世界銀行-不丹勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)評(píng)估報(bào)告（英）-2024

BhutanLabor

MarketAssessmentReportJumana

Alaref,

Laurine

Martinoty,

Mariana

Viollaz,Esther

Bartl,

Phillippe

Leite,

and

Alvin

Etang

Ndip?

2024The

World

Bank1818

H

Street

NW,

Washington,

DC

20433,USA.Telephone:

202-473-1000;Internet:

.Some

rights

reserved

—

Thisworkisa

product

ofthestaffof

The

World

Bankwithexternalcontributions.TheWorld

Bankdoes

not

guaranteethe

accuracy

ofthe

data

includedinthiswork.The

boundaries,

colors,denomina-tions,and

otherinformationshown

onanymapinthisworkdonotimply

anyjudgmentonthe

partofThe

WorldBank

concerningthelegalstatus

ofanyterritory

or

the

endorsementor

acceptance

ofsuchboundaries.

Nothinghereinshallconstitute

orbe

construed

orconsideredto

be

a

limitation

upon

orwaiver

of

the

privilegesandimmu-nitiesof

The

World

Bank,

all

ofwhicharespeci?cally

reserved.Rights

and

Permissions

—

Thisworkisavailable

undertheCreativeCommons

Attribution

3.0

IGO

license(CC

BY

3.0IGO)/licenses/by/3.0/igo.Under

the

Creative

CommonsAttributionlicense,

youarefreeto

copy,

distribute,transmit,andadaptthiswork,includingfor

commercial

purposes,

under

thefollowingconditions:Attribution

—

Pleasecitetheworkas

follows:Jumana

Alaref,Laurine

Martinoty,

MarianaViollaz,Esther

Bartl,Phillippe

Leite,and

AlvinEtang

Ndip.

2024.“BhutanLabor

MarketAssessment

Report.”

World

Bank,Washington,DC.

License:CreativeCommonsAttribution

CC

BY

3.0

IGO.Translations

—

Ifyoucreatea

translation

ofthis

work,

please

addthe

followingdisclaimer

alongwiththeattri-bution:

Thistranslation

was

not

createdbyTheWorld

Bank

andshould

notbe

consideredan

of?cialWorld

Banktranslation.

Theorganizations

shallnot

be

liableforanycontentorerrorinthistranslation.Adaptations

—

Ifyoucreateanadaptationof

this

work,please

add

thefollowingdisclaimer

alongwith

theattribu-tion:

Thisis

an

adaptationof

anoriginalworkby

The

World

Bank.Viewsandopinionsexpressed

inthe

adaptationare

the

soleresponsibilityoftheauthoror

authorsof

theadaptation

andarenot

endorsedbyTheWorld

Bank.Third?party

content—TheWorld

Bank

does

not

necessarily

owneach

component

ofthecontentcontainedwithinthecwork.

The

World

Bankthereforedoes

not

warrant

that

the

useofany

third-party-ownedindividualcomponentorpartcontained

in

the

workwillnotinfringe

on

therights

of

thosethirdparties.Theriskof

claimsresultingfromsuch

infringementrests

solely

withyou.

Ifyou

wishtore-usea

component

ofthework,

it

is

yourresponsibilityto

determinewhetherpermission

isneededfor

thatre-useandto

obtain

permission

fromthecopyright

owner.Examplesof

components

can

include,

but

are

notlimitedto,

tables,?gures,or

images.Allqueriesandrightsandlicensesshouldbe

addressedto

World

Bank

Publications,TheWorld

Bank,1818

H

StreetNW,

Washington,

DC

20433,USA;

e-mail:pubrights@ContentsAcknowledgmentsAbout

the

Authors

and

ContributorsAbbreviationsviiviiixExecutive

Summary1

Overview15Introduction......................................................................................51.1Objectivesofthereport.........................................................................

111.2Structureofthereport

.........................................................................

112

Profile

and

Challenges

Facing

Workers

in

Bhutan13Introduction.....................................................................................132.1Evolutionofthelabormarketoverthelast10years

................................................

132.2Laborforceparticipationratesformenandwomenalongthelifecycle

..............................

212.3Unemploymentamongyouthandeducatedworkersin2022

.......................................272.4Currentstateofemployment

..................................................................

302.5Qualityofemployment:Hoursworked,wages,informality,andajobqualityindex.

..................

352.6Internalmobility

.............................................................................

44Summary

......................................................................................

463

Firm

Dynamics

in

Bhutan

and

Its

Alignment

with

Labor

Supply48Introduction....................................................................................

483.1Pro?leof?rmsinBhutan.

.....................................................................

483.2Labordemandprospects.

.....................................................................

543.3Barriersto?rmgrowthandbusinessmanagementpractices

.......................................67Summary

.......................................................................................704

Bhutan’s

Employment

Support

Programs

and

Delivery

System73Introduction.....................................................................................734.1ObjectivesofemploymentsupportprogramsandtheirrationaleforBhutan.

.........................734.2Bhutan’s

employmentsupportprogramsanddeliverysystem.......................................764.3Conclusion:Ways

tostrengthenemploymentsupportprogramsinBhutanandinternationalbestpractices

...................................................................................

85iii5

Policy

DirectionsAppendixes9298ADataSources

..................................................................................

98BSupplementaryFiguresandTables,

Chapter2.....................................................

99CPublic-PrivateWage

DifferentialsinBhutan.......................................................143DSupplementaryFiguresandTables,

Chapter3.

....................................................148EOverviewofSelectedALMPs

....................................................................162FSupplementaryTables,

Chapter4

................................................................164ReferencesBoxes1662.1Blinder-Oaxacadecompositionmethodology....................................................

402.2Job

qualityindex—dimensionsandmethodology

.................................................

444.1Objectivesofactivelabormarketprograms

.......................................................754.212thFive-Year

Plan(2018–23)....................................................................784.3TheTVETsysteminBhutan.....................................................................814.4GlobalevidencefromLatinAmerica’s

Jovénesprograms

..........................................

864.5TheRepublicofKorea’s

TVETsystem

............................................................874.6Bangladesh’smicro?nancesystem..............................................................

884.7GreenJobs

..................................................................................

894.8Documentingglobalbestpracticesinlaborinterventions

..........................................91Figures1.1ImpactofhydropoweronGDP,

1985–2021..........................................................61.2Povertyrate(US$3.65/day),2017and2022

.........................................................61.3HumanDevelopmentIndex,2010–21..............................................................71.4ContributionsofTFP,

capital,andlabortoeconomicgrowth,2001–19

.................................71.5MonthlymigrationthroughParo

InternationalAirport,2015–22.

....................................

81.6World

Bank’sHumanCapitalIndex,Bhutanandselectedcountries

..................................

81.7Educationandmaternalandchildhealthincomes,BhutanandLMICs

...............................101.8Populationpyramid,Bhutan

....................................................................

112.1Working-agepopulationandratioofindividualsages15–64todependentsunder15andabove64,2013–22

......................................................................................142.2Educationleveloftheworking-agepopulation,1950–99

...........................................

152.3Laborforceparticipation(LFP)rate,bygenderandlocation,2013–22

................................

162.4Laborforceparticipation(LFP)rate,bygenderandeducation,2013–22

..............................172.5Employmentrates,overallandbygender,2013–22

................................................182.6Employmentrates,bylocation,2013–22.

.........................................................

19iv2.7Unemploymentrate,overallandbygender,2013–22

..............................................

202.8Unemploymentrate,overallandbylocation,2013–22..............................................

212.9Laborforceparticipationrate,bygenderandlifecycle,2013—22

...................................

222.10Laborforceparticipationrate,bygender,location,andlifecycle,2022.............................

222.11Laborforceparticipationrateofprime-ageindividuals(25–54),bygender,location,andeducation,2022

.............................................................................

232.12Laborforceparticipationrate,bygender,location,andmaritalstatus,2022

........................

242.13Motivesforinactivity,bygenderandagegroup,2022

............................................

242.14Female

laborforceparticipation,bypresenceofchildren,2022

...................................

252.15Female

laborforceparticipation,bygenderanddependenthouseholdmembers,2022

..............

252.16Reasonsforbeingnotineducation,employment,ortraining(NEET),bygender(ages15–24),2022

....

262.17Unemploymentrate,overallandbyage,education,location,andgender,2022.......................272.18Unemploymentduration,2021

................................................................

282.19Self-reportedreasonforunemployment,youthandnonyouth,2021.

..............................

282.20Sectorpreferenceofjob-seekers,byagegroup,2021.

............................................

292.21Reasonsforsectorpreference,byagegroupandsector,2021.

.....................................

292.22Averagerealmonthlywageandreservationwage,byeducationandage,2022

......................

302.23Employmentrate,overallandbyage,education,location,andgender,2022.........................312.24Structureofemployment,2022...............................................................

332.25Shareofindustriesintotalemploymentanditsevolution,2013–22

................................

342.26Relativeemploymentgrowthandproductivity,2013–21

..........................................

352.27Numberofhoursworkedandstandarddeviations,bydemographiccharacteristics,economicsector,employmenttype,andgender,2022..........................................................372.28Averagemonthlyandhourlywages,overall,andbyeducation,gender,andarea,2022.

..............

382.29Distributionoftotalemploymenttypes,bylocation,2022

.........................................

412.30Weekly

workinghoursandrealhourlywagesofemployeesincompanies,businesses,ornongovernmentalorganizations,byformalitystatus,2017

............................................

422.31Formal

andinformaljobsandattachedbene?ts,2017

............................................

432.32Job

qualityindex,bylocationandgender,2018–22

..............................................

442.33ReasonformovingreportedbyBhutan-bornworking-ageindividuals,2019.

.......................

452.34CurrentlabormarketstatusofBhutan-bornworking-agemigrants,2019

..........................

463.1Pro?leof?rmsbyeconomicsector,region,size,andemploymentshare,2018and2022.

..............

503.2Averagenumberofworkershiredandexiting?rms,2019–21

.......................................

513.3Net

jobcreation,byyearandregion,2019–22

.....................................................

513.4Net

jobcreation,byyearandeconomicsector,2019–21.

...........................................

523.5Laborproductivityandnetjobcreationratein2021

..............................................

533.6Distributionofcurrentemploymentandexpectedlabordemand,byoccupation,2022

...............

563.7Expectedlabordemandforservicesandsalesworkersandcraftandrelatedtradesworkers,byeducation,2022

...............................................................................573.8Comparisonoftheexpectedlabordemandandthecurrentlaborforceandinactivepopulation,byeducation,2022

..............................................................................

583.9Percentageof?rmsreportinghiringdif?culties,byreason,2022.

..................................

59v3.10Percentageof?rmsfacingworkershortages,byoccupationandeducationlevel,2022

................613.11Ratioofnumberofjob-seekerstonumberofworkers,byeducationandregion,2022

................

623.12Distributionofforeignworkers,byoccupation,2022

............................................

643.13Employees’perceptionsoftheirdigitalandinformationtechnologyskills,2022

.....................

663.14Majorconstraintstogrowth,by?rmsize,2022

..................................................

683.15Correlationsbetweensalaryincrement/employeepromotionsystemsandhiringdif?culties,workershortages.andretentionchallengesacrosseconomicsectors,2022

..............................714.1PillarsoftheemploymentdeliverysysteminBhutan.

..............................................764.2Total

numberofTVETgraduates,byyearandgender,2018–22

.....................................

824.3ShareofTTI

graduates,bygender,2018–22

......................................................

82TablesES.1Policydirectionstoaddresschallengesinthelabormarket

........................................

43.1Distributionofexpectedvacanciesoverthenextoneortwoyears,byoccupation,2022

................553.2Percentageof?rmsfacinghiringdif?culties,2022

...............................................

593.3Types

ofhiringdif?culties,byoccupation,2022

..................................................

603.4Impactsofworkershortageson?rmperformance,2022

..........................................

633.5Levelofconnectionwithpotentialpartnersforprovidingtraining,2022

............................

643.6Trainingneedsforthenext?veyears,2022.

.....................................................

653.7Trainingcriticalforthecurrentoccupationandfundingplansaccordingtoemployees,2022

..........

653.8Importanceoffactorsforbusinessexpansionordiversi?cationplans,2022

..........................673.9Constraintsinthemanagementof?rms,2022

...................................................

683.10Compliancewithlaborregulations,by?rmsize,2022

...........................................

694.1OverviewofselectedALMPs

....................................................................794.2NumberofregulargraduatesinTTIs

andIZCs,

byyearandgender

.................................

825.1Mappingofpolicydirectionsaccordingtofourbroadlabormarketchallenges

.......................

96viAcknowledgmentsThis

WorldBank

report

was

prepared

by

a

team

led

by

Jumana

Alaref.

Chapter

authors

are

Jumana

Alaref,

LaurineMartinoty,

Mariana

Viollaz,

and

Esther

Bartl.

Alvin

Etang

Ndip

and

Phillippe

Leite

served

as

core

members

of

theteam

and

contributors

to

various

chapters.

Nazia

Moqueet

provided

research

assistance

and

support

through-out

the

study,

and

Elfreda

Vincent,

So?a

Said,

Dorji

Drakpa,

and

Tshering

Yangki

offered

administrative

support.SabraLedenteditedthereport,andSeanWillmottservedasitsgraphicdesigner.TheteamwouldliketothankthefollowingWorld

Bankcolleaguesfortheirhelp.AbdoulayeSeck,NicoleKlingen,Stefano

Paternostro,Cem

Mete,

S.

Amer

Ahmed,

and

Adama

Coulibaly

provided

feedback,

guidance,

and

supportfrom

management.

Suhail

Kassem,

Melanie

Simone

Trost,

and

Mauro

Testaverde

served

as

peer

reviewers

at

thedecision

review

stage

of

the

report.

Ashiq

Aziz,

Sonam

Choden

Wangdi,

and

Joachim

Vandercasteelen

providedinput,feedback,andsupportatvariouspointsduringpreparationofthereport.The

team

is

also

grateful

to

the

external

stakeholders

who

offered

feedback

and

assistance

at

different

pointsduring

the

report

preparation

process.

From

the

Royal

Government

of

Bhutan

were

Duptho

Wangmo,

TenzinChoden,

and

Ugyen

Namgyel

from

the

Ministry

of

Education

and

Skills

Development

(MoESD),

and

Dasho

TashiWangmo,DirectorGeneralKunzangLhamo,DilMayaSubba,JamyangTshomo,JigmeThinley,RidgenWangchuk,andTsheringYangki

fromtheMinistryofIndustry,Commerce,andEmployment(MoICE).The

report

bene?ted

from

the

generous

funding

of

the

WorldBank’sRapid

Social

Response

Program

(RSR),

whichisgratefullyacknowledged.The

team

apologizes

to

any

individuals

or

organizations

inadvertently

omitted

from

this

list.

It

is

grateful

to

all

whoprovidedguidanceandassistanceforthisreport.viiAbout

the

Authors

andContributorsJumana

Alaref

is

a

senior

economist

in

the

Social

Protection

and

JobsGlobal

Practice

at

the

WorldBank.

Herworkfocuses

on

strengthening

social

safety

nets,

improving

female

employment,

investing

in

active

labor

market

pro-grams,

and

overall

system

strengthening.

In

South

Asia,

she

has

directed

her

efforts

toward

helping

countries

tobuildadeliverysystemforemploymentsupportservices,aswellastoenhancetheiranalyticalandinformationalcapacity

through

the

establishment

of

labor

market

information

systems.

She

has

also

contributed

to

the

develop-ment

of

national

labor

market

strategies

in

both

Saudi

Arabia

and

Kuwait.

And

she

has

co-led

impact

evaluationson

labor

market

programs

in

Lebanon

and

Tunisia.

She

holds

a

master’s

degree

in

public

policy

from

the

Univer-sityofChicago.Laurine

Martinoty

has

served

as

an

assistant

professor

at

Université

Paris

1

Panthéon

Sorbonne

since

September2016.

She

is

a

member

of

the

research

group

on

international

economics

and

labor

markets

within

the

Centred’Economie

de

la

Sorbonne.

She

has

been

focusing

on

household

responses

to

shocks

in

labor

demand

in

econo-mies

at

all

income

levels.

She

currently

works

on

family

formation

and

labor

market

opportunities

in

Europe,

withanemphasisontheroleofeconomicshocksandgenderattitudes.SheisaconsultantattheWorld

Bank.Mariana

Viollaz

is

a

senior

researcher

at

the

Center

for

Distributive,

Labor

and

Social

Studies

(CEDLAS)

of

theUniversidad

Nacional

de

La

Plata

(UNLP)

in

Argentina.

She

has

a

PhD

in

economics

from

UNLP

and

has

been

apostdoctoral

fellow

at

the

School

of

Industrial

and

Labor

Relations

at

Cornell

University.

Her

research

focuses

ongender

and

labor

economics

in

developing

countries.

She

is

a

consultant

at

the

World

Bank

and

the

Inter-Ameri-canDevelopmentBank.Esther

M.

Bartl

is

a

PhD

student

in

development

economics

at

the

University

of

Sussex,

UK,

and

a

consultant

at

theWorld

Bank.

Her

research

focuses

on

labor

markets

and

international

labor

migration

in

low-

and

middle-incomecountries,inparticularSouthAsiaandCentralAsia.Sheholdsamaster’s

degreeininternationaleconomicsfromSAIS,Johns

HopkinsUniversity.Phillippe

Leite

is

a

senior

social

protection

economist

in

the

South

Asia

unit

of

the

Social

Protection

and

JobsGlobal

Practice

at

the

World

Ban