畜禽成活率的準(zhǔn)確計(jì)算

1、畜禽成活率的準(zhǔn)確計(jì)算本文作者及算法提出：北京博亞苑科技開發(fā)有限責(zé)任公司王希斌筆者通過實(shí)例比較提出使用累計(jì)加權(quán)平均法計(jì)算相對(duì)準(zhǔn)確的成活率、死亡率的算法公式, 及在軟件設(shè)計(jì)中實(shí)現(xiàn)的算法。一、幾種成活率計(jì)算公式死亡數(shù)H成活率二1 -日初存欄+轉(zhuǎn)入和購(gòu)入數(shù)成活率1（期初轉(zhuǎn)入法）二1-.成活率2（常規(guī)法1）二*欄期注：僅適用于：期末存欄-期初存欄+轉(zhuǎn)出上市0時(shí)。成活率3 （常規(guī)法2） = .普轉(zhuǎn)出上市+死亡注：用于成活率2 （常規(guī)法1）中，期末存欄-期初存欄+轉(zhuǎn)出上市SO時(shí)。成活率4（累積日成活率法）=n?=i勤注：xi為第i夭的日成活率 成活率5 （平均日成活率法）=/注：X為平均Fi成活率（算末平均

2、法），n為統(tǒng)計(jì)期間天數(shù)。 成活率6 （加權(quán)平均法）注：x為平均Fi成活率（加權(quán)平均法），n為統(tǒng)計(jì)期間天數(shù)。平均日成活率（加權(quán)平均法）二尊竺舟琨：1（屯+由）注：格為第，天的日成活率，為第，天的日初存欄, bj為第1天的轉(zhuǎn)入和購(gòu)入數(shù)。這里“日成活率”公式是無爭(zhēng)議的公式；平均日成活率的計(jì)算僅僅是為計(jì)算期間成活率用的中間結(jié)果；成活率1-3為各公司常用計(jì)算成活率的公式，但均有一定的缺陷；成活率4為企業(yè)認(rèn)為可以用日成活率積乘代表準(zhǔn)確期間成活率；成活率5為企業(yè)認(rèn)為可以用平均日成活率的積乘代表準(zhǔn)確期間成活率;成活率6為本文作者提供的準(zhǔn)確期間成活率計(jì)算公式。二、幾種飼養(yǎng)數(shù)據(jù)的比較1、正常生產(chǎn)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)全進(jìn)全出飼養(yǎng)

3、樣例正常生產(chǎn)時(shí)的“全進(jìn)全出”畜禽群體，僅有建群轉(zhuǎn)入、末口銷傳和死亡數(shù)據(jù)，樣例如下:期初存欄轉(zhuǎn)入/購(gòu)入銷侈/淘汰/轉(zhuǎn)出死亡期末存欄日成活率12000119990. 99950000021999219970.9989995003199719971.0000000004199719971.00000000051997219950.9989984986199519951.000000000199519951.0000000008199519951.00000000091995619890.99699248110198919891.00000000011198919891.000000000121989

4、19891.00000000013198919891.000000000141989219870.99899147015198719871.00000000016198719871.00000000017198719871.00000000018198719871.00000000019198719871.00000000020198719871.00000000021198719871.00000000022198719871.000000000231987219850.99899345724198519851.00000000025198519851.0000000002619851985

5、1.000000000271985219830.99899244328198319831.00000000029198319831.00000000030198319831.000000000311983219810.99899142732198119811.00000000033198119811.00000000034198119811.000000000期初存欄轉(zhuǎn)入/購(gòu)入銷傳/淘汰/轉(zhuǎn)出死亡期末存欄口成活率35198119811. 00000000036198119811. 00000000037198119811. 000000000381981219790.9989904093919

6、7919791.000000000401979619730.99696816641197319731.000000000421973219710.99898631543197119711.000000000441971319680.998477930451968196801.000000000合計(jì)873512000196832873510.999641891本例當(dāng)然是“成活率1”最為準(zhǔn)確反映群體的成活率情況。各個(gè)期間成活率算法比較表被比較對(duì)象(a)比較的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)(b)差異 ab差異(%)(a-b) /b *100%名稱值成活率1成活率2不適用0. 984000000不適用不適用成活率30.9840

7、000000.9840000000. 0000000000. 000000000成活率40.9840000000.9840000000.0000000000.000000000成活率50.9840114060.9840000000.0000114060.001159194成活率60. 9840101150. 9840000000. 0000101150. 001027955結(jié)論：這里可直接由“成活率1”簡(jiǎn)單、準(zhǔn)確計(jì)算出期間成活率；“成活率3”、“成活率4”也可準(zhǔn)確反映期間成活率；“成活率5”、“成活率6”也可較準(zhǔn)確反映期間成活率，相對(duì)偏差在5%之內(nèi),“成活率6”相對(duì)更準(zhǔn)確；成活率2不適用這種情

8、況。這是個(gè)發(fā)生疫情，存在大量死亡情況的“全進(jìn)全出”畜禽群體，僅有建群轉(zhuǎn)入、末口銷 傳和死亡數(shù)據(jù)，樣例如下：日期初存欄轉(zhuǎn)入/購(gòu)入銷售/淘汰/轉(zhuǎn)出死亡期末存欄日成活率12000119990. 99950000021999219970.9989995003199719971. 0000000004199719971. 00000000051997219950. 9989984986199519951. 000000000r i199519951. 0000000008199519951. 00000000091995619890. 99699248110198919891. 000000000111

9、98919891. 00000000012198919891. 00000000013198919891. 0000000001419892019690. 9899446961519694019290.9796851191619299518340.95075168517183432015140.82551799318151413013840.9141347421913849012940.93497109820129412941. 0000000002112946012340. 95363214822123412341. 000000000231234212320. 99837925424123

10、212321. 00000000025123212321. 00000000026123212321. 0000000002712323012020. 97564935128120212021. 00000000029120212021. 00000000030120212021. 000000000311202212000. 99833610632120012001. 00000000033120012001. 00000000034120012001. 00000000035120012001. 000000000II期初存欄轉(zhuǎn)入/購(gòu)入銷售/淘汰/轉(zhuǎn)出死亡期末存欄日成活率361200120

11、01. 00000000037120012001. 000000000381200211980. 99833333339119811981. 000000000401198611920. 99499165341119211921. 000000000421192211900. 99832214843119011901. 000000000441190311870. 997478992451187118701. 000000000合計(jì)6808420001187813660840. 988991529本例當(dāng)然是“成活率1”最為準(zhǔn)確反映群體的成活率情況。各個(gè)期間成活率算法比較表二被比較對(duì)象(a)比較

12、的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)(b)差異ab差異的(ab) /b *100%名稱值成活率1成活率2不適用0. 593500000不適用不適用成活率30.5935000000. 5935000000. 0000000000. 000000000成活率40.5935000000. 5935000000.0000000000.000000000成活率50.6076671030. 5935000000.0141671032. 387043508成活率60. 5824074560. 5935000000.0110925441. 869004869結(jié)論：這里可直接由“成活率1”簡(jiǎn)單、準(zhǔn)確計(jì)算出期間成活率；“成活率3”、“成活率4

13、”也可準(zhǔn)確反映期間成活率；“成活率5”、“成活率6”也可較準(zhǔn)確反映期間成活率，相對(duì)偏差在5%之內(nèi),“成活率6”相對(duì)更準(zhǔn)確；成活率2不適用這種情況。正常生產(chǎn)時(shí)的“全進(jìn)全出”畜禽群體，僅有建群轉(zhuǎn)入、期間有銷售和死亡數(shù)據(jù)，樣例如H期初存欄轉(zhuǎn)入/購(gòu)入銷售/淘汰/轉(zhuǎn)出死亡期末存欄日成活率102000119990. 99950000021999219970. 99899950031997019971. 0000000004199719971. 00000000051997219950. 9989984986199519951. 000000000*7 1199519951. 000000000819951

14、9951. 00000000091995619890. 99699248110198919891. 00000000011198919891. 00000000012198919891. 00000000013198919891. 000000000111989219870. 99899447015198719871. 00000000016198719871. 00000000017198719871. 00000000018198719871. 00000000019198719871. 00000000020198719871. 00000000021198719871. 0000000

15、0022198719871. 000000000231987219850. 99899345724198519851. 00000000025198519851. 00000000026198519851. 000000000271985400215830. 99899244328158315831. 00000000029158315831. 00000000030158315831. 000000000311583215810. 99873657632158115811. 00000000033158115811. 00000000031158115811. 000000000351581

16、15811. 000000000II期初存欄轉(zhuǎn)入/購(gòu)入銷售/淘汰/轉(zhuǎn)出死亡期末存欄日成活率36158115811. 00000000037158115811. 000000000381581215790. 99873497839157915791. 000000000401579615730. 99620012741157315731. 000000000421573215710. 998728544431571015711. 000000000441571315680. 9980903884515681568001. 000000000合計(jì)801512000196832801510. 999

17、599144本例也以“成活率1”為對(duì)比標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。各個(gè)期間成活率算法比較表三被比較對(duì)象(a)比較的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)(b)差異ab差異(%)(ab) /b *100%名稱值成活率1成活率20.9259259260. 9840000000. 0580740745. 901836796成活率30.9840000000. 9840000000.0000000000. 000000000成活率40.9821048640. 9840000000.0018951360.192595103成活率50.9821196310. 9840000000.0018803690.191094409成活率60.9826206810. 984

18、0000000. 0013793190. 140174669結(jié)論：“成活率1”計(jì)算結(jié)果會(huì)偏高，原因是早期的售出會(huì)大大提高成活率“成活率2”、“成活率3”、“成活率4”、“成活率5”、“成活率6”也 可反映期間成活率。有疫情時(shí)的“全進(jìn)全出”畜禽群體，僅有建群轉(zhuǎn)入、期間有銷傳和死亡數(shù)據(jù)，樣例如下:H期初存欄轉(zhuǎn)入/購(gòu)入銷售/淘汰/轉(zhuǎn)出死亡期末存欄日成活率102000119990. 99950000021999219970. 9989995003199719971. 0000000004199719971. 00000000051997219950. 9989984986199519951. 0000

19、00000r i199519951. 0000000008199519951. 00000000091995619890. 99699248110198919891. 00000000011198919891. 00000000012198919891. 00000000013198919891. 0000000001119892019690. 9899446961519694019290. 9796851191619299518340. 95075168517183432015140. 82551799318151413013840. 9141347421913849012940. 9349

20、7109820129412941. 0000000002112946012340. 95363214822123412341. 000000000231234212320. 99837925424123212321. 00000000025123212321. 00000000026123212321. 000000000271232400308020. 975649351288028021. 000000000298028021. 000000000308028021. 0000000003180228000. 997506234328008001. 000000000338008001.

21、000000000318008001. 000000000358008001. 000000000II期初存欄轉(zhuǎn)入/購(gòu)入銷售/淘汰/轉(zhuǎn)出死亡期末存欄日成活率368008001. 000000000378008001. 0000000003880027980. 99750000039798780181. 00000000040186120. 6666666674112121. 00000000042122100. 8333333334310101. 000000000441030. 700000000457701. 000000000合計(jì)542042000118813542040. 971381

22、396本例以“成活率1”為對(duì)比標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。各個(gè)期間成活率算法比較表三被比較對(duì)象(a)比較的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)(b)差異ab差異(%) (ab) /b *100%名稱值成活率1成活率20. 5920722530. 5935000000. 0014277470. 240563962成活率30.5935000000. 5935000000.0000000000. 000000000成活率40.2325565250. 5935000000. 36094347560. 816086714成活率50.2707323550. 5935000000. 32276764554.383764886成活率60. 5190857760.

23、 5935000000. 07441422412. 538201178結(jié)論：這里“成活率1”雖然作為比較的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，但中途的銷售使成活率被高估了；“成活率2”、“成活率3”與“成活率1”是一樣的，同樣可能高估成活率;“成活率4”、“成活率5”顯然是不正確的，過低的估算了成活率；“成活率6”雖然較“成活率1”有較大差異，但恰好糾正了 “成活率1”高估 成活率的缺點(diǎn)，也糾正了“成活率4”、“成活率5”過低估計(jì)的錯(cuò)誤，即，“成 活率6”更能反映此時(shí)的群體。5、混群飼養(yǎng)，期間有銷售、轉(zhuǎn)出、死亡、轉(zhuǎn)入和購(gòu)入這是個(gè)正常生產(chǎn)時(shí)的“混群飼養(yǎng)”畜禽群體，樣例數(shù)據(jù)如下:H期初存欄轉(zhuǎn)入/購(gòu)入銷售/淘汰/轉(zhuǎn)出死亡期末存欄

24、日成活率12000119990. 99950000021999219970.9989995003199740015971. 0000000004159715971. 00000000051597215950. 9987476526159540019951. 0000000007199519951. 0000000008199519951. 00000000091995619890. 99699248110198919891. 00000000011198919891. 00000000012198919891. 00000000013198940015891. 0000000001115892

25、15870. 99874134715158715871. 00000000016158715871. 00000000017158740019871. 00000000018198719871. 00000000019198719871. 00000000020198719871. 00000000021198719871. 00000000022198719871. 000000000231987400215850. 99899345724158515851. 00000000025158515851. 00000000026158515851. 000000000271585215830.

26、 99873817028158340019831. 00000000029198319831. 00000000030198319831. 000000000311983219810. 99899142732198119811. 00000000033198140015811. 00000000031158115811. 00000000035158115811. 00000000036158115811. 000000000II期初存欄轉(zhuǎn)入/購(gòu)入銷售/淘汰/轉(zhuǎn)出死亡期末存欄日成活率37158140019811. 000000000381981219790. 99899040939197919791. 000000000401979619730. 99696816641197319731. 000000000421973219710. 99898631543197140015711. 000000000441571315680. 99809038845156815681. 000000000合計(jì)821511600200032817190. 999616429本例也以“成活率1 (期初轉(zhuǎn)入法)”對(duì)比標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。各個(gè)期間成