股票發(fā)行價格的定價策略ppt課件

1、themegallery股票發(fā)行價錢的定價戰(zhàn)略.定價戰(zhàn)略概述目的：確定配股定價的折扣比例國際慣例：配股價錢普通以發(fā)行日前一個買賣日的收盤價或據(jù)發(fā)行日最后假設(shè)干個買賣日收盤價為根底，按照一定得折扣比例確定。背景藍星清洗于2001年4月10日的年度股東大會報告中公布了配股的決議，并且確定了配股的價錢區(qū)間為13-15元/股，公告當日收盤價15.31元/股2001年9月19日，藍星清洗刊登了暫時股東大會的公告，調(diào)整了配股價錢的區(qū)間，并將配股價錢的定價修正為：配股闡明書刊登前20個買賣日不含刊登日均價的70%-90%。.模型思緒1、2、3、單要素模型相關(guān)性分析T檢驗股價大盤折扣比例運用的主要方法：.價錢

2、計算的根本公式實際除權(quán)價錢=配股發(fā)行后估計二級市場價錢配股發(fā)行前凈資產(chǎn)收益率倍數(shù)=配股發(fā)行后凈資產(chǎn)收益率倍數(shù)配股發(fā)行價錢實際除權(quán)價錢配股權(quán)股票二級市場價錢根本公式凈資產(chǎn)收益率倍數(shù)=股票價錢/凈資產(chǎn)收益率. 定價過程一：估計藍星清洗配股時間并估計期間內(nèi)大盤走勢二：確定藍星清洗個股走勢與大盤走勢的相關(guān)性分析三、選取均線值并確定權(quán)重四、藍星清洗個股走勢與大盤指數(shù)線性方程確實定五、計算不同均線值的配股區(qū)間根本假設(shè)六、根據(jù)權(quán)重最終確定配股價錢區(qū)間.根本假設(shè)配股發(fā)行前后市場預期不變。配股發(fā)行前后凈資產(chǎn)收益率倍數(shù)不變。根本假設(shè) 配股定價根本假設(shè) 本次發(fā)行根本假設(shè).根本假設(shè)分析2. 凈資產(chǎn)收益率倍數(shù)股票價錢/

3、凈資產(chǎn)收益率 運用凈資產(chǎn)收益率倍數(shù)進展配股定價是基于：凈資產(chǎn)收益率倍數(shù)可以有效地衡量由于發(fā)行溢價對二級市場股票帶來的攤薄效應。1. 市場預期不變 指的是投資者對上市公司的股票的投資價值在增量發(fā)行前后不變。Chart Tile in here5070120.大盤走勢預測經(jīng)濟周期經(jīng)濟政策監(jiān)管政策市場預期國際市場美國經(jīng)濟出現(xiàn)衰退、世界經(jīng)濟趨緩堅持穩(wěn)中趨降得運轉(zhuǎn)態(tài)勢積極的財政政策證監(jiān)會重拳出擊，查處了一系列違規(guī)事件2001-11-14日藍星清洗刊登配股闡明書影響要素慢牛格局.均線預測我們選取上證A股8月1日11月13日的20日均線和30日均線值作為預測區(qū)間的樣本，經(jīng)過趨勢線預測，得到如下的預測圖。.軌

4、道線軌道的作用限制股價的變動范圍假設(shè)對上面的或下面的直線的突破將意味著將有一個反方向的變化。 與趨勢線的區(qū)別 Content Title對軌道線的突破并不是趨勢反向的開場，而是趨勢加速的開場什么是軌道線？軌道線又稱通道線或管道線，是基于趨勢線的一種方法。.描畫統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)1平均2295.244標準誤差2.302731中位數(shù)2298.32眾數(shù)#N/A標準差8.918438方差79.53854峰度0.663172偏度-1.27202區(qū)域29.02832最小值2274.867最大值2303.896求和34428.66觀測數(shù)15最大(2)2303.431最小(2)2280.06置信度(95.0%)4.93

5、8866數(shù)據(jù)2平均2300.102標準誤差1.604739中位數(shù)2301.937眾數(shù)#N/A標準差6.215127方差38.6278峰度-0.33552偏度-0.8578區(qū)域19.12109最小值2287.48最大值2306.601求和34501.53觀測數(shù)15最大(2)2306.481最小(2)2289.549置信度(95.0%)3.441823數(shù)據(jù)3平均1981.235標準誤差5.485957中位數(shù)1980.184眾數(shù)#N/A標準差21.24702方差451.4358峰度-0.94715偏度0.144333區(qū)域68.72205最小值1948.666最大值2017.388求和29718.53

6、觀測數(shù)15最大(2)2010.676最小(2)1952.944置信度(95.0%)11.76621.確定有效邊境1234567最大(2)2303.4312306.4812283.4532175.3982010.6761935.4211853.167平均2295.2442300.1022258.4592104.7331981.2351909.1511794.522最小(2)2280.062289.5492211.8732036.6661952.9441879.9321749.5081234567上界2295.642300.8372259.5932129.1541991.4321916.92518

7、18.614平均2295.2442300.1022258.4592104.7331981.2351909.1511794.522下界2287.852295.1932235.7332082.911972.1881898.4281784.061上界 = 最大2-最大2-最小2/3下界 = 最小2+最大2-最小2/3.軌道線.相關(guān)性分析大盤市盈率藍星清洗市盈率市盈率=股價/每股收益樣本時間段：1999年5月1日至2001年10月24日。.相關(guān)程度完全負相關(guān) r=-1完全正相關(guān) r=1無線性關(guān)系 r=0有線性關(guān)系大盤市盈率個股市盈率大盤市盈率1個股市盈率0.7563440761通常|r|大于0.75時

8、，以為兩個變量有很強的線性相關(guān)性。.themegalleryThank You !Add your company slogan.DiagramDescription of the contentsTitle in hereTitle in hereThemeGallery is a Design Digital Content & Contents mall developed by Guild Design Inc.BeforeAfter ThemeGallery is a Design Digital Content & Contents mall developed by Guild

9、Design Inc.Description of the contentsThemeGallery is a Design Digital Content & Contents mall developed by Guild Design Inc.Diagram- ThemeGallery is a Design Digital Content & Contents mall developed by Guild Design Inc.- ThemeGallery is a Design Digital Content & Contents mall developed by Guild D

10、esign Inc.- ThemeGallery is a Design Digital Content & Contents mall developed by Guild Design Inc.Description of the companys sub contentsDescription of the companys sub contentsDescription of the companys sub contents.Click to edit title styleClick to add TitleThemeGallery is a Design Digital Cont

11、ent & Contents mall developed by Guild Design Inc.Click to add TitleClick to add Title“A title about content Description of the contents Click to add TextClick to add Text.Click to edit title styleContents01Contents02Contents03Contents04Contents05Contents060% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 18.5%17.5%8.7%23.6%

12、63.6%84.3%ThemeGallery is a Design Digital Content & Contents mall developed by Guild Design Inc.DiagramDescription of the contentsDescription of the contentsDescription of the contentsThemeGallery is a Design Digital Content & Contents mall developed by Guild Design Inc.200420052006 ContentsThemeGa

13、llery is a Design Digital Content & Contents mall developed by Guild Design Inc.DiagramThemeGallery is a Design Digital Content & Contents mall developedby Guild Design Inc.Your text in hereYour text in hereYour text in here Add your text in hereYour text in hereYour text in hereYour text in here Ad

14、d your text in hereYour text in hereYour text in hereYour text in here Add your text in hereYour text in hereYour text in hereYour text in here.Click to edit title style Title in hereDescription of the contentsText in hereDescription of the contentsDescription of the contentsDescription of the conte

15、ntsDescription of the contents1. Title2. Title3. Title4. Title* Description of the contents* Description of the contents.Click to edit title styleClick to add TextClick to add TextClick to add TextClick to add TextClick to add TextTitle in hereTitle in hereTitle in hereText in hereText in hereText i

16、n hereDescribe a vision of company or strategic contents.Click to add TextClick to add TextClick to add TextClick to add TextClick to add TextClick to add TextClick to add TextClick to add TextClick to add Text.DiagramDescribe a vision of company or strategic contents.Describe a vision of company or

17、 strategic contents.Describe a vision of company or strategic contents.Describe a vision of company or strategic contents.Describe a vision of company or strategic contents. ThemeGallery is a Design Digital Content & Contents mall developed by Guild Design Inc.DiagramStep 2Step 3Title in hereext inh

18、ereTitle in hereText inhere1.Describe contents for a Step1 - Description of the sub contents - Description of the sub contents2.Describe contents for a Step2 - Description of the sub contents - Description of the sub contents3.Describe contents for a Step3 - Description of the sub contents - Descrip

19、tion of the sub contentsText in here.Click to edit title styleLevel 1Level 2Level 3Level 4Level 5 Description of the contents Description of the contents Description of the contents Description of the contents Description of the contents ThemeGallery is a Design Digital Content & Contents mall devel

20、oped by Guild Design Inc.Click to edit title style2004TextTextText20052006Text in hereText in hereText in hereText in hereText in hereText in here.Click to edit title styleText in hereTitle in hereText in hereText in here2003200420052006 Description of the contents Description of the contents Descri

21、ption of the contents Description of the contents Description of the contents Description of the contents Description of the contents Description of the contents ThemeGallery is a Design Digital Content & Contents mall developed by Guild Design Inc.DiagramDescribe a vision of company or strategic contents.Describe a vision of company or st