中國多資產(chǎn)策略：歡迎來到豬年

1、MULTI-ASSETCHINAJanuary 2019 HYPERLINK / China multi-asset specialWelcome to the Year of the Piga as as Play Videos: HYPERLINK /R/20/dSMQFQR Part 1: Macro HYPERLINK /R/20/ggfxvz6 Part 2: EquitiesDisclaimer & Disclosures: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analystcertifications in

2、the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of itIntroductionAs we head into the Year of the Pig, we offer clients our multi- asset views on China by providing twosummaries of 35 different reports. They reflect the thoughts of our macro teams on the economy, FX, rates, credit,

3、 and ESG, and include thematic reports by equity strategists and analysts. We also highlight the growing body of work produced by our joint venture, HSBC Qianhai Securities.Dilip ShahaniHead of Global Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited HYPERLINK mailto:dilips

4、hahani.hk dilipshahani.hk+852 2822 4520William Bratton*Head of Equity Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited HYPERLINK mailto:william.bratton.hk william.bratton.hk+852 2822 1622Steven Sun*, CFA (S1700517110003)Head of Research, HSBCQianhai Securities LimitedHSBC

5、Qianhai Securities Limited HYPERLINK mailto:stevensun stevensun+86 755 8898 3158A very warm welcome to the Year of the PigLast year proved to be a challenging time for the Chinese economy. The escalation of the trade war with the US hurt sentiment and created uncertainty about the outlook for the bu

6、siness environment and the currency. Financial deleveraging has by and large continued despite marginal relaxation in regulations. As a result, broad credit growth has continued to ease, making life particularly difficult for the private sector, the heartbeat of the economy.Both the domestic and ext

7、ernal challenges are likely to persist in 2019. However, we believe more policies to support domestic demand, especially tax cuts, will be introduced in order to cushiontheimpactoneconomic growth.Wealsothink that,afterastrongyear,furthergainsin China bonds are likely in 2019 as Beijing continues to

8、provide policyaccommodation.We believe that, despite a difficult year, the outlook for A- and H-shares is bright given the right conditions our house view that US interest rates will peak in September 2019 is one of those conditions. Our equity analysts share their ideas on a wide range of sectors,

9、whileour strategists look at the markets, demographics, supply chains and SOEreform.* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBCSecurities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsCredit growth has continued to easeOur coverage of A-shares continues to expandMeanwhile, ou

10、r coverage of A-shares continues to expand as a result of our joint venture, HSBC Qianhai Securities, which was launched in December 2017. The initiative reflects the growing importance of Chinas domestic equity markets, which are already Asias largest in terms of market capitalisation and trading v

11、olumes, and are expected to see a significant increase in foreign participation now that MSCI has added more than 200 A-shares to its emerging market index.Our growing team of equity analysts at HSBC Qianhai Securities has produced a series of in- depth reports covering everything from baiju, beer,

12、fintech and cybersecurity, to healthcare, media, the Internet, semiconductors and smartphones. Our coverage will become even broader this year.A very happy Year of the Pig from all of us at HSBC Global Research and HSBC Qianhai Securities.Contents HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Introduction1 HYPERLINK l _bo

13、okmark1 HSBC Global Research and HSBC HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Qianhai Securities: Major China HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 reports4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Economics: 2019 outlook five key HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 macrotrends8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Economics: The Greater Bay Area HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 many

14、cities,one goal10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 FX: OurRMBforecast12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 Rates: The bullruncontinues14 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Credit: Local government HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 ESG: What MSCI A-share inclusion HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 meansfor ESG18 HYPERLINK l _book

15、mark8 Equity Strategy: 2019 H-shareoutlook HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 why weremain believers20 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Equity Strategy: SOE reform when HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Karl Marx meets AdamSmithIII22 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 Equity Strategy: The rise of Chinas HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 emptynesters24

16、HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Equity Strategy: Retooling Asias HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 supplychains26 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 Auto components: Going global the HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 keyto success28 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 Autos: Our2019dashcam30 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 Brokers: Stock-pledged lending a H

17、YPERLINK l _bookmark14 longoverhang HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 Financials survey: Anatomy of a HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 consumer HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 Infrastructure: On themoveagain36 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 Internet advertising: Slower growth, HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 newplayers HYPERLINK l _bookmark

18、18 Real Estate: A city-by-city debt health HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 check HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 Telecoms: 5Ginfocus42 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 Utilities: The Belt and Road how to HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 plug thepowergap HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 HSBC Qianhai Securities HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 Equity S

19、trategy: Our 2019 outlook for HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 A-shares HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 Beer: Cheers heres to better profits HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 forbrewers HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 Custom furniture: Newfloorplans50 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 E&C: Building up to a sector re-rating HYPERLINK l _bookmar

20、k25 52 HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 Good spirits: A toast to baijiu HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 Healthcare: Our prognosis for the HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 54 HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 sector to 2030 HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 56 HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 Healthcare: The benefits of quicker HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 dr

21、ugapprovals HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 IT Software: The rise of Chinas HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 digitaldoctors HYPERLINK l _bookmark30 Machinery: Plenty tobuildon62 HYPERLINK l _bookmark31 Media: A Hollywood moment for HYPERLINK l _bookmark31 Chinasfilm-makers64 HYPERLINK l _bookmark32 Media & Internet:

22、 Big data, new HYPERLINK l _bookmark32 values,futuretrends HYPERLINK l _bookmark33 Media & Internet: The keys to Chinas HYPERLINK l _bookmark33 digitalkingdom HYPERLINK l _bookmark34 Semiconductors: Chinas great chip HYPERLINK l _bookmark34 challenge HYPERLINK l _bookmark35 Smartphones: How the supp

23、ly chain HYPERLINK l _bookmark35 can beat thesalesslowdown HYPERLINK l _bookmark36 Software: A cybersecurity revolution HYPERLINK l _bookmark36 in thecloudera HYPERLINK l _bookmark37 Software: Fintech investment to HYPERLINK l _bookmark37 surge in a newpolicyera HYPERLINK l _bookmark38 Disclosureapp

24、endix78 HYPERLINK l _bookmark39 Disclaimer82HSBC Global Research and HSBC Qianhai Securities: Major China reportsEconomics HYPERLINK /R/10/hsbbwZc Where is the “credit gap”? Chinas debt ratio stabilizing, 25 April 2018 HYPERLINK /R/10/CxJMmhG Trade wars Round two: China, retaliation and the auto thr

25、eat, 21 June 2018 HYPERLINK /R/10/cw9L6PG US-China tariffs Businesses to feel the impact more than consumers, 21 June 2018 HYPERLINK /R/10/SD7NgMS China Inside Out Its all about domestic demand, 29 June 2018 HYPERLINK /R/10/jzFBGJK China Inside Out China easing: Tax cuts hold the key, 25 July 2018 H

26、YPERLINK /R/10/ZXzpQlG Chinas Greater Bay Area Many cities, one goal, 1 August 2018 HYPERLINK /R/10/wkfGJSf A blessing in disguise Why a trade war will strengthen China-EM links, 31 August 2018 HYPERLINK /R/10/66GJxKN China in 2019 Five key macro themes, 22 November 2018 HYPERLINK /R/10/jjmrFcd US-C

27、hina trade perspectives Countdown to Buenos Aires and beyond, 26 November 2018 HYPERLINK /R/10/MsPBZwX US-China trade truce Tariff increase suspended for 90 days, 2 December 2018 HYPERLINK /R/10/jgMndWJ Xi-Trump Meeting A window of opportunity, 2 December 2018 HYPERLINK /R/10/dGjCVRQ China PBoC cuts

28、 rates for private and SME loans, 20 December 2018 HYPERLINK ttps:/R/10/zPfljsL China Beijing pledges stronger reflation measures in 2019, 21 December 2018 HYPERLINK /R/10/2jXGgBq China PBoC cuts RRR by 100bps: Economics & FX Implications, 4 January 2019FX HYPERLINK /R/10/mlxQGrJ Asian FX Focus: RMB

29、 Go at your own pace, 12 October 2018 HYPERLINK /R/10/fJwmNl7 Emerging Markets FX Roadmap 2019 Outlook: From red to amber, 26 November 2018 HYPERLINK /R/10/2jXGgBq China PBoC cuts RRR by 100bps: Economics & FX Implications, 4 January 2019 HYPERLINK /R/10/rlBKttd Asia FX Focus 2009 outlook: No sweet

30、sixteen, 10 January 2019RatesEM Action Trade still on the tip of the tongue, 10 December 2018 China Rates 2019: The bull run continues, 7 January 2019EM Action EM central banks sighing with sense of Fed relief, 14 January 2019CreditChina Onshore Insights Local government debt: the knowns and unknown

31、s, 4 October 2018China Onshore Insights Flight to quality crimps the private sector, 14 December 2018China LGFVs The ones to watch in 2019: Tension remains, but contagion risks contained, 17 December 2018China Property HY 2019 Outlook: Climbing the wall of fear, 12 December 2018Greater China Technol

32、ogy No longer a defensive play, 17 December 2018Climate Change/Environment, Social, Governance (ESG) HYPERLINK /R/10/7LdxfbK A greener China Battles in the war on pollution, 11 April 2018 HYPERLINK /R/10/VVNPK6D ESG matters What MSCI A-share inclusion means for ESG, 31 May 2018Equity StrategyChina:

33、Looking at the bigger picture Global Equity Data Monitor, 15 April 2018Making money from Chinese demographics The rise of Chinas empty nesters, 10 May 2018Global Equity Strategy US-China tariffs: Assessing the corporate impact, 16 May 2018 of a 6 China tax reform What it means for different industry

34、 sectors, 8 September 2018China Investment Atlas (Issue 65) 4Q18: All eyes on 2019 earnings growth, 19 October 2018in a 22 November 2018China Investment Atlas (Issue 66) 2019 outlook: Why we remain believers, 3 December 2018EquitiesAsia Utilities Chinas Belt and Road Initiative: How to plug the powe

35、r gap, 27 February 2018China Deluxe Anatomy of the future luxury consumer, 7 March 2018China Cement Initiate coverage: Party still on re-rating to continue, 8 March 2018Global LNG - the glut abates, the crunch awaits, 27 March 20185G: Whats the use?, 29 March 2018HSBC 2018 China Conference The big p

36、icture, 11 May 2018China Real Estate Joining the dots: Finding the new property hot spots, 23 May 2018 China Truck Industry Initiate coverage: A new era of sustained growth, 25 May 2018 5G in Asia Generation gap, 30 May 2018Operation Unicorn China and Hong Kong move to attract new economy listings,

37、31 May 2018China Autos Whos afraid of the big bad WOFE?, 12 June 2018Global Energy and Industrials: IMO 2020: A long bill for clean air, 13 July 2018 China Financials Survey Anatomy of a financial consumer, 19 July 2018 China Telemedicine Pulsing with opportunity, 26 July 2018China Environmental Ini

38、tiate coverage: How to monetise Beautiful China, 8 August 2018China Banks Look up, higher NIMs about, 16 August 2018China Telcos Stay positive: 5G risk is overblown, 11 September 2018China Brokers Stock-pledged lending: A long overhang, 19 September 2018China Lodging Initiate coverage on Huazhu: Roo

39、m at the inn, 21 September 2018China Cement Stay positive and ride on the powerful policy tailwinds, 4 October 2018 China Real Estate 2019 Outlook: Sector looks cheap, but wait until 1Q19, 11 October 2018 China Infrastructure On the move again, 9 November 2018China Healthcare Value-shifting in healt

40、hcare, 15 November 2018China Healthcare Fast forward: the benefits of quicker drug approvals, 16 November 2018China Machinery Initiate coverage: Plenty to build on, 22 November 2018China Auto Components Going global: the overseas roadmap for Chinas parts suppliers,23 November 2018China Autos: Our 20

41、19 dashcam After going in reverse, growth set to shift into first gear,29 November 2018China Internet Advertising What slower growth and new players mean for the future of online advertising, 12 December 2018China Real Estate A city-by-city debt health check, 9 January 2019Oil in 2019: Range bound:

42、OPEC cut meets US shale glut, 13 January 2019HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesChina Smartphones How the supply chain can beat the sales slowdown, 9 May 2018China Media A Hollywood moment for Chinas film-makers, 18 May 2018China Custom Furniture Initiate coverage: New floor plans the rise of Chinas custom-made

43、 furniture industry, 31 May 2018China Healthcare In sickness and in healthour prognosis for the sector to 2030, 29 June 2018China Media & Internet Big data, new values, future trends, 19 July 2018China Semiconductors Narrowing the gap: Chinas great chip challenge, 6 September 2018 China Healthcare S

44、ervices A strong dose of the right private medicine, 2 October 2018 China Baijiu A toast to the national drink, 19 October 2018China Polyester Ironing out the wrinkles: the race to span the industrys whole value chain, 29 October 2018China Engineering & Construction Initiate coverage: Building up to

45、 a sector re-rating,9 November 2018China Software Cybersecurity revolution in the cloud era, 26 November 2018China Media & Internet If content is king, IP rights are the crown jewels, 30 November 2018 inaaEconomics: 2019 outlook five key macro trends Beijing is set to cut corporate taxes and selecti

46、vely ease credit for the private sector Infrastructure will likely rebound modestly, while the housing market continues to soften Concrete steps forward on SOE reform to ease trade tensions and accelerate opening upQu HongbinCo-head Asian Economics Research, Chief ChinaEconomist The Hongkong and Sha

47、nghai Banking Corporation Limited HYPERLINK mailto:hongbinqu.hk hongbinqu.hk+852 2822 2025Julia WangEconomist, Greater China The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited HYPERLINK mailto:juliarwang.hk juliarwang.hk+852 3604 3663Ma Xiaoping EconomistThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporat

48、ion Limited HYPERLINK mailto:xiaopingma xiaopingma+8610 5999 8232Jingyang Chen EconomistThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited HYPERLINK mailto:jingyang.chen.hk jingyang.chen.hk+852 2996 6558Aakanksha Bhat Economist, AsiaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited HYPERLINK

49、mailto:aakanksha.bhat.hk aakanksha.bhat.hk+852 2822 4297Madhurima Nag Associate BangaloreNew challenges, new solutions2018 turned out to be a challenging year for the Chinese economy. The escalation of the trade war hurt sentiment and brought much uncertainty for businesses. Financial deleveraging h

50、as by and large continued despite marginal relaxation in regulations. As a result, broad credit growth continued to ease to a record-low of 9.8% y-o-y in December 2018, down from an average of 14.4% in 2017.Both the domestic and external headwinds are likely to persist in 2019. Containing the overal

51、l macroeconomic impact while maintaining the economys structural adjustment to a more innovation-driven economy will be the biggest policy challenge.We look at five major themes for 2019: 1) Beijing shifting to tax cuts as a policy tool to cushion growth top of the list is a VAT cut for corporates;

52、2) more supportive credit policies for private- sector businesses to mitigate the negative spill-over effect of de-leveraging; 3) infrastructure investment rebounding modestly as funding and approval improves; 4) housing investment softening as demand eases, offsetting some of the incremental gain f

53、rom infrastructure investment rebound; and 5) SOE and industrial policy reforms accelerating along the lines of competitive neutrality.An emerging consensus for corporate tax cut to support growth. We estimate the upcoming VAT cut could amount to 0.9-1.6% of 2019e GDP (see HYPERLINK /R/10/kFMrLfb Ch

54、inas tax cut, 14 November 2018). Beijing has also pledged to reduce social security taxes. This tax relief should help lift profits and businesssentiment.Targeted credit easing for private sector businesses. To correct the over-tightening of credit conditions, we expect Beijing to work harder to sup

55、port businesses in the private sector. Policies such as targeted liquidity provision, credit risk mitigation, a soft target on loan quotas and regulatory incentives will likely intensify and put a floor under private-sector credit supply. Combined with the tax cut, this should reinforce the ongoing

56、recovery in private business investment.Infrastructure investment to rebound moderately. After a sharp fall in 2018, infrastructure investment will likely rebound modestly in 2019 as implementation speeds up. There is a long pipeline, ranging from railways and environmental protection to services su

57、ch as hospitals and tourisminfrastructure.Housing market to ease moderately. As the shanty town renovation project comes to a gradual end, housing sales in third- and fourth-tier cities should moderate in 2019. Investment growth will likely slow as land price inflation eases. We expect policies to f

58、avour stability and home purchase restrictions to be lifted in lower-tiercities.Competitive neutrality as the guiding principle of SOE and industrial policy reform. This is a double whammy related to speeding up reforms to level the playing field for private- sector and foreign companies on issues s

59、uch as subsidies and market access. This, in turn, should support growth and ease tradetensions.Deleveraging has tightenedcredit conditions foreveryoneBeijing is trying to selectively support private sector businesses50% 455080 SOE share of economy, %706050403020100200620082010201220142016UrbanIndus

60、trialExportsFixed employment productioninvestmentTSFgrowthOutstanding loan1981-19901991-20002001-20102011-20132014-NowSource:CEIC,HSBCSource: CEIC,HSBCThe fiscal impulse:moreexpansionaryInfrastructure investment hasstabilised0Fiscal Balance, RMBbnYoY%, 3mma0YoY %,3mma0Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug