中國(guó)石油天然氣上下游基金投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理策略

ProactiveStructuralStrategicChina/GLobalFundRiskManagement

China/Globaloil,gas,housingindustrymarketfundamentalmechanism,risksEarlyWarningOperationsSimulationAnalysis(OSA)

中國(guó)石油天然氣上下游基金投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理策略

Monetary,Economic,FiscalPolicyImpactonChina/GlobalMacro-economicControl,Oil,Gas,Housingdemand,prices

Mechanism

andInvestmentRisksSimulation/Forecasts

WarrenHuang(黃華南博士),PhD,Founder/CEOOSAGlobalStrategicManagementwh3928@/

osawhh@

RevisionforChinaFundWorld,PudongConference,March5,2008LectureSummary

ProactiveStructuralRisksMechanismOperationsSimulationAnalysis

OSAMethodology:Twomasterhandscontrollinglast20yearsGlobalenergy,housing,assetpricebubbleburstMechanism,AllocationFundRisksearlywarning1.China/GlobalCountryRisks:Macroeconomiccontrol,housingbubbleburst,mortgagecrisispolicyimpactoninflation,recession,interestratesanalysis

2.CurrencyRisks:Interestrate,tradesurplusimpactonRMB,globalcurrencymarketforcesmechanism,currencycrisisforecasts

3.CreditRisks:Oil,gas,China/Foreignplayerscashflow,profits,housingpricebubbleburstimpactoncreditratingandloandefaultsrisk

4.OperationalRisks:Allphasesofoil,gas,power,banking,finance,dailytrading,profitperformancerisksreporting,monitoring,simulation.5.MarketRisks:ProactiveVaRpricingforhousing,banking,financeoil,gas,demand,performance,stock,derivativespricesdynamicsmechanismforecast6.Causes,onset,recoveryofdisaster,energy,banking,mortgage,financialcrisis,assetpricesbubble,debt,equities,propertiesNPL7.RisksHedging:Oil,gas,currency,interestratefutures,derivativespricesforecasts,riskshedging.8.CorporateGovernance:Operating,Cost,Financialaccountingdatatracking,assetpricebubbleandscandalscyclesearningwarning9M/A,IPORisks:Jointventures,preandpostM/AandIPOperformance,stockprices,riskstracking.OSAchallengestheunknownfutures,fightcompetition,maximizeRiskadjustedreturninoil,gas,fundinvestment

CountryRisksOSA:Monetarypolicy,WTOimpactoninflation,GDPgrowth

貨幣財(cái)經(jīng)政策入世對(duì)中外宏觀調(diào)控影響Excessivemoneysupply,ratecuts,DFIresultedsoaringcommodity,assetpricesandfallingUSdollarpushinflationandGDPhigherexportMonetarypolicyForeigndirectinvestmentBusinessdemand

Fixed

investmentConsumerdemandMacro-economicinflationandGDPgrowthcurrencyCommoditypricesMonetary,economic,fiscalpolicyimpactonGlobal/Chinamacro-economiccontrolanddailyoil,gas,capitalmarketassetpricessince1983Dr.Huangstructuraldynamicmodelsaccuratelypredicteconomic,energycrisissince1980onAmericanInstitute.ChemicalEngineeringWashingtonDC,WorldCongress1986,TokyoHeaccuratelypredictedinJuly10,1994toWallStreetJournalandWuhanGuotai,WanguoCEOthatShanghaiAindexwillsoaredto800from333inAug.1994.(WSJpublishedlateJulyChinaBsharerebound,ShanghaiAreboundto820inAug-Oct,1994)HewasinvitedbyWanguo,GuotaiandbankingCEOtoofferlecturetothousandsinvestors,traders,moneymanagerpredictedShanghaiAwillbetraded600-800during1994-1996duetomacro-economiccontrol,resultspublishedonWuhansecuritiesnewsOct.31,andBeijinFinancialTimes1994HeaccuratelypredictedinWuhanstockinformationjournalFeb.1995thatShanghaiAwillreboundfrom540to800.ItdidonMay18soaredfrom590to920andplungedto580inthreedays,recommendedbuyShanghaiPetrochemicalatonedollarsoaredto8inAug.HeaccuratelypredictedJune20,1995onBeijinCentralPeoplesradioonehourinterview,andFinancialTimes,EconomicDailynews,CommercialTimesthatShanghaiAwillsoarfrom600to800inAug.1995.PredictedonWuhansecuritiesnewsMarch3,1996,thatChinaPeoplesBankwillcutinterestrate,stockmarketgotobullmarkets,ShanghaiAbreak1600.LecturedShanghaiEasternradioandShanghaistockexchange,Dec.16,1996topredictShanghaiAwillreboundfrom1000to1700in1997after10%pricelimit.andtoBeijingPeoplesBankfinancestaffJuly2001Chinastockplungeto1500from2200.PredictedNov2003onEuro-eventsChinafinance,capitalmarketconferencethatoil,commodity,metalpricesmakingnewhigh,soaringinflationleadtoUS,Chinaratehikes2004summer,stockpricesplungeandhousing,stockspricebubbles2007bubbleburstChina/GlobalEconomic,Enterprisesreform,privatizationMBOandIPOPricesMechanismPrivatization,boardmembersorganization,debtrestructuring.Maximizecorporate/plantwidecost,financialaccountingtracking,operatingprofitmarginthroughcostreductionandproducts,marketinnovationdevelop,implementedbygoal,mission,performanceorientedstrategic(topmanagement),andexecutiveOperationsSimulationAnalysisteamsmaximizeChina,USoil,gascorporateperformancesandIPOstockpricesin

MBO/IPOprices=F(listedmarketinvestorsentiment,

andcorporateprofitmargin)

=F(Shanghai/Shenzhenindex,corporateprofitmargin)

Chinaoil/gasADRsharesprices(SINOPEC,PetroChina,CNOOC

IPOaftermarketprices=F(Chinamarketinvestorsentiment,USmarketinvestorsentiment,andcorporateprofitmargin)

=F(DowJonesindex,Shanghai/Shenzhenindex,corporateprofitmargin)ProactivestructuralChina/GlobalInflation,interestrateRisks,Government,corporatebondyieldPriceMechanismsimulationSoaringasset,commodityprices,fallingcurrencyexcessivemoneysupplyledtocontinuedChina/USinflation,credittighteningledtorisinginterestratesandbondyieldsInflationratesInterestratesandbondyieldConsumerspendingcurrency

oil,

commodity,assetpricesMoneysupplygrowthcurrencyProactiveStructuralglobalcurrencyandRMBmarketforcesrisksmechanismsimulationUStradedeficit

China/countrytrade

surplus/deficitDailyUSdollar,RMBglobalexchangeratesfuturespricesInterestratespreadbetweenUSandyoursIntegratingintoBlack-ScholeforderivativespriceshedgingProactiveStructuralChina/Globalhousingprices,bubbles,wealthrisksmechanismsimulationHousingpricesandheating,appliancesdemandarefueledbymoneysupply,excessivecredit,stockmarketswealthgain,predictedJune2007Peking

Univ,thatChinahousingandstockpricescorrectionlate2007MoneysupplygrowthMortgageinterestrateHousingpricesbubble,wealthHousingstockpricessimulationStockmarketwealthStockindexchangesMBScreditderivativesHomeheating

demand,pricesHomeappliances

demandProactiveStructuralMarketRisks:Global/ChinaStockindicespricesfuturesmarketmechanismsimulationMoneysupplygrowthConsumerspendingInterestrate/inflationrateChinaShanghai/Shenzhen300,A,B,Henseng,H-Share,Nikkei,TaiwanIndex,SingaporeSTHstockindex,Seoulfutures,Investorssentiment,tradingvolumeUSinvestorsentimentNYDowJones/NasdaqstockindexIntegrateintoBlack-ScholeForderivativesprices,hedgingcurrencyProactiveStructuralChina/Globalcoal,oil,gas,freight,powerdemand,pricesstockpricesmechanismsimulationChinaoil,gasdownstreamarewellpositioned,fullyintegratedfollowDr.Huang1991speechtoSINOPEC,Beijinonglobalization,integrationstrategyCNOOC,SINOPEC,PetroChinaandcoalstockpricesskyatrocketing,PredictedPekinguniv.2007thatFedratecutsdriveoilpriceover100,2008CurrencyCoal,crudeoil,heatingoil,gasoline,futures,petrochemical,plasticspricesProfitmargin,stockssimulationGasoline,heatingoil,petrochemicalfeedstockPrices,costsConsumer

Business

spendingPower

plant

rateland,ocean

freight

costCoal,gas,LNG

demand,priceProactiveStructuralChina/GlobalBanking,FinanceEnterprisesReformand,merger/acquisitionperformanceriskssimulationCutpre-merger,jointventurecostsby50%inpre-mergerspeculation

Stockpricesplungedmorethan50-90%gainedinpre-mergerspeculation

postmergerintegration,profitcreationperformances,InvestorsentimentsPostmergerprofitmarginPreandpostmergerprofitmarginPerformanceimprovementandstockPricessimulationPostmergerintegration

performancePre-merger,reformgoal

settingtargetingProactiveStructuralChina/Globalcorporategovernance,assetbubbleburstscandalsmechanismrisksearlywarningsimulationTrackingcostandfinancialaccountingsystemsandinvestorssentimentspeculationbubblesforscandalsearlywarninginUSEnronandChinaGuanxia,STstocksandChinaAviationOilandpensionfundinvestmentinhousingmarketscandals2004-2007ProductionandsalestrackingfinancialaccountingearningtrackingBalancesheetandoff-balancesheetDerivatives,IPO,mergeractivitiestrackingStrategicandexecutioncorporategovernanceOSAteamstrackingCostandfinancialaccountingstockpricesCostaccounting

bubbletrackingInvestorsentiments,housing,oil,commodityassetbubble,stockindexProactiveStructuralDynamicSimulationofCauses,onset,recoveryofChina/GlobalMortgage,credit,financial,currencyenergybanking,bubbleburstcrisisandNPLloan,creditriskmechanismExcessivemoneysupplyandhotmoneyinflowresultedsoaringinflation,ratehikes,tradedeficitandcurrencyplunge,ratehikeandstocks,propertiespricesplungeandNPLloan

PredictedSept2007onWallStreetMarketBeatthatFedratecutscannotstophousingpriceslump,creditcrisisandrecession2008StrongExportgrowth

ExcessforeigncapitalInflow,currencyappreciationExportdecline,

soaringtradedeficitandcurrencyplungeRunawayinflationandinterestratehikeStockpricesandconsumerdemandplungeExcessmoneysupplyConsumerspendingNPLMortgageDefaultProactiveStructuralstrategicChina/GlobalprojectfinancingriskmanagementearlywarningTwo

masterhandscontrollingChinaandglobaleconomyandindustrialsectors,corporateprofitabilityandstockpricesforfinancemanagersassetallocation,wealthmanagementinvestmentstrategy,riskcontrolavoidchasingthemarketstrilliondollarslossMoneysupply,interestratesCurrencyexchangeratesInvestorssentimentsOil,gas,LNG/downstreamassetpricesbubble,profitmarginsimulationDomesticandglobalmarketpricesAndriskssimulationConclusionsandrecommendationsOSAProactiveStructuralChina/globalcapitalmarketfundamentalsmechanismsimulatorspredicted6monthaheadthemonetary,economic,fiscalpolicyimpactonmacro-economic,capitalmarketassetpricestoachievesustainableprofitgrowthsystemicandspecificrisks,earlywarningsupportingstrategicChinabanking,finance,enterprises,capitalmarketreforminnovationWhichavoidedtrilliondollarmarketlossduetocurrentbettingonthewrongsideofinvestment,chasingthemarkets,speculationontechnicalcharts,market,business,economicdata.

ItprovideQFII,QDIIrational,reliabledecisioninvestmentandriskmanagementdecisiontoolsinasstallocation,wealthmanagementThousandstrategicstructuraldynamicOSAmodelstrackingChinaandglobaleconomicanddailycapitalmarketassetpricessupportingChinaandglobalcapitalmarketdecisionmakersthroughin-houseworkshops,corporatemembershipsandfullbanking,finance,enterprisesreform,changemanagementOSAprogramConclusionsandRecommendationProactiveOSAsimulatorspredictedyearsto6monthaheadthemonetary,economic,fiscalpolicy,impactonmacro-economiccontrol,capitalmarketassetinterestrate,currency,oil,gas,downstreamdemand,pricestoachievesustainableprofitgrowthandpricesstabilityMonetary,economic,fiscalpolicy,WTOimpactonChinacapitalmarketsassetpricessimulationprovideearlywarningtofutureoil,gasLNG,upstream/downstreamprojectfinancingmarket,credit