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|19January2021Transportandlogisticsbarometer
Agenda
Highlights
Keyissuesfortheindustry
Passengertransport
Freighttransportandlogistics
Outlook
Appendix:M&Adealsinfigures,methodology,contacts
|19January2021Transportandlogisticsbarometer
Highlights
|19January2021Transportandlogisticsbarometer
Highlights
244
dealswereannouncedinthetransportandlogistics(T&L)industryin2020.M&Aactivityhasthuscaughtupsincetheweakfirsthalfoftheyear,andevensurpassedthelevelof2018.Totaldealvalue($84.3bn),though,hasdroppedby42%comparedtotheverystrongM&Ayearof2019.Despiteseriousimpactsofthepandemiconindividualsubsectors,dealactivityhasnotsignificantlyslumped.Overall,industrydynamicshavebeensurprisinglyrobustanddefiedtheseveredisruptionanduncertainty.
46%
ofalldealsinLogistics&Truckingrelatedtowarehousingoperationsandassets,includingtwocold-storagemegadealsintheUS.Retaillogistics,warehousingandparceldeliveryhavebeenthekeyareaofindustrydynamics.Courier,expressandparcel(CEP)servicesexperiencedarealboomduetoonlinetrade.
Vaccinedistribution
isthelitmustestforthe(pharmaandcoldchain)logisticsindustry.Withanestimated271millionvaccinedosestobedistributedmonthly,majorchallengesincludesecuringtransportandstoragecapacityandrefrigerationofthevaccines,continuoustraceability,protectionagainsttamperingandtheftand,finally,disposalofmedicalequipment.
H12020
1.0
ThepandemichasledtoanewlowinM&Avaluation,mainlydrivenbyastrongdeclineinpricesforpassenger-relatedtargets.Theoverallsalesmultiplefellto1.0,thelowestvaluesincethefinancialcrisis.
H22020
Passengertransport
continuestobethemost-affectedsectorduetotheCOVID-19containmentmeasures.Eveninour‘effectivevaccination’scenario,fullrecoveryisnotexpectedbefore2023/2024.Thenumberofdealsdroppedto67(from95in2019).Theaveragedealvalue,however,issignificantlyhigherthaninfreighttransport,indicatingthatevenlargepassengertransportcompaniessuchasairlinesarefacingfinancialconstraintsandneedfinancialaidfromgovernmentsorprivateinvestors.
H12021
2021
willbeanothertoughyearfortheT&Lindustry.Keychallengesforcompaniesincludestabilisingthebusiness,digitalisingcorelogisticsoperations,respondingsmartlytonewmobilityhabitsandsecuringthesupplyofvaccinesworldwide.Companiesneedtorepair,rethinkandreconfiguretheirorganisationsandbusinessmodels.
H22021
5.4%
istheprojectedincreaseofgrossvalueadded(GVA)intheEuropeanfreighttransportandlogisticsindustryin2021,accordingtoourscenarioanalysis(inscenario1,‘effectivevaccination’).Witha9.0%contractionin2020and4.0%growthin2022,thismayleadtofullrecoverytopre-crisislevelsbytheendof2022.Scenario2(‘ineffectivevaccination’)suggestsalowerrecoveryrateof3.9%in2021.
|19January2021Transportandlogisticsbarometer
Keyissuesfortheindustry
|19January2021Transportandlogisticsbarometer
ThetwosidesoftheT&Lindustry
TheCOVID-19pandemichasspreadrapidlyacrosstheglobe,creatinganunprecedentedsituationformorethanayear.Ithasnotonlyputmanylivesatrisk,buthasalsodisruptedtheglobaleconomyandhaschangedthewaypeopleworkandlive.Besidesahealthcrisis,COVID-19isaneconomiccrisisthatisaffectingboththedemandsideandthesupplyside,andmaydevelopintoafinancialcrisiswithcompaniesunabletorepaytheirdebts.Moreover,COVID-19hasseverelychallengedtheresilienceandabilityofcompaniestoensurebusinesscontinuity.
Thisglobalcrisisislikelytobeoneofthemostsevereeverrecorded,butitsimpactdiffersbyindustry.Therearesomethatappeartohaveonlybeenmarginallyaffectedorhaveevenprofitedfromthepandemic,suchasfood,healthcare,technologyandsoftware,ortelecommunications.However,mostotherindustrieshavesufferedsignificantslumps.Therefore,particularlyinEurope,governmentshavelaunchedshort-termfinancialsupportprogrammestolimittheeconomicdamageandstimulatedemandincertainsegments.
TheT&Lindustry–duetoitsnatureasadownstreamindustrydependentonotherindustries–mirrorsglobaleconomicactivity.However,two‘faces’canbeseen,asthedynamicsofthepandemichaveimpactedthesubsectorsofT&Ltovaryingdegrees.Freighttransportandlogisticshavebeencomparativelyrobustonaverage,yettherearemajordifferenceswithinitssubsectors.Passengertransport,incontrast,hassufferedhugedeclinesinallsubsectorsandispossiblyoneofthehardest-hitindustries.
Thisdichotomycan,insomecases,evenbeobservedwithinindividualdiversifiedlogisticscompanies,dependingonthedifferentsegmentstheyserve.Forcompaniesinthisposition,theopportunityhasarisentocushionlossesincurredinthepassengerbusinesswithrevenuesfromthefreightbusiness.
|19January2021Transportandlogisticsbarometer
Passengertransport
WiththepersistenceoftheCOVID-19pandemicandtheassociatednewlockdowns,travelrestrictionsandborderclosuresinsomecountries,thepassengertransportsectorisstillinsurvivalmode.Themeasurestakenledtoatotalcollapseindemandforpassengertransport,puttingmanycompaniesinthissectorunderoperationalpressureandinfinancialdistress.Alongsiderailandbuscompanies,airlines,airportsandtheentiretravelindustryhavebeenparticularlyaffected.Weexpecttoseeanongoing,structuralimpactduetochangedmobilityhabits.
Decliningnumbersofbusinessandleisuretravellersledtoverylowcapacityutilisationforrailandbuscompanies.Mostrailcompaniescontinuedtooperateasfaraspossibletomaintainmobility.AfterabriefincreaseindemandwiththetemporaryeasingofrestrictionsinQ3,passengernumbersfellagaintowardstheendoftheyearduetothesecondwaveofinfections,newrestrictionsandaccompanyingsafetyconcernsintheuseofpublictransport–particularlyinEurope.
Passengerairlineslargelysuspendedflightoperationsforseveralmonths.In2020,thenumberofflightsdroppedby58%to16.4million,andhencetoa1990slevel.1Thissituationledtomanyairlinesstrugglingtoavoidinsolvency,andforsome,governmentbailoutswereinevitable.
ThenumberofpassengersoncruiselinesstartedtodecreaseinMarch,leadingtodeparturesbeingsuspendedandanincreasednumberofanchoredcruiseshipsasthevirusspread,withdirecteffectsoncruiseterminalsaswell.
InEuropeandAsia,somecruiselinesreturnedtooperationwithreducedcapacityinQ3,butthenumbersofpassengersonboardhaveremainedlow.
Freighttransportandlogistics
Freighttransportandlogisticswasn’thitashardaspassengertransportandseemstoberecoveringfaster.Still,thepictureisrathermixed.Asanexample,automotivelogisticsservicescontractedsignificantlyupstreamanddownstream,includingsupplytoproductionplants,transhipmentterminals,anddistributionviaroadorrail.
Aircargovolumescollapsedduetolackofbellyfreightcapacity.Maritimeshippingwasimpactedbythecontractionofcargovolumesandiscurrentlyfacingcontainershortages.Incontrast,logisticsservicesforindustriessuchasfoodandhealthcarewereabletogrow,whileCEPcompaniesexperiencedanall-timehighfollowingrecordsalesinonlinetrade.
Afterborderclosuresandfactoryclosuresinsomemanufacturingindustriestemporarilydisruptedsupplychains,therecoveryofsomeeconomicindicatorsgivescauseforoptimism.
TheWTOGoodsTradeBarometerreleasedon
20November2020pointstoarecoveryoftradeinthethirdquarteroftheyear,drivenbyanincreaseinexportorders.Thebarometercurrentlystandsat100.7,muchhigherthanthe87.6recordedinMay.TheRWI/ISLContainerThrough-putIndex,whichrosetoanall-timehighof122.6inOctober,droppedslightlyinNovember.2ThroughputdecreasedinChineseportsinparticular.
ThetrucktollmileageindexforGermanyalsorecoveredtoitspre-COVIDlevel,andtheexpressandsmallparcelmarketisrecordingthehighestgrowthrategloballysince2010.3
Worldtradeseemstohavelargelyrecoveredfromitsslumpinthespring,drivenbythere-openingofproductionplants,significantriseofe-commerceandthequickeconomicrecoveryinChina.
Nevertheless,uncertaintyremainshighandthesecondwaveofCOVID-19infectionsandthecurrentspreadofCOVID-19mutationscouldputtradeunderpressureagain.Itremainstobeseenwhetherpredictionsaboutnormalisationwillprovetobecorrect.Atthesametime,freightforwarders,carriersandcontractlogisticsprovidersstillfacetherisksofcustomersdefaultingandoperationalobstacles.
Source:IATA–InternationalAirTransportAssociation|IndustryStatistics|November2020
Source:RWI–LeibnizInstituteforEconomicResearch
Source:TransportIntelligence
|19January2021Transportandlogisticsbarometer
Differenceindefaultrisk
LookingatthedevelopmentofCDS(creditdefaultswap)spreads,investors’
Quarterlyrevenuesincludinganalystestimates(2019average=100)
ThesplitintheT&Lindustrybecomesapparentthroughouranalysisofactualandexpectedquarterlyrevenuedevelopmentofmorethan200listedT&Lcompaniesin2020.Itcanbeobservedthatboththepassenger-relatedsubsectorsandthefreight-relatedsubsectorswerebelowthe2019averagethroughout2020,withtheexceptionofLogistics&TruckinginQ4.
However,passenger-relatedoperationsexperiencedmoresignificantdeclines,andquarterlyrevenueswereinsomecases(e.g.airlines)upto80%lowerthanthe2019average.RecoverystartedinQ2,butataslowpace,sothatpre-crisislevelsarenotexpectedtobereachedin2021.
Thefreight-relatedsubsectorshavebeenlessaffectedincomparison:theirquarterlyrevenueswereoftennomorethan20%belowthe2019averageandareexpectedtofurtherapproachpre-crisislevelsinthecomingmonths.FreighttransporthasprofitedfromsupplychainsstartingtostabiliseinQ32020andtheassociatedincreaseindemandasenterprisesstartedrestockingtheirinventoriesandconsumersstimulatede-commercebyincreasinglyshiftingtheirconsumptiontotheinternet.
perceivedriskofdefaultwashighestinallsubsectorsoftheT&Lindustryinthesecondquarter.Sincethen,thesituationhaseasedsomewhat,andthedefaultriskrecognisedattheendoftheyearisinsomecasesevenlowerthanpre-crisislevels,inbothpassengertransportandfreighttransport.
Onlyairlinesstandoutfromothersub-sectors,withamedian5-yearCDSspreadinearlyOctobersixtimeshigherthanthe2019average.Thefurtherincreasethroughouttheyearisaresultofthealmostcompletehaltinairtrafficandtheassociatedworseningsituationatairlines.Itappearsthatinvestorsnolongertrustmostairlines’abilitiestoservicetheirdebtsonthecapitalmarket.TheCDSspreadsituationforairlinesimprovedslightlyinthelasttwomonthsoftheyear,butthelevelofuncertaintyisstillmuchhigherthanintherestoftheindustry.
However,thedefaultrisk,whichwasperceivedoverallasaverage,encouragedinvestorstoenterintoM&Adealsdespitetheseverelossesinrevenueinsomesubsectors.
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
20191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q21Source:PwCanalysisbasedonS&PGlobalCapitalIQ
Median5-yearCDSspread(2019average=100)
650
550
450
350
250
150
50
Infrastructure(Airport)
Infrastructure(Port)
Infrastructure(Road)
Logistics&Trucking
PassengerAir
PassengerGround
Rail
Shipping
Infrastructure(Airport)
Infrastructure(Port)
Infrastructure(Road)
Logistics&Trucking
PassengerAir
Rail
Shipping
Source:PwCanalysisbasedonS&PGlobalCapitalIQ
|19January2021Transportandlogisticsbarometer
Dealactivitysurpasses2018level
SincetheT&Lindustry’ssubsectorsarebeingaffecteddifferentlybytheCOVID-19pandemic,theassociateduncertaintyhasledtoslightlyweakerM&Aactivityoverallcomparedto2019.However,contrarytoexpectations,thenumberofdealsinT&Lhasnotplummeted.Atotalof244dealsworthatleast$50millionwereannouncedin2020,comparedtoa5-yearaverageof250dealsperyear,implyingthatinvestorsarestillenteringintoacquisitions,buttheyarefocusingonsmallertransactionswithlessriskintermsofvalue.Thisisreflectedinthetotaldealvalue($84.3billion)andaveragedealvalue($345.6million),whichshrankby30%and28%respectivelyin2020comparedtothe5-yearaverage.
Similarly,fewermegadeals(17)wereannouncedfor2020(2019:21),whichalsohadamuchlowerdealvaluethantheyearbefore.Onlyonemegadealreachedthe$4billionmark,whilein2019,theexceptionalBlackstonedeal(USlogisticsassets,$18.7billion)andothermajordealsdroveupthetotaldealvalue.
Thebiggestdealannouncedin2020isinpassengertransport;morespecifically,theaviationindustry.BlackstoneagreedtoacquireSignatureAviationPLC,aLondon-basedproviderofairtransportationsupportservicesfortheglobalbusinessandgeneralaviationmarket,foratotalof$4.29billion.Thisisoneexampleofanairlinesandairportsdeal;dealsinthissubsectormadeupapproximately40%ofthe67totalmergersandacquisitionsinthepassengertransportsegment.Theshareofannouncementsinvolvingairlinesandairportsisthusstable,buttherationaleofmanytransactionshasshiftedtowardscostreductionorshort-termliquidity.
TargetsinLogistics&Truckingandinfrastructureassetsseemtobeappealing,withtenmegadealsannouncedintotal.Infreighttransport,thelargesttransactionannouncedinvolvedportinfrastructure:DalianPortCoLtdagreedtomergewithYingkouPortLiabilityCoLtd,aYingkou-basedproviderofmarinecargohandlingservices,throughastockswaptransactionvaluedat$2.84billion.Besidesthis,thefreightsegmentwitnessedatotalof177dealannouncements,which,asinpreviousyears,weredominatedbyahighnumberofdealsinLogistics&Trucking.OftheseLogistics&Truckingdeals,46%relatetoware-housingoperationsandassets,reflectingthekeyroleofretaillogistics,warehousingandparceldeliveryinindustrydynamics.
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Total
Total
1H17
2H17
Total
1H18
2H18
Total
1H19
2H19
Total
1H20
2H20
Total
Numberofdeals
239
237
146
137
283
127
100
227
138
123
261
103
141
244
Totaldealvalue
183.8
119.9
62.9
71.3
134.2
74.6
41.6
116.2
68.4
76.7
145.1
36.7
47.6
84.3
($bn)
Averagedeal
769.2
506.1
430.7
520.4
474.1
587.1
416.5
511.9
495.5
623.5
556.0
356.7
337.5
345.6
value($m)
Source:PwCanalysisbasedonRefinitiv
|19January2021Transportandlogisticsbarometer
T&LdealsdefyGDPdevelopment
Basedonhistoricaldata,wehaveidentifiedacorrelationbetweenglobalGDPandM&AactivityintheT&Lindustryintermsofnumberofdeals.However,thiscorrelationdidnotprovetruein2020,becausealthoughrealGDPin2020recordedanevensharperdeclinethanduringthefinancialcrisisin2008/09,thenumberofT&Ldealsannouncedonlyfellslightlycomparedto2019.
Theyear2020startedwithanegativerealGDPgrowthrateof–2.6%,butafterthesteepdropinQ2to–8.6%ithasrecoveredsomewhatoverthecourseoftheyeartostandat3.4%year-on-yearinQ4.T&Ldealannouncementsalsofellslightlyinthefirsthalfoftheyear,butreturnedto2019levelsbythethirdquarter.
ItseemsthatthecrisishasnothadmuchofanegativeimpactonM&AdealactivityintheT&Lindustryandthatthebottomhasbeenpassed.Theindustryhasbenefittedfromthealreadyhighlevelofdrypowder,whichhasrisenfurtherafterabrieflullinthesummermonths,leadingtoabacklogsituationandencouraginginvestorstoengageinmergersandacquisitions.
Incontrast,strategicalliancesdonotrevealsuchconsistency.Whiletheirnumberhassteadilydecreasedsince2007,anewlowwasreachedin2020,farbelowthelevelduringthefinancialcrisis,whenthenumberofstrategicallianceswasratherhigh.Inthefirstquarterof2020,strategicallianceswerestillatthelevelofthepreviousyearandthenfellsignificantlywiththeincreasingimpactofthecrisis.Thisispartlybecausecodeshareagreementsaccountedforaconsiderableshareofstrategicalliancesinpreviousyearsandhavenowalmostcompletelydisappearedduetothecollapseofaviation.However,jointventuresandotherformsofcollaborationarealsoattheirlowestpointinthepast15years.
Thereasonsbehindthismaybeongoinguncertaintyandsomecompanies–especiallypassenger-servingcompanies–stillstrugglingtosurvive,puttingalltheireffortsintostabilisation,liquidityandrestructuring.
T&Ldealsperyear
(no.ofdealsandchangeinrealglobalGDP)
300
10
250
5
200
150
0
100
-5
50
0
-10
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Numberofdeals
GlobalGDP(real),USD,%changeonpreviousyear
Source:PwCanalysisbasedonRefinitivandIHS
T&Lstrategicalliancesperyear
(no.ofannouncementsandchangeinrealglobalGDP)
500
10
400
5
300
0
200
100
-5
0
-10
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Codeshareagreement
Jointventure
Othercollaboration
GlobalGDP(real),USD,
%changeonpreviousyear
Source:PwCanalysisbasedonS&PGlobalCapitalIQandIHS
|19January2021Transportandlogisticsbarometer
Passengervs.freight:ondifferenttracks
Historically,theratiooffreight-relatedtargetstopassengers-relatedtargetswas,onaverage,about60/40–bothintermsofnumberofdealsandintermsoftotaldealvalue.In2020,ashifttowardsfreightcanbeobservedinthetotaldealnumber,reflectingthedifferentextenttowhichthetwosectorswereaffectedbythecrisis.Whilethefreighttransportandlogisticssectorsawan11%increase,29%fewerdealswereannouncedinthepassengertransportsector,whichledtotheoveralldecreaseinthetotalnumberofdealscomparedto2019.
ItappearsthattheCOVID-19crisishasresultedinpassenger-relatedtargetsbeinglessattractiveforinvestorsduetothehighlydeterioratedmarketandcorrespondinguncertainty,whichhasincreasedriskaversionandsubduedwillingnesstostrikesuchdeals.
However,althoughtherewerefewerdealsannouncedwithpassenger-relatedtargets,thesetendedtobethelargerdeals.Theaveragedealvalue,whichinthepastwasusuallysimilarforbothtypesoftargets,isnowabout1.5timeshigherforpassenger-relatedtransactionsthanforfreight-relateddeals.Thecrisishasputeventhelargerpassengertransportcompanies–suchasairlines–intodistress,causingthemtoneedfinancialaidfromgovernmentsorprivateinvestorsandthusfavouringdeals.
ThepandemichasledtoanewlowinM&Avaluation,withthemedianvalue/salesmultipleforT&Ltargetsdecreasingto1.0,farbelowthe10-yearaverageof1.8.Thisismainlybeingdrivenbyastrongdeclineinpricesforpassenger-relatedtargets,from1.3to0.7in2020.
Thepricesforfreight-relatedtargets,incontrast,havenotchanged.Itmustbetakenintoaccountthatthemultiplesarecalculatedonthebasisofpreviousyear’srevenues,whileinvestorsvaluetheirtargetsaccordingtorevenueexpectationsforthecomingyears,whicharelikelytobesignificantlybelow2019levelsinthepassengertransportsector.
T&Ldealsperyear(no.ofdeals)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Freight-relatedtarget
Passenger-relatedtarget
Freightvs.passenger(long-termaverage)
Source:PwCanalysisbasedonRefinitivandIHS
T&Ldealsperyear(totaldealvalue)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Freight-relatedtarget
Passenger-relatedtarget
Freightvs.passenger(long-termaverage)
Source:PwCanalysisbasedonS&PGlobalCapitalIQandIHS
|19January2021Transportandlogisticsbarometer
Passengertransport
|19January2021Transportandlogisticsbarometer
Deepdive:ashakyyearforairtransport
TheCOVID-19pandemichasbeenthedefiningtopicofthepastyearandwillmostlikelycontinuetobeforatleastthecomingyear.ThefailuretocontrolthespreadofthevirusledtosecondorthirdwavesofCOVID-19,hamperingairtravelrecoveryinmanymarketsinH22020.
Acrosstravelsegments,airlinessufferedmostsignificantly,alongsidetouroperators,sharedapartmentprovidersandcruiselines.TNMTanalysisshowsthatthenumberofcommercialairlineticketssoldsinceAprilhasconstantlylainmorethan90%belowthelevelofthepreviousyear.1
Indetail,worldwidepassengernumbersfell60%to1.8billion,from4.5billionin2019.Revenuepassengerkilometres(RPK)weredownbyover66%.2Thenumberofpassengerstravelledlastyearisthelowestinover16years.Globalpassengerloadfactor(PLF)fellto65.5%onaverage.3Interestingly,andincontrasttointernationaltravel,averydifferentpicturewasvisibleacrossdomesticairtransportmarkets:whereasNorthAmericaandEuropearestillsufferingheavily,domesticairtravelinChinaandRussiabegantorecoverearly,andcatchuptopre-crisislevelstowardsQ42020.
Theaircargosegment,ontheotherhand,hasfallenlittleafteraninitialdipandshowedstrongperformancetowardstheendoftheyear.Duetoaslighteconomicreboundfollowingthelockdownperiod,cargotonne-kilometres(CTK)weredownbyjust12%.4Asaircargotrafficremainsessentialforglobalsupplychains,theprevailingchallengeremainsthe(belly)capacityshortage.
Airportsharmedbydependenceonairtraffic
Thebusinesssituationofairportsiscloselylinkedtothepassengervolumeofairlines.Airportsinternationallyhavebeenaffectedbyadramaticdeclineinpassengernumbers,puttingthemindistress.EuropeandtheMiddleEastareprojectedtobethehardesthit,withdeclinesofmorethan70%comparedtothepredictedbaselinein2020.5
Inlinewithairlines,passengernumbersfellsignificantlyinApril.Thesituationseemedtoeaseduringsummer,butfromtheautumnonwardsthenumberofpassengersdecreasedagaininthewakeofthedeterioratingsituationofthepandemic.Inaddition,newrestrictionsaffectingairtravelwereimposedinDecemberwiththeemergenceofthefirstmutationsofthevirus.Forexample,over40countriesinEurope,Asia,SouthAmerica,theCaribbeanandMiddleEasthavesuspendedalltravellinkstoandfromtheUK.Whilesomecountriesimposedtheflightbanonlytemporarily,others–likeGermanyorIndia–haveextendedituntilatleasttheendofJanuary.
Throughouttheyear,thecargobusinesshastosomeextentservedasastabiliseratsomeairports,buttheunprecedentedsituationledtoanoveralllossof$112billion(65%)ofairportrevenuescomparedtopre-crisisestimates.6Thiscorrespondstoanegativeimpactontheliquidityofairportoperatorsandwillrequireextensiverestructuringandrecapitalisationmeasures.Inadditiontoequitycontributionsfrom(public)shareholders,bankloansarebeingtakenoutorbondsissued.
1Source:TNMT–Travel&MobilityTech
2Source:IATA|AnnualReview2020
3Source:IATA|EconomicPerformanceoftheairline
industry|November2020
4Source:IATA|Aircargomarketanalysis|November2020
5Source:AirportCouncilInternational(ACI)World|The
impactofCOVID-19ontheairportbusiness|December2020
6Source:ibid.
|19January2021Transportandlogisticsbarometer
Developmentofpassengertraffic(billionpassengers)
–60%
4.7
4.4
4.5
3.6
3.8
4.1
3.3
3.1
2.9
3.0
2.8
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.0
1.8
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20F* 2021F**
Source:IATADecember2020;*forecastbeforeCOVID-19;**forecastwithCOVID-19
DevelopmentofglobalGDPandRPK/CTK(2014=100%)
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021F
Revenuepassengerkilometres(RPK)
Cargotonne-kilometres(CTK)
GlobalGDP(real)
Sources:IATA,IMF,WorldBank,PwCanalysis
ThemostsignificantdeclineinairtravelsinceWorldWar2
Fromaneconomicperspective,2020hasbeenthemostdevastatingyearinairtransporthistorysinceWW2,withCOVID-19causingatotalnetlosstotheairlineindustryofalmost$119billion.1
DespitesometravelrestrictionsbeingliftedinQ32020,awidespreadreboundineconomicactivityhasnotyetoccurred:airlines’profitabilityremainsnegativeinallregions,butslightlyimprovedcomparedtothelockdownperiodofQ2.NorthAmericaisexpectedtoreportthelargestnetlossin2020($45.8bn),whileAsia&Pacificwasabletomakesomerecoveryinlargedomesticmarkets,reducingitslossestoanestimated$31.7billion.2
IATAestimatesthataround43millionjobsareatriskfromthedramaticfallindemandfortravel.3Mainlyforthisreason,airlinesarebeingsupportedbygovernmentsintheformofequityinvestments,state-backedloans,taxconcessionsorwagesubsidies,
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