操作管理-決策工具(3)ppt課件

1、.Operations ManagementDecision-Making ToolsModule A.OutlineThe Decision Process in OperationsFundamentals of Decision MakingDecision TablesDecision Making Under RiskExpected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI)Decision TreesA More Complex Decision Tree.Learning ObjectivesState the decision processDes

2、cribe decision tables & treesExplain decision making under riskCompute expected monetary valueUse decision tables & trees to make decisions.Models, and the Techniques of Scientific Management Can Help Managers To:Gain deeper insight into the nature of business relationshipsFind better ways to assess

3、 values in such relationships; andSee a way of reducing, or at least understanding, uncertainty that surrounds business plans and actions.Steps to Good DecisionsDefine problem & influencing factorsEstablish decision criteriaSelect decision-making tool (model)Identify & evaluate alternatives using de

4、cision-making tool (model)Select best alternativeImplement decision.Advantages of Using ModelsThey are less expensive and disruptive than experimenting with the real world systemThey allow operations managers to ask “What if types of questionsThey are built for management problems and encourage mana

5、gement inputThey force a consistent and systematic approach to the analysis of problemsThey require managers to be specific about constraints and goals relating to a problemThey can help reduce the time needed in decision making.Limitations of ModelsThey may be expensive and time-consuming to develo

6、p and testThey are often misused and misunderstood (and feared) because of their mathematical complexityThey tend to downplay the role and value of nonquantifiable informationThey often have assumptions that oversimplify the variables of the real world.決策過程The Decision-Making Process問題Problem決策Decis

7、ion計量分析Quantitative Analy邏輯Logic歷史資料Historical Data行銷研討Marketing Research科學(xué)分析Scientific Analysis方式Modeling計質(zhì)分析Qualitative Analysis感情Emotions直觀Intuition個人閱歷和鼓勵Personal Experience and Motivation謠言Rumors.決策問題Decision Problem 方案Alternatives自然的情況States of Nature結(jié)果Out-comes問題的元素Elements of a Problem.Decis

8、ion Problem AlternativesStates of NatureOut-comes決策樹Decision trees決策表Decision tables呈現(xiàn)決策問題處理的方法.決策論Fundamentals of Decision Theory有三種決策方式:在確定環(huán)境下作決策Decision making under certainty在風險下作決策Decision making under risk在不確定環(huán)境下作決策Decision making under uncertainty條件Terms:方案Alternative: course of action or cho

9、ice情況State of nature: an occurrence over which the decision maker has no control決策樹的符號Symbols used in decision tree:決策點A decision node from which one of several alternatives may be selected決策情況A state of nature node out of which one state of nature will occur.情況States of Nature方案AlternativesState 1S

10、tate 2Alternative 1Outcome 1Outcome 2Alternative 2Outcome 3Outcome 4決策表Decision Table.替代方案低中高小型設(shè)備$10$10$10中型設(shè)備$7$12$12大型設(shè)備(4)216報酬表.確定環(huán)境下的決策替代方案低中高小型設(shè)備$10$10$10中型設(shè)備$7$12$12大型設(shè)備(4)216.概率性決策Probabilistic decision situation不同情況的概率性決策States of nature have probabilities of occurrence選擇最大的金錢期望報答Select alt

11、ernative with largest expected monetary value (EMV)Average return for alternative If decision were repeated many times在有風險下進展決策Decision Making Under Risk.不確定環(huán)境下的決策替代方案低中高小型設(shè)備$10$10$10中型設(shè)備$7$12$12大型設(shè)備(4)216小中取大(10)大中取大平均值或Laplace最大遺憾中取最小.不確定環(huán)境下的決策替代方案低中高小型設(shè)備$10$10$10中型設(shè)備$7$12$12大型設(shè)備(4)216小中取大(10)大中取大

12、(16)平均值或Laplace最大遺憾中取最小.不確定環(huán)境下的決策替代方案低中高小型設(shè)備$10$10$10中型設(shè)備$7$12$12大型設(shè)備(4)216小中取大(10)大中取大(16)平均值或Laplace(10.33)最大遺憾中取最小平均數(shù)平均數(shù)平均數(shù).最大遺憾值取最小不確定環(huán)境下的決策替代方案低中高小型設(shè)備$10$10$10中型設(shè)備$7$12$12大型設(shè)備(4)216小中取大(10)大中取大(16)平均值或Laplace(10.33)最大遺憾中取最小10-10, 10-7, 10+412-10, 12-12, 12-216-1016-1216-16.不確定環(huán)境下的決策替代方案低中高小型設(shè)備$

13、10$10$10中型設(shè)備$7$12$12大型設(shè)備(4)216小中取大(10)大中取大(16)平均值或Laplace(10.33)最大遺憾中取最小(4)最大遺憾值取最小02630414100.EMVAVPVVPVVPVVPViiiiNN()()()()=N=S*=*+*+*11122LNo. of states of naturePayoffProbability of payoffAlternative iEMV方程式Expected Monetary Value Equation.以圖解進展決策Graphical display of decision process問題處理Used for

14、 solving problems With 1 set of alternatives & states of natureDecision tables can be used alsoWith several sets of alternatives & states of nature (sequential decisions)Decision tables cannot be usedEMV is criterion used most often 決策樹Decision Trees.運用決策樹來處理問題Analyzing Problems with Decision Trees問

15、題的定義Define the problem繪決策樹Structure or draw the decision tree決議不同的決策概率Assign probabilities to the states of nature計算個別情況的報答Estimate payoffs for each possible combination of alternatives and states of nature計算它的投資報答率Solve the problem by computing expected monetary values for each state-of-nature node.12State 1State 2State 1State 2Alternative 1Alternative 2Decision NodeOutcome 1Outcome 2Outcome 3Outcome 4State of Nature NodeDecision Tree.