宏觀經(jīng)濟理論和政策課件

1、宏觀經(jīng)濟理論和政策：L5開放經(jīng)濟國際商品和資本流動名義匯率真實匯率蒙代爾弗萊明模型：固定匯率與資本完全流動資本完全流動與可變匯率開放經(jīng)濟貿易聯(lián)系資本聯(lián)系為什么有國際貿易？誰受益？國際商品流動貿易貿易盈余NX0貿易赤字NXC+I+GSI外國資產(chǎn)？收入小于支出呢1980年以前，比較平衡1980年代主要因為儲蓄減少，主要是政府赤字增加1990年代，高科技投資帶動的投資增加2000年以后，小布什的赤字又增加了中國的資本流出圖2：中國國際收支年度順差（2001 2007），單位：億美元數(shù)據(jù)來源：國家外匯管理局網(wǎng)頁 其中，2007年數(shù)據(jù)為估算，根據(jù)國家統(tǒng)計局公布的2007年上半年的相應數(shù)值乘以2而得。01

2、000200030004000500060002001年2002年2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年國際收支總順差經(jīng)常項目順差資本與金融項目順差報表項目 Items2007.08 2007.09 2007.10 2007.11 2007.12 國外資產(chǎn) Foreign Assets111215.90 115860.33 117752.33 122170.97 124825.18 外匯 Foreign Exchange108793.39 111776.31 111841.27 115031.21 115168.71 貨幣黃金 Monetary Gold337.24 337.24

3、337.24 337.24 337.24 其他國外資產(chǎn) Other Foreign Assets2085.27 3746.78 5573.82 6802.52 9319.23 對政府債權 Claims on Government8819.66 8825.32 8825.32 8825.32 16317.71 其中：中央政府 Of which: Central Government8819.66 8825.32 8825.32 8825.32 16317.71 對其他存款性公司債權 Claims on Other Depository Corporations 6611.83 6612.39 6

4、581.30 6310.42 7862.80 對其他金融性公司債權 Claims on Other Financial Corporations16056.81 16023.29 16005.70 15950.40 12972.34 對非金融性公司債權 Claims on Non-financial Corporations63.68 63.68 63.68 63.68 63.59 其他資產(chǎn) Other Assets11841.11 11975.88 11974.05 11979.20 7098.18 總資產(chǎn) Total Assets154608.99 159360.89 161202.38

5、165299.99 169139.80 儲備貨幣 Reserve Money83639.33 88212.33 88615.90 92433.16 # 貨幣發(fā)行 Currency Issue30153.82 31804.81 30692.10 31389.64 32971.58 金融性公司存款 Deposits of Financial Corporations53215.72 56133.42 57661.01 60775.81 68415.86 其他存款性公司 Other Depository Corporations53045.25 55979.20 57477.91 60569.24

6、68094.84 其他金融性公司 Other Financial Corporations170.47 154.22 183.10 206.57 321.02 非金融性公司存款 Deposits of Non-financial Corporations269.79 274.10 262.79 267.71 157.96 活期存款 Demand Deposits269.79 274.10 262.79 267.71 157.96 發(fā)行債券 Bond Issue40675.39 38945.73 37109.51 35667.62 34469.13 國外負債 Foreign Liabilitie

7、s927.51 931.68 931.55 933.08 947.28 政府存款 Deposits of Government 20392.34 20496.85 22727.45 23159.58 17121.10 自有資金 Own Capital219.75 219.75 219.75 219.75 219.75 其他負債 Other Liabilities 8754.67 10554.55 11598.22 12886.80 14837.14 總負債 Total Liabilities#項 目行次差額貸 方借 方一.經(jīng)常項目1249,865,9951,144,498,935894,632

8、,940 A.貨物和服務2208,912,1471,061,681,544852,769,397 a.貨物3217,746,060969,682,307751,936,247 b.服務4-8,833,91391,999,237100,833,150 1.運輸5-13,353,74121,015,28534,369,026 2.旅游69,627,29633,949,00024,321,704 3.通訊服務7-26,202737,871764,073 4.建筑服務8702,9182,752,6392,049,721 5.保險服務9-8,282,919548,1768,831,094 6.金融服務1

9、0-746,042145,425891,467 7.計算機和信息服務111,218,8602,957,7111,738,851 8.專有權利使用費和特許費12-6,429,577204,5046,634,081 9.咨詢13-555,0667,834,1428,389,208 10.廣告、宣傳14490,0731,445,032954,960 11.電影、音像1515,954137,433121,480 12.其它商業(yè)服務168,432,22719,693,33411,261,106 13. 別處未提及的政府服務1772,306578,685506,379千美元 B.收益1811,754,60

10、751,239,76139,485,153 1.職工報酬191,989,5004,319,4932,329,993 2.投資收益209,765,10846,920,26837,155,160 C.經(jīng)常轉移2129,199,24131,577,6302,378,390 1.各級政府22-146,54164,714211,255 2.其它部門2329,345,78231,512,9162,167,135二.資本和金融項目2410,036,765653,276,252643,239,487 A.資本項目254,020,1154,102,47782,362 B. 金融項目266,016,650649,

11、173,775643,157,125 1. 直接投資2760,265,01187,285,17927,020,168 1.1 我國在外直接投資28-17,829,655717,77118,547,426 1.2 外國在華直接投資2978,094,66686,567,4088,472,742 2. 證券投資30-67,557,57145,601,579113,159,150 2.1 資產(chǎn)31-110,418,7712,740,379113,159,150 2.1.1 股本證券32-1,454,000224,0001,678,000 2.1.2 債務證券33-108,964,7712,516,37

12、9111,481,150 2.1.2.1 (中)長期債券34-106,736,7712,516,379109,253,150 2.1.2.2 貨幣市場工具35-2,228,00002,228,000 2.2 負債3642,861,20042,861,2000 2.2.1 股本證券3742,861,20042,861,2000 2.2.2 債務證券38000 2.2.2.1 (中)長期債券39000 2.2.2.2 貨幣市場工具40000三. 儲備資產(chǎn)52-247,025,415446,585247,472,000 3.1 貨幣黃金53000 3.2 特別提款權54135,744135,7440

13、 3.3 在基金組織的儲備頭寸55310,841310,8410 3.4 外匯56-247,472,0000247,472,000 3.5 其它債權57000四.凈 誤 差 與 遺 漏58-12,877,344012,877,344名義匯率名義匯率 1美元=7RMB貶值升值法定貶值法定升值真實匯率例子中國漢堡10RMB美國漢堡2$美國的漢堡價格用rmb表示2$7RMB/$=14RMB14RMB/10RMB=1.4什么意思？美國的價格額是中國的1.4倍真實匯率=名義匯率外國價格本國價格真實匯率=名義匯率外國價格本國價格購買力平價一價定律一個相同的商品必須賣相同的價格剛才的例子里，你可以做什么來牟

14、利？真實匯率=1=EP*P1P*1美元在美國的購買力EP1美元可以兌換成E元RMB，E元RMB的購買力等于E/P這二者應該相等，為什么？貨幣，價格，和匯率：德國超級通脹期間 10,000,000,0001,000,000,000,000,000100,0001.00001.00000000011921192219231924Exchange rateMoney supplyPrice level1925指數(shù)(Jan. 1921 5 100)圖3：中國外匯儲備（2004.12007.9），單位：億美元數(shù)據(jù)來源：國家外匯管理局網(wǎng)頁關于匯率的短期理論可貸資金市場均衡數(shù)量均衡利率可貸資金供給，來自國內

15、儲蓄可貸資金需求，用于國內投資和凈出口外匯市場真實匯率用于兌換美元的人民幣數(shù)量人民幣需求，用于凈出口人民幣供給，來自資本凈流出美國作為債務帝國2004年5000億美元美國增長很快4%你怎么看美國的前途？資本外逃短短10年前，資本外逃是中國關注的問題?，F(xiàn)在沒人關心了資本會逃離美國嗎？匯率制度定義：以一種通貨表示的另外一種通貨的價格表示方法：7.3RMB/$固定匯率中央銀行的干預浮動匯率清潔浮動與骯臟浮動1995年，一個愚蠢的眾議員說，要讓美國歷史上第一次拖欠債務。后果是美國政府債券利率上升了0.1個百分點，匯率下降。美國還敢試嗎？KRUGMAN說，外國信任美國，是基于美國的領袖不會干蠢事。如果美

16、國不負責任的財政赤字持續(xù)的話，投資者最終會得出結論，美國中最要變成第三世界國家，并開始像那些國家一樣威脅投資者。這對美國的經(jīng)濟后果并不妙。圖4：人民幣對美元月度匯率（2005.12007.12）數(shù)據(jù)來源：國家外匯管理局網(wǎng)頁商品貿易與貿易均衡本國居民的支出=A=C+I+G對國內商品的支出=A+NX=C+I+G+NX=A+NX回憶A=A(Y,i)凈出口NX=X(Yf,R)-Q(Y,R)=NX(Y,Yf,R)邊際進口傾向IS曲線：Y=A(Y,i)+NX(Y,Yf,R)例子，美國收入降低國內支出增加對收入和凈出口的影響？國外收入增加對收入和凈出口的影響實際貶值呢？資本的流動性資本逐利我們先分析資本完全

17、流動的情況國際收支與資本流動BP=NX(Y,Yf,R)+CF(i-if)內部平衡與外部平衡蒙代爾弗萊明模型在固定匯率下，和資本完全流動，一國無法采取獨立的貨幣政策利率無法背離世界市場上通行的利率水平。實施獨立的貨幣政策會導致資本流動，并且需要干預，直至利率回到與世界市場的利率水平一致為止緊縮貨幣提高利率資本流入，國際收支盈余貨幣升值的壓力通過賣出本國貨幣，買進外幣來干預干預擴張了貨幣，降低了利率回到原先的利率和貨幣存量和國際收支水平固定匯率使得貨幣存量外生化資本的完全流動與可變匯率在完全可變匯率下，沒有干預意味著國際收支余額為0.任何經(jīng)常項目赤字，必須由私人資本流入來加以解決，經(jīng)常項目盈余由資

18、本流出來平衡。匯率的調整保證經(jīng)常項目與資本項目之和為0i=if貶值，IS曲線右移，？貨幣存量的調整非常有效貶值政策輸出失業(yè)競爭性貶值The Mundell-Fleming modelKey assumption: Small open economy with perfect capital mobility. r = r*Goods market equilibrium the IS* curve:where e = nominal exchange rate = foreign currency per unit domestic currencyThe IS* curve: Goods

19、market eqmThe IS* curve is drawn for a given value of r*. Intuition for the slope:Y eIS*The LM* curve: Money market eqmThe LM* curveis drawn for a given value of r*.is vertical because:given r*, there is only one value of Y that equates money demand with supply, regardless of e. Y eLM*Equilibrium in

20、 the Mundell-Fleming modelY eLM*IS*equilibriumexchangerateequilibriumlevel ofincomeFloating & fixed exchange ratesIn a system of floating exchange rates, e is allowed to fluctuate in response to changing economic conditions.In contrast, under fixed exchange rates, the central bank trades domestic fo

21、r foreign currency at a predetermined price.Next, policy analysis first, in a floating exchange rate systemthen, in a fixed exchange rate systemFiscal policy under floating exchange ratesY eY1 e1 e2 At any given value of e, a fiscal expansion increases Y, shifting IS* to the right. Results: e 0, Y =

22、 0Lessons about fiscal policyIn a small open economy with perfect capital mobility, fiscal policy cannot affect real GDP. “Crowding out”closed economy: Fiscal policy crowds out investment by causing the interest rate to rise. small open economy: Fiscal policy crowds out net exports by causing the ex

23、change rate to appreciate. Monetary policy under floating exchange ratesY ee1 Y1 Y2 e2 An increase in M shifts LM* right because Y must rise to restore eqm in the money market.Results: e 0Lessons about monetary policyMonetary policy affects output by affecting the components of aggregate demand: clo

24、sed economy: M r I Ysmall open economy: M e NX YExpansionary mon. policy does not raise world agg. demand, it merely shifts demand from foreign to domestic products. So, the increases in domestic income and employment are at the expense of losses abroad. Trade policy under floating exchange ratesY e

25、e1 Y1 e2 At any given value of e, a tariff or quota reduces imports, increases NX, and shifts IS* to the right. Results: e 0, Y = 0Lessons about trade policyImport restrictions cannot reduce a trade deficit. Even though NX is unchanged, there is less trade:the trade restriction reduces imports. the

26、exchange rate appreciation reduces exports.Less trade means fewer “gains from trade.”Lessons about trade policy, cont.Import restrictions on specific products save jobs in the domestic industries that produce those products, but destroy jobs in export-producing sectors. Hence, import restrictions fa

27、il to increase total employment. Also, import restrictions create “sectoral shifts,” which cause frictional unemployment. Fixed exchange ratesUnder fixed exchange rates, the central bank stands ready to buy or sell the domestic currency for foreign currency at a predetermined rate. In the Mundell-Fl

28、eming model, the central bank shifts the LM* curve as required to keep e at its preannounced rate. This system fixes the nominal exchange rate. In the long run, when prices are flexible, the real exchange rate can move even if the nominal rate is fixed.Fiscal policy under fixed exchange ratesY eY1 e

29、1 Under floating rates, a fiscal expansion would raise e. Results: e = 0, Y 0Y2 To keep e from rising, the central bank must sell domestic currency, which increases M and shifts LM* right. Under floating rates, fiscal policy is ineffective at changing output.Under fixed rates,fiscal policy is very e

30、ffective at changing output. Monetary policy under fixed exchange ratesAn increase in M would shift LM* right and reduce e. Y eY1 e1 To prevent the fall in e, the central bank must buy domestic currency, which reduces M and shifts LM* back left. Results: e = 0, Y = 0Under floating rates, monetary po

31、licy is very effective at changing output.Under fixed rates,monetary policy cannot be used to affect output. Trade policy under fixed exchange ratesY eY1 e1 A restriction on imports puts upward pressure on e. Results: e = 0, Y 0Y2 To keep e from rising, the central bank must sell domestic currency,

32、which increases M and shifts LM* right. Under floating rates, import restrictions do not affect Y or NX. Under fixed rates,import restrictions increase Y and NX. But, these gains come at the expense of other countries: the policy merely shifts demand from foreign to domestic goods.Summary of policy

33、effects in the Mundell-Fleming modeltype of exchange rate regime:floatingfixedimpact on:PolicyYeNXYeNXfiscal expansion000mon. expansion000import restriction000Interest-rate differentialsTwo reasons why r may differ from r*country risk: The risk that the countrys borrowers will default on their loan

34、repayments because of political or economic turmoil. Lenders require a higher interest rate to compensate them for this risk. expected exchange rate changes: If a countrys exchange rate is expected to fall, then its borrowers must pay a higher interest rate to compensate lenders for the expected cur

35、rency depreciation.Differentials in the M-F modelwhere (Greek letter “theta”) is a risk premium, assumed exogenous. Substitute the expression for r into the IS* and LM* equations:The effects of an increase in IS* shifts left, because r IY eY1 e1LM* shifts right, because r (M/P)d,so Y must rise to re

36、store money market eqm.Results: e 0e2Y2 The fall in e is intuitive: An increase in country risk or an expected depreciation makes holding the countrys currency less attractive. Note: an expected depreciation is a self-fulfilling prophecy. The increase in Y occurs because the boost in NX (from the de

37、preciation)is greater than the fall in I (from the rise in r ).The effects of an increase in Why income might not riseThe central bank may try to prevent the depreciation by reducing the money supply.The depreciation might boost the price of imports enough to increase the price level (which would re

38、duce the real money supply).Consumers might respond to the increased risk by holding more money.Each of the above would shift LM* leftward.CASE STUDY: The Mexican peso crisisCASE STUDY: The Mexican peso crisisThe Peso crisis didnt just hurt MexicoU.S. goods more expensive to MexicansU.S. firms lost

39、revenueHundreds of bankruptcies along U.S.-Mexican borderMexican assets worth less in dollarsReduced wealth of millions of U.S. citizensUnderstanding the crisisIn the early 1990s, Mexico was an attractive place for foreign investment. During 1994, political developments caused an increase in Mexicos

40、 risk premium ( ):peasant uprising in Chiapas assassination of leading presidential candidateAnother factor: The Federal Reserve raised U.S. interest rates several times during 1994 to prevent U.S. inflation. (r* 0) Understanding the crisisThese events put downward pressure on the peso. Mexicos cent

41、ral bank had repeatedly promised foreign investors that it would not allow the pesos value to fall,so it bought pesos and sold dollars to “prop up” the peso exchange rate. Doing this requires that Mexicos central bank have adequate reserves of dollars. Did it?Dollar reserves of Mexicos central bankD

42、ecember 1993 $28 billionAugust 17, 1994 $17 billionDecember 1, 1994 $ 9 billionDecember 15, 1994 $ 7 billionDuring 1994, Mexicos central bank hid the fact that its reserves were being depleted. the disaster Dec. 20: Mexico devalues the peso by 13%(fixes e at 25 cents instead of 29 cents)Investors ar

43、e SHOCKED! they had no idea Mexico was running out of reserves. , investors dump their Mexican assets and pull their capital out of Mexico. Dec. 22: central banks reserves nearly gone. It abandons the fixed rate and lets e float.In a week, e falls another 30%. The rescue package1995: U.S. & IMF set

44、up $50b line of credit to provide loan guarantees to Mexicos govt. This helped restore confidence in Mexico, reduced the risk premium. After a hard recession in 1995, Mexico began a strong recovery from the crisis. CASE STUDY:The Southeast Asian crisis 1997-98Problems in the banking system eroded in

45、ternational confidence in SE Asian economies.Risk premiums and interest rates rose.Stock prices fell as foreign investors sold assets and pulled their capital out. Falling stock prices reduced the value of collateral used for bank loans, increasing default rates, which exacerbated the crisis. Capita

46、l outflows depressed exchange rates. Data on the SE Asian crisisexchange rate % change from 7/97 to 1/98stock market % change from 7/97 to 1/98nominal GDP % change 1997-98Indonesia-59.4%-32.6%-16.2%Japan-12.0%-18.2%-4.3%Malaysia-36.4%-43.8%-6.8%Singapore-15.6%-36.0%-0.1%S. Korea-47.5%-21.9%-7.3%Taiw

47、an-14.6%-19.7%n.a.Thailand-48.3%-25.6%-1.2% U.S.n.a.2.7%2.3%Floating vs. fixed exchange ratesArgument for floating rates:allows monetary policy to be used to pursue other goals (stable growth, low inflation).Arguments for fixed rates:avoids uncertainty and volatility, making international transactio

48、ns easier.disciplines monetary policy to prevent excessive money growth & hyperinflation.The Impossible TrinityA nation cannot have free capital flows, independent monetary policy, and a fixed exchange rate simultaneously. A nation must choose one side of this triangle and give up the opposite corne

49、r. Free capital flowsIndependent monetary policyFixed exchange rateOption 1(U.S.)Option 3(China)Option 2(Hong Kong)CASE STUDY:The Chinese Currency Controversy1995-2005: China fixed its exchange rate at 8.28 yuan per dollar, and restricted capital flows. Many observers believed that the yuan was sign

50、ificantly undervalued, as China was accumulating large dollar reserves. U.S. producers complained that Chinas cheap yuan gave Chinese producers an unfair advantage.President Bush asked China to let its currency float; Others in the U.S. wanted tariffs on Chinese goods.CASE STUDY:The Chinese Currency

51、 ControversyIf China lets the yuan float, it may indeed appreciate. However, if China also allows greater capital mobility, then Chinese citizens may start moving their savings abroad. Such capital outflows could cause the yuan to depreciate rather than appreciate. Mundell-Fleming and the AD curve So far in M-F model, P has been fixed. Next: to derive the AD curve, consider the impact of a change in P in the M-F model.We now write the M-F equations as: