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1、could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? since opec agreed to supply-cuts in march, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last d .could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? since opec agreed to supply-cuts in march,
2、the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last december. this near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-1980, when they also almost tripled. both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation
3、 and global economic decline. so where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?the oil price was given another push up this week when iraq suspended oil exports. strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still i
4、n the short term。yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. in most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. in europe, taxes account for up to four- fifths of the re
5、tail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past。rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the import
6、ance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. for each dollar of gdp (inconstant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. the oecd estimates in its latest eco
7、nomic outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of gdp. that is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. on the other hand, oil-importing emerging economie
8、s to which heavy industry has shifted have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed 。one more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and
9、global excess demand. a sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. the economist's commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. in 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70% and in 1979 by almost 30%。31. the main reason for the latest rise of oil price isa
10、global inflation.breduction in supply。cfast growth in economy. diraq's suspension of exports。32. it can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically ifaprice of crude rises. bcommodity prices rise。©consumption rises.doil taxes rise。33. the estimates in e
11、conomic outlook show that in rich countriesaheavy industry becomes more energy-intensive。bincome loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices。©manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed。doil price changes have no significant impact on gdp。34. we can draw a conclusion from the t
12、ext thataoil-price shocks are less shocking now。binflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks。cenergy conservation can keep down the oil prices。dthe price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry 。35. from the text we can see that the writer seemsaoptimistic. bsensitive. cgloomy.dsca
13、red 。名師解析31. the main reason for the latest rise of oil price is最近的油價(jià)上漲的主要原因是aglobal inflation.全球通貨膨脹。breduction in supply 。供應(yīng)量減少。cfast growth in economy.快速的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。diraq's suspension of exports.伊拉克暫時(shí)停止石油出口?!敬鸢浮縝【考點(diǎn)】事實(shí)細(xì)節(jié)題?!痉治觥扛鶕?jù)題干可以定位到第一段的第二句話“since opec agreed tosupply-cuts in march, the price of
14、crude oil has jumped to almost $26a barrel, up from less than $10 last december。” 說(shuō)明由于石油輸出國(guó)決定降低供給量使得油價(jià)上升。所以本題的答案是b。叫不是該現(xiàn)象的主要原因因?yàn)椤?opec的相關(guān)決定才是能夠影響石油價(jià)格的走勢(shì)的主要原因。32. it can be inferred from the text that the retail price ofpetrol will go up dramatically if從文中可以推斷出如果 汽油的零售價(jià)格將會(huì)劇烈上升。aprice of crude rises.原
15、油價(jià)格上升。bcommodity prices rise.日 用 品價(jià)格上升。©consumption rises.消費(fèi)上升。doil taxes rise.油稅上升。【答案】d【考點(diǎn)】推斷題?!痉治觥扛鶕?jù)題干可以定位到第三段的第三句話“in europe, taxesaccount for up to four-fifths of the retail priceso even quite bigchanges in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump pricesthan in the past 。.”意思是說(shuō)“
16、在歐洲稅占汽油的零售價(jià)的五分之四因此相比以往原油的價(jià)格變化對(duì)汽油的影響不會(huì)很明顯”。也就是說(shuō)稅的增加會(huì)導(dǎo)致汽油價(jià)格的猛漲而原油價(jià)格的變化帶來(lái)的影響不會(huì)很大。本題一個(gè)理解的難度是 "muted effect " 另夕卜個(gè)是 "pump price "。 "mute" 表示“啞巴的 無(wú)聲的沉默的”和“ effect ”連用 表示“影響不明顯”而“pump price ”是一個(gè)很形象的說(shuō)法"pump'指的是“泵”這里很形象用in economic“pump"指代"汽油”。根據(jù)上述分析可以得出答案是d。3
17、3. the estimatesoutlook show that in rich countries經(jīng)濟(jì)展望的評(píng)估表明在富國(guó)a heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive。重工業(yè)變得更加能源密集型。b income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices。收入損失主要由于波動(dòng)的原油價(jià)格造成。c manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed。制造業(yè)面臨嚴(yán)重影響。d oil price changes have no signi
18、ficant impact on gdp。油價(jià)變化對(duì)國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值沒有大的影響。【答案】d【考點(diǎn)】 推斷題?!痉治觥扛鶕?jù)本題的關(guān)鍵詞“經(jīng)濟(jì)展望的估計(jì)”可以定位到“theoecd estimates in its latest economic outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only0.25%-0.5% of gdp?!薄?/p>
19、也就是說(shuō)油價(jià)的上漲對(duì) gdp的影響很小 只有“0.25% 0.5%”。因此我們可以得出答案 d。從文中我們可以得出油價(jià)沖擊已經(jīng)不再那么駭通貨膨脹看起來(lái)能源儲(chǔ)備能夠34. we can draw a conclusion from the text that的結(jié)論是a oil-price shocks are less shocking now.人聽聞。b inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks.和油價(jià)沖擊無(wú)關(guān)。c energy conservation can keep down the oil prices. 使油價(jià)下降。d the pr
20、ice rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavyindustry 。原油價(jià)格的上升導(dǎo)致重工業(yè)的萎縮?!敬鸢浮?a【考點(diǎn)】文章主旨題?!痉治觥勘绢}的幾個(gè)選項(xiàng)需要通篇理解。文章第三段指出“油價(jià)的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響不會(huì)那么嚴(yán)重”作者指出其原因是“原油價(jià)格占汽油價(jià)格的比例不高發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家對(duì)石油的依賴減弱此次漲價(jià)的背景不一樣了” 。文章最后一段說(shuō)“這次油價(jià)上漲與20世紀(jì)70年代的上漲不同對(duì)各國(guó)的影響也基本沒有反映出來(lái)連物價(jià)基本都沒有變動(dòng)”也就是說(shuō)油價(jià)沖擊已經(jīng)不是那么可怕。所以答案是a。35. from the text we can see that the writ
21、er seems從本文中我們可以看出作者看上去是a optimistic.樂觀的。b sensitive。敏感的。c gloomy.沮喪的。d scared??謶值??!敬鸢浮縜【考點(diǎn)】作者態(tài)度題?!痉治觥勘疚淖髡咧饕v的就是這次油價(jià)上漲的影響不大。尤其是第三段和最后一段的第一句話強(qiáng)調(diào)人們不必?fù)?dān)心此次油價(jià)上漲因?yàn)檫@一次的情況與“20世紀(jì)70年代”不同。由此可見作者的態(tài)度是“樂觀的”。難句解析1. strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push t
22、he price higher still in the short time ?!窘Y(jié)構(gòu)分析】本句的主語(yǔ)是"strengthening economic growth ” 謂語(yǔ)是“could push ”插入成分是一個(gè)時(shí)間狀語(yǔ)其中有一個(gè)“ as”引導(dǎo)的定語(yǔ)從句修飾"time "。2. the oecd estimates in its latest economic outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase
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