Chapter 7 International Monetary System(國(guó)際金融國(guó)家級(jí)課程上海金融學(xué)院)課件

1、Chapter 7 International Monetary System第一節(jié) 國(guó)際貨幣體系概述國(guó)際貨幣體系的涵義國(guó)際間進(jìn)行各種交易支付所采用的一系列安排和慣例；以及支配各國(guó)貨幣關(guān)系的一套規(guī)則和機(jī)構(gòu)。The channels of interdependence depend, in turn, on the monetary and exchange rate arrangements that countries adopted-a set of institutions called the international monetary system.Arrangement Cat

2、egories國(guó)際收支及其調(diào)節(jié)匯率決定及其變動(dòng)國(guó)際貨幣或儲(chǔ)備資產(chǎn)的數(shù)量和形式國(guó)際金融市場(chǎng)與資本流動(dòng)國(guó)際貨幣合作的形式與機(jī)構(gòu)Objects and FunctionsInternal balance requires the full employment of a country resources and domestic price level stability. External balance is attained when a countrys current account is neither so deeply in deficit nor so strongly in s

3、urplus.Types of International monetary system1. 匯率制度 exchange rate system (1) Fixed exchange rate system (2) Adjustable Peg (3) Crawling Peg (4) Managed Float (5) Floating exchange rate system2. 貨幣本位 monetary standard (reserve asset) (1) Commodity Standard (Gold Standard) (2) Credit Standard (inconv

4、ertible paper money) (3) Mixed Standard (gold exchange standard)The Gold Standard (1)第二節(jié) 國(guó)際金本位制度的形成及其特點(diǎn)：The gold standard had its origin in the use of gold coins as a medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value. The gold standard as a legal institution dates from 1819, when the British P

5、arliament passed the Resumption Act-exchanging currency notes for gold on demand at a fixed rate.The Gold Standard (2)Later in the nineteenth century, Germany, Japan, and other countries also adopted the gold standard. The United States effectively joined the gold standard in 1879 when it pegged to

6、gold the paper “greenbacks” issued during the Civil War. The U. S. Gold Standard Act of 1900 institutionalized the dollar-gold link.Merits of International Gold Standard國(guó)際金本位制的作用：由于各國(guó)匯率由含金量確定，匯率波動(dòng)受黃金輸送點(diǎn)限制，各國(guó)間匯率穩(wěn)定。國(guó)際收支失衡的調(diào)節(jié)通過(guò)“物價(jià)和現(xiàn)金流動(dòng)機(jī)制”自動(dòng)調(diào)節(jié)，避免政府政策的人為失誤。由于沒(méi)有外匯管制，有利于商品和資本在國(guó)際間自由流動(dòng)，使生產(chǎn)要素在國(guó)際間達(dá)到最佳組合和配置。對(duì)偏好

7、依賴“通貨膨脹”的政府施加了外部約束。因?yàn)槭艿?1)該國(guó)貨幣用黃金存量的限制；(2)物價(jià)和現(xiàn)金流動(dòng)機(jī)制會(huì)使貨幣供應(yīng)和物價(jià)水平恢復(fù)平衡Drawbacks of Gold Standard金本位制的缺陷：世界黃金存量的增長(zhǎng)跟不上工業(yè)用金，貨幣用金和貯藏用金需求。（發(fā)行紙幣的黃金準(zhǔn)備）沒(méi)有國(guó)際監(jiān)督機(jī)構(gòu)，各國(guó)政府不遵守“游戲規(guī)則”，順差國(guó)不愿減少順差，而調(diào)節(jié)國(guó)際收支的負(fù)擔(dān)全部落在逆差國(guó)身上。黃金作為貨幣發(fā)行準(zhǔn)備的成本太大。挖掘，窖藏，運(yùn)輸，和看守的機(jī)會(huì)成本太高。Rules of the Game (1)The reactions of central banks to gold flows acros

8、s their borders furnished another mechanism to help restore balance of payment equilibrium. Central banks that were persistently losing gold were motivated to contract their domestic asset holding, pushing domestic interest rates upward and attracting inflows of capital from abroad. Central banks ga

9、ining gold had much weaker incentives to eliminate their own imports of the metals. The main incentive was the greater profitability of interest-bearing domestic assets compared with “barren” gold. Rules of the Game (2)The practices of selling domestic assets in the face of a deficit and buying dome

10、stic assets in the face of a surplus. This terminology is coined by Keynes. Because such measures speeded the movement of all countries toward their external balance goals, they increased the efficiency of the automatic adjustment processes inherent in the gold standard. The incentives to obey the r

11、ules applied with greater force to deficit than to surplus countries.Evolution of International Gold Standard國(guó)際金本位制的演變1922年在意大利熱那亞城的世界貨幣會(huì)議決定采用“節(jié)約黃金”的原則。美國(guó)金本位制；英國(guó)和法國(guó)金塊本位制；其他國(guó)家（發(fā)展中國(guó)家）金匯兌本位制。形成一種不受單一貨幣統(tǒng)治的貨幣體系。金塊本位制：1國(guó)內(nèi)不流通金幣；2銀行券在一定數(shù)量下才能兌換黃金。金匯兌本位制：1國(guó)內(nèi)不流通金幣；2國(guó)內(nèi)的銀行券只能購(gòu)買外匯，用外匯在國(guó)外兌換黃金；3該國(guó)（殖民地）貨幣與另一個(gè)金（塊）本位制

12、國(guó)家（宗主國(guó)）的貨幣實(shí)行固定匯率，并將外匯和黃金儲(chǔ)存在宗主國(guó)。Collapse of Gold Standard-1金匯兌本位制的三特點(diǎn)削弱了黃金的自動(dòng)調(diào)節(jié)作用。19291933世界經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中各國(guó)紛紛放棄貨幣與黃金的聯(lián)系。1933美國(guó)爆發(fā)貨幣信用危機(jī)，停止美元兌換黃金；提高了黃金的官價(jià)。德國(guó)放棄了金匯兌本位制。英國(guó)停止黃金的兌換。1936法國(guó)，比利時(shí)，荷蘭，意大利，波蘭，瑞士等六國(guó)黃金集團(tuán)瓦解。Collapse of Gold Standard-2Last rescue: 1936.9英，美，法達(dá)成三國(guó)貨幣協(xié)定三國(guó)黃金協(xié)定 。Failure of further efforts:由于法國(guó)的黃金

13、受投機(jī)沖擊而外流，1937.6法國(guó)放棄金本位制。第二次世界大戰(zhàn)的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)準(zhǔn)備。西方國(guó)家從美國(guó)購(gòu)買軍事物資，引起黃金流失。The Bretton Woods System- I布雷頓森林體系的建立背景美國(guó)懷特計(jì)劃英國(guó)凱恩斯計(jì)劃國(guó)際穩(wěn)定基金方案存款原則設(shè)立國(guó)際貨幣穩(wěn)定基金，資金總額為50億美元，由成員國(guó)用黃金和本幣等交納。國(guó)際清算聯(lián)盟計(jì)劃透支原則設(shè)立世界性中央銀行，由該行發(fā)行Bancor作為清算單位， Bancor等于黃金，各國(guó)可以用黃金換Bancor，但反過(guò)來(lái)則不行。The Bretton Woods System- II美國(guó)懷特計(jì)劃英國(guó)凱恩斯計(jì)劃4. 認(rèn)繳分額= 本國(guó)GNP, 黃金外匯儲(chǔ)備，國(guó)際收

14、支差額。根據(jù)各國(guó)繳納份額的多少?zèng)Q定各國(guó)的投票權(quán)。5. 發(fā)行Unita的國(guó)際貨幣。作為計(jì)算單位，含金量為137 1/7格令。相當(dāng)于10美元。6. 穩(wěn)定匯率。各國(guó)規(guī)定本幣與Unita之間法定平價(jià)。不經(jīng)基金同意，不能變動(dòng)。4. 承擔(dān)分額=三年進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易額平均。不繳納黃金和現(xiàn)款，只是開(kāi)設(shè)往來(lái)帳戶。順差時(shí)將盈余存入帳戶；逆差時(shí)可以申請(qǐng)透資。透資總額為300億美元。5.發(fā)行Bancor作為清算單位， Bancor等于黃金。6. 順差國(guó)和逆差國(guó)共同負(fù)擔(dān)調(diào)節(jié)國(guó)際收支不平衡。強(qiáng)調(diào)匯率彈性。Common Grounds between White and Keynes都強(qiáng)調(diào)解決經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目不平衡。都只看重工業(yè)國(guó)的資金

15、需要；忽視發(fā)展中國(guó)家。探求匯率穩(wěn)定；防止競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性貨幣貶值。英國(guó)被迫放棄國(guó)際清算聯(lián)盟計(jì)劃而接受美國(guó)的國(guó)際穩(wěn)定基金方案。1944年發(fā)表了專家關(guān)于建立國(guó)際貨幣基金的聯(lián)合聲明，同年7月在美國(guó)新罕布什爾州的布雷頓森林召開(kāi)了有44國(guó)參加的“聯(lián)合和聯(lián)盟國(guó)家國(guó)際貨幣基金會(huì)議”。What is the Bretton Woods System? (1)兩個(gè)協(xié)定：國(guó)際貨幣基金組織協(xié)定和國(guó)際復(fù)興開(kāi)發(fā)銀行協(xié)定建立起一個(gè)以美元為中心的國(guó)際貨幣體系。宗旨：建立一個(gè)永久性的國(guó)際機(jī)構(gòu)以促進(jìn)國(guó)際貨幣合作。促進(jìn)匯率穩(wěn)定，防止競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性貨幣貶值，建立多邊支付制度，促進(jìn)國(guó)際貿(mào)易和生產(chǎn)資源開(kāi)發(fā)。向成員國(guó)融資，以減輕和調(diào)節(jié)國(guó)際收支不平衡。Wh

16、at is the Bretton Woods System? (2)In July 1944, representatives of 44 countries meeting in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, drafted and signed the Articles of Agreement of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Even as the war continued, statement in the Allied countries were looking ahead to the econ

17、omic needs of the postwar world. The system set up by the Bretton Woods agreement called for fixed exchange rates against the U.S. dollar and an unvarying dollar price of gold-$35 an ounce. Member countries held their official international reserves largely in the form of gold or dollar assets and h

18、ad the right to sell dollars to the Fed for gold at the official price.Main Content of the Bretton Woods System布雷頓森林體系的主要內(nèi)容：以黃金為基礎(chǔ)，以美元作為最主要的國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備貨幣。（雙掛鉤）支柱1實(shí)行固定匯率制度。（各國(guó)貨幣與美元的匯率只能在平價(jià)上下1%的幅度內(nèi)波動(dòng)。支柱2IMF給成員國(guó)提供輔助性的儲(chǔ)備供應(yīng)來(lái)源。成員國(guó)繳納的25%的黃金和75%本幣。在需要時(shí)，可用本幣向IMF購(gòu)買一定數(shù)額外匯。 信貸功能成員國(guó)不得限制經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目的支付，不得采取歧視性貨幣措施，要實(shí)行多邊支付。 協(xié)調(diào)功能

19、“稀缺貨幣條款”，成員國(guó)有權(quán)對(duì)稀缺貨幣采取臨時(shí)兌換限制，但從未實(shí)施過(guò)。 協(xié)調(diào)功能More about Bretton Woods System: 1二次大戰(zhàn)前后的金匯兌本位制的對(duì)比：戰(zhàn)前的金匯兌本位制戰(zhàn)后的金匯兌本位制1.英鎊區(qū)+美元區(qū)+法郎區(qū)2.允許居民兌換黃金3.沒(méi)有國(guó)際機(jī)構(gòu)維持國(guó)際貨幣秩序1. 美元+黃金2. 只允許外國(guó)政府向美國(guó)兌換黃金3. 有IMF來(lái)保證國(guó)際貨幣體系運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)More about Bretton Woods System: 2二次大戰(zhàn)前后的金匯兌本位制的相同處：各成員國(guó)都要規(guī)定貨幣的平價(jià)金平價(jià)各成員國(guó)匯率變動(dòng)幅度1% 黃金輸送點(diǎn)各成員國(guó)的國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備是黃金+可兌換貨幣外匯儲(chǔ)備各

20、成員國(guó)要使貨幣可兌換，對(duì)經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目不能管制自由貿(mào)易+自由兌換More about Bretton Woods System: 3布雷頓森林體系的作用：解決了世界黃金產(chǎn)量不足，美元的增加發(fā)行，彌補(bǔ)了國(guó)際清償能力短缺。匯率穩(wěn)定和有彈性促進(jìn)國(guó)際貿(mào)易，投資和信貸的發(fā)展。IMF的各種短，中期貸款和融資使臨時(shí)逆差國(guó)有buffer余地。成員國(guó)有相對(duì)的經(jīng)濟(jì)自主權(quán)。在國(guó)際收支根本不平衡時(shí)可以更改匯率。為各成員國(guó)提供了相互磋商協(xié)調(diào)的講壇。達(dá)到內(nèi)部和外部的平衡。Drawbacks of Bretton Woods System布雷頓森林體系的缺陷：“雙掛鉤”“Triffin Dilemma”早在50年代美國(guó)耶魯大學(xué)教

21、授提出。美元無(wú)法按固定比價(jià)維持同黃金的可兌換性。美元的增加發(fā)行必然引起人們對(duì)美元可兌換性的懷疑。 信心危機(jī)。國(guó)際收支調(diào)節(jié)機(jī)制的效率不高，并且不對(duì)稱。逆差國(guó)負(fù)擔(dān)過(guò)重。固定匯率的多邊性和1%幅度比較僵化。順差國(guó)不愿貨幣升值或膨脹經(jīng)濟(jì)。迫使逆差國(guó)接受有條件的貸款來(lái)融通國(guó)際收支逆差。該條件是緊縮國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)。Breakdown of Bretton Woods SystemDollar ShortageDollar Glut世界黃金3/4集中到美國(guó)1948 Marshall Plan1958EEC1960 第一次美元危機(jī): 黃金儲(chǔ)備178億1961 Basel Agreement國(guó)際清算銀行的8國(guó)中央銀行

22、1961.10Gold Pool1961.11借款總安排$60億美元巴黎俱樂(lè)部1968第二次美元危機(jī)：3債務(wù)黃金美國(guó)黃金儲(chǔ)備流失14億美元關(guān)閉倫敦黃金市場(chǎng)解散黃金總庫(kù)實(shí)行黃金雙價(jià)制（官民分開(kāi)）1971第三次美元危機(jī)：短期外債678億黃金儲(chǔ)備110億1971.8.15尼克松“新經(jīng)濟(jì)政策”停止黃金兌換；征10% 進(jìn)口附加稅Smithsonian Agreement1973.2第四次美元危機(jī)：布雷頓森林體系崩潰U.S. macro-data, 1964-1972, Inflation rate U.S. macro-data, 1964-1972, Current account surplusU.

23、S. macro-data, 1964-1972,Money supply growth rateSpecial Drawing Rights 1In 1976, IMF members agreed to the creation of the Special Drawing Right (SDR), an artificial reserve asset similar to the IMF currency Triffin had envisioned. SDRs are used in transactions between central banks, but their crea

24、tion had relatively little impact on the functioning of the international monetary system. Their impact was limited partly because by the late 1960s, the system of fixed exchange rates was beginning to show strains that would soon lead to its collapse.Special Drawing Rights 21964年比利時(shí)提出了一個(gè)折衷方案：主張?jiān)黾痈鲊?guó)

25、向IMF的自動(dòng)提款權(quán)，而不是另創(chuàng)新的儲(chǔ)備貨幣來(lái)解決shortage of International liquidity.1969IMF年會(huì)正式通過(guò)了十國(guó)集團(tuán)提出的關(guān)于特別提款權(quán)的方案。并決定從19701972年的三年內(nèi)，有IMF發(fā)行95億SDRs， 按成員國(guó)攤付的原有份額比例進(jìn)行分配，以補(bǔ)充黃金不足。以此作為成員國(guó)原有的普通提款權(quán)以外的儲(chǔ)備資產(chǎn)的手段。Special Drawing Rights 3特別提款權(quán)：是IMF成員國(guó)在該組織的儲(chǔ)備資產(chǎn)，它是一種有黃金保值的記帳單位，稱為“紙黃金”。它是由IMF根據(jù)各成員國(guó)上年年底繳納份額的比率進(jìn)行分配。份額越大，得到的分配就越多?？梢裕寒?dāng)成員國(guó)發(fā)生國(guó)

26、際收支逆差時(shí)可以動(dòng)用。即：把它轉(zhuǎn)給另一成員國(guó)，換取可兌換貨幣，以償付逆差。不可以：不能兌換黃金；不能直接用于貿(mào)易和非貿(mào)易結(jié)算。Valuation of SDRsIMF(1974.6)達(dá)成協(xié)議，改16種貨幣重新定值。選擇貨幣的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是19861972年5年內(nèi)商品和勞務(wù)出口額占國(guó)際總出口額的1%以上國(guó)家的貨幣。1978年以后每隔5年調(diào)整一次。1981年起，由5種貨幣定值 。（教材219頁(yè)）貨幣美元馬克日元法郎英鎊比重%1981421913131319864219151212Limitation of SDRs特別提款權(quán)是一個(gè)沒(méi)有物資基礎(chǔ)的記帳單位。它即不象黃金本身具有價(jià)值；也不象美元，英鎊，日元等貨

27、幣有一個(gè)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力作為后盾。它是一種虛構(gòu)的國(guó)際清償能力。充其量只能作為成員國(guó)原有提款權(quán)的一種補(bǔ)充。特別提款權(quán)只是為了解決國(guó)際收支不平衡的權(quán)宜措施。不會(huì)引起人們對(duì)它的持有欲望。如果 IMF國(guó)際性機(jī)構(gòu)的變遷，它的存在便會(huì)引起疑問(wèn)。Status Quo of International Monetary System 1Revising the IMFs Charter, 1975-1976.Because floating rates had seemed to function well in conditions of adversity, the governments of the in

28、dustrialized countries acknowledged late in 1975 that they were prepared to live with floating exchange rates for the indefinite future. The IMFs directors met at Kingston, Jamaica, in January 1976 to approve a revision of the fourth IMF Article of Agreement, which covered exchange rate arrangement.

29、Status Quo of International Monetary System 2The new Article IV implicitly endorsed floating rates by freeing each member country to choose any exchange rate system it prepared. Governments were urged to follow macroeconomic policies that would promote price stability and growth and they were to avo

30、id “manipulating exchange rates to gain an unfair competitive advantage over other members”Status Quo of International Monetary System 3牙買加協(xié)定Jamaica Agreement, 1976修訂基金份額浮動(dòng)匯率合法化黃金非貨幣化 （廢除黃金官價(jià)）擴(kuò)大對(duì)發(fā)展中國(guó)家資金融通以SDRs為主要儲(chǔ)備資產(chǎn)布雷頓森林體系牙買加體系（對(duì)原有體系的黃金，匯率和特別提款權(quán)三方面進(jìn)行改革。 第二次修正案Status Quo of International Monetary Sy

31、stem 4牙買加體系是國(guó)際金融動(dòng)蕩的產(chǎn)物。該體系的缺陷如下：國(guó)際收支嚴(yán)重失調(diào)。沒(méi)有調(diào)節(jié)措施和監(jiān)督機(jī)構(gòu)來(lái)督促順差國(guó)減少盈余；逆差國(guó)減少赤字。多種貨幣儲(chǔ)備體系的不穩(wěn)定性。必須使國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備貨幣多樣化來(lái)分散外匯風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。匯率波動(dòng)頻繁。國(guó)際投機(jī)性資本大規(guī)模流動(dòng)造成各國(guó)利率，物價(jià)和就業(yè)混亂。Status Quo of International Monetary System 4區(qū)域性貨幣集團(tuán)的抬頭在國(guó)際性(IMF)的協(xié)調(diào)功能衰退的同時(shí)，區(qū)域性貨幣集團(tuán)的協(xié)調(diào)功能在加強(qiáng)。最成功的是歐洲貨幣體系和1999年的歐元的誕生。美洲是由于美國(guó)的美元?jiǎng)萘^(guò)于強(qiáng)大。區(qū)域性的貨幣合作與IMF過(guò)去功能類似。但是美國(guó)和加拿大的貨幣

32、政策相當(dāng)協(xié)調(diào)。亞洲各國(guó)由于對(duì)日本的過(guò)去侵略難于忘懷。對(duì)日元有抵觸心理。在亞洲不可能形成象歐洲那樣的貨幣區(qū)。此外，日本太自私并且經(jīng)濟(jì)還在往下滑。其它區(qū)域性貨幣組織更本不足掛齒。Reform of International Monetary SystemCurrent proposals to reform the international monetary system run the gamut from a more elaborate system of target zones for the dollar to the resurrection of fixed rates to

33、the introduction of a single world currency. Because countries seem unwilling to give up the autonomy floating dollar rates have given them, it is unlikely that any of these changes is in the cards. With greater policy cooperation among the main players, there is no reason why floating exchange rate

34、s should not function well in the future.Prospect of International Monetary System - 1要解決的問(wèn)題：1. 何為本位貨幣/儲(chǔ)備貨幣？2. 什么匯率制度？何為本位貨幣/儲(chǔ)備貨幣？建立世界性的中央銀行：把IMF改造成世界中央銀行。成員國(guó)把所持有的國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備的20%存入該行。這項(xiàng)存款以黃金表示，有利息。成員國(guó)之間清算可通過(guò)世界性中央銀行的存款辦理轉(zhuǎn)帳。恢復(fù)金本位制：黃金金價(jià)要大幅度提高以適應(yīng)國(guó)際貿(mào)易的發(fā)展。但是，如今各國(guó)政府更重視國(guó)內(nèi)平衡。金本位制的自動(dòng)調(diào)節(jié)不易發(fā)揮作用。私人窯藏黃金的傾向增大。美國(guó)政府的黃金委員會(huì)討論

35、否決了恢復(fù)金本位制的方案。Prospect of International Monetary System - 23. 調(diào)整黃金價(jià)格: (1)提高黃金價(jià)格滿足國(guó)際流通手段不足刺激黃金的生產(chǎn)。(2)降低黃金價(jià)格促使私人出售黃金相應(yīng)提高關(guān)鍵貨幣的價(jià)格增加國(guó)際流通手段。 4. 恢復(fù)美元本位制：承認(rèn)現(xiàn)實(shí)的局面國(guó)際貿(mào)易和非貿(mào)易結(jié)算中使用最大的貨幣(70%)。但是Triffin Dilemma仍然存在。5. 特別提款權(quán)本位制：應(yīng)為SDRs是人為創(chuàng)造的資產(chǎn)，它成為國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備資產(chǎn)的前提必須有世界性中央銀行的存在。6. 商品性儲(chǔ)備貨幣本位制：普通商品的產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)比黃金快，并且一組商品加權(quán)平均價(jià)比黃金價(jià)格更穩(wěn)定。黃

36、金美元匯兌本位制 一組商品多種儲(chǔ)備貨幣本位制。Prospect of International Monetary System - 3匯率制度改革的建議：實(shí)行爬動(dòng)Crawling Peg/Sliding Peg釘住的匯率制：匯率隨宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)和國(guó)際收支狀況階段性調(diào)整。同時(shí)在短期內(nèi)保持相對(duì)穩(wěn)定性。對(duì)于發(fā)展中國(guó)家比較適合。實(shí)行匯率目標(biāo)區(qū)(target zone)： “目標(biāo)區(qū)”也就是主要貨幣之間確定匯率的波動(dòng)幅度。其他非主要貨幣釘住目標(biāo)隨之浮動(dòng)。目標(biāo)區(qū)旨在反映實(shí)際匯率。Target Zone (band) 特點(diǎn)：確定各國(guó)貨幣的中心匯率， 并在中心匯率附近確定一個(gè)匯率波動(dòng)的范圍。它即有浮動(dòng)匯率的靈活性又

37、有固定匯率的穩(wěn)定性。區(qū)別：(Target Zone vs. Bretton Woods )它仍是一種浮動(dòng)匯率形式；只不過(guò)是為幾種主要貨幣的波動(dòng)規(guī)定一個(gè)幅度而已。當(dāng)匯率波動(dòng)達(dá)到目標(biāo)區(qū)的上下限時(shí)，有關(guān)國(guó)家可以不承擔(dān)干預(yù)的義務(wù)。但必須運(yùn)用經(jīng)濟(jì)政策調(diào)整使匯率回到目標(biāo)區(qū)內(nèi)。Which Exchange Rate System is better?Answer: It depends on the over all international economic situation.Fixed Exchange Rate is betterFloating Exchange rate is betterWo

38、rld EconomyEuropean Monetary System 1Historical Evolution of EMS.1950歐洲支付同盟 (1)清算采用一種貨幣；(2)內(nèi)部貿(mào)易不平衡由一個(gè)多邊機(jī)構(gòu)來(lái)統(tǒng)籌；(3)順差國(guó)通過(guò)同盟向逆差國(guó)自動(dòng)提供信貸。1969建立歐洲貨幣聯(lián)盟(European Monetary Cooperation Fund-EMU)提出分三階段實(shí)現(xiàn)貨幣聯(lián)盟目標(biāo)。19711973: 目標(biāo)是縮小成員國(guó)貨幣波動(dòng)幅度2.25%。成立European Monetary Cooperation Fund.19741976: 目標(biāo)是匯聚成員國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備；維持固定匯率制；實(shí)現(xiàn)內(nèi)部資

39、本的自由流動(dòng)。19771980: 目標(biāo)是同一經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)，區(qū)內(nèi)貨幣，勞動(dòng)，資本自由流動(dòng)。建立共同固定匯率；共同儲(chǔ)備貨幣；共同中央銀行。European Monetary System 2In practice all EMS currencies are pegged to the DM. As a result Germany is able to set monetary policy for the EMS, just as the United States did in the Bretton Woods system. The credibility theory of the EMS

40、holds that participating governments profit from the German Bundesbanks reputation as an inflation fighter when they peg their currencies to the DM. In fact, inflation rates in EMS countries have tended to converge around Germanys generally low inflation rate. Critics of Germany charge that it has a

41、bused its dominant position by neglecting the effects its policies have on other EMS countries. Germany Dominance:Inflation convergence within the EMS/ Countrys annual inflation less Germanys annual inflationEuropean Monetary System 3A brief glossary of EuronymsCAPCommon Agricultural PolicyECEuropea

42、n CommunityECUEuropean Currency UnitEMSEuropean Monetary SystemEMUEuropean Monetary UnionERMExchange Rate MechanismOur discussion of EMS will throw light not only on the forces promoting greater unification of national economies but also on the forces that make a country think twice before giving up

43、 completely its control over domestic monetary policy.European Monetary System 41979歐洲貨幣體系EMS生效。8國(guó)（法國(guó)，西德，意大利，荷蘭，比利時(shí)，盧森堡，愛(ài)爾蘭，丹麥）英國(guó)只參加歐洲貨幣基金。后來(lái)希臘，西班牙，葡萄牙也加入。Three Motivations:歐共體內(nèi)部生產(chǎn)國(guó)際化，一體化要求。配合共同農(nóng)業(yè)政策，關(guān)稅同盟。共同對(duì)付美元危機(jī)，穩(wěn)定內(nèi)部貿(mào)易和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。歐洲政治聯(lián)合，一體化的需要。European Currency Unit: ECUECU (1979) 取代EUA (1975), 類似SDRs， 它

44、是12國(guó)貨幣的貨幣籃子，每種貨幣在貨幣籃子中的比重是由各國(guó)在歐共體內(nèi)部貿(mào)易總額以及GNP中所占份額加權(quán)平均計(jì)算。其中馬克有舉足輕重的影響。Exchange Mechanism of EMS歐洲貨幣體系的匯率制度：聯(lián)合浮動(dòng)(Joint Floating after Mar. 1997)：成員國(guó)貨幣之間實(shí)行固定匯率，對(duì)非成員國(guó)的貨幣則實(shí)行聯(lián)合浮動(dòng)匯率。匯率穩(wěn)定是通過(guò)兩種干預(yù)工具平價(jià)網(wǎng)體系(Parity Grid): “格子體系”要求成員國(guó)貨幣之間彼此確定中心匯率，匯率波動(dòng)只能在中心匯率上下浮動(dòng)。超過(guò)幅度，中央銀行有義務(wù)干預(yù)。貨幣籃子體系(Currency Basket)確定成員國(guó)貨幣對(duì)歐洲貨幣單位

45、的中心匯率，再計(jì)算每種貨幣對(duì)這一中心匯率所允許的最大偏離幅度。Maximum Spread of Divergence (MSD)籃子中的權(quán)數(shù)越大，其允許波幅就越小。European Monetary Fund-EMF歐洲貨幣基金資金來(lái)源：成員國(guó)繳納各自黃金外匯儲(chǔ)備的20%。資金用途：干預(yù)外匯（短期信貸）；向國(guó)際收支困難的成員國(guó)提供貸款（短期貸款，中期財(cái)政貸款）。Delors Report1989德洛爾報(bào)告Delors Report 即經(jīng)濟(jì)與貨幣同盟研究委員會(huì)報(bào)告 “經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)盟”指人員，商品，勞務(wù)以及資本的自由流動(dòng)和共同政策的充分協(xié)調(diào)。建立中央銀行設(shè)想?！柏泿磐恕笔侵肛泿磐耆筒豢扇∠刈杂蓛?/p>

46、換；資本在一體化金融市場(chǎng)上自由流動(dòng)；不可改變的固定匯率。建議分三階段實(shí)現(xiàn)Economic and Monetary Union。 第一階段：深化金融一體化；所有仍在浮動(dòng)的成員國(guó)貨幣加入EMU。第二階段：建立歐洲中央銀行體系。第三階段：推行不可改變的固定匯率制。 Maastricht Treaty1991馬斯特里赫特條約歐洲共同體首腦在荷蘭小鎮(zhèn)Maastricht簽署貨幣聯(lián)盟。最終要求：設(shè)立中央銀行，發(fā)行統(tǒng)一貨幣。19901993:所有成員國(guó)加入歐洲貨幣體系匯率機(jī)制；資本自由移動(dòng)；政策和監(jiān)督的協(xié)調(diào)。19941997:建立European System of Central Banks (ESCB)19971999:建立獨(dú)立的歐洲中央銀行和發(fā)行統(tǒng)一的歐洲