菲律賓配電發(fā)展計(jì)劃

iii

MESSAGEFROMTHESECRETARY

TheDepartmentofEnergy(DOE)appreciatesthefull

supportandcooperationoftheDistributionUtilities(DUs)and

theNationalElectrificationAdministrationindevelopingthe

2021-2030DistributionDevelopmentPlan(DDP).

This2021DDPreflectstheDUsresilienceandhard

workinplanningforthepowersupplyrequirementsoftheir

respectivefranchiseareas,takingintoconsiderationthe

anticipatedeconomicdevelopmentineachareaandneeded

infrastructureprojectstoaccommodateloadgrowthand

improvesystemreliabilityandefficiency.

RAPHAELP.M.LOTILLA

SECRETARY

Thiseditionpresentsthesupplyanddemandoutlook

oftheDUsfortheten-yearplanninghorizonandtheschedule

ofCompetitiveSelectionProcesspertypeofrequirements.

Withproperplanningandaccuratedemandforecasting,the

DUswillbeabletoensureacontinuous,reliableand

affordablesupplyofelectricityintheareastheyserve.

AmidstthechallengebroughtaboutbytheCOVID-19pandemicandtheonslaughtofdifferentcalamities,theDUsremainsteadfasttotheirmandateofprovidingleast-costelectricitytoitsconsumers.

TheDOEwishestoreiteratethattheannualupdatingoftheDDPisacriticalinputintheoveralleconomicandenergydevelopmentplanningatthenationalandlocallevelsasitisbeingintegratedintheDOE’sPowerDevelopmentPlan,thePhilippineEnergyPlanandthecountry’sPhilippineDevelopmentPlan.

Further,theDOEenjoinsalltheDUstocontinuetoprepareandcomeupwiththeirannualDDPcontainingrealisticsupplyanddemandoutlookandplansandprogramsnecessarytoprovidereliable,stableandleast-costpowersupplyintheirfranchiseareas.

MaramingSalamatatMabuhay!

iv

TABLEOFCONTENTS

TableofContents

iv

ListofAbbreviation

viii

Notes

viii

ExecutiveSummary

1

DistributionUtilitiesinthePhilippines

1.Luzon

2

1.1.NationalCapitalRegion(NCR)

3

ManilaElectricCompany(MERALCO)

3

1.2.CordilleraAdministrativeRegion(CAR)

4

AbraElectricCooperative(ABRECO)

6

BenguetElectricCooperative,Inc.(BENECO)

6

IfugaoElectricCooperative,Inc.(IFELCO)

7

Kalinga-ApayaoElectricCooperative,Inc.(KAELCO)

8

MountainProvinceElectricCooperative,Inc.(MOPRECO)

8

1.3.RegionI

9

DagupanElectricCorporation(DECORP)

10

LaUnionElectricCompany,Inc.(LUECO)

11

CentralPangasinanElectricCooperative,Inc.(CENPELCO)

11

IlocosNorteElectricCooperative,Inc.(INEC)

12

IlocosSurElectricCooperative,Inc.(ISECO)

13

LaUnionElectricCooperative,Inc.(LUELCO)

13

PangasinanIElectricCooperative(PANELCOI)

14

PangasinanIIIElectricCooperative(PANELCOIII)

15

1.4.RegionII

15

CagayanIElectricCooperative,Inc.(CAGELCOI)

18

CagayanIIElectricCooperative,Inc.(CAGELCOII)

18

IsabelaIElectricCooperative,Inc.(ISELCOI)

19

IsabelaIIElectricCooperative(ISELCOII)

20

NuevaVizcayaElectricCooperative(NUVELCO)

20

QuirinoElectricCooperative(QUIRELCO)

21

BatanesElectricCooperative,Inc.(BATANELCO)

22

1.5.RegionIII

22

AngelesElectricCorporation(AEC)

24

ClarkElectricDistributionCorporation(CEDC)

25

CabanatuanElectricCorporation(CELCOR)

25

OlongapoElectricityDistributionCompany,Inc.(OEDC)

26

SubicEnerzoneCorporation(SEZ)

27

TarlacElectric,Inc.(TEI)

27

AuroraElectricCooperative,Inc.(AURELCO)

28

NuevaEcijaIElectricCooperative,Inc.(NEECO-I)

29

NuevaEcijaIIElectricCooperative,Inc.-Area1(NEECOII-Area1)

30

NuevaEcijaIIElectricCooperative,Inc.–Area2(NEECOII-Area2)

31

PampangaIElectricCooperative,Inc.(PELCOI)

31

PampangaIIElectricCooperative,Inc.(PELCOII)

32

PampangaIIIElectricCooperative,Inc.(PELCOIII)

33

PeninsulaElectricCooperative,Inc.(PENELCO)

33

v

PampangaRuralElectricServiceCooperative,Inc.(PRESCO)

34

SanJoseCityElectricCooperative(SAJELCO)

35

TarlacIElectricCooperative,Inc.(TARELCOI)

35

TarlacIIElectricCooperative,Inc.(TARELCOII)

36

ZambalesIElectricCooperative,Inc.(ZAMECOI)

37

ZambalesIIElectricCooperative(ZAMECOII)

37

1.6.CALABARZONRegion

38

FirstBayPowerCorporation(FBPC)

40

IbaanElectricCorporation(IEC)

40

LimaEnerzoneCorporation(LEZ)

41

MalvarEnerzoneCorporation(MALVEZ)

42

BatangasIElectricCooperative,Inc.(BATELECI)

42

BatangasIIElectricCooperative,Inc.(BATELECII)

43

FirstLagunaElectricCooperative,Inc.(FLECO)

44

QuezonIElectricCooperative,Inc.(QUEZELCOI)

45

QuezonIIElectricCooperative,Inc.(QUEZELCOII)

46

1.7.MIMAROPARegion

47

BusuangaIslandElectricCooperative,Inc.(BISELCO)

48

LubangElectricCooperative,Inc.(LUBELCO)

49

MarinduqueElectricCooperative,Inc.(MARELCO)

49

OccidentalMindoroElectricCooperative,Inc.(OMECO)

50

OrientalMindoroElectricCooperative,Inc.(ORMECO)

51

PalawanElectricCooperative(PALECO)

51

RomblonElectricCooperative,Inc.(ROMELCO)

52

TablasIslandElectricCooperative,Inc.(TIELCO)

53

1.8.RegionV

53

AlbayElectricCooperative,Inc.(ALECO)

55

CamarinesNorteElectricCooperative,Inc.(CANORECO)

56

CamarinesSurIElectricCooperative,Inc.(CASURECOI)

57

CamarinesSurIIElectricCooperative,Inc.(CASURECOII)

58

CamarinesSurIIIElectricCooperative,Inc.(CASURECOIII)

58

CamarinesSurIVElectricCooperative,Inc.(CASURECOIV)

59

SorsogonIElectricCooperative,Inc.(SORECOI)

60

SorsogonIIElectricCooperative(SORECOII)

60

FirstCatanduanesElectricCooperative,Inc.(FICELCO)

61

TicaoIslandElectricCooperative,Inc.(TISELCO)

62

2.Visayas

63

2.1.RegionVI

64

MOREElectricandPowerCorporation(MEPC)

67

AklanElectricCooperative,Inc.(AKELCO)

67

AntiqueElectricCooperative,Inc.(ANTECO)

68

CapizElectricCooperative,Inc.(CAPELCO)

69

CentralNegrosElectricCooperative,Inc.(CENECO)

70

GuimarasElectricCooperative(GUIMELCO)

71

IloiloIElectricCooperative,Inc.(ILECOI)

71

IloiloIIElectricCooperative,Inc.(ILECOII)

72

IloiloIIIElectricCooperative,Inc.(ILECOIII)

73

NegrosOccidentalElectricCooperative(NOCECO)

74

NorthernNegrosElectricCooperative,Inc.(NONECO)

75

2.2.RegionVII

75

BalambanEnerzoneCorporation(BEZ)

77

vi

BoholLightCompany,Inc.(BLCI)

78

MactanEnerzoneCorporation(MEZ)

79

VisayanElectricCompany(VECO)

79

BoholIElectricCooperative,Inc.(BOHECOI)

80

BoholIIElectricCooperative,Inc.(BOHECOII)

81

CebuIElectricCooperative,Inc.(CEBECOI)

81

CebuIIElectricCooperative,Inc.(CEBECOII)

82

CebuIIIElectricCooperative,Inc.(CEBECOIII)

83

NegrosOrientalIElectricCooperative,Inc.(NORECOI)

83

NegrosOrientalIIElectricCooperative(NORECOII)

84

BantayanIslandElectricCooperative,Inc.(BANELCO)

85

CamotesElectricCooperative,Inc.(CELCO)

85

ProvinceofSiquijorElectricCooperative,Inc.(PROSIELCO)

86

2.3.RegionVIII

87

BiliranElectricCooperative,Inc.(BILECO)

88

DonOrestesRomualdezElectricCooperative,Inc.(DORELCO)

88

EasternSamarElectricCooperative,Inc.(ESAMELCO)

89

LeyteIIElectricCooperative,Inc.(LEYECOII)

90

LeyteIIIElectricCooperative,Inc.(LEYECOIII)

90

LeyteIVElectricCooperative,Inc.(LEYECOIV)

91

LeyteVElectricCooperative,Inc.(LEYECOV)

92

NorthernSamarElectricCooperative,Inc.(NORSAMELCO)

92

SamarIElectricCooperative,Inc.(SAMELCOI)

93

SamarIIElectricCooperative,Inc.(SAMELCOII)

94

SouthernLeyteElectricCooperative,Inc.(SOLECO)

94

MaripipiMulti-PurposeCooperative(MMPC)

95

3.Mindanao

96

3.1.RegionIX

96

ZamboangaCityElectricCooperative,Inc.(ZAMCELCO)

98

ZamboangadelSurIElectricCooperative,Inc.(ZAMSURECOI)

99

ZamboangadelSurIIElectricCooperative,Inc.(ZAMSURECOII)

100

ZamboangadelNorteElectricCooperative,Inc.(ZANECO)

100

3.2.RegionX

102

CagayanElectricPowerandLightCompany,Inc.(CEPALCO)

104

IliganLightandPower,Inc.(ILPI)

104

BukidnonIIElectricCooperative,Inc.(BUSECO)

105

CamiguinElectricCooperative,Inc.(CAMELCO)

106

FirstBukidnonElectricCooperative,Inc.(FIBECO)

106

MisamisOccidentalIElectricCooperative,Inc.(MOELCII)

107

MisamisOccidentalIIElectricCooperative,Inc.(MOELCIII)

108

MisamisOrientalIRuralElectricServiceCooperative,Inc.(MORESCOI)

108

MisamisOrientalIIRuralElectricServiceCooperative,Inc.(MORESCOII)

109

3.3.RegionXI

110

DavaoLightandPowerCompany(DLPC)

111

DavaodelSurElectricCooperative,Inc.(DASURECO)

111

DavaoOrientalElectricCooperative,Inc.(DORECO)

112

NorthernDavaoElectricCooperative,Inc.(NORDECO)

113

3.4.RegionXII

114

CotabatoLightandPowerCompany(CLPC)

116

CotabatoElectricCooperative,Inc.(COTELCO)

116

CotabatoElectricCooperative,Inc.–PPALMA(COTELCO-PPALMA)

117

vii

SouthCotabatoIElectricCooperative,Inc.(SOCOTECOI)118

SouthCotabatoIIElectricCooperative,Inc.(SOCOTECOII)118

SultanKudaratElectricCooperative,Inc.(SUKELCO)119

3.5.RegionXIII122

AgusandelNorteElectricCooperative,Inc.(ANECO)123

AgusandelSurElectricCooperative,Inc.(ASELCO)123

SiargaoElectricCooperative,Inc.(SIARELCO)124

SurigaodelNorteElectricCooperative,Inc.(SURNECO)125

SurigaodelSurIElectricCooperative,Inc.(SURSECOI)126

SurigaodelSurIIElectricCooperative,Inc.(SURSECOII)127

DinagatIslandElectricCooperative,Inc.(DIELCO)127

3.6.BangsamoroAutonomousRegioninMuslimMindanao128

BasilanElectricCooperative,Inc.(BASELCO)129

SuluElectricCooperative,Inc.(SULECO)129

DirectoryofDistributionUtilities131

viii

LISTOFABBREVIATION

AAGR

AnnualAverageGrowthRate

CSP

CompetitiveSelectionProcess

DDP

DistributionDevelopmentPlan

DOE

DepartmentofEnergy

DU

DistributionUtilities

EC

ElectricCooperative

ERC

EnergyRegulatoryCommission

MW

Megawatt

NEA

NationalElectrificationAdministration

NPC

NationalPowerCorporation

NPP

NewPowerProvider

PSA

PowerSupplyAgreement

PSPP

PowerSupplyProcurementPlan

WESM

WholesaleElectricitySpotMarket

NOTES

1.DUswithout2021-2030DDPsubmissions:

i.CagayandeSuluElectricCooperative,Inc.(CASELCO)

ii.LanaodelNorteElectricCooperative,Inc.(LANECO)

iii.LanaodelSurElectricCooperative,Inc.(LASURECO)

iv.MactanElectricCompany,Inc.(MECO)

v.MaguindanaoElectricCooperative,Inc.(MAGELCO)

vi.MasbateElectricCooperative,Inc.(MASELCO)

vii.MunicipalityofBumbaranElectricSystem(Bumbaran)

viii.PantabanganMunicipalElectricSystem(PAMES)

ix.SanFernandoElectricandPowerCompany,Inc.(SFELAPCO)

x.SiasiElectricCooperative,Inc.(SIASELCO)

xi.Tawi-tawiElectricCooperative,Inc.(TAWELCO)

2.ForGridDUswithmultiplesmallgrid/stand-alonesystems,theSupply-DemandProfilecorrespondstothefranchiserequirementsofitsoff-gridareas.

3.ForOff-gridDUs,theSupply-DemandProfilecorrespondsonlytothemainland.

4.Alldataandinformationcontainedhereinweresourcedfromthe2021-2030DDPandPSPPsubmissionsofDUs.

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

TheDDPistheannualprogramofDUsformanagingthedistributionsystemthroughtimelyidentificationofinfrastructurerequirementsandprocurementofpowersupplytoensurethecontinuity,reliabilityandaffordabilityofelectricityservicetotheconsumers.SuchplanshallbesubmittedtotheDOEforintegrationwiththePowerDevelopmentPlanandPhilippineEnergyPlan.InthecaseofECs,suchplansshallbesubmittedthroughtheNEAforreviewandconsolidation.

IntegratedintheDDPistheDU’sPSPPwhichreferstotheirplanfortheacquisitionofavarietyofdemand-sideandsupply-sideresourcestocost-effectivelymeettheelectricityneedsofitscustomersthatarenotcoveredbyaPSAprocuredthroughCSP.

This2021-2030DDPfeaturestheindividualandregionalsupply-demandprofilesoftheDUsfortheten-yearplanningperiod.TheindividualprofileshowstheuncontractedrequirementsoftheDUsbasedonitsprojecteddemandvis-à-vistheexistingPSAandPSAforapprovalbeforetheERC.TheyearlyincrementalrequirementsoftheDUswerealsopresentedintheprofile.

TheDDPalsohighlightedtheCSPscheduleofeachDUpertypeofrequirements,whichwillcovertheuncontractedrequirementstoensurethecontinuousprovisionofelectricitysupplytotheconsumersintheleast-costmanner.

In2020,thegridDUsrecordedanon-coincidentpeakdemandof11,706.94MWforitscaptivecustomers.Thiswasforecastedtoincreasefrom12,087.72MWin2021to17,882.77MWin2030withanAAGRof4.33%fortheten-yearplanninghorizon.Luzonregisteredthehighestdemandat8,043.88MWwhileMindanaoandVisayasrecordedapeakdemandof1,913.64MWand1,749.42MW,respectively.

Thetotalcontractedsupply,includingthesupplyforapprovaloftheERC,ofallthePhilippineDUsinthegridregisteredat11,260.93MWin2020.Luzonhasacontractedsupplyof7,505.77MW,followedbyMindanaowith2,490.43MWandVisayaswith1,264.73MW.TheremainingrequirementsinLuzonandVisayasweresourcedbytheDUthroughtheWESM.

WithregardtothesupplyforCSP,Luzonscheduledatotalof161.69MWin2021upto5,727.08MWin2030.ThisisfollowedbyMindanaowithatotalof339.35MWin2022upto1,263.09MWin2030,andVisayaswith75.36MWupto668.86MWin2030.Intotal,theDUshasscheduleforCSPrangingfrom237.05MWupto7,659.03MWfortheentireplanningperiod.

1

2

LUZON

actual

Forecast

Actual

2020

8,043.887,187.77318.00

Luzon

PeakDemand(Captive)

SupplyContracted

SupplyforPSAApproval

UncontractedRequirements

IncrementalRequirements

ForCSP

CSPSchedule

UncontractedRequirementsafterCSP%-UncontractedRequirementsafterCSPvsPeakDemand

2027

2028

2029

10,576.48

11,027.01

11,479.99

3,600.78

2,970.25

2,856.34

2,137.27

2,120.37

2,121.46

4,838.43

5,936.40

6,502.19

407.06

1,097.97

565.79

4,073.93

4,222.65

4,474.85

4,073.93

4,222.65

4,474.85

764.50

1,713.75

2,027.34

7.23%

15.54%

17.66%

2026

10,138.963,549.942,157.65

4,431.372,173.893,994.42

3,994.42

436.95

4.31%

2021

8,146.436,587.35663.44

895.64

2023

8,919.566,378.35356.43

2,184.77763.34

795.02

2025

9,718.065,296.142,164.43

2,257.48 691.401,610.83

1,610.83

646.65

6.65%

2022

8,569.296,503.09644.76

1,421.43525.80

538.35

2024

9,302.646,177.161,559.39

1,566.08-618.691,419.37

1,419.37

146.72

1.58%

161.69

161.69

733.95

9.01%

538.35

883.08

10.31%

795.02

1,389.75

15.58%

DISTRIBUTIONUTILITIESINTHEPHILIPPINES

Figure1.Supply-DemandProfileofLuzonDUs

2030

11,95825

1,131.34

2,091.55

8,73536

2,233.17

5,727.08

5,727.08

3,008.28

25.16%

projectedtorisefrom8,146.43MWin2021to11,958.25MWin2030,witha4.05%AAGRovertheentireplanningperiod.In2021,Luzonwillhaveasupplydeficitof895.64MW,whichisexpectedtogrowannually.

Thenon-coincidentpeakdemandofLuzonreached8,043.88MWin2020andis

3

Figure2.Supply-DemandProfileofLuzonDUs–Off-Grid

Luzon-Off-Grid

Actual

Forecast

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

PeakDemand(Captive)

188.02

210.44

224.78

240.04

253.90

267.46

281.11

294.94

308.88

323.09

337.38

SupplyContracted

114.17

93.47

89.57

62.65

54.57

54.17

46.17

31.07

31.07

33.07

28.34

SupplyforPSAApproval

106.35

126.51

97.01

90.91

90.91

90.90

85.90

85.90

85.90

85.90

60.90

UncontractedRequirements

-9.54

38.20

86.48

108.43

122.39

149.04

177.97

191.91

204.11

248.14

IncrementalRequirements

47.74

48.28

21.95

13.96

26.65

28.93

13.94

12.21

44.03

ForCSP

45.26

91.65

134.04

152.50

158.20

176.42

181.46

184.73

224.19

227.02

CSPSchedule

45.26

91.65

134.04

152.50

158.20

176.42

181.46

184.73

224.19

227.02

UncontractedRequirementsafterCSP

-54.80

-53.44

-47.56

-44.08

-35.81

-27.38

-3.49

7.18

-20.08

21.13

%-UncontractedRequirementsafterCSPvsPeakDemand

-26.04%

-23.78%

-19.81%

-17.36%

-13.39%

-9.74%

-1.18%

2.32%

-6.21%

6.26%

MW

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

actual

2020

-

2021

-

2022

-

2023

-

2024

-

2025

-

2026

-

2027

-

2028

-

2029

-

2030

400

PeakDemand(Captive)SupplyContractedSupplyforPSAApprovalForCSP

Inthecaseofoff-gridareas,LuzonDUsrecordedanon-coincidentpeakdemandof188.02MWin2020whichisprojectedtoincreasefrom210.44MWin2021to337.38MWin2030,witha6.04%AAGRovertheentireplanningperiod.Theoff-gridareasinLuzonwillhaveasupplydeficitof9.54MWin2021andisexpectedtoincreaseannually.

NATIONALCAPITALREGION(NCR)

TheNCRregisteredanon-coincidentpeakdemandof5,499.09MWforitscaptivecustomersin2020,whichwasforecastedtoincreasefrom5,370.05MWin2021to7,505.58MWin2030withanAAGRof3.18%fortheten-yearplanninghorizon.NCRwillhaveasupplydeficitof222.84MWin2021andprojectedtogrowannually.

4

Figure3.Supply-DemandProfileofNCR(MERALCO)

MERALCO

Actual

Forecast

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

PeakDemand(Captive)

5,499.09

5,370.05

5,614.16

5,761.53

5,951.44

6,195.34

6,442.85

6,696.49

6,957.01

7,225.58

7,505.58

SupplyContracted

5,303.13

4,887.21

4,867.21

4,867.21

4,877.21

3,955.69

2,237.53

2,402.53

1,840.00

1,840.00

640.00

SupplyforPSAApproval

260.00

260.00

310.00

50.00

1,250.00

1,850.00

1,850.00

1,850.00

1,850.00

1,850.00

1,850.00

UncontractedRequirements

222.84

436.95

844.32

-175.77

389.65

2,355.32

2,443.96

3,267.01

3,535.58

5,015.58

IncrementalRequirements

214.11

407.37

-1,020.09

565.42

1,965.67

88.64

823.05

268.57

1,480.00

ForCSP

70.00

70.00

70.00

370.00

470.00

2,820.00

2,820.00

2,820.00

2,820.00

4,020.00

CSPSchedule

UncontractedRequirementsafterCSP

152.84

366.95

774.32

-545.77

-80.35

-464.68

-376.04

447.01

715.58

995.58

%-UncontractedRequirementsafterCSPvsPeakDemand

2.85%

6.54%

13.44%

-9.17%

-1.30%

-7.21%

-5.62%

6.43%

9.90%

13.26%

MW

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

actual

2020

-

2021

-

2022

-

2023

-

2024

-

2025

-

2026

-

2027

-

2028

-

2029

-

2030

8000

PeakDemand(Captive)SupplyContractedSupplyforPSAApprovalForCSP

Fortheentireplanningperiod,MERALCO,asthesoledistributionutilityinNCR,hasascheduleforCSPrangingfrom70.0MWto4,020.00MW.WiththeproposedCSPs,theuncontractedrequirementsofNCRwillbereducedto6.54%in2022and13.26%in2030oftheregion’soverallrequirements.

CORDILLERAADMINISTRATIVEREGION(CAR)

TheDUsinCordilleraAdministrativeRegion(CAR)recordedanon-coincidentpeakdemandof119.17MWforitscaptivecustomersin2020,whichwasforecastedtoincreasefrom122.68MWin2021to182.57MWin2030withanAAGRof4.32%fortheten-yearplanningperiod.CARwillhaveasupplydeficitof43.14MWin2021andprojectedtogrowannually.

5

CAR

Actual

Forecast

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

PeakDemand(Captive)

119.77

122.68

126.99

132.74

138.50

144.37

150.32

156.23

162.09

168.72

182.57

SupplyContracted

77.70

72.20

72.20

72.20

17.20

17.20

17.20

17.20

17.20

17.20

17.20

SupplyforPSAApproval

7.34

7.55

7.73

7.89

8.03

8.15

8.27

8.37

8.46

8.55

UncontractedRequirements

43.14

47.24

52.81

113.41

119.14

124.97

130.76

136.52

143.06

156.82

IncrementalRequirements

4.10

5.57

60.60

5.73

5.83

5.79

5.76

6.54

13.76

ForCSP

3.00

7.00

8.50

80.50

73.00

3.00

3.00

3.00

3.00

3.00

CSPSchedule

3.00

7.00

8.50

80.50

73.00

3.00

3.00

3.00

3.00

3.00

UncontractedRequirementsafterCSP

40.14

40.24

44.31

32.91

46.14

121.97

127.76

133.52

140.06

153.82

%-UncontractedRequirementsafterCSPvsPeakDemand

32.72%

31.69%

33.38%

23.76%

31.96%

81.14%

81.78%

82.37%

83.01%

84.25%

Figure4.Supply-DemandProfileofCARDUs

MW

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

actual

200

Demand

Supply

2020

-

Demand

Supply

2021

-

Demand

Supply

2022

-

Demand

Supply

2023

-

Demand

Supply

2024

-

Demand

Supply

2025

-

Demand

Supply

2026

-

Demand

Supply

2027

-

Demand

Supply

2028

-

Demand

Supply

2029

-

Demand

Supply

2030

PeakDemand(Captive)SupplyContractedSupplyforPSAApprovalForCSP

Fortheentireplanningperiod,CARDUshasascheduleforCSPrangingfrom3.00MWto80.50MW.MajorityoftherequirementsforCSPisthroughtheprocurementofBENECOfortheyear2024-2025,andtheotherrequirementsarefromABRECOandKAELCO.WiththeproposedCSPs,theuncontractedrequirementsofCARwillbereducedto32.72%-84.25%oftheregion’soverallrequirements.

ThefollowingaretheSupply-DemandProfileofeachDUinCAR:

6

MW

actual

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

Demand

Supply

20

18

16

2020

-

2021

-

2022

-

2023

-

2024

-

2025

-

2026

-

2027

-

2028

-

2029

-

2030

PeakDemand(Captive)SupplyContractedSupplyforPSAApprovalForCSP

ABRECO

Actual

Forecast

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

PeakDemand(Captive)

13.28

13.94

14.50

15.01

15.50

15.96

16.41

16.83

17.24

17.62

17.99

SupplyContracted

7.00

7.00

7.00

7.00

7.00

7.00

7.00

7.00

7.00

7.00

7.00

SupplyforPSAApproval

UncontractedRequirements

6.94

7.50

8.01

8.50

8.96

9.41

9.83

10.24

10.62

10.99

IncrementalRequirements

0.56

0.51

0.49

0.46

0.45

0.42

0.41

0.38

0.37

ForCSP

-

3.00

3.00

3.00

3.00

3.00

3.00

3.00

3.00

3.00

CSPSchedule

Baseload(2022-2037)

3.00

3.00

3.00

3.00

3.00

3.00

3.00

3.00

3.00

UncontractedRequirementsafterCSP

6.94

4.50

5.01

5.50

5.96

6.41

6.83

7.24

7.62

7.99

%-UncontractedRequirementsafterCSPvsPeakDemand

49.78%

31.03%

33.38%

35.48%

37.34%

39.06%

40.58%

42.00%

43.25%

44.41%

Figure5.Supply-DemandProfileofABRECO

Figure6.Supply-DemandProfileofBENECO

MW

80

60

40

20

0

120

actual

100

Demand

Supply

2020

Demand

Supply

2021

-

Demand

Supply

2022

-

Demand

Supply

2023

-

Demand

Supply

2024

-

Demand

Supply

2025

-

Demand

Supply

2026

-

Demand

Supply

2027

-

Demand

Supply

2028

-

Demand

Supply

2029

-

Demand

Supply

2030

-

PeakDemand(Captive)SupplyContractedSupplyforPSAApprovalForCSP

7

BENECO

Actual

Forecast

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

PeakDemand(Captive)

83.28

79.54

81.07

83.96

86.84

89.73

92.61

95.50

98.38

101.27

104.16

SupplyContracted

55.00

55.00

55.00

55.00

SupplyforPSAApproval

UncontractedRequirements

24.54

26.07

28.96

86.84

89.73

92.61

95.50

98.38

101.27

104.16

IncrementalRequirements

1.53

2.89

57.88

2.89

2.88

2.89

2.88

2.89

2.89

ForCSP

-

-

-

70.00

70.00