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EQUITYRESEARCH|July11,2024|4:56PMCST
ChinaCleanTechnology:Solar
Industryre-shapinginfocus,supplyre-balancinglikelyinthenext12months
WebelievetheChinasolarindustryislikelyheadingintothefinalstageofthecurrentdownturnaftera
massivecapacityexpansionin2023/1H24and50%-90%ASPdeclinesfrompeakacrossthemainvaluechain.Chinasolarmainvaluechainhasturnedwidelylossmaking,andweexpecttheindustrytorecorda
cashoperatinglossofRmb131bnin2024Eanda46%/34%yoycapexdeclinein2024E/2025E.OurillustrativestresstestscenarioanalysissuggeststhatforsomeTier1players,FCFburnmaynotbelongerthan8-10
months;whilenonTier-1playerscouldfaceelevatedliquiditypressuregivenmuchfewerprofitsaccumulatedduring2021-2023.
Moreover,wehavestartedtoseeearlysignsofencouragingpolicystancetocurbnewcapacityandpredatorypricing,whichinourview,shouldbodewellforacceleratedindustryconsolidationtowardsleaderswithstrongB/S,R&Dandcostadvantage.Onsupplyre-balancing,weexpecttheendofacyclicalbottomby2025Eand
_
ASPtostabilizein2025Ewith5-10%yoyreboundsupportedbystillsoliddemandoutlook.Webelievethenext12monthswouldbethemostinterestingtimetozoomintothesolarsectortolookforlongrunwinners.
Inourcompanionnote,weinitiateon13stocksacrossthesolarvaluechain:wepreferinverters(Buyon
Sungrow)andmaterials(BuyonFlatH/XinyiandHZFirst).Withinthemainvaluechain,wepreferstrongerBalancesheets:Daqo(BuyonADR/NeutralonA)/Longi(Neutral)vs.GCL(Neutral)/TongweiandTCL
Zhonghuan(bothSell-rated).Forequipment,weareSellratedonMaxwellandNeutralonSZS.C.
Inthisreport,weprovidemoredetailson1)oversupplyassessment;2)howthisdowncycleisdifferent;3)
whattolookforinthenext12months;and4)ourvaluationframework.
JacquelineDu+86212401-8948
jacqueline.du@GoldmanSachs(China)SecuritiesCompanyLimited
MengwenWang+86212401-8932
mengwen.wang@GoldmanSachs(China)SecuritiesCompanyLimited
ZhihanYe
+86212411-8029
zhihan.ye@
GoldmanSachs(China)SecuritiesCompanyLimited
GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthe?rmmayhaveacon?ictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcerti?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto
/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaf?liatesarenotregistered/quali?edasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.
TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.
GoldmanSachsChinaCleanTechnology:Solar
TableofContents
PMSummary4
Enteringaperiodofindustryre-shapingwitha40%-100%oversupplyacrossthemainvaluechain10
Notapolicy/demandshockthistime15
Expectendofacyclicalbottomby2025E20
Stockview:Preferstrongbalancesheetsanddownstream28
Appendix:Celltechproduction?owandkeyplayers34
Appendix:Keyriskssummary35
DisclosureAppendix36
_
11July20242
GoldmanSachsChinaCleanTechnology:Solar
Exhibit1:Industryre-shapinginfocus:weforecast46%/34%yoyindustrycapexdeclinein2024E/2025E,andASPtostabilizein2025Ewith5%-10%yoyrebound
_
Source:CPIA,PVInfolink,SiliconChina,Oilchem,Wind,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
11July20243
GoldmanSachsChinaCleanTechnology:Solar
PMSummary
Enteringaperiodofindustryre-shapingwitha40%-100%oversupplyacrossthe
mainvaluechain:WebelieveChinasolarindustryisheadingintothe?nalstageofa
downturncycle,orare-shapingperiodafter1X-2Xcapacityexpansionin2023-early
2024and50%-90%ASPdeclinesfrompeakacrossthemainvaluechainlikelyleading
tooperatinglossforalmostalltheindustryplayersfrom2Q24basedonourestimate.
Assolarindustryisdigestinga40%-100%oversupplyacrossthemainvaluechainper
ourestimateswithupstreampolyhavingthehighestoversupply,weexpecttheindustrytorecordanoperatinglossofRmb131bnin2024E,withourcoveragecompanies’
earningsforecastssubstantiallybelowcurrentWindconsensusestimates.
Notapolicy/demandshockthistime,stillexpect+12%addressabledemand
growthinto2024E:UnlikepreviousdownturnsthatweretriggeredbydemandshockasaresultofEUtariffhikein2012and“5/31”policyinChinaduring2018thatreducedthelevelofsubsidyforsolarfarmsanddistributedsolar,weexpectChinasolarmodule
installations/Chinaplayer’saddressablemoduledemandtoreach241GW/519GWin
2024E(+12%yoyforboth),amoderationafteradrasticincreaseof+147%/70%yoyin2023.Weestimatea15%/14%CAGRover2024-30Eonthebackofrisingcost
competitivenessandlowpenetrationinChinaandglobally.Webelievethebiggest
incrementalcontributionwillstilllikelycomefromChinaduetolowerLCOE(levelizedcostofelectricity)(Exhibit21),especiallyfromcommercial&industrialdemand,
followedbyutility-scaleprojects.ForChinasolarplayers,weexpecttheiraggregate
ex-ChinamarketsharetoremainstableonrisingEMdemandoffsettingDMself-suf?ciencyheadwinds.
Durationandpathofthisdownturnlikelyindebate;weexpecttheendofa
cyclicalbottomby2025E:TheunprecedentedoversupplyinthecurrentdownturnhasledtosharperASPdeclinesoveramuchshorterperiodthanpastdownturns.Our
_
illustrativestresstestscenarioanalysissuggeststhatevenforsomeTier1playersinourcoverage,2023cashinhandwouldonlysupportFCFburnfor8-10monthsassumingnoextensiontoexistingdebtoraccesstonewborrowingandnoimprovementinASPs
fromcurrentlevels.Wenotenon-Tier1companiessawfastercashburnnottomentionmuchfewerpro?tsaccumulatedduring2021-2023.Inthemeantime,solartechnologyisevolvingfasterthanever,thuspressinggreaterpressureonoutdatedcapacityintermsofbothmarginsandmarketaccess.Moreover,wehavestartedtoseeearlysignsof
encouragingpolicystancetocurbnewcapacityandpredatorypricing,whichinourview,shouldbodewellforacceleratedindustryconsolidationtowardsleaderswith
strongB/S,R&Dandcostadvantage.Onsupplyre-balancing,weexpecttheendofacyclicalbottomby2025EandASPtostabilizein2025Ewith5-10%yoyrebound
supportedbystillsoliddemandoutlook.
Keymovingfactors/riskstowatchinthenext12months:
nSS/DDdynamicshift:anymeaningfulsupplyre-balanceincludinglarge-scale
productionshutdownsdrivenbyeitherFCFburnorgovernmentpolicies(notinourbasecase).
11July20244
GoldmanSachsChinaCleanTechnology:Solar
nBanks’lendingpolicy:anyextensionorwithdrawalofexistingloansbybankscouldimpactindustrycapacity.Whileinourbasecase,weexpectextensionoffundingtocontinueforTier1players,wenoteanysigni?cantbankloanwithdrawalcouldbe
operationallydamagingforsomecompaniesbutitcouldhelpwithafastersupplycut.
nUSTariff:anypotentialUSAnti-dumpingandCountervailingdutyhikesonChina
players’SEAcapacityisariskfactorforChinasolarplayers.WhilewedonottakeaviewonthependingAD/CVDdecisiononASEANproducedmodulesandanytariff
changesgoingforward,oursensitivityanalysissuggestsevery5%tariffincrease
canimpactpro?tsby5%forexportstotheUSfromASEAN,assumingnocostpassthroughandallelseequal.WeexpectUStocontribute7%ofglobalsolarinstallationin2024E-2026E.
nBreakthroughinnewcelltech:althoughthepaceofthenewcelltech-ledindustrycapacityupgradeisexpectedtobeslowinthenearterm,it’skeytomonitorleadingplayers’cost&performanceprogresssuchasTongwei’supcomingGWlevelHJT
pilotproductionandLongi’sN-typeBCvs.TOPCON(de-factotech).Perovskite(Exhibit39),inourview,willlikelybequitedistantaway.
Whattodowiththestocks:
nCashisking:Webelievebalancesheetisthemostimportantfactortoconsider
whennearingtheendofacyclicalbottom.WebelieveourcoveredTier1playersaremuchbetterpositionedthanSuntech/LDK/Yingliwereduringthe2012downturn
giventheirmoreoptimizedbalancesheetswithlowerleverage,lackofforeignbondexposureandlongerdebtmaturityyears.However,anymajoroperating/?nancing
issuesduringthecurrentchallengingperiodcouldposesigni?cantrisksonthe
?nancial.Acrosssolar’smainvaluechain,wepreferDaqo(BuyonADR/Neutralon
A)/Longi(Neutral)vs.GCL(Neutral)/TongweiandTCLZhonghuan(bothSell-rated);
_
nPreferdownstream:Weexpectrelativelymodest15%/10%/18%ASPdeclinein
2024Eforinverter/glass/?lmvs.~50%formainvaluechain(Exhibit7)duetobettersupply&demanddynamics(Exhibit17,Exhibit18).BuySungrow(ridingon
overseastailwindwithstrongutility-scaleprojectpipeline),FlatH/Xinyi(bufferfromsodaash/LNGcosttailwind)andHZFirst(bene?tfromN-typesolartechshift);
nAvoidsolarcellequipment:Weproject46%/34%solarcapexdeclinein
2024E-2025Ewithinventory/accountreceivableimpairmentriskonthebackofliquiditypressurefromdownstreamcustomers.SellMaxwell(near-termHJTprogresspricedin)andNeutralonSZS.C.
nOurvaluationframework:(i)Forsolarupstream,weadoptend-2024P/Basourprimaryvaluationmethodology,aswe?ndbalancesheetstrengthwasthemostimportantsharepricedriverduringthe2012downcycle.Forcompanieswith
relativelyweakB/S,weapply0.7-1.1X2024EP/B.ForcompanieswithrelativelystrongB/S,weusethemid-pointof-1STDandtheaveragehistoricalP/Bor0%discountto1XP/B;(ii)Formid/downstream,weapplydiscountedmid-cycle
11July20245
GoldmanSachsChinaCleanTechnology:Solar
EV/EBITDAaswevaluethembasedonsustainablethrough-cyclegrowth.
nRisks:(+)Higher-than-expecteddistributedsolardemandunlockedbycheapmodulepriceinoverseasemergingmarketswithpowershortage;(+/-)fasterorslowerthanexpectedsupplycut;(-)Banks’lendingpolicytightening;(-)PotentialUSAD/CVD
tariffhikeonChinaplayers’SEAcapacity;(+)Breakthroughinnewcelltech.
Exhibit2:2024Esolarindustrydownturnwillbemorecomparableto2012than2018inourviewandweforecastRmb131bnindustryoperatinglossin2024E
SolarindustryaverageandTier1players’cashGPMbysub-sector,2011-2030E
Note:Wede?neTier1playersbymarketshare:1)GCLTech,Tongwei,DaqoinPoly,2)Longi,TZE,Jinko,JASolarinWafer,3)Longi,Tongwei,Jinko,JASolar,TrinaSolarinCelland4)Longi,JASolar,Jinko,TrinaSolarinmodule
Source:CPIA,PVInfolink,SiliconChina,Oilchem,Wind,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
_
Exhibit3:Weestimatea40%-100%oversupplyacrossthemainvaluechainwithupstreamPolyhavingthehighestoversupply...
Exhibit4:...whileglobalinstallationwillstillgrowby15%p.a.till2030EwithbiggestdemandcontributionstillfromChina
Attributionofincrementalsolarinstallationfrom2023to2030Ebycountryandbytype
Source:CPIA,PVInfolink,SiliconChina,Oilchem,Wind,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Source:CPIA,IEA,Wind,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
11July20246
GoldmanSachsChinaCleanTechnology:Solar
Exhibit5:Webelievethesolarindustryislikelyheadingintothe?nalstageofadownturncycle,orthere-shapingperiod...
_
Source:CPIA,PVInfolink,SiliconChina,Oilchem,Wind,UnitedStatesInternationalTradeCommission,UnitedStatesDepartmentofCommerce,SNEC,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
11July20247
GoldmanSachsChinaCleanTechnology:Solar
Exhibit6:...andseesigni?cantsharepriceappreciationopportunitiesforsurvivalsoncepolypricestabilizesbutwearenotthereyet
Pastsharepriceperformanceacrosscycles
Note:In-operationplayersincludeLongiA,JinkoUS,CSIQUS;InsolventplayersincludeSuntechUS,YingyiUS,andLDKSolarUSSource:Companydata,ThomsonReuters,Wind,OilchemChina,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Exhibit7:Wepreferinverter/glass/?lmvs.solarmaincomponent(poly&waferleastfavored)andcellequipment
SummaryofourASP/capexestimates
_
Source:CPIA,PVInfolink,SiliconChina,Oilchem,Wind,Bloomberg,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
11July20248
GoldmanSachsChinaCleanTechnology:Solar
Exhibit8:WeapplydiscounttobookvalueforGCL,TZEandTongwei’ssolarbusinessonweakerB/Sthanpeers
FCFburnmonthsunderourstresstestscenariovsourtarget2024EP/Bforsolarmaincomponentplayers
Exhibit9:TPimplied2024EP/Bvs.2027EROE
DaqoreferstoDaqoA(688303.SS)
Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Source:WIND,ThomsonReuters,companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Exhibit10:Weinitiate13stocksalongthesolarvaluechain,preferstrongbalancesheetsanddownstream
ChinaCleanTech-Solarsectorcompsheet
_
AsofJuly4,2024closing,*denotesontheAmericasConvictionListSource:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
11July20249
GoldmanSachsChinaCleanTechnology:Solar
Enteringaperiodofindustryre-shapingwitha40%-100%oversupplyacrossthemainvaluechain
Therewasamassivepricedeclineinthepast6monthsacrossthesolarvaluechain.Wenotethemainstreamproductpoly/waferpricehascomedowntobelowTier-1cashcostlevelsinceApril,andcell/modulepricehasreachedthecashcostline.
OverallpolypricecontinuedtofollowadownwardtrendandfellbelowTier-1cashcostlevelinthebeginningofQ2,drivenbynewsupplyandweakerdemandduetolower
waferutilization.PerSiliconChina’slatestdata,priceforTypeN/ProdsiliconpolyandTypeNgranularpolyhasdeclinedtonewlowsatRmb40/34.3/36.5perkgasof
7/4/2024,respectively,-41%/-41%/-38%ytdand-76%/-86%/-89%versuslastpeaklevelinMay/Feb/Jan-23duetodataavailability.
WeseeoverallwaferpricefollowedasimilardownwardtrendandfellbelowTier-1cashcostlevelinthebeginningofQ2.Althoughdemandfrominstallationremainedrobustandcapacityclosuresareslowsofar.ThelatestdatafromSiliconChinashowsthatthe
M10TypeP/NsolarwaferdecreasedtoRmb1.23/1.12perPCasof7/4/2024,respectively,-36%/-49%ytdand-63%/-68%versuslastpeakinSep-23.
TheoverallcellpricefollowedthedownwardtrendandapproachedtheTier-1cashcostlevelinearlyQ2,drivenbyovercapacitytomeetthecurrentmarketdemandinthenearterm.ThelatestdatafromPVInfolinkshowsthepriceforPERC182mm/210mmand
TopconcellisRmb0.3/0.3/0.3perW,asof7/4/2024,respectively,-21%/-25%/-36%ytdand-60%/-59%/-63%versuslastpeakinSep-23.
ModulehadarelativelysmoothdownwardtrendbutalsofellbelowTier-1cashcostin
_
thebeginningofthisQ2,duetooversupplyandlowerorderacceptancerate.ThelatestdatafromPVInfolinkshowsthatthepriceofPERC182mm/Topcon182mm/HJT210mmdecreasedtoRmb0.8/0.85/1.05perWasof7/4/2024,respectively,and-17%/-17%/-18%ytd,-51%/-51%/-43%versuslastpeakinJune2023.
Exhibit11:N-typepolypricehasdroppedbymorethan70%vs.
2023peak
Mono-polysiliconpricetrend
Exhibit12:N-typeM10waferpricehasdroppedbymorethan60%frompriorpeak
Waferpricetrend...
Source:PVInfolink,SiliconChina,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:PVInfolink,SiliconChina,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
11July202410
GoldmanSachsChinaCleanTechnology:Solar
Exhibit13:...similarforTopconcell
TopconCellpricetrend
Exhibit14:...andTopconbifacialmodule
TopconBifacialModulepricetrend
Source:PVInfolink,SiliconChina,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:PVInfolink,SiliconChina,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Exhibit15:Weestimateeffectivecapacityutilizationratetohitrecord-lowin2024ona40%-100%oversupplyacrossthemainvaluechainwithPolyhavingthehighestoversupply
_
Source:CPIA,PVInfolink,SiliconChina,Oilchem,Wind,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
11July202411
GoldmanSachsChinaCleanTechnology:Solar
Exhibit16:Weexpectsequentialcapexdeclinesintoupcomingquarters
OnlycapexestimatesaresourcedtoGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Source:CPIA,PVInfolink,SiliconChina,Oilchem,Wind,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
_
11July202412
GoldmanSachsChinaCleanTechnology:Solar
Exhibit17:Poly(mostsevereoversupply)andwafer(increasinglyintegrated)aretheleastfavorablelinksalongthemainvaluechain
S&Ddynamicandlandscapeforsolarcorevaluechain
Source:CPIA,PVInfolink,SiliconChina,Oilchem,Wind,Companydata,VisibleAlphaConsensusData,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
_
11July202413
GoldmanSachsChinaCleanTechnology:Solar
Exhibit18:Forotherpartofthesupplychain,wepreferinverter/glass/?lmvs.cellequipment
S&Ddynamicsandlandscapeforsolarinverter,PVmaterialsandcellequipment
Source:CPIA,PVInfolink,SiliconChina,Oilchem,Wind,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
_
11July202414
GoldmanSachsChinaCleanTechnology:Solar
Notapolicy/demandshockthistime
Weviewthesolarsectorasacost-drivenindustrywithpositivegrowthopportunitiesover2026-30EonthebackofrisingcostcompetitivenessandlowpenetrationinChinaandglobally.Weexpectbothglobal(+11%)andChina(+14%)industrytogeneratelow-teeninstallationCAGRin2026E-30EwithChinasolarmodule
installations/Chinaplayers’addressablemoduledemandreaching241GW/519GWin2024E(+12%yoyforboth),amoderationafterasigni?cantincreaseof+147%/70%yoyin2023.Withinthebroaderindustry,weexpectutility-scalesolarinstallationin
Chinatodeclineby5%yoyin2024Eduetoconstraintsofpowergridcapacitywhile
distributedsolartogrowby32%yoyespeciallyledbynon-residemand(dueto
improvedLCOEamidmodulespricedeclinesandgovernment’spushtoreduceenergyconsumption),andthena13%/17%CAGRforutility-scale/distributedsolarinstallationover2024-30E,reaching239GW/330GWin2030E.Webelieveglobalinstallationtill
2030EwilllikelyseethebiggestcontributionfromChina,especiallyfromcommercial&industrialdemand,followedbyutility-scaleprojects(Exhibit19).Recently,adomestic
policyfromNEAonhigh-qualitydevelopmentofnewenergyloweredthecurtailmentthresholdforsolar/windpowergenerationwhichhasbeen95%since2018,buttherecentgovernmentdocumenton2024-2025NationalEnergySavingand
DecarbonizationActionPlanindicatesareaswithdecentprojectpro?tabilityandnaturalresourcescanenjoylowercurtailmentthreshold(andhencehigherceilingforadditionalsolarinstallation)at>90%.
OurUSanalyst(BrianLee)forecastsglobalsolarnewinstallationtogrowat13%
CAGRin2023-2030E.Inparticular,BrianexpectstoseeAmericasandrestoftheworld
toleadthegrowth,whileamixedpictureinEurope.IntheUS,IRApoliciesare
supportingthemid-to-longertermdemandbyextensionoftaxcreditsandInvestmentTaxCredit(ITC)adders.Fortherestoftheworld,MiddleEastisaimingtoreduceoil
_
dependency;SouthAfricaisprovidingsolartaxincentivestodrivesolarinstallations.However,inEurope,somecountries(e.g.,.NetherlandsandItaly)alteredthepaceofrenewablesandPVadoptionasenergypricescamedowninEurope,whilepolicyinGermanystillremainsaccommodative.
11July202415
GoldmanSachsChinaCleanTechnology:Solar
Exhibit19:WeexpectChinasolarmoduleinstallations/addressablemoduledemandtoreach241GW/519GWin2024E,+12%yoy
Awalk-throughofourdemandforecastmodel
Addressabledemandsumsupdomesticdemandandoverseasdemand(Globalex-Chinademanddeductinglocalcapacity)Source:CPIA,IEA,Wind,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
WebelieveUSutility-scaleandChinautility-scalehavecomparableLCOE(levelizedcostofelectricity)asofend-2023,atc.USD30/MWh(basedonourestimates).However,USdistributedsolarstillhasthehighestLCOE,almost2-5timesthecostofdistributed
solarinChina,asontopofthepanelandinvertersCOGS,theinstallation,sales,
marketing,certi?cationcostsarerelativelyhighintheUS.Therefore,we?ndChina
distributedsolartoremainverycompetitive,andChinadistributedsolar(residentialandnon-residential)tocontributetomajorityoftheglob
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