通貨膨脹與失業(yè)理論

1、六、通貨膨脹與失業(yè)理論六、通貨膨脹與失業(yè)理論INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENTInflation: Its Causes and Costs通貨膨脹：nInflation is an increase in the overall price level. It is a continuous increase versus a once-and-for-all increase in prices. Inflation deals with the increase in the average of prices and not just significant incr

2、eases in the price of a few goods.The Causes of InflationnInflation is an economy-wide monetary phenomenon that concerns, first and foremost, the value of the economys medium of exchange.The Causes of InflationnTo understand the causes of inflation we must understand the concepts of money supply, mo

3、ney demand, and monetary equilibrium.nIn the long run, the overall level of prices adjusts to the level at which the demand for money equals the supply.Money Supply and Money DemandMoney Supply and Money DemandQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice Level01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324Money Supp

4、ly and Money DemandQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelMoney supply01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324MoneydemandMoney Supply and Money DemandQuantity fixedby the FedQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelMoney supply01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324MoneydemandMoney Supply and Money

5、 DemandQuantity fixedby the FedQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelAMoney supply01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324MoneydemandMoney Supply and Money DemandQuantity fixedby the FedQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelAMoney supply01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324Equilibriumvalue of

6、 moneyMoneydemandMoney Supply and Money DemandQuantity fixedby the FedQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelAMoney supply01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324Equilibriumprice levelEquilibriumvalue of moneyMoneydemandThe Effects of Monetary Injection貨幣注入效應nSuppose the Fed injects money into the

7、economy by buying government bonds. The supply of money curve shifts to the right. The equilibrium value of money decreases. The equilibrium price level increases.The Effects of MonetaryInjectionThe Effects of MonetaryInjectionQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice Level01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/4

8、11.3324The Effects of Monetary InjectionQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelMoneydemand01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS1The Effects of Monetary InjectionQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelMoneydemand01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS1The Effects of Monetary InjectionQu

9、antity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelMoneydemand01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS11. An increase in the money supply.The Effects of Monetary InjectionQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelMoneydemand01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS1M1MS21. An increase in the money supply.Th

10、e Effects of Monetary InjectionQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelABMoneydemand01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS1M1MS21. An increase in the money supply.The Effects of Monetary InjectionQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelABMoneydemand01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS1

11、M1MS22. .decreases the value of money .1. An increase in the money supply.The Effects of Monetary InjectionQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelABMoneydemand01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS1M1MS22. .decreases the value of money .3. andincreasesthe pricelevel.1. An increase in the mone

12、y supply.Hyperinflation惡性通貨膨脹nHyperinflation is inflation that exceeds 50 percent per month. HyperinflationnHyperinflation occurs in some countries because the government prints too much money to pay for its spending.HyperinflationnNote the relationship between the growth rate of the quantity of mon

13、ey and the price level.HyperinflationHungary匈牙利匈牙利Money supply19251924192319221921Price level100,00010,0001,000100Index (Jan. 1921 = 100)Austria奧地利奧地利Price level100,00010,0001,00010019251924192319221921Money supplyIndex (Jan. 1921 = 100)HyperinflationGermany德國德國1100 trillion1 million10 billion1 tril

14、lion100 million10,00010019251924192319221921Price levelMoneysupplyPoland波蘭波蘭MoneysupplyPrice levelIndex (Jan. 1921 = 100)10010 million100,0001 million10,0001,00019251924192319221921Index (Jan. 1921 = 100)Hyperinflation and Inflation TaxnWhen the government raises revenue by printing money, it is sai

15、d to levy an inflation tax. An inflation tax is like a tax on everyone who holds money.Hyperinflation and Inflation TaxnThe inflation ends when the government institutes fiscal reforms such as cuts in government spending.The Fisher Effect費雪效應nAccording to the Fisher effect, when the rate of inflatio

16、n rises, the nominal interest rate rises by the same amount.nThe real interest rate stays the same.The Fisher EffectnAccording to the Fisher effect, when the rate of inflation rises, the nominal interest rate rises by the same amount.nThe real interest rate stays the same.Nominal interest rate = Rea

17、l interest rate + Inflation rateThe Fisher EffectnWhen the Fed increases the rate of money growth, the result is both a higher inflation rate and a higher nominal interest rate.需求拉上型通貨膨脹ASPAD0YAD1AD2AD3AD4P1P2P3P4Y1Y2Y3成本推進型通貨膨脹ASPYAS1ADP1P2Y1Y2AS2The Costs of InflationnShoeleather costs（皮鞋成本）nMenu

18、costs（菜單成本）nRelative price variability（相對價格變動）nTax distortions（稅收扭曲）nConfusion and inconvenience（混亂與不方便）nArbitrary redistribution of wealth（任意的財富再分配）Shoeleather Costs（皮鞋成本）nShoeleather costs are the resources wasted when inflation encourages people to reduce their money holdings.Shoeleather CostsnIn

19、flation reduces the real value of money, so people have an incentive to minimize their cash holdings.Shoeleather CostsnLess cash requires more frequent trips to the bank to withdraw money from interest-bearing accounts.Shoeleather CostsnExtra trips to the bank take time away from productive activiti

20、es.Menu CostsnMenu costs are the costs of changing prices.Menu CostsnDuring inflationary times, it is necessary to update price lists and other posted prices.Menu CostsnThis is a resource-consuming process that takes away from other productive activities.Relative-Price Variability（相對價格變動）nInflation

21、distorts relative prices. nConsumer decisions are distorted, and markets are less able to allocate resources to their best use.Inflation-Induced Tax DistortionnInflation exaggerates the size of capital gains and increases the tax burden on this type of income. nWith progressive taxation（累進稅）, capita

22、l gains are taxed more heavily.Inflation-Induced Tax DistortionnThe income tax treats the nominal interest earned on savings as income,（所得稅把名義利率作為儲蓄所賺得的收入進行征稅） even though part of the nominal interest rate merely compensates for inflation（部分名義利率僅夠補償通貨膨脹造成的損失）. nThe after-tax real interest rate falls

23、, making saving less attractive.（稅后實際利率下降，導致儲蓄失去吸引力）Confusion and Inconvenience（混亂與不方便）nWith rising prices, it is more difficult to compare real revenues, costs, and profits over time.物價上漲使人們對不同時期的收入、成本和利潤難以進行比較。Arbitrary Redistribution of Wealth（任意的財富再分配）nUnanticipated inflation redistributes wealt

24、h between debtors and creditors.不可預期的通貨膨脹會造成債務人和債權人之間的財富再分配。nThis may result in wealth transfers that would not otherwise be acceptable.失業(yè)概念和分類n失業(yè)是指有勞動能力并愿意就業(yè)的勞動者找不到工作。失業(yè)可分為三種狀況：n磨擦性失業(yè)，是指因工作變動過程為尋找工作轉換而產生的失業(yè)，它被看作是一種求職性失業(yè)。n結構性失業(yè)，是指因經濟結構的變化，產業(yè)興衰轉移造成的失業(yè)。n周期性失業(yè)，是指經濟周期性衰退所造成的失業(yè)。Natural Rate of Unemployme

25、nt自然失業(yè)率nThe natural rate of unemployment is unemployment that does not go away on its own even in the long run.nIt is the amount of unemployment that the economy normally experiences.自然失業(yè)率n自然失業(yè)率是指在充分就業(yè)條件下的失業(yè)率，主要是指磨擦性失業(yè)和結構性失業(yè)。二戰(zhàn)以來，自然失業(yè)率不斷上升，其原因是：n產業(yè)結構調整速度加快，這是科技進步的結果。n失業(yè)救濟金不斷增加，不少國家失業(yè)與就業(yè)之間的效用差別越來越小。n

26、最低工資不斷上升，往往高于市場出清水平。n勞動供給結構變化，婦女就業(yè)率提高。Cyclical Unemployment周期性失業(yè)nCyclical unemployment refers to the fluctuations in unemployment around its natural rate.圍繞著自然失業(yè)率的波動nIt is associated with with short-term ups and downs of the business cycle（商業(yè)周期）.Measuring Unemployment失業(yè)統(tǒng)計nUnemployment is measured by

27、 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)美國勞動統(tǒng)計局. It surveys 60,000 randomly selected households every month.Measuring UnemploymentnThe BLS considers a person an adult if he or she is over 16 years old.Measuring UnemploymentnA person is considered employed if he or she has spent most of the previous wee

28、k working at a paid job.Measuring UnemploymentnA person is considered unemployed if he or she is on temporary layoff, looking for a job, or waiting for the start date of a new job.Measuring UnemploymentnA person in none of these categories is not in the labor force. Measuring UnemploymentnThe labor

29、force is the total number of workers, which includes both the number employed plus the number unemployed.Measuring UnemploymentnThe labor-force participation rate is the percentage of the adult population that is in the labor force.Measuring UnemploymentnThe unemployment rate is calculated as the pe

30、rcentage of the labor force that is unemployed.Measuring UnemploymentnThe unemployment rate is calculated as the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed.Unemployment rate =Number unemployedLabor force100奧肯定律n失業(yè)意味著愿意就業(yè)的勞動力資源沒有得到充分的利用，從而會使實際產出增長率低于充分就業(yè)時的產出增長率。n美國經濟學家奧肯(Arthur M. Okun)根據美國歷年的經

31、驗數據發(fā)現：實際產出增長率每低于潛在產出增長率3個百分點，就會引起失業(yè)率上升1個百分點。奧肯定律描繪了產出增長率與失業(yè)率之間的關系。n奧肯定律表明，要保持失業(yè)率不變，實際產出增長率與潛在產出增長率之間的缺口不能擴大。Why is there unemployment?nIn an ideal labor market, wages would adjust to balance the supply and demand for labor, ensuring that all workers would be fully employed.Why the Ideal Is MissednMi

32、nimum-wage laws最低工資法nUnions工會nEfficiency wages效率工資nJob search職業(yè)搜尋Minimum-Wage LawsnWhen the minimum wage is set above the level that balances supply and demand, it creates unemployment.Minimum-Wage LawsQuantity of Labor0WageMinimum-Wage LawsQuantity of Labor0LabordemandWage LaborsupplyMinimum-Wage L

33、awsWEQuantity of LaborLE0LabordemandWage LaborsupplyMinimum-Wage LawsWEQuantity of LaborLE0LabordemandWageMinimum wage LaborsupplyMinimum-Wage LawsWEQuantity of LaborLE0LabordemandWageMinimum wageLDLS LaborsupplyMinimum-Wage LawsWEQuantity of LaborLE0Surplus of labor = UnemploymentLabordemandWageMin

34、imum wageLDLS LaborsupplyUnions and Collective BargainingnA union is a worker association that bargains with employers over wages and working conditions. nA union is a type of cartel.Unions and Collective BargainingnThe process by which unions and firms agree on the terms of employment is called col

35、lective bargaining.Unions and Collective BargainingnA strike （罷工）will be organized if the union and the firm cannot reach an agreement.Unions and Collective BargainingnA strike makes some workers better off and other workers worse off.罷工會使有些工人更好，而另一些工人更壞。nWorkers in unions reap the benefits of colle

36、ctive bargaining, while workers not in the union bear some of the costs.Unions and Collective BargainingnBy acting as a cartel with ability to strike or otherwise impose high costs on employers, unions usually achieve above equilibrium wages for their members.nUnion workers earn 10 to 20 percent mor

37、e than nonunion workers.Are unions good or bad for the economy?nCritics argue that unions cause the allocation of labor to be inefficient and inequitable.批評者認為工會使勞動力配置失效和不公平 Wages above the competitive level reduce the quantity of labor demanded and cause unemployment. Some workers benefit at the ex

38、pense of other workers.Are unions good or bad for the economy?nAdvocates of unions contend that unions are a necessary antidote to the market power of firms that hire workers.nThey claim that unions are important for helping firms respond efficiently to workers concerns.長期合同理論n由于工會的存在，勞資雙方談判成本較高，所以一

39、般都傾向于簽訂長期合同。n在合同期內，名義工資一般固定不變。也就是說，在長期合同中，雇員的名義工資是剛性的。n如果合同期內出現經濟衰退，這時雇主不能通過降低工資來擴大勞動力需求，這就使勞動力市場處于非出清狀態(tài)，造成部分失業(yè)。內部人-外部人理論n內部人是指那些已在企業(yè)工作的人，外部人是指那些想到企業(yè)工作的人。n內部人在工資決定上有討價還價的能力，這是因為企業(yè)要調換內部人和雇傭外部人是要花費成本的，這些成本包括：根據合同條款，解雇內部人需作出補償；解雇內部人會引起其他內部人的不滿；雇傭外部人需花費更多的培訓費用等。n內部人會團結起來，排擠外部人，這樣就可以使內部人將工資穩(wěn)定在高于市場出清的水平。效

40、率工資理論n為刺激員工的高效率，雇主會主動把工資維持在一個高于勞動力市場出清的水平，這是因為：n高工資會增加員工怠工偷懶的機會成本；高工資可以吸引優(yōu)秀人才；高工資可以減少員工變換工作的行為；高工資可以讓員工心態(tài)平衡；高工資可以減少員工聯合的動機。n高于市場出清的高工資，會導致勞動力市場總是存在著過剩的勞動供給，失業(yè)也會持續(xù)存在。Theory of Efficiency Wages效率工資理論nEfficiency wages are above-equilibrium wages paid by firms in order to increase worker productivity. n

41、The theory of efficiency wages states that firms operate more efficiently if wages are above the equilibrium level.Theory of Efficiency WagesnA firm may prefer higher than equilibrium wages for the following reasons: Worker Health: Better paid workers eat better and thus are more productive. Worker

42、Turnover: A higher paid worker is less likely to look for another job.Theory of Efficiency WagesnA firm may prefer higher than equilibrium wages for the following reasons: Worker Effort: Higher wages motivate workers to put forward their best effort. Worker Quality: Higher wages attract a better poo

43、l of workers to apply for jobs.二元勞動力市場理論n我們可以把勞動力市場劃分為第一市場和第二市場。n第一市場工資較高，勞動條件較好，工作崗位有保障，職業(yè)前景較好。第二市場工資較低，工作條件差，工作具有不穩(wěn)定性和暫時性。n這兩個勞動力市場的求職者一般不會相互流動，這是因為第一市場的求職者不愿光顧第二市場；而第二市場的求職者無法進入第一市場。n如果出現周期性失業(yè)，第一市場的失業(yè)率要明顯低于第二市場，因為第一市場更多地受到制度的保護。Unemployment and Inflation nThe natural rate of unemployment depends

44、on various features of the labor market. Examples include minimum-wage laws, the market power of unions, and the role of efficiency wages.Unemployment and Inflation nThe inflation rate depends primarily on growth in the quantity of money, controlled by the Fed.The Phillips CurvenSociety faces a shor

45、t-run tradeoff（交替） between unemployment and inflation. If policymakers expand aggregate demand, they can lower unemployment, but only at the cost of higher inflation. If they contract aggregate demand, they can lower inflation, but at the cost of temporarily higher unemployment.The Phillips CurvenThe Phillips curve illustrates the short-run relationship between inflation and unemployment.Aggregate Demand, Aggregate Supply, and the Phillips CurvenThe Phillips curve shows the short-run combinations結合 of unemployment and inflation