股票發(fā)行價(jià)格的定價(jià)策略ppt課件

1、themegallery股票發(fā)行價(jià)錢的定價(jià)戰(zhàn)略.定價(jià)戰(zhàn)略概述目的：確定配股定價(jià)的折扣比例國際慣例：配股價(jià)錢普通以發(fā)行日前一個(gè)買賣日的收盤價(jià)或據(jù)發(fā)行日最后假設(shè)干個(gè)買賣日收盤價(jià)為根底，按照一定得折扣比例確定。背景藍(lán)星清洗于2001年4月10日的年度股東大會(huì)報(bào)告中公布了配股的決議，并且確定了配股的價(jià)錢區(qū)間為13-15元/股，公告當(dāng)日收盤價(jià)15.31元/股2001年9月19日，藍(lán)星清洗刊登了暫時(shí)股東大會(huì)的公告，調(diào)整了配股價(jià)錢的區(qū)間，并將配股價(jià)錢的定價(jià)修正為：配股闡明書刊登前20個(gè)買賣日不含刊登日均價(jià)的70%-90%。.模型思緒1、2、3、單要素模型相關(guān)性分析T檢驗(yàn)股價(jià)大盤折扣比例運(yùn)用的主要方法：.價(jià)錢

2、計(jì)算的根本公式實(shí)際除權(quán)價(jià)錢=配股發(fā)行后估計(jì)二級(jí)市場價(jià)錢配股發(fā)行前凈資產(chǎn)收益率倍數(shù)=配股發(fā)行后凈資產(chǎn)收益率倍數(shù)配股發(fā)行價(jià)錢實(shí)際除權(quán)價(jià)錢配股權(quán)股票二級(jí)市場價(jià)錢根本公式凈資產(chǎn)收益率倍數(shù)=股票價(jià)錢/凈資產(chǎn)收益率. 定價(jià)過程一：估計(jì)藍(lán)星清洗配股時(shí)間并估計(jì)期間內(nèi)大盤走勢二：確定藍(lán)星清洗個(gè)股走勢與大盤走勢的相關(guān)性分析三、選取均線值并確定權(quán)重四、藍(lán)星清洗個(gè)股走勢與大盤指數(shù)線性方程確實(shí)定五、計(jì)算不同均線值的配股區(qū)間根本假設(shè)六、根據(jù)權(quán)重最終確定配股價(jià)錢區(qū)間.根本假設(shè)配股發(fā)行前后市場預(yù)期不變。配股發(fā)行前后凈資產(chǎn)收益率倍數(shù)不變。根本假設(shè) 配股定價(jià)根本假設(shè) 本次發(fā)行根本假設(shè).根本假設(shè)分析2. 凈資產(chǎn)收益率倍數(shù)股票價(jià)錢/

3、凈資產(chǎn)收益率 運(yùn)用凈資產(chǎn)收益率倍數(shù)進(jìn)展配股定價(jià)是基于：凈資產(chǎn)收益率倍數(shù)可以有效地衡量由于發(fā)行溢價(jià)對(duì)二級(jí)市場股票帶來的攤薄效應(yīng)。1. 市場預(yù)期不變 指的是投資者對(duì)上市公司的股票的投資價(jià)值在增量發(fā)行前后不變。Chart Tile in here5070120.大盤走勢預(yù)測經(jīng)濟(jì)周期經(jīng)濟(jì)政策監(jiān)管政策市場預(yù)期國際市場美國經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)衰退、世界經(jīng)濟(jì)趨緩堅(jiān)持穩(wěn)中趨降得運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)態(tài)勢積極的財(cái)政政策證監(jiān)會(huì)重拳出擊，查處了一系列違規(guī)事件2001-11-14日藍(lán)星清洗刊登配股闡明書影響要素慢牛格局.均線預(yù)測我們選取上證A股8月1日11月13日的20日均線和30日均線值作為預(yù)測區(qū)間的樣本，經(jīng)過趨勢線預(yù)測，得到如下的預(yù)測圖。.軌

4、道線軌道的作用限制股價(jià)的變動(dòng)范圍假設(shè)對(duì)上面的或下面的直線的突破將意味著將有一個(gè)反方向的變化。 與趨勢線的區(qū)別 Content Title對(duì)軌道線的突破并不是趨勢反向的開場，而是趨勢加速的開場什么是軌道線？軌道線又稱通道線或管道線，是基于趨勢線的一種方法。.描畫統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)1平均2295.244標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差2.302731中位數(shù)2298.32眾數(shù)#N/A標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差8.918438方差79.53854峰度0.663172偏度-1.27202區(qū)域29.02832最小值2274.867最大值2303.896求和34428.66觀測數(shù)15最大(2)2303.431最小(2)2280.06置信度(95.0%)4.93

5、8866數(shù)據(jù)2平均2300.102標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差1.604739中位數(shù)2301.937眾數(shù)#N/A標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差6.215127方差38.6278峰度-0.33552偏度-0.8578區(qū)域19.12109最小值2287.48最大值2306.601求和34501.53觀測數(shù)15最大(2)2306.481最小(2)2289.549置信度(95.0%)3.441823數(shù)據(jù)3平均1981.235標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差5.485957中位數(shù)1980.184眾數(shù)#N/A標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差21.24702方差451.4358峰度-0.94715偏度0.144333區(qū)域68.72205最小值1948.666最大值2017.388求和29718.53

6、觀測數(shù)15最大(2)2010.676最小(2)1952.944置信度(95.0%)11.76621.確定有效邊境1234567最大(2)2303.4312306.4812283.4532175.3982010.6761935.4211853.167平均2295.2442300.1022258.4592104.7331981.2351909.1511794.522最小(2)2280.062289.5492211.8732036.6661952.9441879.9321749.5081234567上界2295.642300.8372259.5932129.1541991.4321916.92518

7、18.614平均2295.2442300.1022258.4592104.7331981.2351909.1511794.522下界2287.852295.1932235.7332082.911972.1881898.4281784.061上界 = 最大2-最大2-最小2/3下界 = 最小2+最大2-最小2/3.軌道線.相關(guān)性分析大盤市盈率藍(lán)星清洗市盈率市盈率=股價(jià)/每股收益樣本時(shí)間段：1999年5月1日至2001年10月24日。.相關(guān)程度完全負(fù)相關(guān) r=-1完全正相關(guān) r=1無線性關(guān)系 r=0有線性關(guān)系大盤市盈率個(gè)股市盈率大盤市盈率1個(gè)股市盈率0.7563440761通常|r|大于0.75時(shí)

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