeissued2013No.5),Hunanprovincesafetysupervisionandmanagementresponsibilitiesofthepro

28、visionsontheproduction(HunanZhengbanmade2013No.4)Andresolutelyimplementthesafetyproductionofthepartywithresponsibility,apairofresponsibility.Twoisissuedsafetyproductionadministrationandinspectiontopromotetheresponsibilitiesbearsafetyproductionsupervisiondepartmentsstrictlyandeffectivelyassumedrespon

29、sibility.Thethreeistoestablishriskselfcorrectionselfreportingsystemforsafetyinproductionenterprises,promotetheenterprisestoimplementthemainresponsibilityforproductionsafetyisintroduced.Fourstrengthenthecountysafetyproductionsupervisionabilityconstructionwork,promotesafeproductionresponsibilitytotheg

30、rassroots.3,strictaccountabilityandtargetmanagement.Adheretothewhoisincharge,whoisresponsibleforthepipeindustrymustbesafe,GuanShengproductionandoperationmustbesafe,pipebusinessmustcontrolsecurityprinciple,theimplementationofsafetyTheproductionofcure.stagnationsupervisionandleadershipresponsiblesyste

31、m.Thesafetyproductionofkeytowns,keyenterprisesandkeyproblems,bythetownshipgovernmentandtheDepartmentresponsibleforthestagnationledthelumpsum,totackletough.Tofurtherincreasetheproductionsafetyindexassessment,strictlyimplementthesafetyproductionoftheonevotevetoandtherewardsystem,strengthenthesafetyinc

32、entiveandrestraintmechanism.(six)theimplementationoftheworkforceisnotstrong.Thedocuments,meeting,longworkarrangement,checkandsupervisetheimplementationofsmall,poorimplementationofthesystem,theworkisnoteffective.Someleadingcadressenseofpurpose,consciousnessofthemassesisnotstrong,therulingForthepeople

33、,theinterestsofthemassesnomatterconceptunderstandingisnotinplace.Thespecificworktreatswiththedeployment,afewleadingcadrescomplainthatworkistoocomplicated,toomuchresponsibility,thepressureistoolarge,toomuchemphasisonthedifficultyofthework,suchasundergroundminestoavoidthedisasterofsixsystemsconstructi

34、onandconstructionofmechanicalventilationtofiletheform,forwardingarrangementswork,noin-depthminingenterprisestopromotethespecificwork,theincreaseinthenumberoffiles,buttheeffectisnotgood,notaccordingtotheactualsituationofnoncoalminesinthecounty,toengageinacrosstheboard,andthequality(4)為了檢驗(yàn)此假設(shè),用 F 檢驗(yàn),即

35、:一網(wǎng)它遵循自由度為 q 和(n-k)的 F 分布。在這里,n 是樣本容量,q 等于滯后項(xiàng) x 的個(gè)數(shù),即有約束回歸方程中待估參數(shù)的個(gè)數(shù),k 是無約束回歸中待估參數(shù)的個(gè)數(shù)。(5)如果在選定的顯著性水平 a 上計(jì)算的 F 值炒股臨界 Fa 值,則拒絕零假設(shè),這樣滯后 x 項(xiàng)就屬于此回歸,表明 x 是 y 的原因(6)同樣,為了檢驗(yàn) y 是否是 x 的原因,可將變量 y 與 x 相互替換,重復(fù)步驟,(5)。格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)對(duì)于滯后期長(zhǎng)度的選擇有時(shí)很敏感。其原因可能是被檢驗(yàn)變量的平穩(wěn)性的影響,或是樣本容量的長(zhǎng)度的影響。不同的滯后期可能會(huì)得到完全不同的檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果。因此,一般而言,常進(jìn)行不同滯后期長(zhǎng)度的

36、檢驗(yàn),以檢驗(yàn)?zāi)P椭须S機(jī)干擾項(xiàng)不存在序列相關(guān)的滯后期長(zhǎng)度來選取滯后期。格蘭杰檢驗(yàn)的特點(diǎn)決定了它只能適用于時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)模型的因果性檢驗(yàn),無法檢驗(yàn)只有橫截面數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)變量間的因果性??梢钥闯?,我們所使用的 Granger 因果檢驗(yàn)與其最初的定義已經(jīng)偏離甚遠(yuǎn),削減了很多條件(并且由回歸分析方法和 F 檢驗(yàn)的使用我們可以知道還增強(qiáng)了若干條件), 這很可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致虛假的因果關(guān)系。因此,在使用這種方法時(shí),務(wù)必檢查前提條件,使其盡量能夠滿足。止匕外, 統(tǒng)計(jì)方法并非萬(wàn)能的, 評(píng)判一個(gè)對(duì)象, 往往需要多種角度的觀察。 正所謂“兼聽則明,偏聽則暗。誠(chéng)然真相永遠(yuǎn)只有一個(gè),但是也要靠科學(xué)的探索方法。strengthenthe

37、senseofresponsibility,worktosolvethelackofdecentoccupationexplainaway,conductproblems.Toestablishtheoverallconcept,eliminatedepartmentalism.Strictassessmentandaccountability,tosolvethespiritualslack,nianqingpazhong,statusquo,andotherissues.ToestablishandperfectthemuddlealongBureaustaffconductworkreg

38、ulations,standardizethebehaviorofpersonnel.2.Tostrengthentheresponsibilitysystem.Oneisthein-depthstudyandimplementtheHunanprovincialPartyandgovernmentleadingcadresInterimProvisionsontheworksafetyofapairof(HunanOfficeissued2013No.5),Hunanprovincesafetysupervisionandmanagementresponsibilitiesoftheprov

39、isionsontheproduction(HunanZhengbanmade2013No.4)Andresolutelyimplementthesafetyproductionofthepartywithresponsibility,apairofresponsibility.Twoisissuedsafetyproductionadministrationandinspectiontopromotetheresponsibilitiesbearsafetyproductionsupervisiondepartmentsstrictlyandeffectivelyassumedrespons

40、ibility.Thethreeistoestablishriskselfcorrectionselfreportingsystemforsafetyinproductionenterprises,promotetheenterprisestoimplementthemainresponsibilityforproductionsafetyisintroduced.Fourstrengthenthecountysafetyproductionsupervisionabilityconstructionwork,promotesafeproductionresponsibilitytothegr

41、assroots.3,strictaccountabilityandtargetmanagement.Adheretothewhoisincharge,whoisresponsibleforthepipeindustrymustbesafe,GuanShengproductionandoperationmustbesafe,pipebusinessmustcontrolsecurityprinciple,theimplementationofsafetyTheproductionofcure.stagnationsupervisionandleadershipresponsiblesystem

42、.Thesafetyproductionofkeytowns,keyenterprisesandkeyproblems,bythetownshipgovernmentandtheDepartmentresponsibleforthestagnationledthelumpsum,totackletough.Tofurtherincreasetheproductionsafetyindexassessment,strictlyimplementthesafetyproductionoftheonevotevetoandtherewardsystem,strengthenthesafetyince

43、ntiveandrestraintmechanism.(six)theimplementationoftheworkforceisnotstrong.Thedocuments,meeting,longworkarrangement,checkandsupervisetheimplementationofsmall,poorimplementationofthesystem,theworkisnoteffective.Someleadingcadressenseofpurpose,consciousnessofthemassesisnotstrong,therulingForthepeople,

44、theinterestsofthemassesnomatterconceptunderstandingisnotinplace.Thespecificworktreatswiththedeployment,afewleadingcadrescomplainthatworkistoocomplicated,toomuchresponsibility,thepressureistoolarge,toomuchemphasisonthedifficultyofthework,suchasundergroundminestoavoidthedisasterofsixsystemsconstructio

45、nandconstructionofmechanicalventilationtofiletheform,forwardingarrangementswork,noin-depthminingenterprisestopromotethespecificwork,theincreaseinthenumberoffiles,buttheeffectisnotgood,notaccordingtotheactualsituationofnoncoalminesinthecounty,toengageinacrosstheboard,andthequality值得注意的是,格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)的結(jié)論只

46、是統(tǒng)計(jì)意義上的因果性,而不一定是真正的因果關(guān)系。雖然可以作為真正的因果關(guān)系的一種支持,但不能作為肯定或否定因果關(guān)系的最終根據(jù)。當(dāng)然,即使格蘭杰因果關(guān)系不等于實(shí)際因果關(guān)系,也并不妨礙其參考價(jià)值。因?yàn)榻y(tǒng)計(jì)意義上的因果關(guān)系也是有意義的,對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)等仍然能起很大的作用。由于假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)的零假設(shè)是不存在因果關(guān)系,在該假設(shè)下 F 統(tǒng)計(jì)量服從 F 分布,因此嚴(yán)格地說,該檢驗(yàn)應(yīng)該稱為格蘭杰非因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)。strengthenthesenseofresponsibility,worktosolvethelackofdecentoccupationexplainaway,conductproblems.Toesta

47、blishtheoverallconcept,eliminatedepartmentalism.Strictassessmentandaccountability,tosolvethespiritualslack,nianqingpazhong,statusquo,andotherissues.ToestablishandperfectthemuddlealongBureaustaffconductworkregulations,standardizethebehaviorofpersonnel.2.Tostrengthentheresponsibilitysystem.Oneisthein-

48、depthstudyandimplementtheHunanprovincialPartyandgovernmentleadingcadresInterimProvisionsontheworksafetyofapairof(HunanOfficeissued2013No.5),Hunanprovincesafetysupervisionandmanagementresponsibilitiesoftheprovisionsontheproduction(HunanZhengbanmade2013No.4)Andresolutelyimplementthesafetyproductionoft

49、hepartywithresponsibility,apairofresponsibility.Twoisissuedsafetyproductionadministrationandinspectiontopromotetheresponsibilitiesbearsafetyproductionsupervisiondepartmentsstrictlyandeffectivelyassumedresponsibility.Thethreeistoestablishriskselfcorrectionselfreportingsystemforsafetyinproductionenterprises,promotetheenterprisestoimplementthemainresp

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