中國(guó)稅收增長(zhǎng)的分析-重要

#【1FileEditOt?jec-tViewP廠口匸QuickOpitions-Window卜Viaw||Rrc*c||Ob-js-ct||Rri<nt||Nam&||F廠曰曰n曰||E：stie口七日||Fo-re匚口st||Sts七石||Ra-sids|D-epende-ntVariatol-e:YMethod:LeastSc|uaremDate:12/2.5/14Tim-ei22.13^Sample:19782010In匚lu-dedotosenzationsz33W&ightimgsne-rie-s-:1/X°1Std_Errort-Sta廿Std_Errort-Sta廿尸pts.ME.J曰ME.J曰

斗003110.019703ozzei11.275S2-3.1_e-=U3-O&667斗47G3-3411906O0009O.111OS0.0000OOO19W-i&igHtns-nStallsti匚s-R-s-qua.r-&dAdjust=&clFt-s-qLiar^&dS_E.ofr-e-gr-essioin：Sums：quar&dresi-dLoglikolihoodF"-statisticF^roto(F-statist!匚)o_s-yee-o?0.9741S7302OOS12&45O59-^33.1360^03&&1eO.OOOOOOIMI&a.ndepende-ntwarS.D.dep^&ncdentvarAKaikeinfocz.ril&rionSc：Inwardcrite-rionmannan-Ouinncrrt-er.Durk>in-Watsonstat^_26-7_237473&S771-*372001-15533914,0303.11.210625LJnwei-ghtedStatisticsR-s-quaredAdjljs-t-endR-shc|lj曰廠wdS_E.ofn&gnemsdonDurbin-Wats-onstatoO&&2&6-7*<3斗0.66^40.0636-3^0MeandependentvarS.C_d&pHen-cdH&intvarSum&c|uar&dr=esid143ae-.-zi1&S-5-8S9估計(jì)結(jié)果如下=—4332.286+0.030787X+0.723337X+38.47102XY123i(-3.700798)(1.646098)(6.741763)(3.411906)R2=0.976607D.W.=1.210625s.e.=302.0081F=403.5618括號(hào)中數(shù)據(jù)為t統(tǒng)計(jì)量值?？梢钥闯鲞\(yùn)用加權(quán)小二乘法消除了異方差性后，參數(shù)的t檢驗(yàn)均顯著，可決系數(shù)大幅提高，F(xiàn)檢驗(yàn)也顯著，并說明國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值每增加1億元，稅收收入將增加0.030787億元，財(cái)政支出每增加1億元，稅收收入將增加0.723337億元;商品零售物價(jià)指數(shù)每上升1%,稅收收入就會(huì)增加38.47102億元。雖然這個(gè)模型可能還存在某些其他需要進(jìn)一步解決的問題，但這一估計(jì)結(jié)果或許比引子中的結(jié)論更為接近真實(shí)情況。六、多重共線性的檢驗(yàn)(一)模型的設(shè)定表10I)UIMTITLEDWo■■民幵Nu;M1^1TETLED;;Urit,-tP..|f■E=1I7l-e-w)|F^rocJ(Ot>Je-cte||F^rint11rMame-]〔F=re-&^:eI[EsrtJmate-](f=orbcqst](Sta-tsj(R-e-slds)才L-lsU才L-lsUvmauBosirl■=!1_-e=i=is-t曰口ljmrem12/25/1斗Tim^:N巨：斗9u-B1S24日曰1.>44目-1.O-EBS□kNIB曰口XT0-OG7斗ST0.0^1400-3.1曰2斗1OO_003FxwO&5-4-49-4O.0063325.<3sees1O-ooooX3--42曰日-曰3占轉(zhuǎn)曰6S350O&3128^O-3:5■曰斗OCsVTTIcIsztt-Statistic.St-dErrorF=t-aqljSt-dErrorF=t-aqljhir&eidjLjmtedFt-a-c|ljsineUE.ofri&￡gre-ssionSljmlj曰r-edreLoqIiIce-IiInooFTotJi<F-statistic>O.o.s&sea斗1562.3-20-287.3727lS7iS.19E0.000000M&amd&p&n-d&n±xzarS.Cs_dend◎ntvsirAHaihfiffinfoc■廠itu廠i口門SdinwarscrltsrIariIHsinmeiri-QLiimmu廠HibtOljrb卜廠！mstat由上表10可見，該模型R2=0.994276,廠2=0.993684可決系數(shù)很高，F(xiàn)檢驗(yàn)值為1679.195,明顯顯著。但是當(dāng)a—0.05是t(29)=2.045,只有X3系數(shù)的t檢驗(yàn)不顯著,0.025這表明很可能存在多重共線性。計(jì)算各解釋變量的相關(guān)系數(shù)，選擇XI，X2,X3數(shù)據(jù)，得出相關(guān)系數(shù)矩陣表1111Groufzs：LJIMTITL-DWorkrfile:LJTIT1_ED::Un丈吐1&?21\[a/i&wKproc]!|[Frint][|[Fr&e^:&][sa.mpLe)[-Stieetstats][*Correl-ationXTX3-X1d-000000D&&^3S9-O_^G7Od3X209923S91OODOOO-O^7^2603X3--O_26^O13-O-2T26O31_OOOOOO觀察矩陣可以看出：解釋變量XI,X2之間的相關(guān)系數(shù)較高，與X3的相關(guān)性不明顯這表明可能存在多重共線性。(二)消除多重共線性采取逐步回歸的辦法，去檢驗(yàn)多重共線性，分別作Y對(duì)X1,X2,X3的一元回歸，結(jié)果如下圖所似表12變量X1X2X3參數(shù)估計(jì)值0.0037060.013751547.2150t統(tǒng)計(jì)量50.3846462.42419-1.484798R20.9879360.9921070.066395按R2的大小排列為X2,X1,X3以X2為基礎(chǔ)，順次加入其它變量逐步回歸，先加入X1回歸結(jié)果為:表13IJE-cquA-tiora:LJISITETLEOW-ai-Irfile:LJISIITTF口二二LJn七七…|i.：i|||Vluw||IFroc||O|\F^rl|[ISIzmq||l=rs||E.9tti-nr~)a||Latrcauzisrt||Strainsj[lR4aalcla|Di=-p-&I-1d>=■mt%Zz3rizat?Is=-:Xh/ls=-t-l~ioeJ:i_?-=3ScqLiarD=it&:12Z2B./1<4Tir-r-i=:2S:2SS=smpl?=-:1?7B2010Ime.ILjdi=-cdeostDsr~i=:3-SQuiurrtS±d.Errcart_-St.z3t.isticLc-s-41.&d：ess一呻左。日o.i-isaXUD.GH39O4&O.0213-.1O.0033X_20.540431A0-01570tS(E.SO31<4&O.OOOOR：-=cqR：-=cqi—iZ3r?-cdAdjL-i=1&ciIR-scqlj=sriE-dS.E.o"f廠u曰廠UHpjusnSljm=cqi_iDrs=-dre*sidI—口臼Iil-c&liH￡□acdF—st.icz尸rotat尸一st.=3.t:ist.iu〉a.994=1oe0e1216B6.A437■zaeosooe-ss?msme2626.I54&Ct.OOCtO-OOl^uzsncd-e-pi&mcd&ritpzs「S.ED.cdu■尸士s^n匸I=mt\zasr■AI■匚23i2uirrfaciri±s=-riomSc.biw=5rzczrit&rionli—Ianmzsm-CJljimmczriterCDljrtsim-WD±^iairi壬*1=9上14N&S3.2119@l56.eiS17SET'SF1F-aae-s1孑<37&6&o.sei3&E3Y—-641.9152+0.068049X1+0.548618X2tt=(-1.608128)(3.188370)(5.603149)R2—0.994105

當(dāng)取a二0.05時(shí)，t(30)=2.042,X2參數(shù)的t檢驗(yàn)顯著，應(yīng)保留，再加入X3回歸得0.025入=—5172.652+0.67461X+0.554494X+42.89834XY234it=(-1.059655)(3.152410)(5.638081)(0.931287)R2=0.994276R2=0.993684F=1679.195當(dāng)取a=0.05時(shí)，t(30)=2.042,X3參數(shù)的t檢驗(yàn)不顯著，應(yīng)剔除。則X1,X2系數(shù)0.025的t檢驗(yàn)都顯著，這是最后消除多重共線性的結(jié)果。這說明，在其它因素不變的因素下，在假定其它變量不變的情況下，當(dāng)年財(cái)政支出和當(dāng)年GDP每增長(zhǎng)1億元，稅收收入會(huì)增長(zhǎng)0.554494億元和0.67461億元；在假定其它變量不變的情況下，當(dāng)年零售商品物價(jià)指數(shù)上漲一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，稅收收入就會(huì)增長(zhǎng)42.89834億元。七、自相關(guān)的檢驗(yàn)(一)模型的設(shè)定該回歸方程可決系數(shù)較高，回歸系數(shù)均顯著。對(duì)樣本量為33、三個(gè)解釋變量的模型、5%顯著水平，查DW統(tǒng)計(jì)表可知，dL=1.26,dU=1.65，模型中DW=0.921995<dL，顯然模型中有正自相關(guān)。這一點(diǎn)殘差圖中也可從看出表14殘差圖殘差圖中，殘差的變動(dòng)有系統(tǒng)模式，連續(xù)為正或負(fù)，表明殘差項(xiàng)存在一階正自相關(guān)(二)、自相關(guān)問題的處理為解決自相關(guān)問題,選用科克倫一奧克特迭代法。生成名為e的殘差序列。建立Isee(-1)可得回歸方程e=0.205287巳_tt-1由上式可知°=0.205287，對(duì)原模型進(jìn)行廣義差分，得到廣義差分方程

Y-0.205287Y=卩(1-0.205287)+卩(X-0.205287X)+Utt—1i2tt—1t對(duì)式中的廣義差分方程進(jìn)行回歸，在EViews命令欄中輸入IsY-0.205287*Y(-1)cX1-0.205287*X1(-1)X2-0.205287*X2(-1)X3-0.205287*X3(-1)，回車后可得方程輸出結(jié)果如表。表15廣義差分方程輸出結(jié)果?■R_a|R—■R■"i_J=-—ifWRFR—n.M>■I■"i_i?■—>P■■"i—i"■*L?仏?■■一.「.I—B]|IahM||PiraQ||cfc||IPirliinBt||ISi.a.mn.-a||IFt-n-a^Q||||尸oirquQiG||S'fca.'tfi||sb-cfas|Di=|3i&na=n±X/=3riafc3l&Y-O.206207*^(-11>Metinod:l_◎日曰1rSpu曰「◎曰Dste:12/2S/U4Tieu:OOzll-4-Ssr-t-niole(s-dju&t-ed>:r&7&20*1Olr~iczlLjidis-cdotsse-r-vatiar~is:32aTtu■廠=3cdjlj=trm&n±=ECo?=-fficzi&rntStd.Errcar±—S±=atistiaF^rotsCJK1-O_2Q&2IB7r',JK1｛一1>了XCJK1-O_2Q&2IB7r',JK1｛一1>了X：2-O.2OB2S7(-1l>JK3：-O?2Q&207"JK3(-1?>-217150.^0-4O.O&&T1-4O.6-10670<4122-E>7B-O.Q23&S1O.1O722i5--4iS..7S7i@Q--￡>.A1111911GB.52OSO.7"&2OS^0.^43^430.0002O.O-OOQO.^3&OR-s<|umredA.nljLJ31i&izlF4-=cqLJZ3ri=-izlS.E_oTresire&sIonSumscqljz9r&cdriE-sitdLqqiIIK-elllnoodF—sctzsti工tiu(尸一s-tstl&tlc->O白曰21f37l斗斗曰.舊■轉(zhuǎn)斗S曰產(chǎn)159日-N亍日”1TZS1aoeesoo.oo-ooooM-esndep-etid-e-ntve*rS.O=匚Iupsulid&mtwarAlolKdInfocrlt-erlonSc.Inwdr^eczrit'&riomMsnnan-aulnn-arlt??r.OLJrfcsiFl-W/Z3t=口LISt.Z3t"IN”-S&凸11<3306GST-.S11II1-I743B4331T.5T1旺斗1.-1由表可得回歸方程為Y=—3758.984+0.069714X1+0.54097X2+38.61883X3tSe=(4122.075)(0.023561)(0.107225)(48.7578)t=(-0.911915)(2.958809)(5.045209)(0.792054)R2=0.992925F=1309.950df=29DW=1.129566式中，Y*=Y—0.205287Y,。X*=X—0.205287Xttt—1ttt—1由于使用了廣義差分?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)，樣本容量減少了1個(gè)，為32個(gè)。查5%顯著水平的DW統(tǒng)計(jì)表可知dL=1.24,dU=1.65，模型中DW=1.129566<dL=1.24，說明廣義差分模型中仍存在自相關(guān)，需要再進(jìn)行迭代。在EViews命令欄中輸入IsY-0.205287*YcX1-0.205287*X1(-1)X2-0.205287*X2(-1)X3-0.205287*X3(-1)X1-0.205287*X1(-2)X2-0.205287*X2(-2)X3-0.205287*X3(-2)r1Equation:UMnTLE-DWorlrfile:UMTTTLED::LJntitledX=II倉(cāng)|VIew][Firoc||Obvjeat||IFrl-nt||Ma.me||Free-z_e||EZstim.a.te||Fore-casn||stot9||Realds|De-pend-i&ntVariable:V-O.SO&2S7xVM&thod:LeastSquares-Date:12/2=5/14Time00:32Sample(a-djuste-d^:1980201OInulkJtdmDob-se-rvationsz31after3djus-tmsnt&CoefficientStd.Errort-StatiStic-尸廠cXI-O.2.O5-2S)X2-O.2O62S7*X2(-1)X3-O.2O&2S)X1-0.2O&2SZ-X1C-2)X2-0.2.O&2S7cXI-