化工-行業(yè)周報：9月制造業(yè)PMI重回景氣萬華等上調(diào)MDI掛牌價TDI、金屬硅、黃磷價格持續(xù)上漲

證券研究報告工7.483.76工昆股份3.92技0.701.13金禾實(shí)業(yè)3.322.575.932.542.902.99斯特3.843.15相關(guān)報告《【興證化工】基礎(chǔ)化工行業(yè)周NMP產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈、氨基酸價格普漲，雙酚A、吡唑醚菌酯、鄰/對硝基氯化苯、橡膠助劑價格走高(20220919-20220925)》hangzhiyangxyzqcomcnS03勛iumenglanxyzqcomcnSTDI、金屬硅、黃磷價格持續(xù)上漲投資要點(diǎn)下，化工品作為地產(chǎn)鏈重要中上游環(huán)節(jié)，相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈需求有望隨地產(chǎn)PMI張區(qū)間。9制造業(yè)PMI為50.1%(月環(huán)比+0.7pcts)，指數(shù)水平踏上榮枯線以及制造業(yè)進(jìn)入傳統(tǒng)旺季，新訂單指數(shù)連續(xù)兩月回升。(2)新出口訂單+0.3pcts)，均處于收縮區(qū)間。(3)主要原材料購進(jìn)價格指數(shù)和出廠價格活躍。購進(jìn)價格與出廠價格之間的差值為-4.2%，原材料價格漲幅較大，企業(yè)的成本壓力有所增加。(4)大型企業(yè)PMI為51.1%(月環(huán)比+0.6pcts)，處于擴(kuò)張區(qū)間；中、小型企業(yè)PMI分別為49.7%和48.3%(月環(huán)比分別+0.8pcts和+0.7pcts)，中小型企業(yè)的景氣水平均有。掛牌價19800元/噸(環(huán)比+2300元/噸)；純MDI掛牌價23000元/噸(環(huán)比+2000元/噸)。根據(jù)百川與隆眾資訊，萬華化學(xué)9月份聚合MDI結(jié)算價15600元/噸(桶裝承兌，環(huán)比+200元/噸)；上海亨斯邁2022年10月聚合MDI對分銷市場掛牌價格為21000元/噸(環(huán)比噸(環(huán)比+3000元/噸)。市場價方面，本周聚合MDI(華東)和純MDI(華東)價格分別為17200元/噸(環(huán)比+1.2%)和20900元/噸(環(huán)風(fēng)險提示：化工產(chǎn)品需求不達(dá)預(yù)期的風(fēng)險，國際油價大幅下跌的風(fēng)險，環(huán)請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明行業(yè)周報請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-2-中國化工品價格指數(shù)(CCPI)：本周CCPI較上周持平，較上月同期產(chǎn)品：美國N.Y.Hub現(xiàn)貨，+43%；PTMEG(1800)，雙碳”目標(biāo)背景下，身處規(guī)范化重點(diǎn)園區(qū)、持續(xù)穩(wěn)定的資本開支等優(yōu)勢的領(lǐng)先企業(yè)將持續(xù)受益，強(qiáng)者恒強(qiáng)格局持續(xù)強(qiáng)化。特別是站在當(dāng)前時點(diǎn)，化企龍頭在基本面緩慢恢復(fù)的背景下，估值已跌至較低水平，以龍頭公司周期底部業(yè)績測算來看，該估值仍具有工產(chǎn)業(yè)格局重塑關(guān)鍵力量，萬華化學(xué)、華魯恒升、揚(yáng)農(nóng)化工等?；a(chǎn)業(yè)鏈、規(guī)模化與技術(shù)領(lǐng)先實(shí)現(xiàn)的成本優(yōu)勢、持續(xù)穩(wěn)定的資本開支等工產(chǎn)業(yè)格局重塑的關(guān)鍵力量(萬華化學(xué)、華魯恒升、揚(yáng)農(nóng)化工等)。一速產(chǎn)品價格與價差的修復(fù)。建議關(guān)注桐昆股份、新鳳鳴。農(nóng)作物的種植面積將提升，農(nóng)化產(chǎn)品將受益海外需求增長。我們認(rèn)為，當(dāng)前海外雖受到通脹影響，但是農(nóng)化產(chǎn)品具備資源+剛需特性，2022年全球農(nóng)化景氣周期有望持續(xù)。從農(nóng)化產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈看，磷肥原材料磷礦石價格尚處高位，磷礦-磷肥一體化企業(yè)受益，建議關(guān)注磷礦資源優(yōu)勢企業(yè)云天化、川恒股份、川發(fā)龍蟒、興發(fā)集團(tuán)。農(nóng)藥方面，安環(huán)收緊下農(nóng)藥行業(yè)集中度逐漸提高，頭部企業(yè)新一輪產(chǎn)能投放在即，我們建議關(guān)注農(nóng)藥行業(yè)內(nèi)具備領(lǐng)先工程化技術(shù)、原研藥研發(fā)及推廣實(shí)力的原藥企：揚(yáng)農(nóng)化工、利爾化學(xué)、江山股份；制劑：潤豐股份；農(nóng)藥中間體：聯(lián)化科技。著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激退潮，原料需求邊際回落，其價格有望持續(xù)降低。海運(yùn)端，2022年以來，海運(yùn)供需錯配緩解，全球海運(yùn)費(fèi)出現(xiàn)明顯回落，未盈利水平有望迎來持續(xù)改善，國內(nèi)頭部企業(yè)產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)張迅速，搶占全球市場請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-3-份額，有望迎來行業(yè)修復(fù)與自身成長的共振，投資布局價值凸顯。重點(diǎn)、19600元/噸，為10600元/噸，環(huán)比-0.47%。海運(yùn)端，中國-美東/中國-美西/中國-歐洲段執(zhí)行，沸石、蜂窩陶瓷等相關(guān)產(chǎn)品有望持續(xù)放量。關(guān)注動力電池電解液龍頭天賜材料、新宙邦，正極材料龍頭當(dāng)升科技，光伏膠膜全球龍頭化工新材料原創(chuàng)技術(shù)平臺昊華科技，國內(nèi)領(lǐng)先的半導(dǎo)體光刻膠龍頭彤程新材，貫通芯片制造、封裝的電子材料平臺型公司雅克科技，催化材料領(lǐng)先企業(yè)國瓷材料、萬潤股份，風(fēng)電葉片固化劑細(xì)分領(lǐng)域龍頭阿科力、濮陽惠成。維檢修；甘肅銀光、巨力化工煙臺3+5萬噸裝置延續(xù)停車；其他主流裝置平穩(wěn)運(yùn)行。海外方面，德國巴斯夫(30萬噸)裝置停車時短期內(nèi)無法重啟(11月底之前)，匈牙利寶思德、沙特陶氏裝置均出?EVA價格上漲。供給方面，揚(yáng)子巴斯夫裝置恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)，其他企業(yè)裝置請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-4-醇?下游采購積極，電石價格上漲。根據(jù)百川資訊，供給方面，西北地區(qū)電石供應(yīng)量下降，主產(chǎn)地寧夏、內(nèi)蒙古地區(qū)因疫情管控運(yùn)輸受限。需求漲2.0%至3835元/噸。需本減少。企業(yè)考慮到限電等因素儲備金屬硅庫存，行業(yè)內(nèi)現(xiàn)貨減少。需求次限電中多數(shù)黃磷企業(yè)于9月25號開始降負(fù)荷生產(chǎn)。根據(jù)百川盈孚測投資策略?海外政策收緊致需求邊際走弱，國內(nèi)新產(chǎn)能投產(chǎn)在即，周期景氣或回/貨幣政策通道，美國耐用品消費(fèi)已出現(xiàn)拐點(diǎn)；短期內(nèi)國內(nèi)政策托底經(jīng)請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-5-濟(jì)“穩(wěn)增長”，在“房住不炒”大背景下，地產(chǎn)相關(guān)化工品修復(fù)或相對加息后海外需求的邊際下滑。綜合來看，化工品需求壓力較大，化纖等非耐用品相關(guān)化工品需求或好于耐用品相關(guān)化工品；供給方面，歷經(jīng)近我們認(rèn)為2022年下半年化工品普遍性的景氣或難再現(xiàn)，投資主線應(yīng)聚焦于盈利確定性較高的品種。綜上，把握2022年下半年化工行業(yè)投資內(nèi)在市場化定價機(jī)制，疊加成品油組分價值鏈支撐，高油價并不影響煉油利潤；當(dāng)前行業(yè)處底部區(qū)間，后續(xù)存修復(fù)預(yù)期。長絲方面，行業(yè)集中度提升帶動龍頭單噸盈利中樞上移，前期需求遭受不可抗力致行業(yè)短期滌綸長絲；?成本回落帶來盈利修復(fù)確定性，產(chǎn)業(yè)趨勢醞釀行業(yè)發(fā)展機(jī)遇：新材料C能源產(chǎn)業(yè)配套完備，新材料不斷革新助力下游制造降本增效；“雙碳”利修復(fù)。長遠(yuǎn)看，國內(nèi)龍頭憑高性價比優(yōu)勢不斷搶占全球市場份額，未?通脹背景下，需求剛需與供給減少帶來行業(yè)景氣可持續(xù)的確定性：農(nóng)科技、賽輪輪胎、國瓷材料、華峰化學(xué)、中國巨石、聯(lián)化科技、天賜材衛(wèi)星化學(xué)。請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-6-的風(fēng)險。請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-7- 錄 請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-8- 3、滌綸庫存(天) -33-4、錦綸庫存(天) -34-5、粘膠庫存(天) -34- 請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-9- 請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-10- 行業(yè)周報請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明表1、重點(diǎn)跟蹤化工產(chǎn)品價格與價差期漲幅指數(shù)---2022/10/070.0%%%人民幣對美元匯率(中間價)2022/10/07099809980.0%9200982.7%742人民幣對歐元匯率(中間價)---2022/10/078928920.0%4590.6%20022.9%2022/10/070.5%%3.5%74SP--2022/10/079.665.623.234067.364677.032%現(xiàn)貨價2022/10/07%%---2022/10/070792%0594%83.7%2022/10/070.0%9%--2022/10/079649870.5%%.0%445.0%2022/10/07644974.7%902022/10/079284.5%2022/10/077225442022/10/0767.8%.0%712022/10/07265766%5504%2022/10/079.6%372022/10/07492492022/10/075434.7%20.3%原油2022/10/078814.2%.9%51.7%口2022/10/07327.8%.9%912022/10/070.3%0.0%815.2%2022/10/0729203305590.3%30774%271910.5%178512.7%2022/10/0737.7%128.7%5.853%2022/10/077555.8%9930.6%36997.8%2022/10/07.82368.7%364.6%9660.9%2022/10/072%8498.6%62022/10/077929.7%4.779.3%82022/10/0728122022/10/070.0%0.0%.0%2022/10/070.0%0.0%%52022/10/07458198.4%2022/10/07120.2%26.6%95.3%煉油2022/10/073.3%)2022/10/07%2.3%43.0%2022/10/070.0%2.5%%3.3%2022/10/070.0%2.7%6.3%1.0%2022/10/070.0%2.9%9.6%26.8%2022/10/0771710.0%7762352022/10/074.9%2.3%6.3%請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-12-丙烷(華東冷凍丙烷(華東冷凍CFR)丁烷(華東冷凍CFR)山東)油(150SN,東北)58#半煉石蠟(華南)58#半煉石蠟(華南)2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07.6%04.7%000.0%2.5%-4.8%2022/10/070.0%.0%2022/10/070.0%%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07%3.3%50-3.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%3.4%2022/10/070.0%0.0%02022/10/07000.6%00.0%0-3.8%25.5%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/078408400.6%940092500.0%.0%47.6%2022/10/070.0%40033.8%2022/10/0742.25-30.8%69.7337.9%67.9237.5%09.062022/10/070752.0%59.3%57.7%40.6%2022/10/0731.9%38.6%20.3%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/0764.02498.4806.76.2527.7%.8135.9%.86.2%60.6%2%275.0%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/0754.3133.7270.4%32.3%30.6%5043.0%36.6%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/0759513.685204.4635.37635.0%32.0%41.0%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/0744.8321.600033.7%10.47612%78.109.442%79.9%31.9%37.5%2.3%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07907.468.0%7.129.7%3.84.0%9203.9%43.0%9.8%%2022/10/07550.0%11644.90%2022/10/0730600.8%602.5%90%氣2022/10/0777.0%3278.0%便士/Therm2022/10/072.7%74%2.6%2022/10/070646.8%52.3%33%2022/10/074.1743.4%30.3%854%2022/10/070.5%3.368549.5%7.19-27.8%2022/10/070.580.590.0%0.351.22.0%3.862022/10/0731.3%2022/10/0750047764274.0%2022/10/0700.0%04.3%041.2%英尺2022/10/076774.3%74945-2.8%煤Q500,晉城)煤(Q5500,山西優(yōu)混)Q5500,環(huán)渤海指數(shù))原)2022/10/070.0%0.0%.0%7.8%2022/10/070.0%2.5%.6%2022/10/070.0%0.0%0.3%2022/10/0700000.0%000.0%000.0%請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-13-焦油(華東)華東))氣化焦(山西)煤價差2022/10/07000.0%2.5%9043.2%2022/10/07000.0%009504%2022/10/0790900.0%63.7%900.0%902022/10/074763%504.0%63%35%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/0750504.9%90504.9%700.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%草酸(山東)2022/10/074292304.7%3032.9%335.2%2022/10/079509500.0%9500.0%9500.0%尿素(山東)2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/075308300.7%00070080.6%5104.2%0.0%2.0%聚氰胺(四川)(華東)2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/070500500.0%559.9%03002%0.0%4.2%28.8%銨(河南)鈉(華東)2022/10/07000.0%00.0%00.0%0.0%2022/10/07000.0%00.0%02.9%0%)2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07503023.3%2023.7%6026.5%0.0%0.0%3.6%華魯)甲胺(華魯)2022/10/070.0%0.0%0.0%500-42.8%2022/10/075.9%5.9%5.9%50022.0%MF)2022/10/077.9%09.9%21.9%50.3%2022/10/070000041.3%)華東)2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/073.6%3.6%003.3%02%0.0%.0%38.5%PVA,四川維尼綸)華東)2022/10/070.0%0.0%6002022/10/07000.0%05華東)2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07000.0%00.0%00.7%28.6%0.0%0.0%4.8%.8%河南)2022/10/072502500.0%2500.0%2500.0%2022/10/071001000.0%1000.0%1000.0%02022/10/07---4%2022/10/07%94煤制草酸價差2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07224.8%6%54.7%92000.0%0.8%2022/10/076.5%0.9%5933.5%尿素-液氨價差2022/10/07.7%0.6%636.5%51.0%聚氰胺-尿素價差2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/070.0%-20.8%銨-液氨價差.7%.7%%2022/10/0743.9%%21.6%請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-14-醇-液氨價差-甲醇-液氨價差DMF液氨價差價差價差PVA甲醇價差2022/10/0770.9%264.7%-2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07577.6%87.9%093.6%-2.8%4.6%2022/10/0767.7%3563.0%2022/10/0788330.3%22438.7%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07.7%000.3%5873863.0%-23.8%31.9%36.3%2022/10/07243%15124%02%2022/10/073832.6%553.6%0884%2022/10/07080%2022/10/07377.3%8-319.8%29.2%-2445.8%2022/10/0742274634-8.8%4745512235602022/10/070.0%5.3%5.3%5.3%(華東)2022/10/07000.0%00.0%00.0%00.7%2022/10/07000.0%00.0%00.0%00.0%2022/10/0703.3%0.0%2022/10/0746924.3%37.6%62022/10/079151%900.0%54-乙烯價差2022/10/070.0%.8%00(華東)SAP,華南)華東)烷(華東)NPG-丙烯價差2022/10/070.0%%08.5%2022/10/070.0%0.6%2022/10/07000.0%02.7%04.3%0%2022/10/070.0%4.3%%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07000.0%004.7%025.6%0.0%2.9%2.0%40.0%2022/10/07000.0%003.5%4%2022/10/070.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07000.0%00.0%025.9%0.0%3.8%26.0%2022/10/07000.0%002.9%028.6%2022/10/07000.0%0%.2%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07000.0%00-42.8%0.0%0.5%2022/10/07000.0%00.0%00.0%39.9%2022/10/070.0%%%27.3%2022/10/070.0%27.8%79.6%2022/10/07274%728.6%2022/10/07660.0%46.9%4326.4206請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-15-碳酸二甲酯/丙二醇聯(lián)產(chǎn)價差2022/10/077.5%57.3%2022/10/070.0%2221.6%82%2022/10/074646.954774.6.7%4545.9.2%%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07330.0%944.0%2-SAP烯酸價差0.0%4.6%.7%2022/10/07000.0%0857033.9%2022/10/075425.0%00.5NPG價差2022/10/07220.0%80.8%50.9%碳四原料氣(齊魯石化)油(華東)酐(華東)MTBE勝華)醇醇(98%,湖北宜化)MAA)MMA)油-碳四原料氣價差酐-碳四原料氣價差2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/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