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10June2022
EquityResearch
Global|Europe|UnitedKingdom
GlobalEquityStrategy
Sectors:addtoluxuryandrenewablesand
otherchanges
InvestmentStrategy|Strategy
Amonthago,westartedtoaddtocyclicalsforthefirsttimesinceJuly2021(seeCyclicalsrevisited:somechanges,5May).Asofnow,thepriceratioofcyclicalstodefensivesisdiscountingaPMIof52inEurope.Weexpectittofalltoc45.
Weraiseluxurytobenchmark(fromunderweight):ItisaChina-opening-upbeneficiary,withc40%ofenddemandbeingChinese(wherepolicyhasbecomemorestimulatory,andwethinkChinawillfocusonconsumption/infrastructure);valuationsarebacktoneutrallevels(havingbeenveryexpensive)forasectorthathasstructuralgrowthwithhighbarrierstoentry;andwealth-to-incomeratiosarestillveryhighintheUS(supportingluxury).CShasOutperformratingsonLVMH,Puma,Swatch.
Weaddtoouroverweightinutilitiesviarenewables:Fromamacroperspective,EuropeanutilitiestendtooutperformwhenPMIsfall,anditistypicallythebestperformingsectorwhentheyieldcurveflattens(whichitshoulddofromhere).Thereisabigpolicytailwind,withbothenergyindependenceanddecarbonisationhelpingthissectorbecomemoregrowth-likethaninthepast.ValuationslookreasonableonFCF(10%onmaintenancecapex)anddividendyieldrelatives.Fallingindustrialcommodityprices(fromrecentpeaks)helpmargins.Apeakinfossilfuelpriceswouldalsopotentiallyhelptoreducethepoliticalpressureonutilities.OurEuropeanUtilitiesteam’stoppicksare:Acciona,Enel,RWE.
Wereduceregulatedutilitiestobenchmark:ValuationsonP/EandP/RABareatall-timehighs.WethinkEuropeanandUKinflationexpectations,unliketheUS,arenowrealistic(UKandItalianregulatedutilitieshaveindex-linkedreturns).UKwaterstockshavecaughtupwithindex-linkedbonds,andwealsoseeariskofincreasedpoliticalpressureonwaterstocks.
Wetakeindustrialgasesdowntobenchmark,primarilyonvaluation(theP/ErelativetogrowthandtheP/ErelativetoEuropeanmarketsareclosetoall-timehighs);thesectorisdefensivebutdiscountinga-c10ptfallinPMIs.
Weslightlylowerouroverweightinbig-cappharmabecausewethinkmostoftheriseincommoditypricesisbehindus(pharmawasthekeydefensivewinnerfromthis)andpharmaisnowdiscountingalargefallinPMIscloseto40.Whystilloverweight?i)Pharmaisthebiggestdollarearner(andwecanseethedollargettingclosetoparitywiththeeuro);ii)ittendstobethebestperformingsectorwhencreditspreadsrise(aspharmaarelowlyleveraged);iii)valuationslookreasonable(unlikeregulatedutilities,industrialgases,orfoodproducerswhereP/Erelativesareclosetooratall-timehighs);iv)itrankswellonourscorecard(2ndoveralland1stonfundamentals—betterthansemis);v)earningsrevisionsarebetterthanthemarket’s;andvi)weseelittlepoliticalpressureondrugpricesneartermintheUS.OurEuropeanPharmateam’stoppicksareSanofiandAstraZeneca.
Weareunderweightfoodproducers:P/Erelativesareatall-timehighs,GEMexposureisproblematicasfoodpricesriseandthedollarrises(theyhavethebiggestexposuretoGEMofanymajorsector),thepriceelasticityofdemandisprobablyhigherthannormalbecauseofthegrowthofprivatelabel,andearningsrevisionsareworsethanthemarket’s.
Germanrealestate:smalloverweight:P/Brelativetothemarketisbackatrecessionlevels.ThesectorispricinginaBundyieldof2.3%(thisistoohigh).Wedonotseerealestatepricesfallingsignificantly(asisbeingdiscountedbyshareprices),giventherentalyieldisstillabovethemortgagerate.
Mining:Wekeepasmalloverweight(seenoteof5May).
ResearchAnalysts
AndrewGarthwaite
442078836477
andrew.garthwaite@
RobertGriffiths
442078838885
robert.griffiths@
AsimAli
442078832480
asim.ali@
MarcelKoussa
442078833896
marc.elkoussa@
AndjelaBozinovic
442078837364
andjela.bozinovic@
DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.
10June2022
GlobalEquityStrategy2
TableofContents
Keycharts3
Sectors:addtoluxuryandrenewables4
Luxury:uptobenchmarkfromunderweight
5
Strongoverweightutilities:Weaddabittorenewablesbutreduceregulatedutilities
10
Whyweaddtorenewables10
Whattobuy?16
Wewouldreducethewatercompaniesandregulatedutilitiestobenchmark18
Industrialgases:downtobenchmark
20
Big-cappharma:reduceoverweight
22
Weslightlyreduceouroverweightforthreereasons:22
Whyarewestilloverweight?24
Germanrealestate:smalloverweight
29
Foodproducers:increaseunderweight
34
Appendix
39
10June2022
GlobalEquityStrategy
Keycharts
Figure1:ThePErelofluxuryischeapvsstaples
210
EuropeanLuxury12mfwdPErelConsumerstaples
190Average(+/-1stdev)
170
150
130
110
90
70200220042007200920122014201720192022
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisse
Figure3:Renewablesearningsrevisionsareimproving
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
Eurrenewablesrelperf,%yoychgrhs
EuropeanRenewables3mbreadthrelMarket
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-30.0%-60
20012004200720102013201620192022
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisse
Figure2:Utilitiesperformwellwhentheyieldcurveflattens
80.0%
60.0%
40.0%
20.0%
0.0%
-20.0%
-40.0%
-60.0%
Retailers
Autos
Telecoms
Media
Banks
HHGoods
Constr.Mats.
Beverages
FoodProd.
Pulp&Paper
Pharma
Cons.Dur.
Software
Insurance
Tobacco
Tech.Hardware
Transport
Energy
CapGoods
Med.Equip.
Mining
Semis
Hotels
Chemicals
RealEstate
DivFin.
Utils
AverageEuropeansectorcorrelationtoyieldcurve(2s10s)
whenthe2yisrisingfasterthanthe10y
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisse
Figure4:Industrialgasstockslookexpensive
2MSCICont.Europeanindustrialgas,12mfwdPErelative
Average(+/-1s.d.)
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
2007
2009
2011
2012
2014
2016
2020
2022
2018
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisse
Figure5:Thewaterstocks’multipleisupwithevents
-4
-3
2.2
UKwaterstocks12mfwdPErelmktInflation-linkedgilt,rhs,inv
2
1.8
-2
1.6
-1
1.4
0
1.2
1
1
2
0.8
0.6
0.42000
3
4
20022005200820112013201620192022
Figure6:EuropeanPharmaisnowpricingPMIsat40
75
55
35
15
-5
-25
-45
Europeanpharmapricerelmarket,%chgy/y
EuroareaPMImanufacturingneworders,rhs,Inverted
17
27
37
47
57
67
2000
2004
2008
2013
2017
2022
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisse
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisse
10June2022
GlobalEquityStrategy
Sectors:addtoluxuryandrenewables
InearlyMay(Cyclicalsrevisited:somechanges,5May),weaddedtocyclicals(i.e.reducingthe
sizeofourunderweight).Rightnowwefindthepriceratioofnon-financialcyclicalsto
defensivesisdiscountingaPMIneworderofaround52inEurope(equatingtoc1%GDPYoY
inEurope),whereaswethinkPMInewordersfallto45.Thisismuchmorerealisticthanused
tobethecase,inourview,thoughitisstillnotlowenough.Wefoundthatcyclicalsnormally
troughedwhenPMIstroughed(andwewouldexpectthetroughtobeinlatesummer).
Additionally,cyclicalswerenotcheaponourfavouredmeasureofP/Bwhichadjustsforthe
cycle.
Figure7:Cyclicalsarepricingin52onPMIs
Europecyclicalsexfin,extechreldefensives
82%
77%
72%
67%
62%
57%
52%
EuroareaPMImanufacturingneworders,rhs
73
66
59
52
45
38
31
24
17
20002003200620092012201520182022
Source:Markit,Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
Figure8:CyclicalsremainexpensiveonP/Brelatives
EuropeanCyclicals(extechexfin)
97%rel.todefensives:PB
avg(+-stdv)
87%
77%
67%
57%
47%
37%
1994199820012004200720102013201620192022
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
Cyclicalshavebounced(theyarenolongersooversold),andourstancehasbeentoaddto
cyclicalsincheapareas(constructionmaterials,automations,withasmalloverweightinbanks
andmining)buttoremainunderweightoverall.Inthisnotewereviewsomedefensiveareasas
wellasaddingtoluxury.
Figure9:Cyclicalsarenolongersooversold
Deviationfrom6mmovingaverage
19.0%
EuropeancyclicalsextechvsdefensiveAvg(+-1stdv)
14.0%
9.0%
4.0%
-1.0%
-6.0%
-11.0%
-16.0%
-21.0%
19972001200420082011201520182022
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
10June2022
GlobalEquityStrategy
Luxury:uptobenchmarkfromunderweight
1.IthasperformedverypoorlythisyearrelativetotheotherChinaplays.
Thiswassomethingofacatch-downfromitsearlierstrongoutperformance.
Figure10:Europeanluxuryisamongtheworst-performingChina-exposedsectors
thisyear
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
relPanEurope(YTDperf)
capgoods
Europeanluxury
Europeanchinaexposed
Europeanmining
GermanAutos
70
Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
2.WebelievethatChinaPMIswillpickupasthecountryopensup.
Chinaisthekeydriverforluxurywitharound40%oftotaldemandcomingfromChina(and
moreofincrementaldemand).Fromhere,weexpectChinaPMIstotroughandChinatoease
policymoreandtoopenup.Thereisevidenceatlastthatzero-COVIDisworking.Moreover,as
wepreviouslyhighlighted,ifitdoesnotwork,wethinkapossiblesolutionthecountrymight
considerwouldbemandatoryvaccinationforover60yearsold(wherethevaccinationrateis
c60%withaboosterjab)andimportingforeignMRNAvaccine.HongKongUniversityhas
highlightedveryhighefficacyusingtheChinesevaccines(aslongastherehasbeenabooster
jab)andourpharmateambelievesFosanhasthecapacitytoquicklyproduce1bndosesof
PfizerMRNAvaccinesifitwerelicensed.Moreover,bySeptemberitappearsthataneffective
anti-viraldrugwillbeavailable.
Figure11:NBSandMarkitnewordersarenowrecovering
65ChinaManufacturingPMIneworders(averageofNBSandMarkit)
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
2005
2007
2009
2011
2015
2017
2019
2022
2013
Source:Markit,Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
Figure12:Zero-COVIDnowappearstobeworking
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
3/1/22
3/5/22
3/9/22
3/13/22
4/6/22
4/10/22
4/30/22
5/4/22
5/8/22
5/12/22
5/16/22
4/14/22
4/18/22
4/22/22
4/26/22
28,000
24,000
20,000
16,000
28-Mar:Shanghai
lockdown
12,000
14-Mar:Changchun
lockdown
17-May:alldistricts
inShanghai
reachedzero
14-Apr:Jillinprovince
reachedzerocommunityspread
8,000
community
spread
07-Mar:Jilinlockdown
27-Apr:Jilincity,Changchunremovedlockdowngradually
4,000
0
3/17/22
3/21/22
3/25/22
3/29/22
4/2/22
Changchun
Jilincity
Shanghai(RHS)
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
10June2022
GlobalEquityStrategy
CurrentconsumptionshareofGDPdifferenceto
20yaverage
EstoniaJapanLatviaMexico
Moreeasingofpolicyappearstobeontheway.Thecombinationofanincreaseinspecialbond
issuance,transferstolocalgovernmentsandcorporatetaxrebatesamountstonearly3%of
GDP(seethe6thJunenoteofourChinaeconomistDavidWangformoredetailsChina:How
does2022fiscalspendingcomparetothat).Averysharpriseinspecialbondissuancetends
toprecedeanaccelerationofgrowth.Wethinksuchaneasingisgenerallyhighlypolitically
desirableaheadofthe20thCPCinNovember.
Figure13:TSFgrowthseemstobeatatrough
15%
14%
13%
12%
11%
10%
9%
RMBloangrowth,PBOC
TSFgrowth,PBOC
Jan-16
Apr-17
Jul-18
Jan-21
Apr-22
Oct-19
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
ItisalsoobviousthatChinesegrowthhastobeconsumer-drivengivenofGDPissolowcomparedtonearlyeveryothermajorOECDcountry.focusonconsumervouchersandinfrastructureprojects.
Figure15:China’sconsumershareofGDPisverylow
Figure14:Specialbondissuanceisexpectedtopickup
sharply
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Newspecialbondissuance(RMBbn),cumulative
2020
2021
2022
2022CSForecast
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Source:CreditSuisseChinaEconomics
thattheconsumershare
Weexpectpolicyto
12%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%
-6%
Egypt(83%,8.1%)
Malaysia
HongKong
SaudiArabia
IndiaBrazil
ChileArgentina
RussiaIndoneiUS
ChinaFrancouthAfricaPhilippines
Thailand
KoreaGermanyLithuania
Poland
Hungary
Bulgaria
Turkey
37%47%57%67%77%
CurrentconsumptionshareofGDP
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
3.SomesignsthatChinesepropertymightbegettingnoworse,andifanything
luxuryhasperformedworsethanpropertydevelopers.
80%ofChina’swealthcomesfromrealestate.Wewouldexpectthemonthonmonthfallin
propertypricestoslowonthebackpolicysupport(i.e.,easingofregulationanddown
payments)andthecutinthe5y-LPR(i.e.lowermortgagerate).Yearonyearpricesarestillup.
OurChinaQuantitativeInsightsreportsshowsignsofanemergingturningpointinresidential
property.Normallythereisaclosecorrelationbetweenrealestatedevelopersandluxury.
Figure16:Chinesehousepricesarestillupyearonyear(70citiesaverage,onRefinitivdata)
1.00.20.0-0.2-0.4
China70citieshouseprice
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Month-on-month Year-on-year,rhs
201720182019202020212022
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
Figure17:EuropeanluxuryseemstohavedecoupledfromtheChinesedevelopers
50
MSCIChinarealestaterel.toMSCIChina,6mchange%
Europeanluxuryrel.toMSCIEurope,yoy,6mchange%
-40
201220142016201820202022
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
4.Valuationsarenowmiddling.
P/Erelativesagainstthemarketarenowneutral.Thesectorisnowmarginallycheapagainst
theothermajorbrandedconsumerarea,namelyconsumerstaples.
Figure18:Luxurygoods12mforwardP/Erelativetothemarketisnowbacktoneutrallevels
250EuropeanLuxury12mfwdPErelmkt
Average(+/-1stdev)
230
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
50
200220042007200920122014201720192022
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
Figure19:Comparedwithotherconsumer-brandedsectors,luxuryisslightlycheap
210
EuropeanLuxury12mfwdPErelConsumerstaples
190Average(+/-1stdev)
170
150
130
110
90
70200220042007200920122014201720192022
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
10June2022
GlobalEquityStrategy
5.Assetpriceperformancestillapositive.
UShouseholdwealthtoincomeisstillwayabovetrend(evenadjustingforcurrentequityprices).
Equitypriceswouldneedtofallnearlyanother25%-30%forthistofallbacktotrend.This
shouldsupportluxurydemand.
Figure20:Householdnetwealthtoincomeisstillveryhigh
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
Householdsnetworth%ofdisposableincome
199820012004200620092012201520182021
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
6.Performancehasbeenworsethanearningsrevisions.
Figure21:Luxuryrelativeearningsrevisionshaverolledover
EuropeanLuxurygoodsperfrelmkt,y/y%chg
70
EuropeanLuxury3mearningbreadthrelmkt,rhs
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
2002200420062008201020132015201720192022
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
7.Luxury:astrongstrategicstory.
Risingmiddleclassesinemergingmarketstendtoseekitemsofconspicuousconsumption
tohighlighttheirenhancedeconomicstatus.Therefore,tosomeextentluxuryoffers
exposuretotheindustrialisation/urbanisationofemergingmarkets,whichhasmuchfurther
togo.
10June2022
GlobalEquityStrategy
Figure22:Urbanpopulationas%oftotalpopulation
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Urbanpopulationas%oftotalpopulation
Brazil
Germany
China
Indonesia
India
UnitedStates
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
Moreover,luxuryisveryhardtodis-intermediate,andmanyluxurybrandscanactasa
storeofvalue(e.g.high-endCartierwatches).Forexample,PatekPhilippeisoneofonlya
fewbrandstohaveexistedforover150yearsandhaspartlybeenastoreofvalue(prices
haverisenmorethaninflation).
Leveragetendstobelow.
Insomeinstances,therearemeaningfulproductionconstraints,givingsignificantpricingpowertotheproducer.
Wetrytoproxybrandvaluebylookingatenterprisevalueless(inflation-adjusted)netassetmarketvalueofinvestmentsandminorityinterestsasashareofEV,whichshowstheluxurysectorisabletogeneratesignificantvaluewithrelativelylowlevelsofinvestment.
Figure23:Theluxurysectorhashighbrandvalue
90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
EVlessnetassets,marketvalueofinvestmentsandminorityinterest,%EV
Technology
Tobacco
Luxury
Pers&HHGoods
Food&Bev
HealthCare
Retail
IndsGds&Svs
Chemicals
Travel&Leis
Media
Con&Mat
Auto&Parts
Telecom
BasicResource
Oil&Gas
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
Figure24:Thesectorhasverylittleleverage
90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
CommSvs
Utilities
Cons.Discretionary
Energy
Cons.Staples
Industrials
Materials
Healthcare
Luxury
IT
PanEursectors-Netdebttomktcap
Market
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
10June2022
GlobalEquityStrategy
Retailers
Autos
Telecoms
Media
Banks
HHGoods
Constr.Mats.
Beverages
FoodProd.
Pulp&Paper
Pharma
Cons.Dur.
Software
Insurance
Tobacco
Tech.Hardware
Transport
Energy
CapGoods
Med.Equip.
Mining
Semis
Hotels
Chemicals
RealEstate
DivFin.
Utils
Figure25:EuropeanLuxurynameswhichCSratesOutperform
Name
FCFYeild
---
Abs
--P/E(12mfwd)------
reltomkt%
above/below
average
relto
Industry
------P/B-------
reltomkt%
Absabove/belowaverage
2022e,%
FCYDY
HOLT
Price,%
changeto
best
2022eMomentum,%
3mEPS3mSales
Consensusrecommendation(1=Buy;5=Sell)
CreditSuisse
rating
Outperform
TheSwatchGroup
8.0%
13.2
90%
-26%
1.1
-54%
6.4
3.1
-9.6
-5.6
-1.4
2.3
Kering
4.0%
14.7
101%
-13%
4.6
-1%
6.2
2.9
48.7
5.0
6.7
2.1
Outperform
Lvmh
3.7%
21.1
144%
0%
6.3
21%
4.1
1.9
4.2
4.1
3.1
2.0
Outperform
Puma
3.4%
22.0
151%
-29%
4.4
-3%
4.4
1.3
35.0
-5.3
2.3
1.9
Outperform
Source:IBES,MSCI,HOLT,Refinitiv,CreditSuisseestimates
Strongoverweightutilities:Weaddabittorenewables
butreduceregulatedutilities
Whyweaddtorenewables
1.Macrosupports
i.UtilitiesareoneofbestperformingsectorswhentheyieldcurveflattensandPMIsfall.
FromherewewouldexpecttheyieldcurvetoflattenandPMIstorollover.Utilitiestendsto
benefitfromthat.
Figure26:Utilitiesisthebestperformingsectorwhentheyieldcurveflattens
AverageEuropeansectorcorrelationtoyieldcurve(2s10s)whenthe2yisrisingfasterthanthe10y
80.0%
60.0%
40.0%
20.0%
0.0%
-20.0%
-40.0%
-60.0%
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
Figure27:UtilitiestendstooutperformwhenPMIsfall
EuroareaPMImanufacturingneworders
70
-30
EuropeanUtilitiespricerelmarket,(%chgy/y)rhs,inv
65
-20
60
-10
0
55
10
50
20
45
30
40
35
40
199920042008201320172022
Source:Markit,Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
ii.Theheadwindofrisingrealbondyieldsdiminishes.
WecanseethatutilitieshavethehighestleverageofanysectorandthattypicallyiftheTIPS
yieldfalls,thenutilitiesoutperform.WethinkthattheTIPSyieldisclosetoitspeak.
10June2022
GlobalEquityStrategy
Figure28:WhenTIPSyieldsfall,utilitiestendtoperformbetter
23
18
13
8
3
-2
-7
-12
-17
Europeanutilitesreltomarket,6m%chg
US10-yearTIPSyields,6mchg,rhs,inv.
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2014
2017
2019
2022
2012
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
Figure29:Utilities,particularlytheregulatedsubsector,remainahighlyfinanciallyleveredsector
RegulatedUtilities
Auto&Parts
Non-regulatedUtilities
Food&Bev
Telecom
Chemicals
Retail
IndsGds&Svs
Media
HealthCare
Pharma
Oil&Gas
ConsPrd&Svcs
Mining
6
EuropesectorNetdebt/EBITDA
5
4
3
2
1
0
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
iii.Thebondtoequitycorrelationisstartingtoturnnegativeagain,thusutilitiesdiversify.
Thedefiningcharacteristicofthiscorrectionhasbeenthatasbondyieldshaverisensoequities
fell.Thishasstartedtochangeinthepastmonth.Thustosomeextentutilitiesnowoffer
diversificationwithinaportfoliocontext.
Figure30:Thebondtoequitycorrelationhasturnednegativeagain
3.1
US10yYield S&P500,rhs
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.7
1.5
1.3Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22
5000
4800
4600
4400
4200
4000
3800
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
Wearealsostartingtoseeinflationexpectationsfallinspiteofoilpricesrising(thisimpliesthat
themarketisseeingapeakininflation).WealsothinkthatEuropeaninflationexpectationsare
nowclosetorealisticlevelsof2.3%(thatisthe5yearrateimpliedin5years’time).
Figure31:Europeaninflationexpectationsarenowfairat2.3%
3
Eurinflationswap5y5yfwd
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2010
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
iv.USutilitiestendtooutperformwhencreditspreadsrise.
Figure33:USutilitiesoutperformwhenIGspreadswiden
Figure32:5yinflationbreakevenshavedecoupledfromthe
energyprice
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
2.42.2
2
Jan-21
May-21Sep-21Jan-22
May-22
Brent5ybreakevens,rhs
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
400
80%
350
60%
300
40%
250
200
20%
150
0%
100
50
-20%
0
IGspreads,bps,rhs
MSCIUSUtilitiesrelmkt,yoy%
-40%2000
-50
2006
2009
2012
2015
2019
2022
2003
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
WecanseebelowbothIGandHYarestillfarremovedfromrecessionlevels(asshowninthe
utilitysection).
10June2022
Figure34:IGspreadsinUSandEuropearestilllowrelativeto
levelsassociatedwitharecession
IGspreads%
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
198819921995199820012004200720102013201620192022
Recession(NBER,US)USEurope
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
Figure35:HYspreadsinUSandEuropearestillwellbelowlevelsassociatedwithrecessionfears
25HYspreads%
20
15
10
5
0
198819921995199820012004200720102013201620192022
Recession(NBER,US)USEurope
Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch
v.Fallingcommoditypricesisapositiveforutilities.
Steelandcopperpriceshavestartedtorollover,andthishelpslowerthecostofbui
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