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CriticalMinerals
OutlooksComparison
AReportbytheInternationalEnergyForumandThePayneInstituteofPublicPolicyattheColoradoSchoolofMines
August2023
AreportbytheInternationalEnergyForumandThePayneInstituteofPublicPolicyattheColoradoSchoolofMines
August2023
Writtenandproducedby:
JulietAkamboe
EbenezerManful-Sam
FelixAyaburi
MasonHamilton
MorganBazilian
jsakamboe@
manfulsam@
fzayaburi@
mason.hamilton@
mbazilian@
AbouttheInternationalEnergyForum
TheInternationalEnergyForum(IEF)istheworld'slargestinternationalorganizationofenergyministersfrom71countriesandincludesbothproducingandconsumingnations.TheIEFhasabroadmandatetoexamineallenergyissuesincludingoilandgas,cleanandrenewableenergy,sustainability,energytransitionsandnewtechnologies,datatransparency,andenergyaccess.ThroughtheForumanditsassociatedevents,officials,industryexecutives,andotherexpertsengageinadialogueofincreasingimportancetoglobalenergysecurityandsustainability.
AboutThePayneInstitute
ThemissionofthePayneInstituteatColoradoSchoolofMinesistoprovideworld-classscientificinsights,helpingtoinformandshapepublicpolicyonearthresources,energy,andenvironment.TheInstitutewasestablishedwithanendowmentfromJimandArlenePayne,andseekstolinkthestrongscientificandengineeringresearchandexpertiseatMineswithissuesrelatedtopublicpolicyandnationalsecurity.ThePayneInstituteextendstopublicpolicyMines’convictionthatenergyandtheenvironmentmust–andcan–fruitfullycoexist.
TableofContents
Introduction
3
KeyFindings
5
Aluminum
5
Cobalt
7
Copper
9
Graphite
11
Lithium
13
Neodymium
15
Nickel
16
Silver
18
EnergyScenarios
20
ClimateOutcomeDriven
20
SharedEconomicPathways
20
SpeedofTransitionandTechnologicalProgress
20
Technologymixes
20
Othertechnologieswithinfluence
21
ResourceRequirements
21
TopDownvs.BottomUp
23
IntensityandResourceEfficiencyAssumptions
23
Sub-TechnologiesandChemistryShifts
23
Recycling
25
Conclusions
25
References
27
Appendix:BackgroundsofSurveyedReports
28
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2
Introduction
Historically,theenergysectorconstitutedonlyaminorpartofcriticalmineralssupplychainsandmarkets.However,withtheaccelerationofenergytransitions,cleanenergytechnologieshaverapidlyemergedasthesegmentwiththefastestgrowthindemand.
Thishascapturedpublicattentionglobally,andcreatedvarioustrade,market,andgeopoliticalissues.Asaresult,numerousanalyticalscenarioshavebeenproducedtobetterunderstandthisrapidlychangingandcomplexlandscape.
Inafuturetrajectoryalignedwithclimategoals,theproportionoftotalmineralsdemandaccountedforbycleanenergytechnologieswillrisesignificantlyovertheforthcomingtwodecades.Electricvehicles(EVs)andbatterystoragetechnologieshavealreadysupersededconsumerelectronicstobecomethelargestconsumersoflithium,andtheyareprojectedtosurpassstainlesssteeltobecometheprimaryendusersofnickelby2040,andbatteryanodesshareofgraphitedemandhasincreased250%since2018.
Asaresult,severalquantitativedemandmodelshavebeendevelopedtohelpunderstandthescaleofgrowth,andwhethermaterialshortageswillbecomeanobstacletothedeploymentofcleanenergytechnologies.
Thisreportisanon-comprehensivemeta-analysisof11publiclyavailablereportswhichincludevariousassumptionsforenergyandtechnologyscenarios,andtheirresultingcriticalmineralrequirements.Thisexerciseismeanttohighlightkeyinsightsforcriticalmineralsdecisionmakers.Thereportsarefromeightagenciesandorganizationsacrossdifferentgeographies,spanningfrom2019to2023.
.InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)
oWorldEnergyTransitionsOutlook,2023
oGeopoliticsoftheEnergyTransition,2023
oCriticalMineralsfortheEnergyTransition,2021
.InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)
oTheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions,2022
oCriticalMineralsMarketReview,2023
.WorldBank
oMineralsforClimateAction,2020
.InstituteforSustainableFuture(ISF)
oTheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions,2019
.McKinsey&Company
oTheFutureofCriticalMineralsintheNet-ZeroTransition,2021
.CatholicUniversityofLuven(KULuven)
oMetalsforCleanEnergy:PathwaystoSolvingEurope’sRawMaterialsChallenge,2022
.EnergyTransitionsCommission(ETC)
oMineralandResourceRequirementsfortheEnergyTransition,2023
.GermanMineralResourcesAgency(DERA)
oRawMaterialsforEmergingTechnologies,2021
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3
All11reportsconsideredconcurontheincreasingdemandformineralsandtheircentralroleintheenergytransition.However,acrossthe11reports,28differentmineralsandmetalsarementioned,withsufficientdatatocompareonlyeight:aluminum,cobalt,copper,graphite,lithium,neodymium,nickel,andsilver.
Thesedemandprojectionsareinherentlysubjecttolargevariations.Disparitiesintheirspecificmineraldemandprojectionsreflectthedifferenttypesofenergyscenarioschosen,themixoftechnologiesdeployed,assumptionsonresourceintensity,technologydevelopments,andrecyclingrates.
Whileoutsidethescopeofthisreport,thesupplysidealsopresentsconsiderablechallengestolong-termforecaststhatmeritadditionalstudyanddiscussion.Manyofthereportssurveyedhighlightedtheriskstotheirprojectionsfromsupplysiderisks,butonlyafewincorporatedsupplyforecastsalongsidetheirdemandprojections.Allreportssurveyednotedtheimportanceofresponsiblesourcing,supplychaintransparency,recycling,andimprovedminingandprocessingefficiency.
Understandingthepotentialmineraldemandsassociatedwiththecleanenergytransitioniscrucialforpolicymakers,mineralproducers,renewableenergydevelopers,andcivilsocietyorganizationstounlockinvestment,setachievableclimatepolicies,andgainpublicacceptanceofnewmines.
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4
KeyFindings
Aluminum
_____________________________________________________________________________
5
_____________________________________________________________________________
6
Cobalt
_____________________________________________________________________________
7
。
Copper
_____________________________________________________________________________
9
_____________________________________________________________________________
10
Graphite
_____________________________________________________________________________
11
_____________________________________________________________________________
12
Lithium
_____________________________________________________________________________
13
_____________________________________________________________________________
14
Neodymium
Note:ProductiondataofNeodymiuminU.S.GeologicalSurveydataiscategorizedwithother“RareEarthElements”andnotpublishedindividually.
_____________________________________________________________________________
15
Nickel
_____________________________________________________________________________
16
_____________________________________________________________________________
17
Silver
_____________________________________________________________________________
18
_____________________________________________________________________________
19
EnergyScenarios
Thevariousreportshavedifferentenergyandtechnologyscenariostocalculatecriticalmineralrequirementsunderarangeofconditions.
ClimateOutcomeDriven
Multiplescenarioswerecreatedwithaspecificclimate-basedoutcomebyacertaindateasthegoal,andthenmodelstheenergysystemrequiredtoachievethatgoal.
Inthiscollectionofreports,climateoutcomedrivenscenariosrangedfromlimitingglobalaveragetemperatureriseto1.5°Cby2050,alignedwiththeIPCCspecialreport,to1.7°C,orto2°Cincrease.
CommonlyusedscenarioswerederivedfromInternationalEnergyAgencyscenarios,suchastheAnnouncedPoliciesScenario(APS),associatedwitha1.7°Ctemperatureriseby2100,andtheNet-ZeroEnergyScenario(NZE),associatedwitha1.5°Ctemperaturerise.
Additionally,severalreportsusedIEAscenariosdevelopedpriortotheuseofAPSandNZE,suchastheStatedPoliciesScenario(SPS),andtheSustainableDevelopmentScenario(SDS).TheSTEPSscenarioembodiesthepresentpolicylandscape,basedonasector-wiseappraisalofspecificpoliciesinplaceandthoseannouncedbygovernmentsglobally.Incontrast,theSDSscenarioenvisionsapathwaythatfullyrealizesglobalgoalstocombatclimatechangeinaccordancewiththeParisAgreement,ensuresuniversalenergyaccess,andsignificantlycurbsairpollution.Thisscenariopresupposesthefulfilmentofallexistingnet-zeropledges,withconcertedeffortstoachievenear-termemissionsreductions;advancedeconomiesareprojectedtoreachnet-zeroemissionsby2050,Chinaby2060,andallothernationsby2070atthelatest.
SharedEconomicPathways
TheSharedSocioeconomicPathways(SSPs),werecreatedaspartofthe5thAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)forclimatepolicyissues.EachSSPembodiesdifferentassumptionsabouttheglobalenergysystem'sfuture,andconsequentlycanbeusedtocalculatemineraldemandestimates.
SpeedofTransitionandTechnologicalProgress
Otherreportscreatedscenariosthatvariedthespeedandintensityoftheenergytransition,technologicalprogress,andincreasesinbothtechnologyandresourceefficiency.
Technologymixes
Technologiesemphasizedinthesereportsareunanimous,solarphotovoltaics(PV),windturbines,electricvehicles(EVs),batterystoragesystems,andelectricalgridexpansionareallcorecomponentsoftheseprojections.Thesetechnologiesarekeytoloweringgreenhousegasemissionsandsubsequentlydrivethedemandgrowthforcriticalmineralsthroughouttheprojectionperiod.
_____________________________________________________________________________
20
Othertechnologieswithinfluence
Otherclimate-orientedtechnologieslikecarboncaptureuse&sequestration(CCUS),hydrogen,orkeydevelopmentsinotherrenewableenergysourceslikegeothermal,canmakepreviouslylesssustainableoptionsmorefavorableforthefuture,ordrasticallyaltertheneedandcompetitivenessofothers.Whilenotallthereportssurveyeddirectlydelveintoalternativetechnologiesortheirdeployments,theyshouldbeconsideredwhencomparingcriticalmineraldemandprojections.
ResourceRequirements
Whilethetechnologiesacrossthesurveyedreportswerenearlyunanimous,thetranslationofthosetechnologiesintodemandforcriticalmineralsiswherekeymethodologicaldifferencesarise.Forexample,atotaloftwenty-eight(28)mineralsandmetalswerementionedinallthereportssurveyed,echoingthediversityofwhatpolicymakersconsidertobe“critical”minerals.Governmentshaveindependentlydevelopedlistsofwhichmaterialsconstitutesa“criticalmineral”dependingondomesticallyavailableresources,importdependencies,importancetodomesticenergysystems,manufacturingbase,energypolicypriorities,andothercriteria.
_____________________________________________________________________________
21
_____________________________________________________________________________
22
TopDownvs.BottomUp
Therearealsodifferingapproachestoestimatedemandforcriticalmineralsacrossthevarioustechnologies.
The“bottom-up"approachinvolvesestimatingthematerialrequirementsforeachtechnologydeployed,thenmodelingthegrowthofeachtechnologyacrosstheprojectionperiodandscenariostoarriveatanestimateforthequantityofcriticalmineralsrequired.
The“top-down”approachinvolvesestimatingthegrowthrateofvarioustechnologiesacrossascenario,andthenestimatingtherequiredcriticalmineralsbasedonthisgrowth.
IntensityandResourceEfficiencyAssumptions
Withbothbottom-upandtop-downapproaches,assumptionsneedtobemadeontheintensityofmaterialspertechnologydeployed–kilogramsoflithiumperelectricvehicle,forexample.Aswellasassumptionsonifthatmaterialintensitychangesovertime.Theseestimatescanvarywidelyacrossscenariosandprojectionsandareamajorcontributortovarianceacrossthedifferentreportssurveyed.
Conservativeassumptionsarelikelytotakepresentratesofmaterialintensityandholdthemmoreorlessconstantacrossaprojectionperiod.Meaning,thequantityofamaterialrequiredperunitofrenewableenergytechnologyisthesamein2050asitistoday.
Moreprogressiveassumptionsincludegradualorrapidincreasesinresourceefficiencyacrosstheprojectionperiod.Inotherwords,thequantityofmaterialrequiredperunitofrenewableenergytechnologyislessin2050thanitistoday.
Sub-TechnologiesandChemistryShifts
Estimatesofrequiredcriticalmineralscanalsovarybasedonchangeswithinarenewableenergytechnologycategory.Factorssuchascost,energyintensity,andconsumerbehaviorandpreferencescanshapefuturemarketsandsub-technologies.Thesesub-technologiesinturncanfurtherinfluencethespecificmineralsrequiredfortheenergytransition.
Forinstance,acrosssolarenergytherearedifferentsub-technologiesthathavevariouschemistriesandresourcerequirements.Thepotentialpreferenceforcadmiumtelluride(CdTe)solarcellsoverthecurrentlyprevalenttechnology-crystallinesiliconphotovoltaiccells-couldshiftthedemandformineralslikecadmiumandtelluriuminthefuture.
However,themostprevalentexampleofsub-technologiesdrivingchemistryshiftsoccursinbatteries.Changesinmineralprices,processingexpenses,policyincentives,technologicaldevelopment,andotherfactorshaveresultedinamultitudeofbatterycathodechemistrymixessuchasnickel,manganese,cobalt(NMC),nickel,cobalt,aluminumoxide(NCA),andlithium,iron,phosphate(LFP)batteries.
Ingeneral,NMCcathodesrequirenearlyeighttimesmorecobaltthanNCAlithiumbatteries,butonlyhalfthenickelamount.LFPbatteries,whichdonotrequirenickel,manganese,orcobalt,requiremorecopperthanNMCbatteriesandphosphorus,akeyingredientinlarge-scalefertilizerproduction.
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23
Asaresultofthediversityinbatterycathodechemistry,changesinthepriceforoneormorebatteryrawmaterialscangreatlyinfluencetheprevailingorpredominantbatterytypedeployed.Suchshiftshavealreadyoccurredoverthecourseofthepast5-10yearsandarelikelytooccuragaininthefuture.Withinthepast5-years,highcobaltpricesandsupplychainissuesresultedinmanybatterymanufacturersshiftingtolow-cobaltbatterychemistries.Thenhighnickelpricesreducedthepricecompetitivenessofhigh-nickelcontentbatterychemistriesversusLFPbatteries.Thenin2022,asurgeinlithiumpricesledtoanincreaseinLFPbatterycostscomparedwithotherchemistries.WhileLFPbatteriesremainthemostaffordablebatterytechnologyperkilowatt-hour,asustainedincreaseinlithiumpricescouldslowdownthedeploymentofLFPasbatterychemistrypreference.
Thesedifferencesandthechangingadvancementsintechnologymakemineraldemandmodelsdifficulttoestimate.Thisresultsinawiderangeofmineraldemandestimates,evenwhen
_____________________________________________________________________________
24
researchersagreeonthewidescaledeploymentofaspecificlow-carbonorrenewableenergytechnology.
Recycling
Whileallreportssurveyedinthisstudysuggestthatrecyclingcanbeausefultoolinmanagingcriticalmaterialssupply,itisalsoamajorsourceofvarianceacrosscriticalmineralrequirementestimates.
Recyclingratesvarygreatlyacrossdifferentmineralsbecauseofcosts,complexities,compromisedqualityoffinalproduct,ormaterialavailability.Aluminumandcopperaretwoofthemostwidelyrecycledmaterialsaswellastwomaterialsthatoverlapacrossnumerouslow-carbonandrenewableenergytechnologies.Meanwhile,recyclingtechnologyforcertaincriticalmaterialsisstillbeingdevelopedandnotyetatscale.Additionally,dataisoftenlackingforrecyclingratesbeiteitherbymaterial,feedstocksource(batteries,solarpanels,scrap,etc.),orregion.
However,theassumptionsmadeonrecyclingratesintheseprojectionsgreatlyinfluencetheimplicationsfornewminerequirements,supplychaindiversity,sustainability,andpolicy.Conservativeassumptionsofstagnantrecyclingratesintothefutureformanymineralswouldlikelytranslateintoprojectionsshowingafargreaterneedfornewmines,mininginvestment,andsupplychainexpansion.Progressiveassumptionsofincreasingrecyclingratesornearfully-cycleclosedloopsupplychainswouldlikelyresultinprojectionswithfewerlong-termnewminesrequirements.Cobaltandlithiumaretwocriticalmaterialsthathavethehighestnear-termriskofdemandoutpacingsupplyaccordingtomanyofthereportssurveyedinthisstudy.Asignificantfuturesourceofbothcouldbefromincreasedrecyclingratesofend-of-lifeelectricvehiclebatteries.However,recyclinginfrastructureforEVbatteriesisstillinitsinfancy,andtherearestilltechnologicalchallengestoovercome.Forexample,lithiumistechnicallyrecyclablebutischallengingtoisolatefromothercathodematerialswithouttheuseofcostlyorganicreagents.
Acrosstheprojectionssurveyed,themedium-term,~2035-2045,isthekeymakeorbreakpointforEVrecyclingratesandthuslithium,cobalt,andseveralothermineralsupplyrequirements.ThisreflectsboththetimeneededforrecyclinginfrastructureandtechnologytomatureaswellasthetimeneededforEV’sshareofglobalvehiclefleetstogeneratesufficientfeedstock(end-of-lifebatteries)forascaled-uprecyclingindustry.
Conclusions
Theimpendingtransitiontolow-carbonenergytechnologieshasalreadyaffectedcriticalmineralsupplychains,prices,anddemand.Still,itwillcontinuetobeverydifficulttoaccuratelyforecast.Whileprojectionsunanimouslyenvisionintensedeploymentofbatteryelectricvehicles,wind,solar,andothermineral-intenseenergytechnologiestoachieveclimategoals.Continuousvariationsinenergymarkets,technologicaladvancements,costs,emissions,andconsumerpreferencesresultinanever-changingmineraldemandlandscape.
Althoughoutsidethescopeofthisreport,therearesignificantrisksonthesupplysidetotheseprojections.Whilemostmodelsdonotanticipatescarcityanddepletionofmineralresources,factorssuchasgeopolitics,decades-longdevelopmenttimelinesfornewmines,highcapital
_____________________________________________________________________________
25
requirements,increasingESGpressures,anddecliningorequalityindicateahighriskforperiodsofdemandexceedingsupply.
Whileprojectionsoffuturecriticalmineralsdemandrequirementsarenecessarytounderstandthescaleofthechallengeamineral-drivenenergytransitionpresents,itisequallynecessarytounderstandthevastamountofuncertaintythatisinherentinsuchprojections.Thereportssurveyedforthisreportshouldbeconsideredthefirstgenerationoftheirkind.Improveddatacollectionandincreasedcollaborationbetweentheenergymodelingcommunityandthemetalsandminingcommunitywillyieldbetter,standardized,andmorecomprehensiveoutlooksinthefuture.
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26
References
.Bain,J.(2021).GridParity:TheArtofFinancingRenewableEnergyProjectsintheU.S.Springer.
.Bingoto,P.,Foucart,M.,Gusakova,M.,Hundertmark,T.,&VanHoey,M.(2021).Thefutureofcriticalmineralsinthenet-zerotransition.McKinsey&Company.
.Dominish,E.,Florin,N.,&Teske,S.(2019).ResponsibleMineralsSourcingforRenewableEnergy.ReportpreparedforEarthworksbytheInstituteforSustainableFutures,UniversityofTechnologySydney.
.EnergyTransitionsCommission.(2023).MaterialandResourceRequirementsfortheEnergyTransition.
.GermanMineralResourcesAgency(DERA).(2021).Rawmaterialsforemergingtechnologies2021.CommissionedbytheFederalInstituteforGeosciencesandNaturalResources(BGR),Berlin.
.Gielen,D.(2021).Criticalmineralsfortheenergytransition.InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi.
.InternationalEnergyAgency(2021).TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions.InternationalEnergyAgency.
.InternationalEnergyAgency(2023).CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023.International
EnergyAgency.
.InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(2023).Geopoliticsoftheenergytransition:Criticalmaterials.InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi.
.InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(2023).WorldEnergyTransitionsOutlook2023:
1.5°CPathway,Volume1.InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi.
.KULeuven.(2022).MetalsforCleanEnergy.MetalsCleanEnergy.
.WorldBank(2020).MineralsforClimateAction:TheMineralIntensityoftheCleanEnergyTransition.WorldBank.
.UnitedStatesGeologicSurvey,USGS(2023).MineralCommoditySummaries,variousmetals.
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27
Appendix:BackgroundsofSurveyedReports
.IRENA(2021;2023),broadlydiscusshowinnovationwillaffectdemandforcriticalmaterialsandtheneedforacomprehensivepolicyframeworkthatnotonlytransformsenergysystemsbutalsoprotectspeople,livelihoods,andjobs.IRENA(2023),uniquelyhighlightsthegeopoliticalaspectsofcriticalminerals,includingtheconcentrationofproductioninafewcountriesandthepotentialforsupplydisruptionsduetotradetensionsorotherfactors.AllthreereportsfromIRENAdepictstrategiestomitigatecriticalmaterialsdependencies,includingrecycling,substitution,anddiversificationofsupplysources.
.IEAreports(2022;2023)highlighttheimportanceofcriticalmineralsforthetransitiontoalow-carbonenergysystemandidentifypotentialrisksandchallengesassociatedwiththeirsupplyanddemand.IEAprovidessomeofthemoredetailedanalysisanddeepdivesintothekeymineraldemandandsupplyprojections.Also,thesereportsprovideacomprehensiveoverviewofthecurrentstateofcriticalmineralsinvestmentsandmarkettrends,andtheyresponddirectlytotherequestsintheG7Five-PointPlanforcriticalmineralssecurity.
.WorldBank(2020)MineralsforClimatereportexaminesthepotentialfordifferentcountriesandregionstodeveloptheirowncriticalmineralresourcesandsupplychains,andthepotentialimplicationsforglobaltradeandgeopolitics.Thepaperisuniqueinitscomprehensiveanalysisofthemineralintensityofthecleanenergytransition,itsdetailedexaminationofthepotentialenvironmentalandsocialimpactsofcriticalmineralproductionanddisposal,anditsglobalperspectiveontheimplicationsofthecleanenergytransitionformineralmarkets,trade,andgeopolitics.
.UniversityofTechnologySydney:InstituteforSustainableFutures,ISF(2019),offersforecastsregardingthefutureneedformetals,whicharedesignedbasedonanaggressiverenewableenergysituation.Thestudyevaluatesthesupplyuncertaintiesconnectedwiththecentralizedproductionandreserves,thepercentageofrenewableenergyinend-use,andthecriticalnatureofthesupplychain.Moreover,thereportcriticallyexaminestheidentifiedimpactsofminingontheenvironment,health,andhumanrights.
.McKinsey&Company(2021)emphasizestheimportanceofsustainabilityinthetransitiontoanet-zeroemissionseconomyandhowtheindustryshouldcomplywithorexceedtheenvironmental,social,andgovernancestandards.Thepaperprovidesrecommendationsforpolicymakersandindustryleaderstoensureasecureandsustainablesupplyofcriticalminerals.Theauthorsproposestrategiesforincreasingthe
productionofcriticalminerals,improvingtherecyclingandreuseofthesematerials,and reducingtheenvironmentalandsocialimpactsofminingandprocessingthesematerials..GermanMi
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