act管理者不太可能將某些事情作為問題ppt課件

1、Chapter 06DECISION MAKING:THE ESSENCE OFTHE MANAGERSJOB6-1Learning ObjectivesYou should learn to:1,Outline the steps in the decision-making process2,Explain why decision making is so pervasive in organizations3,Describe the rational decision maker4,Contrast the perfectly rational and bounded rationa

2、l approaches to decision making5,Explain the role that intuition plays in the decision-making process6-2Learning Objectives (cont.)You should learn to:6,Identify the two types of decision problems and the two types of decisions that are used to solve them7,Differentiate the decision conditions of ce

3、rtainty, risk, and uncertainty8,Describe the different decision-making styles6-3Decisionschoices from two or more alternativesall organizational members make decisionsDecision-Making Processa comprehensive, 8-step processStep 1 - Identifying a Problemproblem - discrepancy between an existing and a d

4、esired state of affairsmust be such that it exerts pressure to actmanager is unlikely to characterize a situation as a problem unless s/he has necessary resources to act管理者不太能夠?qū)⒛承┦虑樽鳛閱栴}，假設(shè)他們不具有采取行動的必要資源1,Outline the steps in the decision-making process6-4The Decision-Making ProcessProblemIdentificat

5、ion“My salespeopleneed new computersIdentification of Decision CriteriaPriceWeightWarrantyScreen typeReliabilityScreen sizeAllocation ofWeights to CriteriaReliability 10Screen size 8Warranty 5Weight 5Price 4Screen type 3Development of AlternativesAcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNECSonyToshibaImplementa

6、tionof an AlternativeGatewayEvaluationof DecisionEffectivenessAnalysis ofAlternativesAcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNECSonyToshibaSelection of anAlternativeAcerCompaqGateway HPMicromediaNECSonyToshiba6-5 Prentice Hall, 2002Decision-Making Process (cont.)Step 2 - Identifying Decision Criteriadecision c

7、riteria - whats relevant in making a decisionStep 3 - Allocating Weights to the Criteriamust weight the criteria to give them appropriate priority in the decisionStep 4 - Developing Alternativeslist the viable 可行的alternatives that could resolve the problem without evaluating themStep 5 - Analyzing A

8、lternativeseach alternative is evaluated against the criteriaDecision Making (cont.)6-6 Assessed Values of Notebook Computer Alternatives Against Decision Criteria 6-7Evaluation of Laptop Computer Alternatives Against Criteria and Weights6-8Decision Making (cont.)Decision-Making Process (cont.)Step

9、6 - Selecting an Alternativechoosing the best alternative from among those consideredStep 7 - Implementing the Alternativeimplementation - conveying the decision to those affected by it and getting their commitment to itparticipation in decision-making process inclines people to support the decision

10、decision may fail if it is not implemented properlyStep 8 - Evaluating Decision Effectivenessdetermine whether the problem is resolved6-92,Explain why decision making is so pervasive in organizations6-103,Describe the rational decision makingl Rational Decision Makingdecisions are consistent前后一致的, v

11、alue-maximizing choices within specified constraintsmanagers assumed to make rational decisionsAssumptions of Rationality - decision maker would:be objective and logicalcarefully define a problemhave a clear and specific goalselect the alternative that maximizes the likelihood of achieving the goalm

12、ake decision in the firms best economic interestsmanagerial decision making seldom meets all the tests6-11Assumptions Of RationalityRationalDecisionMakingProblem isclear andunambiguousSingle, well-defined goalis to be achievedAll alternativesand consequencesare knownPreferencesare clearPreferences偏好

13、are constantand stableNo time or costconstraints existFinal choicewill maximizepayoff6-124,Contrast the perfectly rational and boundedly rational approaches to decision makingBounded Rationalitybehave rationally within the parameters參數(shù) of a simplified decision-making process that is limited by an in

14、dividuals ability to process informationsatisfice稱心 - accept solutions that are “good enoughIs a common error committed in the DM process?escalation of commitment - increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrongrefusal to admit that the initial decision may

15、have been flawed6-135,Explain the role that intuition plays in the decision-making processRole of Intuitionintuitive decision making - subconscious process of making decisions on the basis of experience and accumulated judgmentdoes not rely on a systematic or thorough analysis of the problemgenerall

16、y complements a rational analysis6-14What Is Intuition?Decisions basedon experienceDecisions basedon feelings andemotionsDecisions basedon ethical valuesor cultureDecisions basedon subconsciousdataDecisions basedon skills,knowledge,or trainingIntuitionAffect-initiateddecisionsExperienced-based decis

17、ionsValues orethics-baseddecisionsSubconsciousmentalprocessingCognitive認知的-baseddecisions6-156,Identify the two types of decision problems and the two types of decisions that are used to solve them Types of Problems and DecisionsWell-Structured Problems - straightforward, familiar, and easily define

18、dProgrammed Decisions - used to address structured problemsminimize the need for managers to use discretionfacilitate organizational efficiencyprocedure - series of interrelated sequential steps順序的步驟used to respond to a structured problemrule - explicit 清楚的 statement of what to do or not to dopolicy

19、 - guidelines or parameters for decision making6-166,Identify the two types of decision problems and the two types of decisions that are used to solve themTypes of Problems and Decisions (cont.)Poorly-Structured Problems - new, unusual problems for which information is ambiguous or incompleteNonprog

20、rammed Decisions - used to address poorly- structured problemsproduce a custom-made responsemore frequent among higher-level managersfew decisions in the real world are either fully programmed or nonprogrammed 6-17Types Of Problems, Types Of Decisions, And Level In The OrganizationProgrammedDecision

21、sNonprogrammedDecisionsLevel inOrganizationTopLowerWell-structuredIll-structuredType ofProblem6-187,Differentiate the decision conditions of certainty, risk, and uncertaintyDecision-Making ConditionsCertainty - outcome of every alternative is knownidealistic rather than realisticRisk - able to estim

22、ate the probability of outcomes stemming from each alternativeexpected value - the conditional return from each possible outcomemultiply expected revenue from each outcome by the probability of each outcome6-19Expected Value for Revenues from the Addition of One Ski Lift6-20Decision TreesDecision po

23、int Outcome pointBranch of solutionprobabilityValue of loss and profitExpected Value= Value of loss and profit* probabilityexampleP125Rent 20,000sq.ftRent 12,000sq.ftstrong070weak030strong070weak030$320,000$50,000$240,000$130,000Expected value 320*070+50*030=239Expected value 240*070+130*030=207例:某公

24、司方案開發(fā)一種新產(chǎn)品,設(shè)計了奢華型和普及型兩個型號:個型號:奢華型:勝利盈利800萬元，勝利的概率為60%, 失敗虧損300萬元. 失敗的概率為40%;普及型:勝利盈利600萬元. 勝利的概率為70%.失敗虧損 30萬元. 失敗的概率為30%。決策方案 自然形狀及概率 支付值 期望值奢華型普及型勝利060失敗040勝利070失敗030800-300600-30800*060+-300*040=360600*070+-30*030=411Decision-Making Conditions (cont.) Uncertainty - not certain about outcomes and

25、unable to estimate probabilitiespsychological orientation of decision makermaximax choice - optimisticmaximizing the maximum possible payoff最大最大選擇maximin choice - pessimistic maximizing the minimum possible payoff最大最小選擇minimax - minimize the maximum “regret最小化其最大遺憾6-25Payoff Matrix收益矩陣6-26Regret Mat

26、rix(遺憾矩陣)6-278,Describe the different decision-making stylesDecision-Making Styles決策風格two dimensions define the approach to decision makingway of thinking - differs from rational to intuitivetolerance for ambiguity模糊接受力 - a high need for consistency and order in making decision so that ambiguity is

27、minimized. define four decision-making stylesDirective - fast, efficient, and logicalAnalytic - careful and able to adapt or cope with new situationsConceptual - able to find creative solutionsBehavioral - seek acceptance of decisions6-28Decision-Making StylesAnalyticDirectiveBehavioralRationalIntuitiveWay of ThinkingConceptualHigh