【麥肯錫】掌握雙重使命：降低碳排放和節(jié)約成本

June2022

OperationsPractice

Masteringthedualmission:Carbonandcostsavings

OEMswillneedtomovequicklytoachievetheir“dual-saving”ambitionofreducingbothtotalproductemissionsandcosts.Alimitedsupplyoflow-carbonmaterialsaddspressuretoactnow.

byJohanBengtsson,ErikDellborg,MikaelHanicke,andYvonneHuemer

?ArturDebat/GettyImages

2Masteringthedualmission:Carbonandcostsavings

Production

40

Inrecentyears,regulationandgrowingconsumerdemandforlow-emissionvehicleshaveturbochargedtheracetodrivedowntailpipeemissions.Now,withsignificantgainsmadetoreducecarbonemissions—andanelectric-vehicle(EV)futureuponus—carmanufacturersneedtolookbeyondthetailpipetodelivergreenercarsatcompetitivecostandareducedcarbonfootprint.

Byturningtheirattentionbacktothedesignprocessandscrutinizingtheend-to-endmanufacturingvaluechain,industryplayershaveanopportunitytocapturethedualbenefitofcarbonandcostsavings.

However,withdemandforlow-carbonmaterialsgrowingfromarangeofindustriesandcompetitors—andglobalsupplyconstrained—automotivefirmswillneedtoactwithspeedtosecuretheirlow-carbonsupplychains.

Thisarticleexploresmaterialsandproductionprocessesasthenextfrontierforcarbonemissionreductions,andthestepsindustryplayerscantakenowtodevelopenvironmentallyfriendlycarsatalowerper-unitcost.

Costandcarbonpressurescontinuetomount

AsEVtechnologyadvancesandglobalmarketsprepareforthephasingoutofinternal-combustion-engine(ICE)vehicles,OEMsfaceasqueezeontheirprofitmargins.EVsaremoreexpensivetomanufacturethanpetrolordieselenginecarsandrequiresubstantialR&Dandcapitalexpenditureinvestments.Notsurprisingly,controloverthecostofeachEVsoldisnowacorecomponentofOEMbusinessmodels.

Atthesametime,sincemid-2020,carmanufacturers’decarbonizationtargetshavebecomeincreasinglyambitious.OEMsaremakingboldcommitmentsbeyondtheirscope1and2emissions,andsomeoftheleadingglobalmanufacturersaresettingstretchingtargetstoreduceemissionsacrosstheentireproductvaluechain.

Theelectrificationofcarsalonewillnotautomaticallyleadtonetzero.Battery-electricvehicles(BEVs)canhaveuptotwicetheamountofproductionemissionscomparedwithICEvehicles—drivenbythecarbonintensityofbatteriesandhighnumberofelectroniccomponents.High-emissionmaterialssuchasaluminumandbattery-activematerialsdriveupemissions,makingvaluechaindecarbonizationessentialforsecuringthenet-positiveCO2benefitsofEVs(Exhibit1).

Exhibit1

Asproductsbecomemoresustainable,productionusuallyaccountsformoreoftheiremissions.

Shiftinlife-cycleCO?emissions,index(100=dieselinternal-combustion-engineemissions)

Operation

20

55

80

Dieselinternal-Battery-electricvehicleBEVoperatedusing

combustionengine(BEV)operatedusingrenewable-powersources

conventionalpowersources

Source:StephanFuchs,“Methodforparameter-basedweightestimationofnewvehicleconcepts,”(doctoraldissertation,TechnicalUniversityofMunich,April29,2014);McKinseyanalysis

Masteringthedualmission:Carbonandcostsavings3

Whiledecarbonizationbeyondthetailpipecanbeakeydifferentiatorwithintheautomotiveindustry,theglobalsupplyoflow-carbonmaterialsiscurrentlylowerthandemand.Supplyislikelytobesqueezedfurtherasmoreindustriesscrambletosecurelow-carbonvaluechainsinthecomingyears.Firmswillneedtoactfasttogetaheadofthecompetitionforsupply.

Pursuingthedualmissionofcostandcarbonsavings

Adaptingtheindustrystandarddesign-to-value(DTV)processtoconsiderallvalueatstake,insteadofcostalone,canhelpcompaniessecurethegreatesttotalvalueandmostattractiveeconomiesovertheentireproductlifecycle.

DTVcombinesdeepinsightsfromthreekeyareas:whatconsumersvalueinproducts;competitiveinsightsintohowothercompaniesdesignofferingstomeetconsumerneeds;andsupplierinsightsintonewtechnologiesandthecosttomanufactureproducts.Theresultisgreaterabilitytotranslatehigh-levelstrategyintodesignchoicesforproductsandservicesaswellastheunderlyingprocessesalongthesupplychain.Theresultinginsightscanleadtodecisionstosimplifytheproductdesignthroughusinglessmaterial,reducethespecificationswherepossible,orinvestigatesmarterdesignsolutions.

Byaddingasustainabilitylenstothisfact-based,multidimensionalapproach,thereimagineddual-missionDTVandcarbonmethodologycouldenableautomotive-industryfirmstouncoveropportunitiesfordecarbonizationacrossthemanufacturingvaluechain.

Fromthismethodology,fourkeyprinciplesemergetoachievecostandcarbonsavingsintheautomotivesector.Ascostreductionisalreadystandardpracticeformanycompanies,thefocushereisonthecarbonreductionaspectoftheapproach.

CreatetransparencyontheCO2baseline.Withcarmanufacturersfacingincreasingscrutinyonthetotalcarbonfootprintoftheirvehicles,understandingtheCO2baselineofavehicleisthecriticalfirststep.ThisincludesadetailedbreakdownofCO2foreachproductalongthevaluechain.

Toofferfulltransparencyintotheprocess,thebaselineincludesCO2emissionsalongtheprimarymaterialproductionprocesses—forexample,mining,smelting,andcastingforaluminum—aswellasthecomponentproductionprocesses,suchasprocessconsumablesandproductionmachinery.Inrimproduction,forexample,smeltingtherawmaterialaccountsfor64percentofthecarbonemitted,whileonly14percentofthecarboncomesfromtheactivitiesoftier-1suppliers(Exhibit2).

Exhibit2

Thebulkofrimproductionemissionsarefromtheprimaryproductionofaluminum.

CO?emissionsforarimsupplier,kilogram(kg)ofCO?perkgofaluminum

25

20

15

10

5

0

Rimproduction

Primaryproductionofaluminum

MiningAluminaAnodeSmeltingCastingProcessProductionTotalCO?

consumablesmachineryemissions

Source:McKinseyCleansheetSolution

4Masteringthedualmission:Carbonandcostsavings

Crucially,manufacturerscannotrelysolelyonsupplierstoprovidethisdetailandmayneedtodevelopthecapabilityinternallytogeneratetheleveloftransparencyrequiredtoarriveatanaccurateCO2baseline.

IdentifyandevaluateCO2levers.Oncecarbon-intensivecomponentsandprocessesareunderstood,anumberofleverscanbeappliedtoaddressthedifferentproductionprocessesthatemitCO2.Leversincludealternativeenergysources,circularitytodecreasewaste,designshiftstoreducetheamountofrawmaterialrequiredormaterialused—forexample,changingfrommagnesiumtorecycledplastic—andenergyefficiency.

Intherimproductionexample,themostpromisingleversfocusonsmeltingaluminumwithrenewableenergyandincreasingtheshareofrecycled

aluminum.Butadditionalleversfocusontier-1suppliers,suchasreducingenergyuseduringthepaintingprocess.ExamplesfromAsiansuppliersshowthatseveraloftheselevers,includingtheshifttoadifferentaluminumsupplierwithloweremissionlevels,couldbeachievableatthesameorevenlowercost,whileatthesametimereducingemissionsbymorethan50percent.

TodecideontherightcostandCO2leverstopursue,thesavingpotentialofcarbonreductionneedstobefactoredintoenablefact-baseddecisionmaking.Includingacarbonpriceintotheaccountinghelpstodetermineholisticallyifacostreductionthatcausesanincreaseofcarbon—oracarbondecreasethatcausesanincreaseincost—istherightthingtodo.Focusingsolelyoncostandcarbonreductioninequalmeasurelimitsthepotentialforbigstepstowardzero-carbonproducts(Exhibit3).

Exhibit3

Whilesomedecarbonizationleversarecostly,othersreducebothcostandemissions.

Abatementpotentialvsabatementcostofmaterials

Abatement

cost,1$per

metricton

ofCO?

800

400

0

–300

Steel

Aluminum

Alumina

PolypropylenePolyethylenePolyamide6Glass

Battery

Rubber

01018

Abatementpotential,millionsofmetrictonsofCO?peryear

1Internal-combustion-enginevehicle,allcarbonreductionlevers,2030estimate.

Source:McKinseyanalysis

Masteringthedualmission:Carbonandcostsavings5

Definetheimplementationstrategy.Next,theidentifiedleverscanbeevaluatedandprioritizedregardingbothcostandCO2emissionimpacts,aswellasotherrelevantimplicationssuchasqualityandavailabilityofsupply.TheCO2effectofeachproductcanbeunderstoodbydrawingonraw-materialanalysis,regional-specificemissionfactors,processsteps,andinternalandexternallogistics,alongsidethepartspriceandinvestmenteffort.

Basedontheseinsights,implementationstrategiescanfollowanumberofdifferentroutes.Componentscanberedesignedthroughtechnicalchanges,orOEMscanlooktocollaboratewithexistingsuppliersonchangestoprocessesormaterials.Wheretheseroutesproveunfeasible,anoverallswitchinmaterialstrategyorsuppliermaybeneeded.

Thekeyareasoffocusforimplementationincludehowtohandlesuppliernegotiationsandhowtoimplementanytechnicalchangesaffectingmanufacturers.Acloseworkingrelationshipbetweenmanufacturersandsupplierscanhelpencourageashifttoalternativeenergysourcesandmakesuresupplieroperationsrunasefficientlyaspossible.

Whereatechnicalchangeisrequired,carmanufacturersmayneedtocreateaplantoredesignandvalidatepotentialtoolchangeswithadditionalcostsavingsinmind.Establishingthefeasibilityofactingoneverysupplychangecanilluminatewhatistechnicallypossiblewithinanorganizationandhowthesechangeswillaffectthewaycarmanufacturersapproachandunderstandpotentialandpastsuppliers.

Implementalternativetechnicaldesignornegotiatedifferentmaterialsources.CollaborationwithsuppliersandR&Darekeyenablersofboththecommercialandtechnicalaspectsoftheimplementationstrategy.Tothisend,itishelpfultodeveloptargetedstrategiesfornegotiatingcostandqualityimprovementswithsuppliersandtohelpsuppliersdecarbonizetheirownsupplychains,forawin–winscenario.Implementationonthetechnicalsiderequiressignificantpreparationregardingthedetailedvaluechainandmaterialinputanalysis,aswellasfeasibilityevaluation,andtestingwithR&D.

Fourkeyinsightstosteeradual-missionstrategy

Thedual-missionDTVandcarbonapproachhasbeenappliedwithsuccessacrossnumeroussectors,givingrisetofourkeyinsightsthatcanhelpshapethedual-missionchallenge.

Thetimetoactisnow.Severalopportunitiesforcost-efficientdecarbonizationwillbeavailableonlyduringashortwindow:thesupplyofmaterialsneededforminimizingemissionsfacesincreasingdemandbutnotyetonthelevelforecasted.Thiswillnotbethecaseformuchlonger.Futurecarbontaxesmightfurtherincreasethepressuretoact.

ItispossibletoreducecostandCO2atthesametime.Actingnowmeansthereisanopportunitytocapturecostandcarbonopportunitiestogether.Forexample,OEMsworkingdirectlywithraw-materialsuppliershavesuccessfullydecreasedtheCO2emissionsofaluminumcomponentsby50percent—andatthesametimeclosedcostgaps.

Significantreductionscanbeachievedinshorttimeframes.Aglobalautomakerusedthisdual-missionapproachtoidentifyupto5percentcostand20percentcarbonreductionopportunitiesforanin-productionEV,withanimplementationtimeoflessthantwoyears.Fornext-generationvehicles,theopportunitytodecarbonizeproductsandachievecostefficiencyhasprovenevenlargerbasedonagreaterdegreeoffreedomindesignandsupplierchoices.

Abroadsetofcapabilitiesisneeded.Capabilitiesneedtobebuiltbroadlyintheorganizationtosuccessfullyexecutethedual-missionprogram.Thisincludessupplychaintransparency—forexample,analyzingthecarbonfootprintofdifferentsuppliers,understandingthelevers,includingimplementationeffortandtimeversuscarbonreductionpotential,design-for-sustainabilitythinking,andtheupskillingoftheprocurementteamonhowtowor